When one compares the mintages of the mercs to the mintages of the Roosies he'll see that the Roosies should nearly swamp the mercs in circulation. Yet in 1961 before the price of silver started up there were large numbers of mercs still circulating. And among these mercs the early dates (with the exception of the 16-D) showed up with regularity. Virtually all had a readable date and most of those which didn't were likely 1919's. Most of these even had a legible mint mark.
If the attrition on a coin like the 17-D mirrored what is claimed for the 16-D then all the early dates would have been scarce in circulation. Indeed even later mercs with higher mintages would have had numbers which were notably suppressed. None of his was observed. When I started collecting in '57 mercs easily outnumbered Roosies in circulation. Even by 1965 mercs were still quite common. Scrap silver dime bags are often the same coins that were removed from circulation in the late 60's. These are typically about one third mercs, and the early dates are often included. There were some collectors removing any older or better mercs all through the 50's and 60's and this did accelerate a little after the clads were introduced.
Here is why you were able to still find a few worn out old 17-Ds in your change in 1957 but not any 16-Ds
16-D mintage: 264,000 = Rare Coin
17-D mintage: 9,402,000= Common Coin
I too was looking for old Mercs in my change, though I started in the 1960s, All coins from the teens were scarce and when found were always in very low grades. If you look through a bunch of old Mercs you will find that even those from the 1940s are mostly lower grades--the dimes had a hard life and silver coins wore out much much faster than clad coins.
Great theories, but why are 1914 50C so plentiful if only 124,610 were minted. My answer is that they are less plentiful than 1916-D Mercs, but also less desirable. I personally suspect that this is really a question of supply/demand along with rarity. There are a lot more Merc collectors than Barber collectors out there and the 16-D is the choke point for set completion.
"It's far easier to fight for principles, than to live up to them." Adlai Stevenson
Popularity of a series is the key to demand but does not necessarily affect supply. Although halves circulated much more years ago than they do today, they did not circulate as much as dimes and quarters. As a result the attrition rate on halves was not as high due to circulation.
Taking the estimate of 3% to 5% survivorship rate we are left with 13K roughly. The vast majority 90-95% were worn down to slick AG and goods. That leaves between 650 to 1300 coins remaining in all grades VG and higher. If we assume the survival rate of coins worn down to slicks or AG/goods to 80% then the numbers double to 2600 coins in all grades above Good-4. Given the price of the coin VS the number of collectors looking for a 16-D somewhere in the middle would be a good estimate.
I began collecting Mercuries from circulation as a (very young) ) kid back in the late '50's. It was very rare to find a pre-1920 coin with a full date, and frequently the last digit or two of the date was obliterated. I suspect that many '16-D's were unidentifiable by this time, and many were probably melted by the Mint by 1965 due to excessive wear. It's possible that some remain in bags of 90% silver coins that people have socked away over the years, but I would guess that number to be low.
Most key date coins, and especially those that tend to be counterfeited, have higher percentages graded by the major services. I'd estimate that as many as a third of the total extant '16-D Mercs have been slabbed by PCGS, NGC, and ANACS, and that most of the genuine coins not slabbed are in the AG-G category. Just MHO.
I have 9 of em...... 4 AG's....... 2G,..........2VG,............. 1VF
Does that qualify as a hoard?
Cam-Slam 2-6-04 3 "DAMMIT BOYS" 4 "YOU SUCKS" Numerous POTD (But NONE officially recognized) Seated Halves are my specialty ! Seated Half set by date/mm COMPLETE ! Seated Half set by WB# - 289 down / 31 to go !!!!! (1) "Smoebody smack him" from CornCobWipe ! IN MEMORY OF THE CUOF
No disrespect to Mr. Bower's (who's books I've thoroughly enjoyed) but I don't know how that translates into determining anything specific about this coin. Someone referenced the 1946 Redbook price of $15 for a VF 1916-D which would indicate that at that point the coins were scarce and/or demand was high. Twenty years had passed between the introduction of the coin and the '46 Redbook with a Great Depression and World War in between so I'm not sure what assumptions can be made about the survivability and collectability of the coins that did survive.
We began with an assumption that these coins would have a 30 year survival rate based on the 1976 study. Did the study include silver as well as clad coinage? Did it take into account how different designs are more subject to circulation wear than others.
Again, we can speculate until the cows come in but the relatively hard numbers of certified coins with a generous buffer for the raw coins in older collections makes the 10,000 number of survivors a much more realistic number than the 100,000 mentioned earlier in this thread. And since the advent of the grading services and the proliferation of counterfeits the need to authenticate 16-D's would lead me to believe that the legit coins in collections being turn over are being sent in for grading and authentication (except for those diehard slab haters ).
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
This is my kind of thread. Having more fun than is legally allowed. I think we can all agree that the 1916D is a rare and very highly demanded coin , enough said. Now, lets collect them.
I look at this thread not just for the 1916-D, but for all coins. I just find it hard to believe that of the 1.4billion indian cents produced, less than 50 million still exist. They had to go SOMEWHERE. You have to remember that this is money we are talking about and that folks tend to keep better track of money than say their keys. Where have all the billions and billions of coins minted gone? Truely, I'd like to know.
Where have all the billions and billions of coins minted gone? Truely, I'd like to know.
Walter Breen tells us that the Pittman Act resulted in the melting of 259,121,554 for sale to England and another 11,111,168 were melted and used for dimes, quarters and half dollars. then our Uncle started making silver dollars again in 1921!!! coins are funny when they contain precious metal, especially gold. there is such a finite supply that it really just keeps going round-and-round from form to melting pot and back to form again. all the silver eagles are what was melted in 1980, at least part of them. very peculiar. i once heard it said that the gold in your wedding ring may have once been part of the chalice that Christ drank from at the last supper.
to answer your query, i figure most coins either wear out and get melted, get lost somewhere, get hoarded somewhere or are still circulating.
The 16D may be rare as far as total population left but there are some other dates within the series that are tougher to find in higher grades. The two that really come to mind are the 27D and the 27S. Sure you can go out and find one of these in VF or lower but just try to find a properly graded one in AU or above. I do believe you will search for a period of time before finding one. As with the 16D if you have the money maybe you will find one but not like the 16D which can be bought almost any day of the week if you have the bucks.
As said above interesting thread and interesting replys by the general collecting public.
Thank you for this thread, it is a very informative one. I myself, bought 6 raw 16d's this last year, and all went in pcgs holders. I think there are still alot of low grade 16d's to be had, but the xf and higher, are a little bit harder to find. The MS coins form 63 to 66, are out there and like was said already, if you have the bucks, you can get one any day of the week. Great thread!
The '76 study was of clad dimes only. Due to their durability and low velocity there will be very few which are retired because of wear. They simply get lost long before they wear out. Look at the dimes in circulation, even those from the 60's evidence relatively little wear. VG's are only about half way worn out.
The mint lists redeemed coinage each year in the annual report. (or at least they used to). I've never seen a number high enough to account for more than a few of the missing coins.
The '18 and '19 coins were often left with just the upper loop of the final digits so they couldn't be told apart. I believe the '19 had a lower rim and worse strike so these wore out more quickly. The '16 had the top of the six farther from the rim so the date could be told right up until this was worn off. Very few '16's were dateless. On some dimes the mint mark was also worn and this was a particular problem with the 1916. But this was 1958. Many years after collectors had started removing 16-D dimes from circulation. All these dimes with worn dates and mint marks were in much better condition in 1945 when the ranks of collectors had swelled and most people had jobs (and $15 was a lot of money). One read or heard of collectors finding 16-D's , but I never knew anyone who did. They were extremely scarce in circulation even in the early fifties.
Thanks for starting an interesting discussion and thanks to those who shared there knowledge and experience on the subject. I especially appreciate that there are collectors still around and interested in the hobby who were collecting in the 50's and 60's. They provide insight that you might not be able to find in books.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Here is why you were able to still find a few worn out old 17-Ds in your change in 1957 but not any 16-Ds
16-D mintage: 264,000 = Rare Coin
17-D mintage: 9,402,000= Common Coin
CG >>
So it would seem that if you factored out the effects of collectors, then one should see about "28" 17-D's for each 16-D. Yet the 16-D was far more difficult than this.
I know a fellow who is in his late 70's / early 80's. His grandfather casually collected bust half dollars in the late 1800's. His grandfather gave/left him the half dollar collection in the early 1930's. So, he became enthralled with coin collecting and began accumulating coins from circulation. His fathered was pleased with this and gave him $50 to go to the banks every day back in the 1930's and get the coins he wanted. The only rule his father had was that he must replace the coins he took out of the $50 ....so that he always had $50. This naturally encourged the accumulation of pennies, nickels and dimes versus half dolars and quarters.
He can tell you many stories about the coins that were in circulation from the 1930's.....he went to the bank about every day and exchanged $50 in coins. For example, he says that as late as the late 1930's; there were always at least a roll and a half of decent Indian Head cents in a bag of pennies. He was mostly looking for tougher date Indian Heads, seated coins and tougher date Barber coins when he searched the $50 every day. The guy truly has an amazing accumulation....a long with a nice collection of truly rare coins to go along with a real love of coin collecting. He quit collecting about the time WWII started and resumed (like many of us) later in life when the financial obligations were reduced.
From those days in his youth, he as over a roll of 1916-D's that have never seen the light of day since the 1930's. He admits though that he never was quite able to accumulate a full roll of 1909-SVDB cents or 1922 "P" cents.
The sad part is....I think at least....that of his three grown children; none of them have ever taken an interest in coin collecting. They realize he has a really valuable collection...it just isn't their cup of tea. So, I'm sure when he passes that they will sell his hoard to a dealer and that dealer will rationally distribute the coins into the market over time. Or, they may just let it sit for many years thinking a grandchild might have an interest. I don't think they will really have a need to sell.
By the way, I collect seated dimes so I have never bought a single hoard coin from him. But, he did put together a complete set of seated half dimes, dimes, quarters and half dollars at one time. So, my discussions aren't about the modern coinage he accumulated as a kid; but about the collections he built later on.
However, I remember as a kid in the mid 70's going to the bank every day on my bike and exchanging a $100 worth of dimes, quarters and halves looking for junk silver. So, I am fascinated by his knowledge of what was in circulation during the 1930's doing exactly then what I did as a kid.
So what? Well, I think the so what is that there are probably more folks out there with accumulations that just sit than we realize. Kid's inherit them...don't really realize what they are and don't need to sell them and think it's neat to have something their grandparents/parents accumualted as a kid. And then they just sit around in a house in a big bag until someone needs the money.
For instance, my wife's grandmother just died at the age of 101. She moved a schoolhouse onto her farm in the 1940's in order to put the overflow in from the antiques she had been collecting since the 1920's. Those antiques (some of them came up the Missouri river on a steamboat in the 1860's) just sat in the schoolhouse for fifty years never being seen by more than three people, but being protected. They've all been kept by the family just because many of them belonged to my children's great-great grandmother. For instance, the telephone hanging on the wall in my office was used by my children's great-great grand mother. These will never be sold by the family even though many of them just sit in storage.
I suspect many old coin accumulations just sit in the same manner. This is one of the reason's I like to collect seated coins. The tough dates are truly rare collectors' items. For instance; the old fellow I was telling you about had to buy most of his seated dimes from coin shops. The population of coin collectors was much smaller in the 1850's than in the 1930's. I've been enjoying Bower's recent columns on the evolution of coin collecting in the U.S.
Who knows how many 1916-D dimes are sitting around in the attic or old safes across America like his roll is? My guess is that there are more than we really think. It's easier to just let a bag of old coins sit around than it is a piece of antique furniture.
Sorry about the long reply....but it was early in the A.M. and not much else to do.
>>>If there are about 10 thousand examples left, what actually happened to the other 254,000 pieces? All melted? In to what? Worn until they literally disappeared? Buried in the ground NEVER to be found again? I just don't get how such a significant portion of a mintage cannot exist. Could they be in some box in the attic that has not seen the light of day for 50 years? The only thing I can possibly think of is that the mint recycled most of the worn coins, but I've read very little of that happening.
10,000 left seems to be way low estimate. I think more realistic estimate is that more than half of original mintage are still around albeit well-worn condition. Saw a big stack of them a number of years at a coin show. They were Littleton Coin Company's hoard of '16-D's that had been pulled out of circulation by a transportation worker in the '40's.
“I believe in intuitions and inspirations. I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am. When two expeditions of scientists, financed by the Royal Academy, went forth to test my theory of relativity, I was convinced that their conclusions would tally with my hypothesis. I was not surprised when the eclipse of May 29, 1919, confirmed my intuitions. I would have been surprised if I had been wrong.”
“Then you trust more to your imagination than to your knowledge?”
“I am enough of the artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.”
Albert Einstein- quoted in Saturday Evening Post interview (1929)
Nice story and additional interesting speculation.
The most important factor affecting the pricing isn't how many MAY have survived but how many come to market. The effective supply that coupled with demand supports the pricing isn't made up of possible hoards hidden in a grandchild's antic. Even if you accept that 100,000 16-D's survived what supports the pricing is the limited number that is in the marketplace. That is the effective supply. Given the number of certified coins and the estimates by some of the dealers that have comment regarding the number of raw coins I think the effective supply is the 10,000 number mentioned earlier.
Again, we can speculate about hidden hoards but if another 10,000 or 20,000 16-D's hit the market tomorrow my guess is the pricing would plunge dramatically.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
<< <i>Nice story and additional interesting speculation.
The most important factor affecting the pricing isn't how many MAY have survived but how many come to market. The effective supply that coupled with demand supports the pricing isn't made up of possible hoards hidden in a grandchild's antic. Even if you accept that 100,000 16-D's survived what supports the pricing is the limited number that is in the marketplace. That is the effective supply. Given the number of certified coins and the estimates by some of the dealers that have comment regarding the number of raw coins I think the effective supply is the 10,000 number mentioned earlier.
Again, we can speculate about hidden hoards but if another 10,000 or 20,000 16-D's hit the market tomorrow my guess is the pricing would plunge dramatically. >>
This is all inarguably true. But it would still be of value to know (or at least have an idea of) the actual number of surviving examples. For one it can impart import- ant information about the demand for the coin and by extension, the size of the hobby. Also, to some extent individual decisions are based on this sort of percep- tion. It also says something about the size and character of various segments of the hobby.
Unfortunately it's beginning to look like the subject has been talked to death with no clear resolution. It should be safe to say that between 3,000 and 120,000 survive.
Interesting thread...Compare with the 1864 Seated Half Dime with a mintage of 48,000 and an estimated 80 survivors in all grades. Different times and circumstances affecting survival rates...not to mention collector demand and price influence.
Which would you enjoy owning more? An 1864 Half Dime in Fine condition at $400 or a 1916D in Fine condition for $1300?
In my opinion, the half dime is a genuinely rare coin while the Merc enjoys popularity despite it's plentiful availability.
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
I'd take the 1864 half dime over the 1916-D dime, but I'd take anything from the early 1800s over both of them. Early type is my "wheel house."
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I think the more important number is the number of coins certified. Certification isn't a major issue for coins in the $10 ~ $100 range but when you're talking $1000+ and given the proliferation of counterfeits certification becomes more and more a "must." In this price range the number of coins certified is IMHO more of an indicator of how many "collectable" coins are in the market place.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
So who knows how many 1903-O dollars were released in 1964? This was a very rare coin before the release so the absolute number released should provide some insight into relative rarity.
Does anyone have any info on any collectable coin availability? Preferably a somewhat more valuable coin in a somewhat popular series.
Does anyone have any info on any collectable coin availability?
hey sam
that's a tough question to answer. many coins that are considered rare/scarce/difficult/desireable can be found within a short period and almost always turn up at every major show and even some smaller ones. i think the clincher in your post is the word "popular" because it points to the simple fact of whether collectors are viewed as pursueing a certain coin or not. the 1916-D is an excellent example of this. it has remained popular for decades!! other coins, while they may be more rare/scarce/difficult/desireable just don't enjoy the 16-D's popularity and aren't offered for sale as often or noticed when they are.
we have a phenomenon that occurs in cycles at our clubs. many members keep track of each lot---who buys it, how many bidders and the sale price. certain coins will appear en masse when bidding is strong and dissappear if the bidding is low, giving way to what else is a hot seller. morgans are always in demand with the CC dates selling for stupid money!!
i figure that's essentially the way it works in the hobby as a whole. with key dates, since everybody wants them, it seems that there are way more than their scarcity would indicate. other coins that should be easy but aren't as popularly collected, are sometimes difficult to find. maybe i haven't explained this very well, but it makes sense to ME and answers a lot of my "why" questions when i'm looking for certain dates.
One aspect that no one has mentioned so far is how many of the 16-Ds left the country.
My grandfather was in the Merchant Marine in his teens and twenties -- 1930-1935 and while visiting ports of call in South America, he managed to find a good number of circulating US coins -- Morgans, Peaces, Barber halves, quarters & dimes, Mercs, older Buffs and older Lincolns that he saved and eventually passed to me. These were taken right from his pocket change.
We know US currency and coins are used globally today, but realize it was also used 75 years ago as well. Hoards of US coins might still exist in collectors hands and bank vaults in other countries.
So who knows how many 1903-O dollars were released in 1964? This was a very rare coin before the release
I'd say that there were perhaps 50 or 60 thousand BU 1903-O dollars released in the early 1960s. The coin is still worth $200 to $300 today in MS-63 - 64, which would indicate that it is not extremely "common" like some dates.
If a find like that had occurred in another series other than Morgan dollars, the price would be a lot lower. The demand for BU Morgans among collectors is strong, which greatly enhances the market value of those coins relative to their rarity. Most Morgans with the exception of the 1889-CC, 1893-S and 1895-P are really very common coins. It's the demand that drives their prices to such high amounts.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Thanks BillJones. Do you remember any of the other dates too? I saw a list once of the number of bags involved for many of the dates but am not sure where it was.
Fifty or sixty thousand would seem to indicate that the population of 16-D dimes is closer to the bottom end of the range than the top.
1898-O, 1902-O and 1904-O were also in the big hoard. Their prices dropped by large amounts also although they were never in a class with the 1903-O. If you owned all of those coins at the 1962 market price, you had to be one sad puppy during that Christmas.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I enjoyed reading this thread from three years ago and think it is a great thread for any of us that missed it the first time around!
edited to add:
As a collector of Mercury dimes in the early 1960s, I never located a 1916-D Mercury dime. I did find 1916 plains, 1917 plains, and other well circulated pre-1920 dimes. Conditionwise, the best pre-1920 coin I found in circulation at that time would be Fine. I would find others that were well circulated with dates illegible, but most of the time there was enough detail to make out the date.
I was able to find a complete set, minus the 1916-D, 1921, and 1921-D.
Jim Hodgson
Collector of US Small Size currency, Atlanta FRNs, and Georgia nationals since 1977. Researcher of small size US type - seeking serial number data for all FRN star notes, Series 1928 to 1934-D. Life member SPMC.
So who knows how many 1903-O dollars were released in 1964? This was a very rare coin before the release
In his book, "The Official Red Book of Morgan Silver Dollars", Q. David Bowers estimates that 200,000 to 350,000 1903 O Morgans may have been released from government vaults in 1962 - 1964.
<< <i> Coins from the teens and twenties got killed because of the Great Depression. People needed to eat and put a roof over their head, and they could not afford to set aside a lot of old coins, especially coins that carried the current designs. >>
Of course not! They were modern crap, unlike the classic Sheild nickels!
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
I have a friend that has an old Whitman album he wanted to show me that his Dad had started and gave up on and asked him to complete. It was a complete collection of Mercury Dimes in AU-MS. His 1916-D in is AU condition. I noticed immediately upon opening this album that the 16-D has a different color then the other dimes. Bruce stated that he got that dime out of a roll of circ. dimes and it was dirty so he cleaned it! He said that he totally regrets it to this day.
How many 1916-D's are left? Well if you take for instance 25 Bruces from every state X 50 states = (1250) 1916-D dimes! Just a rough estimate!
PhillyJoe found some of these coins earlier this year.
His research turned up some surprising numbers for government melting throughout the 20th century. As I remember it might be in the realm of about 20,000 coins or so.
These numbers might also imply melting of 20c pieces was still going on.
I've read this whole thread and found it very informative. However, I think there are a lot more 1916-D dimes available than most everyone else thinks. At any coin show there are multiple 1916-D dimes for sale. Yes, the population of 1916-D dimes in PCGS (3,134) and NGC (1,428) holders is low. But there are a ton of 1916-D dimes in other holders, especially ANACS. Unfortunately, ANACS hasn't produced a population report in a long time, but based on the number of 1916-D dimes I see at shows, there are probably at least 5,000 1916-D dimes in ANACS and other holders. So we're at about 10,000 1916-D dimes slabbed. There are a large number of 1916-D dimes that are raw coins, also. People who found these coins in the 1940's put them in their Whitman folders and a lot of them remain there. If you go to any coin club meeting, you'll meet a lot of collectors who won't slab any coin; in fact we have a local dealer who does not even stock slabbed coins and he regularly sells 1916-D dimes and has sold many over the years. So there are a lot of raw 1916-D dimes around, I'm going to guess 30,000 to 40,000 mostly in Fair to Good grades as they were pulled out of circulation that way.
There are probably 2 to 3 counterfeits per genuine 1916-D dime, which would be 80,000 to 150,000. I believe in a published article in one of the coin papers a few years ago, the story was told of a fellow who whenever he had an extra $50, went to the flea market and bought a 1916-D dime. After a long time, he decided to sell his stash of about 300, and all of them were found to be counterfeits. OUCH!!! So in total, IMO there appear to be 120,000 to 200,000 available coins (incl. the counterfeits) out of the original mintage of 264,000.
The 1916-D dime is a coin that IMO you shouldn't consider buying unslabbed unless you are very sure it is genuine.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Comments
he'll see that the Roosies should nearly swamp the mercs in circulation. Yet in
1961 before the price of silver started up there were large numbers of mercs
still circulating. And among these mercs the early dates (with the exception of
the 16-D) showed up with regularity. Virtually all had a readable date and most
of those which didn't were likely 1919's. Most of these even had a legible mint
mark.
If the attrition on a coin like the 17-D mirrored what is claimed for the 16-D then
all the early dates would have been scarce in circulation. Indeed even later mercs
with higher mintages would have had numbers which were notably suppressed.
None of his was observed. When I started collecting in '57 mercs easily outnumbered
Roosies in circulation. Even by 1965 mercs were still quite common. Scrap silver dime
bags are often the same coins that were removed from circulation in the late 60's.
These are typically about one third mercs, and the early dates are often included.
There were some collectors removing any older or better mercs all through the 50's
and 60's and this did accelerate a little after the clads were introduced.
Russ, NCNE
Here is why you were able to still find a few worn out old 17-Ds in your change in 1957 but not any 16-Ds
16-D mintage: 264,000 = Rare Coin
17-D mintage: 9,402,000= Common Coin
I too was looking for old Mercs in my change, though I started in the 1960s, All coins from the teens were scarce and when found were always in very low grades. If you look through a bunch of old Mercs you will find that even those from the 1940s are mostly lower grades--the dimes had a hard life and silver coins wore out much much faster than clad coins.
CG
Popularity of a series is the key to demand but does not necessarily affect supply. Although halves circulated much more years ago than they do today, they did not circulate as much as dimes and quarters. As a result the attrition rate on halves was not as high due to circulation.
CG
Tyler
Most key date coins, and especially those that tend to be counterfeited, have higher percentages graded by the major services. I'd estimate that as many as a third of the total extant '16-D Mercs have been slabbed by PCGS, NGC, and ANACS, and that most of the genuine coins not slabbed are in the AG-G category. Just MHO.
Jim
What known quantitative data do you have to support your 3%-5% estimate?
Does that qualify as a hoard?
3 "DAMMIT BOYS"
4 "YOU SUCKS"
Numerous POTD (But NONE officially recognized)
Seated Halves are my specialty !
Seated Half set by date/mm COMPLETE !
Seated Half set by WB# - 289 down / 31 to go !!!!!
(1) "Smoebody smack him" from CornCobWipe !
IN MEMORY OF THE CUOF
"very popular during the depression"
No disrespect to Mr. Bower's (who's books I've thoroughly enjoyed) but I don't know how that translates into determining anything specific about this coin. Someone referenced the 1946 Redbook price of $15 for a VF 1916-D which would indicate that at that point the coins were scarce and/or demand was high. Twenty years had passed between the introduction of the coin and the '46 Redbook with a Great Depression and World War in between so I'm not sure what assumptions can be made about the survivability and collectability of the coins that did survive.
We began with an assumption that these coins would have a 30 year survival rate based on the 1976 study. Did the study include silver as well as clad coinage? Did it take into account how different designs are more subject to circulation wear than others.
Again, we can speculate until the cows come in but the relatively hard numbers of certified coins with a generous buffer for the raw coins in older collections makes the 10,000 number of survivors a much more realistic number than the 100,000 mentioned earlier in this thread. And since the advent of the grading services and the proliferation of counterfeits the need to authenticate 16-D's would lead me to believe that the legit coins in collections being turn over are being sent in for grading and authentication (except for those diehard slab haters
I think we can all agree that the 1916D is a rare and very highly demanded
coin , enough said. Now, lets collect them.
Brian
Tom
Joe.
Walter Breen tells us that the Pittman Act resulted in the melting of 259,121,554 for sale to England and another 11,111,168 were melted and used for dimes, quarters and half dollars. then our Uncle started making silver dollars again in 1921!!! coins are funny when they contain precious metal, especially gold. there is such a finite supply that it really just keeps going round-and-round from form to melting pot and back to form again. all the silver eagles are what was melted in 1980, at least part of them. very peculiar. i once heard it said that the gold in your wedding ring may have once been part of the chalice that Christ drank from at the last supper.
to answer your query, i figure most coins either wear out and get melted, get lost somewhere, get hoarded somewhere or are still circulating.
al h.
i won't even go there!!
al h.
The 16D may be rare as far as total population left but there are some other dates within the series that are tougher to find in higher grades. The two that really come to mind are the 27D and the 27S. Sure you can go out and find one of these in VF or lower but just try to find a properly graded one in AU or above. I do believe you will search for a period of time before finding one. As with the 16D if you have the money maybe you will find one but not like the 16D which can be bought almost any day of the week if you have the bucks.
As said above interesting thread and interesting replys by the general collecting public.
Ken
My Dimes
<< If it's worth doing, it's worth doing right the first time! >>
will be very few which are retired because of wear. They simply get lost long before
they wear out. Look at the dimes in circulation, even those from the 60's evidence
relatively little wear. VG's are only about half way worn out.
The mint lists redeemed coinage each year in the annual report. (or at least they used
to). I've never seen a number high enough to account for more than a few of the missing
coins.
The '18 and '19 coins were often left with just the upper loop of the final digits so they
couldn't be told apart. I believe the '19 had a lower rim and worse strike so these wore
out more quickly. The '16 had the top of the six farther from the rim so the date could be
told right up until this was worn off. Very few '16's were dateless. On some dimes the
mint mark was also worn and this was a particular problem with the 1916. But this was
1958. Many years after collectors had started removing 16-D dimes from circulation. All
these dimes with worn dates and mint marks were in much better condition in 1945 when
the ranks of collectors had swelled and most people had jobs (and $15 was a lot of money).
One read or heard of collectors finding 16-D's , but I never knew anyone who did. They
were extremely scarce in circulation even in the early fifties.
Thanks for starting an interesting discussion and thanks to those who shared there knowledge and experience on the subject. I especially appreciate that there are collectors still around and interested in the hobby who were collecting in the 50's and 60's. They provide insight that you might not be able to find in books.
<< <i>
Here is why you were able to still find a few worn out old 17-Ds in your change in 1957 but not any 16-Ds
16-D mintage: 264,000 = Rare Coin
17-D mintage: 9,402,000= Common Coin
CG >>
So it would seem that if you factored out the effects of collectors, then one
should see about "28" 17-D's for each 16-D. Yet the 16-D was far more
difficult than this.
There seem to be an awful lot of missing coins here. I don't really
believe they've been "found" but if so they're in one of the following:
Had their dates (or mm's) worn off in circulation.
Were destroyed through attrition.
Sitting in old time collections.
Melted by the government as worn or obsolete.
Melted by private concerns in 1980.
Existing in hoardes.
...Hope I didn't forget any. these are what I remember.
He can tell you many stories about the coins that were in circulation from the 1930's.....he went to the bank about every day and exchanged $50 in coins. For example, he says that as late as the late 1930's; there were always at least a roll and a half of decent Indian Head cents in a bag of pennies. He was mostly looking for tougher date Indian Heads, seated coins and tougher date Barber coins when he searched the $50 every day. The guy truly has an amazing accumulation....a long with a nice collection of truly rare coins to go along with a real love of coin collecting. He quit collecting about the time WWII started and resumed (like many of us) later in life when the financial obligations were reduced.
From those days in his youth, he as over a roll of 1916-D's that have never seen the light of day since the 1930's. He admits though that he never was quite able to accumulate a full roll of 1909-SVDB cents or 1922 "P" cents.
The sad part is....I think at least....that of his three grown children; none of them have ever taken an interest in coin collecting. They realize he has a really valuable collection...it just isn't their cup of tea. So, I'm sure when he passes that they will sell his hoard to a dealer and that dealer will rationally distribute the coins into the market over time. Or, they may just let it sit for many years thinking a grandchild might have an interest. I don't think they will really have a need to sell.
By the way, I collect seated dimes so I have never bought a single hoard coin from him. But, he did put together a complete set of seated half dimes, dimes, quarters and half dollars at one time. So, my discussions aren't about the modern coinage he accumulated as a kid; but about the collections he built later on.
However, I remember as a kid in the mid 70's going to the bank every day on my bike and exchanging a $100 worth of dimes, quarters and halves looking for junk silver. So, I am fascinated by his knowledge of what was in circulation during the 1930's doing exactly then what I did as a kid.
So what? Well, I think the so what is that there are probably more folks out there with accumulations that just sit than we realize. Kid's inherit them...don't really realize what they are and don't need to sell them and think it's neat to have something their grandparents/parents accumualted as a kid. And then they just sit around in a house in a big bag until someone needs the money.
For instance, my wife's grandmother just died at the age of 101. She moved a schoolhouse onto her farm in the 1940's in order to put the overflow in from the antiques she had been collecting since the 1920's. Those antiques (some of them came up the Missouri river on a steamboat in the 1860's) just sat in the schoolhouse for fifty years never being seen by more than three people, but being protected. They've all been kept by the family just because many of them belonged to my children's great-great grandmother. For instance, the telephone hanging on the wall in my office was used by my children's great-great grand mother. These will never be sold by the family even though many of them just sit in storage.
I suspect many old coin accumulations just sit in the same manner. This is one of the reason's I like to collect seated coins. The tough dates are truly rare collectors' items. For instance; the old fellow I was telling you about had to buy most of his seated dimes from coin shops. The population of coin collectors was much smaller in the 1850's than in the 1930's. I've been enjoying Bower's recent columns on the evolution of coin collecting in the U.S.
Who knows how many 1916-D dimes are sitting around in the attic or old safes across America like his roll is? My guess is that there are more than we really think. It's easier to just let a bag of old coins sit around than it is a piece of antique furniture.
Sorry about the long reply....but it was early in the A.M. and not much else to do.
Very interesting! Thanks for sharing.
10,000 left seems to be way low estimate. I think more realistic estimate is that more than half of original mintage are still around albeit well-worn condition. Saw a big stack of them a number of years at a coin show. They were Littleton Coin Company's hoard of '16-D's that had been pulled out of circulation by a transportation worker in the '40's.
“I believe in intuitions and inspirations. I sometimes feel that I am right. I do not know that I am. When two expeditions of scientists, financed by the Royal Academy, went forth to test my theory of relativity, I was convinced that their conclusions would tally with my hypothesis. I was not surprised when the eclipse of May 29, 1919, confirmed my intuitions. I would have been surprised if I had been wrong.”
“Then you trust more to your imagination than to your knowledge?”
“I am enough of the artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.”
Albert Einstein- quoted in Saturday Evening Post interview (1929)
The most important factor affecting the pricing isn't how many MAY have survived but how many come to market. The effective supply that coupled with demand supports the pricing isn't made up of possible hoards hidden in a grandchild's antic. Even if you accept that 100,000 16-D's survived what supports the pricing is the limited number that is in the marketplace. That is the effective supply. Given the number of certified coins and the estimates by some of the dealers that have comment regarding the number of raw coins I think the effective supply is the 10,000 number mentioned earlier.
Again, we can speculate about hidden hoards but if another 10,000 or 20,000 16-D's hit the market tomorrow my guess is the pricing would plunge dramatically.
<< <i>Nice story and additional interesting speculation.
The most important factor affecting the pricing isn't how many MAY have survived but how many come to market. The effective supply that coupled with demand supports the pricing isn't made up of possible hoards hidden in a grandchild's antic. Even if you accept that 100,000 16-D's survived what supports the pricing is the limited number that is in the marketplace. That is the effective supply. Given the number of certified coins and the estimates by some of the dealers that have comment regarding the number of raw coins I think the effective supply is the 10,000 number mentioned earlier.
Again, we can speculate about hidden hoards but if another 10,000 or 20,000 16-D's hit the market tomorrow my guess is the pricing would plunge dramatically. >>
This is all inarguably true. But it would still be of value to know (or at least have
an idea of) the actual number of surviving examples. For one it can impart import-
ant information about the demand for the coin and by extension, the size of the
hobby. Also, to some extent individual decisions are based on this sort of percep-
tion. It also says something about the size and character of various segments of
the hobby.
Unfortunately it's beginning to look like the subject has been talked to death with
no clear resolution. It should be safe to say that between 3,000 and 120,000 survive.
Which would you enjoy owning more? An 1864 Half Dime in Fine condition at $400 or a 1916D in Fine condition for $1300?
In my opinion, the half dime is a genuinely rare coin while the Merc enjoys popularity despite it's plentiful availability.
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
rare coin before the release so the absolute number released should provide some
insight into relative rarity.
Does anyone have any info on any collectable coin availability? Preferably a somewhat
more valuable coin in a somewhat popular series.
hey sam
that's a tough question to answer. many coins that are considered rare/scarce/difficult/desireable can be found within a short period and almost always turn up at every major show and even some smaller ones. i think the clincher in your post is the word "popular" because it points to the simple fact of whether collectors are viewed as pursueing a certain coin or not. the 1916-D is an excellent example of this. it has remained popular for decades!! other coins, while they may be more rare/scarce/difficult/desireable just don't enjoy the 16-D's popularity and aren't offered for sale as often or noticed when they are.
we have a phenomenon that occurs in cycles at our clubs. many members keep track of each lot---who buys it, how many bidders and the sale price. certain coins will appear en masse when bidding is strong and dissappear if the bidding is low, giving way to what else is a hot seller. morgans are always in demand with the CC dates selling for stupid money!!
i figure that's essentially the way it works in the hobby as a whole. with key dates, since everybody wants them, it seems that there are way more than their scarcity would indicate. other coins that should be easy but aren't as popularly collected, are sometimes difficult to find. maybe i haven't explained this very well, but it makes sense to ME and answers a lot of my "why" questions when i'm looking for certain dates.
al h.
My grandfather was in the Merchant Marine in his teens and twenties -- 1930-1935 and while visiting ports of call in South America, he managed to find a good number of circulating US coins -- Morgans, Peaces, Barber halves, quarters & dimes, Mercs, older Buffs and older Lincolns that he saved and eventually passed to me. These were taken right from his pocket change.
We know US currency and coins are used globally today, but realize it was also used 75 years ago as well. Hoards of US coins might still exist in collectors hands and bank vaults in other countries.
Michael
by tourists, but was not aware that they were ever actually used.
This is no longer true today though. Recent date coins which come back from over
seas will show no addtitional wear.
I'd say that there were perhaps 50 or 60 thousand BU 1903-O dollars released in the early 1960s. The coin is still worth $200 to $300 today in MS-63 - 64, which would indicate that it is not extremely "common" like some dates.
If a find like that had occurred in another series other than Morgan dollars, the price would be a lot lower. The demand for BU Morgans among collectors is strong, which greatly enhances the market value of those coins relative to their rarity. Most Morgans with the exception of the 1889-CC, 1893-S and 1895-P are really very common coins. It's the demand that drives their prices to such high amounts.
a list once of the number of bags involved for many of the dates but am
not sure where it was.
Fifty or sixty thousand would seem to indicate that the population of 16-D
dimes is closer to the bottom end of the range than the top.
edited to add:
As a collector of Mercury dimes in the early 1960s, I never located a 1916-D Mercury dime. I did find 1916 plains, 1917 plains, and other well circulated pre-1920 dimes. Conditionwise, the best pre-1920 coin I found in circulation at that time would be Fine. I would find others that were well circulated with dates illegible, but most of the time there was enough detail to make out the date.
I was able to find a complete set, minus the 1916-D, 1921, and 1921-D.
Collector of US Small Size currency, Atlanta FRNs, and Georgia nationals since 1977. Researcher of small size US type - seeking serial number data for all FRN star notes, Series 1928 to 1934-D. Life member SPMC.
In his book, "The Official Red Book of Morgan Silver Dollars", Q. David Bowers estimates that 200,000 to 350,000
1903 O Morgans may have been released from government vaults in 1962 - 1964.
<< <i> Coins from the teens and twenties got killed because of the Great Depression. People needed to eat and put a roof over their head, and they could not afford to set aside a lot of old coins, especially coins that carried the current designs. >>
Of course not! They were modern crap, unlike the classic Sheild nickels!
I have a friend that has an old Whitman album he wanted to show me that his Dad had started and gave up on and asked him to complete. It was a complete collection of Mercury Dimes in AU-MS. His 1916-D in is AU condition. I noticed immediately upon opening this album that the 16-D has a different color then the other dimes. Bruce stated that he got that dime out of a roll of circ. dimes and it was dirty so he cleaned it!
How many 1916-D's are left? Well if you take for instance 25 Bruces from every state X 50 states = (1250) 1916-D dimes! Just a rough estimate!
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
Note that most people believe the attrition here is far higher than my estimate.
I'm curious as to your thoughts on the surviving number of 20¢ pieces and 3CN from the 1880's (with mintages between 18000-38000).
His research turned up some surprising numbers for government melting throughout the 20th century.
As I remember it might be in the realm of about 20,000 coins or so.
These numbers might also imply melting of 20c pieces was still going on.
There are probably 2 to 3 counterfeits per genuine 1916-D dime, which would be 80,000 to 150,000. I believe in a published article in one of the coin papers a few years ago, the story was told of a fellow who whenever he had an extra $50, went to the flea market and bought a 1916-D dime. After a long time, he decided to sell his stash of about 300, and all of them were found to be counterfeits. OUCH!!! So in total, IMO there appear to be 120,000 to 200,000 available coins (incl. the counterfeits) out of the original mintage of 264,000.
The 1916-D dime is a coin that IMO you shouldn't consider buying unslabbed unless you are very sure it is genuine.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Scarce, but definitely not rare....Now, higher grades, thats a totally different animal
"La Vostra Nonna Ha Faccia Del Fungo"