For raw, ungradeds, non-proofs....isn't $2,740 a bit steep ? That's almost 5% on a raw, ungraded bullion coin.l
It's a bit steep... or very cheap if you use retail as your basis. How would you make available any such item to internet shoppers for $50 or $100 per coin?
For raw, ungradeds, non-proofs....isn't $2,740 a bit steep ? That's almost 5% on a raw, ungraded bullion coin.l
It's a bit steep... or very cheap if you use retail as your basis. How would you make available any such item to internet shoppers for $50 or $100 per coin?
Yes, dealers are market makers. They need to be compensated for the market risk they take for providing liquidity and product.
@Relaxn said:
According to the dealers today at the Grapevine show in Grapsvine Texas No one wants gold... Unless it is 10% back. It is hard to sell modern 5$ commems now and no one wants 20$ Liberties or St. Gaudens... I have never been in a room with bigger crooks in my life. It reminded me why I do not attend shows anymore. I could go one for hours about my interactions today... Mainly from the sell side but the buy side a little bit also. It was wild.
I'm not sure that's really a fair comment(10% is nuts). It's hard to be upset that dealers wouldn't pony up for your gold at $2600 when they were getting multiple sellers and few buyers at new highs for the metal. You can't expect them to keep buying at $2600 if they're not seeing matching buyers. They can only carry so much inventory. Same happened earlier this year as the price crossed $2500 for the first time. Once the market becomes "comfortable" with $2600 gold the "comfort level" will ruse to a new height... gold ownwers must be patient.
I am sure there will be shows or other precious metal buying venues where liquidity will affect buy prices. Pricing dislocation.
Momentum is a big deal in commodity pricing. The gold market is in accumulation mode. Currently, the thinking is dollar weakness and geopolitical make it an insurance policy and permanent hold. This will keep gold prices elevated, so we could be in this period of low premiums for awhile.
@Liquidated said:
I would be curious how many 1oz gold proof eagles have sold for 2024. Mints $800 premium on top of $2600 gold >would make a good study
@Liquidated said:
I would be curious how many 1oz gold proof eagles have sold for 2024. Mints $800 premium on top of $2600 gold >would make a good study
Tough, tough time to pull the trigger on buying of Gold.
Happy I have been bullion specific (rarely numismatic) stacking since triple digit pricing, but all is currently on hold, as others have noted.
Should be an interesting opening in about an hour.
In May of 1966 I bought my first Double Eagle, a BU 1900-S, from Earl Schill in downtown Detroit behind the old Hudson's store. The price was $50, which was a lot of money to me at the time, as I was 15 years old.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
The rising price of gold recently made a difference to me. I paid more than I would normally want to pay for a medal with about .70 ounce AGW. I figured if things continue this path, there may be zero numismatic premium that I would have to make up. Two of these gold medals exist, the rise in gold made it easier to pull that trigger
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Is it fair to say, the higher the price, the more potential buyers are foreclosed from the opportunity of participating? Is it that simple?
If wages were keeping up that’d be one thing, but regardless of what any crooked Fed says, they are not.
Those are two different things. One can still participate by investing the same number of dollars, although they’ll get less gold. Whether one has the same number of dollars to invest or not is something else.
Many in my coin club bumping up prices in anticipation of higher. Others taking material off the market until things reach a stable level. One guy taken most of his gold off his table substituted junk boxes of high profit cheap material. Me just pursuing deals across the board as usual.
Not entirely on subject, but I picked up a 1911D Indian head quarter eagle au55 for $3200 from my longtime local dealer - completed the entire 15 coin set! He’s had it for awhile and lowered the price recently. I’m delighted and felt like bragging. Thanks for indulging me.
@Orlena said:
Not entirely on subject, but I picked up a 1911D Indian head quarter eagle au55 for $3200 from my longtime local dealer - completed the entire 15 coin set! He’s had it for awhile and lowered the price recently. I’m delighted and felt like bragging. Thanks for indulging me.
That's cool and I at least would be happy to indulge but you definitely owe us pictures!
“I think we are still riding the wave of central bank easing, the likelihood of more to come, I think we’re also adding on to the expectations of a weaker dollar,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
The U.S. dollar steadied to near 14-month lows against a basket of peers, making gold less expensive for overseas buyers. .
The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last week, and investors see about 58% chance of another 50 bps cut in November, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and U.S. inflation data later this week for further policy cues.
“We could see** **$2,700**** per ounce level in the next day or two if we continue to see weakening labour, and if we see the Fed presidents all reaffirming 50 basis point cuts,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Bullion has risen over 29% so far in 2024, with gains attributed to central bank easing and geopolitical issues.
ETF flows and ancillary factors including geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and the massive stimulus measures put in place by China continue to support and drive gold prices higher over the course of the last several weeks and today, Meger said.
Spot silver rose 0.1%% to $32.17 per ounce, having reached its highest levels since May earlier. Platinum added 1.2% to $997.80 and palladium shed 0.5% to $1,051.75
How do bullion sellers avoid the middleman dealers to get the best deal. Since gold buyers are the ones pushing up the prices, there must be a pent up demand somewhere, and local/small dealers can't find matching local buyers at $2,600+, at spot + 3-5%. So they turn to the big dealers in the market who want 3-5% and the local dealers want 5+%, so the little guy selling gets less favorable prices in this market. I'm thinking of selling some small gold and was hoping for spot minus 5, maybe 7%. Guess that ain't happening.
@coastaljerseyguy said:
How do bullion sellers avoid the middleman dealers to get the best deal. Since gold buyers are the ones pushing up the prices, there must be a pent up demand somewhere, and local/small dealers can't find matching local buyers at $2,600+, at spot + 3-5%. So they turn to the big dealers in the market who want 3-5% and the local dealers want 5+%, so the little guy selling gets less favorable prices in this market. I'm thinking of selling some small gold and was hoping for spot minus 5, maybe 7%. Guess that ain't happening.
Try the BST and sell directly to collectors.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I've worked for 2 private banks with clients who are the type to buy gold so here's my thoughts:
More and more people are holding gold -- it is "under accumulation" as Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital (leading bond firm) has noted. The people who don't know how to stream some of the NFL or MLB games that are solely on streaming networks (as opposed to their kids or grandkids) are not buying BitCoin or crypto -- they are buying gold.
Central Banks are also buying, partly in response to Russia's CB assets being frozen after they invaded Ukraine. But they are also buying because they were way underweight after 20 years of being net-sellers from 1980-2000 even if after that they were more neutral vs. net buyers or net sellers.
Don't forget countries that are now much wealthier: their Central Banks and their population are also buying more gold. India and China probably double their per-capita consumption/purchases every 10-15 yearrs. Decades ago it didn't matter much but now it does.
India is now up to about 800 tons of gold a year -- double what that chart ended at. And that is with 2 decades of "missed opportunity" economically as they had fits-and-starts but never replicated China's success since 2000.
Net-Net: All the positives for gold demand are lining up (only the rising price is a negative). And with no CBs unloading, supply is also constrained by rising costs and lack of big strikes:
@GoldFinger1969 Thank you for your continuing reliable, well informed, and accurate market analysis. Given the quality of your thought, guessing you are a CFA?
I have put gold buying on pause until the market levels out. I do believe there will be some pullback on gold price at some point in the next few years.
What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@dsessom said:
I have put gold buying on pause until the market levels out. I do believe there will be some pullback on gold price at some point in the next few years.
@CaptHenway said:
What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?
It won't matter if the predictions of SWF, CB, and large institutions accumulating are true. It means every dip will be bought and folks will have to chase it higher.
1 CB or SWF can buy or sell as much as tens of thousands of retail buyers, even a few hundred thousand.
@CaptHenway said:
What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?
My LCS has had multiple people in the shop the last 3 or 4 times I've gone in the past month or two. Usually there is maybe one other customer. Lots of selling.
@vplite99 said:
There is NO WAY that prediction will NOT happen.
Probably...but if gold is in a SECULAR bull market, folks will get their correction and find out they are buying HIGHER than if they had CHASED. Some of them...not all.
Go back to multi-year bull moves in the 1970's or 2000's....failing to buy was usually the WRONG move, as you paid more later even AFTER a "correction."
Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
@fathom said:
After the 1980 correction it took 25 years to get to that same price in 2006.
That was after a 20x rise in price in about 9 years. Gold has only roughly doubled, maybe 2.5x in the last 9 years to today. And if it is a sustainable bull market, it feels like we’re in early innings given the lackluster retail buying.
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.
Got a source for this ? At one point in the 1920's and 1930's, French hoarders had 20% of all the gold on Earth.
Two of my gold coins weren't selling so I pulled them off ebay, raised their price $250, and they both sold in a day. I think things are getting pretty serious.
@Jacques_Loungecoque said:
Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.
Got a source for this ? At one point in the 1920's and 1930's, French hoarders had 20% of all the gold on Earth.
One correction on my part, they have 3x US reserves, not 4x. That’s my error. Please see the links below. It’s still a sh!# ton of gold!
I noticed my local B&M has been open the past 2 Sundays, which was never open in the past. Did a double-take when I drove past the shop. Guess its to support all trading.
Comments
That ratio has no bearing since the prices stopped being regulated. It is a free market in bullion now and the price is set by the market.
If you want to invoke government power to set prices, gold should be $35 per ounce a it was in the 1960s prior to the freeing of the market.
It's a bit steep... or very cheap if you use retail as your basis. How would you make available any such item to internet shoppers for $50 or $100 per coin?
Yes, dealers are market makers. They need to be compensated for the market risk they take for providing liquidity and product.
I'm not sure that's really a fair comment(10% is nuts). It's hard to be upset that dealers wouldn't pony up for your gold at $2600 when they were getting multiple sellers and few buyers at new highs for the metal. You can't expect them to keep buying at $2600 if they're not seeing matching buyers. They can only carry so much inventory. Same happened earlier this year as the price crossed $2500 for the first time. Once the market becomes "comfortable" with $2600 gold the "comfort level" will ruse to a new height... gold ownwers must be patient.
Mark
I am sure there will be shows or other precious metal buying venues where liquidity will affect buy prices. Pricing dislocation.
Momentum is a big deal in commodity pricing. The gold market is in accumulation mode. Currently, the thinking is dollar weakness and geopolitical make it an insurance policy and permanent hold. This will keep gold prices elevated, so we could be in this period of low premiums for awhile.
Is that data available ?
Yes
Tough, tough time to pull the trigger on buying of Gold.
Happy I have been bullion specific (rarely numismatic) stacking since triple digit pricing, but all is currently on hold, as others have noted.
Should be an interesting opening in about an hour.
In May of 1966 I bought my first Double Eagle, a BU 1900-S, from Earl Schill in downtown Detroit behind the old Hudson's store. The price was $50, which was a lot of money to me at the time, as I was 15 years old.
The rising price of gold recently made a difference to me. I paid more than I would normally want to pay for a medal with about .70 ounce AGW. I figured if things continue this path, there may be zero numismatic premium that I would have to make up. Two of these gold medals exist, the rise in gold made it easier to pull that trigger
Is it fair to say, the higher the price, the more potential buyers are foreclosed from the opportunity of participating? Is it that simple?
If wages were keeping up that’d be one thing, but regardless of what any crooked Fed says, they are not.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Those are two different things. One can still participate by investing the same number of dollars, although they’ll get less gold. Whether one has the same number of dollars to invest or not is something else.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Many in my coin club bumping up prices in anticipation of higher. Others taking material off the market until things reach a stable level. One guy taken most of his gold off his table substituted junk boxes of high profit cheap material. Me just pursuing deals across the board as usual.
Not entirely on subject, but I picked up a 1911D Indian head quarter eagle au55 for $3200 from my longtime local dealer - completed the entire 15 coin set! He’s had it for awhile and lowered the price recently. I’m delighted and felt like bragging. Thanks for indulging me.
That's cool and I at least would be happy to indulge but you definitely owe us pictures!
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
From CNBC:
“I think we are still riding the wave of central bank easing, the likelihood of more to come, I think we’re also adding on to the expectations of a weaker dollar,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
The U.S. dollar steadied to near 14-month lows against a basket of peers, making gold less expensive for overseas buyers. .
The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points last week, and investors see about 58% chance of another 50 bps cut in November, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Lower interest rates boost non-yielding gold’s appeal.
Traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and U.S. inflation data later this week for further policy cues.
“We could see** **$2,700**** per ounce level in the next day or two if we continue to see weakening labour, and if we see the Fed presidents all reaffirming 50 basis point cuts,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Bullion has risen over 29% so far in 2024, with gains attributed to central bank easing and geopolitical issues.
ETF flows and ancillary factors including geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and the massive stimulus measures put in place by China continue to support and drive gold prices higher over the course of the last several weeks and today, Meger said.
Spot silver rose 0.1%% to $32.17 per ounce, having reached its highest levels since May earlier. Platinum added 1.2% to $997.80 and palladium shed 0.5% to $1,051.75
How do bullion sellers avoid the middleman dealers to get the best deal. Since gold buyers are the ones pushing up the prices, there must be a pent up demand somewhere, and local/small dealers can't find matching local buyers at $2,600+, at spot + 3-5%. So they turn to the big dealers in the market who want 3-5% and the local dealers want 5+%, so the little guy selling gets less favorable prices in this market. I'm thinking of selling some small gold and was hoping for spot minus 5, maybe 7%. Guess that ain't happening.
Try the BST and sell directly to collectors.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I've worked for 2 private banks with clients who are the type to buy gold so here's my thoughts:
More and more people are holding gold -- it is "under accumulation" as Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital (leading bond firm) has noted. The people who don't know how to stream some of the NFL or MLB games that are solely on streaming networks (as opposed to their kids or grandkids) are not buying BitCoin or crypto -- they are buying gold.
Central Banks are also buying, partly in response to Russia's CB assets being frozen after they invaded Ukraine. But they are also buying because they were way underweight after 20 years of being net-sellers from 1980-2000 even if after that they were more neutral vs. net buyers or net sellers.
Don't forget countries that are now much wealthier: their Central Banks and their population are also buying more gold. India and China probably double their per-capita consumption/purchases every 10-15 yearrs. Decades ago it didn't matter much but now it does.
India is now up to about 800 tons of gold a year -- double what that chart ended at. And that is with 2 decades of "missed opportunity" economically as they had fits-and-starts but never replicated China's success since 2000.
Net-Net: All the positives for gold demand are lining up (only the rising price is a negative). And with no CBs unloading, supply is also constrained by rising costs and lack of big strikes:
Historically, the big suppliers have run out:
@GoldFinger1969 Thank you for your continuing reliable, well informed, and accurate market analysis. Given the quality of your thought, guessing you are a CFA?
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Practically speaking, I cannot buy US pre 1933 gold coins anymore because I bought so many when gold was in the 400s per ounce.
☹️
I have put gold buying on pause until the market levels out. I do believe there will be some pullback on gold price at some point in the next few years.
What is happening in the brick and mortar stores? Are people cashing in to take a profit, or buying more?
Not sure about b&m, but lots of people trying to unload gold and silver on the BST this week, some below spot.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Both.
There is NO WAY that prediction will NOT happen.
It won't matter if the predictions of SWF, CB, and large institutions accumulating are true. It means every dip will be bought and folks will have to chase it higher.
1 CB or SWF can buy or sell as much as tens of thousands of retail buyers, even a few hundred thousand.
My LCS has had multiple people in the shop the last 3 or 4 times I've gone in the past month or two. Usually there is maybe one other customer. Lots of selling.
Probably...but if gold is in a SECULAR bull market, folks will get their correction and find out they are buying HIGHER than if they had CHASED. Some of them...not all.
Go back to multi-year bull moves in the 1970's or 2000's....failing to buy was usually the WRONG move, as you paid more later even AFTER a "correction."
Interesting note about gold. The sum gold holdings of Indian households is about 4 times the U.S. reserve holdings at Fort Knox, and predominantly in jewelry form. Estimated to be 11-12% of all the gold in the world. Those ladies sure do love their bling.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
After the 1980 correction it took 25 years to get to that same price in 2006.
That was after a 20x rise in price in about 9 years. Gold has only roughly doubled, maybe 2.5x in the last 9 years to today. And if it is a sustainable bull market, it feels like we’re in early innings given the lackluster retail buying.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Because the price went up 20-fold in 9 years.
Got a source for this ? At one point in the 1920's and 1930's, French hoarders had 20% of all the gold on Earth.
Two of my gold coins weren't selling so I pulled them off ebay, raised their price $250, and they both sold in a day. I think things are getting pretty serious.
One correction on my part, they have 3x US reserves, not 4x. That’s my error. Please see the links below. It’s still a sh!# ton of gold!
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/14/301412384/a-gold-obsession-pays-dividends-for-indian-women
https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-who-has-maximum-gold-in-india-who-owns-22579618-kg-gold-in-the-country-3073819
https://indianeconomyandmarket.com/2023/05/17/who-owns-the-most-gold/
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/spreading-light/indian-family-gold-holdings-boon-or-bane/
There are no shortage of these stories and reports available on the old innerwebs.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
I noticed my local B&M has been open the past 2 Sundays, which was never open in the past. Did a double-take when I drove past the shop. Guess its to support all trading.
I know it's futures, not spot, but it still surprised me.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.