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$2,600 Gold -- How Is The Rising Price Changing The Market ?

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  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,562 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 21, 2024 2:44AM

    @fathom said:
    1n 1792 the Gov set the gold/silver ratio at 15/1.

    So in today's values that would mean either gold would be $465/oz or silver would be $174/oz.

    Point is the ratio is extremely high right now.

    That ratio has no bearing since the prices stopped being regulated. It is a free market in bullion now and the price is set by the market.

    If you want to invoke government power to set prices, gold should be $35 per ounce a it was in the 1960s prior to the freeing of the market.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,562 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @Mr Lindy said:
    @Mr Lindy said:
    $2,614 Gold this morning, Happy Friday !

    For raw, ungradeds, non-proofs....isn't $2,740 a bit steep ? That's almost 5% on a raw, ungraded bullion coin.l :o

    It's a bit steep... or very cheap if you use retail as your basis. How would you make available any such item to internet shoppers for $50 or $100 per coin?

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @Mr Lindy said:
    @Mr Lindy said:
    $2,614 Gold this morning, Happy Friday !

    For raw, ungradeds, non-proofs....isn't $2,740 a bit steep ? That's almost 5% on a raw, ungraded bullion coin.l :o

    It's a bit steep... or very cheap if you use retail as your basis. How would you make available any such item to internet shoppers for $50 or $100 per coin?

    Yes, dealers are market makers. They need to be compensated for the market risk they take for providing liquidity and product.

  • mark_dakmark_dak Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Relaxn said:
    According to the dealers today at the Grapevine show in Grapsvine Texas No one wants gold... Unless it is 10% back. It is hard to sell modern 5$ commems now and no one wants 20$ Liberties or St. Gaudens... I have never been in a room with bigger crooks in my life. It reminded me why I do not attend shows anymore. I could go one for hours about my interactions today... Mainly from the sell side but the buy side a little bit also. It was wild.

    I'm not sure that's really a fair comment(10% is nuts). It's hard to be upset that dealers wouldn't pony up for your gold at $2600 when they were getting multiple sellers and few buyers at new highs for the metal. You can't expect them to keep buying at $2600 if they're not seeing matching buyers. They can only carry so much inventory. Same happened earlier this year as the price crossed $2500 for the first time. Once the market becomes "comfortable" with $2600 gold the "comfort level" will ruse to a new height... gold ownwers must be patient.

    Mark

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I am sure there will be shows or other precious metal buying venues where liquidity will affect buy prices. Pricing dislocation.

    Momentum is a big deal in commodity pricing. The gold market is in accumulation mode. Currently, the thinking is dollar weakness and geopolitical make it an insurance policy and permanent hold. This will keep gold prices elevated, so we could be in this period of low premiums for awhile.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Liquidated said:
    I would be curious how many 1oz gold proof eagles have sold for 2024. Mints $800 premium on top of $2600 gold >would make a good study

    Is that data available ?

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,562 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @Liquidated said:
    I would be curious how many 1oz gold proof eagles have sold for 2024. Mints $800 premium on top of $2600 gold >would make a good study

    Is that data available ?

    Yes

  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,372 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Tough, tough time to pull the trigger on buying of Gold.
    Happy I have been bullion specific (rarely numismatic) stacking since triple digit pricing, but all is currently on hold, as others have noted.

    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,497 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The rising price of gold recently made a difference to me. I paid more than I would normally want to pay for a medal with about .70 ounce AGW. I figured if things continue this path, there may be zero numismatic premium that I would have to make up. Two of these gold medals exist, the rise in gold made it easier to pull that trigger

  • Jacques_LoungecoqueJacques_Loungecoque Posts: 733 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is it fair to say, the higher the price, the more potential buyers are foreclosed from the opportunity of participating? Is it that simple?

    If wages were keeping up that’d be one thing, but regardless of what any crooked Fed says, they are not.

    Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.

  • P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 2,561 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 22, 2024 3:41PM

    @Jacques_Loungecoque said:
    Is it fair to say, the higher the price, the more potential buyers are foreclosed from the opportunity of participating? Is it that simple?

    If wages were keeping up that’d be one thing, but regardless of what any crooked Fed says, they are not.

    Those are two different things. One can still participate by investing the same number of dollars, although they’ll get less gold. Whether one has the same number of dollars to invest or not is something else.

    Nothing is as expensive as free money.

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 22, 2024 4:01PM

    Many in my coin club bumping up prices in anticipation of higher. Others taking material off the market until things reach a stable level. One guy taken most of his gold off his table substituted junk boxes of high profit cheap material. Me just pursuing deals across the board as usual.

    Coins & Currency
  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,021 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Orlena said:
    Not entirely on subject, but I picked up a 1911D Indian head quarter eagle au55 for $3200 from my longtime local dealer - completed the entire 15 coin set! He’s had it for awhile and lowered the price recently. I’m delighted and felt like bragging. Thanks for indulging me.

    That's cool and I at least would be happy to indulge but you definitely owe us pictures!

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,380 ✭✭✭✭✭

    How do bullion sellers avoid the middleman dealers to get the best deal. Since gold buyers are the ones pushing up the prices, there must be a pent up demand somewhere, and local/small dealers can't find matching local buyers at $2,600+, at spot + 3-5%. So they turn to the big dealers in the market who want 3-5% and the local dealers want 5+%, so the little guy selling gets less favorable prices in this market. I'm thinking of selling some small gold and was hoping for spot minus 5, maybe 7%. Guess that ain't happening.

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,021 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 Thank you for your continuing reliable, well informed, and accurate market analysis. Given the quality of your thought, guessing you are a CFA?

  • dhikewhitneydhikewhitney Posts: 466 ✭✭✭✭

    Practically speaking, I cannot buy US pre 1933 gold coins anymore because I bought so many when gold was in the 400s per ounce.
    ☹️

  • dsessomdsessom Posts: 2,397 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have put gold buying on pause until the market levels out. I do believe there will be some pullback on gold price at some point in the next few years.

    Best regards,
    Dwayne F. Sessom
    Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 2,561 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CaptHenway said:
    What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?

    Not sure about b&m, but lots of people trying to unload gold and silver on the BST this week, some below spot.

    Nothing is as expensive as free money.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,562 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CaptHenway said:
    What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?

    Both.

  • vplite99vplite99 Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dsessom said:
    I have put gold buying on pause until the market levels out. I do believe there will be some pullback on gold price at some point in the next few years.

    There is NO WAY that prediction will NOT happen.

    Vplite99
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CaptHenway said:
    What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?

    It won't matter if the predictions of SWF, CB, and large institutions accumulating are true. It means every dip will be bought and folks will have to chase it higher.

    1 CB or SWF can buy or sell as much as tens of thousands of retail buyers, even a few hundred thousand.

  • JerseyBJerseyB Posts: 118 ✭✭✭

    @CaptHenway said:
    What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?

    My LCS has had multiple people in the shop the last 3 or 4 times I've gone in the past month or two. Usually there is maybe one other customer. Lots of selling.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @vplite99 said:
    There is NO WAY that prediction will NOT happen.

    Probably...but if gold is in a SECULAR bull market, folks will get their correction and find out they are buying HIGHER than if they had CHASED. Some of them...not all. :)

    Go back to multi-year bull moves in the 1970's or 2000's....failing to buy was usually the WRONG move, as you paid more later even AFTER a "correction."

  • Jacques_LoungecoqueJacques_Loungecoque Posts: 733 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.

    Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭✭✭

    After the 1980 correction it took 25 years to get to that same price in 2006.

  • P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 2,561 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @fathom said:
    After the 1980 correction it took 25 years to get to that same price in 2006.

    That was after a 20x rise in price in about 9 years. Gold has only roughly doubled, maybe 2.5x in the last 9 years to today. And if it is a sustainable bull market, it feels like we’re in early innings given the lackluster retail buying.

    Nothing is as expensive as free money.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @fathom said:
    After the 1980 correction it took 25 years to get to that same price in 2006.

    Because the price went up 20-fold in 9 years.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Jacques_Loungecoque said:
    Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.

    Got a source for this ? At one point in the 1920's and 1930's, French hoarders had 20% of all the gold on Earth.

  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Two of my gold coins weren't selling so I pulled them off ebay, raised their price $250, and they both sold in a day. I think things are getting pretty serious.

  • Jacques_LoungecoqueJacques_Loungecoque Posts: 733 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @Jacques_Loungecoque said:
    Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.

    Got a source for this ? At one point in the 1920's and 1930's, French hoarders had 20% of all the gold on Earth.

    One correction on my part, they have 3x US reserves, not 4x. That’s my error. Please see the links below. It’s still a sh!# ton of gold!

    https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/14/301412384/a-gold-obsession-pays-dividends-for-indian-women

    https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-who-has-maximum-gold-in-india-who-owns-22579618-kg-gold-in-the-country-3073819

    https://indianeconomyandmarket.com/2023/05/17/who-owns-the-most-gold/

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/spreading-light/indian-family-gold-holdings-boon-or-bane/

    There are no shortage of these stories and reports available on the old innerwebs.

    Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.

  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,380 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I noticed my local B&M has been open the past 2 Sundays, which was never open in the past. Did a double-take when I drove past the shop. Guess its to support all trading.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @P0CKETCHANGE said:
    I know it's futures, not spot, but it still surprised me.

    In a secular bull market, the futures are going to be accurate on the spot prices 90% of the time. And the pros follow the futures where liquidity is much greater.

    If there was strong selling, you'd see it in the futures market. Instead, accumulation continues.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,562 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @P0CKETCHANGE said:
    I know it's futures, not spot, but it still surprised me.

    In a secular bull market, the futures are going to be accurate on the spot prices 90% of the time. And the pros follow the futures where liquidity is much greater.

    If there was strong selling, you'd see it in the futures market. Instead, accumulation continues.

    That's not exactly true. The
    futures contain a time premium that evaporates as you near expiration. It's not a price prediction.

  • NysotoNysoto Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Interesting article in Yahoo Finance this morning "Costco still selling gold bars like hot cakes as prices surge"..."Costco began selling gold bars in the fall of 2023. Wells Fargo analysts have estimated Costco is selling $100 million to $200 million in gold bars each month."

    Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
  • P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 2,561 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Nysoto said:
    Interesting article in Yahoo Finance this morning "Costco still selling gold bars like hot cakes as prices surge"..."Costco began selling gold bars in the fall of 2023. Wells Fargo analysts have estimated Costco is selling $100 million to $200 million in gold bars each month."

    They sell bars and coins—it changes frequently. Low premiums, and you can get the credit card points/miles/cash back.

    Nothing is as expensive as free money.

  • telephoto1telephoto1 Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Per the Costco site on their Pamp bars..."Limit of 1 Transaction Per Membership, with a Maximum of 5 Units", so that is a large group of members buying. Smart play to use a cash back card especially if you're going to buy multiples. Not the smartest move on Costco's part to take CCs on bullion though. Debit cards, that I can see, but...


    RIP Mom- 1932-2012
  • coastaljerseyguycoastaljerseyguy Posts: 1,380 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Guessing Costco is probably underselling the local B&Ms, dealers must be losing a lot of business for $100-200MM monthly. Can't get a price on website unless a member, was wondering their markup.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,364 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Had a gold buyer in, recently. He never heard of executive order 6102 or that it was illegal to hoard gold, for a long time in America. He didn’t believe me, at first. That inspired him to buy more of the stuff. Of course gold dropped $25 today so that could have been a motivating factor.

    Amazing how history is so easily forgotten. When an ounce of gold was $20.

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,231 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    Had a gold buyer in, recently. He never heard of executive order 6102 or that it was illegal to hoard gold, for a long time in America. He didn’t believe me, at first. That inspired him to buy more of the stuff. Of course gold dropped $25 today so that could have been a motivating factor.

    Amazing how history is so easily forgotten. When an ounce of gold was $20.

    From 1834 to 1933, gold was $20.67 per Troy ounce. The $20 gold coin only had 0.9675 Troy ounces of gold so it would contain $20 worth of gold.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • Jacques_LoungecoqueJacques_Loungecoque Posts: 733 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just fyi. Interesting.

    Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.

  • Mr Lindy Mr Lindy Posts: 1,111 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Costco stock is like 900 a share.
    I considered it a few years ago a 250.

    They loose money on some things but overall they win.

    I am there every week or more often as they are on my route, easy drive by & shop.

    What's tax rate on PAMP bars compared to gold coins that have less taxes due in Colorado ?

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Jacques_Loungecoque said:

    Just fyi. Interesting.

    More measured by asset values as opposed to (consumer) prices. There has been a lot more than 24X credit inflation.

    That's also the primary reason for the current coin price level, the prices of other collectibles and art, and sports franchises.

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I always collected so 1/2 the value was intrinsic & 1/2 the value was numismatic.
    My thinking was that it would protect me from price swings.

    So far I have done well and am happy.

    Recommend the purchase of a $5200 coin ($2600 gold vale + $2600 collector value = $5200)
    Recommend the 1909-S if your into saints (very under valued at this time in collector value :) )

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