Sold: Who wants to play “You’re the dealer - how would you price this recent auction win of yours?”?
MFeld
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Sometimes, there are good recent comps that make it relatively easy to price a coin at the “right” number. Other times, it can be a lot more difficult.
For purposes of privacy, the names, places, denomination, precise numbers, date, mint, grade and grading company have been omitted.
Only the following information is available to you:
CDN bid was $65,000.
Price guide was $100,000.
The most recent sale - same grading company and grade - was more than 10 years ago at $50,000.
Your maximum bid was $55,000.
You won the coin for $50,000.
What would your asking price be?
Please feel free to explain how you arrived at your price.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
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Comments
I would set my asking price at $60,000. This is a 20% markup over my cost, and gives me plenty of room to negotiate on a big ticket item.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
65K with room to move.
peacockcoins
As a non-dealer my response might be considered "incorrect", but I think I would ask CDN bid or maybe a little above in this scenario. However, I would consider any offer above my purchase price that makes my effort worthwhile. If the coin becomes stale inventory I might consider accepting a small loss just to free up the funds for more liquid coins.
Collector, occasional seller
I'd ask $70K. Would come down a grand or two, if negotiations ensued. That would still be below GS ask and well below PCGS retail.
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My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
$70,000
70% of price guide for same company graded coin leaves room for discount when motivated seller/buyer.
It depends. Do I want a quick sale? If so, in starting at 10 back of bid. If not, I'm starting at bid or 10% over bid.
Based on the information given, it looks like this was a very good buy. $5k under your high bid, the same price the last one sold for 10 years ago, $15k under CDN bid. I would probably price it at $75k. If one hasn't sold for 10 years, it's probably pretty rare and there is bound to be someone who has to have it.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Assuming that the $50k was the all in price, I would flip it to the cdn bidder.
I'd price it at $65K or less hoping for a quicker flip, aiming for no less than $60K for a neat min profit of 20%. Or I'd consider using the coin towards a bigger trade up, valued at CDN bid, and use that plus cash to aim even higher.
Not all CDN bids are actually live bids.
CDN bids are often not based on live bids.
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Was the coin beaned 10 years ago when auctioned? If not, is it beaned now,
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
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+1
One consideration will be that potential buyers will look for comps, just as you did, and find the recent sale at 50K. So even though you were willing to pay 55K, presumably because you were planning to sell it at something like 60K, you may instead want to offer it for sale for something more like 55K. Of course, there are many other factors to take into consideration, so the number could end up being something very different than that.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
So it could be a dummy number placed by the seller of the auctioned coin? Another thing to be wary of, if true.
CDN is just a price guide. They use all kinds of sources, including auction records, posted bids on various trading networks, private transactions, and anything else they can get their hands on. But ultimately, it's just a subjective price guide, and they are very clear about that if you read the fine print.
Edited to add that what they call "Bid" is essentially just their estimate of what a highly competitive dealer might offer to pay another dealer if asked for an offer.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Well this thread makes me feel good, as I’ve always tried to avoid asking more than 10% over the auction comp if it was recent. It seems like I always have trouble selling auction coins for more than about 5-10% over what they just sold for, regardless if I ripped it.
As we know the price guides are irrelevant anyway , and a better strategy might be using nearest neighbor or similar scarcity coin to try to nail down an appropriate trajectory. Not all coins are worth more than they were 10 years ago, many have stayed flat. Another key factor is how many are available on the market, and how often do they come available, if it’s a “find me another one then”, the seller obviously has more leverage.
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There’s not necessarily a correct (or incorrect) answer. But if there were, I certainly wouldn’t consider yours to be incorrect.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I didn’t indicate that the identical coin sold 10 years ago. I wrote “The most recent sale - same grading company and grade - was more than 10 years ago at $50,000.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
There’s no reason to think that a “dummy number” was placed by the seller or anyone else.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Don't want to turn this thread into a 200 post elmo pile, so i'll exit while the going is good.
So why bother adding a meaningless variable into your hypothetical?
(ok...that was my last post to thsi thread).
.
It's a perfectly fair question. CDN bids are not "meaningless". CDN is a very useful and widely used price guide, so the numbers are valid data points. As for why they call their prices "Bids", yes, it can definitely be confusing to a newbie, but there's nothing deceiptful about it. If you know the history of the publication, or if you read the explanation provided in the publication, it's pretty straightforward.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
OK. Was the "same grading company and grade" coin sold more than 10 years ago beaned when sold (or was it sold prior to CAC's establishment)? Is the coin you now have beaned?
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
As the dealer in this case, I’m probably trying to unload it fairly quickly for a modest return as my hypothetical business doesn’t often deal in $50k+ inventory and I can’t tie that much money up for too long.
If I’m spending that much, I’m confident I have access to buyers for a profit over my max bid and probably start about 20% over that (55x1.2=66) with wiggle room down to $55k if it takes too long.
Not a newbie though, I have been dealing in coins for 20 years. Never depended on printed price guides as they can be skewered to favor one team over another.
Mow let's say that I am a CDN member and post an ask price of $60k for this purchase. Will the bid still be $65k, of will JohnF scramble to make the spread work?
$50K + $18 worth of mustard to get me through the week. RGDS!
P.S.: If it gets the shinny little CRAPs all bets are off. THKS!
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I would price the item at $10,000 because I like to give things away.
But if @Davidk7 tries to buy it, price jumps to $80,000.
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The example from more than 10 years ago wasn’t CAC’d. And it was auctioned a few years after CAC was formed. The current purchase isn’t CAC’d either.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Now you're going OT. It's one thing to question why Mark included a price guide as a relevant factor in pricing a coin. It's another to get into a long discussion about the mechanics and philosophy of the CDN. So I'll respectfully ask you to start your own thread if the subject truly interests you, and I'm sure you'll learn a thing or two.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
$59,000
Too many factors left unstated...
Was $50k the final bid and you add 20% BP so you actually pay $62k? Or was the winning bid $40k which is $50k w/BP?
How rare/desireable/sought after is the coin? (How active/competitive is the registry?)
How likely is it that the auction captured the correct audience? Or did not present the coin optimally (ie bad pictures)?
How bad do you need the money? Some dealers like to move inventory fast, some apparently don't mind sitting on inventory.
In general I would market the coin higher and reduce until it sells, gauging interest from the market and being tempted to take quick profit.
To answer the question posed in the subject, I do not wish to play. I've been told I could be a serviceable buyer but I know I would be a terrible dealer. Way too impatient.
That being said, if I can sell it in a week or less for $52.5k I'd be delighted.
It's not meaningless. CDN uses a variety of real numbers to arrive at bids. Many things are live bids on the exchange. However, they also include auction results and other sale prices.
I would keep iy for at least another 10 years then if i was going to sell I would ask for 80K.
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$50,000 was the all-in bid, which included the buyer’s premium. I wouldn’t have stated that the coin was “won” for $50,000 if there was a buyer’s premium added to that amount.
The coin is legitimately rare, though I doubt that it’s part of too many registry sets.
The auction captured the correct audience.
You don’t need the money but hopefully, you’re a sharp dealer who doesn’t price coins so as to not sell them for a long time.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I think that overall, CDN is the most accurate/realistic pricing guide.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
“Don't want to turn this thread into a 200 post elmo pile, so i'll exit while the going is good.”
“(ok...that was my last post to thsi thread).”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
Because the auction result was not a fluke, it is a representation of the market. I think it would be hard to realize more than 10-15% markup in a retail venue in a relatively short time frame.
Discussion of "winning a coin for $50k" doesn't necessarily imply BP is included in the figure because some people will report the amount they entered to win to the auction rather than the amount they paid. I was pretty sure I knew what you meant but wanted to be sure.
Cool thread although I would not spend too much time worrying about what I paid. It is relevant only to the extent the potential buyer can see what I paid.
What a dealer pays for a coin is often an overrated metric. Too many dealers won't sell a stale coin until they get what they have into it and then a kicker. The sharpest dealers keep their inventory relatively fresh and sell at a loss when necessary.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
That is a 5% annual return, before taxes or other expenses. That is a hair better than T-Bills right now. Sounds like a strategy a collector might try, for something they like, but doesn't make much sense for a dealer.
i'd be hoping i could sell it in this case.
10% over, tops
I would consign it to great collections and would expect to realize 135,000.
I'm thinking the general coin market might be going down or at best stagnant in the near future so I would want to move a big ticket item before prices cratered. The goal would be a modest gain in a short period of time, so I'm starting at 53,500 (where I think someone would be likely to pick it up without much negotiation-might be wishful thinking though given how much people don't tend to like to pay any asking price). If it does not move, then I'd consider offers around the breakeven point of 50k. If it is still not selling, it might be a sign that the market is not there and it needs to go back to auction to salvage the funds and move on to something else (assuming this is a full time dealer perspective and one that does not want to hold the coin for years).
Great proposition to ponder!
If the coin is attractive and accurately graded, and I was willing to shell out $55k because I felt confident I could sell it for more, then I’d price it at $60k.
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The enjoyment of owning it for those 10 years would outstrip the monetary gain.
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I would price it at what I thought it was worth before I decided to raise my paddle for $50k, which would certainly be more than the 7-10% over hammer I’ve seen suggested here unless I knew I could flip it quickly. Otherwise I’d need a healthy upside to balance out risk of loss. As they say, scared money don’t make no money.
It seems most are formulating pricing as a function of their buy price, not perceived value. I would consider: What is the demand for the coin? Who are the buyers? Is it an absolute or conditional rarity? Are there any substitutes? Who are the specialists in this area? How can I market it? Etc.
And I’d have an exit plan lined up to mitigate downside risk. If 50% of the time I could sell it for $70k, and 50% of the time I have to offload it to a wholesaler for a $10k loss, that’s an acceptable risk as I’m coming out ahead $5k on avg. Whether that risk/reward makes sense would depend on my market assessment.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
The fact that it's a ~$50K coin that's currently non-CAC'd and it just went (to you) at auction for $50K will make sale at any significant markup pretty iffy. I'd likely price it at $55K and be ready to negotiate somewhat.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Clearly the price guides have significantly overvalued this particular coin. It sold for $50k at a public auction, it's worth $50k. As the dealer I'm banking on someone who didn't see it at auction or didn't realize they want it. I'd price it at $62k and be ready to negotiate with any serious buyer whose initial offer is close to or over the $50k I paid.
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