The fact of the matter is that the modern coin promoters have no idea how many high grade modern coins might be out there that are yet to be slabbed. They also don’t know if the bubble will burst on these high priced condition rarities, and collectors will cease to be willing to pay huge premiums for marginal increases in preservation. All they do know is that they have been able to acquire something at face value or perhaps a little more, pay $15 to $125 to get it in a slab, and if the they win the slab lottery, sell these condition rarities to collectors at very high prices.
To me this is a scenario for a “real” market. If you sell a coin for $8,000, you should be willing to pay at least $7,000 for a piece in the same grade and holder. If you are not willing to pay any more than a couple thousand or if you tell your customer, "I'm not buying right now, but you can stick it in my auction," it’s just a “roach motel” market where the buyers check in but can’t checkout with prices that are commiserate with what they have paid. From what I’ve seen of the modern market, it looks like a very risky “roach motel” situation to me.
And if you think that I am biased against modern coins only, I’ll tell you the same thing applies to common date high grade “classic coins” that have huge increases in price for marginal improvements in preservation. They are bad buys too.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>nucklehead; << let's see they get bashed because there were 1,323,232,2323,432 minted every year of exsistance. >>
This is a reference to the Morgans right?
Lets look at the 3rd year of issue SanFransisco Mint coins from the Morgan dollar and compare it to the 3rd year issue of the SBA$.
1880S Morgan original mintage = 8,900,000 1981S Susan B. Anthony mintage= 3,492,000
1880S PCGS MS65 POP = 27,000 (includes prooflikes) Pop Higher 9,000 (including 6 MS69 coins) 1981S PCGS MS65 POP = 188 Pop Higher 68 (all MS66)
Is this a result of the 1981S not being searched and graded? I offered $10,000 for the first MS67 1981S to be graded almost 2 years ago. I believe the MS66 POP has gone up by 8 in this time. No one has found a MS67!
The 1981S in MS66 sells for about $500 so there is ample reason to search and grade these coins. However, the 1981S was not saved in bags of $1,000 and can not be found by the roll easily. If they are found this way they most certainly have been searched.
Collect what you like, but telling people that a high grade Morgan is a good investment and that a high grade SBA$ is a terrible one is classic misinformation. I have searched thousands of these coins and I know how rare high grade examples are. >>
No, I thought IndianHeadMan was referring to 1,323,232,232,343 state quarters, DRG.
Friends are Gods way of apologizing for your relatives.
There will still be thousands of these moderns saved in Mint State, many more than any of the "classics" had saved. Just because I don't feel that they are worth any more in MS68 than in MS65 doesn't mean you shouldn't want them. Ultra condition rarity will never be the same as true rarity "to me" and nothing any one has ever said has given me any reason to change that opinion. >>
This may well apply to SBA's, but it does not apply to all moderns. Moderns are a huge area and this is one of their best attractions. There are many scarce and rare moderns. This includes coins made in small numbers like some commems. It includes coins made in astronomical numbers which no one both- ered to save. It includes varieties which went into circulation and may have had EVERY SINGLE EXAMPLE WORN TO LOW GRADE. Some of these will be rare above F! It includes many extremely rare examples of a wide variety of coins. Moderns can be collected on any budget, and the chances of future profit are extremely high even if your total "investment" is extremely low. Your chances of enjoying these coins on a limited budget are astronomical.
Supply is totally irrelevant to collectability or value anyway. The value of collectables is determied almost solely by demand. Moderns are the fastest growing segment of the market and this will continue for years despite the best efforts of the naysayers.
Your "rare" varieties will never be valuable without demand. There will never be demand until someone takes the time and writes a book detailing them. Even then, there is no guarantee anyone outside of a small select group will ever care. You may not believe this, but most classic series have many varieties also. Many of these are extremely rare, even when the mintage of the date/MM in question is high. You can still find these for low premiums over the common examples because not many really care. Why this would be different for all moderns I do not know. Not sure of any coin minted in the last 50 years you cannot find in MS condition. But I will have to take your word for it, as you are the expert. Regardless, it still does not make me want to run out and buy any.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
<< <i>DRG you make a good point about the guy that saved the 1836 Bust half or the guy that saved the 1794 Cent. He saved them without the payoff. Why he saved it will never be known. What I do know is that if the mentality then was like it is to day, that is to save those coins in mass amounts like the moderns are being saved those coins today would probably be as valuable as an 1883 No Cent 5C. Now that I think about it people in 1883 were thinking a bit like the modern collectors. >>
Classics: 1794-1878 Neoclassics: 1879- 1964 Modern: 1965- 1998 Ultra Moderns: 1999 to date
Classics were saved in significant numbers for their silver content. If not for this there would be very few around in nice condition for collectors. This is not to say all classics ar common or shouldn't be collected.
People saved the 1883 nickel because they think like people; If something is different than it must be very collectable.
People did not save the moderns. This is not to say there are none around or they must be very valuable or collectable. But the moderns pretty much all went into circulation where the survivors are still found. Though the early ones are now about half gone, the survivors are mostly heavily worn because people never had cause to save the same 'ol same ol'.
Your thinking still reflects the majority view which has prevailed since 1964.
If you've seen one ugly Ike, you've seen 'em all. >>
It may be possible to see all of one of the classics. But there are more Ikes than stars in the sky or blue in the sea. One could never see even an infintesimal percentage of all the Ikes.
I have never had any trouble getting any post 64 coin in Mint State. Must just be me. As for the 1883 Nickel, they were saved because everyone thought they were going to be recalled and thus worth more (didn't turn out that way). If you want to tell me it is easier to find a Seated or Barber Quarter in Mint State for every given year/mint than one 100 years later (a modern), I have a hard time buying that. While you disagree, I would bet that multiples more moderns were saved in Mint State than coins for 100 years before. The morgans are not an example as very few were ever released into circulation. But the rest were. So, which of the post 64 Date/MM are simply unobtainable in Mint State?
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
<< <i> They also don’t know if the bubble will burst on these high priced condition rarities, and collectors will cease to be willing to pay huge premiums for marginal increases in preservation. >>
I'm surprised dealers don't worry about a newbie backlash. They spend so much time and effort slamming modern coins. Many of these people won't quit collecting just because of the continual harrassment and will be the next generation of collectors. These dealers seem confident that the "newbies" will forget the many admonishments to collect something else. Why would a dealer ex- pose himself to this backlash? What can he gain from it?
I don't know if I agree with this, but I was once told that the best way to determine if some collectable is truly valuable is to show it to a layman that has no knowledge or interest in the collectable and see what their reaction is.
Case in point: If you showed someone who has no interest or knowledge in rare coins a 1797 Bust Dollar in PCGS VG10, and a Sac Dollar in PCGS MS69..........my guess is the lay person would say something like......
VG Bust Dollar: "Wow, that's really cool, was that really made in 1797, I'll bet something like that is worth a lot of money".
MS69 Sac Dollar: "Hey, isn't that one of those new golden dollars, what's it doing in that plastic holder thingy"?
<< <i>The fact of the matter is that the modern coin promoters have no idea how many high grade modern coins might be out there that are yet to be slabbed.
To me this is a scenario for a “real” market. If you sell a coin for $8,000, you should be willing to pay at least $7,000 for a piece in the same grade and holder. If you are not willing to pay any more than a couple thousand or if you tell your customer, "I'm not buying right now, but you can stick it in my auction," it’s just a “roach motel” market where the buyers check in but can’t checkout with prices that are commiserate with what they have paid.
>>
Someone isn't paying attention. The modern market is much larger than a few coins which are easier to buy than to sell. There are many modern coins being bought and sold for high prices. More importantly, there are many modern coins being bought and sold for low yet rapidly increasing prices. There are also modern coins available in circulation at face value!! Perhaps some people round off the prices they charge to the nearest $100 so they don't risk having to deal with a lot of notes and coin.
Speaking for collectors; There are many people now who have a very good idea how many of some of these coins were produced and how many survived.
Obviously someone doesn't know and would just as soon keep it that way!
<< <i>Your "rare" varieties will never be valuable without demand. There will never be demand until someone takes the time and writes a book detailing them. Even then, there is no guarantee anyone outside of a small select group will ever care. You may not believe this, but most classic series have many varieties also. Many of these are extremely rare, even when the mintage of the date/MM in question is high. You can still find these for low premiums over the common examples because not many really care. Why this would be different for all moderns I do not know. Not sure of any coin minted in the last 50 years you cannot find in MS condition. But I will have to take your word for it, as you are the expert. Regardless, it still does not make me want to run out and buy any. >>
I love varieties on all coins, tokens and medals. When people started collecting coins in this country they didn't even care about mint marks! They didn't really need to because there were plenty of rare dates to keep them occupied. Mintages went up and they needed some- thing more to differentiate the common from the rare so they began looking for the tougher mint marks. Mintages have continued to increase so they became more grade conscious. Each time these new trends have extended themselves back to the earlier coins also.
People are also starting to discover varieties. This is probably caused by their desire to further separate the common from the rare. But in any case, there are circulating varieties. These are available right from pocket change for a most nominal cost. There are hundreds of thousands of people starting collections from circulation and many of these are to be found or discovered. There is no more gaurantee that these will become popular than there is of anything else, but it would seem to be the trend and is consistent with human nature.
If it does catch on then you'll probably see a lot of increased interest in classic varieties also.
Dam: I agree with you.My friend has bags of silver dollars and bags of silver 10 25 50 cent pieces.He also has rolls (2) of Indian Heads and many,many rolls of wheaties. These coins were left to him by his father and uncle.I've seen these bags but he would not let me go through them.He did not want to know the value because he does not want to be tempted to sell them.He is 61 and his father and uncle died around 25 years ago.There's no telling whats in those bags.Do you realize how many more people have stashes like that? A lot of people do not think in these terms.They only go by the POP reports and even those are not right.I just thought I mention this.
<< <i>I have never had any trouble getting any post 64 coin in Mint State. Must just be me. As for the 1883 Nickel, they were saved because everyone thought they were going to be recalled and thus worth more (didn't turn out that way). If you want to tell me it is easier to find a Seated or Barber Quarter in Mint State for every given year/mint than one 100 years later (a modern), I have a hard time buying that. While you disagree, I would bet that multiples more moderns were saved in Mint State than coins for 100 years before. The morgans are not an example as very few were ever released into circulation. But the rest were. So, which of the post 64 Date/MM are simply unobtainable in Mint State? >>
Most of the regular issue moderns are more comon than most of the Barbers in mint state. Indeed, this would be close to being universally true. The Barbers were not saved in extremely large numbers and have had many years of attrition. Far more years than the moderns, though the attrition on moderns is much higher. There are some diffrences though. A nice unc Barber was the rule. These coins were struck with much more care. Most were well struck with serviceable dies. Many made it out of the mint with little or no damage. Well struck nicely preserved specimens were more likely since the numbers were greater. Most moderns are not well struck and were banged up at the mint. This is part of the reason that so few were saved. Most mint state examples come from mint sets since so few were saved. Even from this source, quality is often lacking. If large numbers of people decide they want a nice attractive set of moderns, they will find there is inadequate supply. Many gems are even rare! Moderns have always been unappreciated not because they are common, but because there is no demand. There is no demand because they are percieved as common, low quality, and now over-priced.
There may not be several of the varieties in mint state. Any of the early type "d" reverse quarters come to mind, especially the 1977.
Comments
To me this is a scenario for a “real” market. If you sell a coin for $8,000, you should be willing to pay at least $7,000 for a piece in the same grade and holder. If you are not willing to pay any more than a couple thousand or if you tell your customer, "I'm not buying right now, but you can stick it in my auction," it’s just a “roach motel” market where the buyers check in but can’t checkout with prices that are commiserate with what they have paid. From what I’ve seen of the modern market, it looks like a very risky “roach motel” situation to me.
And if you think that I am biased against modern coins only, I’ll tell you the same thing applies to common date high grade “classic coins” that have huge increases in price for marginal improvements in preservation. They are bad buys too.
<< <i>nucklehead; << let's see they get bashed because there were 1,323,232,2323,432 minted every year of exsistance. >>
This is a reference to the Morgans right?
Lets look at the 3rd year of issue SanFransisco Mint coins from the Morgan dollar and compare it to the 3rd year issue of the SBA$.
1880S Morgan original mintage = 8,900,000
1981S Susan B. Anthony mintage= 3,492,000
1880S PCGS MS65 POP = 27,000 (includes prooflikes) Pop Higher 9,000 (including 6 MS69 coins)
1981S PCGS MS65 POP = 188 Pop Higher 68 (all MS66)
Is this a result of the 1981S not being searched and graded? I offered $10,000 for the first MS67 1981S to be graded almost 2 years ago. I believe the MS66 POP has gone up by 8 in this time. No one has found a MS67!
The 1981S in MS66 sells for about $500 so there is ample reason to search and grade these coins. However, the 1981S was not saved in bags of $1,000 and can not be found by the roll easily. If they are found this way they most certainly have been searched.
Collect what you like, but telling people that a high grade Morgan is a good investment and that a high grade SBA$ is a terrible one is classic misinformation. I have searched thousands of these coins and I know how rare high grade examples are. >>
No, I thought IndianHeadMan was referring to 1,323,232,232,343 state quarters, DRG.
<< <i>
There will still be thousands of these moderns saved in Mint State, many more than any of the "classics" had saved. Just because I don't feel that they are worth any more in MS68 than in MS65 doesn't mean you shouldn't want them. Ultra condition rarity will never be the same as true rarity "to me" and nothing any one has ever said has given me any reason to change that opinion. >>
This may well apply to SBA's, but it does not apply to all moderns. Moderns are a huge area and this is
one of their best attractions. There are many scarce and rare moderns. This includes coins made in
small numbers like some commems. It includes coins made in astronomical numbers which no one both-
ered to save. It includes varieties which went into circulation and may have had EVERY SINGLE EXAMPLE
WORN TO LOW GRADE. Some of these will be rare above F! It includes many extremely rare examples
of a wide variety of coins. Moderns can be collected on any budget, and the chances of future profit are
extremely high even if your total "investment" is extremely low. Your chances of enjoying these coins on a
limited budget are astronomical.
Supply is totally irrelevant to collectability or value anyway. The value of collectables is determied almost
solely by demand. Moderns are the fastest growing segment of the market and this will continue for years
despite the best efforts of the naysayers.
The most important aspect of coin prices is not how many there are, but how many collectors want one.
dragon
<< <i>DRG you make a good point about the guy that saved the 1836 Bust half or the guy that saved the 1794 Cent. He saved them without the payoff. Why he saved it will never be known. What I do know is that if the mentality then was like it is to day, that is to save those coins in mass amounts like the moderns are being saved those coins today would probably be as valuable as an 1883 No Cent 5C. Now that I think about it people in 1883 were thinking a bit like the modern collectors. >>
Classics: 1794-1878
Neoclassics: 1879- 1964
Modern: 1965- 1998
Ultra Moderns: 1999 to date
Classics were saved in significant numbers for their silver content. If not for this there
would be very few around in nice condition for collectors. This is not to say all classics
ar common or shouldn't be collected.
People saved the 1883 nickel because they think like people; If something is different
than it must be very collectable.
People did not save the moderns. This is not to say there are none around or they must
be very valuable or collectable. But the moderns pretty much all went into circulation where
the survivors are still found. Though the early ones are now about half gone, the survivors
are mostly heavily worn because people never had cause to save the same 'ol same ol'.
Your thinking still reflects the majority view which has prevailed since 1964.
<< <i>
If you've seen one ugly Ike, you've seen 'em all.
It may be possible to see all of one of the classics. But there are more Ikes than stars in the sky or
blue in the sea. One could never see even an infintesimal percentage of all the Ikes.
<< <i> They also don’t know if the bubble will burst on these high priced condition rarities, and collectors will cease to be willing to pay huge premiums for marginal increases in preservation. >>
I'm surprised dealers don't worry about a newbie backlash. They spend so much time and effort
slamming modern coins. Many of these people won't quit collecting just because of the continual
harrassment and will be the next generation of collectors. These dealers seem confident that the
"newbies" will forget the many admonishments to collect something else. Why would a dealer ex-
pose himself to this backlash? What can he gain from it?
Case in point: If you showed someone who has no interest or knowledge in rare coins a 1797 Bust Dollar in PCGS VG10, and a Sac Dollar in PCGS MS69..........my guess is the lay person would say something like......
VG Bust Dollar: "Wow, that's really cool, was that really made in 1797, I'll bet something like that is worth a lot of money".
MS69 Sac Dollar: "Hey, isn't that one of those new golden dollars, what's it doing in that plastic holder thingy"?
dragon
<< <i>The fact of the matter is that the modern coin promoters have no idea how many high grade modern coins might be out there that are yet to be slabbed.
To me this is a scenario for a “real” market. If you sell a coin for $8,000, you should be willing to pay at least $7,000 for a piece in the same grade and holder. If you are not willing to pay any more than a couple thousand or if you tell your customer, "I'm not buying right now, but you can stick it in my auction," it’s just a “roach motel” market where the buyers check in but can’t checkout with prices that are commiserate with what they have paid.
>>
Someone isn't paying attention. The modern market is much larger than a few coins which
are easier to buy than to sell. There are many modern coins being bought and sold for high prices.
More importantly, there are many modern coins being bought and sold for low yet rapidly increasing
prices. There are also modern coins available in circulation at face value!! Perhaps some people
round off the prices they charge to the nearest $100 so they don't risk having to deal with a lot of
notes and coin.
Speaking for collectors; There are many people now who have a very good idea how many of some of
these coins were produced and how many survived.
Obviously someone doesn't know and would just as soon keep it that way!
<< <i>Your "rare" varieties will never be valuable without demand. There will never be demand until someone takes the time and writes a book detailing them. Even then, there is no guarantee anyone outside of a small select group will ever care. You may not believe this, but most classic series have many varieties also. Many of these are extremely rare, even when the mintage of the date/MM in question is high. You can still find these for low premiums over the common examples because not many really care. Why this would be different for all moderns I do not know. Not sure of any coin minted in the last 50 years you cannot find in MS condition. But I will have to take your word for it, as you are the expert. Regardless, it still does not make me want to run out and buy any. >>
I love varieties on all coins, tokens and medals. When people started collecting coins in this
country they didn't even care about mint marks! They didn't really need to because there
were plenty of rare dates to keep them occupied. Mintages went up and they needed some-
thing more to differentiate the common from the rare so they began looking for the tougher
mint marks. Mintages have continued to increase so they became more grade conscious. Each
time these new trends have extended themselves back to the earlier coins also.
People are also starting to discover varieties. This is probably caused by their desire to further
separate the common from the rare. But in any case, there are circulating varieties. These are
available right from pocket change for a most nominal cost. There are hundreds of thousands
of people starting collections from circulation and many of these are to be found or discovered.
There is no more gaurantee that these will become popular than there is of anything else, but
it would seem to be the trend and is consistent with human nature.
If it does catch on then you'll probably see a lot of increased interest in classic varieties also.
because he does not want to be tempted to sell them.He is 61 and his father and uncle died around 25 years ago.There's no telling whats in those bags.Do you realize how many more people have stashes like that? A lot of people do not think in these terms.They only go by the POP reports and even those are not right.I just thought I mention this.
<< <i>I have never had any trouble getting any post 64 coin in Mint State. Must just be me. As for the 1883 Nickel, they were saved because everyone thought they were going to be recalled and thus worth more (didn't turn out that way). If you want to tell me it is easier to find a Seated or Barber Quarter in Mint State for every given year/mint than one 100 years later (a modern), I have a hard time buying that. While you disagree, I would bet that multiples more moderns were saved in Mint State than coins for 100 years before. The morgans are not an example as very few were ever released into circulation. But the rest were. So, which of the post 64 Date/MM are simply unobtainable in Mint State? >>
Most of the regular issue moderns are more comon than most of the Barbers in mint state. Indeed,
this would be close to being universally true. The Barbers were not saved in extremely large numbers
and have had many years of attrition. Far more years than the moderns, though the attrition on moderns
is much higher. There are some diffrences though. A nice unc Barber was the rule. These coins were
struck with much more care. Most were well struck with serviceable dies. Many made it out of the mint
with little or no damage. Well struck nicely preserved specimens were more likely since the numbers were
greater. Most moderns are not well struck and were banged up at the mint. This is part of the reason
that so few were saved. Most mint state examples come from mint sets since so few were saved. Even
from this source, quality is often lacking. If large numbers of people decide they want a nice attractive set
of moderns, they will find there is inadequate supply. Many gems are even rare! Moderns have always
been unappreciated not because they are common, but because there is no demand. There is no demand
because they are percieved as common, low quality, and now over-priced.
There may not be several of the varieties in mint state. Any of the early type "d" reverse quarters come
to mind, especially the 1977.