Mike Trout out with knee surgery.....Card Impact?
ndleo
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I'm a casual modern BB observer. I don't collect Trout, so I have no self interest, but it seems to me Trout's peaks is over so the career numbers we see now indicate he will be short of some of the magic numbers.
I assume he will still get in the HOF, but will his cards still be top of the era like Griffey rules the junk era?
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He had 10 HRs which was leading baseball and might miss only 4 weeks. This one has little impact on his stats.
Let's be real.
This Sunday will mark
3500 DAYS!
since the final postseason at bat of Trouty's career.
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His cards really have nowhere to go BUT down.
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My sources indicate that Trouty's recovery may take much longer than 4 weeks.
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Strange, IMO, to celebrate injury impact to what could have been a spectacular career.
Hitting .220 and only 14 rbi's.
He's 32 now and if you look at the careers of other recent stars you see a drastic drop off in productivity after age 32. We should see a continued drop in Trout's market value much like other stars. Given the fact his values have been hyper inflated much more than any of the other greats I'd expect a much bigger drop off than expected.
If they are just cleaning it out, are, 4-6 weeks but if it's worse, he's probably done
Trout always seems to take the over on any DL estimates. I would be surprised to see him back before the all star break.
that being said, I have believed for a long time that 240 pound CFers do not have a long shelf life in MLB. truthfully, he should have been moved to lf at least 6-7 years ago. both because of his weight and because he just is not a very good CFer. He is getting the Jeter treatment by the angels.
as far as his cardboard outlook, I think he will continue to decline. he has not played a full season since what, 2016 or 2017? cooked into his prices was the hope that he would retire as an inner circle Ruth/Williams/Cobb type player. that is certainly not going to happen as he cant stay healthy and has been in serious decline starting last season. He also has no postseason accolades at all. and no real signature moment, other than striking out to his then teammate to end the WBC.
Bradys prices have cooled significantly since he retired. and he retired as the GOAT with all the QB records that matter. What will Trouts cards do when he retires after fading away as he has the last few years?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Need to move to first base/DH. Then hang around long enough to get 500 HR
Trout is the poor man's mantle. Mantle's career was checkered with injuries and issues. Obviously Mantle was much better, but there are some comparisons.
Here is my rough take on top players of the era -
1982-1989 - Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken
1989-1999 - Ken Griffey
2000-2010 - Transition from Griffey to Jeter/AROD and then to Jeter only
2010-20XX? - This is where I lose perspective. I would think Trout and Harper are here.
Griffey had a long decline as well and his values came back and he never won anything. Is Trout equal to this era as Griffey was to the junk era?
One observation - he already had 6 SBs in 2024. He had a total of 6 SBs in the previous four seasons combined. Perhaps part of the aggressive running on the bases contributed to this injury?
Honestly I never understood the whole Trout hype he will be 33 soon and he may never get 500 HR or 3000 hits or win a World Series. What is so great about him?
Jim Thome had 612 HR's look at the value of his cards. Mike Trout will not pass 612 HR's. Look at Pujols his career was way better than Trout. Pujols over 700 HR's and over 3000 hits with 2 World Series championships.
At this rate Trout will just fade away over time. His stats simply do not stand out.
His 2012-2020 was pretty impressive. Those stats stand out to me. I'm not ready to put him in the HoF, but if he can put together 3-4 more Pujols years I would expect him to be in on the first ballot.
I would hope that 6 90 foot sprints would not be enough to knock a player out for an extended period of time.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
it is because trout was able to walk a lot and got a nice positional adjustment by playing CF and was able to accrue WAR at a fast level when WAR was just starting to take hold with the average baseball fan. He became the poster boy for the "new" stat.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Trout will get 500 HRs. But as much as I love Trout that doesn’t mean what it used to. I think he gets traded - plays for a winner and is remembered differently because of it like Boggs.
Despite the decline, I still think he has a decent shot as a first ballot guy. His peak years have a Koufax like look.
I think this is correct. It is tempting to put Ripken in, but he sort of straddles the 80s/90s.
What is the list of pitchers for the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s?
Agreed, but he is prone to injury, so why tax him more by being more aggressive on the basepath?
Player popularity has as much, if not more, impact than stats on card prices. It’s not always easy to define but for whatever reasons, Mike Trout is immensely popular and it sort of trumps any statistical decline.
I don’t exactly know how to explain Mike Trout’s popularity other than the fact the he smiles a lot, he’s objectively handsome, he has displayed incredible talent, he was a major player in fantasy baseball for many years and he has no real scandals.
Don’t underestimate fantasy sports’ impact on fandom and cards: the new generation often has more allegiance to the players than the teams.
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I really don't think his peak was like Koufax. He did have 3 MVP's which puts him in the argument but Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez each had 2 and never got the acclaim Trout continues to receive.
The problem I find with Trout in comparing him to Koufax's peak is the actual numbers. Trout's main number (WAR) is highly questionable as this ridiculously inflated due to the position he plays and the fact he draws walks. Throughout his career, he has been a below-average centerfielder and for the last 8 years has most likely hurt more than helped his team playing centerfield. When you look at his MVP seasons they match up rather poorly against other notable MVPs on his era.
Trout
2014 .287 36 111 (team 98-64 1st) Lost Divisional round
2016 .315 29 100 (team 74-88 4th)
2019 .291 45 104 (team 72-90 4th)
Koufax's numbers during his prime were so good that it took nearly 30+ years to see a pitcher put up numbers that were similar. Meanwhile, the numbers you see above in Trout's MVP seasons you routinely see every single season by people who don't even place in the top 10 in MVP. Basically, the only number that "seems" stellar is his WAR.
Take a look at some other AL MVP numbers from his era.
Miggy
2012 .330 44 139 (team 88-74 1st) World Series Lost
2013 .348 44 137 (team 93-69 1st) AL Championship Lost
Altuve
2017 .346 24 81 (team 101-61 1st) World Series winner
Betts
2018 .346 32 80 (team 108-54 1st) World Series Win
Judge
2022 .311 62 131 (team 99-63 1st) AL Championship Loss
If you ask me. I'M not a buyer so down. But ask someone who bought one recently.
or someone who buys it 100 years from now.
My vote down and I hope in 100 years one card can buy a entire country .
A card may then, but it won't be a Trout card.
It will be an Ariana Grande card.
I think that Trout really needs to look at his conditioning if 6 very short sprints are so taxing on him that they could cause injury. I think a big part of his problem is that he has become muscle bound. he seems to have a lack of flexibility and his tendons/ligaments are not able to keep up with the strain his muscles are putting on them. Honestly, If he went from 240 down to 205 I think it would do wonders to keep him healthy.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
It's been over/around 100 years since Honus Wagner/Cobb/Ruth and they are still the kings of card collecting.
I don't think Trout or anyone playing now or the last 30-50 years will have the same allure as the pioneer/origin players above that are still collected strong 100 years past their playing days. The early guys will always have that pioneer advantage that will separate them from everyone else that came later.
Add in that the cards themselves won't be anything special as what will separate a card from 2011 from 1977 from 2040 from 1995? They will all be in the same one gigantic bucket with nothing differentiating them once the people who saw them play are all gone. There won't be the same natural rarity and historical signifigence as the cards that adorned Cobb/Ruth/Wagner.
The hobby is growing because of the modern product and the new collectors they bring in. I don’t think any of us know how the hobby will be in the future.
For all we know the pre-war stars maybe overshadowed by some new hobby trend. I go to a lot a shows and it still amazes me how much variety is out there for both sport and non sport
You must not make it over to the sports talk forum very often. Believe me, I'm likely the most disappointed fan of all that Trouty got hurt, yet again, just as I was ramping up to resume teaching my class Trouty 101 at the University of Countdouglas for the 8th season in a row. It makes my job of teaching easier when Trouty is actively choking away games several nights a week.
I hope Trouty gets back out there soon, but I'm not optimistic. As another post alluded to, Trouty always seems to go well over any injury recovery estimates.
My source in the past has accurately reported on his previous injuries, as well. The recovery from the right calf strain and the hamate bone in the left wrist both went much longer than initially expected.
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Trouty seems to have mostly recovered from those injuries. Much more problematic for Trouty is his diagnosis of "lack of heart" and every "clutch bone in his body" appears to be broken.
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That's why we routinely get treated to what I have termed "The Trouty Special". It's when Trouty finds himself in a high leverage situation, game on the line, and it just overwhelms him, and he just stands there watching strikes go by like they're 3 babes in bikinis, with a stupid look on his face, mouth agape.
April 22, we were treated to an all-timer. Down 4-2, bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, 2 outs, and Trouty at the plate...
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Never took a swing! Game over! I can't tell you how much I'm going to miss that feeling over the next couple of months! I stay up all evening watching the game, waiting for the payoff, and Trouty delivers right on cue! It's exhilarating!
For 8 seasons now, I've been telling people on this forum to watch the games and you will see that there is no way Trouty should ever be considered "clutch". I have been right on this from day one, despite the white knights and the fan boys that try to come to his defense with these made up stats "oh he's so clutch that you just don't even know". Lol
I always respond, just watch the games. Trouty always shrinks in the biggest moments. Trouty has never let me down. Show me any instance where you say he's clutch, and I'll show you at least 20 just like this where he choked all over himself in embarrassing fashion.
I'm not celebrating Trouty's injury at all. I am truly going to miss watching him in action. Or I should say, standing there inactive.
Very interesting.
It could be a form of attentional bias but I’m leaning more towards a simple selection bias.
Again, very interesting. Does your world seem full of possibilities or full of traps?
'cause to Trout, statisticians, and many on this forum a Walk is pretty much as valuable as a hit, situation and the team itself is not relevant. So why should he bother to be taking bat off shoulder with Game On The Line? IMHO pursuit of high WAR more times than not is anti-team and anti-winning.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
WAR just measures how a player contributes to win probability of their team.
How is it so easy to dismiss the statistics which measure his performance in those situations?
Which WAR measure are you referring to and why is it anti team or anti win?
@Ridethelightning - curious your POV on Trout.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Trout was the best hitter in baseball for a decade. Forget WAR, forget fielding and position and so forth - he was the best hitter for a decade. Easy 1st ballot guy.
Was Pujols not the 2000-2010 guy? Maybe Pujols and Jeter
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Trout's numbers 2012-2019. I'd love to see who was close to this for those 8 consecutive seasons.
Mookie Betts is "somewhat" similar to Trout, Mookie is still going strong and gaining on Trout who is declining. Players like Acuna and Soto haven't had enough time to catch Trout, but are on the right trajectory.
has anyone heard when the surgery is happening? seems they have doddled for a week now they have wasted.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Typically, with a tear in the knee, you wait for the swelling to be completely gone to produce the best imaging possible and to have the best conditions possible for the surgery.
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I just read that they said surgery went well on Saturday, so possibly the surgery happened on Friday?
they said it was a partial medial meniscectomy. so, I guess, they removed the damaged part of the meniscus.
it seems like they went the quicker recovery route. I have been told that meniscus repair usually has the better outcome for the patient as it leaves the entire meniscus intact. that procedure has a much longer recovery though. Trout would have missed the entire season. with the meniscectomy, part of the meniscus is removed. recovery is much faster, but outcomes are worse for patient. less stability and usually arthritis in the knee.
I am sure the Angels just want him back ASAP
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
At this point, he’s basically their only draw. Maybe that changes but I don’t think anyone wants to see the Angels without Mike Trout.
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I just read a report on Athlon Sports that the Angels expect for Trout to be out "until at least early August" after his knee surgery. So much for 3-6 weeks.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I wager when all is said and done it will be Sept or entire season.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I believe I read that he had a partial meniscectomy... So they removed a piece of the meniscus. In general that's a 4 week recovery period - meaning this is when you're in a brace and on crutches. Then you have a 4 week rehab period usually. Then he will probably need some conditioning and rehab assignment... I would expect 3 weeks there. So that's a optimistic return to baseball timeline... 11 weeks.
Mid July would be best case for him. Maybe the recovery could go a little longer. I had the same procedure and I dealt with a lot of stiffness in my knee for about 8 months. It's hard to predict. I don't win anything if I'm right, so it's low risk, but I'm going to mark July 9th on my 'Trout Returns Calendar'.
I've endured 3 surgeries on the same knee. He's gonna be out 3 months MINIMUM if he has any sense and listened to his surgeon
That august / sept guess is spot on. Last thing anyone should do is further stress an already weakened cartilage area. Give it time to heal.
I'd DH him for the rest of his contract.
Buh Buh Buh what about his WAR...? It won't be overinflated anymore....
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Probably still be the best of his generation but fails to meet career expectations. Haven't his cards already seen a 50-75% drop from all-time highs in the '11 update, Diamond & Cognac?
Trout needs to DH. He's still young enough to get back to a few monster offensive seasons but get that injury waiting to happen off the field. Kinda reminds of Gincarlo Stanton getting hurt every time the breeze shifts. .
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Trout came along in the advanced metrics era. That's why he's so popular with that WAR thing. Unfortunately MLB marketing sucks and the young generation in America gets further and further away from baseball every year. But yeah, Ken Griffey Jr. would be a better comparison to the All-Time Greats. I like Pujols in there too.
After age 32 you see a drastic drop off in productivity even with healthy stars. Pujols, Miggy, and many other recent Hall of Famers see as much as a 60 point drop in batting average post-age 32 let alone the power drop-off they see. Trout has already seen a noticeable drop-off in productivity over the last couple of years when he did play.
I think the best hope for Trout's post age 32 career is for a few .260 30+ home run seasons that get him closer to 500. He will definitely see a drop off in his walks as pitchers at this point no longer need to walk him. The interesting thing about Trout is that his walks are what made him a superstar. This along with getting a generous bump from playing centerfield (poorly though) made him a WAR star. I tend to think the main reason he was walked so often was simply because he played for the Angels. Prior to Ohtani's emergence, pitchers would pitch around Trout which inflated his walks. Once Ohtani emerged at the plate you see a drastic drop off in walks for Trout. From 2011 through 2019 his OBA was .419. Since 2020 it has dropped to .377. That is nearly a 50 point drop. It's down to .357 over the last 2 seasons.