buying a single stock and not having to work anymore has more to do with great, great, GREAT good luck than any kind of investment insight
Well, I made most of my current savings from a single stock too.
It happened to be stock in a small company I worked for. Busted my butt working 80+ hour weeks for much of the time I was there (along with others doing the same), and we succeeded in producing top-quality product that competed favorably with existing bigger players in the market.
<< <i>...In a few years Doops, your total sell out for a mere 50% is going to look awfully "safe." ... A better bet would have been to cash out some of the gold now to take some profit off the table. The real BIG money has yet to be made. But it is always nice to take a profit.
roadrunner >>
am i the only person who noticed that the guy with the brilliant idea of buying gold two years ago has only made $1540 on the transaction.
now his brother-in-law, on the other hand, has turned a tidy profit, but perhaps, as mentioned above, he has cashed in the chips a little too soon.
(of course it's possible that mr. doop, instead of being the caring, generous brother in law he portrays simply needed his other $770 bucks already and decided that since he has no incentive to wait any longer might as well get his cash and buy a couple ounces for himself.)
Now, I can look back at the last 18 months of PM investing and tell you that I am up nearly 30%. Please grace us with your vast knowledge of where any of us could have gotten a better return?
Well, there are of course thousands of ways you could have got a better return.
The more interesting question is where you could have got a similar return with similar risk. That's a harder question because the risk part is much trickier to quantify.
Generally speaking the narrower your focus the higher your risk. And buying only precious metals is an awfully narrow focus. On the other hand, metals don't have much risk of dropping to zero like could happen if you bought into one company's stock, for example
Regardless I hope you'd agree that putting all your eggs in a shiny metal basket is not without significant risk. Of course, no risk, no reward.
<< <i>but I really doubt any of them would use the word stupid in describing me. >>
heh heh, I think I told you once to stop beating a deadhorse over..... was it the Nascar flame war???
hmmm......... >>
Yep, that's true. But we haven't yet met personally. After that you can decide your own adjectives...........
I do like that T-Bird, BTW, brings back lots of great memories.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I honestly believe that Coin Collectors are smarter as whole then most people.
I have traveled many circles with my music, my previous career, I have met literally thousands of people..
I do find Coin people to be sharper then most.....
Though we argue amongst ourselves and some may think others are stupid for buying ultra high dollar modern slabs or whatever, I think all of us are very sharp and smart....
I love some of the banter that goes on around here... You cats are very witty........
(Nascar is a SPORT!)
Be Bop A Lula!! "Senorita HepKitty" "I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i> And buying only precious metals is an awfully narrow focus. On the other hand, metals don't have much risk of dropping to zero like could happen if you bought into one company's stock, for example
Regardless I hope you'd agree that putting all your eggs in a shiny metal basket is not without significant risk. Of course, no risk, no reward. >>
Yes, that's very true and certainly a major part of my original strategy. Small downside versus possible great upside.
Hey, no guts, no glory. I don't want to look back in a few years and regret not making a move where I could end up kicking myself for the rest of my life.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I honestly believe that Coin Collectors are smarter as whole then most people.
I have traveled many circles with my music, my previous career, I have met literally thousands of people..
I do find Coin people to be sharper then most.....
Though we argue amongst ourselves and some may think others are stupid for buying ultra high dollar modern slabs or whatever, I think all of us are very sharp and smart....
I love some of the banter that goes on around here... You cats are very witty........
(Nascar is a SPORT!) >>
I agree with you ALMOST word for word. Nascar is an activity. Lucy, I drive high performance cars as a hobby and yes, at the track. I'm very confident I could beat a Nascar car in a drag race and probably even on an oval and I'm street legal.
No, I don't have delusions of grandeur, they have limitations to keep it safe and competitive and if those restrictions were gone, I'd get wiped out, I know that. Still, it's an activity.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>...In a few years Doops, your total sell out for a mere 50% is going to look awfully "safe." ... A better bet would have been to cash out some of the gold now to take some profit off the table. The real BIG money has yet to be made. But it is always nice to take a profit.
roadrunner >>
am i the only person who noticed that the guy with the brilliant idea of buying gold two years ago has only made $1540 on the transaction.
now his brother-in-law, on the other hand, has turned a tidy profit, but perhaps, as mentioned above, he has cashed in the chips a little too soon.
(of course it's possible that mr. doop, instead of being the caring, generous brother in law he portrays simply needed his other $770 bucks already and decided that since he has no incentive to wait any longer might as well get his cash and buy a couple ounces for himself.)
z >>
Ah Zenny, you remember the old Doops. So do I, What caught my eye was in the thread title...........SUCKERS! As Al Gore once said, a leopard doesn't change it's stripes.............
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Dupe could still convince his bro-in-law to get back into gold. Wouldn't that be something?!
I think that's what I'd do, as an investor or as an advisor.
PS: before anyone starts flaming me, I realize everyone's situation is different, and yes, I was (no longer current) NASD licensed and bonded.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Your account balance doesn't know or care which investments are on the "good" list and which are on the "bad" list. In 2001 and 2002 I'm sure I was "bad" for shorting the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and SOX (sorry Lucy, but it was each man... errr, investor.... for themselves).
But it was a blast making money in a market decline! Toughest part was keeping my mouth shut, because everyone around me was Long Growth Stocks and they were getting pounded while I was making enough for a new car.
And to think - as I drive it around, that car does not even know I did it wrong............
Interesting strategies and I guess it's not so much a matter of one being right or wrong but knowing(excuse me for stating what is probably the obvious again) when to employ which strategy (with a little luck mixed in right Lucy ).
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
I didn't read much of the thread, but I had to chuckle. If you want to speculate, you're far better off buying California real estate at an attractive location and forget about precious metals altogether. Just pick a nice Los Angeles zip code & look at trends for the last 25 years & compare it with gold.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I just discussed the real estate issue in southern Calif (LA) with a friend of mine. His house has tripled in 6 years and it's hotter than ever. If this is not a bubble waiting for a place to burst I don't know what is. But as long as people are dying to stay in LA, the price should hold. Nothing keeps going up. And just when everybody is recommending it....is the time to get out.
Lucy, if you want to drive that classic for 5000 miles a year, American Collectors has an easy policy extension that is pro-rated. They may even allow you to go higher if you say pretty please. I did that one year when I drove my roadrunner convertible for about 5500 miles one summer. Many classic cars, and esp muscle cars like Dodge, Plymouth and Chevy had essentially doubled in price over the past 5-7 years. I still regret selling my 1970 Challenger RT 440-6 pack beast in late 1996 (bottom of the market) for $19,500. The current owner has turned down $45K on it and tells me has been offered in the 50's on it. Big block Plymouth Cudas (esp converts and multi-carb cars) have done fabulously well. Your average small block muscle car or lower cube big block has gone up maybe 50%. Hemi cars have done very well as have convertibles. Like with coins, it's cubes, eye-appeal, rarity, and popularity. Green cars are a tough sell. Cars are tougher to fit in your safe deposit box and they require lots of TLC.
I apologize for not having read all of each and every post in this thread, but I see support for gold at $380 and resistance at $430 or so. Until it breaks out of this range, I'm a buyer at $380-385 and a seller at $420-430. Just a thought from a long-time trader (though not too much in gold!)
Mike
Coppernicus
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
Here is a little food for thought just published today. For those that have most of your assets in paper please keep in mind that if you ever do see any real gains, the paper will just not buy much as this inflation continues. All of these news statements of "we have no inflation in the economy" is for the sheep, don't be a sheep. In looking at all of the investment markets of today I think those of us that are hedging with Gold numismatic coins could not be in a better place.
By Barry Downs and Bill Matlack
It is hard to find a government economist, central banker, or private mainstream economist in any country today, who shows the slightest concern for the most vital function of money, which is its store-of-value aspect. The disregard of governments for money’s store-of-value and the resulting reduction in purchasing power is illuminated by comparing the cost of a typical market basket of goods and services over the past century in terms of the 1900 US dollar. Cost of a $1000 market basket of Goods and Services(based on CPI) in 1900 US dollar terms:
* US Federal Reserve System Established Cumulative inflation in the dollar over the past century has been staggering, especially the surge in the inflation rate from the 1970s to the present. The progression of inflation has clearly coincided with the staged elimination of gold and its discipline from the monetary system, which was completed over a 70-year period, begun early in the 20th century:
Interesting point, GOLDSAINT, but the CPI can be misleading if you ignore changes in the basket of goods and services. For example, a gallon of gasoline costs much more today than in say, 1950, but the miles per gallon our cars get is much higher on average than 50 years ago. There are many, many similar examples that cause difficulty in these kind of purchasing power comparisons.
Your broader point of "a store of value" is still valid though.
Mike
Coppernicus
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
People worked for $1 a day then some for probably less, and now Americans make well over $40 per day at mininmum wage. As the cost of living has risen so has the average wage. A crude analysis is that the basket has gone up 21 times versus wages rising 40 times.
If I say something in the woods, and my wife isn't around. Am I still wrong?
No one knows the future. The market could come crashing down and all could lose everything or the market could boom to levels never seen. To me it's best to be thankful for what you have and enjoy the fruits of your labours
The 19th Annual Report of the Commissioner of Labor gives the average male wages for a variety of mostly skilled occupations. Below is a selection of Chicago hourly wages and hours worked per week for the year 1900: Bricklayers $.50--46.3 hr. Hod Carriers $.25--48.0 hr. Construction Laborers $.17--60.0 hr. Plasterers $.50--44.0 hr. Boiler Makers $.27--54.1 hr. Foundry Laborers $.16--56.0 hr. Machine Woodworkers $.25--54.5 hr. Newspaper Compositors $.36--54.0 hr.
Ok I was a little off, minimum wage appears to be .16 cents per hour or $1.60 for a ten hour day. If todays burger flipper works ten hours he gets $5.15 per hour or $51.50. So it is 32.18 times higher then the lowest paying job from that article. I said crude, it was close but now we have some facts. Of course my assumption is relying on that article.
If I say something in the woods, and my wife isn't around. Am I still wrong?
Comments
Well, I made most of my current savings from a single stock too.
It happened to be stock in a small company I worked for. Busted my butt working 80+ hour weeks for much of the time I was there (along with others doing the same), and we succeeded in producing top-quality product that competed favorably with existing bigger players in the market.
Just lucky, I guess.
<< <i>but I really doubt any of them would use the word stupid in describing me. >>
heh heh, I think I told you once to stop beating a deadhorse over..... was it the Nascar flame war???
hmmm.........
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>...In a few years Doops, your total sell out for a mere 50% is going to look awfully "safe." ... A better bet would have been to cash out some of the gold now to take some profit off the table. The real BIG money has yet to be made. But it is always nice to take a profit.
roadrunner >>
am i the only person who noticed that the guy with the brilliant idea of buying gold two years ago has only made $1540 on the transaction.
now his brother-in-law, on the other hand, has turned a tidy profit, but perhaps, as mentioned above, he has cashed in the chips a little too soon.
(of course it's possible that mr. doop, instead of being the caring, generous brother in law he portrays simply needed his other $770 bucks already and decided that since he has no incentive to wait any longer might as well get his cash and buy a couple ounces for himself.)
z
BUY INTEL!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
i love pancakes
I'm hungry!
just read some seafood thread in the open forum... its all their fault!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Well, there are of course thousands of ways you could have got a better return.
The more interesting question is where you could have got a similar return with similar risk. That's a harder question because the risk part is much trickier to quantify.
Generally speaking the narrower your focus the higher your risk. And buying only precious metals is an awfully narrow focus. On the other hand, metals don't have much risk of dropping to zero like could happen if you bought into one company's stock, for example
Regardless I hope you'd agree that putting all your eggs in a shiny metal basket is not without significant risk. Of course, no risk, no reward.
<< <i>
<< <i>but I really doubt any of them would use the word stupid in describing me. >>
heh heh, I think I told you once to stop beating a deadhorse over..... was it the Nascar flame war???
hmmm......... >>
Yep, that's true. But we haven't yet met personally. After that you can decide your own adjectives...........
I do like that T-Bird, BTW, brings back lots of great memories.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>HEY! Thats hitting in the Frankies!
>>
i know they make silver dollar pancakes, didn't realize they made Frankies....
Hasn't such real yellow gold outperformed the gold gold?
Also the part that impresses me is how cheap insurance is to drive those things? Makes me want to only own junker classic ones??????????
I honestly believe that Coin Collectors are smarter as whole then most people.
I have traveled many circles with my music, my previous career, I have met literally thousands of people..
I do find Coin people to be sharper then most.....
Though we argue amongst ourselves and some may think others are stupid for buying ultra high dollar modern slabs or whatever,
I think all of us are very sharp and smart....
I love some of the banter that goes on around here... You cats are very witty........
(Nascar is a SPORT!)
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i> And buying only precious metals is an awfully narrow focus. On the other hand, metals don't have much risk of dropping to zero like could happen if you bought into one company's stock, for example
Regardless I hope you'd agree that putting all your eggs in a shiny metal basket is not without significant risk. Of course, no risk, no reward.
Yes, that's very true and certainly a major part of my original strategy. Small downside versus possible great upside.
Hey, no guts, no glory. I don't want to look back in a few years and regret not making a move where I could end up kicking myself for the rest of my life.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
How much have those classics gone up in the last two years?
<< <i>I don't think your stupid, in fact,
I honestly believe that Coin Collectors are smarter as whole then most people.
I have traveled many circles with my music, my previous career, I have met literally thousands of people..
I do find Coin people to be sharper then most.....
Though we argue amongst ourselves and some may think others are stupid for buying ultra high dollar modern slabs or whatever,
I think all of us are very sharp and smart....
I love some of the banter that goes on around here... You cats are very witty........
(Nascar is a SPORT!) >>
I agree with you ALMOST word for word. Nascar is an activity. Lucy, I drive high performance cars as a hobby and yes, at the track. I'm very confident I could beat a Nascar car in a drag race and probably even on an oval and I'm street legal.
No, I don't have delusions of grandeur, they have limitations to keep it safe and competitive and if those restrictions were gone, I'd get wiped out, I know that. Still, it's an activity.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
My street 56 Chevy I pay 19 dollars a month and its insured for 20k, full coverage, but I can only out 3k miles a year...
the TBird, I just have liability on it which is the minimum in New Mexico... It is $250 every 6 months....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>Nascar is an activity >>
Your beating a deadhorse again!!!!!
just kidding......
Go Dale Jr.!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>
<< <i>...In a few years Doops, your total sell out for a mere 50% is going to look awfully "safe." ... A better bet would have been to cash out some of the gold now to take some profit off the table. The real BIG money has yet to be made. But it is always nice to take a profit.
roadrunner >>
am i the only person who noticed that the guy with the brilliant idea of buying gold two years ago has only made $1540 on the transaction.
now his brother-in-law, on the other hand, has turned a tidy profit, but perhaps, as mentioned above, he has cashed in the chips a little too soon.
(of course it's possible that mr. doop, instead of being the caring, generous brother in law he portrays simply needed his other $770 bucks already and decided that since he has no incentive to wait any longer might as well get his cash and buy a couple ounces for himself.)
z >>
Ah Zenny, you remember the old Doops. So do I, What caught my eye was in the thread title...........SUCKERS! As Al Gore once said, a leopard doesn't change it's stripes.............
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I think that's what I'd do, as an investor or as an advisor.
PS: before anyone starts flaming me, I realize everyone's situation is different, and yes, I was (no longer current) NASD licensed and bonded.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>PS: before anyone starts flaming me >>
Shucks, I was about to heave some fireballs!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Your account balance doesn't know or care which investments are on the "good" list and which are on the "bad" list. In 2001 and 2002 I'm sure I was "bad" for shorting the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and SOX (sorry Lucy, but it was each man... errr, investor.... for themselves).
But it was a blast making money in a market decline! Toughest part was keeping my mouth shut, because everyone around me was Long Growth Stocks and they were getting pounded while I was making enough for a new car.
And to think - as I drive it around, that car does not even know I did it wrong............
GOLD HAS TICKED DOWN
AAAAIIIIEEEEE
Russ, NCNE
The end is near.
Cameron Kiefer
pmh - you could not be more correct!
Owning growth stocks going into a Recession = your account is gonna get hit by a train!
Owning growth stocks coming out of a Recession = your account is gonna fly with the eagles!
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I just discussed the real estate issue in southern Calif (LA) with a friend of mine. His house has tripled in 6 years and it's hotter than ever. If this is not a bubble waiting for a place to burst I don't know what is. But as long as people are dying to stay in LA, the price should hold. Nothing keeps going up. And just when everybody is recommending it....is the time to get out.
Lucy, if you want to drive that classic for 5000 miles a year, American Collectors has an easy policy extension that is pro-rated.
They may even allow you to go higher if you say pretty please.
I did that one year when I drove my roadrunner convertible for about 5500 miles one summer. Many classic cars, and esp muscle cars like Dodge, Plymouth and Chevy had essentially doubled in price over the past 5-7 years. I still regret selling my 1970 Challenger RT 440-6 pack beast in late 1996 (bottom of the market) for $19,500. The current owner has turned down $45K on it and tells me has been offered in the 50's on it. Big block Plymouth Cudas (esp converts and multi-carb cars) have done fabulously well.
Your average small block muscle car or lower cube big block has gone up maybe 50%. Hemi cars have done very well as have convertibles. Like with coins, it's cubes, eye-appeal, rarity, and popularity. Green cars are a tough sell. Cars are tougher to fit in your safe deposit box and they require lots of TLC.
roadrunner
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
By Barry Downs
and Bill Matlack
It is hard to find a government economist, central banker, or private mainstream economist in any country today, who shows the slightest concern for the most vital function of money, which is its store-of-value aspect. The disregard of governments for money’s store-of-value and the resulting reduction in purchasing power is illuminated by comparing the cost of a typical market basket of goods and services over the past century in terms of the 1900 US dollar.
Cost of a $1000 market basket of Goods and Services(based on CPI) in 1900 US dollar terms:
Years
1900 - $1,000
*1913 - $1,159
1925 - $2,045
1950 - $2,858
1975 - $5,915
2000 - $19,950
2003 - $21,088
* US Federal Reserve System Established
Cumulative inflation in the dollar over the past century has been staggering, especially the surge in the inflation rate from the 1970s to the present. The progression of inflation has clearly coincided with the staged elimination of gold and its discipline from the monetary system, which was completed over a 70-year period, begun early in the 20th century:
Your broader point of "a store of value" is still valid though.
Mike
Lincoln Wheats (1909 - 1958) Basic Set - Always Interested in Upgrading!
To me it's best to be thankful for what you have and enjoy the fruits of your labours
Mike, You do have a good point but I am not sure that oil is in the CPI any longer. It seems the Feds take out things that make them look bad.
"People worked for $1 a day then some for probably less, and now Americans make well over $40 per day at mininmum wage. "
This is interesting was it $1 per day in 1900 or $1 per hour, who knows their history?
Bricklayers $.50--46.3 hr.
Hod Carriers $.25--48.0 hr.
Construction Laborers $.17--60.0 hr.
Plasterers $.50--44.0 hr.
Boiler Makers $.27--54.1 hr.
Foundry Laborers $.16--56.0 hr.
Machine Woodworkers $.25--54.5 hr.
Newspaper Compositors $.36--54.0 hr.
source
Ok I was a little off, minimum wage appears to be .16 cents per hour or $1.60 for a ten hour day. If todays burger flipper works ten hours he gets $5.15 per hour or $51.50. So it is 32.18 times higher then the lowest paying job from that article. I said crude, it was close but now we have some facts. Of course my assumption is relying on that article.