I like Orlando but I wish it could be moved later in the month of January. Immediately after the holidays is always a tough time for me to take time off.
Wayne. Oh my. If we ever meet in person, any lunch you desire is on me. I would normally send this via PM, but I believe the Board should see the response.
Superb post. Not only salient points, well-considered and logically bulletproof, but crafted in a style that even impresses this 45-year English teacher (and erstwhile writer in some areas).
I was quite aware of your numismatic reputation and positive contributions . . . but this post has me sitting at my desk on a Sunday morning very thankful I clicked on the thread . . . . . . . . .
Well done. But . . . I think you already know that.
@renomedphys said:
I like the GAC show in Tampa and hope it works out. Of course, I have my reasons. But to be sure, there were a lot of great dealers present and the layout, location, and hall convenience were all just great. The only negative thing was the attendance, and the effect it had on the mood of the other dealers.
Kind of like saying you loved a great new restaurant that just opened. Beautiful decor, great location. Only problems were the prices were high and the food sucked. 🤣
@renomedphys said:
I like the GAC show in Tampa and hope it works out. Of course, I have my reasons. But to be sure, there were a lot of great dealers present and the layout, location, and hall convenience were all just great. The only negative thing was the attendance, and the effect it had on the mood of the other dealers.
Kind of like saying you loved a great new restaurant that just opened. Beautiful decor, great location. Only problems were the prices were high and the food sucked. 🤣
It did have a great location.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.
@wayneherndon said:
Kudos to a very well done OP that tees up a great topic for discussion.
The decision to have three shows a year could have more to do with having three opportunities to promote their brand to thousands of collectors and dealers rather than a belief that the market can support three shows.
Collectors Universe also operates PSA and the sports card and sport memorabilia niche is much bigger than the coin niche. Collectors Universe’s future growth opportunities are almost certainly larger in the sports card/memorabilia area than in numismatics. So, it should be no surprise that Long Beach has taken on a significant sports card/memorabilia focus. While we coin people might see it as a sign of decline it could very well be a sign of design from smart people who know exactly what they are doing.
Your point about CU and Sports cards is very interesting.
As for three shows a year, I would ask show organizers the following question:
"Imagine you are a collector living in city X. Which three shows a year will you travel to?"
If city X is Miami the answer might be Orlando and Tampa. Then try San Francisco, or Denver, or Phoenix or Salt Lake City or Dallas or Des Moines. Second-rate east-coast cities won't make the cut. Only Orlando is worth the trip.
So Long Beach and Whitman still want three shows a year? Okay, try marketing one show as a national signature show, while the other two can be regional/local shows with fewer dealers.
Fragmentation of the market with more shows isn't helpful. All the folks complaining about $38 admission fees in Tampa are admitting it was a local drive-to show. Admission fees don't matter if you are paying $1200 in airfare. But the latter group has zero interest in a third and fourth Florida show.
The ANA next year is another pre-ordained disaster. 60% of people will go to ANA OKC; 40% will go to alt-ANA in Rosemont. No one will get normal ANA business unless they attend both shows and combine receipts.
The organizers of last week’s Great American Coin and Collectibles Show held last week in Tampa would appreciate any input about the show, especially from those that actually attended the show. It is most helpful to send input directly.
If you are a collector, please send your input to collectorinput@gmail.com.
If you are a dealer, please send your input to dealerinput@gmail.com. Further, if you are a dealer, it is particularly helpful to describe your business model and its reliance on Public at a show. For example, is your business model wholesale dealer-to-dealer, retail to Public, or a combination of both? If the latter, what are the approximate percentages of each? Also, do shows in various locations offer you opportunities to meet in person with key clients?
The number one rule in real estate is location, location, location. For coin shows, the number one rule is location, location, location, location, location, location. It’s twice as important and there six significant location factors that must be considered. To have a sustained, successful national show you probably have to check all six boxes. Uncheck one or maybe two and it can still be a national show but isn’t going to one that is generally considered to be reliably good each time.
Location Factor 1: Where the collectors are – The further someone must travel to get to a show, the harder it will be to convince them. The percentage of potential attendees drops as the distance from the show venue increases. Thus, the show must be in geographic area with critical mass of collectors. Sure, some people will come from out of the area to support a show and the larger/better the show, the more out of area collectors it will attract. But the bulk of the attendance at any show is going to be relatively local. Small collector bases can support small shows. Medium collector bases can support medium shows. But, for large shows (“national” shows and shows with “national” aspirations) a very large base of local collectors is needed. Our hobby is pursued by a relatively small percentage of the population compared to other pastimes and collectibles (e.g., sports cards, comics, etc.). Given a very small percentage of the population is in a show’s target audience, several factors are necessary to achieve critical mass. First, the show needs to be in one of the country’s largest metropolitan areas. Second, even outside that metro area population should be dense and other major metros should be relatively close. Draw some concentric circles a set distances around the metro area. Each one of those circles should add substantial population counts to what is already in the show metro area. Third, it needs to be in one of the parts of the country with a higher percentage of coin collectors in the area.
First, this probably this means a metro area in roughly the top 20 to 25. Second, to get surrounding population density and other nearby metro areas that mostly means the northeast, Florida, the Midwest, and California. Prior to the early 20th century, numismatics was primarily a wealthy person’s pastime. This mean mostly the northeast part of the US. That area remains a denser pocket of collectors even today. But other areas have materialized as well. Especially Florida and California. Florida, probably mostly due to northeasterners wintering and retiring there. California can probably credit the lure of the gold rush era history. Otherwise, generally these areas outside of the northeast were originally populated by adventurers and those looking for economic opportunity and that culture still exists in these areas which tends to draw people to pastimes that are more consistent with that culture. Yes, this is over generalizing but it is a meaningful factor nonetheless in regards to density of coin collectors.
Here are two example cities to consider: Fifty miles from Baltimore includes much of the Washington DC metro area. 100 miles picks up Philadelphia. 200 miles picks up New York City. On the other hand, 50 miles from Denver adds little. 75 miles adds Colorado Springs. The next large metro areas beyond that are Salt Lake City and Albuquerque around 500 miles away. Want to play this distance math with another city? Try it here:
Spend a little time with these links and it becomes really easy to understand why national coin shows (and smaller ones too for that matter) are more prevalent in the eastern half of the country.
Location Factor 2: Where collectors want to go – National shows feature a larger percentage of higher end/slabbed coin dealers than the ratio of those collectors in the local area. No local area has enough of these collectors on its own to support the number of dealers in this segment that are needed for a show to attain “national” status. So, for these dealers who fly in from all over the country to sell their Registry Set level coins there needs to be an adequate number of collectors of these types of coins willing to travel in to the show from other parts of the country as well. Some of those collectors can be counted on to come just for the coins. But, once these collectors have decided to spend a couple of days of their time to attend a coin show, buy an airline ticket, rent a hotel room, etc. the difference between going to one national show versus another is typically not that big of a difference. So, which one(s) will they choose to go to? The answer to this question is very often where other aspects of the area where the show is held can influence the decision. Can they combine it with a business trip? Visit family or friends while in town? Or, are there other attractions in town that might enable the collector to turn the trip into a family vacation? For the out-of-towner a large show like FUN or the extra-curricular activities of an ANA might make them must attend shows for these collectors. But for the other shows, having some other reason for people to visit the area will help add critical mass. Aside from going for a coin show, which cities in the US are people most likely to want to visit? Fortunately, there’s some click bait on the internet for that:
Start to overlay those cities with answers to location factor 1 and you’ll begin to see some matches with existing national shows.
Location Factor 3: Business friendly state regulatory environment – States without at least some level of exemption for coins and bullion are probably dead in the water for national show consideration. If there are dollar amount limits, only applies to US legal tender, etc. then this will limit economic activity at the show but may not doom it. This seems to be a decent list of tax status by state:
If state laws mean show attendance establishes nexus for sales tax on non-show transactions shipped into the state or for proportionate income tax obligations then this likely to severely limit out of area dealer participation. Even beyond taxation, the overall business climate and regulatory environment in the state can similarly limit out of area participation. If permits or licenses required to occupy a both for example dealers (many of whom are one or two person operations) may choose not to deal with the hassle. Other regulatory factors can also come into play (e.g., recognition of out-of-state handgun permits). During the COVID era a show's policy around masking and vaccinations was sure to reduce participation no matter which way they went. The local jurisdiction's approach to law enforcement, crime and homeless can increase the actual or perceived risks to potential attendees and consequently impact participation. Regulation, rules and requirements can be death by 1000 cuts with no particular issue costing the show meaningful participation by itself but each “thing” causing a few dealers to opt out. Some of these come from the state and local government, some from the convention center and frequently some from the show itself.
Location Factor 4: Business friendly convention center – The willingness of the venue itself to work with the promoter and dealers to make sure everyone’s needs are accommodated varies greatly from convention center to convention center. Orlando and Rosemont, for example, are very easy to work with and eager to work with the organizations running the shows and the dealers renting the booths to make sure everything is smooth. On the other hand, Philadelphia -- while checking many of the other necessary location boxes for a successful coin show -- gets removed from the list simply due to the local convention center management practices that make it too costly and too difficult to have a coin show there.
Location Factor 5: Good air service – As described above, national shows depend on a significant number of dealers, early birds and collectors coming from well out of driving range. It is critical for many of these dealers to have full size jet service and generally direct flights. Some dealer insurance policies don’t cover checked bags. Other dealers don’t have insurance. Even those with checked bag coverage prefer to reduce the risk by taking their inventory into the cabin with them. And, to put those bags in the overhead bin above their seat so it is easy to keep an eye on anyone who opens that bin. It gets more complicated if they have to use an overhead elsewhere on the plane. This frequently is not an option for prop or even regional jet flights. Connecting flights pose additional risks and get more complicated moving heavy suitcases full of valuable items. Similarly, good air service means lower cost, less travel time and less inconvenience for early bird and collector attendees.
Location Factor 6: Does the city even want people like us? – Convention centers are typically owned by the local government (city or county) with the goal of increasing business and tourism to the area. Coin show attendance is smaller than other shows requiring the same amount of convention space. This means fewer hotel rooms and meals sold in the surrounding area. As a result, many convention centers in otherwise good locations just aren’t interested in hosting a coin show.
If you think about these factors and the national shows that have been around a few years you’ll see that the “better” ones check more of these location boxes. Efforts to start new national shows must match up well too. If you’re wondering why there aren’t shows in X city, then think about that city from the perspective of these six location factors. These six factors really mean that only a small handful of cities can potentially have a reliably strong national show. A few others might be able to host marginal ones or sometimes have a good one mixed in with others events that are less so. Everywhere else gets something less than national.
That was a long read but hopefully worth it to fully the convey the importance of location as a requisite for a strong national show. There are other requirements too and I'll get to those as I have the time turn thoughts to words.
Great comments WH. I will add my thoughts as a longtime collector in the Denver area.
1. I will travel by plane for a maximum of 3 shows a year. With Denver being a huge hub it’s easy to get anywhere. But I have time and family constraints, and also I don’t want to see the same stuff! Coins just don’t turn over that fast and I will almost certainly be viewing the same inventory if I go to shows less than a few months apart.
2. I will travel by car (less than 2-3 hours) to any show bigger than 30 tables. So local shows are fine AS LONG AS I KNOW ABOUT THEM! Sometimes they are not well advertised, even when an ad would cost nothing, like posting it to every board.
3. I think a good system would be 3 awesome national shows per year, spaced relatively evenly, (winter FUN, ANA rosemont, and spring or Fall Baltimore?) with the rest being well advertised regional shows in high density areas for mostly local collectors.
Having covered location, it is now time to turn our attention to the calendar. With 52 weekends in the year and roughly a dozen national shows one might think it would be relatively easy to schedule them all in a way that avoided cannibalizing other shows and give dealers time to refresh (themselves and their inventory). Yet, calendar reality for a national show is actually much more complex.
First, national shows need to avoid conflicts with other national shows. They also need the support of dealers and collectors in the region and local area. If they conflict with a regional show in their region, they’ll lose enough dealers and public to the regional show to damage the national one. Same for local shows in the local area. Plus, a national show needs to think broader than just the same weekend. If another national show is the weekend or two before that could split collector, early bird dealer and tabled dealer attendance enough to hurt the show. The risk is greater, the closer geographically the other show is. But even two show major shows on opposite coasts means the national dealers who do both have extensive travel to shows with just a few (probably one or two) days in between to recover, process inventory and paperwork, etc. Some will do it. But some will opt out of one show or the other.
The last half of December is pretty much out due to the holidays. While some regional local shows have found success over the Thanksgiving weekend a national show won’t be able to get enough dealers and collectors willing to give up their time with their families to succeed on that weekend. That leaves only one or two weekends available in early December for a show to squeeze in between Baltimore and Winter FUN. The Money Show of the Southwest did it for a few years before moving to late January. But in any event, the November and December holidays make a December major show difficult to reliably schedule. This of course benefits Winter FUN heavily as their show falls roughly two months after the last major show with everyone well rested and ready for action. It’s a new year and Florida is a great place to be in January.
June is another tough month. The ANA Summer Seminar takes place in June. It is a two week event but include travel time and that essentially kills three of the weekends in June. Many prominent dealers support the program by teaching classes. Add to that the graduations and weddings that will pick off a group of dealers, early birds and collectors each year in June. Fathers’ Day will impact some attendance for shows on that weekend and might be another reason for dealers to leave early if they do attend a show that weekend. Summer vacation impact hits June (along with July and August) shows. All of this is tough on June. There was a time when Long Beach summer show was frequently in late May and summer Baltimore was usually in July. But in recent years both have parked in June. To have two nationals try to make it in a weak month is asking too much as is evident by the performance of those two shows. The late July date for Baltimore was probably too close to both Summer FUN and the ANA, especially as Summer FUN rose in prominence. Anytime in August is too close to the ANA. September and May are too close to the Baltimore November and March shows. So I understand why Baltimore is in June for their summer show. It’s not as clear why Long Beach wants that month too, however.
Lesser headaches but scheduling concerns nonetheless are Mothers’ Day, Easter, and high travel holiday weekends (such as Memorial Day and Labor Day). Spring break is an issue as well and not just for cities that attract spring break crowds. Many families use that week for a family vacation. And, while it is just a week at any given school, across them all it covers at least a month in the spring. If the family took a vacation within a few weeks of a spring coin show that would require significant travel expense it is less likely that the collector in that family would attend having just recently spent discretionary travel dollars on the family vacation.
January and February shows need to be in warmer locations as an ill-timed snow storm that wreaks havoc on airline schedules would crush show attendance. Same thing for Florida shows during hurricane season.
Not counting the startups, we essentially have 11 shows that are considered national shows (3 Long Beach, 3 Baltimore, 2 ANA, 2 FUN and CSNS). With December out, that is basically one national show a month. So best case scenario is one roughly every 4 weeks if we could space them all out evenly. Even a two or three week variation from that schedule means a show is back-to-back with, or within two weeks of, another national show. It is easy to see how this can happen with holidays, convention center availability, and other scheduling factors. Even with 11 nationals we probably should expect this a couple of times a year. Now think about trying to squeeze a new show (2023 and 2024) or three (2025) into this calendar. Again, it’s pretty likely that shows are going to get too close to one another given calendar realities.
Coin shows have lost their luster for me. Here are some reasons why:
Travel, food and lodging are expensive and hectic.
I rarely meet interesting people or forumites. And, the dealers that I talk to are not interested in discussion, education or socialization. They just want to sell you something and move on.
I rarely see anything that I really want to buy and it’s mostly overpriced.
You are a target for criminals. I carry, but I’d rather just not put myself in that position in the first place.
Bidding and buying are much easier, comfortable and more successful for me from home or at the office.
If you love shows, then God Bless you, and I will not begrudge you. But, They are just not for me, anymore. Especially, at this point in my numismatic collecting & investing experience.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@wayneherndon said:
The Calendar is Harder than it Looks
Having covered location, it is now time to turn our attention to the calendar. With 52 weekends in the year and roughly a dozen national shows one might think it would be relatively easy to schedule them all in a way that avoided cannibalizing other shows and give dealers time to refresh (themselves and their inventory). Yet, calendar reality for a national show is actually much more complex.
Show Schedules - I read one comment or more on how the 2025 ANA being on August 19 - 23 and the new GACC show being on Sept. 23 - 27 was putting two shows on top of each other. I chuckled a little on this one as they are a month apart (finish to start). For as long as I can recall the 'major' shows (Long Beach, Baltimore, FUN, ANA, CSNS) have had two shows inside of this one month time frame. Actually a month can be a decent amount of time between them. So I thought I would put together a list of these show for 2025 to show what I am indicating (hopefully no typos). Note: with the above there are 11 shows and the GACC adds 2 more. So they often wind up being within a month of each other and even a week.
2025
Jan 9 - 11 FUN
Feb 20 - 22 Long Beach
Feb 27 - March 1 ANA National Money Show
March 27 - 29 Baltimore
April 1 - 5 GACC show
April 23 - 26 CSNS
May - empty
June 19 - 21 Baltimore
June 26 - 28 Long Beach
July 10 -12 FUN summer
August 19 - 23 ANA
Sept 3 - 6 IMEX (does this count?)
Sept 23 - 27 GACC show
Oct 23 - 25 Long Beach (never recall it being this late, normally Sept)
Nov 6 - 8 Baltimore
@wayneherndon said:
I read one comment or more on how the 2025 ANA being on August 19 - 23 and the new GACC show being on Sept. 23 - 27 was putting two shows on top of each other.
Would GACC have chosen Rosemont if ANA hadn't chosen OKC? The problem isn't the amount of time between the shows, it is the venue choice of Rosemont is clearly aimed at making GACC into the alt-ANA and splitting attendance.
There's a lot of competition between Long Beach and Baltimore time-wise, which doesn't matter for regional collectors, but does matter if top dealers don't have enough business to show up for either.
June rivals December for the worst month of the year for shows. Graduations, weddings, vacations, barbeques, etc.
I read one comment or more on how the 2025 ANA being on August 19 - 23 and the new GACC show being on Sept. 23 - 27 was putting two shows on top of each other.
Would GACC have chosen Rosemont if ANA hadn't chosen OKC? The problem isn't the amount of time between the shows, it is the venue choice of Rosemont is clearly aimed at making GACC into the alt-ANA and splitting attendance.
.
While that may be the your 'clearly aimed' thing, my post was and is about other posts in various threads indicating that the time between ANA and GACC was a short time - but in terms of show schedules it is not as shown and I agree with wayneherndon.
I will pass on the other stuff.
There are four categories of people a national show must attract to be successful. Different marketing channels and approaches have different results with each group. So it really needs to be a multi-faceted effort with a strategy, or group of strategies, for each target category of participants.
Dealers—The dealers who rent tables at a show are essentially the people who are paying for the show. Their bourse fees account for the bulk of a show’s revenue. So, they are a critical group in order to cover the show’s expenses, marketing, and (hopefully) a profit for the organizer. Beyond bourse fees, most of the additional revenue a show collects also comes from this same group of dealers in the form of sponsorships, advertising, and other a-la-cart fees. Fortunately, this is also the easiest to market to of all the groups. National show dealers all come together in one place at some show every few weeks. So marketing to them is essentially a trip to the show and then walking down the aisles stopping at each booth to hand out flyers, applications and share the show spiel. It is harder to say no when the bourse director is standing there pitching the show in person. These dealers attend shows to make money. So, the prospect having another weekend buying and selling inventory is often all it takes to sign them up. Regional dealers and local dealers in the show’s geographic area can similarly be recruited in the same fashion.
Early bird – Early birds are sometimes serious collectors who are willing to pay a fee to get into the show early but generally speaking these are other dealers who don’t want the expense of a table, probably aren’t staying at the show for more than a day or two and are there primarily to do wholesale business (buy or sell) with the dealers who have tables. As other professionals in the business they typically spend way more than collectors annually and can also be a good source of fresh inventory for the dealers who rent tables. They are generally the bigger spenders or sellers at shows so getting them to the show is very important to help the tabled dealers get their numbers up. The early bird fee is typically a lot more than the price of collector admission (if there is even an admission charge for collectors) yet way less than what the tabled dealers pay. So, while they are a decent add-on source of revenue for the show, they don’t come anywhere near paying the show’s bills. Marketing to them is a bit harder to do but not as necessary. They are also there to do business so simply getting enough of the dealer group above is often all that is needed to attract this group.
Collectors – This group doesn’t bring the show much revenue, even when there is an admission fee. But they are critical for revenue for the first group. Without them, it gets a lot harder to recruit that first group in subsequent years. Unfortunately, marketing to this group is a huge challenge. There aren’t good lists of show-prone collectors, must less by geographic region. Advertising in coin publications pays for lots of impressions but primarily reaches collectors who buy through the mail from advertisers in the publication. General advertising (TV, radio, billboards) means paying for huge visibility while probably way less than 1% of the eyeballs are the relevant audience. The shows that have good collector traffic tend to be shows that have been around a long time, been consistent in registering attendees and then using that registration list to promote future shows. This takes time to build. I haven’t seen any show with a marketing/promotion strategy that can achieve national show level customer attendance in the short term.
Non-collectors – This group is important too. Typically, these represent estates and collections of former collectors for sale. This group is unlikely to be tuned into coin news so the marketing channels that work for collectors usually don’t work for this group. Since it is so recent, let’s take a look at what GACC did to reach this group. In the weeks leading up to the shows, there was a steady stream of announcements and press releases. Each one grew in significance. Think about a fireworks show or an entertainment performance like a concert or magic show. The action builds until the grand finale or crescendo. In GACC’s case there was a grand finale a few days before the show that was creatively coordinated with one of the show's sponsors that resulted in national “news” about the 1975 No S dime. This is the kind of story that reaches this non-collector group and makes them think “Hey, grandpa’s collection is gathering dust in the closet. I wonder if he had one of those dimes. Let’s take it to the coin show and find out.” The ANA typically does a campaign like this every year to varying effect depending on the material with which they have to work. That show is annual and rotates around the country which makes it easier to accomplish. This is way more difficult to pull off every year at the same show in the same city and even more so twice or three times a year. So, usually, this type of promotion is seen at major shows or well managed startups looking for just the right story to "go viral". IMEX also had a marketing effort of this type.
The owners of restaurants, retail storefronts, online businesses and other similar continuous operation businesses can see how their marketing campaigns are working based on traffic and tweak them as needed. Often there are metrics to show which strategies have a positive ROI and which do not. Once strategies are tweaked, the success of the changes can frequently be determined in just a few days by monitoring the changes in traffic or conversions following the adjustment, allowing further tweaking as needed. This means that for most ventures there is an opportunity to monitor the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and optimize them in real time. On the other hand, for events like national coin shows, the whole marketing and promotion budget is spent in the weeks and months before opening day with no way to know until the show starts how effective the strategies were. By then, it's too late to adjust if something didn't work. Once the show provides that feedback, it's another year before a revised strategy can be implemented and tested. This extended delay in the marketing feedback loop process is another complicating factor new shows face.
People often look at the past in order to predict the future. Of course, just because something happened previously doesn’t mean it will happen again. Notwithstanding, by studying the past we can better understand and anticipate the conditions, circumstances and context that are likely to influence the future. So, let’s take a drive down memory lane and review the past 20-25 years or so of national coin shows. (I’m working entirely from memory here so please let me know if I’ve missed anything.)
First, the current national shows (excluding startups) are pretty much the same ones we had 20-25 years ago. I believe Baltimore’s third show was added sometime in the more than 20 but less than 25 year range. I could be off a year or two though. The 2024 Summer FUN show was the 18th annual. Its origin before that was a privately run show started as a national show effort in West Palm. It didn’t do well and after two to three years was either sold to FUN or maybe it shut down and FUN filled the vacuum by starting Summer FUN in West Palm. Summer FUN stayed in West Palm for a few years but it was not successful there. The organization moved it to Orlando where it grew and, more recently, thrived. CSNS went steadily downhill for many years during much of this period before finally turning the corner a few years back to the point that it has now recovered its status as a respectable national show. Until 2010, the CSNS show moved around the multi-state region but the non-Chicago Midwestern cities could not support a periodic national show. In 2011, a decision was made to make Schaumburg permanently home. The three Long Beach and two ANA shows round out the rest of picture.
The ANA briefly tried to duplicate the smaller spring National Money Show with a similarly sized and conceived fall version. I believe that lasted for only two shows but perhaps it was as many as three. I think this was going on around 2010-2011 (ish).
Whitman tried to establish a national show in Philadelphia in 2010-2013. They had the show in 2010 and 2011 but then cancelled it in 2012 for reasons I do not remember. It came back in 2013 but it was communicated at the time that the 2013 show would be the last. Whitman also made a few attempts in Atlanta and tried once in Nashville.
Carl Schwenker’s valiant efforts with the Houston Coin Club were able to turn it into the Money Show of the Southwest for a few years in the downtown Houston convention center. But the national status of the show could not survive without his tireless efforts and it has since resumed being a nice regional show in the outskirts of town.
We probably should include CoinFest which took place in the roughly 2008-2010 timeframe. It attracted a roster of dealers that would certainly qualify it for national status. CAC stickered coins onsite but I don’t recall PCGS or NGC attending, although they might have. The major auction houses did attend and I believe at least one (Heritage?) had an official show auction for at least one of the shows.
To summarize, during this 20 to 25 year time frame, we lost two national shows (2x Santa Clara), gained two that have so far survived (both of which (Summer Baltimore and Summer FUN) were additional frequencies from established players) and had another attempted expansion and several startup efforts, none of which were able to gain enough traction to operate beyond a few years.
At the moment, we have IMEX and GACC trying to find footing. Launching a new show takes a lot of hard work, risks a lot of money and even when everything is done right, the location or the calendar can still sink it. It’s too soon to know whether these two new efforts have enough new ideas, financial backing, and perseverance to achieve a level of success that will allow them to attain a sustainable position.
We have had two successful national show startups in the past 20-25 years as described previously. Both of these were existing shows with established customer bases adding another show in the existing city. In the case of FUN, they started in another city but it didn’t become successful until it moved to the same city. The other startups were starting from scratch (with the exception of the ANA’s Fall National Money Show) and they didn’t make it.
It should be clear to everyone that a prospective new national show faces a deck stacked against them. The other national shows already have the best locations. They also have staked their claims on the best dates on the calendar. The existing national shows have robust registration lists of thousands of prior attendees with mailing addresses and maybe email addresses. This makes it easy and inexpensive to market the show to a highly qualified group (who is more likely to attend than someone who has attended before?). Their marketing budget can be used for prospecting for additional customers which is more difficult and costly. The new show, on the other, has no pre-vetted list of likely attendees and is forced to rely exclusively on prospecting.
A muscle car might be able to go from 0 to 60 in X seconds but it is probably not reasonable to expect a coin show to go from 0 to national in a one outing. The existing national shows didn’t go from 0 to national in a year or even several years. While I’m sure the startups are hoping they can do 0 to national in a year or two, they need to be prepared for the long haul in case that does not happen. Hopefully they are capitalized well enough to endure a period of initial losses and are flexible, lean, agile competitors willing to assess and redirect following disappointments.
The concepts communicated in the OP above about the future of coins shows can be heard in chatter between attendees (dealers and public) at pretty much any show these days. It might be in the context of the future (like the OP), the current state of shows, or reminiscing about coin shows of yesteryear, but the content of the mumbling and grumbling sounds a lot like what was posted above. There is no doubt in my mind that the people behind IMEX and GACC heard it too. And, they decided they could do it better. This is exactly how capitalism and the market system are supposed to work. If there is the perception that established operators are not doing things as well as they should, new entrants who believe they can do it better or believe they have better ideas will challenge them. The market then sorts it out. Sometimes the new entrants succeed and become leaders in the industry. Other times, they don’t. Sometimes their better ideas or employees get picked up and incorporated into the products, services or staff of other players thereby improving on the status quo even if the new entrants themselves are not successful.
Of course, the established players rarely sit on their hands in the face of competition from new entrants. They might adjust schedules, take steps to shore up their customers (dealers and collectors), adopt some of the ideas of the upstarts or even be spurred to innovate in their own ways. This is progress as well.
While this process might on an interim basis produce more shows than are needed and spread business too thin, that is a temporary situation while the market decides who remains and who has to bail. In the meantime, new ideas get tested (dealer trading rooms, collector annex rooms, and high profile key note speakers, to list just a few examples). Sometimes these are entirely new concepts and sometimes they are ideas for updating or modernizing longstanding concepts. In any event, new ideas get tried and tested. Some of these may be winning ideas and become standard industry practice. Others may have sounded good in the brainstorming session but fail in the real world setting. We will soon have those answers because bold entrepreneurs in our industry are currently giving these new concepts a market test.
What we are witnessing today is a perfect example of capitalism, the market system and entrepreneurship (the willingness to risk one’s capital, energy and time in pursuit of success and vision). We are also likely to witness the process of evolution where the players left standing are the ones that are strongest, have the best ideas, and are overall the best situated to lead the industry going forward. I for one am happy to see that this process is alive and well in our industry. This is what will keep us growing, innovating and relevant to an audience that has easy access to more information than ever before, is embracing technology, and is evolving as well. While temporarily it means juggling more shows than are needed and having shows that are not as productive as they would otherwise be, in the long run the process we are witnessing right now is exactly what we need in order to determine -- in OP’s words -- “The Future of Coin Shows.”
Wayne, I love your very detailed, very thought out, and very well written analysis on this topic. I hope all current and future show promoters read this. I also think it would make a great article if you wanted to submit it to one of the coin publications and/or post it on social media as well.
We 2nd The Penny Lady's compliment, comment and suggestion that your outstanding analysis and insights be compiled into a "national" magazine cover-story (both print and online) -- thanks so much for sharing, Mr Wayne!
Certainly the COVID years impacted coin show attendance. Collectors gained comfort with buying on-line and the decision by auction companies to not have their auctions during a major show further reduced collector attendance.
The ANA's decision to hold their show in Oklahoma along with a competing show in Chicago will disrupt the symbiotic relationship described between dealers and collectors that helps a show survive. I think the ANA made a bad decision with OKC in their attempt to attract collectors to a show where a significant number of dealers and collectors won't attend.
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Comments
I like Orlando but I wish it could be moved later in the month of January. Immediately after the holidays is always a tough time for me to take time off.
Wayne. Oh my. If we ever meet in person, any lunch you desire is on me. I would normally send this via PM, but I believe the Board should see the response.
Superb post. Not only salient points, well-considered and logically bulletproof, but crafted in a style that even impresses this 45-year English teacher (and erstwhile writer in some areas).
I was quite aware of your numismatic reputation and positive contributions . . . but this post has me sitting at my desk on a Sunday morning very thankful I clicked on the thread . . . . . . . . .
Well done. But . . . I think you already know that.
Drunner
Kind of like saying you loved a great new restaurant that just opened. Beautiful decor, great location. Only problems were the prices were high and the food sucked. 🤣
It did have a great location.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.
Your point about CU and Sports cards is very interesting.
As for three shows a year, I would ask show organizers the following question:
"Imagine you are a collector living in city X. Which three shows a year will you travel to?"
If city X is Miami the answer might be Orlando and Tampa. Then try San Francisco, or Denver, or Phoenix or Salt Lake City or Dallas or Des Moines. Second-rate east-coast cities won't make the cut. Only Orlando is worth the trip.
So Long Beach and Whitman still want three shows a year? Okay, try marketing one show as a national signature show, while the other two can be regional/local shows with fewer dealers.
Fragmentation of the market with more shows isn't helpful. All the folks complaining about $38 admission fees in Tampa are admitting it was a local drive-to show. Admission fees don't matter if you are paying $1200 in airfare. But the latter group has zero interest in a third and fourth Florida show.
The ANA next year is another pre-ordained disaster. 60% of people will go to ANA OKC; 40% will go to alt-ANA in Rosemont. No one will get normal ANA business unless they attend both shows and combine receipts.
The organizers of last week’s Great American Coin and Collectibles Show held last week in Tampa would appreciate any input about the show, especially from those that actually attended the show. It is most helpful to send input directly.
If you are a collector, please send your input to collectorinput@gmail.com.
If you are a dealer, please send your input to dealerinput@gmail.com. Further, if you are a dealer, it is particularly helpful to describe your business model and its reliance on Public at a show. For example, is your business model wholesale dealer-to-dealer, retail to Public, or a combination of both? If the latter, what are the approximate percentages of each? Also, do shows in various locations offer you opportunities to meet in person with key clients?
The number one rule in real estate is location, location, location. For coin shows, the number one rule is location, location, location, location, location, location. It’s twice as important and there six significant location factors that must be considered. To have a sustained, successful national show you probably have to check all six boxes. Uncheck one or maybe two and it can still be a national show but isn’t going to one that is generally considered to be reliably good each time.
Location Factor 1: Where the collectors are – The further someone must travel to get to a show, the harder it will be to convince them. The percentage of potential attendees drops as the distance from the show venue increases. Thus, the show must be in geographic area with critical mass of collectors. Sure, some people will come from out of the area to support a show and the larger/better the show, the more out of area collectors it will attract. But the bulk of the attendance at any show is going to be relatively local. Small collector bases can support small shows. Medium collector bases can support medium shows. But, for large shows (“national” shows and shows with “national” aspirations) a very large base of local collectors is needed. Our hobby is pursued by a relatively small percentage of the population compared to other pastimes and collectibles (e.g., sports cards, comics, etc.). Given a very small percentage of the population is in a show’s target audience, several factors are necessary to achieve critical mass. First, the show needs to be in one of the country’s largest metropolitan areas. Second, even outside that metro area population should be dense and other major metros should be relatively close. Draw some concentric circles a set distances around the metro area. Each one of those circles should add substantial population counts to what is already in the show metro area. Third, it needs to be in one of the parts of the country with a higher percentage of coin collectors in the area.
First, this probably this means a metro area in roughly the top 20 to 25. Second, to get surrounding population density and other nearby metro areas that mostly means the northeast, Florida, the Midwest, and California. Prior to the early 20th century, numismatics was primarily a wealthy person’s pastime. This mean mostly the northeast part of the US. That area remains a denser pocket of collectors even today. But other areas have materialized as well. Especially Florida and California. Florida, probably mostly due to northeasterners wintering and retiring there. California can probably credit the lure of the gold rush era history. Otherwise, generally these areas outside of the northeast were originally populated by adventurers and those looking for economic opportunity and that culture still exists in these areas which tends to draw people to pastimes that are more consistent with that culture. Yes, this is over generalizing but it is a meaningful factor nonetheless in regards to density of coin collectors.
Here’s a list of largest metro areas in the US:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/
Here’s a density map showing population:
https://ecpmlangues.unistra.fr/civilization/geography/map-us-population-density-2021
Here’s another showing towns:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-population-density-dot-town/
Here are two example cities to consider: Fifty miles from Baltimore includes much of the Washington DC metro area. 100 miles picks up Philadelphia. 200 miles picks up New York City. On the other hand, 50 miles from Denver adds little. 75 miles adds Colorado Springs. The next large metro areas beyond that are Salt Lake City and Albuquerque around 500 miles away. Want to play this distance math with another city? Try it here:
https://www.statsamerica.org/radius/big.aspx
Spend a little time with these links and it becomes really easy to understand why national coin shows (and smaller ones too for that matter) are more prevalent in the eastern half of the country.
Location Factor 2: Where collectors want to go – National shows feature a larger percentage of higher end/slabbed coin dealers than the ratio of those collectors in the local area. No local area has enough of these collectors on its own to support the number of dealers in this segment that are needed for a show to attain “national” status. So, for these dealers who fly in from all over the country to sell their Registry Set level coins there needs to be an adequate number of collectors of these types of coins willing to travel in to the show from other parts of the country as well. Some of those collectors can be counted on to come just for the coins. But, once these collectors have decided to spend a couple of days of their time to attend a coin show, buy an airline ticket, rent a hotel room, etc. the difference between going to one national show versus another is typically not that big of a difference. So, which one(s) will they choose to go to? The answer to this question is very often where other aspects of the area where the show is held can influence the decision. Can they combine it with a business trip? Visit family or friends while in town? Or, are there other attractions in town that might enable the collector to turn the trip into a family vacation? For the out-of-towner a large show like FUN or the extra-curricular activities of an ANA might make them must attend shows for these collectors. But for the other shows, having some other reason for people to visit the area will help add critical mass. Aside from going for a coin show, which cities in the US are people most likely to want to visit? Fortunately, there’s some click bait on the internet for that:
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/most-visited-american-cities
Start to overlay those cities with answers to location factor 1 and you’ll begin to see some matches with existing national shows.
Location Factor 3: Business friendly state regulatory environment – States without at least some level of exemption for coins and bullion are probably dead in the water for national show consideration. If there are dollar amount limits, only applies to US legal tender, etc. then this will limit economic activity at the show but may not doom it. This seems to be a decent list of tax status by state:
https://www.thecoinvault.com/topic/State-Sales-Tax-Requirements
If state laws mean show attendance establishes nexus for sales tax on non-show transactions shipped into the state or for proportionate income tax obligations then this likely to severely limit out of area dealer participation. Even beyond taxation, the overall business climate and regulatory environment in the state can similarly limit out of area participation. If permits or licenses required to occupy a both for example dealers (many of whom are one or two person operations) may choose not to deal with the hassle. Other regulatory factors can also come into play (e.g., recognition of out-of-state handgun permits). During the COVID era a show's policy around masking and vaccinations was sure to reduce participation no matter which way they went. The local jurisdiction's approach to law enforcement, crime and homeless can increase the actual or perceived risks to potential attendees and consequently impact participation. Regulation, rules and requirements can be death by 1000 cuts with no particular issue costing the show meaningful participation by itself but each “thing” causing a few dealers to opt out. Some of these come from the state and local government, some from the convention center and frequently some from the show itself.
Location Factor 4: Business friendly convention center – The willingness of the venue itself to work with the promoter and dealers to make sure everyone’s needs are accommodated varies greatly from convention center to convention center. Orlando and Rosemont, for example, are very easy to work with and eager to work with the organizations running the shows and the dealers renting the booths to make sure everything is smooth. On the other hand, Philadelphia -- while checking many of the other necessary location boxes for a successful coin show -- gets removed from the list simply due to the local convention center management practices that make it too costly and too difficult to have a coin show there.
Location Factor 5: Good air service – As described above, national shows depend on a significant number of dealers, early birds and collectors coming from well out of driving range. It is critical for many of these dealers to have full size jet service and generally direct flights. Some dealer insurance policies don’t cover checked bags. Other dealers don’t have insurance. Even those with checked bag coverage prefer to reduce the risk by taking their inventory into the cabin with them. And, to put those bags in the overhead bin above their seat so it is easy to keep an eye on anyone who opens that bin. It gets more complicated if they have to use an overhead elsewhere on the plane. This frequently is not an option for prop or even regional jet flights. Connecting flights pose additional risks and get more complicated moving heavy suitcases full of valuable items. Similarly, good air service means lower cost, less travel time and less inconvenience for early bird and collector attendees.
Location Factor 6: Does the city even want people like us? – Convention centers are typically owned by the local government (city or county) with the goal of increasing business and tourism to the area. Coin show attendance is smaller than other shows requiring the same amount of convention space. This means fewer hotel rooms and meals sold in the surrounding area. As a result, many convention centers in otherwise good locations just aren’t interested in hosting a coin show.
If you think about these factors and the national shows that have been around a few years you’ll see that the “better” ones check more of these location boxes. Efforts to start new national shows must match up well too. If you’re wondering why there aren’t shows in X city, then think about that city from the perspective of these six location factors. These six factors really mean that only a small handful of cities can potentially have a reliably strong national show. A few others might be able to host marginal ones or sometimes have a good one mixed in with others events that are less so. Everywhere else gets something less than national.
That was a long read but hopefully worth it to fully the convey the importance of location as a requisite for a strong national show. There are other requirements too and I'll get to those as I have the time turn thoughts to words.
WH
Great comments WH. I will add my thoughts as a longtime collector in the Denver area.
1. I will travel by plane for a maximum of 3 shows a year. With Denver being a huge hub it’s easy to get anywhere. But I have time and family constraints, and also I don’t want to see the same stuff! Coins just don’t turn over that fast and I will almost certainly be viewing the same inventory if I go to shows less than a few months apart.
2. I will travel by car (less than 2-3 hours) to any show bigger than 30 tables. So local shows are fine AS LONG AS I KNOW ABOUT THEM! Sometimes they are not well advertised, even when an ad would cost nothing, like posting it to every board.
3. I think a good system would be 3 awesome national shows per year, spaced relatively evenly, (winter FUN, ANA rosemont, and spring or Fall Baltimore?) with the rest being well advertised regional shows in high density areas for mostly local collectors.
The Calendar is Harder than it Looks
Having covered location, it is now time to turn our attention to the calendar. With 52 weekends in the year and roughly a dozen national shows one might think it would be relatively easy to schedule them all in a way that avoided cannibalizing other shows and give dealers time to refresh (themselves and their inventory). Yet, calendar reality for a national show is actually much more complex.
First, national shows need to avoid conflicts with other national shows. They also need the support of dealers and collectors in the region and local area. If they conflict with a regional show in their region, they’ll lose enough dealers and public to the regional show to damage the national one. Same for local shows in the local area. Plus, a national show needs to think broader than just the same weekend. If another national show is the weekend or two before that could split collector, early bird dealer and tabled dealer attendance enough to hurt the show. The risk is greater, the closer geographically the other show is. But even two show major shows on opposite coasts means the national dealers who do both have extensive travel to shows with just a few (probably one or two) days in between to recover, process inventory and paperwork, etc. Some will do it. But some will opt out of one show or the other.
The last half of December is pretty much out due to the holidays. While some regional local shows have found success over the Thanksgiving weekend a national show won’t be able to get enough dealers and collectors willing to give up their time with their families to succeed on that weekend. That leaves only one or two weekends available in early December for a show to squeeze in between Baltimore and Winter FUN. The Money Show of the Southwest did it for a few years before moving to late January. But in any event, the November and December holidays make a December major show difficult to reliably schedule. This of course benefits Winter FUN heavily as their show falls roughly two months after the last major show with everyone well rested and ready for action. It’s a new year and Florida is a great place to be in January.
June is another tough month. The ANA Summer Seminar takes place in June. It is a two week event but include travel time and that essentially kills three of the weekends in June. Many prominent dealers support the program by teaching classes. Add to that the graduations and weddings that will pick off a group of dealers, early birds and collectors each year in June. Fathers’ Day will impact some attendance for shows on that weekend and might be another reason for dealers to leave early if they do attend a show that weekend. Summer vacation impact hits June (along with July and August) shows. All of this is tough on June. There was a time when Long Beach summer show was frequently in late May and summer Baltimore was usually in July. But in recent years both have parked in June. To have two nationals try to make it in a weak month is asking too much as is evident by the performance of those two shows. The late July date for Baltimore was probably too close to both Summer FUN and the ANA, especially as Summer FUN rose in prominence. Anytime in August is too close to the ANA. September and May are too close to the Baltimore November and March shows. So I understand why Baltimore is in June for their summer show. It’s not as clear why Long Beach wants that month too, however.
Lesser headaches but scheduling concerns nonetheless are Mothers’ Day, Easter, and high travel holiday weekends (such as Memorial Day and Labor Day). Spring break is an issue as well and not just for cities that attract spring break crowds. Many families use that week for a family vacation. And, while it is just a week at any given school, across them all it covers at least a month in the spring. If the family took a vacation within a few weeks of a spring coin show that would require significant travel expense it is less likely that the collector in that family would attend having just recently spent discretionary travel dollars on the family vacation.
January and February shows need to be in warmer locations as an ill-timed snow storm that wreaks havoc on airline schedules would crush show attendance. Same thing for Florida shows during hurricane season.
Not counting the startups, we essentially have 11 shows that are considered national shows (3 Long Beach, 3 Baltimore, 2 ANA, 2 FUN and CSNS). With December out, that is basically one national show a month. So best case scenario is one roughly every 4 weeks if we could space them all out evenly. Even a two or three week variation from that schedule means a show is back-to-back with, or within two weeks of, another national show. It is easy to see how this can happen with holidays, convention center availability, and other scheduling factors. Even with 11 nationals we probably should expect this a couple of times a year. Now think about trying to squeeze a new show (2023 and 2024) or three (2025) into this calendar. Again, it’s pretty likely that shows are going to get too close to one another given calendar realities.
Coin shows have lost their luster for me. Here are some reasons why:
If you love shows, then God Bless you, and I will not begrudge you. But, They are just not for me, anymore. Especially, at this point in my numismatic collecting & investing experience.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
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Agree and as I posted in another thread.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13789740/#Comment_13789740
Show Schedules - I read one comment or more on how the 2025 ANA being on August 19 - 23 and the new GACC show being on Sept. 23 - 27 was putting two shows on top of each other. I chuckled a little on this one as they are a month apart (finish to start). For as long as I can recall the 'major' shows (Long Beach, Baltimore, FUN, ANA, CSNS) have had two shows inside of this one month time frame. Actually a month can be a decent amount of time between them. So I thought I would put together a list of these show for 2025 to show what I am indicating (hopefully no typos). Note: with the above there are 11 shows and the GACC adds 2 more. So they often wind up being within a month of each other and even a week.
2025
Jan 9 - 11 FUN
Feb 20 - 22 Long Beach
Feb 27 - March 1 ANA National Money Show
March 27 - 29 Baltimore
April 1 - 5 GACC show
April 23 - 26 CSNS
May - empty
June 19 - 21 Baltimore
June 26 - 28 Long Beach
July 10 -12 FUN summer
August 19 - 23 ANA
Sept 3 - 6 IMEX (does this count?)
Sept 23 - 27 GACC show
Oct 23 - 25 Long Beach (never recall it being this late, normally Sept)
Nov 6 - 8 Baltimore
Dec - empty
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_KWVk0XeB9o - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Piece Of My Heart
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
Would GACC have chosen Rosemont if ANA hadn't chosen OKC? The problem isn't the amount of time between the shows, it is the venue choice of Rosemont is clearly aimed at making GACC into the alt-ANA and splitting attendance.
There's a lot of competition between Long Beach and Baltimore time-wise, which doesn't matter for regional collectors, but does matter if top dealers don't have enough business to show up for either.
June rivals December for the worst month of the year for shows. Graduations, weddings, vacations, barbeques, etc.
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While that may be the your 'clearly aimed' thing, my post was and is about other posts in various threads indicating that the time between ANA and GACC was a short time - but in terms of show schedules it is not as shown and I agree with wayneherndon.
I will pass on the other stuff.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_KWVk0XeB9o - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Piece Of My Heart
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
Marketing and Promoting a National Show
There are four categories of people a national show must attract to be successful. Different marketing channels and approaches have different results with each group. So it really needs to be a multi-faceted effort with a strategy, or group of strategies, for each target category of participants.
Dealers—The dealers who rent tables at a show are essentially the people who are paying for the show. Their bourse fees account for the bulk of a show’s revenue. So, they are a critical group in order to cover the show’s expenses, marketing, and (hopefully) a profit for the organizer. Beyond bourse fees, most of the additional revenue a show collects also comes from this same group of dealers in the form of sponsorships, advertising, and other a-la-cart fees. Fortunately, this is also the easiest to market to of all the groups. National show dealers all come together in one place at some show every few weeks. So marketing to them is essentially a trip to the show and then walking down the aisles stopping at each booth to hand out flyers, applications and share the show spiel. It is harder to say no when the bourse director is standing there pitching the show in person. These dealers attend shows to make money. So, the prospect having another weekend buying and selling inventory is often all it takes to sign them up. Regional dealers and local dealers in the show’s geographic area can similarly be recruited in the same fashion.
Early bird – Early birds are sometimes serious collectors who are willing to pay a fee to get into the show early but generally speaking these are other dealers who don’t want the expense of a table, probably aren’t staying at the show for more than a day or two and are there primarily to do wholesale business (buy or sell) with the dealers who have tables. As other professionals in the business they typically spend way more than collectors annually and can also be a good source of fresh inventory for the dealers who rent tables. They are generally the bigger spenders or sellers at shows so getting them to the show is very important to help the tabled dealers get their numbers up. The early bird fee is typically a lot more than the price of collector admission (if there is even an admission charge for collectors) yet way less than what the tabled dealers pay. So, while they are a decent add-on source of revenue for the show, they don’t come anywhere near paying the show’s bills. Marketing to them is a bit harder to do but not as necessary. They are also there to do business so simply getting enough of the dealer group above is often all that is needed to attract this group.
Collectors – This group doesn’t bring the show much revenue, even when there is an admission fee. But they are critical for revenue for the first group. Without them, it gets a lot harder to recruit that first group in subsequent years. Unfortunately, marketing to this group is a huge challenge. There aren’t good lists of show-prone collectors, must less by geographic region. Advertising in coin publications pays for lots of impressions but primarily reaches collectors who buy through the mail from advertisers in the publication. General advertising (TV, radio, billboards) means paying for huge visibility while probably way less than 1% of the eyeballs are the relevant audience. The shows that have good collector traffic tend to be shows that have been around a long time, been consistent in registering attendees and then using that registration list to promote future shows. This takes time to build. I haven’t seen any show with a marketing/promotion strategy that can achieve national show level customer attendance in the short term.
Non-collectors – This group is important too. Typically, these represent estates and collections of former collectors for sale. This group is unlikely to be tuned into coin news so the marketing channels that work for collectors usually don’t work for this group. Since it is so recent, let’s take a look at what GACC did to reach this group. In the weeks leading up to the shows, there was a steady stream of announcements and press releases. Each one grew in significance. Think about a fireworks show or an entertainment performance like a concert or magic show. The action builds until the grand finale or crescendo. In GACC’s case there was a grand finale a few days before the show that was creatively coordinated with one of the show's sponsors that resulted in national “news” about the 1975 No S dime. This is the kind of story that reaches this non-collector group and makes them think “Hey, grandpa’s collection is gathering dust in the closet. I wonder if he had one of those dimes. Let’s take it to the coin show and find out.” The ANA typically does a campaign like this every year to varying effect depending on the material with which they have to work. That show is annual and rotates around the country which makes it easier to accomplish. This is way more difficult to pull off every year at the same show in the same city and even more so twice or three times a year. So, usually, this type of promotion is seen at major shows or well managed startups looking for just the right story to "go viral". IMEX also had a marketing effort of this type.
The owners of restaurants, retail storefronts, online businesses and other similar continuous operation businesses can see how their marketing campaigns are working based on traffic and tweak them as needed. Often there are metrics to show which strategies have a positive ROI and which do not. Once strategies are tweaked, the success of the changes can frequently be determined in just a few days by monitoring the changes in traffic or conversions following the adjustment, allowing further tweaking as needed. This means that for most ventures there is an opportunity to monitor the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and optimize them in real time. On the other hand, for events like national coin shows, the whole marketing and promotion budget is spent in the weeks and months before opening day with no way to know until the show starts how effective the strategies were. By then, it's too late to adjust if something didn't work. Once the show provides that feedback, it's another year before a revised strategy can be implemented and tested. This extended delay in the marketing feedback loop process is another complicating factor new shows face.
WH
People often look at the past in order to predict the future. Of course, just because something happened previously doesn’t mean it will happen again. Notwithstanding, by studying the past we can better understand and anticipate the conditions, circumstances and context that are likely to influence the future. So, let’s take a drive down memory lane and review the past 20-25 years or so of national coin shows. (I’m working entirely from memory here so please let me know if I’ve missed anything.)
First, the current national shows (excluding startups) are pretty much the same ones we had 20-25 years ago. I believe Baltimore’s third show was added sometime in the more than 20 but less than 25 year range. I could be off a year or two though. The 2024 Summer FUN show was the 18th annual. Its origin before that was a privately run show started as a national show effort in West Palm. It didn’t do well and after two to three years was either sold to FUN or maybe it shut down and FUN filled the vacuum by starting Summer FUN in West Palm. Summer FUN stayed in West Palm for a few years but it was not successful there. The organization moved it to Orlando where it grew and, more recently, thrived. CSNS went steadily downhill for many years during much of this period before finally turning the corner a few years back to the point that it has now recovered its status as a respectable national show. Until 2010, the CSNS show moved around the multi-state region but the non-Chicago Midwestern cities could not support a periodic national show. In 2011, a decision was made to make Schaumburg permanently home. The three Long Beach and two ANA shows round out the rest of picture.
The ANA briefly tried to duplicate the smaller spring National Money Show with a similarly sized and conceived fall version. I believe that lasted for only two shows but perhaps it was as many as three. I think this was going on around 2010-2011 (ish).
Whitman tried to establish a national show in Philadelphia in 2010-2013. They had the show in 2010 and 2011 but then cancelled it in 2012 for reasons I do not remember. It came back in 2013 but it was communicated at the time that the 2013 show would be the last. Whitman also made a few attempts in Atlanta and tried once in Nashville.
Carl Schwenker’s valiant efforts with the Houston Coin Club were able to turn it into the Money Show of the Southwest for a few years in the downtown Houston convention center. But the national status of the show could not survive without his tireless efforts and it has since resumed being a nice regional show in the outskirts of town.
We probably should include CoinFest which took place in the roughly 2008-2010 timeframe. It attracted a roster of dealers that would certainly qualify it for national status. CAC stickered coins onsite but I don’t recall PCGS or NGC attending, although they might have. The major auction houses did attend and I believe at least one (Heritage?) had an official show auction for at least one of the shows.
To summarize, during this 20 to 25 year time frame, we lost two national shows (2x Santa Clara), gained two that have so far survived (both of which (Summer Baltimore and Summer FUN) were additional frequencies from established players) and had another attempted expansion and several startup efforts, none of which were able to gain enough traction to operate beyond a few years.
At the moment, we have IMEX and GACC trying to find footing. Launching a new show takes a lot of hard work, risks a lot of money and even when everything is done right, the location or the calendar can still sink it. It’s too soon to know whether these two new efforts have enough new ideas, financial backing, and perseverance to achieve a level of success that will allow them to attain a sustainable position.
We have had two successful national show startups in the past 20-25 years as described previously. Both of these were existing shows with established customer bases adding another show in the existing city. In the case of FUN, they started in another city but it didn’t become successful until it moved to the same city. The other startups were starting from scratch (with the exception of the ANA’s Fall National Money Show) and they didn’t make it.
It should be clear to everyone that a prospective new national show faces a deck stacked against them. The other national shows already have the best locations. They also have staked their claims on the best dates on the calendar. The existing national shows have robust registration lists of thousands of prior attendees with mailing addresses and maybe email addresses. This makes it easy and inexpensive to market the show to a highly qualified group (who is more likely to attend than someone who has attended before?). Their marketing budget can be used for prospecting for additional customers which is more difficult and costly. The new show, on the other, has no pre-vetted list of likely attendees and is forced to rely exclusively on prospecting.
A muscle car might be able to go from 0 to 60 in X seconds but it is probably not reasonable to expect a coin show to go from 0 to national in a one outing. The existing national shows didn’t go from 0 to national in a year or even several years. While I’m sure the startups are hoping they can do 0 to national in a year or two, they need to be prepared for the long haul in case that does not happen. Hopefully they are capitalized well enough to endure a period of initial losses and are flexible, lean, agile competitors willing to assess and redirect following disappointments.
The concepts communicated in the OP above about the future of coins shows can be heard in chatter between attendees (dealers and public) at pretty much any show these days. It might be in the context of the future (like the OP), the current state of shows, or reminiscing about coin shows of yesteryear, but the content of the mumbling and grumbling sounds a lot like what was posted above. There is no doubt in my mind that the people behind IMEX and GACC heard it too. And, they decided they could do it better. This is exactly how capitalism and the market system are supposed to work. If there is the perception that established operators are not doing things as well as they should, new entrants who believe they can do it better or believe they have better ideas will challenge them. The market then sorts it out. Sometimes the new entrants succeed and become leaders in the industry. Other times, they don’t. Sometimes their better ideas or employees get picked up and incorporated into the products, services or staff of other players thereby improving on the status quo even if the new entrants themselves are not successful.
Of course, the established players rarely sit on their hands in the face of competition from new entrants. They might adjust schedules, take steps to shore up their customers (dealers and collectors), adopt some of the ideas of the upstarts or even be spurred to innovate in their own ways. This is progress as well.
While this process might on an interim basis produce more shows than are needed and spread business too thin, that is a temporary situation while the market decides who remains and who has to bail. In the meantime, new ideas get tested (dealer trading rooms, collector annex rooms, and high profile key note speakers, to list just a few examples). Sometimes these are entirely new concepts and sometimes they are ideas for updating or modernizing longstanding concepts. In any event, new ideas get tried and tested. Some of these may be winning ideas and become standard industry practice. Others may have sounded good in the brainstorming session but fail in the real world setting. We will soon have those answers because bold entrepreneurs in our industry are currently giving these new concepts a market test.
What we are witnessing today is a perfect example of capitalism, the market system and entrepreneurship (the willingness to risk one’s capital, energy and time in pursuit of success and vision). We are also likely to witness the process of evolution where the players left standing are the ones that are strongest, have the best ideas, and are overall the best situated to lead the industry going forward. I for one am happy to see that this process is alive and well in our industry. This is what will keep us growing, innovating and relevant to an audience that has easy access to more information than ever before, is embracing technology, and is evolving as well. While temporarily it means juggling more shows than are needed and having shows that are not as productive as they would otherwise be, in the long run the process we are witnessing right now is exactly what we need in order to determine -- in OP’s words -- “The Future of Coin Shows.”
Wayne, I love your very detailed, very thought out, and very well written analysis on this topic. I hope all current and future show promoters read this. I also think it would make a great article if you wanted to submit it to one of the coin publications and/or post it on social media as well.
The Penny Lady®
We 2nd The Penny Lady's compliment, comment and suggestion that your outstanding analysis and insights be compiled into a "national" magazine cover-story (both print and online) -- thanks so much for sharing, Mr Wayne!
Certainly the COVID years impacted coin show attendance. Collectors gained comfort with buying on-line and the decision by auction companies to not have their auctions during a major show further reduced collector attendance.
The ANA's decision to hold their show in Oklahoma along with a competing show in Chicago will disrupt the symbiotic relationship described between dealers and collectors that helps a show survive. I think the ANA made a bad decision with OKC in their attempt to attract collectors to a show where a significant number of dealers and collectors won't attend.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I ran and helped run a successful regional show back in the day. Wayne’s analysis is excellent, spot on.