Are the 11-5 Pittsburgh Pirates for real ?
4Boston
Posts: 318 ✭✭✭
Are you a buyer or a seller ?
Would be nice if they keep it up.
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4Boston
Posts: 318 ✭✭✭
Comments
Seller.
They did this last year, led the division until they started playing more and they plummeted like a stone in water, don't let them fool you
But the NL Central is a bunch of middling teams.
Their best start in over 40 years.
Considering they have the worst owner in baseball.....I say seller.
Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!
Ignore list -Basebal21
Words hurt!
The Baltimore Orioles May expose them already this weekend.
The Central is down but still a sell on the Pirates. If the Pirates were serious about winning Paul Skenes would have been on the opening day roster and not told during spring training that no matter what he does hes getting sent to the minors
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This is the 5th year of Cherington's rebuild and the year they expect to be lingering around the top of the division at the end if you believe the messaging of the plan. That, I'm sure, plays into the plan with Skenes. You know best I'm sure, but their flawed concept is for him to build up innings in the minors before he is deployed -- the Strasburg plan as it were. As a baseball fan, we all get to second guess them, because plans are just that... plans.
If you think about it... that's good that plans on paper don't always translate to the expected results. If they did, then I guess there would be no need for players. The front office would assemble a roster and then it would enter into a system and the rest is algorithms. The Future of Sports! We could roll for player stats... where's my d20!?
Side-note. I am a Brewers fan, and I appreciate the small market teams and how they have to organize their rosters and how they compete in a different way in the same game. It's been a good decade+ as a Brewers fan though, and I am OK with the NL central getting very little love from the pundits and the mob because the record speaks for itself.
While most guys do need time to grow in the minors he is not one of them. Throwing an inning in the minors is the same as in MLB. Hell end up actually throwing less innings in the minors because he will be striking so many guys out. Its just service time manipulation. He was throwing 103 in spring training and is big league ready. If anything its wasting innings of him in the minors given that throwing that hard he will probably get hurt at some point.
By keeping him down in the minors for a while they can keep the clock from starting on his free agency. Even if they call him up half way through the year it forces him to finish top 3 in rookie of the year to get credit for an entire year. The Nationals did the same thing with Stras where they kept him down with September calls up until they felt they could actually win and fans were getting fed up.
If they were actually serious about really trying to compete Skenes would have started the year in the majors. The Os are banking on their other talent to let their risk pay off doing the same thing with Jackson Holliday who should also have started the year in the big leagues as well
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Well. He pitched less than 9 innings last year and he was on a 7 day cycle in college. With fewer games they also work much less between games. It’s a significant increase in workload in the minors and then another step in innings in the majors.
He pitched well in a few spring training innings. He’s got the stuff. If they called him up now it could do more harm than good and there’s little reason to suspect he wouldn’t be shut down before the end of the season regardless. I don’t get that argument that they should trot him out there now. I get the service time gamesmanship. It is what it is but this isn’t just that. Skenes is going to be in the majors way before most pitchers. I would be more worried about a case like Burnes where they push him a bit too soon and he has a regression.
It seems like the pirates are interested in competing and they didn’t look outclassed at all by the O’s. They have a young core and a 3 year window now with their core under control. Next year might be their year.
Got the win today for 7-2.
Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!
Ignore list -Basebal21
He pitched a 122.2 innings in college having a historic college season. He had a 1.69 era, 0.750 whip, 20 walks and 209 strikeouts and was prompted to AAA by the end of the season after being drafted that year.
Its service time manipulation. Theres nothing gained other than not starting his contract by keeping him in the minors
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That 122 + 6 is still almost 100 innings less than a full season of pitches.
In those 6 innings he pitched to a 5+ ERA before he was shut down to limit his work after that LSU season. Then he pitched a few innings in spring ball this year.
Maybe he’s the next Feller and all but it’s not usual for a pitcher to hit MLB these days without stretching out for MLB work. Perhaps there are some successful examples but I’m not aware of many modern ones. Ask “The Bird”.
Anyways. I’m onto the next debate. I’m sure Skene is ready.
Multiple players have gone from college right to the pros without spending a single inning in the minors. That doesnt even count the Japanese players that play shorter seasons and have a different sized ball, South Korean players that play shorter seasons or Cuban players etc that go right to the MLB.
Garrett Crochet who was drafted in 2020 by the White Sox from the University of Tennessee never spent a day in the minors. The only time hes pitched in the minors was during rehab from an injury. Mike Leake in 2010 went right to MLB. There are certain guys that can do it, Skenes is one of them.
Xavier Nady and Dave Winfield also went right to the majors.
A ton of players both pitchers and hitters have the only difference between the international and college players is that the international players are free agent signings that they cant manipulate the service time of
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Their pitching and hitting has been above average so far.
Best record in the NL.
7-2
Ok. Now I know you’re trolling here. Haha. Crochet came up as a reliever and we’re going to have to see how he does coming back from
Tommy John surgery in 2024 as his first chance at a full season since. His control was a problem last season. So far so good in 2024… I’m sure that it was the right move for Crochet so let’s move back to Leake.
He came to the majors with a lot of excitement on the Reds. He was shut down in his rookie season with dead arm and was back in the minors the next year. Dominant college pitcher though. Team USA. Rushed. Maybe.
Your examples are the data I am leveraging to make my point.
Winfield is an odd example. I know he was drafted as a pitcher but he was put in the outfield. He wasn’t pitching.
The Japanese pitchers transition to MLB is a nuanced discussion. How they handled Yamamoto was, at least in part, based on poor past results for that particular transition. They had him on a 5 day rotation to get his innings up to around 200 a season. For 2 years. This wasn’t done with Ohtani and he’s had 2 Tommy John surgeries now. Ohtani is obviously a more complicated example.
The competitive example would be a pitcher who came to the majors with no or limited professional baseball experience before starting in MLB and having a successful career. Or. I could augment that to just having a successful rookie contract from the team perspective - after that I guess the team got their value out so who cares.
The data that exists points in one direction so I’m surprised by your confidence in your opinion.
The idea isn’t even to “find the unicorn” - the pitcher who skipped the minors or never played in another professional league, transitioned to MLB seamlessly and pitched a productive career mostly free of injuries.
The idea is to produce a set of data that says - when you have a star college pitcher you should have him pitch 200 innings his rookie season to help your club win now because if you don’t that means the club is manipulating his service time.
If you want to make that point stick you have to believe that the pirates front office believes the right thing to do is to have him in the show now starting games. If they believe that and they are starting him in the minors then they are manipulating his YoS.
The assertion is just so completely out of left field - or out of right field if you’re talking about the hawk - that I am very curious how that conclusion can be logically reached. Teach me Master!
Crochet went right from Tennessee to the White Sox.
Leake went right from ASU to the Reds. Leake was absolutely not back in the minors after his rookie year. He pitched 7.1 innings in AAA in 2011 on a rehab assignment which are the only innings he ever pitched in the minors. He threw 167.2 innings for the Reds in 2011
Winfield wasnt valued as a pitcher by MLB teams they valued his bat.
Every single Japanese, KBO, Cuba etc player is coming to MLB with only minor league experience. Those leagues are not on par with MLB and SEC baseball is about equal to AA so are a lot of the ACC and some of the Big 12 teams along with random ones like Southern Miss sometimes.
The Japanese ball even has seems in a different placement. The Japanese team did not try and groom Yamamoto for MLB work, they pitched him that much because he was the best pitcher in the league. The Japanese teams arent in the habit of trying to train guys to go to the MLB but the teams will certainly take the 10s of millions of dollars they get when it happens. Othanis issues with his elbow are a combination of work load, how hard he throws, and hitting lefty and throwing righty.
I dont know why you think it makes any difference if a stud who clearly has nothing to learn in the minors pitches against minor league players or on the big league roster. Whether Skenes throws 170 innings in AAA or MLB its the same thing other than how much the team paid him and his service time.
IF they were worried about limiting his innings they wouldnt have him pitching right now or they would be planning to shut him down in August which why wouldnt you get the innings in the MLB if you really want to win. He is throwing the innings already and minor league innings dont mean they dont count on arm stress.
Hes one of the few that has nothing to gain from being in the minors other than a team trying to manipulate his service time. He even got better pitching coaching at LSU than hes getting in the Pirates AAA team. LSU and Wake Forest are the two teams that a lot of the MLB guys go to to use their pitching labs that are better than anything MLB teams even have and certainly better than anything in the minors.
The Pirates didnt want to start his service clock and are making excuses for why not
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Crochet did what he did. I didn’t state otherwise. He was also originally drafted out of high school by the Crew and I was bummed when he chose to go to Tennessee. He throws hard and it’s not a surprise that he had a UCL so early in his career after his first full workload season. Again. In relief. Not as a starter.
Leake. Let’s just dismiss this one
He didn’t technically play in the “minors” but he pitched in the winter leagues before joining the reds in 2010.
He was shut down with dead arm in his rookie season and did not pitch again that year.
He pitched with the reds to start the 2011 season before being sent down after 2 starts and. 5+ ERA.
Neither of these are great examples to support your case.
In the past 10 years of data we have seen a direct correlation between velocity and UCL injury. There’s only 1 Nolan Ryan and he’s retired - his last pitch… a UCL injury.
As pitchers are throwing more and pitching less we are seeing more of these injuries. We are seeing pitchers who pitch with higher velocities having these injuries and having shorter careers.
I love the confidence that Skenes has nothing to learn in the minors and he has no need to build stamina to help mitigate arm injury. That’s great. I just don’t understand how you know that. Simply asserting a belief doesn’t make it true and there’s no data to support it. In fact the data shows the exact opposite. The correlation is ridiculously strong. Velocity to Injury Rate. Any GM or front office decision maker who ignores that is putting their job on the line, especially considering the Pirates saying that they believe their stars align next season. Maybe they are “manipulating service time to maximize years of club control”. I have difficulty constructing that argument. This isn’t season 2 or 3 where he’s being called up late and optioned back and forth to limit his time. Just seems like the lowest risk decision given the variables.
Trot him out so soon and maybe you catch lightning. Strasberg who is the obvious comparison…. Well. How did that turn out? I forget.
So all I’m hearing is an opinion without data to support it. But I’m still really curious how that opinion is formed.
Trust me that as a fan. I want Skenes in the majors now. I look forward to that first Bucs - Brewers game with Skenes vs Peralta! I might have to get on a plane for that. But if I’m playing fantasy GM…. Nope. I’m going to see where my club is in May and see where he’s at.
Why would we dismiss Leake? He threw over 1800 innings in MLB. Lots of guys play in the winter leagues. Acuna Jr plays baseball in Venezuela in the off season, Tatis Jr in the Dominican etc. Guys dont just do nothing. The Arizona fall league which he played in the year he was drafted was less than 20 innings against the top prospects in baseball which he dominated.
Leake spent a grand total of 7.1 innings in the minors his entire career that consisted of 2 appearances in 2011 the SAME year he throw 168.2 inning for the Reds. Im not sure why you keep trying to push this notion that he was put into the minors for tjhe season
You seem to have some misunderstanding about building stamina. It doesnt matter if its done in the MLB or the minors as long as the guys is ready to face MLB hitters which Skenes is. I dont know how to make it any clearer, whether its in the minors or the majors its the exact same stress on the arm.
If anything youre doing more damage in the minors with inferior recovery options and facilities. Every now and then someone comes along that is ready for the MLB right away and Skenes is one of those players. He probably will get hurt at some point like most pitchers do and hes just being wasted in the minors to manipulate his service time
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My point was..
I am not making any comment about whether he needed time in the minors or whether it was beneficial to his career, or not, or that it was in any relation to his time in the majors. Just stating the facts there. I'm just stating the facts as they are. I don't have much of an opinion on Leake. He started out great and had some flashes in his career. If I am wrong about one of the facts as I have stated them, then, oops. I am watching the Brewers take batting practice against the Mariners and that's my primary focus.
Yeah. I didn't state, or attempt to imply, that he was in the minors for the entire 2011 season. I think that I said he started in the majors in 2011 helps my case that I did not state that. I do see what you're trying to do with Crochet and Leake. They both went straight to the majors from college/winter ball. So your conclusion is that because these 2 guys did it then Skenes should do it. That is an opinion. Both of those guys had issues in their first season. Crochet lost 2022 and almost all of 2023 recovering from UCL replacement surgery. If you're saying that this is the example the Pirates should follow I don't understand. If you're saying that Skenes won't have these issues because he has nothing to learn, then I'm not sure how you get there.
I don't know if I have a big misunderstanding about building stamina. I'm not deep into Kinesiology. I don't think there is any difference where the pitching is done. It's about the duration, interval and velocity as the data states.
MLB teams limit innings for minor league pitchers to reduce the impact. They don't keep this a secret. This has changed quite a bit (more reduction) since the introduction of the pitch timer in the minors. With the pitch timer in the MLB and the shorter interval between pitches I expect we're going to continue to see pitchers pitch less innings in the majors as well (as they are). There is just less time to recover between pitches now.
The stress is caused by the force that the muscles exert on the bones and ligaments. Pitchers who throw harder are more prone to stress related injury of the ligaments in the arm and shoulder. I don't think you need to make your point any more clear. I understand your assertion(s). I just don't understand how you reach them.
I understand that pitchers throw a lot through their entire life and their career. It's not just the innings in games. It's the warmups the simulated games the BP sessions.
Here's what I am saying.
If you compare the average velocity of MLB pitchers year by year over the past 10 years to the average number of ligament injuries for pitchers you should be able to observe the same correlation that I am referring to. As average velocity has increased... UCL injury rates have increased. I would be more cautious, as a GM, when I bring the next Strasburg to the majors. I don't see this as service time mgmt., but you could be right. If they bring him up in a couple weeks... then maybe you're on to something. If not, then... that's pie in your face
This is why I don't make predictions like a modern day Nostradumbass.
Here's what you're saying.
Skenes is ready. And Crochet and Leake are prime examples which support my case.
What I wish is that Leake and Crochet were great examples for your case. So that I could have avoided that and just stated...
2 examples don't present a pattern because 2 out of 50 doesn't move the needle in your favor. I think that the better examples for how Skenes should be handled are guys like...
Cole, Bieber, Wacha.
Cole is probably even a better comparison to Skenes than Strasburg. Before Strasburg was drafted people were talking about his mechanical issues putting too much stress on his elbow -- they were right. You can make the argument that Strasburg did his time in the minors and look what happened, or that his shoulder injury caused him to put more stress on his elbow leading to the UCL injury.
You might be right. How do you know? What else do you know? I have to assume you live in Portland and have a big decision on how you want that 1.3bn powerball jackpot paid. I say take the lump sum.
Nice rally in B9 for the Pirates today to take 2 out of 3 from the O's. I hope they call Skenes up and he has a strong, injury-free season. He's going to pitch great in the NLCS against the Brewers, but unfortunately it won't be enough. Haha.
Leake pitched over 168 inning in the pros in 2011 and 7.1 innings in the minors which you keep ignoring.
Leake was sent down so that the Reds could add an extra reliever during a short period where their schedule didnt require a 5th starter. Instead of sitting him on the bench they let him keep his regular schedule and then brought him back up almost immediately which is common for players with options.
If a guys going to get hurt theyre going to get hurt whether its in the minors or MLB. They have better recovery facilities in the MLB as well. College stadiums at the big programs are better equipped than minor league stadiums
Theres no difference between innings in the minors
Which proves the point that its the exact same throwing innings in the minors as the MLB. Its whether or not theyre ready for the MLB. You can build a guy up and stretch them out at the MLB level which has been done numerous times. The high school guys are the ones that have to be stretched out in the minors and would be a detriment on the MLB roster and even that isnt always the case.
Kershaw pitched one full season in the minors out of high school and was a full time starter on the Dodgers at the age of 20. They also waited a couple months to call him up to get the extra year of control.
And they limit innings for guys in MLB as well. Im very against the pitch clock timing and guys are dropping like flys, the players hate that it keeps getting shortened as well. It doesnt mean someone is less likely to get hurt in the minors
Being in the minors doesnt reduce that stress
Which is the same in the minors as MLB
You keep just saying things like being in the minors is less risk, its not. Yes injuries will increase with harder throwing guys and they will increase with the shortening pitch clock.
The point youre missing is that whether they pitch in AA, AAA, or MLB it doesnt change the risk factor. They are pitching the same
Skenes is still throwing 103 in the minors. Guys that throw a 100 dont all of a sudden just start lazily throwing 80 because theyre in the minors. Being in the minors first doesnt reduce the chance of injury in a career. The whole point of the minors is to introduce guys to higher and higher levels of competition and work on things they need to improve. Every now and then a player comes a long that is so much better than everyone else that being in the minors is a waste of time. Skenes is one of those guys. Hes MLB ready already.
Stras is a bad example. He has a physiological defect with thoracic outlet syndrome where the nevers and blood vessels between his neck and arm pit are compressed. Thats what ended his career. Pretty much no one comes back from that surgery and when they do theyre a shell of their former self.
So Cole whose headed for TJ surgery, Wacha who has thrown more than 160 innings twice in his career from constant injuries, and Bieber who just had TJ surgery are examples of having someone in the minors first keep them healthy?
I would never live in Portland
Skenes is MLB ready. I know what MLB teams are doing with these players.
Theres absolutely no argument that Skenes isnt one of the Pirates best 5 starters in the organization. Skenes is going to throw 150+ innings if he stays healthy and it makes no difference its its 150 on the Pirates or 130 in Indy and 20 in Pitt in term of his health. The only difference is that 130 of those innings would have been wasted in the minors to keep his service clock from starting
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I’m not asserting any difference between a pitch in the minors vs a pitch in the majors or a pitch in the backyard if they’re the same pitch.
Thankfully for the yanks Cole doesn’t need TJ surgery… yet. Unless you know something I haven’t read.
I don’t know the details of Strasburgs TOS. I would have to assume it was neurogenic given what I have read. It could be physiological or it could be the result of injuries, repetitive motion, and scar tissue. I was commenting more so on the earlier injuries in his career and also the fact that he didn’t escape his rookie season without injury.
I think we’ve dithered away from the point. Time will tell. Best of luck.
Cole has UCL issues. Theyre trying to see if taking a few months off will save it. Generally in those instances an inevitable surgery is just delayed. Right now hes expected to start trying to play just simple catch in the next day or two and will go from there. Even if it does work its going to take him a while to get back up to speed, he wasnt supposed to be throwing at all for a month now. Hes obviously got the best rehab care there is with their investment in him so maybe he pulls it off.
The TOS with Stras contributed to the other injuries earlier. Obviously how hard he throws did as well, but whether nerve signals, lood flow or both that impeded the recovery of the limb below the issue point.
We agree on pichers getting hurt and are going to get hurt. The disagreement seems to be about service time manipulation where top prospects and generational talents are getting a benefit being in the minors. Theres countless top guys that have been called up in the last few years as soon as the team had the extra control.
Its not something that just started either. You can go back several CBA agreements and see it happening. Teams that can kind of get away with it are ones banking on the talent they have on the team already. Some teams do it more than others. The Os did it with Rutschman as well and the Pirates also did ti with Cole.
As far as the initial question I'm still selling on the Pirates overall but the NL Central is a bit of a disaster this year unless a lot of guys step up
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This thread got pretty interesting
🍻
As are the Pirates, scoring 2 in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to beat the Orioles 3-2.
They have the best record in baseball.
Yankees and Pirates both 6-1 on the road so far. Both impressive.
No doubt they are putting smiles on faces in Pittsburgh
Just keep.in mind we are 8 days into April
I say they don't keep it up
You try and keep it up for 8 days.
Pirates are on Viagara this year. They’re going to keep it up all season.
They won't even finish 2nd in the division
Book it
Avatar bet ?
Steelers helmet in October if they do ?
You got a bet!
Patriots Helmet or logo in October for you
Shaking on it now
🫱🫲
🤝
sell
Go Pirates.
Long time Clemente fan wishing the best for the Pirates.
I think the pirates are a lot more legit than the tigers who started 6-3.
Those two teams start a series today so I’m hoping for a pirates sweep.
I agree but that division is rough this year. Its not out of the question they could finish second and be like .500 and only have one team from the division in the playoffs. Cincy is tanking, Brewers arent exactly spending money but Hoskins was a nice pick up. Cards are kind of eh outside a few players but they always seem to over perform.
Cubs are most likely to win it and it wouldnt surprise me if the Cards were in the mix. The over under win totals for the division Pirates have the lowest number and the highest number is the Cubs at 90 which is low for a division winner. Both central divisions are the weakest divisions in their league
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The Brewers are spending $105MM on active/injured.
But if you dig in, you know, they are spending $700K on Contreras. They might not be dumping $346MM to get 75 wins like some other club. They spent about $140MM for 92 wins instead.
Our owner also didn't come out and admit that he learned that $$$ can't always buy wins in baseball.
With respect to Hoskins. I don't know what to expect this year, but so far he's looked OK. Missed a slam by an inch on the bat the other night... but 2 out of 3 with the Mariners is OK.
Mets 338MM
Yanks 312MM
Dodgers 320MM
Burn that money! Haha
Seriously though. Starting Pitchers. The most overpaid position in baseball. Living. In. The. Past!
Dodgers will make the playoffs again this year, not sure how putting money on the field instead of pocketing it is something fans would want to see. The last time they missed the playoffs was 2012.
Yankees have half their money in three guys 2 of the 3 cant stay healthy for them and now the third cant either.
Hoskins is coming back from an ACL, he should get better as the season goes on and starts to trust it more.
You can win with pitching just like the Nats, and Diamondbacks did when they won the WS. You have to the lineup for it to work though. Spending big money on middle relievers is just stupid
The NL and AL Central combined might be lucky to have 3 playoff teams total
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It seems almost every year one team gets off to this type of start. Sometimes it's a team that no one expects. Fooled me.
This guy is all in on the Pirates.
Looking at your handle, are you a Pats fan??
Sorry we already shook😂
Haha you are correct 😂
Bednar has picked his side.
Skenese has now made three starts in AAA
3 innings 5ks
3 innings 6ks
3.1 innings 8k
But im sure hes learning a lot being stretched out to 3.1 innings
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I hope they bring him up soon.
Pirates division is tied with the AL East as the best in baseball so far.
Regarding Skenes. Has anyone watched him pitch in MiLB this year or just following the stat lines?
I have only caught a few innings and I’ll caveat by saying I’m no expert. But. His four seam fastball looks great but it’s also pretty flat. Hunter Greene is eerily similar. Am I wrong?
Note. This has nothing to do with where he deserves to be pitching. He’s objectively better than many MLB pitchers, including starters now.
Skenes was lights out at LSU like Aaron Nola was.
He will pitch well for the Pirates.