Where is the floor?

TwoSides2aCoin

Or are we in the basement with silver ?
Floor : $91
Ceiling: Blown off in storm.

derryb

Why silver spot has to come down at all costs.

jmski52

I don't think that the article explains why "silver spot has to come down at all costs".

Overdate

@derryb said:
Why silver spot has to come down at all costs.

The article didn't mention the premium on the Shanghai exchange, where the current price of silver is $104.

derryb

@jmski52 said:
I don't think that the article explains why "silver spot has to come down at all costs".

From the link:
"When MULTIPLE interventions/ margin hikes don’t stop an asset from rising in value, it is clear the CME is losing control. And it has the potential to become a SYSTEMIC issue.

You see, the CME doesn’t just trade silver futures, it trades everything from bonds to stocks to commodities and more. The average daily notional value of CME contracts traded is $11 TRILLION, with the annual trading volume exceeding $1 QUADRILLION (1,000 trillions)!

So… if it turns out the CME is permitting trades WITHOUT actual assets backstopping them… then the door opens to a collapse in the CME as traders panic realizing that they couldn’t take delivery of the items they’re trading even if they tried."

CME (COMEX) will use all of it's tools to keep demand for delivery down. That means keeping the price down, something they have succeeded at for years. The futures markets (not just silver) will fail if CME cannot meet demand for delivery with silver.

derryb

@Overdate said:

@derryb said:
Why silver spot has to come down at all costs.

The article didn't mention the premium on the Shanghai exchange, where the current price of silver is $104.

And why the difference in spot? Think about it.

carew4me

I think the new floor is $60ish

jmski52

CME (COMEX) will use all of it's tools to keep demand for delivery down. That means keeping the price down, something they have succeeded at for years. The futures markets (not just silver) will fail if CME cannot meet demand for delivery with silver.,

It's a real possibility that Comex won't be able to deliver, most likely in March although January deliveries are already way above anticipated demand. The other CME markets may not fail if CME can't meet silver delivery demands, but it would certainly erode trust in a big way.

I think the new floor is $60ish

I don't think a floor has yet been established.

blitzdude

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Or are we in the basement with silver ?
Floor : $91
Ceiling: Blown off in storm.

Gutter floor mid $20's I suspect. Initial drop will be swift and painful for the bag holders. It won't do there all at once, probably collapse to $50ish then slowly drift down comparable to 2011. RGDS!

TwoSides2aCoin

@blitzdude said:

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Or are we in the basement with silver ?
Floor : $91
Ceiling: Blown off in storm.

Gutter floor mid $20's I suspect. Initial drop will be swift and painful for the bag holders. It won't do there all at once, probably collapse to $50ish then slowly drift down comparable to 2011. RGDS!

You’re definitely funnier than the late night television hosts, KFC : Kimmel, Fallon, Colbert.

Göttinger

Good question...

Here in Germany I noticed that from 1.50€ per gram onwards (= 55 Dollars per Troy ounce), it got pretty hard to sell scrap silver and foreign circulating silver coins close to spot price.
It seems like this was the tipping point where the majority of collectors and investors felt well about the future prospect of their purchases.
Due to a tax issue, investment grade 999 fine coins and bars still go for a premium, but it's not uncommon to find other domestic and foreign circulating coins for 20 - 25% under spot price.
Most refiners are paying well back of spot price, usually around 20%. Some even entirely stopped buying silver and it may take weeks before they pay you for the metals you sent in.

To make a long story short, I suppose the bottom may be between 50 and 60 Dollars, when people still felt comfortable buying silver as a long-term hold.

TwoSides2aCoin

It appears silver can’t find its footing.

rte592

@TwoSides2aCoin said:

@blitzdude said:

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Or are we in the basement with silver ?
Floor : $91
Ceiling: Blown off in storm.

Gutter floor mid $20's I suspect. Initial drop will be swift and painful for the bag holders. It won't do there all at once, probably collapse to $50ish then slowly drift down comparable to 2011. RGDS!

You’re definitely funnier than the late night television hosts, KFC : Kimmel, Fallon, Colbert.

To be Honest, that Bar isn't real high

jmski52

@blitzdude said:

Gutter floor mid $20's I suspect. Initial drop will be swift and painful for the bag holders. It won't do there all at once, probably collapse to $50ish then slowly drift down comparable to 2011. RGDS!

Golly, if I were you - I would hurry up and dump all of that physical silver before that "swift and painful initial drop".

What's the holdup?

HATTRICK

Tether is the Hunt Brothers of gold. Take the time to see who is behind it. Eventually the crash will be Epic. Look before you leap into bankruptcy . 🤑🤑🤑

TwoSides2aCoin

Are we in the cellar, yet ?

MsMorrisine

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
Are we in the cellar, yet ?

no

fc

A temporary short term floor? Probably 80 until the next drop. I do think silver will be under 40 again.

jmlanzaf

@fc said:
A temporary short term floor? Probably 80 until the next drop. I do think silver will be under 40 again.

$40 is aggressive. I can see it down in that range but I'm not sure it will go under it any time soon.

HATTRICK

The unwinding has begun. That dead cat will hit solid rock. There will be no bounce.🙀😿

jmlanzaf

@HATTRICK said:
The unwinding has begun. That dead cat will hit solid rock. There will be no bounce.🙀😿

Already did bounce at $75. Monday should be interesting.

blitzdude

@fc said:
A temporary short term floor? Probably 80 until the next drop. I do think silver will be under 40 again.

Well under $40 when it's all said and done. I believe we will see $10K green boxes again. RGDS!

Texas77

@jmlanzaf said:

@HATTRICK said:
The unwinding has begun. That dead cat will hit solid rock. There will be no bounce.🙀😿

Already did bounce at $75. Monday should be interesting.

$75 was the 50 day moving average, a key indicator for support. Not surprising it was the bounce today. Has a chance of holding $75 as the low, but if mid 70s break down could step all the way back to low 50s, which was the start of the parabolic move.

TwoSides2aCoin

@blitzdude said:

@fc said:
A temporary short term floor? Probably 80 until the next drop. I do think silver will be under 40 again.

Well under $40 when it's all said and done. I believe we will see $10K green boxes again. RGDS!

Oddly, I bought a monster box yesterday for $55,750. The market jumped and sold it 2 hours later for $59,400. Called buyer today and asked, “ want to sell a monster box ?
He laughed and said , “ no, order me another one”.

HATTRICK

@jmlanzaf said:

@HATTRICK said:
The unwinding has begun. That dead cat will hit solid rock. There will be no bounce.🙀😿

Already did bounce at $75. Monday should be interesting.

More like a thump than a bounce. Will the same parties throw that dead cat over the cliff on Monday ? Put your helmet on and strap in. Monday could be Epic. 🙀😹😹😹

HATTRICK

My thoughts and prayers to those who were suckered in along the way .🙏

softparade

@HATTRICK said:
My thoughts and prayers to those who were suckered in along the way .🙏

Bliz offspring? lolzzz

jmlanzaf

@HATTRICK said:
My thoughts and prayers to those who were suckered in along the way .🙏

I've got 3 billion other people I'd rather pray for.

HATTRICK

@jmlanzaf said:

@HATTRICK said:
My thoughts and prayers to those who were suckered in along the way .🙏

I've got 3 billion other people I'd rather pray for.

No hope for them. Only 85 seconds until midnight. 💀☄️🔥

roadrunner

@HATTRICK said:
My thoughts and prayers to those who were suckered in along the way .🙏

Thank you. I was first suckered in from as early as $4/oz over 20 yrs ago. And must admit I got suckered in a final time 2 yrs ago by buying 500+ oz in 90% around the $20/oz level. I feel so abused.

If you remember the silver rise from 2003 to 2011, today is just like 2008......a wave 4. Recall that silver dropped from $21 to $9 that year. It looked OVER. It then recovered to $19 within a year, and then to $49 before it was done during the final wave 5. We still have a wave 5 ahead of us in gold and silver. The next MAJOR bottom in the 8.6 confidence/business cycle isn't until summer 2028....when PMs should peak strongly yet again....very similar to their peaks in 2011 and 2020.

Overdate

Still over $120 in Shanghai.

Goldminers

@Overdate said:
Still over $120 in Shanghai.

I see it in China after the dip currently at 733 yuan or $105. If that holds over the weekend, there is a reasonable chance Sunday night silver futures will drift up from the $85. New month, new options, less leverage.

jmlanzaf

@Overdate said:
Still over $120 in Shanghai.

So, your theory is that they are stupid and want to pay a $40 premium? Or we're stupid and want to accept a $40 discount?

fathom

Suffice to say next week will be interesting....

MsMorrisine

it's saturday in shanghai is it even open?

Overdate

@MsMorrisine said:
it's saturday in shanghai is it even open?

Closing price Friday afternoon (their time), but I believe that silver was well under $100 here by that point.

blitzdude

Shanghai closed at 15:45 (3:45PM) Friday Afternoon. That is 2:45AM EST NY time. Gutter was trading at $107USD at 2:45AM on Friday morning 1/30/26. Trading in Shanghai doesn't resume again until Monday morning. RGDS!

carew4me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_B7ob_kV0I

TwoSides2aCoin

So, where is the floor ? Your “short term” prediction. Mine was $91. Obviously way off. I’m going to lower that to $80. Of course, that means I currently think it’s in the basement.

Let us see what this month brings

MsMorrisine

$45

coastaljerseyguy

Appears some over-leverage Chinese PM trader/firm went missing Friday after suffering major losses, ~ 140MM USD. Seems like Chinese govt backed entities even traded through them. Appears was heavily into trading manipulation that couldn't be unwound. Left other side of trades unprotected. Things like this scare folks and wonder if contagious, even if isolated. Not sure their overall contract positions, but with losses in the hundred million assuming contracts over billion. Maybe traders are just cutting losses and going to sit on sidelines for a while to make sure no other shoes drop.

derryb

floor? everyone missed it

BruceS

$65, says my crystal ball..

blitzdude

$23 THKS!

Maywood

I don’t know the mechanics of how all this works or where a ceiling, floor or basement might be. But if I accept that PM Prices work opposite the US Dollar then I hope it falls and stays where it belongs.

I know where the Kitchen is and where the Grocery Store is. The hell with Gold and Silver stacked in someone’s safe, I like to eat and feed my family.

fathom

If it gets to $23 you won't find it.

blitzdude

@fathom said:
If it gets to $23 you won't find it.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard that I'd be a billionaire. There is no shortage and there will be plenty available at $20 just as there was at $100. THKS!

MsMorrisine

we weren't done melting alloyed silver!

softparade

@blitzdude said:

@fathom said:
If it gets to $23 you won't find it.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard that I'd be a billionaire. There is no shortage and there will be plenty available at $20 just as there was at $100. THKS!

lol

taxmad

@blitzdude said:

There is no shortage and there will be plenty available at $20 just as there was at $100. THKS!

With the amount of silverware and jewelry that came out of cabinets and cupboards, my guess is the metal in circulation has spiked quite a bit...

s4ny

Big move up in Gold Futures at 7:45 EST Monday. +3.5%