I've got a good number of coins in my primary non-US collecting interesting that presumably fall into the category covered by the theme of this thread. I've bought a disproportionate percentage of the better coins I'm aware of for 15 years. Yes, there is less competition, but only a tiny fraction of US coinage is harder to buy than these. When I look at Coin Facts, I hardly ever see the Condition Census with so few examples that a determined buyer with the money can't buy one fitting the sentiments of this thread in a "reasonable" timeframe.
I've owned some of these over 20 years and still waiting over 20 years for a few I wish I had bought to show up again. The three "name collection" sales of this segment since I've been a collector occurred in 1988, 1991, and 1996. Some might be in the TPG data now, some I might actually already own, but mostly, I either haven't or don't believe I have seen any of it. I presume to the extent it sold it probably traded privately.
When prices just get too intolerable in your numismatic specialty, why not re-direct your collecting efforts to a “ niche “ field that is far more affordable , which is still challenging, and where ridiculous market value differences are not governed by a + or a single grade number or a green or gold sticker.
I've never been a big budget collector, but this was behind my decision when I resumed collecting in 1998. My budget was lower than now, but prices might have increased even more for anything I really want(ed) to buy.
In my previous collecting iterations, I almost exclusively collected US coinage but have not since 1998 and never looked back.
I also did it by switching from one non-US segment to my current one in 2010. That market became too inflated with too many financially motivated buyers.
@airplanenut said:
One part of my collection is extremely niche, and very few pieces come up for sale, let alone ones that I don’t already have. To a certain degree, my MO is to win any item I’m after.
Same here, within "reason", but the buyer has to be willing to treat the purchase at least partially as a hobby expense sunk cost and not an "investment", which is what many buyers (not just coin collectors) do to rationalize paying a price they otherwise would not pay.
I have the money to buy coins I don't normally buy, but no, I can't actually afford everything I have the money to buy.
Sure, and then it depends on how you treat your collection. Apart from possibly upgrading later, my intention is to never sell this part of my collection, so the only reason cost comes into play is that if another example comes along at a way better price, I’ll lose out having bought the more expensive one. Otherwise, everything is money I’ll never see again, and that’s okay—I’ve already planned it that way.
@4Redisin said:
I'm surprised you didn't save a few. Anyway, everything that goes through auction is "yours" to play with for a short time. That's better than ownership in many ways. Thanks for posting with us "little guys". It is amazing to me the coins that other members own and share.
No need to thank me - I enjoy participating here (at least most of the time😉).
And I don’t think in terms of “little guys” or other such classifications. But rather, considerations such as good, helpful contributors, interesting, fun participants, etc.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@airplanenut said:
One part of my collection is extremely niche, and very few pieces come up for sale, let alone ones that I don’t already have. To a certain degree, my MO is to win any item I’m after.
Same here, within "reason", but the buyer has to be willing to treat the purchase at least partially as a hobby expense sunk cost and not an "investment", which is what many buyers (not just coin collectors) do to rationalize paying a price they otherwise would not pay.
I have the money to buy coins I don't normally buy, but no, I can't actually afford everything I have the money to buy.
Sure, and then it depends on how you treat your collection. Apart from possibly upgrading later, my intention is to never sell this part of my collection, so the only reason cost comes into play is that if another example comes along at a way better price, I’ll lose out having bought the more expensive one. Otherwise, everything is money I’ll never see again, and that’s okay—I’ve already planned it that way.
Agree, I don't buy coins for "investment".
I mostly buy coins in the $250-$1250 range. If I already own a nice one and a second comes up that's nice too, I'll try to buy it, just not with the same motivation. I've also upgraded but seldom sold those I have. Sometimes I buy the duplicate because it has less circulation. Other times due to better "originality", color, or a better strike.
@4Redisin said:
It's great to see all these variables indicating there is no such thing as a complete answer. Therefore, sometimes you want to be the winning bidder and sometimes you eventually are glad you were not.
All bets are off for winning bidders when the market drops from historic highs. That's why you better be collecting for fun with money you can afford to burn. The historically monster coins are probably immune from much of this. I would not know because I've never spent over 2K for any collectable that did not fire bullets.
Not even “historically monster coins” are immune from much of this. Even fantastic coins are subject to declines in value, especially if purchased for too strong of a price (or even at the right price, but at the wrong time).
Thanks, you should know price history better than most. Care to say if you collect coins?
I haven’t collected coins for a long time, though I did, off and on for roughly thirty years.
Mark, do you possibly see yourself putting together a small collection ever again? Perhaps when retirement comes along, and you may not be hands on with coins like you are now?
Or is it difficult to get excited about a coin now, considering that you have, for all intents and purposes, “seen it all”?
Dan, while I’m not certain, I think it’s doubtful that I’ll collect coins again. By virtue of the ones I’ve personally handled while conducting my own business, graded when I was with NGC and seen, while working for Heritage, I’m very badly spoiled.
That said, there are still occasions when I see coins that make me do a double take, cause my pulse rate to increase and make me fall in love.
And many of them are even affordable. 😁
I can appreciate a (edited for typo) spectacular looking common, low value coin about as much as I can a five, six, seven or eight figure one.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@4Redisin said:
It's great to see all these variables indicating there is no such thing as a complete answer. Therefore, sometimes you want to be the winning bidder and sometimes you eventually are glad you were not.
All bets are off for winning bidders when the market drops from historic highs. That's why you better be collecting for fun with money you can afford to burn. The historically monster coins are probably immune from much of this. I would not know because I've never spent over 2K for any collectable that did not fire bullets.
Not even “historically monster coins” are immune from much of this. Even fantastic coins are subject to declines in value, especially if purchased for too strong of a price (or even at the right price, but at the wrong time).
Thanks, you should know price history better than most. Care to say if you collect coins?
I haven’t collected coins for a long time, though I did, off and on for roughly thirty years.
Mark, do you possibly see yourself putting together a small collection ever again? Perhaps when retirement comes along, and you may not be hands on with coins like you are now?
Or is it difficult to get excited about a coin now, considering that you have, for all intents and purposes, “seen it all”?
Dan, while I’m not certain, I think it’s doubtful that I’ll collect coins again. By virtue of the ones I’ve personally handled while conducting my own business, graded when I was with NGC and seen, while working for Heritage, I’m very badly spoiled.
That said, there are still occasions when I see coins that make me do a double take, cause my pulse rate to increase and make me fall in love.
And many of them are even affordable. 😁
I can appreciate a spectacle looking common, low value coin about as much as I can a five, six, seven or eight figure one.
@4Redisin said:
It's great to see all these variables indicating there is no such thing as a complete answer. Therefore, sometimes you want to be the winning bidder and sometimes you eventually are glad you were not.
All bets are off for winning bidders when the market drops from historic highs. That's why you better be collecting for fun with money you can afford to burn. The historically monster coins are probably immune from much of this. I would not know because I've never spent over 2K for any collectable that did not fire bullets.
Not even “historically monster coins” are immune from much of this. Even fantastic coins are subject to declines in value, especially if purchased for too strong of a price (or even at the right price, but at the wrong time).
Thanks, you should know price history better than most. Care to say if you collect coins?
I haven’t collected coins for a long time, though I did, off and on for roughly thirty years.
Mark, do you possibly see yourself putting together a small collection ever again? Perhaps when retirement comes along, and you may not be hands on with coins like you are now?
Or is it difficult to get excited about a coin now, considering that you have, for all intents and purposes, “seen it all”?
Dan, while I’m not certain, I think it’s doubtful that I’ll collect coins again. By virtue of the ones I’ve personally handled while conducting my own business, graded when I was with NGC and seen, while working for Heritage, I’m very badly spoiled.
That said, there are still occasions when I see coins that make me do a double take, cause my pulse rate to increase and make me fall in love.
And many of them are even affordable. 😁
I can appreciate a spectacle looking common, low value coin about as much as I can a five, six, seven or eight figure one.
I usually estimate "fair value" of a coin and bid a few extra increments depending on how well it fits my collection. By definition "fair value" includes adjustments for eye appeal, surfaces, color, luster, etc., rather than just straight price guide valuation. Other bidders are making the same assessment.
My philosophy is that ultimately you should win as many coins as you underbid.
If you win most coins, it means you are not being discerning on price; you are outbidding people who are trying to fill holes in their particular collection.
If you underbid most coins, it means you are not being discerning on quality. You aren't valuing the unique attractive qualities highly enough, and you likely only win coins with hidden problems.
Once you are valuing coins appropriately, and adding an additional premium to coins that suit your taste, you should be able to win half or so of your serious bids.
Two months ago I was under bidder on a classic commem at GC. It was listed again this time with a green CAC sticker. I won it for less than it sold for then. Just my example.
If you really, really need it, and the other guy isn’t a billionaire, and the coin isn’t coming around again anytime soon, and if you have the funds, and if you’re buying to collect, not to “invest” or for resale, and if you’re prone to deep regret, and if the stars are in perfect alignment……. Then the OPs comments might be good advice.
Otherwise, it’s wise to sometimes be the underbidder.
I bid to win (plus get at decent price) so I will have a high bid input b4 auc close. It may vary on how badly I want the item. It could be placed sometime after a scout bid (test if they higher than a certain parameter) then the real McCoy shot to whup on them near auc close. My bidding is for inventory procurement so no true nuk bidding for me especially if some rich collector competition. But I sure as heck will bleed them up if it’s something I really want to procure. Winnings are then marked up accordingly.
I may be wrong but this topic has drawn more fast and extensive comment in both directions than any other topic I’ve seen on the Forum. And much comment is sophisticated and coming from knowledgable collectors as opposed to “ what’s this worth ? “ blogs.
This exchange of opinions is what this Forum is all about!
And Bill Jones, one element you haven’t factored in your “ value lost “ thoughts: the sheer pride & pleasure of owning the rare coin like your “ original skin “ 1808 1/4 eagle Your reputation for selecting aesthetically pleasing but not “ gem mint state “ coins will prove to be very wise, reflecting the taste of many collectors who are not ultra-rich. Believe me. Many collectors prefer a problem- free rare coin that did some “ service “ rather than a “ virginal “ piece that has no history
Take a look at the Missouri Cabinet sale. Nothing like billionaires bidding against each other. Most of the coins that have reappeared are significantly less. I have seen some drops of 30 to 70%. I knew it was crazy and I was concerned about being buried. I can know pick up some of these coins for substantially less. Now the sale was in 2014, so you may have had to wait a significant time.
@FredWeinberg said:
‘’ Sometimes the opportunity to buy a rare coin is rarer than the coin itself’’
—-Lester Merkin, old-time coin dealer from New York (passed away many years ago)
There almost no coins, tokens or medals in my collection which would fall into that category.
I think a compelling argument could be made that your unc 1796 no stars QE, a coin I once described as "nothing less than remarkable", could very well fall into that category. While there have been two recent auctions of uncirculated examples, there is intense demand for that issue, and I think with the right wardrobe, you would be rewarded handsomely over your cost.
I also have doubts that your 1808 quarter eagle is for certain, a "financial loser". The last 50 cac I know of sold privately over 200k, and that coin was not what I'd call "conservatively" graded, and it was not in an OGH. I don't know if yours has been to CAC or not, but with a CAC sticker, I would estimate that your coin would retail for around 250k or possibly more, and I know several dealers that would pay no less than 200k wholesale, if stickered. Even your 1848 cal is a coin that would wholesale for no less than 70k these days, and If you bought yours directly out of auction, that would still be around a 50% profit which would be about equal in terms of inflationary buying power.
I understand your point that these coins may not be the best performing assets, but the demand for some of these key type coins cannot be overstated. I would opine that these purchases could be liquidated rather easily, netting your initial purchase price adjusted for inflation, at a minimum. Would the S&P have performed much better? Probably, but it's still superior to holding cash in the bank, and enjoyment and pride of ownership that I would have gotten from coins like these has a substantial value in itself imo.
Re the Missouri cabinet auction. I attended and it was not billionaire vs billionaire. Not even close.
It was wealthy Brent Pogue attending but bidding thru his usual well- known agent Rich Burdick
standing against the side wall in full view of Pogue and the auction podium.
Brent Pogue was not even close to being a billionaire. His main competition was dealer / half cent collector the late Jim McGuigan,, a well- respected modestly financed “ niche “ collector.
The term “ billionaire “ is casually thrown around today. That’s a thousand million dollars,
@numis1652 said:
I completely disagree with the concept of “ don’t ever be an underbidder “ based on being in numismatics for 68 years.
There are extremely wealthy and / or “ must have under any circumstances ” collectors who will maniacally bid non-stop. I recall Brent Pogue , most often in attendance but bidding thru agents
on the auction floor, who was willing to pay astronomical prices. He died prematurely in his early 50’s and quite a number of his top notch coins realized significantly lower prices, by multi hundreds of thousands of dollars, only a few years after he acquired them. Pogue’s underbidders either had died off or had lower enthusiasm or redirected interests.
Collector Age is an important factor in the decision on what level to bid. If you are, say, below 60 and in good health with marital or family stability, the “ must have “ high level you can bid can be much stronger than if you are in your late 60’s or have “ shaky “ marital or family relations.
If it’s an ex rare variety, hold off at deciding to pay astronomical prices. Very , very few die varieties retain their rarity over the years AND the market for such varieties tends to be quite thin at relative higher prices. Just wait for another to appear for sale.
The US rare coin market ( I can’t speak for the foreign coin market ) is rapidly aging and more important collections are appearing at auction more frequently. So if you miss a certain coin, it is very likely another even better piece will surface at auction in the near future
When prices just get too intolerable in your numismatic specialty, why not re-direct your collecting efforts to a “ niche “ field that is far more affordable , which is still challenging, and where ridiculous market value differences are not governed by a + or a single grade number or a green or gold sticker.
Are you collecting coins or plastic holders ? How many people can consistently determine the difference between a 66 or 67 or 67+ ? And yet price differences can be many thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.
I did this transfer of interest well over a decade ago and am very pleased with the result. And I still regard myself as a numismatist
I think that using the Pogue example is cherry-picking data points, especially if focusing on coins that he acquired shortly before his passing, and subsequently sold a few years later. We all know that coins that are auctioned off in just a few years after purchase can have a significant downside risk, but alternatively, collections like that would have likely performed handsomely after several decades. Obviously, it would also be cherry picking to use Pittman as the example, where his 100k investment brought brought a 3000% return after 50 years. With that said, almost any major purchases of key type coins before 2000 would net a substantial profit if sold today. Pogue hadn't even gotten serious until 2001, and the timing of the Pogue Sales was a low point in the market just 15ish years later in 2015-2020. I imagine that his collection which brought a bit over 100m, would have totaled out closer to 200m, if the sales had been just 5-10 years later. Who knows what it would have brought in 10, 20, or 30 years from now, but his collection consisted of the finest examples in existence, and the top end of the market has significantly outperformed the market as whole, especially when looking back to the 80's or 90's.
Agreed.
There aren't many major collectors by variety these days, pretty much all major collections are by Type now. It's just not economically feasible to put together a Bass-like collection of all varieties, and rarely are any record setting APR's due the die marriage scarcity.
I think this is conjectural, and while many major collections have surfaced over the past 20 years, I don't think anyone should assume that its "very likely an even better piece will surface in the near future". In fact, I think it's the polar opposite. When I look back through old auctions in the early 2000's and the 90's, there was an extensive selection of premium quality coins to choose from. By contrast, recent major auction offerings have been pretty uninspiring in my view. The most common problem that I, and other dealers of higher end type, are having, is that we cant find enough nice material to satisfy demand. I'm talking about mostly 19th century and 18th century classics. Early gold with original surfaces, All high end 19th century proof type, seated coinage with original surfaces, especially Dollars and Halves (See Chelsea Sale @ HA). Pioneer gold, all 1700's coinage, early copper, draped bust anything, etc.
Where I see some weakness- Capped bust halves and Trade dollars in Gem MS, some better date sold (Thanks, Fairmont) small denomination (<10c) silver, and very much of the 20th century condition rarities. This isn't a surprise for coins that had large populations stored in quantity that had never been graded, but the current market is much more type-coin focused, and anything of superb quality is easy to sell. Especially something with extraordinary characteristics (PL/DMPL/CAM/DCAM), monster toning, or original surfaces.
Agree, and this is why many 20th century condition rarities underperforming. There are many washington quarter issues where you would have lost your shirt buying the finest known coins 20 years ago, and this is why I prefer the J.J. Ford approach of "Stick with coins that have a high Basal Value", ie coin that are expensive even in in Good-6, not coins that have a 10x jump between 66 and 66+. Many CAC coins, however, bring shattering numbers because they are actually really nice. I think that the forum often underestimates how many collectors are actually buying the coin for the coin, despite the fact that a large subset of collectors do just bust the grade/sticker. There are many APR's I've seen of high demand CAC stickered coins that bring very weak prices, commensurate with the eye appeal, and within a year there's a non cac example with superb appeal that nets double that amount.
@numis1652 said:
I may be wrong but this topic has drawn more fast and extensive comment in both directions than any other topic I’ve seen on the Forum. And much comment is sophisticated and coming from knowledgable collectors as opposed to “ what’s this worth ? “ blogs.
This exchange of opinions is what this Forum is all about!
And Bill Jones, one element you haven’t factored in your “ value lost “ thoughts: the sheer pride & pleasure of owning the rare coin like your “ original skin “ 1808 1/4 eagle Your reputation for selecting aesthetically pleasing but not “ gem mint state “ coins will prove to be very wise, reflecting the taste of many collectors who are not ultra-rich. Believe me. Many collectors prefer a problem- free rare coin that did some “ service “ rather than a “ virginal “ piece that has no history
Strongly agree with your last paragraph there, the enjoyment from ownership has a subjective value that everyone needs to determine on their own. Like I said in my previous comment to Bill though, the demand for many of these Key type coins is out of this world. There are 6 figure coins that I could sell an entire roll of, if one existed. I wouldn't underestimate the number of collectors willing to spend 20, 50, or 100k on certain "trophy" coins. My two biggest clients are middle aged gentlemen that were not coin collectors growing up, but in the past 5 years had taken an interest in gold rush history, and are now buying some of the rarest known and best known pioneer gold pieces. The number of millionaires in the US rose from 14m to 58m from 2000 to 2023, about a 4x increase of people who could conceivable spend 20k or more on a coin.
This is why I always recommend coins with "cross" demand, ie. Civil war coins, Mormon Gold, Gold rush associated issues, Dahlonega, Charlotte, or other branch mint series. These coins draw demand from the usual collectors, but their collectibility is bolstered by non collectors/investors who may have a sentimental attachment to the region or state. An Oregon exchange $5 can be a treasure not only to a serious collector, but an affluent Oregon native seeking to put some money into a hard asset. With the recent inflation we've seen, one thing is clear- holding cash is a bad idea. When the stock market is shaky, you're left with precious metals, real estate, and crypto. Many of the older generations want nothing to do with crypto, and real estate can be tricky. Gold has been a fantastic store of value over the past decade, despite long periods of sideways movement in the past. Anyone who collected low premium double eagles prior to 2024 could likely sell for massive returns. There's many ways to approach collecting with a secondary goal of value retention, and looking at the long term, my sentiment is far more optimistic than many forum threads would lead one to believe.
I sincerely appreciate the wisdom and perspectives shared in this thread. The “never be an underbidder” idea bounced around my thoughts a lot since this topic was started.
In regards to a coin I really want compared to a coin I like, I decided I would not be an underbidder for rare opportunities.
Last week a rare offering in the Jefferson series was at auction on GC. I have seen maybe four offered for sale in the last 10 years, the 1946 S DDO with the “hockey stick”. I will regret selling my MS example for the rest of my collecting life.
The purchase price was probably less than the tax paid on other coins discussed in this thread, but it is a true prize for me as one of the most difficult coins to find or cherry pick in the Jefferson series.
Thanks for the wisdom and motivation to reach for something special.
Being an underbidder can sometimes be good. I threw out a strong max bid of $4350 for an item back in 2021 and was the underbidder. Comparable item came up two years later in 2023 and I got it for $1500. I think about that a lot and am very grateful. Was it a fluke? Probably. But, I've always seemed to be lucky that way... 🍀🤞🍀🤞
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@Walkerfan . In that regard I have to mention the Stephenville group (whoever they are). From the Spring of 2022 to the fall of 2023 I was blown out of the water in numerous G.C. auctions. Many coins were won at prices that were not only record setting but sometime multiples of CDN. Spring of 2024 the same coins showed up in a series of Heritage auctions and I won numerous pieces at prices that were not just less than what they had paid but sometimes half of CDN. Go figure. James
@seatedlib3991 said: @Walkerfan . In that regard I have to mention the Stephenville group (whoever they are). From the Spring of 2022 to the fall of 2023 I was blown out of the water in numerous G.C. auctions. Many coins were won at prices that were not only record setting but sometime multiples of CDN. Spring of 2024 the same coins showed up in a series of Heritage auctions and I won numerous pieces at prices that were not just less than what they had paid but sometimes half of CDN. Go figure. James
That’s awesome! I love it when things work out like that.👏 I’m all about paying up for things that you want and need that are of good quality, but there’s something to be said for stepping away from the plate, when it doesn’t feel right.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
Depends on the coin. Many of the best coins are "known," and will always command a premium. The rest are really common as revealed by 25 years of documented auctions, pop numbers at TPG's, etc. What was once thought rare, is rare no more. But, I get the point. I was lucky enough to buy the only agreed upon 1856 FE S3 proof because I knew the coin, and Heritage's pictures were terrible. I bought it for $50k. Then one day Rick Snow called me and asked me if I knew where it was, that he had a collector who wanted it. I told him I owned it and he offered $100k, so I let it go. Still wish i had it, but have to know when to let them go. I have a few more unicorns, but the market is not looking for them right now.
Secondly, you can get a good trustworthy dealer like Laura Sperber who won't let you pay too much for a coin that is not really worth it. @Legend
It is OK to be the underbidder. Unless you are building a Simpson, Progue, Tyrant or similar type of collection where those coins are unique or say less than a half dozen are available, you will need to be the winner.
I have found that if I miss a coin, there are 20 other coins I am looking for in my universe. So move on to the next coin on your list. I have found that once coins surpass a strong "resonable" price in auction, you can generally find them from dealers at about the same price or less. There have been a dozen times where I missed a coin in auction only to be able to buy it within the next 2-years from a dealer at a lesser price.
Tonight it was OK by me to be the underbidder for the coin below in a GC auction.
This date is a rarity - the 1866-S NM $20. Graded XF45+, I actually thought the grade was a bit generous. Still, I virtually never see one of these @ or around this grade level, so I put in my max bid & hoped. I did wonder about the “no bean”, but didn’t assume that was a rejection. The seller has numerous gold offerings without it.
I assessed the coin was worthy of a strong bid, but not an all in one. I was nosed out in the final minute with plenty of time to raise my bid. I decided this was one to pass on - I do think another one will come along that I might like even more, so I’ll wait for that chance.
@Copperindian said:
Tonight it was OK by me to be the underbidder for the coin below in a GC auction.
This date is a rarity - the 1866-S NM $20. Graded XF45+, I actually thought the grade was a bit generous. Still, I virtually never see one of these @ or around this grade level, so I put in my max bid & hoped. I did wonder about the “no bean”, but didn’t assume that was a rejection. The seller has numerous gold offerings without it.
I assessed the coin was worthy of a strong bid, but not an all in one. I was nosed out in the final minute with plenty of time to raise my bid. I decided this was one to pass on - I do think another one will come along that I might like even more, so I’ll wait for that chance.
Ken, I think you made the right call. Scratching my head a bit about the "+" on that one, I'm guessing there luster carried the grade a bit.
Comments
I've got a good number of coins in my primary non-US collecting interesting that presumably fall into the category covered by the theme of this thread. I've bought a disproportionate percentage of the better coins I'm aware of for 15 years. Yes, there is less competition, but only a tiny fraction of US coinage is harder to buy than these. When I look at Coin Facts, I hardly ever see the Condition Census with so few examples that a determined buyer with the money can't buy one fitting the sentiments of this thread in a "reasonable" timeframe.
I've owned some of these over 20 years and still waiting over 20 years for a few I wish I had bought to show up again. The three "name collection" sales of this segment since I've been a collector occurred in 1988, 1991, and 1996. Some might be in the TPG data now, some I might actually already own, but mostly, I either haven't or don't believe I have seen any of it. I presume to the extent it sold it probably traded privately.
I've never been a big budget collector, but this was behind my decision when I resumed collecting in 1998. My budget was lower than now, but prices might have increased even more for anything I really want(ed) to buy.
In my previous collecting iterations, I almost exclusively collected US coinage but have not since 1998 and never looked back.
I also did it by switching from one non-US segment to my current one in 2010. That market became too inflated with too many financially motivated buyers.
Sure, and then it depends on how you treat your collection. Apart from possibly upgrading later, my intention is to never sell this part of my collection, so the only reason cost comes into play is that if another example comes along at a way better price, I’ll lose out having bought the more expensive one. Otherwise, everything is money I’ll never see again, and that’s okay—I’ve already planned it that way.
There's a been a couple times where I wish I was the under bidder.
No need to thank me - I enjoy participating here (at least most of the time😉).
And I don’t think in terms of “little guys” or other such classifications. But rather, considerations such as good, helpful contributors, interesting, fun participants, etc.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Agree, I don't buy coins for "investment".
I mostly buy coins in the $250-$1250 range. If I already own a nice one and a second comes up that's nice too, I'll try to buy it, just not with the same motivation. I've also upgraded but seldom sold those I have. Sometimes I buy the duplicate because it has less circulation. Other times due to better "originality", color, or a better strike.
Dan, while I’m not certain, I think it’s doubtful that I’ll collect coins again. By virtue of the ones I’ve personally handled while conducting my own business, graded when I was with NGC and seen, while working for Heritage, I’m very badly spoiled.
That said, there are still occasions when I see coins that make me do a double take, cause my pulse rate to increase and make me fall in love.
And many of them are even affordable. 😁
I can appreciate a (edited for typo) spectacular looking common, low value coin about as much as I can a five, six, seven or eight figure one.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Mark, it would be a spectacle to see a new collection put together by you!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Really nice PQ coins may need slight bid bump up in order to win. But I don’t get in nuk bid war with other bidders.
So you're collecting spectacles on coins? Fun!!!
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Don’t worry Dan, this will be a personal endeavor of mine, we’re going to make it happen.
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I usually estimate "fair value" of a coin and bid a few extra increments depending on how well it fits my collection. By definition "fair value" includes adjustments for eye appeal, surfaces, color, luster, etc., rather than just straight price guide valuation. Other bidders are making the same assessment.
My philosophy is that ultimately you should win as many coins as you underbid.
If you win most coins, it means you are not being discerning on price; you are outbidding people who are trying to fill holes in their particular collection.
If you underbid most coins, it means you are not being discerning on quality. You aren't valuing the unique attractive qualities highly enough, and you likely only win coins with hidden problems.
Once you are valuing coins appropriately, and adding an additional premium to coins that suit your taste, you should be able to win half or so of your serious bids.
Two months ago I was under bidder on a classic commem at GC. It was listed again this time with a green CAC sticker. I won it for less than it sold for then. Just my example.
Polish and Mexican coins are a good place to search.
If you really, really need it, and the other guy isn’t a billionaire, and the coin isn’t coming around again anytime soon, and if you have the funds, and if you’re buying to collect, not to “invest” or for resale, and if you’re prone to deep regret, and if the stars are in perfect alignment……. Then the OPs comments might be good advice.
Otherwise, it’s wise to sometimes be the underbidder.
I bid to win (plus get at decent price) so I will have a high bid input b4 auc close. It may vary on how badly I want the item. It could be placed sometime after a scout bid (test if they higher than a certain parameter) then the real McCoy shot to whup on them near auc close. My bidding is for inventory procurement so no true nuk bidding for me especially if some rich collector competition. But I sure as heck will bleed them up if it’s something I really want to procure. Winnings are then marked up accordingly.
I may be wrong but this topic has drawn more fast and extensive comment in both directions than any other topic I’ve seen on the Forum. And much comment is sophisticated and coming from knowledgable collectors as opposed to “ what’s this worth ? “ blogs.
This exchange of opinions is what this Forum is all about!
And Bill Jones, one element you haven’t factored in your “ value lost “ thoughts: the sheer pride & pleasure of owning the rare coin like your “ original skin “ 1808 1/4 eagle Your reputation for selecting aesthetically pleasing but not “ gem mint state “ coins will prove to be very wise, reflecting the taste of many collectors who are not ultra-rich. Believe me. Many collectors prefer a problem- free rare coin that did some “ service “ rather than a “ virginal “ piece that has no history
Take a look at the Missouri Cabinet sale. Nothing like billionaires bidding against each other. Most of the coins that have reappeared are significantly less. I have seen some drops of 30 to 70%. I knew it was crazy and I was concerned about being buried. I can know pick up some of these coins for substantially less. Now the sale was in 2014, so you may have had to wait a significant time.
I think a compelling argument could be made that your unc 1796 no stars QE, a coin I once described as "nothing less than remarkable", could very well fall into that category. While there have been two recent auctions of uncirculated examples, there is intense demand for that issue, and I think with the right wardrobe, you would be rewarded handsomely over your cost.
I also have doubts that your 1808 quarter eagle is for certain, a "financial loser". The last 50 cac I know of sold privately over 200k, and that coin was not what I'd call "conservatively" graded, and it was not in an OGH. I don't know if yours has been to CAC or not, but with a CAC sticker, I would estimate that your coin would retail for around 250k or possibly more, and I know several dealers that would pay no less than 200k wholesale, if stickered. Even your 1848 cal is a coin that would wholesale for no less than 70k these days, and If you bought yours directly out of auction, that would still be around a 50% profit which would be about equal in terms of inflationary buying power.
I understand your point that these coins may not be the best performing assets, but the demand for some of these key type coins cannot be overstated. I would opine that these purchases could be liquidated rather easily, netting your initial purchase price adjusted for inflation, at a minimum. Would the S&P have performed much better? Probably, but it's still superior to holding cash in the bank, and enjoyment and pride of ownership that I would have gotten from coins like these has a substantial value in itself imo.
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Re the Missouri cabinet auction. I attended and it was not billionaire vs billionaire. Not even close.
It was wealthy Brent Pogue attending but bidding thru his usual well- known agent Rich Burdick
standing against the side wall in full view of Pogue and the auction podium.
Brent Pogue was not even close to being a billionaire. His main competition was dealer / half cent collector the late Jim McGuigan,, a well- respected modestly financed “ niche “ collector.
The term “ billionaire “ is casually thrown around today. That’s a thousand million dollars,
I think that using the Pogue example is cherry-picking data points, especially if focusing on coins that he acquired shortly before his passing, and subsequently sold a few years later. We all know that coins that are auctioned off in just a few years after purchase can have a significant downside risk, but alternatively, collections like that would have likely performed handsomely after several decades. Obviously, it would also be cherry picking to use Pittman as the example, where his 100k investment brought brought a 3000% return after 50 years. With that said, almost any major purchases of key type coins before 2000 would net a substantial profit if sold today. Pogue hadn't even gotten serious until 2001, and the timing of the Pogue Sales was a low point in the market just 15ish years later in 2015-2020. I imagine that his collection which brought a bit over 100m, would have totaled out closer to 200m, if the sales had been just 5-10 years later. Who knows what it would have brought in 10, 20, or 30 years from now, but his collection consisted of the finest examples in existence, and the top end of the market has significantly outperformed the market as whole, especially when looking back to the 80's or 90's.
Agreed.
There aren't many major collectors by variety these days, pretty much all major collections are by Type now. It's just not economically feasible to put together a Bass-like collection of all varieties, and rarely are any record setting APR's due the die marriage scarcity.
I think this is conjectural, and while many major collections have surfaced over the past 20 years, I don't think anyone should assume that its "very likely an even better piece will surface in the near future". In fact, I think it's the polar opposite. When I look back through old auctions in the early 2000's and the 90's, there was an extensive selection of premium quality coins to choose from. By contrast, recent major auction offerings have been pretty uninspiring in my view. The most common problem that I, and other dealers of higher end type, are having, is that we cant find enough nice material to satisfy demand. I'm talking about mostly 19th century and 18th century classics. Early gold with original surfaces, All high end 19th century proof type, seated coinage with original surfaces, especially Dollars and Halves (See Chelsea Sale @ HA). Pioneer gold, all 1700's coinage, early copper, draped bust anything, etc.
Where I see some weakness- Capped bust halves and Trade dollars in Gem MS, some better date sold (Thanks, Fairmont) small denomination (<10c) silver, and very much of the 20th century condition rarities. This isn't a surprise for coins that had large populations stored in quantity that had never been graded, but the current market is much more type-coin focused, and anything of superb quality is easy to sell. Especially something with extraordinary characteristics (PL/DMPL/CAM/DCAM), monster toning, or original surfaces.
Strongly agree with your last paragraph there, the enjoyment from ownership has a subjective value that everyone needs to determine on their own. Like I said in my previous comment to Bill though, the demand for many of these Key type coins is out of this world. There are 6 figure coins that I could sell an entire roll of, if one existed. I wouldn't underestimate the number of collectors willing to spend 20, 50, or 100k on certain "trophy" coins. My two biggest clients are middle aged gentlemen that were not coin collectors growing up, but in the past 5 years had taken an interest in gold rush history, and are now buying some of the rarest known and best known pioneer gold pieces. The number of millionaires in the US rose from 14m to 58m from 2000 to 2023, about a 4x increase of people who could conceivable spend 20k or more on a coin.
This is why I always recommend coins with "cross" demand, ie. Civil war coins, Mormon Gold, Gold rush associated issues, Dahlonega, Charlotte, or other branch mint series. These coins draw demand from the usual collectors, but their collectibility is bolstered by non collectors/investors who may have a sentimental attachment to the region or state. An Oregon exchange $5 can be a treasure not only to a serious collector, but an affluent Oregon native seeking to put some money into a hard asset. With the recent inflation we've seen, one thing is clear- holding cash is a bad idea. When the stock market is shaky, you're left with precious metals, real estate, and crypto. Many of the older generations want nothing to do with crypto, and real estate can be tricky. Gold has been a fantastic store of value over the past decade, despite long periods of sideways movement in the past. Anyone who collected low premium double eagles prior to 2024 could likely sell for massive returns. There's many ways to approach collecting with a secondary goal of value retention, and looking at the long term, my sentiment is far more optimistic than many forum threads would lead one to believe.
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I sincerely appreciate the wisdom and perspectives shared in this thread. The “never be an underbidder” idea bounced around my thoughts a lot since this topic was started.
In regards to a coin I really want compared to a coin I like, I decided I would not be an underbidder for rare opportunities.
Last week a rare offering in the Jefferson series was at auction on GC. I have seen maybe four offered for sale in the last 10 years, the 1946 S DDO with the “hockey stick”. I will regret selling my MS example for the rest of my collecting life.
The purchase price was probably less than the tax paid on other coins discussed in this thread, but it is a true prize for me as one of the most difficult coins to find or cherry pick in the Jefferson series.
Thanks for the wisdom and motivation to reach for something special.
https://www.autismforums.com/media/albums/acrylic-colors-by-rocco.291/
Being an underbidder can sometimes be good. I threw out a strong max bid of $4350 for an item back in 2021 and was the underbidder. Comparable item came up two years later in 2023 and I got it for $1500. I think about that a lot and am very grateful. Was it a fluke? Probably. But, I've always seemed to be lucky that way...
🍀🤞🍀🤞
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
@Walkerfan . In that regard I have to mention the Stephenville group (whoever they are). From the Spring of 2022 to the fall of 2023 I was blown out of the water in numerous G.C. auctions. Many coins were won at prices that were not only record setting but sometime multiples of CDN. Spring of 2024 the same coins showed up in a series of Heritage auctions and I won numerous pieces at prices that were not just less than what they had paid but sometimes half of CDN. Go figure. James
That’s awesome! I love it when things work out like that.👏 I’m all about paying up for things that you want and need that are of good quality, but there’s something to be said for stepping away from the plate, when it doesn’t feel right.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Depends on the coin. Many of the best coins are "known," and will always command a premium. The rest are really common as revealed by 25 years of documented auctions, pop numbers at TPG's, etc. What was once thought rare, is rare no more. But, I get the point. I was lucky enough to buy the only agreed upon 1856 FE S3 proof because I knew the coin, and Heritage's pictures were terrible. I bought it for $50k. Then one day Rick Snow called me and asked me if I knew where it was, that he had a collector who wanted it. I told him I owned it and he offered $100k, so I let it go. Still wish i had it, but have to know when to let them go. I have a few more unicorns, but the market is not looking for them right now.
Secondly, you can get a good trustworthy dealer like Laura Sperber who won't let you pay too much for a coin that is not really worth it. @Legend
It is OK to be the underbidder. Unless you are building a Simpson, Progue, Tyrant or similar type of collection where those coins are unique or say less than a half dozen are available, you will need to be the winner.
I have found that if I miss a coin, there are 20 other coins I am looking for in my universe. So move on to the next coin on your list. I have found that once coins surpass a strong "resonable" price in auction, you can generally find them from dealers at about the same price or less. There have been a dozen times where I missed a coin in auction only to be able to buy it within the next 2-years from a dealer at a lesser price.
Tonight it was OK by me to be the underbidder for the coin below in a GC auction.
This date is a rarity - the 1866-S NM $20. Graded XF45+, I actually thought the grade was a bit generous. Still, I virtually never see one of these @ or around this grade level, so I put in my max bid & hoped. I did wonder about the “no bean”, but didn’t assume that was a rejection. The seller has numerous gold offerings without it.
I assessed the coin was worthy of a strong bid, but not an all in one. I was nosed out in the final minute with plenty of time to raise my bid. I decided this was one to pass on - I do think another one will come along that I might like even more, so I’ll wait for that chance.
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
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Ken, I think you made the right call. Scratching my head a bit about the "+" on that one, I'm guessing there luster carried the grade a bit.
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