@Catbert said:
I dunno. I look at what I've spent on my collection compared to PCGS price guide and I'm wondering if I should play the VB game instead!
I've debated whether to share this but...I bought one just for sh*ts and giggles. Worst case scenario I get three ASEs and lose ~$1100. I view it as a gamble, raffle, lotto ticket whatever. I've lost more than that in a casino on numerous occasions. More than anything it reminds me of those Ronald McDonald Dream House auctions, except the proceeds are going to VB instead of a deserving charity.
I've debated whether to share this but...I bought one just for sh*ts and giggles. Worst case scenario I get three ASEs and lose ~$1100. I view it as a gamble, raffle, lotto ticket whatever. I've lost more than that in a casino on numerous occasions. More than anything it reminds me of those Ronald McDonald Dream House auctions, except the proceeds are going to VB instead of a deserving charity.
So it’s the excitement of not knowing what’s in there? Like a Christmas present?
I really appreciate you “coming clean” with us and explaining the motivation. I’m like you - I think it would be exciting but my coin budget is … well … not so healthy at the moment …
I have bought enough “mistakes” and crap over the years that I am confident I will get 3 bullion ASEs that I probably already have … so, yeah - I’m out but PLEASE tell us what you got!! I’m really happy you came forward - this was the point of the thread - who’s in??
I didn’t buy one this time even though I didn’t make out too bad on the last. Still lost a couple hundred. Just not willing to spend the higher dollar amount.
I think the sellout has a bit of something to do with the large group of whatnot streamers who are scheduled for shows today and tomorrow. I’m interested to see how these are handled there.
For whatever reason people on whatnot would rather spend $30 multiple times in a mystery game on a chance to win $40 worth of silver than just buy it from a seller outright for $28.
It’s also interesting to me how on this forum if the poster who purchased these or has an interest in these is not one of two regular posters in these threads they are offered wishes of good luck instead of being bashed as shills for the man.
@ElKevvo said:
The only ones who can tell you the true average value of the coins in a Vault Box series are the folks at Vault Box. If the forum members who bought them would get together and share how much they paid and what they received in return depending on the number of responses a statistically accurate value could be determined.
But in reality it does not really matter as if you are looking at VB as a practical matter ie: having some value for the average buyer you won't buy into the concept due to the low potential for a return on your dollar where as if you buy a VB for the fun of it you don't care about the return, it is just the chance that interests you. So 2 camps of thought rooted in base personality types and the chance of moving from one side to the other is slim.
K
there is a complete list of all the coins in the boxes. Anyone who wanted to spend the time could calculate it. I saw numbers for 3 of the 4 prior releases.
So, since you are so interested, what are you waiting for?
Most of us realize the exercise will be a waste of time, because the answer, based on 4 prior releases, will be a big win for VB and a big loss for the vast majority of the public. And that's before getting into the unregulated and unsupervised manner in which they are distributed.
But, as an academic who wants data, the numbers are all there for you to crunch. Please report back when you are done.
It sounded like someone might have information, so I asked. Big deal. I didn't want or need to do the work.
What is wrong with you people? The answer is "I don't know" not > @bigjpst said:
I didn’t buy one this time even though I didn’t make out too bad on the last. Still lost a couple hundred. Just not willing to spend the higher dollar amount.
I think the sellout has a bit of something to do with the large group of whatnot streamers who are scheduled for shows today and tomorrow. I’m interested to see how these are handled there.
For whatever reason people on whatnot would rather spend $30 multiple times in a mystery game on a chance to win $40 worth of silver than just buy it from a seller outright for $28.
It’s also interesting to me how on this forum if the poster who purchased these or has an interest in these is not one of two regular posters in these threads they are offered wishes of good luck instead of being bashed as shills for the man.
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. No one wanted to discuss it in the open.
Another interesting thing is that every thread started by @WQuarterFreddie on the topic was closed and usually completely poofed. But threads started by other people don't get the same treatment. I do wonder if that is because people were complaining about Freddie's threads and they don't complain about these.
Good luck to anyone who played. Too rich for me this time. I do note people trying to sell Series 5 on ebay. I don't, however, see any actual sales.
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. Noonewantedtodiscussitintheopen.
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. Noonewantedtodiscussitintheopen.
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. Noonewantedtodiscussitintheopen.
Proud of bullying forum members?
You mean like this?
@jmlanzaf said:
What is wrong with you people? The answer is "I don't know" not > @bigjpst said....
This isn't just a coin hobby thing:
2023 Panini Flawless Baseball Hobby Box $2250
Product Configuration:
10 cards per pack
1 pack per box
At least with VB you get some PMs to cover your loses, imagine getting autograph cards of players who never make it. The bullion value of cardboard is zero.
also this gimmick: USA GEMS SIGNATURES - USA Gems Signatures features an on-card autograph paired with gemstones!
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. Noonewantedtodiscussitintheopen.
Proud of bullying forum members?
You mean like this?
@jmlanzaf said:
What is wrong with you people? The answer is "I don't know" not > @bigjpst said....
No. Everything that led up to that. And here you are again, taking a shot at me for a comment that didn't even involve you.
And the comment you quoted asked a question. It didn't call you stupid for buying a VB or any of the other things said on prior VB threads. I simply asked why everyone was bullying ME for asking if you had the VB numbers. I'm sorry if you think that was offensive.
And the comment you quoted asked a question. It didn't call you stupid for buying a VB or any of the other things said on prior VB threads. I simply asked why everyone was bullying ME for asking if you had the VB numbers. I'm sorry if you think that was offensive.
Did I give the impression I had the numbers? I very intentionally and specifically added "it seems" to my original comment to show that it was just my impression. The reason I did this was because I anticipated your reaction otherwise. But that still didn't save me.
I fully expect that if I had answered that I had not run the numbers, you would have then taken me to task for making that statement without a specific basis for it. That's just the way you roll.
Just a few posts up from here someone gave his opinion and did not mention you, and your response was "What is wrong with you people."
It is really unfortunate that these threads always end up this way. I liken it to the great truck debate, with each party putting the sticker below on their back window. I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified, but as others have stated here, and in other threads on this, I've lost more than the cost of these in a night at the casino, so I don't view them with the pure hatred that some here exhibit. I just really wish that those not interested would just move on, don't even open the threads. But just as some are compulsive gamblers, some compulsively argue it would seem. I really hope that this stays open long enough for @lermish to reveal how they did. I won't hold my breath now that the back and forth bickering is ramping up.
@Extremeengineer said:
I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified
Not over simplified, it is 100% a gamble, and a gamble within my favorite hobby. Which is ok by me! But if anyone thinks it is anything other than pure gambling, they are mistaken.
FedEx will be delivered tomorrow so just need the thread to hang on for ~24 hours
EDIT: And it's a pretty bad gamble in terms of expected return. But fun if one has the desire and the disposable income.
And the comment you quoted asked a question. It didn't call you stupid for buying a VB or any of the other things said on prior VB threads. I simply asked why everyone was bullying ME for asking if you had the VB numbers. I'm sorry if you think that was offensive.
Did I give the impression I had the numbers? I very intentionally and specifically added "it seems" to my original comment to show that it was just my impression. The reason I did this was because I anticipated your reaction otherwise. But that still didn't save me.
I fully expect that if I had answered that I had not run the numbers, you would have then taken me to task for making that statement without a specific basis for it. That's just the way you roll.
Just a few posts up from here someone gave his opinion and did not mention you, and your response was "What is wrong with you people."
Why are we still debating this? Everything is based on your assumptions about what I "intended" or might have done. How about taking it literally and at face value?
Just be advised, I am NOT paying rent for the space I'm taking up in your head.
[I'm still looking for the numbers but don't want to add them all up myself. I did it once for one of the early sets but it was easier because there were fewer types. Other sets, I had numbers from other people.]
@Extremeengineer said:
I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified
Not over simplified, it is 100% a gamble, and a gamble within my favorite hobby. Which is ok by me! But if anyone thinks it is anything other than pure gambling, they are mistaken.
FedEx will be delivered tomorrow so just need the thread to hang on for ~24 hours
EDIT: And it's a pretty bad gamble in terms of expected return. But fun if one has the desire and the disposable income.
Feel free to start a new one with your red core hits.
Honestly, I've never heard anyone call it anything but gambling.
@Extremeengineer said:
I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified
Not over simplified, it is 100% a gamble, and a gamble within my favorite hobby. Which is ok by me! But if anyone thinks it is anything other than pure gambling, they are mistaken.
FedEx will be delivered tomorrow so just need the thread to hang on for ~24 hours
EDIT: And it's a pretty bad gamble in terms of expected return. But fun if one has the desire and the disposable income.
Well, that's a breath of fresh air! No excuses, no delusions, just having fun. I hope you pull one of the top prizes.
It’s like the casino - if you make a bet because your life and financial situation depend on it - you will lose for sure!
On the other hand, if you have the money to spare and it doesn’t matter to you if you win or lose, well that’s the one who will get the 07 high relief or other valuable red core coins.
@Extremeengineer said:
I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified
Not over simplified, it is 100% a gamble, and a gamble within my favorite hobby. Which is ok by me! But if anyone thinks it is anything other than pure gambling, they are mistaken.
FedEx will be delivered tomorrow so just need the thread to hang on for ~24 hours
EDIT: And it's a pretty bad gamble in terms of expected return. But fun if one has the desire and the disposable income.
The question is, and I'm not accusing anyone of doing anything inappropriate, but, for argument's sake, if the game is rigged, is it still a 100% gamble, or it just throwing money away?
Assuming it's the latter, participating in an unsupervised, unregulated lottery seems a little reckless, even within one's favorite hobby. That's always been my only point.
In the beginning a lot of really sharp people did not fully understand exactly what VB was doing, aided and abetted by influencers and somewhat misleading statements issued by people promoting the product.
We are now well past that. Everyone knows exactly what it is, the expected value, the potential upside, the way boxes are distributed, etc., and is therefore free to spend their money however gives them the most pleasure. I truly wish you nothing but the best of luck, and hope you pull a big winner and prove all the naysayers, including me, wrong.
The question is, and I'm not accusing anyone of doing anything inappropriate, but, for argument's sake, if the game is rigged, is it still a 100% gamble, or it just throwing money away?
Assuming it's the latter, participating in an unsupervised, unregulated lottery seems a little reckless, even within one's favorite hobby. That's always been my only point.
In the beginning a lot of really sharp people did not fully understand exactly what VB was doing, aided and abetted by influencers and somewhat misleading statements issued by people promoting the product.
We are now well past that. Everyone knows exactly what it is, the expected value, the potential upside, the way boxes are distributed, etc., and is therefore free to spend their money however gives them the most pleasure. I truly wish you nothing but the best of luck, and hope you pull a big winner and prove all the naysayers, including me, wrong.
Well someone has to “win” - but I’m curious about your comment on regulation - really? You think the government needs to be involved here? At some point - folks need to be accountable for their decisions, whether bad or good, and shouldn’t require the government to tell them what is good or bad - that doesn’t end well historically. But I do see your point - but protecting the ignorant is a fools errand imo … let Darwin deal with it - cheaper and more effective
And the comment you quoted asked a question. It didn't call you stupid for buying a VB or any of the other things said on prior VB threads. I simply asked why everyone was bullying ME for asking if you had the VB numbers. I'm sorry if you think that was offensive.
Did I give the impression I had the numbers? I very intentionally and specifically added "it seems" to my original comment to show that it was just my impression. The reason I did this was because I anticipated your reaction otherwise. But that still didn't save me.
I fully expect that if I had answered that I had not run the numbers, you would have then taken me to task for making that statement without a specific basis for it. That's just the way you roll.
Just a few posts up from here someone gave his opinion and did not mention you, and your response was "What is wrong with you people."
Why are we still debating this? Everything is based on your assumptions about what I "intended" or might have done. How about taking it literally and at face value?
Just be advised, I am NOT paying rent for the space I'm taking up in your head.
[I'm still looking for the numbers but don't want to add them all up myself. I did it once for one of the early sets but it was easier because there were fewer types. Other sets, I had numbers from other people.]
Honestly, it REALLY does not matter. After 4 series, we all have a pretty good idea of what the house rake is, as well as the deltas between Greysheet bid, VB buy back offers, eBay values, and claimed retail values of the boxes using something crazy like retail price guides.
As a result, nobody needs to spend countless hours spinning their wheels to realize it is an exercise in futility to calculate what, in the end, will be subjective numbers. Rest assured, the collective value of the buy backs will be around 30% south of $1249 times however boxes they are selling, and the average person will pull a box worth far less than that, due to the value needed to support the mega prizes, as well as the opaque manner in which prizes seem to be distributed.
You are smart enough to not waste your time doing the calculation. Why do you seem to honestly believe someone else lacks your level of intelligence, and would waste time calculating subjective numbers that would only be criticized and picked apart, regardless of the methodology used?
This is why people think you are not seriously looking for numbers, and are just looking for something else to argue about.
@Extremeengineer said:
Feel free to start a new one with your red core hits.
Honestly, I've never heard anyone call it anything but gambling.
Gambling implies that you will win sometimes. IMO, this is something else .....
Somebody is winning the $50,000 top prize and the 1907 high relief.
All other accusations of fraud are based on nothing.
No. Accusations are based on what we all observed in the earlier rounds. We all get to choose whether to believe you, various promoters, or our own lying eyes.
The absence of government oversight and regulation, or independent third party supervision and certification of distribution, not merely the grading of coins and packing of boxes, only feeds the distrust and further forms the basis of accusations, questions, etc. It's not nothing.
Yes, someone will pull each of the winners. But, if members of the general public literally have a 0.0% chance, rather than the 1 in whatever advertised chance, that actually would be fraud, even if it would be impossible to prove given how they are running their lottery. This is why prudent, skeptical people stay away and limit their thrill seeking to regulated, supervised games of chance.
It's a gamble. People ascribe value to the fun and entertainment of gambling (see: Las Vegas). For those who can afford it and enjoy it, let them have fun. Personally, the pain of losing is more than the joy of winning, and the expected value is too low so it's not for me. But I enjoy watching the videos of others having fun and it would be nice if folks could post their results here without fear of being criticized.
VB is inconsequential in the grand scheme of the hobby and market and this feels like a controversy over nothing. VB has been transparent about the prizes and there is enough data out there now to make your own judgement about the expected value. VB isn't being targeted at the masses or likely to have social consequences such as addiction, so I don't see the need for government regulation. After all the handwringing, I have seen no proof or credible claim that the distribution of prizes is anything but random.
The question is, and I'm not accusing anyone of doing anything inappropriate, but, for argument's sake, if the game is rigged, is it still a 100% gamble, or it just throwing money away?
Assuming it's the latter, participating in an unsupervised, unregulated lottery seems a little reckless, even within one's favorite hobby. That's always been my only point.
In the beginning a lot of really sharp people did not fully understand exactly what VB was doing, aided and abetted by influencers and somewhat misleading statements issued by people promoting the product.
We are now well past that. Everyone knows exactly what it is, the expected value, the potential upside, the way boxes are distributed, etc., and is therefore free to spend their money however gives them the most pleasure. I truly wish you nothing but the best of luck, and hope you pull a big winner and prove all the naysayers, including me, wrong.
Well someone has to “win” - but I’m curious about your comment on regulation - really? You think the government needs to be involved here? At some point - folks need to be accountable for their decisions, whether bad or good, and shouldn’t require the government to tell them what is good or bad - that doesn’t end well historically. But I do see your point - but protecting the ignorant is a fools errand imo … let Darwin deal with it - cheaper and more effective
No, I'm actually not trying to suggest that government needs to be involved here. I'm just saying that in the absence of such regulation, like what exists in every casino, B&M or online, you really need independent third party oversight just to keep everyone honest.
They imply that they have that, proudly pointing to NGC's involvement in grading and sealing boxes. But then we all saw the BS surrounding promotion and distribution in the early rounds, with allocations to preferred authorized sellers, influencers pulling winners live for all to see, whatever they are doing on Whatnot, etc., and it's fair to at least say distribution is opaque.
And that is simply no way to run a million dollar plus lottery. Period. As I said, in the beginning I was all about disclosure. We are well past that now. Everyone knows what this is, and should absolutely be free to share some of their hard earned money with the Minshulls if it makes them happy.
@Extremeengineer said:
Feel free to start a new one with your red core hits.
Honestly, I've never heard anyone call it anything but gambling.
Gambling implies that you will win sometimes. IMO, this is something else .....
Somebody is winning the $50,000 top prize and the 1907 high relief.
All other accusations of fraud are based on nothing.
No. Accusations are based on what we all observed in the earlier rounds. We all get to choose whether to believe you, various promoters, or our own lying eyes.
The absence of government oversight and regulation, or independent third party supervision and certification of distribution, not merely the grading of coins and packing of boxes, only feeds the distrust and further forms the basis of accusations, questions, etc. It's not nothing.
Yes, someone will pull each of the winners. But, if members of the general public literally have a 0.0% chance, rather than the 1 in whatever advertised chance, that actually would be fraud, even if it would be impossible to prove given how they are running their lottery. This is why prudent, skeptical people stay away and limit their thrill seeking to regulated, supervised games of chance.
I hope that distribution of boxes is truly random. With how quickly these sold out, there is no reason to try to make more money dishonestly and risk probable fraud prosecution. But people do stupid things all the time for a variety of reasons.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
What's the story with "influencers" getting the hits? Links?
I doubt the links are still around but in the earlier releases, winning boxes were showing up online being opened the day before the official release.
Mistake or trying to create hype?
The Philadelphia Mint: making coins since 1792. We make money by making money. Now in our 225th year thanks to no competition.
@Extremeengineer said:
Feel free to start a new one with your red core hits.
Honestly, I've never heard anyone call it anything but gambling.
Gambling implies that you will win sometimes. IMO, this is something else .....
Somebody is winning the $50,000 top prize and the 1907 high relief.
All other accusations of fraud are based on nothing.
No. Accusations are based on what we all observed in the earlier rounds. We all get to choose whether to believe you, various promoters, or our own lying eyes.
The absence of government oversight and regulation, or independent third party supervision and certification of distribution, not merely the grading of coins and packing of boxes, only feeds the distrust and further forms the basis of accusations, questions, etc. It's not nothing.
Yes, someone will pull each of the winners. But, if members of the general public literally have a 0.0% chance, rather than the 1 in whatever advertised chance, that actually would be fraud, even if it would be impossible to prove given how they are running their lottery. This is why prudent, skeptical people stay away and limit their thrill seeking to regulated, supervised games of chance.
I hope that distribution of boxes is truly random. With how quickly these sold out, there is no reason to try to make more money dishonestly and risk probable fraud prosecution. But people do stupid things all the time for a variety of reasons.
Sure, but it's not about making more money. It's about taking care of insiders and other friends. To me at least, it looks like they've been doing it from the beginning, and it hasn't cost them anything, so why stop now? Plus, given how Series 4 popped up a few times after the announced sell out, who even knows if they are really sold out, or if that is also just to create more hype, like pretty much everything else they do to promote the product?
No fraud prosecution because no victim will ever be able to prove anything. Plus, they just keep coming back for more.
They are apparently more interested in the thrill of the pull than the actual prize. So they might not even be victims at all, and certainly have no demonstrable damages, and seem to be getting exactly what they are paying for, since their odds of winning a fair game are still close to zero.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
What's the story with "influencers" getting the hits? Links?
I doubt the links are still around but in the earlier releases, winning boxes were showing up online being opened the day before the official release.
Mistake or trying to create hype?
Not a mistake. Definitely trying to create hype, and it worked. They just didn't think through how it would look to skeptics, or what it actually said about how no one could possibly know what was in randomly seeded, sealed boxes.
After seeing that, multiple times, no statements about how the distribution is above reproach holds any weight without independent third party oversight. At least not to those who are not already true believers.
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
4 of the boxes were worth $350 or less
2 were worth around $500 - $650
2 were worth around $700 - $850
1 was worth around $1300 (about retail)
1 was worth around $1800
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
@mattniss said:
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
4 of the boxes were worth $350 or less
2 were worth around $500 - $650
2 were worth around $700 - $850
1 was worth around $1300 (about retail)
1 was worth around $1800
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
A better question is how Whatnot streamers get their hands on 4 cases, when VB had a strict limit of one case per customer, and they made a big deal out of having secondary drops of the last series comprised of orders they supposedly canceled for exceeding their order limit. Basically, everything about the marketing and distribution of these is sketchy, yet FOMO keeps driving people to it like moths to a flame.
@Manifest_Destiny said:
What's the story with "influencers" getting the hits? Links?
I doubt the links are still around but in the earlier releases, winning boxes were showing up online being opened the day before the official release.
Mistake or trying to create hype?
They had a pre-sale that was open to EVERYONE on the trading card site. I'm drawing a blank on the name, PWC? PWCC? And a few people opened them online. It wasn't a mistake, it was a pre-sale.
The boxes are packed by NGC and (supposedly) VB doesn't know what's in any of the boxes. So, unless you think NGC would risk THEIR reputation, it's just a lot of rumor-mongering.
@mattniss said:
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
4 of the boxes were worth $350 or less
2 were worth around $500 - $650
2 were worth around $700 - $850
1 was worth around $1300 (about retail)
1 was worth around $1800
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
A better question is how Whatnot streamers get their hands on 4 cases, when VB had a strict limit of one case per customer, and they made a big deal out of having secondary drops of the last series comprised of orders they supposedly canceled for exceeding their order limit. Basically, everything about the marketing and distribution of these is sketchy, yet FOMO keeps driving people to it like moths to a flame.
Do I have to spell it out for you? If you had 3 friends, you could easily get your hands on 4 cases. My mother has been buying low mintage U.S. Mint products for years...just saying.
@mattniss said:
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
4 of the boxes were worth $350 or less
2 were worth around $500 - $650
2 were worth around $700 - $850
1 was worth around $1300 (about retail)
1 was worth around $1800
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
A better question is how Whatnot streamers get their hands on 4 cases, when VB had a strict limit of one case per customer, and they made a big deal out of having secondary drops of the last series comprised of orders they supposedly canceled for exceeding their order limit. Basically, everything about the marketing and distribution of these is sketchy, yet FOMO keeps driving people to it like moths to a flame.
Do I have to spell it out for you? If you had 3 friends, you could easily get your hands on 4 cases. My mother has been buying low mintage U.S. Mint products for years...just saying.
Yes, you have to spell it out for me. VB sent out an e-mail this morning pointing people to the Whatnot action today. It's a coordinated marketing effort.
It's not you circumventing US Mint order limits with your mom. You and your mom are not busting open excess quantities of US Mint products online a little more than 24 hours after release, assisted by mass e-mails direct from the Mint inviting the rest of us to watch and bid.
Comments
I've debated whether to share this but...I bought one just for sh*ts and giggles. Worst case scenario I get three ASEs and lose ~$1100. I view it as a gamble, raffle, lotto ticket whatever. I've lost more than that in a casino on numerous occasions. More than anything it reminds me of those Ronald McDonald Dream House auctions, except the proceeds are going to VB instead of a deserving charity.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
So it’s the excitement of not knowing what’s in there? Like a Christmas present?
I really appreciate you “coming clean” with us and explaining the motivation. I’m like you - I think it would be exciting but my coin budget is … well … not so healthy at the moment …
I have bought enough “mistakes” and crap over the years that I am confident I will get 3 bullion ASEs that I probably already have … so, yeah - I’m out but PLEASE tell us what you got!! I’m really happy you came forward - this was the point of the thread - who’s in??
@lermish - one more thing / I hope you score BIG!! That would be awesome to see!
@lermish - I’m rooting for you, but this seems like a good time for this quote from one of my favorite books.
“May the odds be ever in your favor!”
Coin Photographer.
What do I need to do to get a sponsor? I might need some balm😂
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Remember-u1 mystery boxes are still available and provide just as much excitement for a much smaller monetary outlay.
I didn’t buy one this time even though I didn’t make out too bad on the last. Still lost a couple hundred. Just not willing to spend the higher dollar amount.
I think the sellout has a bit of something to do with the large group of whatnot streamers who are scheduled for shows today and tomorrow. I’m interested to see how these are handled there.
For whatever reason people on whatnot would rather spend $30 multiple times in a mystery game on a chance to win $40 worth of silver than just buy it from a seller outright for $28.
It’s also interesting to me how on this forum if the poster who purchased these or has an interest in these is not one of two regular posters in these threads they are offered wishes of good luck instead of being bashed as shills for the man.
My Ebay Store
For those who may not be familiar with Effie Trinket of The Hunger Games:
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
It sounded like someone might have information, so I asked. Big deal. I didn't want or need to do the work.
What is wrong with you people? The answer is "I don't know" not > @bigjpst said:
On one of the earlier releases, there was an active DM discussion among several of us who had bought them, some of whom opened them. No one wanted to discuss it in the open.
Another interesting thing is that every thread started by @WQuarterFreddie on the topic was closed and usually completely poofed. But threads started by other people don't get the same treatment. I do wonder if that is because people were complaining about Freddie's threads and they don't complain about these.
Good luck to anyone who played. Too rich for me this time. I do note people trying to sell Series 5 on ebay. I don't, however, see any actual sales.
Quick question...how much were the VB 1 boxes when released?
K
I was thinking more along the lines of needing some LUBE!
I will keep an eye out for people posting their openings of vault box series 5 on YouTube.
Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP
Proud of bullying forum members?
You mean like this?
This isn't just a coin hobby thing:
2023 Panini Flawless Baseball Hobby Box $2250
Product Configuration:
At least with VB you get some PMs to cover your loses, imagine getting autograph cards of players who never make it. The bullion value of cardboard is zero.
also this gimmick: USA GEMS SIGNATURES - USA Gems Signatures features an on-card autograph paired with gemstones!
No. Everything that led up to that. And here you are again, taking a shot at me for a comment that didn't even involve you.
And the comment you quoted asked a question. It didn't call you stupid for buying a VB or any of the other things said on prior VB threads. I simply asked why everyone was bullying ME for asking if you had the VB numbers. I'm sorry if you think that was offensive.
Did I give the impression I had the numbers? I very intentionally and specifically added "it seems" to my original comment to show that it was just my impression. The reason I did this was because I anticipated your reaction otherwise. But that still didn't save me.
I fully expect that if I had answered that I had not run the numbers, you would have then taken me to task for making that statement without a specific basis for it. That's just the way you roll.
Just a few posts up from here someone gave his opinion and did not mention you, and your response was "What is wrong with you people."
It is really unfortunate that these threads always end up this way. I liken it to the great truck debate, with each party putting the sticker below on their back window. I have not purchased one of these, but as some others here have admitted, I have considered it, and come close. For me it boils down to are you a gambler, perhaps over simplified, but as others have stated here, and in other threads on this, I've lost more than the cost of these in a night at the casino, so I don't view them with the pure hatred that some here exhibit. I just really wish that those not interested would just move on, don't even open the threads. But just as some are compulsive gamblers, some compulsively argue it would seem. I really hope that this stays open long enough for @lermish to reveal how they did. I won't hold my breath now that the back and forth bickering is ramping up.
$595
Not over simplified, it is 100% a gamble, and a gamble within my favorite hobby. Which is ok by me! But if anyone thinks it is anything other than pure gambling, they are mistaken.
FedEx will be delivered tomorrow so just need the thread to hang on for ~24 hours
EDIT: And it's a pretty bad gamble in terms of expected return. But fun if one has the desire and the disposable income.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Yeah. They've been all over the place for different series. As low as $299 and now as high as $1249
Why are we still debating this? Everything is based on your assumptions about what I "intended" or might have done. How about taking it literally and at face value?
Just be advised, I am NOT paying rent for the space I'm taking up in your head.
[I'm still looking for the numbers but don't want to add them all up myself. I did it once for one of the early sets but it was easier because there were fewer types. Other sets, I had numbers from other people.]
Feel free to start a new one with your red core hits.
Honestly, I've never heard anyone call it anything but gambling.
Gambling implies that you will win sometimes. IMO, this is something else .....
Well, that's a breath of fresh air! No excuses, no delusions, just having fun. I hope you pull one of the top prizes.
Somebody is winning the $50,000 top prize and the 1907 high relief.
All other accusations of fraud are based on nothing.
It’s like the casino - if you make a bet because your life and financial situation depend on it - you will lose for sure!
On the other hand, if you have the money to spare and it doesn’t matter to you if you win or lose, well that’s the one who will get the 07 high relief or other valuable red core coins.
The question is, and I'm not accusing anyone of doing anything inappropriate, but, for argument's sake, if the game is rigged, is it still a 100% gamble, or it just throwing money away?
Assuming it's the latter, participating in an unsupervised, unregulated lottery seems a little reckless, even within one's favorite hobby. That's always been my only point.
In the beginning a lot of really sharp people did not fully understand exactly what VB was doing, aided and abetted by influencers and somewhat misleading statements issued by people promoting the product.
We are now well past that. Everyone knows exactly what it is, the expected value, the potential upside, the way boxes are distributed, etc., and is therefore free to spend their money however gives them the most pleasure. I truly wish you nothing but the best of luck, and hope you pull a big winner and prove all the naysayers, including me, wrong.
Well someone has to “win” - but I’m curious about your comment on regulation - really? You think the government needs to be involved here? At some point - folks need to be accountable for their decisions, whether bad or good, and shouldn’t require the government to tell them what is good or bad - that doesn’t end well historically. But I do see your point - but protecting the ignorant is a fools errand imo … let Darwin deal with it - cheaper and more effective
Honestly, it REALLY does not matter. After 4 series, we all have a pretty good idea of what the house rake is, as well as the deltas between Greysheet bid, VB buy back offers, eBay values, and claimed retail values of the boxes using something crazy like retail price guides.
As a result, nobody needs to spend countless hours spinning their wheels to realize it is an exercise in futility to calculate what, in the end, will be subjective numbers. Rest assured, the collective value of the buy backs will be around 30% south of $1249 times however boxes they are selling, and the average person will pull a box worth far less than that, due to the value needed to support the mega prizes, as well as the opaque manner in which prizes seem to be distributed.
You are smart enough to not waste your time doing the calculation. Why do you seem to honestly believe someone else lacks your level of intelligence, and would waste time calculating subjective numbers that would only be criticized and picked apart, regardless of the methodology used?
This is why people think you are not seriously looking for numbers, and are just looking for something else to argue about.
No. Accusations are based on what we all observed in the earlier rounds. We all get to choose whether to believe you, various promoters, or our own lying eyes.
The absence of government oversight and regulation, or independent third party supervision and certification of distribution, not merely the grading of coins and packing of boxes, only feeds the distrust and further forms the basis of accusations, questions, etc. It's not nothing.
Yes, someone will pull each of the winners. But, if members of the general public literally have a 0.0% chance, rather than the 1 in whatever advertised chance, that actually would be fraud, even if it would be impossible to prove given how they are running their lottery. This is why prudent, skeptical people stay away and limit their thrill seeking to regulated, supervised games of chance.
It's a gamble. People ascribe value to the fun and entertainment of gambling (see: Las Vegas). For those who can afford it and enjoy it, let them have fun. Personally, the pain of losing is more than the joy of winning, and the expected value is too low so it's not for me. But I enjoy watching the videos of others having fun and it would be nice if folks could post their results here without fear of being criticized.
VB is inconsequential in the grand scheme of the hobby and market and this feels like a controversy over nothing. VB has been transparent about the prizes and there is enough data out there now to make your own judgement about the expected value. VB isn't being targeted at the masses or likely to have social consequences such as addiction, so I don't see the need for government regulation. After all the handwringing, I have seen no proof or credible claim that the distribution of prizes is anything but random.
No, I'm actually not trying to suggest that government needs to be involved here. I'm just saying that in the absence of such regulation, like what exists in every casino, B&M or online, you really need independent third party oversight just to keep everyone honest.
They imply that they have that, proudly pointing to NGC's involvement in grading and sealing boxes. But then we all saw the BS surrounding promotion and distribution in the early rounds, with allocations to preferred authorized sellers, influencers pulling winners live for all to see, whatever they are doing on Whatnot, etc., and it's fair to at least say distribution is opaque.
And that is simply no way to run a million dollar plus lottery. Period. As I said, in the beginning I was all about disclosure. We are well past that now. Everyone knows what this is, and should absolutely be free to share some of their hard earned money with the Minshulls if it makes them happy.
I hope that distribution of boxes is truly random. With how quickly these sold out, there is no reason to try to make more money dishonestly and risk probable fraud prosecution. But people do stupid things all the time for a variety of reasons.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
No.
What's the story with "influencers" getting the hits? Links?
I doubt the links are still around but in the earlier releases, winning boxes were showing up online being opened the day before the official release.
Mistake or trying to create hype?
Sure, but it's not about making more money. It's about taking care of insiders and other friends. To me at least, it looks like they've been doing it from the beginning, and it hasn't cost them anything, so why stop now? Plus, given how Series 4 popped up a few times after the announced sell out, who even knows if they are really sold out, or if that is also just to create more hype, like pretty much everything else they do to promote the product?
No fraud prosecution because no victim will ever be able to prove anything. Plus, they just keep coming back for more.
They are apparently more interested in the thrill of the pull than the actual prize. So they might not even be victims at all, and certainly have no demonstrable damages, and seem to be getting exactly what they are paying for, since their odds of winning a fair game are still close to zero.
Not a mistake. Definitely trying to create hype, and it worked. They just didn't think through how it would look to skeptics, or what it actually said about how no one could possibly know what was in randomly seeded, sealed boxes.
After seeing that, multiple times, no statements about how the distribution is above reproach holds any weight without independent third party oversight. At least not to those who are not already true believers.
Had one of the big Whatnot streamers (who apparently purchased 4 cases of VB5's) on in the background while I was working today. During the time I had the stream on, they sold about 10 boxes (so 30 total coins). My observations:
1) There were 2 red core hits that were pulled from those 30 coins, an 1850 half cent in AU58BN and an 1854 $3 princess in AU55.
2) There were about 6 medium hits that all were $500 - $600 bid coins (i.e.: 3 of them were 1921-D Morgans in 9.5 aka MS65).
3) I saw 1 "higher low" coin pulled, an 1881-S Morgan in 66 aka 9.6.
4) The remaining 20 or so were all low floor $40 - $150 coins, everything from ASE's in 69 aka 9.9 to common date Morgan VAMs in 63 aka 9.3 to V nickels in 63 aka 9.3 and more.
5) Retailing at $1,249, the average auction hammer was ~$1,320. The final auction, which was mathematically showcased to likely be a red core hit (and was), hammered for $1,930 (this one had the 1850 half cent).
So overall, at a $1,249 retail price / $1,320 hammer price plus taxes and shipping:
In summation, the house always wins -- a gamble indeed.
Just FYI as a few asked about results - a good friend of mine got this in series 4
Oh - and he didn’t participate in series 5…. 🤔😉
2 sold on ebay so far......
.
A better question is how Whatnot streamers get their hands on 4 cases, when VB had a strict limit of one case per customer, and they made a big deal out of having secondary drops of the last series comprised of orders they supposedly canceled for exceeding their order limit. Basically, everything about the marketing and distribution of these is sketchy, yet FOMO keeps driving people to it like moths to a flame.
Sadly after reading this thread I figure I’d have better luck finding $$$$$ in parking lots. Wish me luck! At least it won’t cost me anything.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
There are 3 currently available for $1350 obo on eBay. No real profit to be made flipping these at the moment. Yawn…
They had a pre-sale that was open to EVERYONE on the trading card site. I'm drawing a blank on the name, PWC? PWCC? And a few people opened them online. It wasn't a mistake, it was a pre-sale.
The boxes are packed by NGC and (supposedly) VB doesn't know what's in any of the boxes. So, unless you think NGC would risk THEIR reputation, it's just a lot of rumor-mongering.
Do I have to spell it out for you? If you had 3 friends, you could easily get your hands on 4 cases. My mother has been buying low mintage U.S. Mint products for years...just saying.
Yes, you have to spell it out for me. VB sent out an e-mail this morning pointing people to the Whatnot action today. It's a coordinated marketing effort.
It's not you circumventing US Mint order limits with your mom. You and your mom are not busting open excess quantities of US Mint products online a little more than 24 hours after release, assisted by mass e-mails direct from the Mint inviting the rest of us to watch and bid.
Why do you have to be such a shill? Just asking.