Classic commems in a slump?

franklin200

I've been collecting the classic commems for the past 10 years or so, and have really enjoyed it. One thing I have noticed is that over the past 10 years prices really haven't moved all that much. In fact some issues have actually declined in value. I know we will probably never seen a return to 1989 type prices, but I was wondering if we are due to see increases in prices. I was reading the thread about CC dollars earlier and I think the same could be said of commems. Some of the low mintage issues could be "hyped" by dealers.

Actually as a personal note I hope this doesn't happen as I just finished the 50 piece set and am going to try to collect the entire 144 piece set. I just hope that I'm not priced out of the market before I finish.

Russ

Some have climbed as high as $69,000.

Russ, NCNE

Placid

<< <i>Some have climbed as high as $69,000.

Russ, NCNE >>



That was because of Superior's superior auction tactics

franklin200

<< <i>Some have climbed as high as $69,000. >>




I should say that I don't collect the super high grade/wildly toned stuff. I stick to the affordable grades, usually 63, 64, 65 depending on the issue.

Clankeye

Franklin--

I think the low mintage key date coins of the series commems--like the Oregons, Boones, Carvers, Arks, Bookers and Texas--have great potential. I think it very possible people begin to collect commemoratives more by short set series in the future.

As for the depressed price of commems in general, they are beautiful coins, but pretty much readily available. As far as supply and demand goes, there seem to be plenty around to meet collector needs. With the increasing certified populations it would take a major coin boom to make prices jump IMO. They certainly could be vulnerable to promotion, but somehow I just don't see that happening any time soon.

Clankeye

FatMan

Congrats for completing your set. I've been doing gem commems for the past year and a half and am at 22/50.

Slump? no. Just not moving with the "Hot" market. From what I can tell there has been very little change in the past two years. As one who is actively buying I am fine with the lack of movement. I am not feeling any pressure to buy right now and that is nice.

I agree that there is no dealer "hype" for commems. There is plenty of supply at shows and appears to be no real demand. Many of these commems could be easily hyped with the very low mintages. Some simply get no respect at all. I just picked up a MS66 1938 Boone with a mintage of 2100 for under $600. What other coins with that low mintage can be purchased in MS66 for that kind of money? I think the only place you can find similar coins would be to look at others in the commem series. I won't say the series is a deal or under valued, but I will say it is quite affordable.

Clankeye

<< <i> I just picked up a MS66 1938 Boone with a mintage of 2100 for under $600. >>



You've got to love that , Fatman--congratulations.

The other day I was looking at a large national dealer's site and saw a 38 Oregon PCGS65 for $225. That's a classic commem with a total mintage of roughly 6000 coins, in gem grade, for under $300 dollars. A very nice looking one too. Well, I hesitated and it's gone--but that's not the point. What a great deal that is. That's the point.

I think there are some real values in commems out there right now.

Clankeye

FatMan

Hey Clank

Do I hear an Oregon Set in the making? With your collecting skill I foresee a masterpiece in the making. Now that is a set I would really like to see.

Clankeye

What a nice compliment, John. Thank you.

I would love to do an Oregon set. I do think that may be where my focus goes in the near future.

Clankeye

RegistryCoin

An interesting point. But to really define the results, let's divide our discussion a bit.
I believe that the coins that are "extra" to the 50 pc. set may be in a slump.
This is due to the fact that a 50 pc. set is "just fine" for most, and the 144 pc. set is ostensibly "too much."
Please notice that if you take out of the picture, the subsets, Boone, Arks, WC, etc., you will see why.
The subsets have enjoyed a "ride" during the last five years while the other "also rans", like the Lafayette, Grant w., 2x, etc.,
have lagged behind the market. The Commems in general have done well, but, I feel that it is primarily due to the (renewed) interest in the subsets.

Bear

This static period for Classic Commems is giving us the opportunity

to select the premo coins in grade. when the interest in such coins

goes into high gear, then it is these premo coins that will lead the rest.

Do not settle for average coins. It is worthwhile taking ones time to buy

the right coin.

MFH

I couldn't agree with you more, Bear. Having recently finished my 144 set, plus the Norse Thin & Thick medals, I want to fine tune the set a bit more. The Arkansas and the Carvers were the hardest to locate in gem condition; at least finding white coins with swirling luster and slight rim toning.

The prices have inched upwards very slowly in the past five years, but when the State Commem quarters were first introduced back in 1999, I knew that sooner or later the classics would catch on again. This series has always been on a roller-coaster. But I jumped onto the set starting with the basic 50 coin set, then slowly adding the varieties and completing the sub sets.

If anyone is really interested in completing this set, there are alot of very low mintage coins that seem very reasonable at the present time. If this set catches fire again, today's prices will be a fond memory.

Clankeye

Congratulations on completing the 144 piece set, MFH!



<< <i>the Carvers were the hardest to locate in gem condition >>



Of all the 144 piece commemorative set, the 1951 Carver has the lowest population in MS65 (PCGS-graded). Lower than the Grant with Star, lower than the Hawiian, lower than the Hudson, etc. etc.
The lowest certified population of any commemorative in gem grade.

Who'd a thunk it.

Clankeye

roadrunner

The number of eye appealing coins with nice luster is actually rather limited imo. I'd guess that maybe 10-20% at most of all slabbed commems meet this goal. Most slabbed at either service are on the dullish and subdued side, either dipped out or with blotchy mottled toning. I buy all the fresh commems I run across from my local dealers and have bought 3 coins in the past YEAR. Toss in the fact that prices are still depressed and most aren't interested really makes these a buy. A saw a decent Grant in 65 today but it just didn't have enough life to buy it.

Prices will eventually get boosted just like Morgans are being boosted now. It's a good bet that within a year commems will be up 15-30% across the board. Commems will get promoted and the promoters probably have their hands in too many other bins at the moment. This is still the acquisition mode for good buys. The promotion will come next.

roadrunner

SDCollector

Well since we're talking about commems, it gives me an excuse to post these. Just finished for my type set.

OnlyBuffalos

I am really surprised that the Coin Vault hasn't jumped into classic commemoratives. They have so much to offer to a "promoter" - not that difficult to acquire (except those that are choice), are among the better designed US coins, low mintages, undiscovered, every coin has a interesting historical story behind it, and there is a wide range of possible prices.

Here is an opportunity for Coin Vault to expand their offerings beyond what they typically sell.

UncleWiggly

Commens with any of the state names on them!!!

RegistryCoin

interesting... that's all but about 20 or so.

UncleWiggly

<< <i>interesting... that's all but about 20 or so. >>



Yep. Jerry

mrearlygold

I like commems a lot!

Tom

roadrunner

The coin vault doesn't mess with the classic commems much because they would be giving something of real lasting value to their customers. They of course cannot do that!

roadrunner

mrearlygold

<< <i>The coin vault doesn't mess with the classic commems much because they would be giving something of real lasting value to their customers. They of course cannot do that!

roadrunner >>



Plus there's no "scores" of 50+ percent markups to be made unless they're mistakes in holders that miraculously went from a 66 to a 67 of course.

I have no idea who "coin vault" is so I'm not directing this to whoever they are. This is a "in general" statement.


Tom

OnlyBuffalos

I made the comment about the Coin Vault because they have the perfect venue to mass market coins and items that do very well on TV are ones that have a story that can be told about them; for example, shipwrecked coins, coins discovered in hidden vaults, buried treasure, etc. Just think what they could do with a silver commemorative coin with low mintage, with a historical background, with great design, educational for the children, short and long completable series --- all the elements for great hype.

Very few would know what the going cost of the coin was so they could likely charge whatever they wanted to.

mrearlygold

Good point. Now I know who you're talking about. Home shopping coins right? if so, they should be in jail for fraud.

Rgrds
Tom

ANACONDA

According to my recollection, the most recent blue sheet showed 200 plus signs for early commems. They're just starting to move.

mrearlygold

<< <i>According to my recollection, the most recent blue sheet showed 200 plus signs for early commems. They're just starting to move. >>




Si!

Tom

commemguy

I don't think that "slump" is a fair characterization...maybe sluggish compared to the overall market, but not really in a slump. For a while now, there has been significant price support for most issues in high grade. If one sells an average quality commem on eBay with no reserve, it will, at least, sell in line with bluesheet levels. The commem market is fairly large, and if commems were in a true slump, we would not see this broad-based price support.

For our part, we are willing to buy duplicates of high quality examples for inventory, believing that commems offer superior value, little downside risk, and great collectibility. There are a handful of issues where greysheet has outpaced bluesheet, and we exercise some caution (Vermont, Vancouver, and Long Island, all in MS66, come to mind). Furthermore, exceptional, high quality, colorfully toned coins are trading at very aggressive numbers that make sheet levels irrelevant. The "monster coin" segment of the commem market is certainly not in a slump!

The 200 +signs on bluesheet are confined to MS61-64 coins with a few issues in MS65 coming into play. In most cases these coins are priced below $100, and never really trade at bluesheet levels. For sub-$200 commems, greysheet is a much more useful pricing tool. On Greysheet there were only 11 +signs in the commem section. I was as happy as anyone to see the plus signs on bluesheet, but I don't think that they will have a material market effect.

I think Bear's advice is worth taking. There are a lot of commemoratives on the market, and you can handpick some pretty nice coins right now. Commem prices will change.

MrEureka

The number of eye appealing coins with nice luster is actually rather limited imo. I'd guess that maybe 10-20% at most of all slabbed commems meet this goal. Most slabbed at either service are on the dullish and subdued side, either dipped out or with blotchy mottled toning.

That's certainly true of the supply currently available at coin shows. It's probably not so bad if you include all the coins in collectors' hands. Regardless, I agree that there are many bargains to be had if you can find the right coins.

coinguy1

Commemguy/Scott,

Now that I don't work with you anymore, I feel free to praise your (occasional) posts here.

For you guys who are not familiar with Scott, he is extremely knowledgeable in this area and you would do well to listen, attentively, when he speaks about classic silver commemoratives.

michael

original
great to fantastic eye appealling

original white and nicely to neatly to greatly to monster toned very choice to gem to superb gem early commems

in A SLUMP?????????????????????????????????????????

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

i do not think so....................

as you cant really find any of the above in ANY quantity for sale at shows and lots of times you do not even see any for sale!! and if you do see them for sale they are sold for many multiples of sheets!!

now to me they are highly collectible and undervalued to totally undervalued now this is a more accurate statement........................


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
now the little to no eye appeal and ugly and GENEROUSLY GRADED
early commems out there that comprise 90%? or thereabouts in auctions and shows well

YES these coins are in a slump and are actually holding back the early commem market


TIME TO START BUYING THE really choice to gem to superb gem great eye appealling and original white/nicely toned early commems waiting like a rocket to blast off! to the moon alice to the MOON!

and i don't mean a full moon either LOL


michael

numonebuyer

The only problem as I see it with commemoratives is that to hype one or more, there has to be something that is "hypeable". A commemorative is a coin that commemorates and if whatever is being commemorated is not of particular interest to the general numismatic population then it will be hard to get excited about it.

Don't get me wrong, I like a few different commemoratives, but just don't see what could trigger hypeing them.

Bear

The early Commems have been hyped in the past and will again

be hyped in the future.The reason for this is the ready availability

of average and sub average specimens of each coin in the series.

The second point is the low mintage coins are available at a very

reasonable cost at this time. When the move does come, you will

see average coins increase X while superb coins, toned or untoned,

will probably increase X1/2 or 2X. The events are not material , as much

as the fact that it is a diverse and beautiful series. The interesting thing

about the series ,is the fact that the most common of the commems, seem

to be the most difficult to find in true superb condition.