No. Accusations are based on what we all observed in the earlier rounds. We all get to choose whether to believe you, various promoters, or our own lying eyes.
The absence of government oversight and regulation, or independent third party supervision and certification of distribution, not merely the grading of coins and packing of boxes, only feeds the distrust and further forms the basis of accusations, questions, etc. It's not nothing.
Yes, someone will pull each of the winners. But, if members of the general public literally have a 0.0% chance, rather than the 1 in whatever advertised chance, that actually would be fraud, even if it would be impossible to prove given how they are running their lottery. This is why prudent, skeptical people stay away and limit their thrill seeking to regulated, supervised games of chance.
@mattniss said:
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
4 of the boxes were worth $350 or less
2 were worth around $500 - $650
2 were worth around $700 - $850
1 was worth around $1300 (about retail)
1 was worth around $1800
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
I watched the same stream. Then after that one I watched some of another popular stream. The second one was starting the boxes at $1249 opening bid. Watched one person buy several boxes at issue price. A few sold for more. Wasn’t paying full attention, but saw 3 red cores. One Saint. Think it was 1913? Saw an MS67 Morgan in a box with a RP peace in 70 and a proof 1/10 gold. Buyer was another streamer and gave away the two black cores. Also saw a large gold nugget, but by that time I had the sound off.
Lots of sales were at issue price or barely above.
Heard one streamer say break even on the boxes for them was $1361. Saw very few sell for above that on his stream. Can’t imagine they lost money on virtually every box and were that happy about selling them. Gotta be more to it. Wholesale deal? Maybe vaultbox compensates them some other way. Maybe it’s worth it for the big streamers to have that much traffic. Who knows.
Whatnot was advertising the vaultbox breaks on certain streams and the streamers had to have their shows start and end at certain times to clear the way for the next show. So there was some kind of coordinated effort by whatnot to get these out. I assume these streamers are given an allotment of available early purchase just like the mint does for bulk purchasers.
@Che_Grapes said:
It’s like the casino - if you make a bet because your life and financial situation depend on it - you will lose for sure!
On the other hand, if you have the money to spare and it doesn’t matter to you if you win or lose, well that’s the one who will get the 07 high relief or other valuable red core coins.
For sure there will be the big winner,but at the expense of all the losers who propped up the top prize. Just like the lottery. At casinos you are not beating them or winning the casinos money. You are winning the dollars lost by the people sitting next to you. The house takes their dollars/cut off the top, the same as in horse racing wagering as well. So the house never cares who wins. They have already made their money via their takeout.
For those that engage in these activities has no relevance either way to me.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@Che_Grapes said:
It’s like the casino - if you make a bet because your life and financial situation depend on it - you will lose for sure!
On the other hand, if you have the money to spare and it doesn’t matter to you if you win or lose, well that’s the one who will get the 07 high relief or other valuable red core coins.
For sure there will be the big winner,but at the expense of all the losers who propped up the top prize. Just like the lottery. At casinos you are not beating them or winning the casinos money. You are winning the dollars lost by the people sitting next to you. The house takes their dollars/cut off the top, the same as in horse racing wagering as well. So the house never cares who wins. They have already made their money via their takeout.
For those that engage in these activities has no relevance either way to me.
Correct, but that assumes regulated, supervised games. Take the Casino Control Commission, or the Racing Commission, or the SEC in the stock market, out of the equation, and all sorts of things can happen regarding determining who the winners and losers are.
Since many of the players are VB marketing partners, it's a terrible analogy, since, in this case, the house does actually have an interest in seeing certain players win, at the expense of those it doesn't have a relationship with. @bigjpst's observation of a streamer pulling a red core for himself during a stream is a perfect example. It's all meant to get people excited, while distracting them from the fact that winners are going to related parties.
The fact that people are not bothered by this is why VB is so successful. As others have said about fools and their money. Whatever. I'm just thrilled that all the buyers are so thrilled.
I am curious. Where does VB buy the inserted coinage from? Those dealers/collectors must be happy for the success of the VB venture. Are they overpaying?
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I am curious. Where does VB buy the inserted coinage from? Those dealers/collectors must be happy for the success of the VB venture. Are they overpaying?
They are affiliated with a large, well known dealer. I assure you that they are buying inventory at or below wholesale, and have no need to overpay for anything. Do you think the people supplying the TV guys are overpaid for their wares, just because they are resold to the public at inflated prices?
I'm sure everyone in the supply chain is happy with the success of the product, and they are all making money, but that is not a reason for a marketing company to overpay for inventory.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
So, all the "influencers got the hits" isn't true then.
Never was, and no one said it was.
I'm sure some common folk get some winners. I'm equally sure some insiders we never hear or see also win.
The point is simply that if they can steer some winners to some influencers, they can control what goes where, notwithstanding the fact that NGC is sealing boxes before forwarding them to VB for distribution to its partners and to the public.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
So, all the "influencers got the hits" isn't true then.
Never was, and no one said it was.
I'm sure some common folk get some winners. I'm equally sure some insiders we never hear or see also win.
The point is simply that if they can steer some winners to some influencers, they can control what goes where, notwithstanding the fact that NGC is sealing boxes before forwarding them to VB for distribution to its partners and to the public.
Is that actually happening though? BTW, I don't care about Vaultbox one way or the other. I'm just curious if all the (fraud, unethical, etc.) talk has any merit or if it's just detractors making accusations because they don't like the product.
@bigjpst's observation of a streamer pulling a red core for himself during a stream is a perfect example. It's all meant to get people excited, while distracting them from the fact that winners are going to related parties.
To be clear, the person doing the live stream did not open their own box. Another streamer bid and won the box that was opened live. Actually, several of the “popular” streamers actively bid in these vaultbox breaks.
I’m not saying they do this to help prop up interest, but it does seem a bit like that. Whatnot is still a relatively small community of dealers and sellers. Most of the major players have been on a while and work together quite a bit on streams.
There does also seem to be a large number of people who regularly spend a ton of money on mystery games, so I think that may be why these seem to do so well on there.
And actually the TV show buyers that I’ve dealt with in the past usually pay strong money for the coins they need. Several used to walk Long Beach when I used to setup and if you had what they needed on their buy list, they didn’t beat you up on price unless you were way out of line.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
So, all the "influencers got the hits" isn't true then.
Never was, and no one said it was.
I'm sure some common folk get some winners. I'm equally sure some insiders we never hear or see also win.
The point is simply that if they can steer some winners to some influencers, they can control what goes where, notwithstanding the fact that NGC is sealing boxes before forwarding them to VB for distribution to its partners and to the public.
Is that actually happening though? BTW, I don't care about Vaultbox one way or the other. I'm just curious if all the (fraud, unethical, etc.) talk has any merit or if it's just detractors making accusations because they don't like the product.
No one knows. The fact that it's possible because of what we saw with influencers in the beginning is all that is necessary to plant the seed of doubt. The fact independent third parties are involved in packing boxes, but not ultimate distribution of the prizes in a $1,000,000+ lottery is enough for lots of people.
Not really accusations. More like questions with no good answers. Anyone who wants to just hand over $1250 to someone, tell them a number you are thinking of between 1 and 2,000, and then have them tell you what you won is certainly more than free to do so.
But the games they played with the influencers prior to the launch of Series 1 was enough for plenty of people to be uncomfortable with how things are run. Enough so to overcome the FOMO we all experience with things like this and sit on the sidelines criticizing.
Bottom line -- it's not illegal, and I'm not trying to suggest it should be. Fraud is probably too strong a word, because I think they provide enough disclosure to cover themselves.
It's just that if you carefully read all the disclosures with a critical eye, and block out the carnival-like hype associated with their e-mails and social media campaigns, it's just an expensive way to get a cheap thrill from breaking open a mystery box, with no independent oversight over how valuable prizes are distributed.
Kind of like a casino in the old Wild West, rather than a modern, highly regulated one. Do you feel lucky? If so, place your bets.
I would call NGC’s involvement more of a corroboration than independent third party. I received 3 emails from NGC announcing their “partner’s” upcoming VB5 release, just as I did with prior releases. Maybe the marketing was part of the service NGC provided in addition to the grading and boxing.
The Philadelphia Mint: making coins since 1792. We make money by making money. Now in our 225th year thanks to no competition.
@PhillyJoe said:
I would call NGC’s involvement more of a corroboration than independent third party. I received 3 emails from NGC announcing their “partner’s” upcoming VB5 release, just as I did with prior releases. Maybe the marketing was part of the service NGC provided in addition to the grading and boxing.
I'm sure you are right. But NGC IS a trusted TPG, even if they assist with marketing, as does our host with its partners. If boxes were shipped directly from NGC (and we all know they have to capability to handle that), I'd be a lot more confident in the randomization of the distribution.
In that case, there would not be any live auctions, complete with box breaks, on Whatnot one day after release. And influencers wouldn't be pulling valuable coins on or before release day, and then later claiming the breaks were only simulated, and the valuable coins were returned to NGC for reboxing prior to launch.
Well, I missed out on the first series, bought and opened the second, and then bought and sold boxes from the 3rd and 4th series releases. When they announced the 5th Series, I thought the price was way too high. I did wait to decide until the coin distribution list was released, just because I wanted to see what was being offered. As soon as I saw the list, though, I knew it was going to be a no-buy for me. Too many common coins, too many MS69 Silver Eagles...just too much of a risk.
It's definitely gambling. Better than a casino because you know you'll end up with something, likely silver or gold bullion, but the issue is the cost. The fun part is the anticipation, opening the box, seeing if you'll get something amazing. And if you could guarantee that for $1250 per box you were going to at least receive $800-$900 or more in coins, then it might be worth making that gamble. For me the fun would outweigh the loss of $300-$400.
But, the problem is you could get a box with 2 common MS69 Silver Eagles and an MS63 1880-S Morgan, or some proof quarter from the 1950's or an MS-69 1964 Kennedy. Scoring as little as $300 in coins from a $1250 purchase is too much to lose. That's just ugly and sheer greed on the part of the company. Think about it, they could combine those common Silver Eagles in the same box as the lowest possible quality MS-67 1880 or 1881 Morgan and Vaultbox would still make a profit on the box and make the buyer think he'd won some treasure, even if it was only an $800-$900 box in total.
So, no I'm out at that price, unless I can be assured that the worst possible box is only 60%-70% of what I'm paying for the box itself, not 20%-30%.
@Jcc1876 said:
Well, I missed out on the first series, bought and opened the second, and then bought and sold boxes from the 3rd and 4th series releases. When they announced the 5th Series, I thought the price was way too high. I did wait to decide until the coin distribution list was released, just because I wanted to see what was being offered. As soon as I saw the list, though, I knew it was going to be a no-buy for me. Too many common coins, too many MS69 Silver Eagles...just too much of a risk.
It's definitely gambling. Better than a casino because you know you'll end up with something, likely silver or gold bullion, but the issue is the cost. The fun part is the anticipation, opening the box, seeing if you'll get something amazing. And if you could guarantee that for $1250 per box you were going to at least receive $800-$900 or more in coins, then it might be worth making that gamble. For me the fun would outweigh the loss of $300-$400.
But, the problem is you could get a box with 2 common MS69 Silver Eagles and an MS63 1880-S Morgan, or some proof quarter from the 1950's or an MS-69 1964 Kennedy. Scoring as little as $300 in coins from a $1250 purchase is too much to lose. That's just ugly and sheer greed on the part of the company. Think about it, they could combine those common Silver Eagles in the same box as the lowest possible quality MS-67 1880 or 1881 Morgan and Vaultbox would still make a profit on the box and make the buyer think he'd won some treasure, even if it was only an $800-$900 box in total.
So, no I'm out at that price, unless I can be assured that the worst possible box is only 60%-70% of what I'm paying for the box itself, not 20%-30%.
I hear you, but I honestly don't think the greed on the part of the promoters is any greater than in any of the other series. If you can get past the issues I have with distribution, you just need to understand that this is a different game than the other series.
The top prizes are worth a lot more, and that has to be funded somehow. It's certainly not coming out of VB's pocket, so that leaves the buyers. While the average value of a box is probably unchanged from the other rounds, the much higher value concentrated in a few boxes at the top means most boxes will be worth a lower percentage of MSRP than the other rounds.
Combine with the far higher prices, and the far higher population of boxes, and you just have a very different game, appealing to a very different market. Add in the fact that a lot of people apparently buy to flip, and it's not clear what to make of this, since the upside of a flip is very limited when the starting price is $1250.
Nobody should be surprised, with the history of coin and bullion marketplace flim flam and skulduggery plus financial fraud that this type of marketing would appear.
Its tolerated and even encouraged by major stakeholders. Many historically less than savory individuals are still major customers of the big auction houses. What does that tell you?
After reading all these posts my belief is that vault box is like the mega millions, statistically speaking you have the same chances of winning the mega bucks whether you buy a ticket or don’t (basically 0 chances of winning either way) but millions of people still do buy tickets because “you have to be in it to win it”, even though your chances of winning are statistically 0.
VB looks the same to me, you buy a box and probably will lose, but in the back of the mind there is the thought “maybe next one will be me”
@Jcc1876 said:
Think about it, they could combine those common Silver Eagles in the same box as the lowest possible quality MS-67 1880 or 1881 Morgan and Vaultbox would still make a profit on the box and make the buyer think he'd won some treasure, even if it was only an $800-$900 box in total.
I saw several boxes opened that were just that type of combo. First coin was usually a MS69 eagle, 2nd coin was a commem or morgan VAM in 63 - 65ish range, and third coin was an early date S-mint Morgan in 66 or $5 W-mint proof gold in 70 aka 10.0. All together, like $500 - $750 in value and at least one of the buyers was excited because "I got proof gold in 70!".
@Jcc1876 said:
Think about it, they could combine those common Silver Eagles in the same box as the lowest possible quality MS-67 1880 or 1881 Morgan and Vaultbox would still make a profit on the box and make the buyer think he'd won some treasure, even if it was only an $800-$900 box in total.
I saw several boxes opened that were just that type of combo. First coin was usually a MS69 eagle, 2nd coin was a commem or morgan VAM in 63 - 65ish range, and third coin was an early date S-mint Morgan in 66 or $5 W-mint proof gold in 70 aka 10.0. All together, like $500 - $750 in value and at least one of the buyers was excited because "I got proof gold in 70!".
And that's truly the brilliance of VB. Selling people $750 worth of coins for $1250, and having them be happy about it because a coin is shiny and yellow.
Well, that was fun despite FedEx driving me nuts all day. The packaging is high quality but I wish there was a wrapper (like on a pack of baseball cards) to rip open. I inadvertently opened the boxes from lowest value to highest value.
First coin was 1987 ASE in 9.9 and my heart dropped.
Second coin was a 1858-O 50c SS Republic in AU. Interesting but I don't think they are more than a couple of hundred dollars.
Third coin had a little holo seal on the box which the others did not. And immediately my heart started racing. This moment when I fumbled with the seal made the the whole thing worth it. Unfortunately it wasn't anything massive but I'm still ending up in the green.
Buyback offers are $50, $185, and $1500. That seems reasonable. Greysheet for the ASE is $43. I couldn't find a price guide for the shipwreck but I would probably ask $150 if selling it. The greysheet for a non-cameo J-633 is $1350, so this seems about right.
Overall, a lot of fun, although I'm sure I would think differently if I hadn't got a red core.
@lermish said:
Well, that was fun despite FedEx driving me nuts all day. The packaging is high quality but I wish there was a wrapper (like on a pack of baseball cards) to rip open. I inadvertently opened the boxes from lowest value to highest value.
First coin was 1987 ASE in 9.9 and my heart dropped.
Second coin was a 1858-O 50c SS Republic in AU. Interesting but I don't think they are more than a couple of hundred dollars.
Third coin had a little holo seal on the box which the others did not. And immediately my heart started racing. This moment when I fumbled with the seal made the the whole thing worth it. Unfortunately it wasn't anything massive but I'm still ending up in the green.
Buyback offers are $50, $185, and $1500. That seems reasonable. Greysheet for the ASE is $43. I couldn't find a price guide for the shipwreck but I would probably ask $150 if selling it. The greysheet for a non-cameo J-633 is $1350, so this seems about right.
Overall, a lot of fun, although I'm sure I would think differently if I hadn't got a red core.
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!! You definitely lucked out, because they say on average you need to buy a case to get one red core, so you did well, and at least proved that all red cores do not go to insiders.
Still, it's sobering to realize that you only have around a 15% chance to get value for $1250, but I'm truly happy you did not get burned on this. Also, I think your buyback on the ASE is somewhat elevated because they are ascribing a premium to the blue core.
Does anyone else think his might be the beginning of the end for Vaultbox? If the majority of buyers were people looking to flip and those buyers can’t clear a profit after fees then this seems like a hard sell. Maybe they will drop back down to a less expensive product offering.
@jeffas1974 said:
Does anyone else think his might be the beginning of the end for Vaultbox? If the majority of buyers were people looking to flip and those buyers can’t clear a profit after fees then this seems like a hard sell. Maybe they will drop back down to a less expensive product offering.
I'm not sure we know what the percentage of flippers are. There have never been that many on ebay. I don't know how many go into box breaks as I don't really follow those.
@jeffas1974 said:
Does anyone else think his might be the beginning of the end for Vaultbox? If the majority of buyers were people looking to flip and those buyers can’t clear a profit after fees then this seems like a hard sell. Maybe they will drop back down to a less expensive product offering.
I'm not sure we know what the percentage of flippers are. There have never been that many on ebay. I don't know how many go into box breaks as I don't really follow those.
Agreed that very few have been on eBay. Back when I used to follow whatnot it looked like there was a decent percentage of the total allocation that was sold on that platform.
@jeffas1974 said:
Does anyone else think his might be the beginning of the end for Vaultbox? If the majority of buyers were people looking to flip and those buyers can’t clear a profit after fees then this seems like a hard sell. Maybe they will drop back down to a less expensive product offering.
Impossible to say, but there is no "beginning of the end" as long as people are willing to accept less than fair value in return for the thrill of a break and the possibility of a score, regardless of questions people like me have regarding distribution.
If this price point is too rich for people's blood, they can always either scale it back, or just sell more at a lower price point in order to fund the prizes.
@NJCoin - do you have reason to believe that the red cores are sent to “insiders”? Wouldn’t that be illegal?
"Illegal"? What is their legal obligation to distribute fairly? If they have one, what they did before Round 1 was illegal, as social media influencers streamed box breaks featuring big scores. At least one of them later claimed the break was not real, but a simulation, with no evidence that the coin was sent back to NGC for resealing and redistribution, and no disclosure before or during the stream that it was not real. Only a disclaimer after YouTube went nuts.
No, I have no evidence they are doing anything wrong. I just don't like the way it looked in the beginning, and don't like the fact that there is no third party supervision and verification that distribution is fair, and that red cores are not sent to insiders.
The mere fact that insiders are allowed to participate is enough for me. If they cared about how things looked, they wouldn't allow it. If they cared how things looked, they wouldn't send links to Whatnot breaks, and would not supply those guys with boxes ahead of time.
And that's all before getting into the terrible economics of the game even if all of my concerns were addressed. I honestly don't think anything is illegal, because they provide a lot of disclosure on their website about the product, and no explicit promises that red cores aren't going where they want them to.
They sure imply that they have no idea what is going where, but the first round showed that is not necessarily the case. Again, it's an unsupervised, unregulated lottery. Everyone playing knows what it is.
I don't think anyone would have a legal claim if it turned out red cores were going to insiders any more than they would have a claim if the lady the magician saws in half actually has no internal injuries and, in fact, was never cut at all. People are getting what they are paying for when they enjoy the thrill of their break, and then find 3 coins inside that are included in the published list of coins in boxes, red core or not.
B&M casinos, online gaming, state run lotteries, etc. are all regulated and overseen by third parties. This is not, after coins are placed in sealed boxes, and before they are shipped to VB for distribution however they see fit. I'm really not sure what people expect, but I do not think anyone would have a legal claim, no matter where red cores end up, or how they get there.
Comments
Er, is Sam Bankman-Fried owner of VB?
Successful transactions with-Boosibri,lkeigwin,TomB,Broadstruck,coinsarefun,Type2,jom,ProfLiz, UltraHighRelief,Barndog,EXOJUNKIE,ldhair,fivecents,paesan,Crusty...
Who on here maxed out their credit cards hoping to score in resale?
I watched the same stream. Then after that one I watched some of another popular stream. The second one was starting the boxes at $1249 opening bid. Watched one person buy several boxes at issue price. A few sold for more. Wasn’t paying full attention, but saw 3 red cores. One Saint. Think it was 1913? Saw an MS67 Morgan in a box with a RP peace in 70 and a proof 1/10 gold. Buyer was another streamer and gave away the two black cores. Also saw a large gold nugget, but by that time I had the sound off.
Lots of sales were at issue price or barely above.
Heard one streamer say break even on the boxes for them was $1361. Saw very few sell for above that on his stream. Can’t imagine they lost money on virtually every box and were that happy about selling them. Gotta be more to it. Wholesale deal? Maybe vaultbox compensates them some other way. Maybe it’s worth it for the big streamers to have that much traffic. Who knows.
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Whatnot was advertising the vaultbox breaks on certain streams and the streamers had to have their shows start and end at certain times to clear the way for the next show. So there was some kind of coordinated effort by whatnot to get these out. I assume these streamers are given an allotment of available early purchase just like the mint does for bulk purchasers.
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For sure there will be the big winner,but at the expense of all the losers who propped up the top prize. Just like the lottery. At casinos you are not beating them or winning the casinos money. You are winning the dollars lost by the people sitting next to you. The house takes their dollars/cut off the top, the same as in horse racing wagering as well. So the house never cares who wins. They have already made their money via their takeout.
For those that engage in these activities has no relevance either way to me.
Correct, but that assumes regulated, supervised games. Take the Casino Control Commission, or the Racing Commission, or the SEC in the stock market, out of the equation, and all sorts of things can happen regarding determining who the winners and losers are.
Since many of the players are VB marketing partners, it's a terrible analogy, since, in this case, the house does actually have an interest in seeing certain players win, at the expense of those it doesn't have a relationship with. @bigjpst's observation of a streamer pulling a red core for himself during a stream is a perfect example. It's all meant to get people excited, while distracting them from the fact that winners are going to related parties.
The fact that people are not bothered by this is why VB is so successful. As others have said about fools and their money. Whatever. I'm just thrilled that all the buyers are so thrilled.
I am curious. Where does VB buy the inserted coinage from? Those dealers/collectors must be happy for the success of the VB venture. Are they overpaying?
Happens alot in the sports card world as well.
They are affiliated with a large, well known dealer. I assure you that they are buying inventory at or below wholesale, and have no need to overpay for anything. Do you think the people supplying the TV guys are overpaid for their wares, just because they are resold to the public at inflated prices?
I'm sure everyone in the supply chain is happy with the success of the product, and they are all making money, but that is not a reason for a marketing company to overpay for inventory.
So, all the "influencers got the hits" isn't true then.
Never was, and no one said it was.
I'm sure some common folk get some winners. I'm equally sure some insiders we never hear or see also win.
The point is simply that if they can steer some winners to some influencers, they can control what goes where, notwithstanding the fact that NGC is sealing boxes before forwarding them to VB for distribution to its partners and to the public.
Is that actually happening though? BTW, I don't care about Vaultbox one way or the other. I'm just curious if all the (fraud, unethical, etc.) talk has any merit or if it's just detractors making accusations because they don't like the product.
@bigjpst's observation of a streamer pulling a red core for himself during a stream is a perfect example. It's all meant to get people excited, while distracting them from the fact that winners are going to related parties.
To be clear, the person doing the live stream did not open their own box. Another streamer bid and won the box that was opened live. Actually, several of the “popular” streamers actively bid in these vaultbox breaks.
I’m not saying they do this to help prop up interest, but it does seem a bit like that. Whatnot is still a relatively small community of dealers and sellers. Most of the major players have been on a while and work together quite a bit on streams.
There does also seem to be a large number of people who regularly spend a ton of money on mystery games, so I think that may be why these seem to do so well on there.
And actually the TV show buyers that I’ve dealt with in the past usually pay strong money for the coins they need. Several used to walk Long Beach when I used to setup and if you had what they needed on their buy list, they didn’t beat you up on price unless you were way out of line.
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No one knows. The fact that it's possible because of what we saw with influencers in the beginning is all that is necessary to plant the seed of doubt. The fact independent third parties are involved in packing boxes, but not ultimate distribution of the prizes in a $1,000,000+ lottery is enough for lots of people.
Not really accusations. More like questions with no good answers. Anyone who wants to just hand over $1250 to someone, tell them a number you are thinking of between 1 and 2,000, and then have them tell you what you won is certainly more than free to do so.
But the games they played with the influencers prior to the launch of Series 1 was enough for plenty of people to be uncomfortable with how things are run. Enough so to overcome the FOMO we all experience with things like this and sit on the sidelines criticizing.
Bottom line -- it's not illegal, and I'm not trying to suggest it should be. Fraud is probably too strong a word, because I think they provide enough disclosure to cover themselves.
It's just that if you carefully read all the disclosures with a critical eye, and block out the carnival-like hype associated with their e-mails and social media campaigns, it's just an expensive way to get a cheap thrill from breaking open a mystery box, with no independent oversight over how valuable prizes are distributed.
Kind of like a casino in the old Wild West, rather than a modern, highly regulated one. Do you feel lucky? If so, place your bets.
I would call NGC’s involvement more of a corroboration than independent third party. I received 3 emails from NGC announcing their “partner’s” upcoming VB5 release, just as I did with prior releases. Maybe the marketing was part of the service NGC provided in addition to the grading and boxing.
I'm sure you are right. But NGC IS a trusted TPG, even if they assist with marketing, as does our host with its partners. If boxes were shipped directly from NGC (and we all know they have to capability to handle that), I'd be a lot more confident in the randomization of the distribution.
In that case, there would not be any live auctions, complete with box breaks, on Whatnot one day after release. And influencers wouldn't be pulling valuable coins on or before release day, and then later claiming the breaks were only simulated, and the valuable coins were returned to NGC for reboxing prior to launch.
I searched vault box on eBay. Explains why they sold out so fast the vulture’s have moved into vault box and asking major mark ups.
Well, I missed out on the first series, bought and opened the second, and then bought and sold boxes from the 3rd and 4th series releases. When they announced the 5th Series, I thought the price was way too high. I did wait to decide until the coin distribution list was released, just because I wanted to see what was being offered. As soon as I saw the list, though, I knew it was going to be a no-buy for me. Too many common coins, too many MS69 Silver Eagles...just too much of a risk.
It's definitely gambling. Better than a casino because you know you'll end up with something, likely silver or gold bullion, but the issue is the cost. The fun part is the anticipation, opening the box, seeing if you'll get something amazing. And if you could guarantee that for $1250 per box you were going to at least receive $800-$900 or more in coins, then it might be worth making that gamble. For me the fun would outweigh the loss of $300-$400.
But, the problem is you could get a box with 2 common MS69 Silver Eagles and an MS63 1880-S Morgan, or some proof quarter from the 1950's or an MS-69 1964 Kennedy. Scoring as little as $300 in coins from a $1250 purchase is too much to lose. That's just ugly and sheer greed on the part of the company. Think about it, they could combine those common Silver Eagles in the same box as the lowest possible quality MS-67 1880 or 1881 Morgan and Vaultbox would still make a profit on the box and make the buyer think he'd won some treasure, even if it was only an $800-$900 box in total.
So, no I'm out at that price, unless I can be assured that the worst possible box is only 60%-70% of what I'm paying for the box itself, not 20%-30%.
I hear you, but I honestly don't think the greed on the part of the promoters is any greater than in any of the other series. If you can get past the issues I have with distribution, you just need to understand that this is a different game than the other series.
The top prizes are worth a lot more, and that has to be funded somehow. It's certainly not coming out of VB's pocket, so that leaves the buyers. While the average value of a box is probably unchanged from the other rounds, the much higher value concentrated in a few boxes at the top means most boxes will be worth a lower percentage of MSRP than the other rounds.
Combine with the far higher prices, and the far higher population of boxes, and you just have a very different game, appealing to a very different market. Add in the fact that a lot of people apparently buy to flip, and it's not clear what to make of this, since the upside of a flip is very limited when the starting price is $1250.
Nobody should be surprised, with the history of coin and bullion marketplace flim flam and skulduggery plus financial fraud that this type of marketing would appear.
Its tolerated and even encouraged by major stakeholders. Many historically less than savory individuals are still major customers of the big auction houses. What does that tell you?
There are so many gullible people in this hobby.
After reading all these posts my belief is that vault box is like the mega millions, statistically speaking you have the same chances of winning the mega bucks whether you buy a ticket or don’t (basically 0 chances of winning either way) but millions of people still do buy tickets because “you have to be in it to win it”, even though your chances of winning are statistically 0.
VB looks the same to me, you buy a box and probably will lose, but in the back of the mind there is the thought “maybe next one will be me”
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
I saw several boxes opened that were just that type of combo. First coin was usually a MS69 eagle, 2nd coin was a commem or morgan VAM in 63 - 65ish range, and third coin was an early date S-mint Morgan in 66 or $5 W-mint proof gold in 70 aka 10.0. All together, like $500 - $750 in value and at least one of the buyers was excited because "I got proof gold in 70!".
And that's truly the brilliance of VB. Selling people $750 worth of coins for $1250, and having them be happy about it because a coin is shiny and yellow.
Well, that was fun despite FedEx driving me nuts all day. The packaging is high quality but I wish there was a wrapper (like on a pack of baseball cards) to rip open. I inadvertently opened the boxes from lowest value to highest value.
First coin was 1987 ASE in 9.9 and my heart dropped.
Second coin was a 1858-O 50c SS Republic in AU. Interesting but I don't think they are more than a couple of hundred dollars.
Third coin had a little holo seal on the box which the others did not. And immediately my heart started racing. This moment when I fumbled with the seal made the the whole thing worth it. Unfortunately it wasn't anything massive but I'm still ending up in the green.
Buyback offers are $50, $185, and $1500. That seems reasonable. Greysheet for the ASE is $43. I couldn't find a price guide for the shipwreck but I would probably ask $150 if selling it. The greysheet for a non-cameo J-633 is $1350, so this seems about right.
Overall, a lot of fun, although I'm sure I would think differently if I hadn't got a red core.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Not bad at all. Thanks for sharing the experience!
CONGRATULATIONS!!!!! You definitely lucked out, because they say on average you need to buy a case to get one red core, so you did well, and at least proved that all red cores do not go to insiders.
Still, it's sobering to realize that you only have around a 15% chance to get value for $1250, but I'm truly happy you did not get burned on this. Also, I think your buyback on the ASE is somewhat elevated because they are ascribing a premium to the blue core.
Congratulations!
Interesting that they have a pattern in there. Buyback price seems about right. Nice job!
How many vaultbox have a cac sticker?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
You didn’t help pay for the High Relief
Does anyone else think his might be the beginning of the end for Vaultbox? If the majority of buyers were people looking to flip and those buyers can’t clear a profit after fees then this seems like a hard sell. Maybe they will drop back down to a less expensive product offering.
I'm not sure we know what the percentage of flippers are. There have never been that many on ebay. I don't know how many go into box breaks as I don't really follow those.
Agreed that very few have been on eBay. Back when I used to follow whatnot it looked like there was a decent percentage of the total allocation that was sold on that platform.
Impossible to say, but there is no "beginning of the end" as long as people are willing to accept less than fair value in return for the thrill of a break and the possibility of a score, regardless of questions people like me have regarding distribution.
If this price point is too rich for people's blood, they can always either scale it back, or just sell more at a lower price point in order to fund the prizes.
When it comes to VB, remember the most important thing is
"The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese"
Buying VB slabs on the secondary market for fair market value is just the same as buying any other slab.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@lermish - thank you for sharing! That’s a great score.
@NJCoin - do you have reason to believe that the red cores are sent to “insiders”? Wouldn’t that be illegal?
"Illegal"? What is their legal obligation to distribute fairly? If they have one, what they did before Round 1 was illegal, as social media influencers streamed box breaks featuring big scores. At least one of them later claimed the break was not real, but a simulation, with no evidence that the coin was sent back to NGC for resealing and redistribution, and no disclosure before or during the stream that it was not real. Only a disclaimer after YouTube went nuts.
No, I have no evidence they are doing anything wrong. I just don't like the way it looked in the beginning, and don't like the fact that there is no third party supervision and verification that distribution is fair, and that red cores are not sent to insiders.
The mere fact that insiders are allowed to participate is enough for me. If they cared about how things looked, they wouldn't allow it. If they cared how things looked, they wouldn't send links to Whatnot breaks, and would not supply those guys with boxes ahead of time.
And that's all before getting into the terrible economics of the game even if all of my concerns were addressed. I honestly don't think anything is illegal, because they provide a lot of disclosure on their website about the product, and no explicit promises that red cores aren't going where they want them to.
They sure imply that they have no idea what is going where, but the first round showed that is not necessarily the case. Again, it's an unsupervised, unregulated lottery. Everyone playing knows what it is.
I don't think anyone would have a legal claim if it turned out red cores were going to insiders any more than they would have a claim if the lady the magician saws in half actually has no internal injuries and, in fact, was never cut at all. People are getting what they are paying for when they enjoy the thrill of their break, and then find 3 coins inside that are included in the published list of coins in boxes, red core or not.
B&M casinos, online gaming, state run lotteries, etc. are all regulated and overseen by third parties. This is not, after coins are placed in sealed boxes, and before they are shipped to VB for distribution however they see fit. I'm really not sure what people expect, but I do not think anyone would have a legal claim, no matter where red cores end up, or how they get there.
And the drum beat goes on...
Congrats @lermish ! So glad you brought home a winner!!!!!
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
PS - I decided to have a little more fun....
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Awesome!
@lermish that's an incredible score, congrats! I'd be interested in taking that shipwreck coin off your hands if you're planning to let it go.
How dare you! 😉
He's having fun wrong
Awesome coin!