$2,600 Gold -- How Is The Rising Price Changing The Market ?
GoldFinger1969
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With gold having crossed $2,600 and up strongly in recent months....I was wondering if buyers or dealers were seeing any changes as the price goes HIGHER (esp. from say $2,000 where it laid more or less for a few years).
For partial numismatic coins (i.e., MS-65 Saints)....will premiums expand or stay the same in percentage terms if gold keeps going higher ?
Are sellers seeing "sticker-shock" from buyers even for pure bullion coins with no premium ?
What about coins that normally didn't trade with the gold price -- numismatic premiums of 100% or more -- how will THEY reprice ?
A friend of mine is looking at an MCMVII High Relief Saint in the AU grades and I told him he shouldn't see any change unless something happened to the MCMVII HR market specifically....but even for a 5-figure coin, if gold keeps moving up at some point even high-premium coins can reprice off a much higher gold price (though for an MCMVII HR I would guess you'd need to see gold at $4-$5K).
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I talked with a few dealers at the ANA and also with a couple LCS operators who all said the premiums have disappeared and MS64 and lower common date DE's are basically selling at or even below melt. I saw two dealers selling (or trying to sell) MS62/63 common Saints below melt value at the ANA. A couple years ago they were a few hundred dollars over melt.
It would seem that the current spot price needs some getting used to. Right or wrong, I have been told if we get to $2800+ people could get excited again. I think there are a number of old time collectors that can't see paying $2600 for a common DE when they were just $500 in the early 2000's. Same with Eagles. Melt is now heading to $1300. Coins that were $700-800 a few years ago are now pricey to them.
A quick look at GC shows there are only 66 DE's up for auction this week. About 25% of them do not have a bid yet.
High dollar gold does not seem to be affected too much by spot. It's more supply and demand for those coins. The ones I am looking for seem to be getting more expensive by the day.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Premiums over spot for MS65 DEs were minimal a few months ago (gold at ~$2100/oz) and I'm glad I bought when I did.
The last gold piece I'm looking for... $3 for Type... actually seem to be getting LESS expensive as gold trends up.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Yes, I've also noticed that the common date $3s seem to be a bargain now compared to the past. These were always a highly prized type that sold at considerable premiums to other gold. When prices for things like $1s and $2 1/2s double, it makes the $3s that haven't risen look cheap in comparison. The $3s have not kept up proportionally and may represent a good buying opportunity. But in order to go up in value, more people have to demand them tomorrow than today and this is the uncertain part.
I was able to buy a 1915-S Saint MS-63 OGH at FUN 2020 for basically spot gold price (~ $1,600). When I went to sell it a year or so ago, between the OGH and the grade, I got like $2,300 when gold was at $2,000 (15% premium from flat at FUN).
I was surprised it went to such a premium but my LCS just went straight to his price guide (or double-checked online, I can't remember) and said $2,300. I was very surprised.
I sold most of my gold late last year. I hope all my buyers are happy!
Probably not as happy as the buyers that got the silver hoard I sold at $18 two years ago.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
What's a good way to sell sterling? My local shop is only paying $17.00 per troy ounce. We do have another place but they only pay 50% on AGEs, which makes me not want to deal with them.
I can sell small quantities on eBay but I have some large sterling objects which I don't want to risk there. It's beautiful stuff but there's no market for it anymore as antique artifacts. TIA.
...or the two books of silver Kennedy Commemorative Halves I sold to a dealer in 2004 for $4/oz... just before the run ups. I'd lugged those thing around for 10 years with silver consistently between ~3.50-5$/oz. Ah the 'good 'ole days!
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Glad I added 26.759 grams of 90% gold this summer before August. It has definitely appreciated. Also remember 3 years ago I bought my $20 Saint for $2200. Cool that the gold in the coin has appreciated hundreds of dollars more than what I bought it for.
Last couple of years at Canadian coin shows, I've been trading in my coins for gold.
I'm getting 50% of Canadian trends from dealers and have been accumulating gold.
Not so bad so far........
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The 3$ market is subject to great volatility as the demand is strongly influenced by the telemarketing operations. They start pushing them and we see a very comon issue like the 1878 in 64cac climb to $7500 plus. I saw a 64+ sell for over 10k. Now, you can buy a 64cac for around 6k-6500 retail. Like you say, it's probably a good buying opportunity if you can put up with the uncertainty, but I personally love the series and I never pass up on a real nice one.
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I'd expect generic eagles and DE premiums to shrink because these coins are actually bullion. (Plenty of non-US "classic" gold has sold for "melt" in the past if not now.) A post above mine mentions price resistance due to memory of much lower prices. Yes, there is some of that, but the more likely reason is that these coins just aren't interesting enough to most collectors as collectibles. There are nowhere near enough hobbyist collectors buying the most common dates (maybe those with 10,000+ in "high quality") as collectibles due to both the cost and available alternatives in the same price range. These coins are a lot more liquid, but $1300+ or $2600+ can buy a wide range of far more interesting coins.
On a coin like the HR Saint, I've informally noticed that the price of the common US Assay $20 hasn't moved nearly as much as the spot price either. (I haven;t checked it recently but this is what I noticed previously.)
If it lasts, I would expect that these meaningfully higher gold prices (and maybe silver if it happens) will lead to an increase in "investor" buying, concentrated mostly in the same coins as usual (US classic gold, Morgan dollars, and some NCLT).
I can say this, all open slots for gold coins in my type set have been curtailed. Not gonna happen at these prices. Not when there’s so much other stuff to buy at prices still well within Earth’s orbit. I doubt I’m alone.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Can you share some of the slots youre looking to fill? Im curious what issues youre referring to, because some of them have came back down to earth in the past couple months but its not yet reflected in the guides.
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Hopefully he takes your advice, someone looking for a HR should not be waiting on the sidelines right now. The floor for a decent coin is about 10k, and I dont see that going down. HR saint pricing hasnt gotten out of hand like some other issues. A 64cac is worth around 40k in todays market, but it was worth 32k in 2017. A 25% price increase, but taking into consideration that the money supply has increased by 25% (or more, I dont know), the price hasnt really changed at all.
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Almost all modern gold is basically bullion, including First Spouse and nearly all $5 and $10 commems in anything less than MS/PR70. Several of these coins have mintages under 2000. Does it make sense for the Mint to continue producing commemorative gold, given the lack of interest and/or affordability?
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I've kicked my gold purchasing into neutral-at least for the time being, Thankful for stacking a bunch away the past few years. Platinum and palladium eagles have been dropping and looking more attractive than a few short years ago, That is my short term route for now as for stacking bullion.
The prices of the more expensive (US) coinage have substantially been supported and inflated by the "wealth effect" from other asset classes for decades. Not going into details again but any reversion to "normal" valuations won't exactly be a positive. It hasn't happened - yet - but reality will eventually overtake the fantasy economy we currently live in.
In the short to intermediate term, I do expect higher gold spot to be a postive.
The bullion surge has sucked a lot of interest out of the collectibles. There were those who suggested years ago when gold was a little over $300/oz that if gold went up a lot graded type gold would amplify that, never happened. Also low grade silver dollars seem to have dropped to bullion or below. https://www.azcoinexchange.com/BuyList.htm
I monitor CDN and Kitco, draw my own conclusions. Already at plan investment level unless deal there, not real hot to buy non bullion.
I keep tabs on gold, silver, PCGS 3000 in my inventory spreadsheet. As far as coin collectibles been there done that. Maintaining bullion position however. More interest in currency / getting any raw worth grading sent in.
I would be curious how many 1oz gold proof eagles have sold for 2024. Mints $800 premium on top of $2600 gold would make a good study
I felt $1200 was a lot for gold. Still do. Relative value is not there for something to hidden away
Most of my local buyers have quit buying any larger gold period. Oz ,1/2 oz, $20 and $10's no buyers. Have to ship, and the places we ship too are getting father and farther back price wise. Not to mention the postal theft as i mentioned in another thread,
Also, the think I hate the most, and hard to explain too people, the price of gold is so high, it takes a tremendous amount of cash/capitol to make the same dollar profit amount. so lets say i buy 4 oz of gold, making about 50-60 per oz have to lay out 10.4k to make 240 bucks, where as gold even at 1700 6800 will make the 240 profit.
you may get answers here, but you'll get more help asking over on the precious metals forums. just ignore the infighting and bickering
There aren't enough hobbyist collectors who can both afford and like these coins enough as collectibles to pay this type of price. DE costs the same or more vs. somewhere in the vicinity of 99% of all coins, if the buyer is willing to compromise somewhat on quality. Eagles only somewhat better.
Number of set collectors must be really low and only somewhat more for those who collect partial sets. Type collectors maybe as many 50,000 max?
I'm now approaching a six-figure collection with four coins I know to be worth more than a generic DE, including two where I paid more. A few more compared to a generic eagle. I own one gold coin equivalent to a US QE, a leftover from when I used to collect South Africa Union. The vast majority of collectors probably don't own any gold coins, and they don't buy $1300 or $2600 coins either. They can't afford it.
2 major players I know increasing prices in anticipation of higher bullion levels. They definitely not giving any away. They also picking off pieces here and there for their bourse room retail strategy and sales to private retail clients.
As far as action on mine wonder if it on way to much higher level (world events).
If it goes to $3000….
Right, my only point was specifically about a High Relief. The floor for a decent coin is about 10k, and whether or not that has a relation to spot, Im not sure. But, the prices of those are fairly stable and the demand for the coins is so great that I never expect the floor price for a decent XF/AU to sink below the 10k mark. I could sell a roll of AU High Releifs at those levels and there would still be significant demand. If and when gold is $5,000/ounce, will the floor still be 10k? Or will it be 13-15k? Only time will tell.
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I like them too but the bid/ask spread is way too wide to stack them at a reasonable price.
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Hey Dan,
Anything gold. From eagles, to buffalos, to early 20th century types, to some early and modern commemoratives. It’s just the intrinsic price of gold and this new 30% increase we’ve had for a bit now. I just can’t reconcile paying $275 for a tenth ounce, or $1,300 for a half ounce of gold. I thought ~$2,000 was nuts, but it began to stick and looked like the new normal.
I totally get that it’s the market value, tied to spot, etc… which is all fine and dandy. It’s just when compared to what you could buy that’s non-gold for the same money…..
Perhaps gold goes up and they become more unobtainable. Perhaps it goes down and one day I will add them back. Gold just screams overvalued to me at the moment. Plus, I got nothing but time to wait and see. (I hope) 👍🏻
edit to add: my thinking is likely from seeing modern commems and 1/10’s going for $40-$50 for a good part of my early adult life. It’s become a mental hurdle I’m incapable of now leaping.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
But they sure do look great right now if you’re just wanting a one off, or some types. They’re looking very juicy indeed.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Ahh I see, I thought it might have been the numismatic premiums that you were resistant to. Sadly, I cant help you with the intrinsic premiums 😬.
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Gold has appreciated 25% since April so price resistance is expected.
How many coins can/will collectors buy if they need to pay $2500 + for 1 oz coins? Are many willing to make larger commitments to the metals?
Are all assets overvalued and we're in the "all everything bubble"?
Are homes, stocks (even crypto) also at risk or will a sharply higher money supply coupled perhaps with add'l QE keep the game going for awhile longer?
Perhaps gold is just a barbaric metal and the central banks buying caused a squeeze?
Perhaps Fiat currencies have run it's course? Perhaps we're in the early stage of a new world order?
Perhaps commodities are too cheap vs fin'l assets? Are we heading back to the 1970's?
Is gold too expensive and are stocks overpriced?
One chart tells nothing but I see quite a number of lines.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart#google_vignette
Then again, I have lived but not even one lifetime so I don't know.
I've long said (here and elsewhere) I think we hit $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035.
Those numbers could be a bit low but I'm not expecting any 1970's type multiple-level move where gold goes up 10-fold or 20-fold from the pre-Covid base level.
These higher prices are horrid. Got a call from a customer wanting to sell me ten ounces of gold. I told him: “ you just got it from me for under 2k per oz. a couple years ago”. He laughed and said ”yeah, I know”.
You know ? Love the hobby. The market is brutal.
High priced gold?
One of the things it's doing is that it seems to be sucking the numismatic value out of lower grade Mint State double eagles. One dealer had a number of them at his table at last week's Tampa coin show. They were graded PCGS MS-61, and the asking price was around $2,550. No one was scooping them up at that price.
1/10th ounce modern bullion coins ALWAYS sold at big premiums....I never saw them for 1/10th the spot price of gold. I'd say at my LCS you were looking at a 30% premium, on average.
Making an adjustment for the ~3% differnce in gold content for Double Eagles....that works out to $2,635. A bit of a premium to spot gold, but not unreasonable for a bullion-type coin.
However, I was able to get a real nice 1915-S in MS-63 with OGH back at FUN 2020 (I may have showed it to you ?). I think taking into account the 0.9675 ounces of gold, I paid spot or a bit above but very reasonable for a 63 OGH (I would sell it 3 years later for a 15% premium to spot gold).
you will see gold pop now with a .50 basis point cut, the dollar will drop against other currencys, there will be a few more interest rate cuts before the end of the year and inflation will be in the 4 percent area by december, buy now or pay more later
There hasn't been much numismatic value in MS61 for a long time. For about $130 more you can get a much nicer PCGS MS64. Add another $70 and you can score an MS65. With this modest a bump, anyone buying for their personal type set would likely go for a higher grade.
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I "stacked" from 300 to your 1200.
Still have it. Not stacking bullion any more.
Still buying numismatic that has a pretty good melt backup.
$2,614 Gold this morning, Happy Friday !
Here's some charts showing the premiums for Saints historically going back to the late-1990's.
You'll have to use your memory for the last few years, as I don't have newer, up-to-date charts but these do give you a flavor for where premiums have been for MS-65 and MS-62 Saints (commons) over longer periods of time.
Obviously, the 62's are almost or are straight bullion equivalents so take that into consideration when looking at the premiums.
At a local coin show this morning, I was quoted $2650 for a common $20 Lib, about a 5% premium.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
1n 1792 the Gov set the gold/silver ratio at 15/1.
So in today's values that would mean either gold would be $465/oz or silver would be $174/oz.
Point is the ratio is extremely high right now.
It's been high or above average most of the 21st century, only approaching "normal" at the last silver peak in 2011 when it was about 38. The last time it approached 15-1 was at the all-time peak for both (gold adjusted for price changes) in late 1979/early 1980.
My explanation for it?
Silver is no longer viewed as an equivalent monetary metal.
According to the dealers today at the Grapevine show in Grapsvine Texas No one wants gold... Unless it is 10% back. It is hard to sell modern 5$ commems now and no one wants 20$ Liberties or St. Gaudens... I have never been in a room with bigger crooks in my life. It reminded me why I do not attend shows anymore. I could go one for hours about my interactions today... Mainly from the sell side but the buy side a little bit also. It was wild.
That's a pretty accurate estimate, I would venture. I saw 25,000 from Doug Winter a few years ago I believe.
Even if it's 2x or 3x that figure, it's in the ballpark relative to the much smaller Registry Set collectors (~5,000) and the much larger Investor collectors (~500,000).
But maybe the NEW collectors -- the Covid Keyboard Crowd -- can afford it. Or at least some of them, those that moved on from buying low-grade Large Denomination Currency or lower-priced MSDs, moving them price-wise by 30-40% by early-2021 while most other stuff was flat-or-down.
For raw, ungradeds, non-proofs....isn't $2,740 a bit steep ? That's almost 5% on a raw, ungraded bullion coin.l
There is no realistic prospect of an increase in the hobbyist collector base maintaining noticeably higher premiums. The "collectors" you are writing about are almost certainly primarily financially motivated buyers either buying for speculation (rising gold price and an increased premium) or another reason like diversification.
No different for the Morgan dollars you reference, unless they are buying these coins in bulk. It's my inference that a very low proportion do it. Otherwise, the price difference is too large and I doubt more than a low proportion can afford the switch either.
No real changes here, I buy when I see something I wanna buy. RGDS!