Where do you see the hobby in eight or ten years?
cladking
Posts: 28,529 ✭✭✭✭✭
Do you see a lot of change? So how far and in what direction?
Tempus fugit.
0
cladking
Posts: 28,529 ✭✭✭✭✭
cladking
Posts: 28,529 ✭✭✭✭✭
cladking
Posts: 28,529 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Now maybe if I could just get them to spend them in the slab so they don't wear down.
we are due for one of those cyclical downturns in the hobby I think.
it could be in the next 10 years or so. no one really knows for sure unless
their batteries in their crystal ball are in top working order.
and it may depend on what the Mint has cooked up in future.
they do have a heavy influence on generating interest by what they do.
and or dont do.
<< <i>Like the tulip craze in 18th century Holland >>
What's wrong with Holland??????????????????????????????????
Dennis
Like VOC Numismatics on facebook
Their tulip prices in the 18th century?
I believe that unless the mint make some VERY SERIOUS changes to the minting process (ie: higher relief coins, selling more denoms. to the public, changing the designs, etc...) people like me may just get to tired of the moderns and go back to the classics.
On the other hand, eBay, Teletrade and Heritage has made obtaining coins very possible and people like me LOVE collecting coins and will just collect and not get caught up in the rhetoric of politcs.
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
2. The registry set fad will have long since ended. No one will care who had the 7th best set.
3. Local shows will cater to the low end of the market just as they do today. The coins offered at these shows will be more stale than ever since selling on line will be easier than ever.
4. Nice Pre-1816 US coins will be the province of the wealthy only. These coins will have proven to be good investments.
5. Nice US coins from 1816 to the 1960's will have only moderate demand. A shrinking collector base (mostly due to aging) will have a noticeable effect on demand for these issues. Price increases for much of this material will be unimpressive.
6. Modern US from 1970 to the present will have developed a following as a result of the state quarters issue. However, most of this following will be from collectors with limited budgets so price increases will only be moderate.
7. Collecting of "darkside" material will be much the same as today. There will be many thin markets populated by enthusiastic specialists.
Please check out my eBay auctions!
My WLH Short Set Registry Collection
K S
I do see a major change in marketing/dealers. There will be less brick and mortar shops - they just cannot compete with the low overhead electronic ones. Dealers will continue to become more professional in their dealings with the buying public and the old-time grouches die off more and more (take that figuratively and literally).
Some modern coins will have “a day in the sun” when they are first issued. Then they will slip back into obscurity to be replaced by the newest modern favorite. Some pieces like the three legged buffalo, the 1942 over 1 dime and 1955 and 1972 doubled die cents have become classics and have a bright future. The trouble is mint procedures have cut down on these types of errors and made it harder for them to get out of the mint. For that reason I think that the number of modern classics with a huge following, which will push up their prices, will be limited.
As for the Classics, the comments about pre-1816 material, pricing itself beyond the means of most collectors might have merit. I’d be sorry to see it happen because these are some of the best coins in the U.S. series. Still the supply is small and always has been small. In prior periods the demand for early coins was also limited. Now they have become very popular, and higher prices have been the result.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
1. An increase in online marketing, including higher-resolution pictures and possible 3-D holograms of coins for sale as more homes are wired for high-speed access with higher quality processors.
2. Only Brick stores with a strong, primary on-line presence will remain.
3. Prices on coins will have passed through a peak due to social and economic factors in the US.
A. If interest rates rise, American families will have less to spend on coins as more income will go toward necessities.
B. If interest rates rise without an increase across the board of salaries, many families that just bought homes with ARM's will not be able to meet the rising costs of their mortgages. Coin collections and other frivolities will be sold first, in an attempt to maintain there primary investment, their home. People with 10 year interest only mortgages will be the hardest hit, at about this time frame.
C. The resulting bursting of the real estate bubble will leave many people "upside down" in their mortgages, where the mortgage costs more than the house.
D. People who had saved and collected, thinking that they could not afford a home will sell collections to get intop a now affordable home.
E. After the rise of interest rates, the new housing construction and remodeling will falter, as will the mortgage brokers, resulting in more people out of work.
F. PRices of imported goods will have risen as the value of the dollar falls and the standard of living in China rises.
4. You will find many gold and platinum coated quarters in circulation as people try to sell the collections that they bought on HSN and Shop-at-home to save their houses. After they are only offered face value by coin-dealers, they will choose to spend them instead.
5. Much of the Big money brought into coin collecting in recent years chasing after Registry sets will have moved on, probably back to horses or stock car racing. The thrill of assembling the finest set in two years and then immediately liquidating the set will have lost its appeal.
6. More collections will pass to institutions as devout collectors choose to keep the set together rather than pass them to unappreciative children.
7. People who collected in the 1960's will stop returning to coin collecting as they pass through the mid-life crises stage of their life as they try to regain their youth. Those from the 1970's will collect action figures and toys instead, thus decreasing the number of collectors.
I would say it could be rather bleak.
<< <i>
<< <i>Like the tulip craze in 18th century Holland >>
What's wrong with Holland??????????????????????????????????
Dennis >>
Lighten up Francais. Who said anything's wrong with Holland?
where Mrs Bear is taking me for lunch.
Camelot
Cameron Kiefer
I personally think that the trends of the last 5 years will continue for the next five and beyond.
One must remember that the population of "collectors" is a diverse composite.
Some enter the hobby, others leave it, collecting interests change, evolve.
I think overall, the hobby will remain strong, and the mint's new programs will promote the long term health of the coin market, however, I think it will be ironic when modern coins stabilize and/or go down in value, while older, rarer coins continue to increase in value.
I personally have very little interest in coins minted since 1967 (the year I was born) and my primary interest is pre-civil war, with the 1799-1836 period being my favorite. As my income grows, I hope to become "interested" in 1793-1798 coins (small eagle silver and gold, and early copper) and then the later colonials.
I fully realize that some other collectors might focus on obtaining every new issue that the mint puts out, it's certainly a lot easier and cheaper than trying to find a decent early 19th century coin. Coins minted since about 1986 sure have better "eye appeal" in terms of quality, if not artistic merit.
I do think a lot of collectors of modern coins will someday seek older, rarer coins, and think, as some others have mentioned, that this trend will support and boost prices of pre-1836 material. I for one would "load the truck" (instead of panicking and selling) if prices of draped and capped bust coins were to drop significantly.
And I think this is the opposite of what would happen, generally, if prices of modern coins were to fall.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I think that a new grading service similar to Photograde or Compugrade will emerge. maybe even using a rastering interferometer or profiliometer to determine a strictly "technical grade"
Many modern collectors who remain in the hobby will move to classic coins, taking their desire for perfection with them. Gold will remain very popular and the demand for coin shows will increase as collectors realize how much they are spending on shipping.