Will the Double Nuclear, White Hot Market survive the FUN Show?
FatMan
Posts: 8,977 ✭
The past two evenings I have been reviewing the Heritage, ANR, and Superior Auction listings in my areas of interest. Two solid evenings of early commemoratives and southern branch mint gold. All I can say is "WOW!,WOW!,WOW!". I can't speak for other series, but there is a ton of high-end branch mint gold and early commems being offered during this one-week FUN period. I thought the Baltimore ANA had a strong auction line-up, but it is dwarfed by the high-end offerings at FUN.
The strongest offerings are in the gold. A large supply of the finest known are up for bid. The commems are very strong as well with 67s and 68s looking very common to anyone not familiar with the series.
The high-end material has been bringing very strong money at auctions this year. But can the market absorb this much supply? What do you predict? Is the Bull Market off to the races, or is all this high end material coming to market a sign of the top?
My guess is that bargains will be abundant. Money is flowing back into the stock market and there will not be enough collector money out there to keep the bull market in high-end coins alive with all this supply. The other possibility is that all these offerings carry high reserves and few will sell. I'll be there and can not wait to find out what happens.
So……what do you think?
And please disclose if you are a dealer or a collector. I’m a collector.
The strongest offerings are in the gold. A large supply of the finest known are up for bid. The commems are very strong as well with 67s and 68s looking very common to anyone not familiar with the series.
The high-end material has been bringing very strong money at auctions this year. But can the market absorb this much supply? What do you predict? Is the Bull Market off to the races, or is all this high end material coming to market a sign of the top?
My guess is that bargains will be abundant. Money is flowing back into the stock market and there will not be enough collector money out there to keep the bull market in high-end coins alive with all this supply. The other possibility is that all these offerings carry high reserves and few will sell. I'll be there and can not wait to find out what happens.
So……what do you think?
And please disclose if you are a dealer or a collector. I’m a collector.
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Comments
I venture to say this show will be talked about as better than the ANA in Baltimore this year.
I'm a collector.
Cameron Kiefer
If I get lucky I will be bringing some FRESH Seated material that has been off the market, some for up to 30 Yrs.
It is my understanding that a couple of the collections were just completed recently, so some coins could have some high reserves?
I hope to "Go Nuclear" at the Green Pond auction.
Robert (collector)
P.S. As stated on another thread, I expect the FUN to be the climax of the market with the summer ANA to be relatively disappointing.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>FatMan/John,
I hope to "Go Nuclear" at the Green Pond auction.
Robert (collector)
P.S. As stated on another thread, I expect the FUN to be the climax of the market with the summer ANA to be relatively disappointing. >>
I agree.
Where is it? Pittsburg
Actually I would love to see prices level out a bit. We've had a pretty good run. It's hard for me to mentally adjust to recent price increases.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
There is no market top coming anytime soon but a rotation into the coins that
the returnees and the newbies are actually buying will commence sometime in
the coming months. This will not likely be a dramatic change since it will occur
over a long period. There will be a top of sorts if you look closely enough. Ot-
herwise figure on a few more years of a rapidly growing market.
Choice means to me lots of eye appeal, original surfaces, scarce, etc. may be any grade/ plastic number not as important as eye appeal and originality.
a quick look at the Commems and Jeffersons shows some nice coins. what i see, though, is mainly grades. what's being sold are high grade coins. looking at the Commems it ocurred to me that i'm wasting my time considering a bid and could do better on the floor at the show with a lower graded coin sought with eye appeal and hopefully solid or undergraded. i'm not saying that the coins in the auction are bad and i'll certainly look at some, but they are there mainly as a result of the high grade, JMHO.
what's been a thought of mine for the past year or so is that there are many high grade Commems, MS66 mainly, which are ugly coins despite the fact that they are technically graded right. these will have clean surfaces, nice luster but mottled or splotchy toning. attractive toning on the same coin seems to win MS67. at the same time i see legions of coins stuck at MS63-MS65 which are either brilliant or have nice tone and the attendant few marks that hold the grade back, yet they are more aesthetically pleasing for me to look at than the aforementioned MS66's. that seems a better place for me to be at currently.
with that said, i'm wondering about the mention by others of the reserves being high and the coins not selling. it may turn out to be a case of sellers being too optimistic which will be read by us as the market cooling. again, i think the floor will be a better place to judge market strength. i like to talk to the dealers as i walk around. sometimes a simple "How has the show been for you?" gets 'em chattering like a monkey!! my guess is that we will hear of brisk sales in the days and weeks after the show.
hey elwood
where in the heck did that Pittsburgh crack come from?? i would consider that if there is a major Convention for Widget Dealers and Collectors it wouldn't be the fault of the location for a poor show if it's held in a major metropolitan city. for you, it's even a shorter trip and Pittsburgh probably is located more centrally to a larger population base than Baltimore, if that's posiible. it may be a bit farther from some East Coast locations, but i'd wager it's more tempting for collectors from the Chicago area and points thereabouts to drive to than the additional distance to Baltimore.
i'm from the Cleveland area and i believe the last time the convetion was here to be 1996. i know it was here in 1964, and at that time 50% of the nations population lived within a 500 mile radius of Cleveland!! imagine that. east and west coast shows are nice, but the ANA needs to get into the Midwest from time to time. going to Pittsburgh is a good start. it's a Culturally mature city with blue collar roots and plenty of night life. i think the show there will be fabulous and the steak dinner at krankys house...............
al h.
here's a picture of Black Diamond in conference with Tinkerbell!!!
I think alot will go unsold at fun due to the greediness of those holding high end stuff....So much fresh material comming down the pike at once coupled with everyone and his brother selling....
its either gonna dump like a lead brick, or take off like a dog stung in da butt
its anyones call
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
<< <i> Perhaps in certain areas, but millions of high grade modern coins are going to come into the market, as well as many rarities. One thing that many of you younger collectors should keep in mind collecting moderns, in the 70's inflation period we were buying and selling 50's and 60's mint and proof set at the silver value and the pennies and nickels were FREE. >>
Goldsaint: I strongly agree with most of your assessment, but the above is probably much
less true. The baby boomers are now approaching early retirement and there will be vast
quantities of coins and collections coming on the market. This is largely the cause of the many
auctions and sales currently occuring. There were also some sellers who wanted out earlier
but waited because the market was too soft. There are huge numbers of returning collectors
who are supporting these markets, but these people, too, are baby boomers and will be looking
themselves to sell before many years. Some newbies and younger collectors have been expanding
their perspectives and collections but most of these are still collecting only states issues and some
moderns.
Baby boomers are going to be selling the coins they've been buying for the last few decades and
for the main part that means classic US coins. There will be lots of buffalos and indians but I've
known very few people who collect something like clad dimes or Ikes except as an after thought.
More recent coinage is not going to become much more available on the aftermarket. The primary
supply will remain the mint produced sets for sometime.
I have noticed the same thing in the Lincoln Proofs.The money being bid is incredible.I was thinking of having someone place a bid for me,but I'm not sure anymore.
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns