HA! Another elitist post disguised as a defense of the little guy. Are you saying that those of us who collect MS-65 moderns are all "cheap" just because we don't pay 5,000 times face value for an FS designation and a piece of plastic?! How dare you!
Okay, I get it, things can be easily misread or mis-interpreted. I will say no more.
<< <i>I don't have ANY problems with prices at $5 or $17. Amounts like that are worth a learning experience if nothing else.
I DO have problems with coins that carry price tags in the hundreds and thousands of dollars with mintages that are in the millions and billions. I do have problems with "one way" markets (can buy them for big bucks, but can't resell them for a commenserate amount) I prefer substance to sizzle. >>
...and who is to be the arbiter of what is a fair price to teach someone a lesson or an outrageous price that has been hyped up by promoters. You've proven a lack of knowledge of these coins many times. Surely no one would trust my val- uations much more than yours. If only we had a dynamic mechanism like a free market to do it. I must be a dreamer; I picture a world where the price guides list prices which are actually over the wholesale price and a place where like minded people can discuss coins without constant attack by the self appointed newbie super hero.
A paradigm shift has been in progress for several years on the modern coins. Some of these will come through this process unscathed. Others will get torched. But there are also classic type coins that if busted out of the holder, would not bring 50% of the listed price. There are pitfalls and substantial risks on both sides of the fence. Bust dollars are on a roll but whose to say these are not due to for a correction once the wave of new buyers for these exit the market? The coin market is a very tough nut to predict. One thing for sure though, if you keep buying what everyone else is and what's hot, you'll eventually end up in the same hole.
This must be a sore topic for many collectors. I will close in saying that I will continue to buy coins based on their overall appearance that make sense in price.
The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. It is as if the difficulty in finding certain attributes justifies the price increase, whether the overall look is that much better or only slightly better. Can there really be that much of a difference between a 1955-D in MS65 for $0.25 and the $1,200 in MS64 FS? What about the difference between one in MS66 and one in MS64 FS (here I assume that the former is substantially less expensive than the latter)? To the inner circle of cash laden collectors who pay the big price difference I must appear cheap. However, I still enjoy my coins that are not worthy of boasting about among said group.
"Drinking has ruined my life-- I'm 31 years old!" (just kidding)
<< <i>The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. >>
This has been a interesting thread. I think a GEM is a Gem is a Gem. Whether it has a special desgination or not, I have some ms65 and 66 Frankies that don't have the FBL and I love em. However, I go out of my way to buy the coins with desginations such as Full Bell, Full Split Band, Full Steps... Hey, Lucy loves things that are 'Full'! I don't think any lesser of anyone whom disagrees and avoids these coins with the desginations.....The other side of the coin is there are those claiming that people such as myself collect desginations and not really nice coins, whatever, this Kitten has some lovely GEMS in her collection that anyone would be very hard pressed to say its too bad its just a desgination and not a nice coin.
Be Bop A Lula!! "Senorita HepKitty" "I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Another inflammatory post weakly disguised as a "helpful" thread.
It is the topic that is inflammatory due to the hyper-sensitivity of a few people with deeply entrenched beliefs and financial positions. The original post itself is just a post. I found it to be more of a warning than anything else, but I also did NOT consider it to be limited to moderns. Those who view the original post as a moderns-bashing message can't see the forest for the trees.
When I read the post, I was thinking ... Sure, I agree. I would rather buy an ED in a solid EF45 than one in a AU50; the qualitative distinction is a moving target, and the price difference is not worth it to me. I do this with all the coins I collect. I actually have a partial set of PF Ikes. All are PF69DCAM because, at the time, the price over a PF68DCAM is minimal but the price of a PF70DCAM is quite considerable. And, I don't enjoy my coins by looking at them through a 20x loupe. So, I can't easily discern the difference at that grade level.
One way to view the original post is as a suggestion to newbies to go bargain hunting. Buying ``the best'' isn't exactly the ``best that you can afford.'' And, buying the best in a hot series generally means that you are more likely paying full value as opposed to getting a bargain. Time has shown that there are always exceptions, but they are unpredictable.
Bust dollars are on a roll but whose to say these are not due to for a correction once the wave of new buyers for these exit the market?
This is precisely the reason why I felt the original post wasn't a moderns-bashing one. I am very concerned about the continued increase in the price of ED's. I have decided to ride it out and only buy the super-rare varieties. If in 2 or 5 years the price of this series does not come down, then all I've lost is time. I can still resume collecting them once I've been convinced that their new pricing levels are stable.
Pretty good discourse from all sides. It's late in this thread, but I'd like to add to the confusion. I collect classics and moderns. I like the moderns because I can search raw coins for the examples I'm hunting. After a little looking, one of the things you "discover" is that most of the higher-priced moderns, although available, have a certain labor cost associated with locating an acceptable example raw. I am not afforded that opportunity to search raw classic hoards, but even if I did, there would also be labor cost. Sure, if you're willing to look at 5000 mint sets, you'll find some PQ coins for your collection. What is the cost (time, gas, availablilty) of examining 5000 sets? What of the years for which there were no sets? People with disposable income to allocate to coin collections ultimately decide for themselves what the convienience of buying one pre-holdered is. Since all date and mintmark moderns are relatively common, modern collectors expect to collect only premium examples. Classic collectors are different in several key ways, the most important distinction being their willingness to accept lower grade examples in exchange for affordability. There are huge premium jumps in both classic and modern when availability gets thin. The only thing I see in the previous posts that stands out as unusual is the assumption labor costs to locate PQ moderns will somehow plummet. It really isn't availability. We all know they're available. Will the price of moderns plummet? If demand diminishes it will, but the cost of locating them won't. IMO
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
In the end this is either a hobby, an investment or a business deal. The point of the original post was to warn about risk. The risk as an investment or business deal is obvious. The risk of a hobby is what you wish or are able to spend for what you value. It only becomes a problem if you change your values or need the resources for something else.
Happy Thanksgiving. There is nothing here that prohibits a wonderfull meal and sharing "Thanks" with friends and family. There are people all over the world that wish they had the resources to argue over our problems.
I agree with the comments about Bust Dollars. They have been on a roll, and I think the prices have gotten too high, especially for problem coins that have been repaired or have serious defects. When markets get out of hand as they have been with Bust dollars. people can get hurt on them as well. The difference is that I could see problem coins that are now selling for $2,500 falling to less than $1,000 ($500 to $900) when the novelty wears off.
With a $2,000 modern that got to that level because it is in slab brand X with grade Z on it, the price decline can be breath taking. Even the market is giving us clues about that. Just look at the spread between the highest coin graded and the coins that are only 1 point less.
I try to call them as I see them. If a customer gave me a want list for a Bust Dollar I'd tell him the market is currently speculative and there is room to get hurt badly. If he tells me go ahead and get the coin for him I'll do it, but it's his call. My opinion is that prices are a high right now and might settle down, but that's my opinion not a fact.
And when I tell you that I have no faith in these wonder coin modern pieces, that's what I believe. You can call me stupid, but that's my opinion.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
"Grade is only one component of pricing. Does it really account for 99% of a coin's value?"
This is a point I've made in the past about the premiums being paid for one point grade differences. Everyone is free to form their own sense of value but there are a number of other important factors (absolute rarity, historical significants, grade and eye appeal) that I consider in assessing a coin's value. Grade never makes up anywhere close to 99% of my value assessment.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
<< <i>One way to view the original post is as a suggestion to newbies to go bargain hunting. Buying ``the best'' isn't exactly the ``best that you can afford.'' And, buying the best in a hot series generally means that you are more likely paying full value as opposed to getting a bargain. Time has shown that there are always exceptions, but they are unpredictable.
EVP >>
It is certainly logical to buy coins at just lower than the grades where large price jumps occur. Often these jumps are caused by market forces which are long lasting, but we're in this to make coin collections not profits, right? The same forces which made large jumps between the top two tiers of moderns can just as easily cause another jump to occur just under the second tier coins. With the distribution of most of the moderns in terms of grade there are likely to be a series of jumps should demand become significant.
The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. It is as if the difficulty in finding certain attributes justifies the price increase, whether the overall look is that much better or only slightly better. >>
With moderns there tends to be a much higher correlation between strenght of strike of any random high point and overall strike quality than there is with the classic coins. This is largely because a relatively high percentage of the dies ex- hibit great wear and/or are set too far apart. This isn't to say collectors in the future won't differentiate these by some design element, indeed there is already interest in the desigation of Full Band Roosies. There is however, less justification for differentiation.
There is nothing wrong with collecting ANY coin in ANY grade. If one feels that a coin is a better value or is equally enjoyable in a lower grade then he should be able to buy it without fear of being taken to task by other collectors. Those who look down their noses at other collectors are elitist snobs.
With a $2,000 modern that got to that level because it is in slab brand X with grade Z on it, the price decline can be breath taking. Even the market is giving us clues about that. Just look at the spread between the highest coin graded and the coins that are only 1 point less. >>
The modern market is an infant market. There are growing pains and these will continue for some time. There are relatively few books on these coins so it's impossible to just look it up as one would do with th classics. Even the price guides are not accurate even for the low grade coins. How can one expect the high grade coins to have an up to date price list? This is why it's necessary to do your homework, to actually get out and see what coins are available from the many different sources. Otherwise one may end up buying coins that are relatively common and hyped. This will also protect one from buying coins which have low pops primarily because the extant examples have yet to be slabbed. No, the moderns are not for the feignt of heart or those who like to stick to the beaten path. But for those with a spirit of adventure and an open mind, many of these make a wonderful collection and an exciting opportunity.
This is a point I've made in the past about the premiums being paid for one point grade differences. Everyone is free to form their own sense of value but there are a number of other important factors (absolute rarity, historical significants, grade and eye appeal) that I consider in assessing a coin's value. >>
Not all moderns are common. Some are quite rare. Some moderns can be very elusive just in a nice attractive condition. All of your pricing components are factored into a coin's value by the market. But in point of fact none of these is critical to the price of any coin; classic, ancient, or modern. Of primary importance is demand.
I hope nothing I said is interpreted as modern bashing. My intent isn't to bash just state my humble opinion.
"Not all moderns are common. Some are quite rare. Some moderns can be very elusive just in a nice attractive condition."
If I interpret "elusive just in nice attractive condition" to mean the differences you might find in the higher grades it still puts the emphasis (and reason behind the tremendous premiums paid) on what in many cases is a one point difference in grade. Again my personal sense of value limits how much of a premium I'd pay for a one point difference in grade. That premium would never come close to making up 99% of the value of the coin.
Of course if you have Bill Gates money all of this is immaterial. For the person looking to maximize the bang for their numismatic buck IMHO you're better off buying the next grade lower (rather than paying 10X ~ 100x grade rarity premiums) and use the money saved to buy a nice example of another coin you'd like to add to your collection.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
No not in the least. I know you're not a big fan of moderns but nothing you said was bashing. Obviously no one has to be a fan.
When I said that many moderns are elusive just in a nice attractive condition, I meant that nice MS-63 coins can be elusive. Many moderns are tough to find in grades all the way down. The size of the modern set has become very large. Throw in the varieties and the various grade ranges in both circ and unc and this set is enormous.
Why do you feel the need to respond to every "modern bashing" (as you put it) thread? You seem to always be defensive about them. I understand that you are a fan but I don't think anyone is trying to tear them down. >>
Many newbies get turned off by the ubiquitous slamming of these coins. By the time the typical new collector has been around for a short time he has been insulted and had his collecting tastes insulted repeatedly. Newbies need pretty thick skin to stay around and this no doubt has a significant effect on the retention of these people. The modern market will continue to grow for years in any case but down the road the number of collectors who stick around will become critical. It will first be critical to the prices of the less rare modern coins and then it will become critical to the prices of the classics. In twenty five years the hobby will either be much smaller or large percentages of existing collectors will have gotten their start with state quarters. Some may have a hard time accepting this, but ask yourself this: If significant numbers of people do not begin collecting when the hobby has this huge opportunity then what better event might come along in the future?
There are no alternatives. For the best possible future for the hobby it is imperative that we encourage the newbies. No, I am not advocating that we get them to spend large amounts of money for small increases in grade (far from it). I am suggesting that we shouldn't tell them their holy grail is trash or clad crap. I am suggesting that when a thread gets going by people enjoying a conversation about some esoteric modern that they do not need to be interrupted to be told that it's overpriced junk and that real men collect something else nor do they need a warning about how fast prices come down. I am suggesting that if you can't help to encourage the newbies that you at least refrain from discouraging them.
I agree that we need to do more encouraging and educating. In the process of educating and providing guidance warnings about what one considers wise advice with respect to getting the most our of your numismatic budget, such as not pay large grade rarity premiums (usually but not always related to modern coinage), gets interpreted as modern bashing. At times the language used to express that point is naturally interpreted as a slam against moderns. That's unfortunate.
I do think (as I mentioned in an early thread started by Braddick) that we should discourage new collectors from developing an undue focus on grade and broaden their perception of the hobby to a more balanced view that encompasses the historical, artistic and scientific aspects of numismatics.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
This is a perfect thread for newbies. If someone blindly buys into the super plastic coin, they will get hurt in the long run. If someone is studying the market, and buys into select super plastic coins, they should be fine. (and this thread would not apply to them, and I doubt they would be called a newbie)
I keep hearing this crap that new collectors are being scared away from the hobby. I have never read a thread once that claimed collecting coins from your change (or bank rolls etc) is bad and seen criticism for doing it. I must have missed these constant bashing threads. While I have seen a few threads claiming someone shouldn't buy plastic rarities, most of the posts claim "I would never do that", not "you should never do that". This thread is one persons opinion of what they think is a crazy trend. If you want to buy the coins, go for it. This year I have seen people make big money and lose big money. The funny thing is, I know of examples where it is the exact same coin, and the big loss was the end result. Others will have opposite examples.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
Wow, I am glad we finally resolved the classics versus moderns issue with this thread, I thought that it was going to be like the Cypriot, Tibetian or Palestinian crises and stay unresolved for many years ... one thing to keep in mind (when thinking about this thread) is the old accountant joke ... accountants know everything about cost and nothing about value ...
EVP, my quote "Another inflammatory post weakly disguised as a "helpful" thread." that you used.
EVP, your comment on my post "The original post itself is just a post. I found it to be more of a warning than anything else, but I also did NOT consider it to be limited to moderns. Those who view the original post as a moderns-bashing message can't see the forest for the trees."
my comment on your comment "EVP you quoted my remark and then made the above remark. I said abosolutely nothing about modern bashing in my post. I did say that the original post was inflammatory, and it was. Normally I agree with you, but this time you did not read my post correctly. My point is that a lot of people justify what they collect by bashing what others collect. The guy was ripping MS66FS 2002 nickels without having the slightest idea of how tough it is to find one. If he is satisfied with a lesser coin, fine. But why knock someone who wants a FS Jefferson. People often use advice to dictate to others what they should or shouldn't collect. I have seen it all to often. I never do it myself, and I don't like it when someone else does it. I recently posted a thread where I extoled all areas of coin collectiing from moderns to ancients. Few commented postively on that thread, perhaps you did, I did not check, mdwoods"
In reality I did not "knock" anyone who wished to pay any amount for any coin. If a current coin can sell for $98 in MS66 FS there must be a reason. I am simply trying to discover the reason. The relative scarcity of the grade will not in and of itself automatically make a price jump. Supply must be let with greater demand for that to occur. If the answer is that there is great demand, I want to know why the demand is so great for so small an improvement in grade. Does anyone know what a 2002 nickel in MS66 sells for without the FS added to the holder? I suspect it is not &95, $75, $55, or even $45. Why is the FB so important on 1945 dimes? I imagine there must be a large difference between an MS66 and an MS66 FB.
My original post was not meant as a warning. However, the more I think about it the more I feel a warning may be in order. If prices are supported by intense competition for relatively few different series of coins, what happens when collectors interest goes elsewhere? Collectors will still covet beautiful 1945 dimes and 2002 nickels, but just maybe they will be satisfied with the overall look of an MS-66 coin and not become so transfixed upon getting an FB or FS on the coins' holders.
"Drinking has ruined my life-- I'm 31 years old!" (just kidding)
Try looking at the plastic as being one with the coin, its just another variety! Slab collecting is here to stay, like it or not, its part of the hobby now! As far as prices realized from one slab to another, its the same as one dealer to another, respect brings money! Put a coin in a respected dealers hands and the coin gains value, same with a respected slab, take it out and down she goes! Im talking sight unseen! THIS WOULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THERE WERE NO REGISTRY! Come on you old timers, show us old dogs can learn new tricks!
You can fool man but you can't fool God! He knows why you do what you do!
"As far as prices realized from one slab to another, its the same as one dealer to another, respect brings money!"
Your statement above is to a certain extend true but it's only true because there is such an undue emphasis (IMHO) on the minor differences that make up one point grade differences in the higher MS grades. When that one point difference in grade results in a 10X ~ 100X premium you want as much expert backing of the grade as you can get.
Someone mentioned the difficulty of finding FS Jeffersons in a particular year as justification for the significant premiums paid for these coins. That may be the case but whether a coins is FS or 95% FS is not a very important factor with respect to the overall coin (again, IMHO) and does not account for, in my estimation of value, 90% of the coins value. I personally don't putting that kind of focus on what I believe is a minor cosmetic detail. I would gladly settle for a 90% FS or a 90% FSB or FBL at 20% of the price and use the money saved to purchase other coins or maybe even a numismatic or history book.
By the way speaking of Jefferson and books if you haven't already done so you've got to read David McCullough's "John Adams." It's a wonderful book! I read it a while back but just saw David McCullough on C-span talking about how writing the book came about. His intend, as an expert on Jefferson, was to write a book about Jefferson and Adams using Adams as a contrast to highlight Jefferson. The more he learn about Adams the more he became intrigued by this relatively little known historical figure as he (McCullough) began to discover that Adams was probably more influential in the decision to declare independence from England then any other single individual. Althought Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence much of what is written in the Declaration are issues Adams verbally argued during the sometimes heated debates in the Continential Congress.
Anyway, it's a wonderful book with a tremendous amount of information and insight about the birth and early development of our Nation.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Comments
Okay, I get it, things can be easily misread or mis-interpreted. I will say no more.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
<< <i>I don't have ANY problems with prices at $5 or $17. Amounts like that are worth a learning experience if nothing else.
I DO have problems with coins that carry price tags in the hundreds and thousands of dollars with mintages that are in the millions and billions. I do have problems with "one way" markets (can buy them for big bucks, but can't resell them for a commenserate amount) I prefer substance to sizzle. >>
...and who is to be the arbiter of what is a fair price to teach someone a lesson
or an outrageous price that has been hyped up by promoters. You've proven a
lack of knowledge of these coins many times. Surely no one would trust my val-
uations much more than yours. If only we had a dynamic mechanism like a free
market to do it. I must be a dreamer; I picture a world where the price guides
list prices which are actually over the wholesale price and a place where like
minded people can discuss coins without constant attack by the self appointed
newbie super hero.
roadrunner
The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. It is as if the difficulty in finding certain attributes justifies the price increase, whether the overall look is that much better or only slightly better. Can there really be that much of a difference between a 1955-D in MS65 for $0.25 and the $1,200 in MS64 FS? What about the difference between one in MS66 and one in MS64 FS (here I assume that the former is substantially less expensive than the latter)? To the inner circle of cash laden collectors who pay the big price difference I must appear cheap. However, I still enjoy my coins that are not worthy of boasting about among said group.
<< <i>The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. >>
This has been a interesting thread. I think a GEM is a Gem is a Gem. Whether it has a special desgination or not, I have some ms65 and 66 Frankies that don't have the FBL and I love em. However, I go out of my way to buy the coins with desginations such as Full Bell, Full Split Band, Full Steps... Hey, Lucy loves things that are 'Full'! I don't think any lesser of anyone whom disagrees and avoids these coins with the desginations.....The other side of the coin is there are those claiming that people such as myself collect desginations and not really nice coins, whatever, this Kitten has some lovely GEMS in her collection that anyone would be very hard pressed to say its too bad its just a desgination and not a nice coin.
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
It is the topic that is inflammatory due to the hyper-sensitivity of a few people with deeply entrenched beliefs and financial positions. The original post itself is just a post. I found it to be more of a warning than anything else, but I also did NOT consider it to be limited to moderns. Those who view the original post as a moderns-bashing message can't see the forest for the trees.
When I read the post, I was thinking ... Sure, I agree. I would rather buy an ED in a solid EF45 than one in a AU50; the qualitative distinction is a moving target, and the price difference is not worth it to me. I do this with all the coins I collect. I actually have a partial set of PF Ikes. All are PF69DCAM because, at the time, the price over a PF68DCAM is minimal but the price of a PF70DCAM is quite considerable. And, I don't enjoy my coins by looking at them through a 20x loupe. So, I can't easily discern the difference at that grade level.
One way to view the original post is as a suggestion to newbies to go bargain hunting. Buying ``the best'' isn't exactly the ``best that you can afford.'' And, buying the best in a hot series generally means that you are more likely paying full value as opposed to getting a bargain. Time has shown that there are always exceptions, but they are unpredictable.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
This is precisely the reason why I felt the original post wasn't a moderns-bashing one. I am very concerned about the continued increase in the price of ED's. I have decided to ride it out and only buy the super-rare varieties. If in 2 or 5 years the price of this series does not come down, then all I've lost is time. I can still resume collecting them once I've been convinced that their new pricing levels are stable.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Happy Thanksgiving. There is nothing here that prohibits a wonderfull meal and sharing "Thanks" with friends and family. There are people all over the world that wish they had the resources to argue over our problems.
With a $2,000 modern that got to that level because it is in slab brand X with grade Z on it, the price decline can be breath taking. Even the market is giving us clues about that. Just look at the spread between the highest coin graded and the coins that are only 1 point less.
I try to call them as I see them. If a customer gave me a want list for a Bust Dollar I'd tell him the market is currently speculative and there is room to get hurt badly. If he tells me go ahead and get the coin for him I'll do it, but it's his call. My opinion is that prices are a high right now and might settle down, but that's my opinion not a fact.
And when I tell you that I have no faith in these wonder coin modern pieces, that's what I believe. You can call me stupid, but that's my opinion.
<< <i>You can call me stupid, but that's my opinion. >>
They better noy call Billy stupid, just respect your opinion whether one agrees or not.....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
This is a point I've made in the past about the premiums being paid for one point grade differences. Everyone is free to form their own sense of value but there are a number of other important factors (absolute rarity, historical significants, grade and eye appeal) that I consider in assessing a coin's value. Grade never makes up anywhere close to 99% of my value assessment.
<< <i>One way to view the original post is as a suggestion to newbies to go bargain hunting. Buying ``the best'' isn't exactly the ``best that you can afford.'' And, buying the best in a hot series generally means that you are more likely paying full value as opposed to getting a bargain. Time has shown that there are always exceptions, but they are unpredictable.
EVP >>
It is certainly logical to buy coins at just lower than the grades where large
price jumps occur. Often these jumps are caused by market forces which are
long lasting, but we're in this to make coin collections not profits, right? The
same forces which made large jumps between the top two tiers of moderns
can just as easily cause another jump to occur just under the
second tier coins. With the distribution of most of the moderns in terms of grade
there are likely to be a series of jumps should demand become significant.
<< <i>
The idea that continues to come up in this discussion is that coins without the special FS designation are unworthy of serious collectors. It is as if the difficulty in finding certain attributes justifies the price increase, whether the overall look is that much better or only slightly better. >>
With moderns there tends to be a much higher correlation between strenght of
strike of any random high point and overall strike quality than there is with the
classic coins. This is largely because a relatively high percentage of the dies ex-
hibit great wear and/or are set too far apart. This isn't to say collectors in the
future won't differentiate these by some design element, indeed there is already
interest in the desigation of Full Band Roosies. There is however, less justification
for differentiation.
There is nothing wrong with collecting ANY coin in ANY grade. If one feels that a
coin is a better value or is equally enjoyable in a lower grade then he should be
able to buy it without fear of being taken to task by other collectors. Those who
look down their noses at other collectors are elitist snobs.
<< <i>
With a $2,000 modern that got to that level because it is in slab brand X with grade Z on it, the price decline can be breath taking. Even the market is giving us clues about that. Just look at the spread between the highest coin graded and the coins that are only 1 point less.
>>
The modern market is an infant market. There are growing pains and these will continue
for some time. There are relatively few books on these coins so it's impossible to just look
it up as one would do with th classics. Even the price guides are not accurate even for the
low grade coins. How can one expect the high grade coins to have an up to date price list?
This is why it's necessary to do your homework, to actually get out and see what coins are
available from the many different sources. Otherwise one may end up buying coins that are
relatively common and hyped. This will also protect one from buying coins which have low
pops primarily because the extant examples have yet to be slabbed. No, the moderns are
not for the feignt of heart or those who like to stick to the beaten path. But for those with
a spirit of adventure and an open mind, many of these make a wonderful collection and an
exciting opportunity.
<< <i>
This is a point I've made in the past about the premiums being paid for one point grade differences. Everyone is free to form their own sense of value but there are a number of other important factors (absolute rarity, historical significants, grade and eye appeal) that I consider in assessing a coin's value. >>
Not all moderns are common. Some are quite rare. Some moderns can be very
elusive just in a nice attractive condition. All of your pricing components are factored
into a coin's value by the market. But in point of fact none of these is critical to the
price of any coin; classic, ancient, or modern. Of primary importance is demand.
I hope nothing I said is interpreted as modern bashing. My intent isn't to bash just state my humble opinion.
"Not all moderns are common. Some are quite rare. Some moderns can be very elusive just in a nice attractive condition."
If I interpret "elusive just in nice attractive condition" to mean the differences you might find in the higher grades it still puts the emphasis (and reason behind the tremendous premiums paid) on what in many cases is a one point difference in grade. Again my personal sense of value limits how much of a premium I'd pay for a one point difference in grade. That premium would never come close to making up 99% of the value of the coin.
Of course if you have Bill Gates money all of this is immaterial. For the person looking to maximize the bang for their numismatic buck IMHO you're better off buying the next grade lower (rather than paying 10X ~ 100x grade rarity premiums) and use the money saved to buy a nice example of another coin you'd like to add to your collection.
No not in the least. I know you're not a big fan of moderns but nothing you
said was bashing. Obviously no one has to be a fan.
When I said that many moderns are elusive just in a nice attractive condition,
I meant that nice MS-63 coins can be elusive. Many moderns are tough to find
in grades all the way down. The size of the modern set has become very large.
Throw in the varieties and the various grade ranges in both circ and unc and this
set is enormous.
<< <i>cladking,
Why do you feel the need to respond to every "modern bashing" (as you put it) thread? You seem to always be defensive about them. I understand that you are a fan but I don't think anyone is trying to tear them down.
>>
Many newbies get turned off by the ubiquitous slamming of these coins. By the time the
typical new collector has been around for a short time he has been insulted and had his
collecting tastes insulted repeatedly. Newbies need pretty thick skin to stay around and
this no doubt has a significant effect on the retention of these people. The modern market
will continue to grow for years in any case but down the road the number of collectors who
stick around will become critical. It will first be critical to the prices of the less rare modern
coins and then it will become critical to the prices of the classics. In twenty five years the
hobby will either be much smaller or large percentages of existing collectors will have gotten
their start with state quarters. Some may have a hard time accepting this, but ask yourself
this: If significant numbers of people do not begin collecting when the hobby has this huge
opportunity then what better event might come along in the future?
There are no alternatives. For the best possible future for the hobby it is imperative that we
encourage the newbies. No, I am not advocating that we get them to spend large amounts
of money for small increases in grade (far from it). I am suggesting that we shouldn't tell
them their holy grail is trash or clad crap. I am suggesting that when a thread gets going
by people enjoying a conversation about some esoteric modern that they do not need to be
interrupted to be told that it's overpriced junk and that real men collect something else nor
do they need a warning about how fast prices come down. I am suggesting that if you can't
help to encourage the newbies that you at least refrain from discouraging them.
I do think (as I mentioned in an early thread started by Braddick) that we should discourage new collectors from developing an undue focus on grade and broaden their perception of the hobby to a more balanced view that encompasses the historical, artistic and scientific aspects of numismatics.
I keep hearing this crap that new collectors are being scared away from the hobby. I have never read a thread once that claimed collecting coins from your change (or bank rolls etc) is bad and seen criticism for doing it. I must have missed these constant bashing threads. While I have seen a few threads claiming someone shouldn't buy plastic rarities, most of the posts claim "I would never do that", not "you should never do that". This thread is one persons opinion of what they think is a crazy trend. If you want to buy the coins, go for it. This year I have seen people make big money and lose big money. The funny thing is, I know of examples where it is the exact same coin, and the big loss was the end result. Others will have opposite examples.
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
EVP, your comment on my post "The original post itself is just a post. I found it to be more of a warning than anything else, but I also did NOT consider it to be limited to moderns. Those who view the original post as a moderns-bashing message can't see the forest for the trees."
my comment on your comment "EVP you quoted my remark and then made the above remark. I said abosolutely nothing about modern bashing in my post. I did say that the original post was inflammatory, and it was. Normally I agree with you, but this time you did not read my post correctly. My point is that a lot of people justify what they collect by bashing what others collect. The guy was ripping MS66FS 2002 nickels without having the slightest idea of how tough it is to find one. If he is satisfied with a lesser coin, fine. But why knock someone who wants a FS Jefferson. People often use advice to dictate to others what they should or shouldn't collect. I have seen it all to often. I never do it myself, and I don't like it when someone else does it. I recently posted a thread where I extoled all areas of coin collectiing from moderns to ancients. Few commented postively on that thread, perhaps you did, I did not check, mdwoods"
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
My original post was not meant as a warning. However, the more I think about it the more I feel a warning may be in order. If prices are supported by intense competition for relatively few different series of coins, what happens when collectors interest goes elsewhere? Collectors will still covet beautiful 1945 dimes and 2002 nickels, but just maybe they will be satisfied with the overall look of an MS-66 coin and not become so transfixed upon getting an FB or FS on the coins' holders.
As far as prices realized from one slab to another, its the same as one dealer to another, respect brings money! Put a coin in a respected dealers hands and the coin gains value, same with a respected slab, take it out and down she goes! Im talking sight unseen! THIS WOULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THERE WERE NO REGISTRY!
Come on you old timers, show us old dogs can learn new tricks!
"As far as prices realized from one slab to another, its the same as one dealer to another, respect brings money!"
Your statement above is to a certain extend true but it's only true because there is such an undue emphasis (IMHO) on the minor differences that make up one point grade differences in the higher MS grades. When that one point difference in grade results in a 10X ~ 100X premium you want as much expert backing of the grade as you can get.
Someone mentioned the difficulty of finding FS Jeffersons in a particular year as justification for the significant premiums paid for these coins. That may be the case but whether a coins is FS or 95% FS is not a very important factor with respect to the overall coin (again, IMHO) and does not account for, in my estimation of value, 90% of the coins value. I personally don't putting that kind of focus on what I believe is a minor cosmetic detail. I would gladly settle for a 90% FS or a 90% FSB or FBL at 20% of the price and use the money saved to purchase other coins or maybe even a numismatic or history book.
By the way speaking of Jefferson and books if you haven't already done so you've got to read David McCullough's "John Adams." It's a wonderful book! I read it a while back but just saw David McCullough on C-span talking about how writing the book came about. His intend, as an expert on Jefferson, was to write a book about Jefferson and Adams using Adams as a contrast to highlight Jefferson. The more he learn about Adams the more he became intrigued by this relatively little known historical figure as he (McCullough) began to discover that Adams was probably more influential in the decision to declare independence from England then any other single individual. Althought Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence much of what is written in the Declaration are issues Adams verbally argued during the sometimes heated debates in the Continential Congress.
Anyway, it's a wonderful book with a tremendous amount of information and insight about the birth and early development of our Nation.