Interesting Market Observation
ms71
Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭✭✭
Gerry Fortin's daily blog included this comment today:
What is remarkable about the current sales environment is that U.S. gold is dead. I've not seen this phenomenon before where a substantial product line simply stops selling. One would have expected that with gold stabilizing over $2000/oz, that collectors would be confident in the long term value of the yellow precious metal and would continue accumulations. However, the opposite is taking place with gold being out of favor. If someone has a good explanation, I would certainly like to hear it. My only thesis is that collectors are being impacted by the overall U.S. economic conditions though the equity market continues to roar ahead. Something just does not make sense at the moment.
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
1
Comments
At the last show I went to several dealer said they were not buying gold because they expected the spot price to drop soon.
When was that show?
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
2 weeks ago
Maybe people who have been holding gold for sometime are looking at the plateau of gold prices above $2000 as an opportunity to lighten up on their generic gold and bullion holdings.
The price compression of coins like MS 63 and MS 64 Saints makes me believe that paying a premium for graded/generic gold is probably not a strategy for benefitting from a rise in gold prices in the future. Of course, future markets may behave differently…
Yay, I might be able to get some more of the gold coins I need for my type sets without going broke 😎
Mr_Spud
Gold collecting has always been three categories
-gold stackers paying as little over melt as possible
-type collectors / key date collectors (individual coins)
-whales chasing sets and top pops
Most of the dates were aligned with type prices even if their rarity was disconnected from the common dates. And circulated gold was almost always hard to sell outside the stacking market. There was a time I bought XF 1908s eagles for near melt all day long along with low end UNCs of common dates. This is no longer the case and I suspect where the problems start.
The market driven by TPGs and pop reports has broken down date Fidelity as if there was a massive market for set collectors that simply isn’t there. Gerry is a date dealer and with 2000$ gold, the number of type coin seekers will shrink leaving stackers and whales which his inventory doesn’t support. If he carefully bought graded gold near melt and special branch mint coins and the like I suspect there would still be a robust market.
What I suspect is the market’s individual date recognition tolerance has reverted back a degree or two closer to historical norms due to the prohibitive costs of the genre and the lack of collector base. There is also might be a little target audience thing going on with Mr Seateddime man and the collector/ customer base he has built up over the decades, does anyone think gold when they think of him? Do the gold bugs run back to the collector club table area of the convention floor far away from the winter, daltons or Kagin?
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
The GOLD ETF has had a negative effect on the market for all gold coins.
Gold is an expensive material. I bought more of it when it was cheaper and it doesnt matter to me if the price has been stable for a while. I will try to buy better dated material now, saving the common dates that are more tied to bullion pricing when/if the price drops.
The Metal of Kings has been money for 6,000+ years, I don't expect that is expected to change..
I've bought at $300 and I've bought at $2000. I'll continue buying now but I will admit I did slow down the past several years not due to spot price but due to increased premiums. Premiums are continuing to drop, buyers will be back once they become realistic and we will be buying even more. Guaranteed. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Sounds bullish enough to me!
on the weekends the hedging services are closed. if they are worried about a drop on monday, then it's not a surprise they don't buy.
U.S gold is dead? Are we talking about generics, or about the entire U.S. gold market? Because if legitimately rare U.S. gold is dead, it's news to me.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I got a lot of people in my area, cashing out of gold.
Generic gold is dead, OK I can believe that is true. The generic gold historically high premiums could not hold up to supply and demand......not a shocker.
Crypto is the speculative asset du jour.
Leave me out of this
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
the flood from europe made generic more generic
if generic isn't selling, then i'm asking 1) what's the premium and 2) are age's selling
The rough title for Gerry's Monday blog
"The Fairmont gorilla in the room..."
suggests that uncertainty about the size and effects of the Fairmont Collection/Hoard
might be the reason that collectors have paused their gold buying.
https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/27/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-i-the-pedigreed-fairmonts
https://www.seateddimevarieties.com/DailyBlog.htm
We go through these periodic lulls and general market stagnation; also its tax season so market uncertainty and conservatism is as much to blame. But every collector with cash to spend is looking for a deal.
But isn’t the Fairmont hoard is selling though quite well, that would speak to an acceleration of the market. Now if individual dealers are squeezed out due to lack of access or reselling opportunities that isn’t necessarily A condemnation of the market. It was a lot of gold seeking a finite number of collector and dealer dollars.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I read the blog entry as more reflective of GFRC’s particular circumstances rather than the market for Fairmont quality gold. Every Fairmont coin I’ve chased at Stack’s has been bid up to full retail value. A few slip through the cracks and they usually appear quickly on sites like Doug Winter’s for a modest markup and seem to sell very quickly.
I just can’t agree with Gerry on this one.
I don’t think Gerry Fortin is a market maker to the point where his observations carry to the whole gold market. Now if this were APMex or Kevin Lipton I’d listen more closely.
If Gerry said that Seated Dimes were dead I’d listen.
Latin American Collection
On the other hand, the rare gold market is not immune to two forces that have been taking a much wider toll for quite a while now: higher interest rates, and waning support for slabs that are less than solid for the grade.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I’ve listened to “experts” on the economy, oil prices, home prices, precious metal prices, crypto, and everything else ….and some are right and most are wrong. Where was that horrible, horrible, recession all the experts predicted a year ago? Watch those goofy ads on TV touting if you had $100 worth of gold in 1954 what it would be worth now…..People will believe whatever their minds want them to believe…but it’s reality that wins in the end. Scarcity means something for SOME coins, but very few. How scarce is the 1995W ASE (mintage 30,000)? Now how scarce is the V75 Gold Eagle (mintage 1945) in comparison? Yet the prices barely correlate in relation to the number struck…. People see and think what they want to see and think…and sometimes not even facts will change their minds. 😉
Doug Winter has an interesting take on Fairmont. If I read it correctly he figures there were 400,000 coins in the hoard. That takes a lot of collectors to digest that many gold coins.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
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Did I read your note right ... 400,000 pieces -that is unbelievable wow
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If I read his article correctly, that’s his approximation.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
We are able to pickup common date 20$ Liberty's under 2100 right now in p62/n62.
St Gaudens 63/64 premiums are gone. You are able to buy both at or back of spot.
The issue with the Fairmont hoard ia not what Stacks is auctioning it is all the gold being cleared through large dealers that did not auction: both pedigreed and not. It appears the damaged coins and ciins that may not be "all there" are going through a group of dealers with the higher end stuff being auctioned.
If you are wondering what coins... go through most recent Fairmont auction and look for gaps in label #. Then look up those label numbers with PCGS verify and you will see the low end stuff hitting the market.
The other issue that seems to be developing is the inconsistencies thta exist with CAC. Their "tightening" has caused uncertainty amongst some people.
There might be a reason for this but I would be banned for saying.
Jim
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