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The case for $10,000 gold. . .

derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited January 20, 2024 11:33PM in Precious Metals

By the end of the decade.

But, you won't be rich. You will simply break even. The dollars you spent on gold will not have been destroyed by inflation. Your dollars in the bank? Well, they will not fare so well.

Another central banker admits the truth about the US dollar

"Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

Comments

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    While I am a major fan, I must confess $10K for the metal of kings seems a bit excessive at this point. $5K seems more realistic. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Point being that inflation (led by money printing to finance growing US debt) will determine gold's future. As If have often preached, gold is dollar protection.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭✭

    Even if the underlying scenarios posited come true, I doubt gold would rise that much on them.

    I think $3,000 by 2030 based on supply and demand fundamentals is defendable, $5,000 by 2035 plausible. Those are my "predictions."

    This seems more like click-bait. :)

  • pmbugpmbug Posts: 39
    edited January 21, 2024 10:21AM

    What's the over/under on the timing of the thread making the case for $100k/oz gold? Go big or go home!

    Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,299 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There would have to be a big shtf scenario for 10k i'd think.

  • rte592rte592 Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So your saying the more nuggets I pull out of the ground the better the ROI.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DrBuster said:
    There would have to be a big shtf scenario for 10k i'd think.

    FED printing more to cover loss of private buyers of debt is gonna make inflation a shtf scenario. When private/foreign investors by the debt they do it with existing money with no effect on inflation. When the FED buys they do it with newly printed money (inflation of money supply causes price inflation).

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Private investors absolutely love US debt and will buy, buy, buy, just as they have, have and are doing, doing, doing.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,557 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Private investors absolutely love US debt and will buy, buy, buy, just as they have, have and are doing, doing, doing.

    Until they stop. A change in sentiment can happen fast.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 6:38AM

    A growing diversion of the copper/gold raio

    "For those still undecided on the trajectory of interest rates, the historical reliability of the copper/gold ratio suggests a strong signal—a downward trajectory (interest rates) in the coming year. An outcome that is likely to align with a response to the next significant economic disaster.

    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 7:15AM

    @Goldminers said:
    Until they stop. A change in sentiment can happen fast.

    A "buyers strike" like what happened in late-2022 with the UK and the Truss Government COULD happen. My friend, an ex-bond trader, has speculated about it for years (decades probably :D ).

    But it would mean a HUGE increase in other countries' exchange rates and kill their export market. These countries go nuts over a 5% rise in their currency over a few months...imagine a 20-30% boost within days ?

    These apocalpytic forecasts are really uninvestable predictions because the underlying variables would shift so much as to make it useless to try and invest along the guidelines they prescribe. The U.S. economy MAY have inflation or monetary problems but if they do they will take DECADES to play out and none of us will be around to see it.

    I would remind all of you that Greece -- a tiny, 3rd-rate economy largely dependent on tourism -- took 30 years to hit the fan from the time they embraced Socialism (about 1981). Italy, once again hanging by a thread in the EU and Euro, has been mismanaged since WW II.

    Now....if those countries hung on that long, do you REALLY think the U.S. is headed for these economic, financial, or monetary apocalpyses predicted by the doomsayers ?

    Anybody can talk. Walk the walk. Tell these guys to tell us how they have managed money and how THEY have navigated the markets the last few years, the last decade or so.

    Didn't think so. :D

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    A growing diversion of the copper/gold raio
    "For those still undecided on the trajectory of interest rates, the historical reliability of the copper/gold ratio suggests a strong signal—a downward trajectory (interest rates) in the coming year. An outcome that is likely to align with a response to the next significant economic disaster.
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Do you REALLY think that the folks who buy and sell Treasury bonds are looking at the ratio of 2 hyper-volatile metal prices ? :D

    I used to trade bonds and manage huge portfolios. The copper/gold ratio would have been about 38th on my list of items to consider, after the Designated Hitter and that week's Lottery numbers. :D

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 7:29AM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    A growing diversion of the copper/gold raio
    "For those still undecided on the trajectory of interest rates, the historical reliability of the copper/gold ratio suggests a strong signal—a downward trajectory (interest rates) in the coming year. An outcome that is likely to align with a response to the next significant economic disaster.
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Do you REALLY think that the folks who buy and sell Treasury bonds are looking at the ratio of 2 hyper-volatile metal prices ? :D

    I used to trade bonds and manage huge portfolios. The copper/gold ratio would have been about 38th on my list of items to consider, after the Designated Hitter and that week's Lottery numbers. :D

    I simply pointed out that copper/gold ratio offers us a signal as to what is going to happen. If I was to buy bonds I would certainly welcome the info it offers.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2024 6:41AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.

    so, you seek bonds that are currently more attractive?

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.

    so, you seek bonds that are currently more attractive?

    Nope....I seek those that pay the most for similar quality and term.

    I save my attraction for submariners. ;)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,878 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2024 11:51AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.

    so, you seek bonds that are currently more attractive?

    Nope....I seek those that pay the most for similar quality and term.

    I save my attraction for submariners. ;)

    .

    I knew it !
    You like your investments "underwater".

    .

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.

    Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.

    so, you seek bonds that are currently more attractive?

    Nope....I seek those that pay the most for similar quality and term.

    I save my attraction for submariners. ;)

    .

    I knew it !
    You like your investments "underwater".

    .

    Isn't that where everyone's PMs are....after their boating accident?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Peter89Peter89 Posts: 54 ✭✭

    For me the best case for $10k is this

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,008 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 24, 2024 3:03AM

    @Peter89 said:
    For me the best case for $10k is this

    chart indicates that since 1980 the FED has succeeded in destroying the dollar at a slow, controlled pace, mostly unnoticed by the conditioned sheeple. That's about to change as a growing increase in the need for debt (spending) and the interest needed to finance it in the face of decreasing private money to finance it (bonds) can only answered by the FED printing money like never before.

    Those that shrug this threat off do in fact know the avalanche is coming. Their lack of concern shown is because they don't believe it will happen in their lifetime and are overlooking the security of their children's future.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,488 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Those that shrug this threat off do in fact know the avalanche is coming. Their lack of concern shown is because they don't believe it will happen in their lifetime and are overlooking the security of their children's future.

    Not only a great trader, but a clairvoyant and mind-reader!!

    Knowledge conquers fear.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,878 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Knowledge conquers fear.

    .

    A person can also avoid fear by staying dismissive, ignorant, and oblivious.

    .

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Perhaps they believe that they are somehow insulated from the effects of their own corruption & mismanagement.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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