The case for $10,000 gold. . .
derryb
Posts: 36,775 ✭✭✭✭✭
But, you won't be rich. You will simply break even. The dollars you spent on gold will not have been destroyed by inflation. Your dollars in the bank? Well, they will not fare so well.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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While I am a major fan, I must confess $10K for the metal of kings seems a bit excessive at this point. $5K seems more realistic. RGDS!
Point being that inflation (led by money printing to finance growing US debt) will determine gold's future. As If have often preached, gold is dollar protection.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Even if the underlying scenarios posited come true, I doubt gold would rise that much on them.
I think $3,000 by 2030 based on supply and demand fundamentals is defendable, $5,000 by 2035 plausible. Those are my "predictions."
This seems more like click-bait.
What's the over/under on the timing of the thread making the case for $100k/oz gold? Go big or go home!
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
There would have to be a big shtf scenario for 10k i'd think.
So your saying the more nuggets I pull out of the ground the better the ROI.
FED printing more to cover loss of private buyers of debt is gonna make inflation a shtf scenario. When private/foreign investors by the debt they do it with existing money with no effect on inflation. When the FED buys they do it with newly printed money (inflation of money supply causes price inflation).
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Private investors absolutely love US debt and will buy, buy, buy, just as they have, have and are doing, doing, doing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Until they stop. A change in sentiment can happen fast.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
A growing diversion of the copper/gold raio
"For those still undecided on the trajectory of interest rates, the historical reliability of the copper/gold ratio suggests a strong signal—a downward trajectory (interest rates) in the coming year. An outcome that is likely to align with a response to the next significant economic disaster.
According to Investopia: Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing lower-yielding bonds less attractive, which decreases their prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
A "buyers strike" like what happened in late-2022 with the UK and the Truss Government COULD happen. My friend, an ex-bond trader, has speculated about it for years (decades probably ).
But it would mean a HUGE increase in other countries' exchange rates and kill their export market. These countries go nuts over a 5% rise in their currency over a few months...imagine a 20-30% boost within days ?
These apocalpytic forecasts are really uninvestable predictions because the underlying variables would shift so much as to make it useless to try and invest along the guidelines they prescribe. The U.S. economy MAY have inflation or monetary problems but if they do they will take DECADES to play out and none of us will be around to see it.
I would remind all of you that Greece -- a tiny, 3rd-rate economy largely dependent on tourism -- took 30 years to hit the fan from the time they embraced Socialism (about 1981). Italy, once again hanging by a thread in the EU and Euro, has been mismanaged since WW II.
Now....if those countries hung on that long, do you REALLY think the U.S. is headed for these economic, financial, or monetary apocalpyses predicted by the doomsayers ?
Anybody can talk. Walk the walk. Tell these guys to tell us how they have managed money and how THEY have navigated the markets the last few years, the last decade or so.
Didn't think so.
Do you REALLY think that the folks who buy and sell Treasury bonds are looking at the ratio of 2 hyper-volatile metal prices ?
I used to trade bonds and manage huge portfolios. The copper/gold ratio would have been about 38th on my list of items to consider, after the Designated Hitter and that week's Lottery numbers.
I simply pointed out that copper/gold ratio offers us a signal as to what is going to happen. If I was to buy bonds I would certainly welcome the info it offers.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Lol. They are not more or less "attractive". Their price simply adjusts to match current rates. I frequently seek find bonds that trade at a discount to par as there is usually opportunity to secure yield to maturity that is greater than current yields. Also their convexity is lower which means their price is less susceptible to higher rates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
so, you seek bonds that are currently more attractive?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Nope....I seek those that pay the most for similar quality and term.
I save my attraction for submariners.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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I knew it !
You like your investments "underwater".
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Isn't that where everyone's PMs are....after their boating accident?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For me the best case for $10k is this
chart indicates that since 1980 the FED has succeeded in destroying the dollar at a slow, controlled pace, mostly unnoticed by the conditioned sheeple. That's about to change as a growing increase in the need for debt (spending) and the interest needed to finance it in the face of decreasing private money to finance it (bonds) can only answered by the FED printing money like never before.
Those that shrug this threat off do in fact know the avalanche is coming. Their lack of concern shown is because they don't believe it will happen in their lifetime and are overlooking the security of their children's future.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not only a great trader, but a clairvoyant and mind-reader!!
Knowledge conquers fear.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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A person can also avoid fear by staying dismissive, ignorant, and oblivious.
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Perhaps they believe that they are somehow insulated from the effects of their own corruption & mismanagement.
I knew it would happen.
The idea of $10,000 gold is attractive. With all the economic uncertainty and inflation, people are looking for safe places to spend money. Gold has always been a solid choice for that. Its value holds up well when the market is shaky. Plus, as more people realize this, demand could increase prices.
I’ve read that some experts believe gold could hit those lofty heights in the coming years. It might sound wild, but who knows if things keep going the way they are? If you're curious about the gold investment, it might be worth checking out different perspectives and exploring options. You can find more info at explorejapannow.com.
That is a great looking antique love seat and welcome to the forum. I recommend avoiding silver discussions for your peace of mind. Those discussions end up in the gutter most of the time.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I remember two famous predictions from my personal history.
One, way back in 2000 when I bought a 10 ounce bar for around $3000 and at a Christmas party as I told my uncle (who was in the mining industry all his life and the mine was a gold mine!!) answered me "Tony, you will NEVER see gold go above $450 an ounce".
Then in 2006, I was golfing and was joined with three bankers and investment people (who were older than me and had experienced the 1970-1980 run-up in gold) and at the time gold was around $700 an ounce and as we were talking things over (about gold and inflation), I said "I have no doubt gold will very soon reach $1000 and beyond"..... I'll never forget almost in unison, all three of them shook their heads, chuckled and giggled and said 'not a snowball's chance in heck".
My point is, people focus way too much on the dollar number.
I hope we all know when the price of gold increases, the gold price does not 'go up' but rather, it's the value of the dollar that is going down (in the long term).
Trusting and thinking this way, why isn't it possible that gold could reach such great heights as 10K or 20K an ounce, when the dollar has lost almost all of it's value since the early 1900's.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
While most of the world's central banks are reducing dollars and adding gold, the US central bank is not buying gold. In fact it no longer owns any gold.
What happened to the FED's gold?
A fast approaching “Minsky Moment" (a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash) will send gold and silver prices ballistic.
According to data compiled by the Atlantic Council "as of 2002, dollars accounted for 72 percent of global reserves. Today, dollars make up about 58 percent of reserves." And, "since 2018, all members of BRICS have increased their gold holdings at a faster rate than the rest of the world."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
the dollar may actually crash in a few years or hyperinflate, and the goverment gets to pay the debt off pennies on the dollar
US has no intention of paying off its debt. It will simply print money to pay the interest on that debt until the music stops.
The dollar is and has been in a "controlled" slow motion crash for decades. If change occurs slow enough, the masses quietly accept it, adapt to it and move on. A rapid, unexpected paradigm shift, such as a sudden default or addition of zeros to the currency (Zimbabwe) is an unacceptable game changer to the masses and will be avoided as long as possible by the US.
Nothing backs ours dollars except faith - faith in its issuer and faith that the next person will accept it as payment. As its buying power dwindles so does that faith. Look to the price of gold as a barometer of that faith.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yawn. The dollar isn't going anywhere. Your destruction of America fantasy will have to remain just that. THKS!
A prime example of "If change occurs slow enough, the masses quietly accept it, adapt to it and move on."
There’s a well-known old fable that describes a frog being boiled alive. It states that if a frog is dropped in boiling water, it will hop out. But if it’s placed in lukewarm water, it will be comfortable. Then, if the heat is turned up slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be boiled to death. Maybe you should check the water temperature before it's too late.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Excellent. Imagine how many more dollars we would have to create to satisfy the demands of a growing world economy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The world economy is in the toilet. It just hasn't been flushed yet.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Take those big ole blinders off your grape brother. Turn off the communist propaganda, exit the bunker and get yourself some fresh air. Take a look around, it's a beautiful world out here and the economy is absolutely BOOMIN! RGDS!!
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If that is really what you think then you should sell all your gold now and move on.
If things are so great, why do you own gold ?
Or perhaps a better point to make is that the price of gold is measurement of the health of economies and currencies.
A record gold price is a clue that something isn't going so well.
PS:
It is hard to get "fresh air" with your head buried in the sand. KABOOMIN !
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The metal of kings has hit record highs thousands of times throughout recorded history. Guess what? We the people are still here.
The price of dingleberries is sitting at record highs. Should I start praying for the end of the world with all the other doomsday nuts?
Why own gold? Ever hear of a thing called diversification? RGDS!
Seems the trend in global GDP is up, up, up....
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/gdp-per-capita
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes, according to the link you provided. However, there is a sentence in the article that might be important:
"Data are in current U.S. dollars."
What that makes me question is ..... isn't the increase shown then due/subject to effects of inflation? If production was stagnant, or even declining, wouldn't the GDP chart still show an increase if the stagnant production was being valued in inflated dollars? I suspect if one took the chart at the link you provided, and compared to rates of inflation (true rates of inflation, and not messaged numbers), could be interesting.
Just curious. I'm always tend to question statistics and look for the underlying fine print and the man behind the curtain.
Meanwhile, gold stilling climbing to new highs (priced in U.S. dollars). Even silver may be catching another breath. Summer doldrums over? Weakening dollar? A fluke? Beats me.... I'll let the experts figure out the reason.
@tincup
Give a listen to Vince Lanci's daily post on youtube. Good technical analyst.
I knew it would happen.
so is the trend in homelessness, price inflation and the number of those living in poverty.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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If you have gold for "diversification", you must have an inkling that all is not rosy out there. Otherwise, you would have no need for it. As always, you mistake warnings about financial conditions as "praying for the end of the world". If the world literally ends, there is no value for gold because there is nobody left to value it. Are you that misguided that you think gold aficionados want the price of gold to go to zero ?
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Just like the trend in the number of people not living in pverty.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Contrary to your beliefs there are actually people in this world that hold the metal of kings for reasons other than thinking the country/financial system is about to collapse. Perhaps you have been spending too much time in Derryb's bunker becoming brainwashed by the King Newz / Bulgaria Hedge articles? I beg you to exit, step outside and experience the world. It's beautiful and BOOMIN place out here. RGDS!
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This is a coin collecting website. And yet, you think it is "contrary to my beliefs" for someone to collect gold coins for reasons other than a pending collapse ? You need to think this through.
You own gold. You could be selling it all now at a profit. But you aren't. So you apparently lack confidence in the future strength and purchasing power of the Dollar ?
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I am sorry that you cannot seem to grasp the concept of diversification.
Perhaps one buys gold so they can simply transfer wealth to their heirs without taking a tax hit? Perhaps one buys gold because they are coin collectors, and they enjoy accumulating beautiful historic pre-33 Double Eagles?
It doesn't always have to be about doom and gloom end of the world, country, dollar BS. THKS!
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Admit it.
On some level deep down you agree, just a little bit, with the possibility of "doom and gloom" scenarios.
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Having insurance is not a bad thing and I consider myself fortunate to have a decent "policy". However, I don't pay it much mind in relation to the possibility of doom and gloom scenarios. Guess I prefer to move forward instead of backwards. A bit ironic because it's the very thing the current state of politics seems to be trying to use to divide us. We used to all "mostly" be on the same team, perhaps one day as far-fetched as it seems we will come together again. SEMPER!
Perhaps one buys gold so they can simply transfer wealth to their heirs without taking a tax hit?
Surely, you aren’t advocating cheating Uncle Sam out of his tax revenues when your heirs have a cost basis of zero?
I knew it would happen.
Not at all. I gladly pay my fair share and more. It's a shame most of the worthless rich scum sucking parasites don't feel the same. THKS!