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If the moderns where to crash and burn today...
cladking
Posts: 28,454 ✭✭✭✭✭
...sic.
Hah! There's an excellent old thread on this subject. For the main part it was
extremely productive and all the answers were pretty well thought out. I started
this new thread to see if thinking has evolved much on the subject. That thread
avoided talking about it's likelyhood.
So what would be the effects...
Hah! There's an excellent old thread on this subject. For the main part it was
extremely productive and all the answers were pretty well thought out. I started
this new thread to see if thinking has evolved much on the subject. That thread
avoided talking about it's likelyhood.
So what would be the effects...
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
I would buy some MS70s, PR70DCAMs, and other pop-top low pop (or would that be low pop top LPT) coins.
Now for the "crash" question. I would assume most of those so-called collectors would again say "sell" at a point.
Very interesting question...
..........then the modern collectors would realize the warnings about all those coins waiting to be "made" in the pipelines were true, as i suspect any major fall would be preceeded by a huge increase in top pop numbers of previously low pop coins.
Large numbers of most everything translate into much lower prices, except maybe 1909-S VDB's and High Relief $20 St.Gaudens perhaps......where the demand always seems to be there and keeps prices high dispite relatively large numbers of MS coins. A few others certainly fit this pattern also........but modern wonder coin condition rarities would drop like a stone in this scenario.......
Once again resides with Legend, the original purchaser "raw" at live Eliasberg auction. Laura and i "love" the same lady!
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
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Brian.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
A really special coin to you rising from $100 to $300 is NOT going to change your standard of living one bit! But on several of my coins costing between $12,000 and $17,000.......there's a HUGE difference to my standard of living were i decide to sell! Coins which cumulatively cost maybe $80,000, and could NOW be sold at $240,000 overnight,.......would be a no brainer!
I'd miss most of them sure.......but even after taxes were paid(OUCH!) that's a pretty good chunk of change. Most likely i'd buy a rural log cabin someplace......always wanted one of those.
<< <i>I really don't think I'd sell either way.I really like my coins,and would only sell if I could upgrade or personal finances made it necessary. >>
Once again resides with Legend, the original purchaser "raw" at live Eliasberg auction. Laura and i "love" the same lady!
didn't the 1973 silver ike sell for $200 at one point? ... about $20 now?
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<< <i>Don......there's a huge difference in trying to decide to sell...... if your coins were to go up in value almost immediately 3X.....whether that coin was a $100 or a $15,000 coin initially! (regarding your reference to the other thread)
A really special coin to you rising from $100 to $300 is NOT going to change your standard of living one bit! But on several of my coins costing between $12,000 and $17,000.......there's a HUGE difference to my standard of living were i decide to sell! Coins which cumulatively cost maybe $80,000, and could NOW be sold at $240,000 overnight,.......would be a no brainer!
>>
...and making a thousand times your money on a ten cent coin means little unless
you have significant numbers of them. ...just as the NYSE reports percentage gainers
each day.
No offense intended, just trying to get a complete understanding...
Thanks, again.
I don't think that some of the high prices for items like 1999 silver Proof sets are going to hold up in the long run. Some day they will settle down to lower levels and probably stay there. Over the 40 years I've seen this happen time and time again.
Some collectors who might get hurt from the these adjustments might leave the hobby. Others will learn from their mistakes and be more careful when it comes to paying high prices for things. ANY coin can be overpriced. Classic and modern pieces have both had periods of time when they are overpriced and market adjustments brought them down to more reasonable levels.
There has been a strong run-up on key dates and I don't believe those gains will be maintained at the next strong market downturn.
More than likely the classics would become negatively affected too just by the amount of money leaving the hobby should moderns fall.
roadrunner
The KEY difference in this scenario is that there are a FINITE number of shares
The problem with "pop top" coins (especially pop 1's) is that the potential for another to be "made" is a very REAL possibility......... I remember a story about a stamp collector who owned the only 2 examples of a particular stamp......... As I remember, it was said that he set one example on fire in front of many witnesses to once again have a "unique" specimen........ Could he afford to do it if their were 100 examples????
By doing it, wasnt he "Making" a rarity??????
I'm always leary (read- NEVER HAVE) of paying a premium for condition census pieces.........
If the Moderns were to "crash and burn", I'd say the "registry" folks got what they deserved !!!!!
3 "DAMMIT BOYS"
4 "YOU SUCKS"
Numerous POTD (But NONE officially recognized)
Seated Halves are my specialty !
Seated Half set by date/mm COMPLETE !
Seated Half set by WB# - 289 down / 31 to go !!!!!
(1) "Smoebody smack him" from CornCobWipe !
IN MEMORY OF THE CUOF
i don't think it's a question of "if" so much as a question of "when" which would lead to a rephrased inquiry such as So what will be the effects...when the moderns crash and burn...
i think the effects will be catastrophic for some and beneficial for others dependent upon which side of the high grade equation your currently resting in. it will also lend some sanity to submissions of modern, high grade coins and a bit of validity and sense to the pop report.
al h.
I also have many classics in my collection. If the prices fall on these coins (which some have) I will continue collecting as above.
Now, what bothers me about this thread and others like it is the underlying message that a crash in the modern market would be somewhat different than a crash in any market. Free markets act like free markets, whether stocks, bonds, fine art, modern coins, trade dollars, or beanie babies. It is all driven by supply and demand and perceptions of value vs cost. A crash in modern coins will not be unique. It will be no different than the crash in coins in 1989. Heck, common Morgans in 65 were trading for $500+. Today, even in this so called recovered "Hot Market" they are trading for less than $80. I see that the hobby continues to grow.
I think fair warning for anyone who collects is wise. Especially to those that are relying on their collections being worth more in the future. However, I do find these "Classic Collectors" who feel it necessary to single out the modern segment of the coin hobby as elitist. If you think your segment of the hobby won't crash then you are just as naive as you believe the modern collectors to be. I see the same warning signs today throughout the coin hobby.
edited to add paragragh spacing
<< <i>i don't think it's a question of "if" so much as a question of "when" . . . >>
I agree with the above statement. It won't affect me. Can't lose too much on my 3 year set of Sacs, which are the only post-1964 coins I have, other than a handful of mint/proof sets. Let's see... I paid $1.50 each for the Uncs and $6.00 each for the proofs. I don't believe moderns are worth any more than that, regardless of the plastic's designation.
Golf - $8,000 per year
Cars - 25% depreciation the first year
Stock picker - ?????
Gambler - ?????
Boating - $10,000 per year
Travel - ?????
Investor alerts are useful, but I think the point lost on many is that some collectors buy coins they like with money they intend to spend because they want the coin knowing well the risk. Hey, if that's not why you buy a coin, I hope your investment turns out. I'm doing this because I like it. In the end, all collector coins are priced over face, so isn't it really always just how bad do you want the coin? The market will go up and down, but the coins will remain unchanged. If a collector wants a near-perfect coin for his collection, he'll have to pay market price. If you think the pops will explode and you don't want to loose money, do without it. If you're right, they'll be cheap soon enough. If your wrong, you'll have to pay more. Investing in coins seems frought with peril. I'd rather just consider them a hobby expense. Any return is a bonus. Which plastic will be in vogue in 20 years? Which series will be hot? Will all coins diminish in value as all the retiring baby boomers cash in? Will precious metal still be precious? Will JFK's be like Lincolns and steadily increase in popularity? Will the current generation of classic collectors be replaced in sufficient numbers to cause prices to remain stable? Man, if I worried about all that, my head would hurt and I wouldn't enjoy the hobby very much. I wasted some money today! I just bought a 1983-D Lincoln in MS66 RD (PCGS) for $4.99 plus freight. I'm finishing off a set of 82-83 coins and I didn't feel like searching and submitting. It's worth a penny, and I know I overpaid.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Cars - 25% depreciation the first year
Stock picker - ?????
Gambler - ?????
Boating - $10,000 per year
Travel - ?????
hey don
i hope these are examples and not personal expenditures!! i remember a thread last year where you talked about the money you've spent on golf, ranging from equipment outlay to greens fees and travel. i think you calculated about $10-$12K and made the very pertinent point that you might be able to get about $700 out of it along with the memories of all those great shots you hit.
i sensed a little aggravation in your post and i guess you're reading a bit too much into how many collectors express their stake in the hobby. certainly many if not most collect because of reasons which are similar to your own, but don't you agree it's prudent to understand and consider the rise/fall of the value of a purchase? i really think the number of collectors who wring their hands over prices is in the minority, but we all like to discuss it.
i'll admit to infrequently checking prices on certain coins i own. i also sometimes look to see how things are with stuff i didn't buy but wanted to. ever done that??
al h.
I'm not aggrevated by the thread. I just think sometimes the assumption is that all collectors are primarily investors. Hey, we'd all like our coins to appreciate greatly. I just don't think that is the most important reason, or even necessarily a good reason to collect. I'd sure hope most collectors really like the coins they buy, and are passionate enough about the coins themselves to not worry whether the market for them is up or down this year. I know the money isn't irrelevant, but to me at least, it is secondary to the coins and the experience.
I'm gonna steal this from Barberlover's thread because it speaks volumes about our collective ability to predict the market.
I sometimes marvel at how some coins and some series have done and scratch my head as to the lack of movement in other series that are still near or at 13 year lows.
If someone had told me 5 years ago that early lincolns or high grade peace dollars could make me rich, while seated and barber coins would go nowhere except down I would have laughed. But it seams that the only people laughing at that statement just sold coins like this for enough money to retire !!!
Lets see, would i have chosen Proof Buffalo Nickels, no, how about high grade peace dollars ?, no, Early proof red lincolns, no, Early mint state lincolns ? possibly, but not with the excpectation of getting bid to go up and then getting 20 x bid like the 12 S penny just did.
I guess i'm still shaking my head at some of the series that have done so well.
How many of you saw this coming ?
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
My moderns would still be in the SDB at the bank!
Someone mentioned that if prices declined, one should buy more. The only problem with this idea is, if the market continues to decline, then one is hurt even more. I had a relative who bought a stock. The stock then declined, and she bought more. Then the stock declined further, and her investment was even further in the hole. Usually if the trend is downward, a stock or a coin will continue to go downward in the near future, until the uptrend or downtrend is broken.
You young whipper snappers fail to remember three things:
Mintages
Survival rates
The fairly small number of people in the population who would pay over $100 for coin. Believe me there are not as many of those folks as you might think!
roadrunner
along the collecting way...ive given many a deal to boardmembers, just as they have given to me.
i keep whats currently my passion and sell what isnt.
jeffs and statehood proofs are me..
nuff said
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
How many of you oldtimers thought this crash was to have happened already?
look at proof statehoods and the ms coins in high grades
i see a boardmember trying to liquidate ms69 coins on bst that no one seems interested in. sorry these are statehood ms69's
and the proof 70dcam express outta the mint shows no sign of slowing
wanna add anymore idiosyncrisies to this?
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Who would want to plunk down several thousand on coins in a down market?
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
People would rethink the fundamentals and assumptions upon which they pay for coins, plastic, labels, and numbers.
"Are there people who buy certain stocks long, that want all stocks to stagnate so they can "buy more" "at these levels"?"
Yes, and most serious investors know that eventually and over time, stock prices are guided by real fundamentals -- not speculation, hype, or hope.
I hope you're correct. But, it's still early yet to know if we're really finally climbing out of the slump...
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Yeah certain poptops c&b as more are certified & the pop increases but I consider this to be an adjustment to more realistic prices rather than any crashing. If the Set Registry and the collectors who have the finest sets dissappeared off the face of the earth tonight there would still be plenty of general collectors left to buy the midrange price & grade true collector coins.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
If the market for Ikes crashed I would buy more. I'm willing to own every single MS67 71-S at a certain price.
As someone said the market is supported by fundementals, not hype. In the case of coins that means real
rarity (availibility) versus demand. I am confident in the fundementals of Ikes and am ready to put my money where
my mouth is.
my 2 cents.
-KHayse
Certified coins was what was thinking about as I wrote my post but your reminds me that there are still millions of collectors who have no interest in certified coins. Several years ago those sets were selling for what? $6 or $7 ea? There they are bringing almost $25! True a lot of them will be searched out for potential high grade slabs but a lot of them will be cherried by collectors who want something better than the beat up ave bu from rolls that dealers sell to plug Whitmans & Danscos.
As far as being able to score lots of good deals on slabbed poptops if the market crashed- I expect all the owners of slabbed expensive MS67/68 will simply throw them in their safe and forget about them rather than taking a beating on selling a $1,000 + coin so it won't make it any easier to acquire the supergrades.
Hi Dog!
Hi Dog!
I can imagine this being said throughout the country in 1853 when arrows went on silver coins to reflect the reduced silver content. Well, I find it hard to imagine "Hi Dog!" being said!!!!!!!!!
back. Most of the cheaper ones moved at prices around $3.75 since the low was brief.
Probably the buyer is hoping for lots of really top grade specimens. In all probability he will be
either very disappointed and lose most of the premium he paid or he'll make out exceedingly
well. The quality of the '67 coins is very good on both an average basis and the basis of the
quality of the best pieces. There are also a lot more frosted coins in these sets than the other
dates.
While about every third set pulled at random will have a cameo coin, these sets are not random.
Each set in the lot will likely look like every other set in the lot. Unless these were packaged a-
cross a refill in one of the hoppers for one of the coins, odds are good that the coins will be very
similar. This is like buying one set twenty five times. If one of the coins is gem there will be a lot
more just like it. The best part is that with hat many gems, there should be one or two that are
nearly perfect having escaped most of the marking these coins are sometimes prone to.
The bid may represent the buyer's assessment of his odds of hitting this "lottery" and the assoc-
iated costs of selling them. He may also be looking for trading material or upgrades for a collection.
Since gems are relatively common in these it could also be an attempt to acquire significant num-
bers for a future promotion or investment. It seems likely that the package will be opened.
While most modern sets are not picked over to a great degree except for some coins of some dates,
this is not true of SMS's. These are surprisingly difficult to find gem now days. Likely much of the
reason is that the gems tend to look a lot like proofs and they get people's attention. The incidence
of high grade coins in these sets has been dropping for years and the percentage of sets affected has
been increasing. It's been sometime since I've seen a lot that I believed was original.