Survival rate (s) for US dimes 1796-1916?

Early_Milled_Latin_America

I am new to collecting them. My goal is 1796-1916 (life time goal). Any idea on percentage of coins that still exist?

1796-1807
1809-1837
1837-1891
1892-1916

I own a red book so I know the mintage's but have no idea of the survival rate of any of these series.

Early_Milled_Latin_America

I know no one can know for sure but was wondering if there was any estimates you long term collectors go by and trust.

VanHalen

PCGS' Coinfacts publishes survival estimates for U.S. coins. You should download their app to your phone if you have not already. Here's a screenshot of one page for a 1796 dime.

lilolme

I recalled something similar coming up semi-recently and found the below thread (link).

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1101589/survival-rates

In the Resources thread (link bottom and pinned to top of US Coin forum) and under 10c there are some links to online books. These might be dated but there is some survival information in them. Below are the links (again in Resources) and a general starting page of the survival information.

Liberty seated dime (page 22 book, 30 reader)
https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/555400

Barber dime (page 15 book, 23 reader)
https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/555294

Mercury dime (page 42 book, 55 reader)
https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/555399

Resources thread link
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1006619/resources-books-links-to-read-on-numismatic-series-errors-and-varieties/p01

PerryHall

I usually refer to the PCGS Coin Facts to get the estimated survival rate of various coins. I'm not sure how accurate they are but I can at least get an estimated order of magnitude. Of course, their estimated survival numbers can be way off if a hoard is discovered.

BillJones

I would look at the die variety books for dimes, look through the rarities of the varieties, which are in ranges, and add those together. You will do pretty well up to the late 1830s, until you hit the seated type. After that the number survivors gets higher, except rare mint marked pieces.

I have used those die variety books a number of times for research.

My impression is that “Coin Facts” survival estimates are on the low side, mostly. I think that the coins are generally more common than those numbers. Perhaps the “details” grade coins are not on the list.

yosclimber

If you are planning to buy coins in slabs, you could look at the Population reports for PCGS, NGC, CACG, etc.
For PCGS draped bust dimes, these are online free at:
https://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail/draped-bust-dime-1796-1807/1655/0?t=4&pn=1

I used the Summary tab to show all grades, but you could use a different tab depending on what grades you prefer to collect.
The reported populations may be too high in some cases due to the same coin being slabbed more than once without the old entry being removed.

You might be interested in how often a rare date appears in auctions.
You can click on the "Auction Prices" link on the above page to see this.
For example, for the 1804 13-star reverse:
https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/details/1804-13-star-reverse-ms/4474
It appears in auctions 1-4 times per year.
And these auction appearances include Details graded coins that are not in the Population report,
and coins from different Slab companies.

pcgsregistrycollector

@yosclimber said:
If you are planning to buy coins in slabs, you could look at the Population reports for PCGS, NGC, CACG, etc.
For PCGS draped bust dimes, these are online free at:
https://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail/draped-bust-dime-1796-1807/1655/0?t=4&pn=1

I used the Summary tab to show all grades, but you could use a different tab depending on what grades you prefer to collect.
The reported populations may be too high in some cases due to the same coin being slabbed more than once without the old entry being removed.

Does this include details coins? Last I checked there was no pop report for details slabs.

BillJones

The details coins are shown under the sharpness grade with no notations. Sometimes you see a very low price for the grade. Quite often when you click on it, you find out it’s a details coin.

291fifth

Be wary of survival totals from so-called "experts". Many better date/ better condition early US coins have been extensively hoarded over the past fifty years. The hoarders are not going to let the "experts" know what they have. The coins in these hoards often return to the market only when the hoarder dies. Many of these hoarders are now getting old ... very old ... so who knows what the future may bring on to the market.

BillJones

@291fifth said:
Be wary of survival totals from so-called "experts". Many better date/ better condition early US coins have been extensively hoarded over the past fifty years. The hoarders are not going to let the "experts" know what they have. The coins in these hoards often return to the market only when the hoarder dies. Many of these hoarders are now getting old ... very old ... so who knows what the future may bring on to the market.

I don’t know how many of those hoards are left. Dr. Sheldon mentioned the Nickles Hoard of 1797 cents in his 1958 book, “Penny Whimsy.” I started getting auction catalogs in the 1970s. I can hardly remember seeing any Mint State 1797 cents since then. According to Sheldon, the coins in that hoard were almost boringly similar.

logger7

I'm curious whether when you look on an old HA auction result, whether their system has automatically updated Greysheet pricing or whether it is the latest GS?

logger7

@BillJones said:
The details coins are shown under the sharpness grade with no notations. Sometimes you see a very low price for the grade. Quite often when you click on it, you find out it’s a details coin.

Link for "sharpness"? I don't see it on the Coinfacts page is it on the NGC page?

Early_Milled_Latin_America

Thanks guys this helps a lot!!!

BillJones

@logger7 said:

@BillJones said:
The details coins are shown under the sharpness grade with no notations. Sometimes you see a very low price for the grade. Quite often when you click on it, you find out it’s a details coin.

Link for "sharpness"? I don't see it on the Coinfacts page is it on the NGC page?

I mean that if a coin is graded EF details, (problem), I have seen that coin appear with the other EFs in the "Coin Facts" auction area as an EF. When you open the auction site info, you find out that it is an EF, "details" graded coin.

logger7

On the likely surviving population are there any likely numbers by coin series? I'd think that the smaller and more esoteric the silver coin is the less likely there exist significant hoards. Most of the hoards that have come out of Europe and Shipwrecks have been gold, primarily the larger denominations.

Overdate

@PerryHall said:
I usually refer to the PCGS Coin Facts to get the estimated survival rate of various coins. I'm not sure how accurate they are but I can at least get an estimated order of magnitude.

Coinfacts shows an estimated survival in all grades of only 6,000 for the 1907 Indian cent. Estimates are comparable for other common dates. I think that's likely off by more than one order of magnitude. Many collectors could easily accumulate that many in good or better condition without breaking the bank. Full circulated rolls of this date have recently sold on eBay for $55 to $70, including shipping.

pcgsregistrycollector

@logger7 said:
On the likely surviving population are there any likely numbers by coin series? I'd think that the smaller and more esoteric the silver coin is the less likely there exist significant hoards. Most of the hoards that have come out of Europe and Shipwrecks have been gold, primarily the larger denominations.

I've also noticed that the earlier dimes and half dimes seem to all have a major problem i.e. (scratched, cleaned, holed, bent, dented).

Early_Milled_Latin_America

@pcgsregistrycollector said:

@logger7 said:
On the likely surviving population are there any likely numbers by coin series? I'd think that the smaller and more esoteric the silver coin is the less likely there exist significant hoards. Most of the hoards that have come out of Europe and Shipwrecks have been gold, primarily the larger denominations.

I've also noticed that the earlier dimes and half dimes seem to all have a major problem i.e. (scratched, cleaned, holed, bent, dented).

Used by poorer people vs dollars. My guess anyways.

WCC

@PerryHall said:
I usually refer to the PCGS Coin Facts to get the estimated survival rate of various coins. I'm not sure how accurate they are but I can at least get an estimated order of magnitude. Of course, their estimated survival numbers can be way off if a hoard is discovered.

I've looked at Coin Fact extensively, but without a download of the data to analyze, it's not possible to cross check for reasonableness across the board. Anecdotally, looking as I have, it's easy to see there are numerous inconsistencies which don't make any sense.

For dimes, look at the 1921 and 1921-D. I'd assign a probability of zero that the estimates of 2000 and 3500 are anywhere close to accurate. The survivorship of both is or seems to be really low above very low grades, but if the question is how many in total as asked by the OP, it should be at least 10X the number Coin Facts claims since the mintage on both is 1MM+. These two only circulated for less than 20 years prior to folder collecting. Both estimates are also much lower than for the 1916-D.

Looking on eBay right now, my search returns 610 for Denver and 1,051 for Philadelphia. Yes, probably some (or many) fakes and presumably some inaccurate listings too. It's still not a small number and nowhere near consistent with estimates of 2,000 and 3,500.

pcgsregistrycollector

There's no real accurate way for people to determine survival rates for coins. Companies like PCGS and NGC might give estimates for survival rates, but they won't ever be accurate.

WCC

@TheGoonies1985 said:
I am new to collecting them. My goal is 1796-1916 (life time goal). Any idea on percentage of coins that still exist?

1796-1807
1809-1837
1837-1891
1892-1916

I own a red book so I know the mintage's but have no idea of the survival rate of any of these series.

If you're asking about survival rates and not number, it's certainly usually or always higher vs. Peru pillar 1R we both collect. I'd expect a lot higher, proportionately.

If you're asking about the number, a low proportion are going to be scarcer vs. some Peru pillar 1R dates due to the lopsided mintage differences. 1796-1807 and lowest mintage Liberty Seated potentially or probably vs. 1753-1760 FRD VI. Scarcer in total but virtually never in mid or higher quality.

If you're looking to collect in similar quality as you buy Peru pillar 1R, I wouldn't expect any difficulty finding all of it, since you're not going to buy the unique 1873-CC no arrows.

WCC

@291fifth said:
Be wary of survival totals from so-called "experts". Many better date/ better condition early US coins have been extensively hoarded over the past fifty years. The hoarders are not going to let the "experts" know what they have. The coins in these hoards often return to the market only when the hoarder dies. Many of these hoarders are now getting old ... very old ... so who knows what the future may bring on to the market.

This is my opinion too. Not all collectors find a need to tell anyone else what they have.

To my recollection, the estimate for the 1802 half dime is 35-40. Last check of NGC and PCGS, had only graded 14, with one of the two NGC AU-50 a potential duplicate. I doubt hardly any of the variance have been lost. Too prominent and valuable of a coin for the owner to be so careless.

If this many of this coin are unaccounted for, it's very likely there are many other rare(r) and valuable coins which aren't generally known either.

yosclimber

@pcgsregistrycollector said:

@yosclimber said:
If you are planning to buy coins in slabs, you could look at the Population reports for PCGS, NGC, CACG, etc.
For PCGS draped bust dimes, these are online free at:
https://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail/draped-bust-dime-1796-1807/1655/0?t=4&pn=1

I used the Summary tab to show all grades, but you could use a different tab depending on what grades you prefer to collect.
The reported populations may be too high in some cases due to the same coin being slabbed more than once without the old entry being removed.

Does this include details coins? Last I checked there was no pop report for details slabs.

Good point.
I believe these Population tables do not include Details graded coins.
So I should have said "If you are planning to buy non-Details graded coins in slabs, ..."

yosclimber

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
Be wary of survival totals from so-called "experts". Many better date/ better condition early US coins have been extensively hoarded over the past fifty years. The hoarders are not going to let the "experts" know what they have. The coins in these hoards often return to the market only when the hoarder dies. Many of these hoarders are now getting old ... very old ... so who knows what the future may bring on to the market.

This is my opinion too. Not all collectors find a need to tell anyone else what they have.

To my recollection, the estimate for the 1802 half dime is 35-40. Last check of NGC and PCGS, had only graded 14, with one of the two NGC AU-50 a potential duplicate. I doubt hardly any of the variance have been lost. Too prominent and valuable of a coin for the owner to be so careless.

If this many of this coin are unaccounted for, it's very likely there are many other rare(r) and valuable coins which aren't generally known either.

Most of the 1802 half dimes are Details graded.
There is a book by Jon Amato which traces them.

Early_Milled_Latin_America

@WCC said:

@TheGoonies1985 said:
I am new to collecting them. My goal is 1796-1916 (life time goal). Any idea on percentage of coins that still exist?

1796-1807
1809-1837
1837-1891
1892-1916

I own a red book so I know the mintage's but have no idea of the survival rate of any of these series.

If you're asking about survival rates and not number, it's certainly usually or always higher vs. Peru pillar 1R we both collect. I'd expect a lot higher, proportionately.

If you're asking about the number, a low proportion are going to be scarcer vs. some Peru pillar 1R dates due to the lopsided mintage differences. 1796-1807 and lowest mintage Liberty Seated potentially or probably vs. 1753-1760 FRD VI. Scarcer in total but virtually never in mid or higher quality.

If you're looking to collect in similar quality as you buy Peru pillar 1R, I wouldn't expect any difficulty finding all of it, since you're not going to buy the unique 1873-CC no arrows.

That is one major reason I collect these I enjoy the fact that I do not need to buy every single coin that shows up since many more will show up versus Latin American coins that you may have to wait years or more. I like collecting my Latin American 1 reales and will continue doing so but I do not feel that attraction to go beyond that denomination. I feel happy with US dimes since I like dimes sized coins like 1 reales (12,5 cents back in the day). I want to be at peace as mentioned not having to panic each time a coin becomes available that I must own it now or maybe never. I have been threw that with Latin American coins for 5-6 years and truly like colelct them but I do not want that felling all over again of must buy or sink feeling. I am nowhere near done with my 1 reales so this will be a perfect project for me for the remainder of my life (US dimes).

I live in Canada but no longer have any interest in Canadian coins they are not old enough 1858 till now vs US coins. I like the history of the wild west and early to late 19th century.

291fifth

Much of the hoarding I have mentioned involves dates that are scarce but not rare. When I went to coin shows in the early 1980s it was not uncommon to find better date Liberty Seated coins in Sunday bourse dealer's stock. Today finding a scarce date Liberty Seated coin in such dealer's stock is very unusual. The coins are out there ... somewhere.

WCC

@yosclimber said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
Be wary of survival totals from so-called "experts". Many better date/ better condition early US coins have been extensively hoarded over the past fifty years. The hoarders are not going to let the "experts" know what they have. The coins in these hoards often return to the market only when the hoarder dies. Many of these hoarders are now getting old ... very old ... so who knows what the future may bring on to the market.

This is my opinion too. Not all collectors find a need to tell anyone else what they have.

To my recollection, the estimate for the 1802 half dime is 35-40. Last check of NGC and PCGS, had only graded 14, with one of the two NGC AU-50 a potential duplicate. I doubt hardly any of the variance have been lost. Too prominent and valuable of a coin for the owner to be so careless.

If this many of this coin are unaccounted for, it's very likely there are many other rare(r) and valuable coins which aren't generally known either.

Most of the 1802 half dimes are Details graded.
There is a book by Jon Amato which traces them.

I haven't read the book but that was my assumption. I haven't seen the PCGS Details data since it's not public to my knowledge.

Bikergeek

@TheGoonies1985 I got into the capped bust half dime series in a big way in 2020 and promptly joined the John Reich Collectors Society. See: https://jrcs.org/

One great (albeit not perfect) resource is the census that many JRCS members participate in every four years, published in the John Reich Journal. If you're a member, you get the JRJ mailed to your home 3x per year. Others can find past Journals up on the Newman Numismatic Portal. Here's a search that results in a bunch of dime (and half dime) censuses from both the JR Journal (for early and capped bust half dimes and dimes in the JR Journals, as well as Seated from the Gobrecht Journal): https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/searchwithterms?searchterm=dime census

Caveat: the Newman Portal doesn't have recent copies of the JR Journal. They are usually about 3 years in arrears, but I note that at this point the soft copies are about 5 years in arrears. Since the Dime Census is published every four years, and the 2024 (and at this time, the 2020) editions aren't up on the portal, the most recent one I could find is 2016: https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/568039

I know the OP was about dimes, but someone else mentioned the half dimes. Since that's my area of interest, I'll put in a plug for those baby busties. I co-authored the 2023 half dime census. The prior census was in 2019, and there's a JRJ with that content but it's restricted for some reason (I've sent an email to someone who may be able to fix that): https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/608328

The half dime census before that was in 2015, and it's here: https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/568038

Interestingly, this 2015 edition has an article on bust coin survival estimates, by Winston Zack: https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/565591 that may inspire conversation.

Jump on in, the water's fine!

Early_Milled_Latin_America

I am collecting them in G-04 to F-12 (mostly). The more expensive ones will have to buy authentic graded coins. This is a life long goal I am still young enough.

EastonCollection

For the Early Dimes book, I know that we surveyed the pop reports along with the raw coins to determine the survival rate and determining rarity. While it makes rarity makes sense there are alot more raw coins in lower grades than "graded" coin by TPG. So when collecting early dimes, you need to consider this fact as well.

alaura22

@TheGoonies1985
You might want to start out with a Type set for dimes
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/denomination-type-sets/dime-type-set-1796-present/1494

Bikergeek

@Bikergeek said:

I know the OP was about dimes, but someone else mentioned the half dimes. Since that's my area of interest, I'll put in a plug for those baby busties. I co-authored the 2023 half dime census. The prior census was in 2019, and there's a JRJ with that content but it's restricted for some reason (I've sent an email to someone who may be able to fix that): https://nnp.wustl.edu/library/book/608328

Quoting myself is in bad form, but I wanted to follow up (for the hordes of you that are chomping at the bit!) to announce that the 2019 half dime census is now viewable in the link on the Newman Numismatic Portal. Thanks to the efforts of @BustDMs!

The John Reich Journal is even downloadable, in case you like to browse from your own PDF reader. Click the ellipses to open up the context menu, spank the "Downloadable files..." link, and hit the "Get PDF" button. On my browser, it opens in a new tab. From there, if you want to save locally, you can find the "Save" icon on the upper right of the PDF window and keep a local copy. (Assume similar for the ePub format, although I haven't used that).