Let's argue condition vs rarity.
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
I've swung both ways. (woo woo....heh) While I appreciate and get real pleasure from a pristine mint state or proof example of a beautiful coin, lately I have been more attentive to rarity.
Not Stellas or '48 Cals or '04 dollars, mind you, but just plain old classic nice attractive circulated coins.
In other words, I am spending say $2000 on a FINE 1795 dollar rather than a MS65 shield nickel with rays.
Like an idiot, I sold the best coin I ever owned (for condition) that I bought for $200 and sold for $8000 and still miss it. I can still see it in my mind's eye. But I could buy another and yet now I am spreading lower amounts on more coins.
What's YOUR preference?
Not Stellas or '48 Cals or '04 dollars, mind you, but just plain old classic nice attractive circulated coins.
In other words, I am spending say $2000 on a FINE 1795 dollar rather than a MS65 shield nickel with rays.
Like an idiot, I sold the best coin I ever owned (for condition) that I bought for $200 and sold for $8000 and still miss it. I can still see it in my mind's eye. But I could buy another and yet now I am spreading lower amounts on more coins.
What's YOUR preference?
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Comments
Cameron Kiefer
OOps this isnt the Coors Light - TASTE GREAT / LESS FILLING arguement.
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If you want that really rare coin to fill a set...or just because you like it but can't afford the super grade...find a lower grade that you can afford and find pleasing to the eye and you will be happy. Now...like you did...if you have to sell one of your "babies" to foot the bill....well you have a tough decision.
The best I can do with it is VF for the old(classic ) coins and even that would be out of my range if it were not for the moderns.
Modern coins are my vehical for completing my Type set.
I could not just buy what I need for my set like most of you real collectors. Not on a working mans budget.
I have learned to grade coins and the coins I grade are modern (which do not cost an arm and a leg to buy, it least not til I'm done with them).
All the easy money I get from moderns go to my Type set and it is growing great guns now.
Moderns are a great cash cow, if you know how to milk it.
Glen
Very few people are interested in buying common coin that costs as much as a house on the beach. Nothing makes it that valuable other than the dealer saying so.
You can always sell a rare coin because everybody wants them because there are a lot of collectors and not many of that coin.
For my series it's a non-issue because for Morgans I have to have the common as well as the rare ones. However when I buy a type coin I'll buy like a 13-S Buff T1 rather than a 37 in 67 because the 37 is well...common and everybody has them.
Show somebody your MS67 Lincoln and they'll say "Um-huh. Do you have the 09-S VDB?"
While a state quarter in MS67 is undoubtedly in excellent condition, its not rare in excellent condition. So who cares.
But take for example the 1723 Hibernia Halfpenny, which is among the most common colonial coins. It is however decidedly rare in gem red uncirculated condition. Maybe a half dozen such Hibernias exist, and in that case I do care.
Personally, I would much prefer the gem red Hibernia of which 6 exist to a rare colonial of which a total of 6 exist but all are worn and unattractive.
Not looking for whether you would rather have a rarity in top condition. ALL of us would.
Looking for preference of condition OR rarity for a given value.
In non-moderns, I'd pick rarity of the two.
The condition of the coin is what makes it rare.
Check the pops and prices on a MS63 and MS68
My posts viewed times
since 8/1/6
But to support your argument, my 1902 PR67CAM 25c is not going to have quite the pristine appearance of a PR70DCAM Washington quarter minted in the early 1970's or late 1960's. Some of these coins I would have to fork over the same amount of cash that I paid for the Barber quarter. I would argue that this Barber quarter is more rare than the PR70DCAM Washington for the same amount of money. I would rather have a PR67CAM classic rarity than a "perfect" PR70DCAM modern. That isn't to bash modern collecting, it is because that is what I enjoy.
Nice thread.
I got a coin in the mail while a non collecting friend was visiting. He doesn't know that there WERE coins with designs other than the current ones. We are talking ....COIN CHALLENGED.
The coin was a F12 1795 dollar. He looked at it and remarked how nice the "condition" was. You could see "everything." And it was so "old."
W H I C H.........got me to thinking. Was I prejudiced toward condition? Yes I was.
So, I have gone to the "other side" BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!! And have started picking up classic coins in the F VF XF grades. They ARE attractive. Nuttin is CLEANED. All original coins that may have purchased a slave or bribed an Indian or been lost in a poker game to Wild Bill Hickock.
Old slugs that have been slammed on tables, tossed on counters, and buried in cans.
And so it goes.
But....in modern coins....65+ or proof or into the parking meter with em.
Some people buy this hype (people, for example, who fork over $5,000.00 for an MS68 State quarter).
Some people don't (me, for example)
Dave
examples of my best; 1892 S barber half in pcgs 66 with 2 grade and 1 higher
1884 seated quarter in pcgs 66 not conditionally rare but scarce as a date with the 4th lowest mintage in the entire seated series.
Coins like that are still not priced out of site but maybe someday they will catch the interest of the people currently buying from ebay or hsn.
If i were rich i would buy the top graded [with eye appeal to match the grade that i could find in an 1893 s morgan or 01 s barber quarter; or due a date set of high grade mint state bust dollars [It sure is nice to dream, isn't it ?] LOL
Tom
In practical terms how does this work out for my collection? When I bought a Chain cent I purchased a coin that I graded Fine-15. (Today it’s in a VF-30 slab, but that’s for another discussion.) When I got to the end of my type set the only coin I had left to go was the 1796-7 half dollar. The best that I could afford of that type coin was an AG-3 by wear that had a repaired hole in it. Bottom line: I did without. I won’t pay over $8,000 for a piece of junk no matter how rare it is, even if it would complete a collection.
As for modern material, I would never pay a big premium for a very common coin because it had a high slab grade. I’d sooner own a lower grade “classic coin” for the same money. Those who pay $2,500 for a state quarter in MS-68 should really get out more. For that kind of money you can own some really great classic coins in some very desirable grades. Furthermore when it comes time to sell, your market will be much larger. There are many dealers at the major shows who are more than happy to buy attractive collector grade classic coins. I think that you will find that the liquidity for very high priced, very common modern coins in very high grades is not as good as you might think.
But hey, now I’m treading on dangerous territory now so I’ll bring this post to an end.
I'd go for the 1877 in a heart beat. A large number of collectors what that coin if it is properly graded and has no problems. A smaller number of collectors want the 1906 MS-66, red at the prices one would have to pay for that coin. And if it grows a spot on you well...
I'd much rather pay $1500 for a fine 1893-S Morgan than I would for an MS 68 1881-S Morgan.
And to mix series a little...I'd rather pay a couple hundred for a nice 21-D Walker than I would a REALLY nice Morgan.
Even the value of rarities are affected by condition. In many cases the values of truly rare coins can be held down if they are found only or almost only in lower grades, the strawberry leaf cent notwithstanding . This is noted by Doug Winter in an article about the 1854-s quarter eagle (see link). LINK
CG
Which brings me to another issue about rarity and condition.
Since my seemingly only option to get a key coin is to buy the cull put out there for sale.
Its just the way it is.All the dealers of coins ARE the biggest collectors,
So it seems around here,,maybe its different where you are?,,but THEY hold,,I suppose,,
the nicest of the keys and MS Classics..(he said as he fell from the back of a potatoe truck)
Now IF they had one for sell to me it would most likely be out of my ballpark (he said optumisticly)
So to see the bright side as it were, I take the problem of the supposive cull key and state that that
could just about all but authenticate the coin in itself.
Does that make since?
I say` the lightly pitted surface from PVC damage on this key isnt too too bad but its THE real deal and THE key for this series so that pitting only qualifies it genuine, assuming all other elements are in place....Ok, There is much more to
authenticating than pitted surfaces or unsightly damage.
Its just how I make myself feel better about getting that ONE COIN that is the key to a series and that little problem
aint that bad.
Hows that for optimism.
...Oh wait. No one has ever bashed any classics. This is a one way street. Only
moderns and those who collect them get bashed.
...As has been stated before, it's not that classics can't be bashed it's just that
bashing any coins IS IN NO ONES BEST INTEREST.
I like coins. Rare is my favorite. For me it's primarily a tradeoff between rarity
and PRICE. I don't really care so much about condition so long as it's rare.
<< <i>Let me state a simple concept. When it comes to absolute rarity (very limited supply of a particular coin) you really don't have any options. Either you pay the price or you don't get the coin. When it comes to condition rarity where there is only 1 MS-68, 4 MS-67's, 40 MS-66's, 2,500 MS-65's and 300,000 MS-64 coins you've got options. It's not like if you don't get that MS-68 there are no options available to you. >>
There were fewer than 100,000 1977 type "d" reverse coins minted. These are
available in circulation for $.25 In fact, you'll be hard pressed to find one for sale
AT ANY PRICE because most of the surviving examples are still in circulation.
There are 100,000 surviving 16-D dimes. In decent condition (most detail remaining
with no damage) they'll run in excess of $500.
Thanks for the info.
Gotta go scour the city for quarters now.
L8R.....
What is the market price of a 1977 type d quarter in MS65 vs any other type of that date? What other "types" of quarters that you have mentioned on this board from time to time actually trades at a premium? What dealers are selling those by type? Aren't these "types" a lot like many Morgan VAMS that do not bring large premiums because they are minor variations that can be detected only under high magnification by a trained eye?
CG
<< <i>CladKing,
What is the market price of a 1977 type d quarter in MS65 vs any other type of that date? What other "types" of quarters that you have mentioned on this board from time to time actually trades at a premium? What dealers are selling those by type? Aren't these "types" a lot like many Morgan VAMS that do not bring large premiums because they are minor variations that can be detected only under high magnification by a trained eye?
CG >>
The type "d" reverse quarters are very dramatic and can be spotted from several
feet away. The relief is much shallower and most details are at least slightly different.
The easiest way to spot it is the right side of the "N" in "UNUM". It is much further
fron the eagle's head on the type "d" (or small motto).
Like most moderns these coins have barely been researched. They are not widely
known and have not been reported with any detail. Coin World mentioned and named
the variety (as type "d") last year but gave no information on which years were pro-
duced. These exist for all dates from '77 to '84 and become increasingly common over
this span. None exist in mint sets except the 81-P, ( the 82-P doesn't exist at all.)
The 77-D, 78, 78-D, 79, 79-D, 80-D, and 81-D are scarce in unc. Indeed they are scarce
above VF. None other than the 81-P, 83-P, 83-D, 84-P, and 84-D probably exist in MS-65.
There are probably no uncirculated examples of the '77! This coin may be excessively
rare above VF!
There are many very interesting coins in circulation. Many are rare. Most have little "value"
at the current time.
The best approach is to buy quality for the grade. Afew weeks ago, Paigowjohnny posted an attractive 1893-s Morgan that was graded fine. That coin was "quality for the grade" and that is exactly the type of coin that makes sense to own because everyone who wants to complete a set of Morgans needs this date and originals will always be in demand. Not all collectors can spend $5K+ on a single coin.
Another good example on another current thread is the 1892-cc Morgan. Another quality coin for the grade. Buying coins with collector interest that are quality for the grade is better than generic common coins because they will always be just that...generic and common.
The point can be illustrated best using Morgan Dollars. Generic common dates graded MS65 peaked somewhere in the $500-$600 range in the 1987-89 time frame. Quality for the grade key date Morgans have done MUCH BETTER. Just some thoughts...
Good luck in your collecting pursuits...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
"There are 100,000 surviving 16-D dimes. In decent condition (most detail remaining with no damage) they'll run in excess of $500."
Where the heck did you come up with that 100,000 surviving 16-D dimes? The NGC pop report shows a total of 669 (both non-FB and FB). I would image the PCGS population is about the same. Are you saying there are 90,000 raw 16-D's out there?
And there may be 100,000 collectors interest in buying them at $3 ~ $4 and 237 collectors interested in them at $500. Seriously, I think you may have a misperception of the size of the coin industry as a whole and the market size for high priced modern coinage in particular.
far off, though I'm not extremely familiar with this series. There may not be more than a
few dozen collectors who are seeking the '77 coin. There are no books written on the ob-
solete eagle reverse clad quarters. Even Feigenbaum's fine book on Washingtons hardly
mentions the clad coins. There are mentions of these coins in some other references such
as the Cherrypickers Guide but there is no comprehensive listing. There are likely no more
than a dozen or two collectors looking for these particular coins and most have probably
started in the last couple of years. Perhaps a bag of uncs will turn up, but my guess is that
there are no uncs. I say this based on 22 years of systematically looking for the coins in unc.
Very few rolls or bags of '77 quarters were saved and the coins were likely released in only
two or three areas.
Collecting isn't really about condition or rarity. It is much more about completeness, and if
future collectors consider these coins necessary for completeness they will prove "rare" in most
grades.
Rarity, however, is a relative thing. A $10 Liberty that was as numerous as the 1909S VDB cent would be considered a common date.
Let me give another example, I have two matte proof PCGS graded Brown PR-65 Lincoln cents. I had, but sold, a high end, beautiful (the dealer's eyes bugged out of sockets when he saw it; he hand handled other matte proofs, but was impressed with this one) PCGS grade Red PR65 matte Lincoln. I submit alll of the coins are rare. Although I miss the red one from time to time. I am really happy with the brown ones, and wish I could have more.
This brings me to my final point, outstadning eye appeal. Each of these examples involved coins with outstanding eye appeal (and no not every coin I have has outstanding eye appeal- I only wish), to me a low grade, truly rare coin (i.e., in any grade there are not many to go around) with oustanding eye appeal wins out over a condition rarity coin, again excluding my Franklin collection.
"Pmh1nic: I was referring to all 16-D dimes including circs. This number shouldn't be too
far off, though I'm not extremely familiar with this series."
And my response was with reference to all 16-D dimes. My educated guess is that there are no where near 100,000 surviving coins in all conditions. With maybe 1,000 ~ 2,000 certified coins and the $500 price tag as an incentive to certify anything raw would cause me to be very surprised if there are even 5,000 raw coins in collectible condition.
I think one aspect of this discussion that filters your view of the market is your love of collecting and the coins you collect. The members of this forum are the diehard collectors who will spend a considerable amount of their disposible income to pursue the hobby we love. We buy the coins, the books, the magazines, attend the shows, join the ANA, etc. The vast majority of collectors view collecting as a nice something to do on the side who are not going to spend $500 on any individual coin. They're happy pulling coins from circulation (and that's absolutely fine) or buying a VF for $15 or $20 rather than spending $200 or $300 on a MS example.
The market for $500 and $1,000 coins is just not large enough to absorb 10,000 or 20,000 coins of one particular type. Just consider the SSCA coins. With all the hype surrounding these coins (books, a couple of TV specials, aggressive advertising, a very high profile auction) many have still not found homes in private collections. These coins were somewhat more expense but there were only about 6,000 of the 1857-S double eagles and after 3 years they still can get rid of them at what was the market price for the coins when the populations were low (the SSCA recovery increase the population by approximately 10x).
Also consider the 1995-W SAE with a mintage of 30,000+. Yes, some of these coins have sold for $1,500 ~ $2,000 but the vast majority I see offered at these prices on Ebay go unsold because there just isn't a large enough market to absorb these coins at those prices even given the popularity of the series (and that's with only a small percentage of the population becoming available each year).
I love the hobby and I've spend thousands of dollars pursuing it (mere peanuts to some on the forum) but I realize we are the select group of coin collecting nuts that pour these kinds of dollars into the hobby. Most of the rest of the population thinks we're exactly that...NUTS!
al h.
I can offer this example; I recently purchased an 1853 PCGS $2.5
Liberty in MS66 for $7,500. This is, and has been for a long time, a POP 1, with only 3 MS 65s and none finer. I bought this for a 12 piece gold type set. I could have had a 1902 PCGS $2.5 in MS 67, and a 1906 PCGS $2.5 in MS 67 also, for $1,000 less. Both the 1902 and the 1906 are low pop and worth an extra point on the PCGS Registry, but to me it is a no brainer. I love the 'extra' fifty years on the 1853, and I also believe it has superior eye appeal over the other two. I guess what I am satying is, sometimes you can get a coin just one grade lower and almost, if not exactly comparable to one that is 50 or more years newer. It would have to be a long running series as the $2.5 Libs., I just mentioned, which run from 1840 to 1907.
Tom
don't you think that with IHC's the best overall value with numerical grade being equal is an RB with plenty of color?
al h.
If I was putting together a type set vice collecting a series....my feeling changes. I would want to get the absolute finest looking knock your eyes out example of the series that I could find and afford....which means I would probably put rarity aside and go for condition for that one coin example of the series...but then my approach to type collecting would be different than some who might want THE key coin of the series to be their example.
The Flowing Hair 1794-95 are very expensive, but this is a good looking coin in F12, in my opinion. Some of mine are cleaned or have some grafitti , but the coins still can be studied and enjoyed in low grades. I do have an appreciation for early U.S. coins that have completed a full tour in commerce.
The Cladking is right on in stating that prices are all about completeness. This explains why a 1916 dime can be comparable in price to an 1802 half dollar (29,000 mintage), there are simply more dime collectors wanting to complete a set. The 1796/97 small eagle half is the rarest U.S. silver type, there is an XF at Heritage that is currently bid @ $51,000, the bidder is a probably a collector wanting to complete his type set, and not a bust half collector.
I am currently working on such a key date type set. Now that's not in stone, there will be no 94s dime and if a super awesome galactic common appears I will be tempted, but it is a cool method IMHO. It does make it go slowly - I currently rank 40th on the registry set list. I figure that if I live to be 113 I will get it finished (but only if the set still stops at 1964).
"The Cladking is right on in stating that prices are all about completeness. This explains why a 1916 dime can be comparable in price to an 1802 half dollar (29,000 mintage), there are simply more dime collectors wanting to complete a set."
Completeness can be extremely sacrificed if creating completeness means spending 20x ~ 100x as much for a key date as you spend for the other coins in the series. How many SAE collectors are foregoing the 1995-W because the asking price is $1500 ~ $2000 while the average price for the rest of the series is $100?
Again, don't be misled by your own love and dedication to the hobby and your resources to buy the key dates at 20x the price of the other coins in the series. The vast majority of collectors don't approach collecting that way, at least not enough to absorb tens of thousands of one particular coin in the $500 ~ $1000 price range.
last i remember the ask for most of the other coins in the series was well under $100 for the proofs and less than $10 for the unc's. have i missed something??
al h.
Works for me......
<< <i>And the curve ball in the equation....
If I was putting together a type set vice collecting a series....my feeling changes. I would want to get the absolute finest looking knock your eyes out example of the series that I could find and afford....which means I would probably put rarity aside and go for condition for that one coin example of the series...but then my approach to type collecting would be different than some who might want THE key coin of the series to be their example. >>
Once again resides with Legend, the original purchaser "raw" at live Eliasberg auction. Laura and i "love" the same lady!
Agreed, I don't own the key date of the capped bust half series, the 1815. At $2000 for an 1815 VF, I can get 20 different XF bust half varieties.
However, what the Cladking said about completeness is correct with all key dates, including the 1815 half. There are 1500 1815 halves estimated to survive, and most bust half collectors (1500+) want one to complete their year set, thus the $2000 price tag for a VF.
I voted with my wallet and I am still thinking about a 16-D, as I choose the 18-P. Has anyone else made these types of decisions? P.S. donations for the 16-D needed for my collection are welcome.
To illustrate how this is not always the case, let's look at the 5 most common N/M Seated dollars (in date order): 1842, 1847, 1859-O, 1860 and 1860-O. Of these five, who can tell me which is the rarest in GEM and which is the rarest in CHOICE? Rather than belabor the point, I'll just answer my own question...
The 1842 is unknown in GEM. If you find a near MS64PQ++, then it is a very strong candidate for finest known.
The 1859-O has a very sharp pop dip from 62 to 63. Over the past few years, I've only seen a very small handful of them available. I've only heard a rumor of a 64 from a board member, and he's seen that coin only many years ago.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Prowler, you are talking about modern coins and the difference between MS-67 at $30 and MS-68 at $2,500, so far as I'm concerned that is a true statement.
If you are taking about the coins that you listed, then you are right.
I need to see CLEAR differences in preservation, and so far I'm concerned those differences need to be pretty dramatic to rate a premimum in the magnatude of $30 to $2,500. Even so ANYTHING can be over priced no matter how rare it is. That goes for classic coins as well.