Saturday. Kentucky Derby Day. Any thoughts,picks?
BLUEJAYWAY
Posts: 9,317 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
No Bob Baffert this year in the KD. He is barred. The number 17 post has never won. Am going with Mystic Dan. With 20 horses it's a cavalry charge.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
0
Comments
I like the Mystik Dan pick.
I am also taking Just Steele and Forever Young.
I know nothing about horse racing, but I attend a derby party every year so I have to pick my bets. I picked my favorite names. I don't know a better way to pick horses.
Brad Cox has 3 horses. Pletcher and Brown 2 each. This confuses bettors as they run uncoupled.
Ask your family, friends, co-workers, neighbors, etc, who they like.
If there is one horse left that nobody likes, that's the guaranteed winner. 😉
I just pick a name I like. Track Phantom for me.
Did we lose the advanced search engine on this site. I’m trying to pull up my picks last year in the triple crown.
To recap, I successfully picked the
Winner of the Derby
Second in the Preakness
Winner in the Belmont.
Total $3200 or $3600 IF I recall.
I’ll look at the field and post this years prediction
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Good luck🐎.
I recall you had some big hits last year. Looking forward to your picks.
Nice score!
Hopefully we drum up a little more interest in the triple crown this year as the Derby draws near. Thing about lightly raced 3 year olds is it’s like trying to pick maidens except all of these horses are well bred. Not enough races under their belt to see a trait and couple that with a 20 horse field.
Picking winning jockeys doesn’t hurt the odds of picking a winner. I never or almost never bet the favorite but with John Velazquez on Fierceness I can’t leave him out… yet. My early picks
Catching Freedom 8-1 Flavien Pratt
Track Phantom 20-1 Steven Asmussen
Fierceness 5-2. John Velazquez
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Two thoughts.
Horse racing is reprehensible. Most racehorses are 2-4 years old, are used until they are broken and are abandoned or killed at the age of 3. Horse live 30-40 years usually.
Horses will go extinct within 100 years of the end of horse racing.
The substantial truth doctrine is an important defense in defamation law that allows individuals to avoid liability if the gist of their statement was true.
I don’t know what to do now but it looks lose-lose for the horses.
And so is cage fighting and boxing where two humans try to beat each other to death.
Race horses are the most pampered animals on the planet. After racing careers the majority, not the minority go to stud or live their lives on farms as training animals for younger horses. You’re statement is filled with falsehoods and honestly I have no idea why you would even open this thread.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Still not much interest in today’s race. Just read that Honor Marie is owned by a Texarkana family. Since I now reside here I’ll place him on the list of long shots for no other reason.
4, 7, 12, 17
Wagers to come. Maria and I will be going to Louisiana Downs later. I’ll play the ponies and she will play slots.
My gambling pool stand at $5k from the triple crown and last year’s NFL futures.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Wagering 5k to win on "Rich Strike" in the Kentucky Derby, would have netted a very nice score, north of 400k.
Of course it takes some large stones to make a bet like that. In Andy Beyer's book, if I'm remembering right, he bet a cold 2k exacta, may have been on the Derby. Won him over 500k. He has a picture of the winning ticket in his book as proof of the bet.
Wonder what the tax bite was on those bets.
Best of luck to all on their bets. Staying with Mystic Dan. Trainer/jockey combo won the big filly race yesterday,Kentucky Oaks at Churchill.
@2dueces is the old school horseracing handicapper I fully trust
Same as regular income.
To say that boxing is the same as horse racing is ridiculous, with boxing people know the risks going in and have a choice whether to participate or not, just like in football. Horses don't have a choice, they're just flat-out enslaved and forced to run.
Interesting point. Free the horses!
This is just more proof that we’re living in a simulation.
I mean honest to god, I would love to go to the Kentucky Derby, yank one of those jockeys down off his horse, take his whip from him, and just start beating his a$$ with it, see how much he likes it.
Let the painter paint!
I used to watch horse racing years ago, until I started seeing and reading what they really do to these horses. There are literally thousands of articles, photos, and documentaries out there if people would just take the time to look into it. They are certainly not pampered, the abuse is like something out of a horror movie.
Horse racing can be made into a complicated issue. I'll try to keep it short. Firstly it's important to remember that if it wasn't for horse racing, these thoroughbreds would have never been born. If a thoroughbred horse could be asked if it would take having a pretty good life of being fed and cared for, and also running which they enjoy doing, I'm sure it would say a few cracks of the whip, now and then, wouldn't be bad.
About the whip. Herbivores in general are not nearly as intelligent as carnivores. All a herbivore needs to do in life is consume plants, run and hide from its enemies, and produce offspring. There are a few exceptions when some herbivores become so big and strong such as elephants and gorillas, that carnivores don't bother them and look for an easier meal.
Whereby a carnivore must cleverly hunt for its survival, and it takes much more intelligence to be able to do that. I only bring up this point because without the whip, horses would be untrainable. The whip is used as a communication devise informing them what their master human wants them to do and not do. The master who feeds and cares for them, and so they obey.
Ya gotta understand the mentality of a horse to understand why a horse tolerates the whip. It's hilarious to me that many horse trainers, owners, etc say their horse understands the concept of winning a race. Horses don't have any clue whatsoever of what winning or losing a race means. The concept they do know is instinctively running from their enemies. And when their human master whips them in a race, they figure the human must be doing it because there are enemies of both that need to be gotten away from by running faster, and so they do.
Horses don't look at the whip as a punitive devise. They see it as a survival devise from their human masters so they accept it. Therefore while yes, horses feel pain when the whipping occurs, it really doesn't mentally bother them at all.
Hey feel the way ya feel, that's okay. However if ya consume beef, pork, chicken, etc, then in my opinion any outrage about horse racing is a bit hypocritical. Because raising thoroughbred horses and them enjoying a pretty good life, is a lot different than raising an animal for slaughter. I'm fine with both. Although over the years I've eliminated beef and pork from my diet for health reasons.
Oh well, i guess I couldn't keep it short. 😉
Horses legs are very thin, and a lot of times, their legs can't handle the pressure of being run so hard and the legs end up breaking, and once that happens they put them down. In 2014, a horse named Wigmore Hall, his leg broke during a race and they just shot him in the head right there at the track. This crap happens all the time.
Honestly, horse racing is despicable, the horses don't have a say in the matter, they're being forced to run, often to their death, by a superior species. I've had my say on the subject, enjoy your day, and if you win your bets then enjoy your blood money. And remember, you don't have to be a part of this crap.
Jesus this thread turned dark.
So back on track without the PETA crowd taking over a betting thread.
I’m putting $20 across on
4 Catching Freedom 8-1
$20 exacta box 4, 7, 12, 17
Hope everyone enjoys the race.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Good luck. I’m going to watch but if they start shooting horses I’m gonna have questions.
.
Impressive.
Why don’t they make fascinators for dudes? Some of those are pretty cool.
Amazing finish with Program Trading and Naval Power in one of the under races
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
Good call! 👍
Be sure to show us a pic of your new car. 😉
I just subscribed to the BLUEJAYWAY long shot news letter. 😊
Great call @BLUEJAYWAY
Thanks to all for your kind comments.
And you say Patrick Mahomes is pompous?
BTW- horses do know the concept of winning and losing. As a kid I had a pony that could outrun a couple quarter horses we also owned. Was the pony faster? It was fast but certainly not any faster than the quarter horses. It won because they didn’t care if they won or lost, but the pony did. She refused to allow them to win. I didn’t have to kick her or anything, just hang on.
Try to stick to subjects you know something about, saying you know more about race horses than a professional trainer is beyond pompous arrogance, it’s actually really bizarre.
I’m sorry at this point I just don’t care if I get kicked off here. Steve’s post is simply abject stupidity.
The most moronic several paragraphs I’ve ever read in my life.
I can’t take it anymore. Please let me get the bam hammer!🍺🍺🍺
Darin - a used car or swamp land salesman must get very excited when you walk thru their door. 🤣
In fairness it’s the first psychological assessment of horses that I’ve read. So I’ll have to reserve judgement.
I appreciate the commentary on the negative aspects of horse racing. I’ve never given it much thought and will seek to learn more. I would say that how the information was delivered was not very compelling. Not sure what the angle was there but surely less logical and emotional. Before I try to oversimplify it I’m going to have to do some reading.
Great call on Mystik Dan! That’s a winning name too.
Comes from watching countless animal videos on Youtube which I enjoy doing. 😊
Simply look at all the horses after a race is over. They all act the exact same way whether they win or lose the race. In fact, the horses that win, normally don't particularly like the winner's circle because crowds of humans too close makes them nervous.
They all just wanna get back to the barn and enjoy a bagful of tasty oats.
Horses love to run, they do it in the wild. Horses are competitive as all animals are. You could see the two outside horses going at each other on the final stretch. They probably actually would have finished 1 and 2 if they werent messing with each other
It was a great derby that had a great finish and several other great races
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
In the wild with horses, the only thing that could be called "competitive" are the male's battles for mating rights. The fact is in the wild, the alpha male is the lead horse in the herd, and the rest simply follow him.
Alpha animals are established through fights and psychical feats. They also get challenged by younger ones until they eventually lose
Horses dont have an alpha but they are still competitive. Theres a retirement farm that a lot of the best horses go to where they live a better life than most people. They have to keep them separate during their breeding days to reduce the risk of injury since they will race each other on their own
They live good lives. Some people abuse it but that is the same for any animal. Should people not have dogs because of some bad owners? Cats?
Wisconsin 2-6 against the SEC since 2007
On to the Preakness. Bob Baffert will be in contention.
Lost a $100 on the race but won over $700 playing poker
I mean honest to god, could you be any more stupid? Horses don't run in the wild at break neck speeds while being whipped, until their legs can no longer take the pressure and break. Have you even taken the time to look at all the documentaries and information out there about the horrors of what these animals are subjected to, all so a bunch of degenerate gamblers can get their fix? You all make me sick, my time on the sports forum is over, I'm done here, I've enjoyed my years here but I can't stand to be around people that support this crap.
Here’s what I don’t understand. WTF did you @doubledragon high jack my thread in the first place? If you don’t like horse racing start your own rant about it. You and the other jerk wad had no business posting. But you had to post BS in my thread. I’ve been a defender of you when others bashed you but I now see why. You threatened to quit numerous times and never do. So stay or go but leave my threads alone. An innocent thread about a race and who’s going to win turned into some peta toast. See ya.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.