Home U.S. Coin Forum

Interesting Market Observation

ms71ms71 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited February 11, 2024 8:25AM in U.S. Coin Forum

Gerry Fortin's daily blog included this comment today:

What is remarkable about the current sales environment is that U.S. gold is dead. I've not seen this phenomenon before where a substantial product line simply stops selling. One would have expected that with gold stabilizing over $2000/oz, that collectors would be confident in the long term value of the yellow precious metal and would continue accumulations. However, the opposite is taking place with gold being out of favor. If someone has a good explanation, I would certainly like to hear it. My only thesis is that collectors are being impacted by the overall U.S. economic conditions though the equity market continues to roar ahead. Something just does not make sense at the moment.

Successful BST transactions: EagleEye, Christos, Proofmorgan,
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins

Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.

My mind reader refuses to charge me....

Comments

  • ifthevamzarockinifthevamzarockin Posts: 8,478 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At the last show I went to several dealer said they were not buying gold because they expected the spot price to drop soon. ;)

  • coinbufcoinbuf Posts: 10,616 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ifthevamzarockin said:
    At the last show I went to several dealer said they were not buying gold because they expected the spot price to drop soon. ;)

    When was that show?

    My Lincoln Registry
    My Collection of Old Holders

    Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
  • ifthevamzarockinifthevamzarockin Posts: 8,478 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinbuf said:
    When was that show?

    2 weeks ago

  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,746 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Maybe people who have been holding gold for sometime are looking at the plateau of gold prices above $2000 as an opportunity to lighten up on their generic gold and bullion holdings.

    The price compression of coins like MS 63 and MS 64 Saints makes me believe that paying a premium for graded/generic gold is probably not a strategy for benefitting from a rise in gold prices in the future. Of course, future markets may behave differently…


    "There are no called strikes in coin collecting."--Henry David Thoreau RYK
  • Mr_SpudMr_Spud Posts: 4,185 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yay, I might be able to get some more of the gold coins I need for my type sets without going broke 😎

    Mr_Spud

  • DisneyFanDisneyFan Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The GOLD ETF has had a negative effect on the market for all gold coins.

  • erwindocerwindoc Posts: 4,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold is an expensive material. I bought more of it when it was cheaper and it doesnt matter to me if the price has been stable for a while. I will try to buy better dated material now, saving the common dates that are more tied to bullion pricing when/if the price drops.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,278 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Metal of Kings has been money for 6,000+ years, I don't expect that is expected to change..

    I've bought at $300 and I've bought at $2000. I'll continue buying now but I will admit I did slow down the past several years not due to spot price but due to increased premiums. Premiums are continuing to drop, buyers will be back once they become realistic and we will be buying even more. Guaranteed. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,227 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ifthevamzarockin said:
    At the last show I went to several dealer said they were not buying gold because they expected the spot price to drop soon. ;)

    Sounds bullish enough to me!

    Tempus fugit.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,012 ✭✭✭✭✭

    on the weekends the hedging services are closed. if they are worried about a drop on monday, then it's not a surprise they don't buy.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,824 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ms71 said:
    Gerry Fortin's daily blog included this comment today:

    What is remarkable about the current sales environment is that U.S. gold is dead.

    U.S gold is dead? Are we talking about generics, or about the entire U.S. gold market? Because if legitimately rare U.S. gold is dead, it's news to me.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,575 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I got a lot of people in my area, cashing out of gold.

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 11, 2024 8:12PM

    Generic gold is dead, OK I can believe that is true. The generic gold historically high premiums could not hold up to supply and demand......not a shocker.

    Crypto is the speculative asset du jour.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,012 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the flood from europe made generic more generic

    if generic isn't selling, then i'm asking 1) what's the premium and 2) are age's selling

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • yosclimberyosclimber Posts: 4,542 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 12, 2024 3:36AM

    The rough title for Gerry's Monday blog
    "The Fairmont gorilla in the room..."
    suggests that uncertainty about the size and effects of the Fairmont Collection/Hoard
    might be the reason that collectors have paused their gold buying.
    https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/27/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-i-the-pedigreed-fairmonts
    https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/DailyBlog.htm

  • logger7logger7 Posts: 7,938 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We go through these periodic lulls and general market stagnation; also its tax season so market uncertainty and conservatism is as much to blame. But every collector with cash to spend is looking for a deal.

  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,343 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @yosclimber said:
    The rough title for Gerry's Monday blog
    "The Fairmont gorilla in the room..."
    suggests that uncertainty about the size and effects of the Fairmont Collection/Hoard
    might be the reason that collectors have paused their gold buying.
    https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/27/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-i-the-pedigreed-fairmonts
    https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/DailyBlog.htm

    But isn’t the Fairmont hoard is selling though quite well, that would speak to an acceleration of the market. Now if individual dealers are squeezed out due to lack of access or reselling opportunities that isn’t necessarily A condemnation of the market. It was a lot of gold seeking a finite number of collector and dealer dollars.

  • Project NumismaticsProject Numismatics Posts: 1,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Crypto said:

    @yosclimber said:
    The rough title for Gerry's Monday blog
    "The Fairmont gorilla in the room..."
    suggests that uncertainty about the size and effects of the Fairmont Collection/Hoard
    might be the reason that collectors have paused their gold buying.
    https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/27/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-i-the-pedigreed-fairmonts
    https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/DailyBlog.htm

    But isn’t the Fairmont hoard is selling though quite well, that would speak to an acceleration of the market. Now if individual dealers are squeezed out due to lack of access or reselling opportunities that isn’t necessarily A condemnation of the market. It was a lot of gold seeking a finite number of collector and dealer dollars.

    I read the blog entry as more reflective of GFRC’s particular circumstances rather than the market for Fairmont quality gold. Every Fairmont coin I’ve chased at Stack’s has been bid up to full retail value. A few slip through the cracks and they usually appear quickly on sites like Doug Winter’s for a modest markup and seem to sell very quickly.

    I just can’t agree with Gerry on this one.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,817 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 16, 2024 6:31AM

    I don’t think Gerry Fortin is a market maker to the point where his observations carry to the whole gold market. Now if this were APMex or Kevin Lipton I’d listen more closely.

    If Gerry said that Seated Dimes were dead I’d listen.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,824 ✭✭✭✭✭

    On the other hand, the rare gold market is not immune to two forces that have been taking a much wider toll for quite a while now: higher interest rates, and waning support for slabs that are less than solid for the grade.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • knovak1976knovak1976 Posts: 200 ✭✭✭

    I’ve listened to “experts” on the economy, oil prices, home prices, precious metal prices, crypto, and everything else ….and some are right and most are wrong. Where was that horrible, horrible, recession all the experts predicted a year ago? Watch those goofy ads on TV touting if you had $100 worth of gold in 1954 what it would be worth now…..People will believe whatever their minds want them to believe…but it’s reality that wins in the end. Scarcity means something for SOME coins, but very few. How scarce is the 1995W ASE (mintage 30,000)? Now how scarce is the V75 Gold Eagle (mintage 1945) in comparison? Yet the prices barely correlate in relation to the number struck…. People see and think what they want to see and think…and sometimes not even facts will change their minds. 😉

  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Doug Winter has an interesting take on Fairmont. If I read it correctly he figures there were 400,000 coins in the hoard. That takes a lot of collectors to digest that many gold coins.

  • retirednowretirednow Posts: 441 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pcgscacgold said:
    Doug Winter has an interesting take on Fairmont. If I read it correctly he figures there were 400,000 coins in the hoard. That takes a lot of collectors to digest that many gold coins.

    Did I read your note right ... 400,000 pieces -that is unbelievable wow

  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @retirednow said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    Doug Winter has an interesting take on Fairmont. If I read it correctly he figures there were 400,000 coins in the hoard. That takes a lot of collectors to digest that many gold coins.

    Did I read your note right ... 400,000 pieces -that is unbelievable wow

    If I read his article correctly, that’s his approximation.

  • jesbrokenjesbroken Posts: 8,998 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There might be a reason for this but I would be banned for saying.
    Jim


    When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln

    Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file