@bgr said:
You are correct, but you’re also being a bit of a jerk. You overplay your hand when you assert that OPS+ is “dead on balls accurate”. Along with your attitude of superiority you fail to hold yourself accountable enough in victory to win a debate. Sad trombone.
Jeez Louise, "dead on balls accurate" is a play on a quote from My Cousin Vinny...and I'm just having some sports talk fun with it. I don't have a hand I'm playing and I'm not trying to score debate points. Just using some fun sports talk banter to dispel a ridiculous claim using the exact information that he was trying to cite, lol. So I guess if I said, "Lighten up Frances," you would get even more in a tizzy?
@bgr said:
You are correct, but you’re also being a bit of a jerk. You overplay your hand when you assert that OPS+ is “dead on balls accurate”. Along with your attitude of superiority you fail to hold yourself accountable enough in victory to win a debate. Sad trombone.
Jeez Louise, "dead on balls accurate" is a play on a quote from My Cousin Vinny...and I'm just having some sports talk fun with it. I don't have a hand I'm playing and I'm not trying to score debate points. Just using some fun sports talk banter to dispel a ridiculous claim using the exact information that he was trying to cite, lol. So I guess if I said, "Lighten up Frances," you would get even more in a tizzy?
I would need another spritzer at the very least.
I do want to point out that what @Basebal21 was saying about SF and SD being tougher parks for RH hitters has merit. The problem is he selected two of the toughest parks and tried to make a definitive claim and ONLY applied it to Judge. Heck, if you pick the two toughest parks for Ohtani, or anyone, that would do the same thing.
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
I pointed out earlier in that 'generic' chart that Ohtani would lose several home runs in Yankee stadium in deep left, center, and deep right. He would gain some, but less than he lost.
Just by eye balling that chart that wasn't hard to see. The actual batted ball data is far more specific and it gives him 33 in Yankee stadium.
It was a pointless exercise arguing it to begin with. The numbers don't change enough to bother.
So in the end, yes absolutely those OPS+ are 'dead on balls accurate' for THEM. I know that historically that OPS+ could have some bigger variances on players, but usually those are extreme cases, and other than that it is such a small variance that it is hardly worth making an entire thread deciphering that tiny variance that might mean a half a home run in a year(and that home run is a double instead), so instead of a 223 OPS+ it is really 221 or 224. So unless the other player is at 221 or 225 there is no point.
@bgr is that response more what you were looking to hear from me? I can do that, but it takes a lot of time and just isn't as fun.
So there you go. Lay Judge's home runs over every park in MLB and he still hits the more home runs than anyone. Ohtani does well there too.
League leaders in "Mostly Gone" which are home runs in 8-29 of the parks
Ozuna 26
Judge 23
Semien 23
Westburg 22
Then a bunch of guys
Ohtani 13 way down on the list at 51st in the league.
There ya go again. Judge is second in MLB with mostly home runs and Ohtani is way down the list. Get outta here.
So yeah, that notion of laying his home runs over every park? Doesn't matter, it shows Judge is tops in the league in HR.
The kicker is Judge is the best HR hitter in MLB but he is also hitting .333 to boot with a .466 OB%, while leading the league in Intentional Walks
Judge is by far the best hitter in MLB right now.
No doubters in any park ignoring park factors, Judge has one more and guess whose third on that list Soto his teammate.
What you would actually have to do is lay out the charts for every park the ball was hit in. Then the comparison would be do we switch the Boston ones with Colorado, do we switch the Tampa ones with SF, do with switch the Toronto ones with SD or Arizona etc. At that point then the park factor discussions have to come into play. On any given day SD and SF are a nightmare depending what the marine layer does not to mention theyre already the two hardest parks for a lefty to hit in.
Judge hits between Soto and Stanton. Theres two Dodgers with more than 17 home runs Othani and Tesocar, Freemans power is down and Mookie missed 6 weeks. Othani hits leadoff now. Mookie even sort of complained about it where what Othani wants he gets.
Stanton has 20, Stoto has 34. Chisholm hit 7 in 14 games before getting hurt. giving him 20 on the year.
Yankee stadium is very favorable as are most of the AL east stadiums to lefties. The NL west is the worst division park wise for a lefty. Othani is also 35 for 39 stealing bases. Judge hasnt been thrown out but he has 6 stolen bases. Othani is about to put up a 40 40 season is he stays healthy and a 50 50 isnt entirely out of the question.
As I said its not a knock on Judge but what Othani is doing is more special and OPS+ has flaws. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez has an OPS+ of 162 despite hitting in Petco before the fences were moved in a little and the rest of his team not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag
So there you go. Lay Judge's home runs over every park in MLB and he still hits the more home runs than anyone. Ohtani does well there too.
League leaders in "Mostly Gone" which are home runs in 8-29 of the parks
Ozuna 26
Judge 23
Semien 23
Westburg 22
Then a bunch of guys
Ohtani 13 way down on the list at 51st in the league.
There ya go again. Judge is second in MLB with mostly home runs and Ohtani is way down the list. Get outta here.
So yeah, that notion of laying his home runs over every park? Doesn't matter, it shows Judge is tops in the league in HR.
The kicker is Judge is the best HR hitter in MLB but he is also hitting .333 to boot with a .466 OB%, while leading the league in Intentional Walks
Judge is by far the best hitter in MLB right now.
No doubters in any park ignoring park factors, Judge has one more and guess whose third on that list Soto his teammate.
What you would actually have to do is lay out the charts for every park the ball was hit in. Then the comparison would be do we switch the Boston ones with Colorado, do we switch the Tampa ones with SF, do with switch the Toronto ones with SD or Arizona etc. At that point then the park factor discussions have to come into play. On any given day SD and SF are a nightmare depending what the marine layer does not to mention theyre already the two hardest parks for a lefty to hit in.
Judge hits between Soto and Stanton. Theres two Dodgers with more than 17 home runs Othani and Tesocar, Freemans power is down and Mookie missed 6 weeks. Othani hits leadoff now. Mookie even sort of complained about it where what Othani wants he gets.
Stanton has 20, Stoto has 34. Chisholm hit 7 in 14 games before getting hurt. giving him 20 on the year.
Yankee stadium is very favorable as are most of the AL east stadiums to lefties. The NL west is the worst division park wise for a lefty. Othani is also 35 for 39 stealing bases. Judge hasnt been thrown out but he has 6 stolen bases. Othani is about to put up a 40 40 season is he stays healthy and a 50 50 isnt entirely out of the question.
As I said its not a knock on Judge but what Othani is doing is more special and OPS+ has flaws. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez has an OPS+ of 162 despite hitting in Petco before the fences were moved in a little and the rest of his team not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag
So this is the point where I ask if this is really "Baghdad Bob" making these posts. Good grief. Again...
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
Here is "Baghdad Bob". When I read @Basebal21 in this thread, it simply reminds me of Baghdad Bob. He was the Iraqi minister for information during war with US. His real name was "Al-sahhaf"
"They call it the “Al-Sahhaf show.”
As Saddam Hussein’s regime crumbles, the Iraqi minister of information is fighting a one-man war of words.
And the deeper U.S. troops penetrate into the heart of Iraq, the wilder Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf’s claims have become.
“They will be burnt. We are going to tackle them,” was Al-Sahhaf’s latest offering yesterday – though he was forced to give his press conference on the street because his office in the Ministry of Information has been destroyed.
When U.S. troops wandered through Saddam’s presidential complex just a few paces from the site of his press briefing Monday, Al-Sahhaf said: “There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad” – a shocking statement that blithely ignored the black clouds of smoke wafting over the capital.
And when the Palestine Hotel came under U.S. tank fire yesterday, forcing even Al-Sahhaf to admit that coalition forces were in the capital (which he flatly denied the day before) – he bizarrely insisted it was all part of Iraq’s grand war plan.
“We blocked them inside the city. Their rear is blocked,” he said with his characteristic smile."
So there you go. Lay Judge's home runs over every park in MLB and he still hits the more home runs than anyone. Ohtani does well there too.
League leaders in "Mostly Gone" which are home runs in 8-29 of the parks
Ozuna 26
Judge 23
Semien 23
Westburg 22
Then a bunch of guys
Ohtani 13 way down on the list at 51st in the league.
There ya go again. Judge is second in MLB with mostly home runs and Ohtani is way down the list. Get outta here.
So yeah, that notion of laying his home runs over every park? Doesn't matter, it shows Judge is tops in the league in HR.
The kicker is Judge is the best HR hitter in MLB but he is also hitting .333 to boot with a .466 OB%, while leading the league in Intentional Walks
Judge is by far the best hitter in MLB right now.
No doubters in any park ignoring park factors, Judge has one more and guess whose third on that list Soto his teammate.
What you would actually have to do is lay out the charts for every park the ball was hit in. Then the comparison would be do we switch the Boston ones with Colorado, do we switch the Tampa ones with SF, do with switch the Toronto ones with SD or Arizona etc. At that point then the park factor discussions have to come into play. On any given day SD and SF are a nightmare depending what the marine layer does not to mention theyre already the two hardest parks for a lefty to hit in.
Judge hits between Soto and Stanton. Theres two Dodgers with more than 17 home runs Othani and Tesocar, Freemans power is down and Mookie missed 6 weeks. Othani hits leadoff now. Mookie even sort of complained about it where what Othani wants he gets.
Stanton has 20, Stoto has 34. Chisholm hit 7 in 14 games before getting hurt. giving him 20 on the year.
Yankee stadium is very favorable as are most of the AL east stadiums to lefties. The NL west is the worst division park wise for a lefty. Othani is also 35 for 39 stealing bases. Judge hasnt been thrown out but he has 6 stolen bases. Othani is about to put up a 40 40 season is he stays healthy and a 50 50 isnt entirely out of the question.
As I said its not a knock on Judge but what Othani is doing is more special and OPS+ has flaws. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez has an OPS+ of 162 despite hitting in Petco before the fences were moved in a little and the rest of his team not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag
So this is the point where I ask if this is really "Baghdad Bob" making these posts. Good grief. Again...
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
@basebal21 have at it. I'm going to search for the Loch Ness for the rest of the day.
I appreciate your research. Not sure what I need to apologize for but here it comes… “I’m sorry”.
I want you to get Basebal21 to admit he was wrong. It’s a pure sport. I don’t think it can be done but I hold out hope. And I stand by my assertions that Judge is a better hitter than Ohtani and that you are correct in your debate with Basebal21.
Past that. Suns out, pool is perfect, queen is playing on the patio. Enjoy your hunt for Nessie.
I guess were just going to ignore Othanis 35 stolen bases compared to Judges 6 or that their career numbers are basically the same despite Othani spending his first 6 years on terrible Angels teams
When someone can actually make an argument about why Adrian Golzalez had such a low OPS+ compared to what he did in 2009 then maybe I will believe that OPS+ is a;ways right. Until then theres clearly a flaw in the programing of it
Either way Othani already has a 30 30 season and is very close to a 40 40 despite only being a couple homeruns behind Judge
So @Basebal21 you just keep harping on SF and SD how it hurts Ohtani so much because of the 'marine layer', and claims it wipes away the monumental lead Judge has over Ohtani.
I'm not sure if you realize, but do you realize that Ohtani has only played in 10 games @SF and @SD this year? That Judge has played in six there? That Ohtani has two home runs in those games and Judge 5? lol.
Oh, and their batted balls WERE mapped out and overlayed onto each park like you wanted:
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
When their batted balls are mapped out over EVERY park, Judge has an average of 43 home runs. Ohtani just 35
Basebal21, "Are you sure about those five minutes?"
RUN Expectancy Runs above average
Judge 73.7
Ohtani 41.2
The run expectancy has the stolen base value in there already which of course helps Ohtani get close, but...
If you are wondering why the Run Expectancy between them is even a wider gap than the OPS+ it is because of the vast disparity between them in their hitting with Runners in Scoring Position:
Ohtani In 138 plate appearances with RISP has a slash line of .223/.341/.330 for a .671 OPS
Judge in 140 plate apperances with RISP has a slash line of .337/.507/.713 for a 1.220 OPS
Now I know in the past how much you have relied on RISP hitteing in other player evaluations, so I sure hope you put the same emphasis on it here.
Judge is playing CF and Ohtani is a DH.
Mapping it out over every park doesn't change it(as shown above).
I really appreciated those explanations. You would think this is the point where Basebal21 would reevaluate his position… but… expect a new pivot. Like sands through the hourglass, these are the days of our lives.
Thats still not an answer to Adrians 2009 season and why his OPS+ was so low. I know the answer is because the stat has flaws as do all of the advanced stats. There isnt a defense for it other than to admit the stat isnt perfect which is why it always gets ignored when I ask it
I will also ask again why are Othanis 35 steals being ignored
I get that some people just want everything done by advanced stats which is the major difference but in that case whats the point in even playing. Just punch it into a computer and simulate the season
Judge has DHed 35 games and Grisham has played basically as many games in CF as Judge has. They make changes and move Judge to RF, LF, or DH whenever they can. Hes not a CFer and is just there because Stanton is such a disaster in the OF and Soto isnt far behind. Theres only one DH spot
RUN Expectancy Runs above average
Judge 73.7
Ohtani 41.2
The run expectancy has the stolen base value in there already which of course helps Ohtani get close, but...
If you are wondering why the Run Expectancy between them is even a wider gap than the OPS+ it is because of the vast disparity between them in their hitting with Runners in Scoring Position:
Ohtani In 138 plate appearances with RISP has a slash line of .223/.341/.330 for a .671 OPS
Judge in 140 plate apperances with RISP has a slash line of .337/.507/.713 for a 1.220 OPS
Now I know in the past how much you have relied on RISP hitteing in other player evaluations, so I sure hope you put the same emphasis on it here.
Judge is playing CF and Ohtani is a DH.
Mapping it out over every park doesn't change it(as shown above).
Witt with risp is .396/.460/.762 with ops of 1.200 so he blows away ohtani in that category also.
You mentioned his OPS+. To expand on what you said - his 224 this year would be the second-highest (Ted Williams - 233 in 1957) in the integration era other than Barry Bonds.
@Basebal21 said:
Thats still not an answer to Adrians 2009 season and why his OPS+ was so low. I know the answer is because the stat has flaws as do all of the advanced stats. There isnt a defense for it other than to admit the stat isnt perfect which is why it always gets ignored when I ask it
I will also ask again why are Othanis 35 steals being ignored
I get that some people just want everything done by advanced stats which is the major difference but in that case whats the point in even playing. Just punch it into a computer and simulate the season
Judge has DHed 35 games and Grisham has played basically as many games in CF as Judge has. They make changes and move Judge to RF, LF, or DH whenever they can. Hes not a CFer and is just there because Stanton is such a disaster in the OF and Soto isnt far behind. Theres only one DH spot
Another Baghdad Bob post?
First, these stats aren't that advanced. They are common sense.
Though I will give you that Run Expectancy is advanced...and certainly more accurate than your strange biased perspective you sprinkle in there.
Second, YOU asked for the advanced stats of overlaying the batted balls onto each park and you look even more foolish as a result when they showed you were wrong.
Again, you were wrong. Suck it up and admit it.
Ohtani's steals are not ignored. The value are included in the Run Expectancy. Is that too hard to see for some reason?
PS, there is no way I would even begin to talk about Adrian Gonzalez OPS+ and explain that to you...which really isn't that hard to see with any sense of baseball smarts and a sprinkle of logic. I will leave that to you to ponder.
Also, why are you now ignoring the RISP hititng in which Ohtani has been absymal this year? You and others have lived and died by the measure before and even postulated opinions based on 30 at bats in those situations, but somehow you just now brush it aside? lol. That is a pure Baghdad Bob tactic.
@bgr said:
It's like watching chess being played... by SHARKS!
Its the marine layer. It only affects left handed hitters in SD and SF and it is only present in the four extra games Ohtani has played there over Judge...that is why Ohtani's 175 OPS+ is more impressive than Judge's 221. At least that is what I have been told.
It’s kind of pointless to debate the marine layer. It hurts during the day and helps… tremendously… at night. In the morning the cooler ocean air sinks and is forced down by the warm summer sun heating the atmosphere. That of course causes an increase in air density where baseball is played on those west coast parks. This increase in air density causes additional drag on the baseball. However. Anaheim is the one west coast stadium which actually trends above league average (by a full standard deviation) when comparing average distance of fly balls. The good news is that we can just focus on OPS+ which takes this information into account based on outcomes measured from all parks. This is why a player who is injured at the end of a season can have their OPS+ change even when they’re not playing. I wish you both luck in winning this enthralling debate, but no matter how it ends Judge is a better hitter than Ohtani. I would point at how Judge has adjusted his swing since he entered the league to handle the low strike.
I will end with the fact that the marine layer was brought up as a reason why their OPS+ shouldn't be taken at face value, but yet somehow the fact that they are so vastly different with RISP is just ignored...
Ohtani In 138 plate appearances with RISP has a slash line of .223/.341/.330 for a .671 OPS
Judge in 140 plate apperances with RISP has a slash line of .337/.507/.713 for a 1.220 OPS
...it is even more surprising it is ignored since this poster(and others) uses that as a central theme to define value(rightfully so), I'm just surprised it is completely ignored in this theme where it really should be used to show how their OPS+ really are not quite exactly what they show.
Run Expectancy does incorporate their men on hitting and all else too....including SB! Yes, including the SB.
Run Expectancy
Judge 73 runs above average
Ohtani 43.2
30 run difference for one season is big.
Then add the Defense
Judge CF for 656 innings, DH for 35 games, handful of innings in Lf and RF
Ohtani DH only a DH
Yet somehow playing 10 games in SF and SD for Ohtani, and Judge only six games there, makes Ohtani's season "more impressive."
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
No. I did not do that. I pointed out that the OPS+ was entirely reasonable. That you got such an incredibly bad read on it kind of stunned me for a second. Then I remembered who I was talking to. The take-away should be. Wow. Why does Gonzalez have such a high OPS+ when his stats rival those of Ryan Braun’s third best season - but not quite because Braun was better. Well it’s because OPS+ takes into consideration other factors. Not sure how you got upside down there but this won’t go anywhere. You are hopeless.
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
No. I did not do that. I pointed out that the OPS+ was entirely reasonable. That you got such an incredibly bad read on it kind of stunned me for a second. Then I remembered who I was talking to. The take-away should be. Wow. Why does Gonzalez have such a high OPS+ when his stats rival those of Ryan Braun’s third best season - but not quite because Braun was better. Well it’s because OPS+ takes into consideration other factors. Not sure how you got upside down there but this won’t go anywhere. You are hopeless.
Your words
"It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team"
That would mean the stat is worthless other than a counting stat.
Gonzalez was punished for lack of RBIs and Runs scored. If you dont understand the value of what a player does on a team stats cant even really be talked about
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
No. I did not do that. I pointed out that the OPS+ was entirely reasonable. That you got such an incredibly bad read on it kind of stunned me for a second. Then I remembered who I was talking to. The take-away should be. Wow. Why does Gonzalez have such a high OPS+ when his stats rival those of Ryan Braun’s third best season - but not quite because Braun was better. Well it’s because OPS+ takes into consideration other factors. Not sure how you got upside down there but this won’t go anywhere. You are hopeless.
Your words
"It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team"
That would mean the stat is worthless other than a counting stat.
Gonzalez was punished for lack of RBIs and Runs scored. If you dont understand the value of what a player does on a team stats cant even really be talked about
My words taken out of context. MVP is the award which considers a players value to their team. OPS+ does not. It also doesn’t care about RBIs or Runs Scored.
Be aware that OPS+ is a relative scale as well. A player could have the same OPS+ two years in a row with 30% less offensive production in one of those years. 62% above the mean is likely more than he deserved and if you look at his wRC+ it provides another perspective. Using a relative scale to the league normalized around 100 allows for more interesting comparisons which otherwise wouldn’t make sense.
Ironically you invoked Gonzalez so distract from being wrong about your Ohtani assessment only to promote an easily disproven assertion about how OPS+ is calculated. Google next time or find an adult to help.
@Basebal21 said:
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
No. I did not do that. I pointed out that the OPS+ was entirely reasonable. That you got such an incredibly bad read on it kind of stunned me for a second. Then I remembered who I was talking to. The take-away should be. Wow. Why does Gonzalez have such a high OPS+ when his stats rival those of Ryan Braun’s third best season - but not quite because Braun was better. Well it’s because OPS+ takes into consideration other factors. Not sure how you got upside down there but this won’t go anywhere. You are hopeless.
Your words
"It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team"
That would mean the stat is worthless other than a counting stat.
Gonzalez was punished for lack of RBIs and Runs scored. If you dont understand the value of what a player does on a team stats cant even really be talked about
My words taken out of context. MVP is the award which considers a players value to their team. OPS+ does not. It also doesn’t care about RBIs or Runs Scored.
Be aware that OPS+ is a relative scale as well. A player could have the same OPS+ two years in a row with 30% less offensive production in one of those years. 62% above the mean is likely more than he deserved and if you look at his wRC+ it provides another perspective. Using a relative scale to the league normalized around 100 allows for more interesting comparisons which otherwise wouldn’t make sense.
Ironically you invoked Gonzalez so distract from being wrong about your Ohtani assessment only to promote an easily disproven assertion about how OPS+ is calculated. Google next time or find an adult to help.
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
MVP has been wrong many years because voters will only vote for a player on a playoff team
Arguing that what a player does for a team doesnt matter just proves that advanced have flaws, which they do
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
That’s why his OPS+ is higher relative to his wRC+. Because OPS+ considers OBP equal as Slugging. So his walks are slugs. Many OPS+ deniers point to this as a major flaw and many of those people prefer wRC+ for this reason.
For a great player on a bad team OPS+ seems like the better measure than wRC+ for the reason you promote.
Regardless. None of this speaks to Ohtani vs Judge and I hope this distraction can go into the trash pile it belongs in.
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
That’s why his OPS+ is higher relative to his wRC+. Because OPS+ considers OBP equal as Slugging. So his walks are slugs. Many OPS+ deniers point to this as a major flaw and many of those people prefer wRC+ for this reason.
For a great player on a bad team OPS+ seems like the better measure than wRC+ for the reason you promote.
Regardless. None of this speaks to Ohtani vs Judge and I hope this distraction can go into the trash pile it belongs in.
It simply comes down to do people think an algorithm accounts for everything or not. It doesnt but many people that do will never admit the flaws in the stats which are supposed to just be a starting point not the end point
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
That’s why his OPS+ is higher relative to his wRC+. Because OPS+ considers OBP equal as Slugging. So his walks are slugs. Many OPS+ deniers point to this as a major flaw and many of those people prefer wRC+ for this reason.
For a great player on a bad team OPS+ seems like the better measure than wRC+ for the reason you promote.
Regardless. None of this speaks to Ohtani vs Judge and I hope this distraction can go into the trash pile it belongs in.
It simply comes down to do people think an algorithm accounts for everything or not. It doesnt but many people that do will never admit the flaws in the stats which are supposed to just be a starting point not the end point
That statistics and the algorithms which produce them are just insights that we can use to interpret and understand things. Consider them hints. I’m not relying on OPS+ to tell me Judge is the most dangerous hitter since Barry Bonds - I have eyes. But the OPS+ and wRC+ and OPS and SLG and RBIs… they all agree. Regardless of Adrian Gonzalez. And there is a big difference between referencing a statistic to support an argument and ignoring reason because a statistic isn’t perfect.
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
That’s why his OPS+ is higher relative to his wRC+. Because OPS+ considers OBP equal as Slugging. So his walks are slugs. Many OPS+ deniers point to this as a major flaw and many of those people prefer wRC+ for this reason.
For a great player on a bad team OPS+ seems like the better measure than wRC+ for the reason you promote.
Regardless. None of this speaks to Ohtani vs Judge and I hope this distraction can go into the trash pile it belongs in.
It simply comes down to do people think an algorithm accounts for everything or not. It doesnt but many people that do will never admit the flaws in the stats which are supposed to just be a starting point not the end point
That statistics and the algorithms which produce them are just insights that we can use to interpret and understand things. Consider them hints. I’m not relying on OPS+ to tell me Judge is the most dangerous hitter since Barry Bonds - I have eyes. But the OPS+ and wRC+ and OPS and SLG and RBIs… they all agree. Regardless of Adrian Gonzalez. And there is a big difference between referencing a statistic to support an argument and ignoring reason because a statistic isn’t perfect.
Never said that the stats should be completely ignored, just that they are a starting point and that none of that accurately account for parks and lineups.
Using the three Gonzalez never had to be pitched too. Even ignoring what a disaster Petco was for lefties that line up was a joke. Judge hits between Soto and Stanton and Stanton has even managed to stay healthy this year. You have to pitch to Judge, someone is likely on base and Stanton is waiting on deck.
As far as Othani and Judge, Judge has 30 doubles, 45 homeruns, and 6 SBs with 1 triple. Othani has 29 doubles, 6 triples, 39 home runs and 38 stolen bases. If you consider a stolen base a double which it should be considered Othani has more extra base hits and the difference in their total bases is the difference in their lineups.
Judge has accounted for 249 total bases on his own. Othani has accounted for 270 total bases on his own
He would have received a 9% advantage in his at bats at petco in 2009. At bats at coors were the furthest adjusted; down by 11%.
I’m not sure your data is right though because according to statcast right hand batters required an 11% adjustment up to the league mean.
Normalized stats really do take the parks into consideration though because they are specific to the performance of all players in that stadium. Gonzalez would have been hurting other players when he played on the road - assuming he was mashing there.
Anyways. Just to put this one through the hoop. If you include their walks in total bases Judge gets 35 more to reach 284 and surpass Ohtani by your latest metric, and your numbers. However I couldn’t make total sense of your math so I checked statmuse and it has Judge leading MlB with 322 total bases and Ohtani 3rd behind Witt with 301.
But sure. Ohtani is the best ever. Go dodgers. Meh
@bgr said:
He would have received a 9% advantage in his at bats at petco in 2009. At bats at coors were the furthest adjusted; down by 11%.
I’m not sure your data is right though because according to statcast right hand batters required an 11% adjustment up to the league mean.
Normalized stats really do take the parks into consideration though because they are specific to the performance of all players in that stadium. Gonzalez would have been hurting other players when he played on the road - assuming he was mashing there.
Anyways. Just to put this one through the hoop. If you include their walks in total bases Judge gets 35 more to reach 284 and surpass Ohtani by your latest metric, and your numbers. However I couldn’t make total sense of your math so I checked statmuse and it has Judge leading MlB with 322 total bases and Ohtani 3rd behind Witt with 301.
But sure. Ohtani is the best ever. Go dodgers. Meh
Othani has 68 walks 270 and 68 doesnt equal lower than 301
If you dont understand hitter total bases that dont depend on the team well
That needs to be understood before the rest an be talked about
@bgr said:
He would have received a 9% advantage in his at bats at petco in 2009. At bats at coors were the furthest adjusted; down by 11%.
I’m not sure your data is right though because according to statcast right hand batters required an 11% adjustment up to the league mean.
Normalized stats really do take the parks into consideration though because they are specific to the performance of all players in that stadium. Gonzalez would have been hurting other players when he played on the road - assuming he was mashing there.
Anyways. Just to put this one through the hoop. If you include their walks in total bases Judge gets 35 more to reach 284 and surpass Ohtani by your latest metric, and your numbers. However I couldn’t make total sense of your math so I checked statmuse and it has Judge leading MlB with 322 total bases and Ohtani 3rd behind Witt with 301.
But sure. Ohtani is the best ever. Go dodgers. Meh
Othani has 68 walks 270 and 68 doesnt equal lower than 301
If you dont understand hitter total bases that dont depend on the team well
That needs to be understood before the rest an be talked about
I’m not sure what your numbers are being derived from. I can look up total bases multiple places. I just said statmuse had Judge at 332 and Ohtani at 301. It’s hard for me to derive your special “hitter total bases” equation. Why don’t you just share it. Perhaps it will change how everyone looks at baseball.
@bgr said:
He would have received a 9% advantage in his at bats at petco in 2009. At bats at coors were the furthest adjusted; down by 11%.
I’m not sure your data is right though because according to statcast right hand batters required an 11% adjustment up to the league mean.
Normalized stats really do take the parks into consideration though because they are specific to the performance of all players in that stadium. Gonzalez would have been hurting other players when he played on the road - assuming he was mashing there.
Anyways. Just to put this one through the hoop. If you include their walks in total bases Judge gets 35 more to reach 284 and surpass Ohtani by your latest metric, and your numbers. However I couldn’t make total sense of your math so I checked statmuse and it has Judge leading MlB with 322 total bases and Ohtani 3rd behind Witt with 301.
But sure. Ohtani is the best ever. Go dodgers. Meh
Othani has 68 walks 270 and 68 doesnt equal lower than 301
If you dont understand hitter total bases that dont depend on the team well
That needs to be understood before the rest an be talked about
I’m not sure what your numbers are being derived from. I can look up total bases multiple places. I just said statmuse had Judge at 332 and Ohtani at 301. It’s hard for me to derive your special “hitter total bases” equation. Why don’t you just share it. Perhaps it will change how everyone looks at baseball.
Single = 1 base
Stolen base =1 base
Walk=1 base
Double =2 bases
Triple=3 bases
Homerun=4 bases
Comments
I would need another spritzer at the very least.
I do want to point out that what @Basebal21 was saying about SF and SD being tougher parks for RH hitters has merit. The problem is he selected two of the toughest parks and tried to make a definitive claim and ONLY applied it to Judge. Heck, if you pick the two toughest parks for Ohtani, or anyone, that would do the same thing.
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
I pointed out earlier in that 'generic' chart that Ohtani would lose several home runs in Yankee stadium in deep left, center, and deep right. He would gain some, but less than he lost.
Just by eye balling that chart that wasn't hard to see. The actual batted ball data is far more specific and it gives him 33 in Yankee stadium.
It was a pointless exercise arguing it to begin with. The numbers don't change enough to bother.
So in the end, yes absolutely those OPS+ are 'dead on balls accurate' for THEM. I know that historically that OPS+ could have some bigger variances on players, but usually those are extreme cases, and other than that it is such a small variance that it is hardly worth making an entire thread deciphering that tiny variance that might mean a half a home run in a year(and that home run is a double instead), so instead of a 223 OPS+ it is really 221 or 224. So unless the other player is at 221 or 225 there is no point.
@bgr is that response more what you were looking to hear from me? I can do that, but it takes a lot of time and just isn't as fun.
No doubters in any park ignoring park factors, Judge has one more and guess whose third on that list Soto his teammate.
What you would actually have to do is lay out the charts for every park the ball was hit in. Then the comparison would be do we switch the Boston ones with Colorado, do we switch the Tampa ones with SF, do with switch the Toronto ones with SD or Arizona etc. At that point then the park factor discussions have to come into play. On any given day SD and SF are a nightmare depending what the marine layer does not to mention theyre already the two hardest parks for a lefty to hit in.
Judge hits between Soto and Stanton. Theres two Dodgers with more than 17 home runs Othani and Tesocar, Freemans power is down and Mookie missed 6 weeks. Othani hits leadoff now. Mookie even sort of complained about it where what Othani wants he gets.
Stanton has 20, Stoto has 34. Chisholm hit 7 in 14 games before getting hurt. giving him 20 on the year.
Yankee stadium is very favorable as are most of the AL east stadiums to lefties. The NL west is the worst division park wise for a lefty. Othani is also 35 for 39 stealing bases. Judge hasnt been thrown out but he has 6 stolen bases. Othani is about to put up a 40 40 season is he stays healthy and a 50 50 isnt entirely out of the question.
As I said its not a knock on Judge but what Othani is doing is more special and OPS+ has flaws. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez has an OPS+ of 162 despite hitting in Petco before the fences were moved in a little and the rest of his team not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag
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So this is the point where I ask if this is really "Baghdad Bob" making these posts. Good grief. Again...
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
@bgr you owe me an apoloy
@basebal21 have at it. I'm going to search for the Loch Ness for the rest of the day.
Here is "Baghdad Bob". When I read @Basebal21 in this thread, it simply reminds me of Baghdad Bob. He was the Iraqi minister for information during war with US. His real name was "Al-sahhaf"
"They call it the “Al-Sahhaf show.”
As Saddam Hussein’s regime crumbles, the Iraqi minister of information is fighting a one-man war of words.
And the deeper U.S. troops penetrate into the heart of Iraq, the wilder Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf’s claims have become.
“They will be burnt. We are going to tackle them,” was Al-Sahhaf’s latest offering yesterday – though he was forced to give his press conference on the street because his office in the Ministry of Information has been destroyed.
When U.S. troops wandered through Saddam’s presidential complex just a few paces from the site of his press briefing Monday, Al-Sahhaf said: “There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad” – a shocking statement that blithely ignored the black clouds of smoke wafting over the capital.
And when the Palestine Hotel came under U.S. tank fire yesterday, forcing even Al-Sahhaf to admit that coalition forces were in the capital (which he flatly denied the day before) – he bizarrely insisted it was all part of Iraq’s grand war plan.
“We blocked them inside the city. Their rear is blocked,” he said with his characteristic smile."
I appreciate your research. Not sure what I need to apologize for but here it comes… “I’m sorry”.
I want you to get Basebal21 to admit he was wrong. It’s a pure sport. I don’t think it can be done but I hold out hope. And I stand by my assertions that Judge is a better hitter than Ohtani and that you are correct in your debate with Basebal21.
Past that. Suns out, pool is perfect, queen is playing on the patio. Enjoy your hunt for Nessie.
I guess were just going to ignore Othanis 35 stolen bases compared to Judges 6 or that their career numbers are basically the same despite Othani spending his first 6 years on terrible Angels teams
When someone can actually make an argument about why Adrian Golzalez had such a low OPS+ compared to what he did in 2009 then maybe I will believe that OPS+ is a;ways right. Until then theres clearly a flaw in the programing of it
Either way Othani already has a 30 30 season and is very close to a 40 40 despite only being a couple homeruns behind Judge
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So @Basebal21 you just keep harping on SF and SD how it hurts Ohtani so much because of the 'marine layer', and claims it wipes away the monumental lead Judge has over Ohtani.
I'm not sure if you realize, but do you realize that Ohtani has only played in 10 games @SF and @SD this year? That Judge has played in six there? That Ohtani has two home runs in those games and Judge 5? lol.
Oh, and their batted balls WERE mapped out and overlayed onto each park like you wanted:
The following numbers are based on the distance and trajectory of the batted balls that Judge has hit this year, and in puts them relation to the distance and height of the walls at each of the 30 MLB parks. So if you just wanted to put Judge in the NL west parks, and that is all he got to hit into this year, here is where his batted balls would put his home run totals in each park:
Arizona 40 HR
Colorado 45 HR
Los Angeles 49 HR
San Diego 41 HR
Sf 41 HR
An average of 43.2 HR he would have hit playing only in those NL west parks. He has 44 Home Runs now. He actually did play three games in Sf and three in SD and he hit a total of five home runs in those six games there.
Now I know many would use the fact that he hit five home runs in six games in SF and SD and use that as checkmate, but I won't do that because the sample is too small.
Here is what Shoehi's batted balls this year would give him hitting only in the AL East parks.
Bal 36
Bos 36
NY 33
TB 33
Tor 38
An average of 35.2. Ohtania has 37 actual home runs. So you see that Ohtani's actual batted balls this year he would have 33 home runs in Yankee stadium...not what is being said in this thread.
When their batted balls are mapped out over EVERY park, Judge has an average of 43 home runs. Ohtani just 35
Basebal21, "Are you sure about those five minutes?"
@Basebal21
OPS+
Judge 223
Ohtani 173
RUN Expectancy Runs above average
Judge 73.7
Ohtani 41.2
The run expectancy has the stolen base value in there already which of course helps Ohtani get close, but...
If you are wondering why the Run Expectancy between them is even a wider gap than the OPS+ it is because of the vast disparity between them in their hitting with Runners in Scoring Position:
Ohtani In 138 plate appearances with RISP has a slash line of .223/.341/.330 for a .671 OPS
Judge in 140 plate apperances with RISP has a slash line of .337/.507/.713 for a 1.220 OPS
Now I know in the past how much you have relied on RISP hitteing in other player evaluations, so I sure hope you put the same emphasis on it here.
Judge is playing CF and Ohtani is a DH.
Mapping it out over every park doesn't change it(as shown above).
I really appreciated those explanations. You would think this is the point where Basebal21 would reevaluate his position… but… expect a new pivot. Like sands through the hourglass, these are the days of our lives.
Thats still not an answer to Adrians 2009 season and why his OPS+ was so low. I know the answer is because the stat has flaws as do all of the advanced stats. There isnt a defense for it other than to admit the stat isnt perfect which is why it always gets ignored when I ask it
I will also ask again why are Othanis 35 steals being ignored
I get that some people just want everything done by advanced stats which is the major difference but in that case whats the point in even playing. Just punch it into a computer and simulate the season
Judge has DHed 35 games and Grisham has played basically as many games in CF as Judge has. They make changes and move Judge to RF, LF, or DH whenever they can. Hes not a CFer and is just there because Stanton is such a disaster in the OF and Soto isnt far behind. Theres only one DH spot
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Poetry
37 Steals now for Othani and 38 homeuns
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Witt with risp is .396/.460/.762 with ops of 1.200 so he blows away ohtani in that category also.
You mentioned his OPS+. To expand on what you said - his 224 this year would be the second-highest (Ted Williams - 233 in 1957) in the integration era other than Barry Bonds.
Witt should end up a 30 30 guy and 40 40 isnt out of the question. Hes had an insane month that isnt sustainable but certainly a very talented player
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Another Baghdad Bob post?
First, these stats aren't that advanced. They are common sense.
Though I will give you that Run Expectancy is advanced...and certainly more accurate than your strange biased perspective you sprinkle in there.
Second, YOU asked for the advanced stats of overlaying the batted balls onto each park and you look even more foolish as a result when they showed you were wrong.
Again, you were wrong. Suck it up and admit it.
Ohtani's steals are not ignored. The value are included in the Run Expectancy. Is that too hard to see for some reason?
PS, there is no way I would even begin to talk about Adrian Gonzalez OPS+ and explain that to you...which really isn't that hard to see with any sense of baseball smarts and a sprinkle of logic. I will leave that to you to ponder.
Also, why are you now ignoring the RISP hititng in which Ohtani has been absymal this year? You and others have lived and died by the measure before and even postulated opinions based on 30 at bats in those situations, but somehow you just now brush it aside? lol. That is a pure Baghdad Bob tactic.
It's like watching chess being played... by SHARKS!
Its the marine layer. It only affects left handed hitters in SD and SF and it is only present in the four extra games Ohtani has played there over Judge...that is why Ohtani's 175 OPS+ is more impressive than Judge's 221. At least that is what I have been told.
It’s kind of pointless to debate the marine layer. It hurts during the day and helps… tremendously… at night. In the morning the cooler ocean air sinks and is forced down by the warm summer sun heating the atmosphere. That of course causes an increase in air density where baseball is played on those west coast parks. This increase in air density causes additional drag on the baseball. However. Anaheim is the one west coast stadium which actually trends above league average (by a full standard deviation) when comparing average distance of fly balls. The good news is that we can just focus on OPS+ which takes this information into account based on outcomes measured from all parks. This is why a player who is injured at the end of a season can have their OPS+ change even when they’re not playing. I wish you both luck in winning this enthralling debate, but no matter how it ends Judge is a better hitter than Ohtani. I would point at how Judge has adjusted his swing since he entered the league to handle the low strike.
@bgr well said.
I will end with the fact that the marine layer was brought up as a reason why their OPS+ shouldn't be taken at face value, but yet somehow the fact that they are so vastly different with RISP is just ignored...
Ohtani In 138 plate appearances with RISP has a slash line of .223/.341/.330 for a .671 OPS
Judge in 140 plate apperances with RISP has a slash line of .337/.507/.713 for a 1.220 OPS
...it is even more surprising it is ignored since this poster(and others) uses that as a central theme to define value(rightfully so), I'm just surprised it is completely ignored in this theme where it really should be used to show how their OPS+ really are not quite exactly what they show.
Run Expectancy does incorporate their men on hitting and all else too....including SB! Yes, including the SB.
Run Expectancy
Judge 73 runs above average
Ohtani 43.2
30 run difference for one season is big.
Then add the Defense
Judge CF for 656 innings, DH for 35 games, handful of innings in Lf and RF
Ohtani DH only a DH
Yet somehow playing 10 games in SF and SD for Ohtani, and Judge only six games there, makes Ohtani's season "more impressive."
Still waiting for the 2009 Adrian Gonzalez explanation if OPS+ is so perfect
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lol
It’s not perfect. Very few things are. But why does this matter?
Are you asking why a flaw in an advanced stat doesnt matter?
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You’re saying there’s a flaw based on conjecture and then saying other people have to disprove your conjecture.
That’s not how it works and you should have to sit in the corner.
Im saying theres a flaw based on facts. 2009 Adrian Gonzalez is the poster child of the flaw in the stat which non one will even attempt to address
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Why do you think it’s wrong though? Are you saying his offensive production wasn’t 62% above league average? I may have missed what you’re saying the flaw is. OPS+ is just an algorithm that provides insight into a players offensive production normalized by factors affecting all players in the league. This is an attempt to allow us to discuss players comparatively, even across eras.
I want to make sure you’re aware that OPS+ 100 changes season to season based on the league average. Meaning if the league average goes up 20% between two seasons and a particular player has the exact same stats… their OPS+ would be 20% lower the year the league average is 20% higher.
Petco in 2009 was a disaster for left handed hitters, He was also responsible for about 25-30 percent of his teams total offense that lineup was so bad. He was definitely more than 62 percent better than league average. The closest player to him was Kouz and he wasnt really close, Adrian hit 40 of the 141 homeruns the team hit. Headly was kinda okay everyone else was trash offensively. His OPS+ should have been in the 200s for what he did in that park with that lineup
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I’m not sure I follow your logic here. His OPS+ in 2009 was 162; .958 OPS, .551 SLG, .407 OBP, and BA of .277. When I look at Pujols in 2009, his OPS+ was a league leading 189, with a 1.101, .658 SLG, .443 OBP, and .327 BA.
189 - 162 = 27.
27 / 189 = ~14%
So it says Pujols, who was the best offensive producer in MLB in 2009, was 4 percent better than Gonzalez who was 62% better than league average.
This doesn’t stick out as obviously erroneous to me. What makes it look bad to you?
You really just made the argument for what I have been saying. There is no argument that Petco was the worst park by far for a lefty, the fences werent moved in yet. The Padres might as well have had 6 pitchers hitting in their lineup robbing RBI and scoring runs which were held against him.
If the stat actually correctly adjusted for the parks and lineups no one was more important to their team offensively than Adrian was that year. Padres slugged .381 as a team and that included his .551. Kouzmanoff was the only one full time starter to slug over 400 and he was by no means great that year
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It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team. I think we’re done here. You’re just….
You literally just pointed out all the flaws in the stat and stated that a player can be better and have a lower OPS+
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No. I did not do that. I pointed out that the OPS+ was entirely reasonable. That you got such an incredibly bad read on it kind of stunned me for a second. Then I remembered who I was talking to. The take-away should be. Wow. Why does Gonzalez have such a high OPS+ when his stats rival those of Ryan Braun’s third best season - but not quite because Braun was better. Well it’s because OPS+ takes into consideration other factors. Not sure how you got upside down there but this won’t go anywhere. You are hopeless.
Your words
"It doesn’t have anything to do with value to a particular team"
That would mean the stat is worthless other than a counting stat.
Gonzalez was punished for lack of RBIs and Runs scored. If you dont understand the value of what a player does on a team stats cant even really be talked about
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My words taken out of context. MVP is the award which considers a players value to their team. OPS+ does not. It also doesn’t care about RBIs or Runs Scored.
Be aware that OPS+ is a relative scale as well. A player could have the same OPS+ two years in a row with 30% less offensive production in one of those years. 62% above the mean is likely more than he deserved and if you look at his wRC+ it provides another perspective. Using a relative scale to the league normalized around 100 allows for more interesting comparisons which otherwise wouldn’t make sense.
Ironically you invoked Gonzalez so distract from being wrong about your Ohtani assessment only to promote an easily disproven assertion about how OPS+ is calculated. Google next time or find an adult to help.
OPS+ absolutely cares about RBIs, Runs scored, total bases etc. If you dont understand the stat thats okay
MVP has been wrong many years because voters will only vote for a player on a playoff team
Arguing that what a player does for a team doesnt matter just proves that advanced have flaws, which they do
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How does OPS+ care about runs and RBI? Here's the formula from Baseball Reference:
100*[OBP/lg OBP + SLG/lg SLG - 1]
Adjusted to the player’s ballpark(s)
Total bases obviously are factored into slugging so I'll agree there but runs and RBI are nowhere to be found in that formula.
This is the point you might think acceptance would occur but I’m honestly so excited for what comes next.
Some people don't let facts get in the way in a debate.
Basebal21 is never going to admit he’s wrong.
He’s simply not a very good know it all. 🤔
I should have explained it better for sure. Essentially its a reflection of the lineup someone is playing in which the stat doesnt account for. Gonzalez lead the league in walks which robbed him of the best chances to hit and its not because he was trying to draw a walk. Its obviously easier to hit in a dangerous lineup or guys on base when you have to be pitched too than it is when you come up with no one on and no one is scared of whats hitting behind you.
The park adjustment thing no stat really actually fully accounts for that. Petco ruined careers of left handed hitters during the time he played there. Brian Giles is the most notable. There was like 3 people that could hit the ball out of right center if it wasnt pulled right down the line with Ortiz, Dunn and Gonzalez. It was so bad they moved the fences in which is not properly accounted for in stats that say they account for parks. Theyre a good starting point just not the end all be all
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That’s why his OPS+ is higher relative to his wRC+. Because OPS+ considers OBP equal as Slugging. So his walks are slugs. Many OPS+ deniers point to this as a major flaw and many of those people prefer wRC+ for this reason.
For a great player on a bad team OPS+ seems like the better measure than wRC+ for the reason you promote.
Regardless. None of this speaks to Ohtani vs Judge and I hope this distraction can go into the trash pile it belongs in.
It simply comes down to do people think an algorithm accounts for everything or not. It doesnt but many people that do will never admit the flaws in the stats which are supposed to just be a starting point not the end point
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That statistics and the algorithms which produce them are just insights that we can use to interpret and understand things. Consider them hints. I’m not relying on OPS+ to tell me Judge is the most dangerous hitter since Barry Bonds - I have eyes. But the OPS+ and wRC+ and OPS and SLG and RBIs… they all agree. Regardless of Adrian Gonzalez. And there is a big difference between referencing a statistic to support an argument and ignoring reason because a statistic isn’t perfect.
Never said that the stats should be completely ignored, just that they are a starting point and that none of that accurately account for parks and lineups.
Using the three Gonzalez never had to be pitched too. Even ignoring what a disaster Petco was for lefties that line up was a joke. Judge hits between Soto and Stanton and Stanton has even managed to stay healthy this year. You have to pitch to Judge, someone is likely on base and Stanton is waiting on deck.
As far as Othani and Judge, Judge has 30 doubles, 45 homeruns, and 6 SBs with 1 triple. Othani has 29 doubles, 6 triples, 39 home runs and 38 stolen bases. If you consider a stolen base a double which it should be considered Othani has more extra base hits and the difference in their total bases is the difference in their lineups.
Judge has accounted for 249 total bases on his own. Othani has accounted for 270 total bases on his own
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
He would have received a 9% advantage in his at bats at petco in 2009. At bats at coors were the furthest adjusted; down by 11%.
I’m not sure your data is right though because according to statcast right hand batters required an 11% adjustment up to the league mean.
Normalized stats really do take the parks into consideration though because they are specific to the performance of all players in that stadium. Gonzalez would have been hurting other players when he played on the road - assuming he was mashing there.
Anyways. Just to put this one through the hoop. If you include their walks in total bases Judge gets 35 more to reach 284 and surpass Ohtani by your latest metric, and your numbers. However I couldn’t make total sense of your math so I checked statmuse and it has Judge leading MlB with 322 total bases and Ohtani 3rd behind Witt with 301.
But sure. Ohtani is the best ever. Go dodgers. Meh
Othani has 68 walks 270 and 68 doesnt equal lower than 301
If you dont understand hitter total bases that dont depend on the team well
That needs to be understood before the rest an be talked about
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
I’m not sure what your numbers are being derived from. I can look up total bases multiple places. I just said statmuse had Judge at 332 and Ohtani at 301. It’s hard for me to derive your special “hitter total bases” equation. Why don’t you just share it. Perhaps it will change how everyone looks at baseball.
Single = 1 base
Stolen base =1 base
Walk=1 base
Double =2 bases
Triple=3 bases
Homerun=4 bases
That shouldnt be hard math
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007