Different auction venues and the addition of the CAC likely account for the price difference assuming it is the same coin. I have been seeing better "deals" on Heritage or Stacks than on GC, seems that everything on GC gets bid to the moon.
2 years later in a hot market, with a change to the right plastic and add a sticker ... I mean, yeah, big difference, but it seems Jan 2020 to Sep 2021 there were plenty of bargains too, if you were looking under the right rocks and weren't afraid of the "outside" noise.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Downgrade then negative P&L likely result. Like pitching the ball way back a loss the result.
I play a spread offense / 4 wr (aerial threat, speedster, Mr Reliable) plus bulls eye 5 star QB. 1 RB - a wrecking ball type. All 4 WR going out then hit one for big gainer. Rinse and repeat. The strong RB can get ball in end zone if we are close to goal line.
@coinbuf said:
Different auction venues and the addition of the CAC likely account for the price difference assuming it is the same coin. I have been seeing better "deals" on Heritage or Stacks than on GC, seems that everything on GC gets bid to the moon.
To me, Great Collections seems like a much more attractive site for "everyman" collectors. Auctions close every week at the same time, great stuff across a wide range of price points, terrific service. I would guess GC draws more collectors' eyes on a regular basis, resulting in strong competition for nice stuff.
I have done well on GC picking up nice stuff for inventory. It has done well on bourse and online store. Certainly there is material there that will draw a bid war. I stay away from those like a WR double teamed. Kind of like a spread offense QB with 4 WR out there. I just cycle to the open WR or one has chance make the play. I like their BIN stuff - sometimes will pick up one - desert for the order.
I think downgrading material especially big ticket a mistake. One instead should consider their procurement performance. I realize a lot of them play the holder / sticker game. However it’s more about finding the buyer who will pay the money. Once it’s in auction its out of your control. YMMV.
Trying to downgrade a six figure coin isn’t for the faint of heart. How do you know it will downgrade and how do you know it will sticker if it downgrades? Unless the original buyer is an expert or is very well connected this seems like a risky strategy.
I think that was a smart move- I’m only buying gold in PCGS/CAC. On the other hand I have some PF69 Morgans in NGC holders that I do not plan to cross into PR68 PCGS/CAC holders because it would likely be a financial loss at auction.
The 1803 is a real beauty. Many would like own that. I would not want downgrade. Keep as is - if necessary commission an expert in that area represent me if selling. I don’t believe down grading coins bc of the sticker or holder game.
The thing that really gets me on this is why is somebody buying such expensive big ticket material then now buyers remorse? Downgrade?
@coinbuf said:
Different auction venues and the addition of the CAC likely account for the price difference assuming it is the same coin. I have been seeing better "deals" on Heritage or Stacks than on GC, seems that everything on GC gets bid to the moon.
I think SB has the venue advantage here. I think it is all the PCGS plastic with the CAC sticker combo.
This is not uncommon. Many large dealers do this frequently including Legend. This is why the CAC only mantra really irks me. Many of the “CAC only group” will publicly trash the coins to lower the price so they can do precisely this IMHO. An astute buyer could have had an expert like Mark Feld or Doug Winter lot view and save six figures.
And that is not to suggest that every coin will downgrade and sticker the grade below either. There are traps for the unweary; however, you could have a true expert lot view for 3% of your winning bid or so just as people did before CAC. How much does the sticker cost? To me that is a needless tax.
Wouldn't it be easier to just crack it out and request a lower grade ? Of course not, it may not even grade ! You see it's all just a game that has been instituted by certain dealers in order to make their coins more marketable to certain buyers.
The interesting part of this coin - the extra star - is another numismatic mystery. The how and why it was added has never been factually determined. Cheers, RickO
I’m going to conjure a guess that the person who bought the coin from Stacks was hoping to get a straight cross at 66 with pcgs and didn’t make it. Clearly the coin had to have been at cac while it was in the NGC holder and it didn’t pass. It must have went to pcgs under cross at any grade, and it came back as the 65, then went to cac where it finally green beaned.
I’m surprised by the GC auction result, as the bidders must think this has the potential to jump to a 66 at pcgs? I mean even if it only goes 65+, they spent double the past auction result buying it, meaning they already paid for the +.
It’s a nice coin but it’s got “ticks” on both sides probably limiting the grade to where it is now.
So do you think the coin has doubled in price in 2 years, GC has phenomenal marketing skills, Stack’s auctions stink, or it’s a lock pcgs 66?
That’s a heck of an expensive mistake to buy a big ticket coin like that believing it will upgrade. If your going to play, be prepared to pay. I don’t feel sorry for those people or their buyers remorse. I have seen all kind of types of zany if not terrible situations here but this one stands out. Auctions can be like throwing a Hail Mary pass - if nobody shows up to catch it - it can be ugly. But the buyer who intercepts the pickoff may have something he can put in his inventory try get double bubble money (keystone markup) or nifty fifty (50 pct markup).
@1madman said:
I’m surprised by the GC auction result, as the bidders must think this has the potential to jump to a 66 at pcgs? I mean even if it only goes 65+, they spent double the past auction result buying it, meaning they already paid for the +.
But it stickered. There are MANY examples like this out there. Some coins in the same exact plastic increase in value with the addition of the green bean. Here is one particularly egregious episode IMHO:
I tend to be in the mindset that every coin will sticker at cac if the label grade is low enough (let’s forget coins that grade poor1-good4 right now). Your auction example is fantastic, and brings me back to say that maybe Stacks auctions are the problem.
Kind of makes me think that the way to make money in the coin market is get your coins stickered by cac yourself, don’t buy them already stickered as you’re likely to be buried by the markup costs.
Does anyone think the original coin in this thread is a $1 million coin in a 65 holder over the next 5 years?
The buyer could have bought the original coin and taken it on a walkthrough with JA and asked if he’d sticker it at 65. I’ve sent coins to dealers to do this before.
Collector of Original Early Gold with beginnings in Proof Morgan collecting.
@1madman said:
I tend to be in the mindset that every coin will sticker at cac if the label grade is low enough (let’s forget coins that grade poor1-good4 right now). Your auction example is fantastic, and brings me back to say that maybe Stacks auctions are the problem.
Kind of makes me think that the way to make money in the coin market is get your coins stickered by cac yourself, don’t buy them already stickered as you’re likely to be buried by the markup costs.
Does anyone think the original coin in this thread is a $1 million coin in a 65 holder over the next 5 years?
Contrary to your mindset, not all coins would sticker at CAC, no matter how low the assigned grade. That’s because they don’t agree that all straight-grade coins merit straight grades.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No don’t see much of increase in it if any. Many feel market crash on horizon. What is your game plan if that? However a wealthy buyer with lots of cash could come along. Furthermore what if coin goes bad in the holder or eye appeal depletion over that period of time? Reaction to atmosphere, biological attack, etc. You plan move it in 6 months right?
That’s what I’m getting at. What did these 2 high bidders foresee this coin doing? Were they both totally ignorant of previous auction results and previous grade of this coin, or do they think it the coin will definitely upgrade to at least a 66 at pcgs or cac? Why bury yourself in 1 coin? Spread out the funds and bury yourself in a collection of items when the market downturns.
The seller of the coin on the GC auction hit the jackpot with 2 risk takers. I bet that person was expecting to sell at a breakeven/loss.
@1madman said:
That’s what I’m getting at. What did these 2 high bidders foresee this coin doing? Were they both totally ignorant of previous auction results and previous grade of this coin, or do they think it the coin will definitely upgrade to at least a 66 at pcgs or cac? Why bury yourself in 1 coin? Spread out the funds and bury yourself in a collection of items when the market downturns.
The seller of the coin on the GC auction hit the jackpot with 2 risk takers. I bet that person was expecting to sell at a breakeven/loss.
It's one result with one coin. Auction it again next week and you may get a different result.
I would also point out that 2 years in a hot market will result in price increases.
PCGS/CAC vs NGC, no CAC
Too many variables to try and draw generic conclusions. The original buyer might have been willing to go $400k but no one was pushing them.
@coinbuf said:
Different auction venues and the addition of the CAC likely account for the price difference assuming it is the same coin. I have been seeing better "deals" on Heritage or Stacks than on GC, seems that everything on GC gets bid to the moon.
To me, Great Collections seems like a much more attractive site for "everyman" collectors. Auctions close every week at the same time, great stuff across a wide range of price points, terrific service. I would guess GC draws more collectors' eyes on a regular basis, resulting in strong competition for nice stuff.
I disagree with the GC premise you present, but why would paying more be attractive to "everyman" collectors? How does a 6 figure coin reflect "everyman" bidders?
@1madman said:
That’s what I’m getting at. What did these 2 high bidders foresee this coin doing? Were they both totally ignorant of previous auction results and previous grade of this coin, or do they think it the coin will definitely upgrade to at least a 66 at pcgs or cac? Why bury yourself in 1 coin? Spread out the funds and bury yourself in a collection of items when the market downturns.
The seller of the coin on the GC auction hit the jackpot with 2 risk takers. I bet that person was expecting to sell at a breakeven/loss.
Why did the bidders have to foresee the coin doing anything or be risk takers?
I realize that a lot of posters on this forum may be dealers or flippers or just looking for a “score” but not everyone has those same concerns. If you purchase something with discretionary funds (and some of us have more discretionary funds than others) then it doesn’t matter what the object might eventually sell for.
I buy artwork, hallmarked English silver, pottery from the different countries I visit, pewter creamers (the wife’s collection) and coins and do not concern myself with what those objects will eventually sell for if in fact they are actually sold.
I recently purchased a foreign coin from the Heritage auction for 2.5 times the price guide. At least 1 other person wanted it almost as much as myself. Am I “buried” in the coin? Doesn’t matter, I wanted this particular coin and I got it for a price that I have no trouble paying.
On the flip side, I have been in the process of selling a lot of my US coins and even though I wasn’t overly concerned with what I paid for the coins at the time of purchase, most have showed a healthy profit (time can do that) as well as 1 coin that sold for 10x my original purchase price. I have never sold any of my other collectibles so I guess I am “buried” in them!
@Cougar1978 said:
...Furthermore what if coin goes bad in the holder or eye appeal depletion over that period of time? Reaction to atmosphere, biological attack, etc....
@Proofmorgan said:
The buyer could have bought the original coin and taken it on a walkthrough with JA and asked if he’d sticker it at 65. I’ve sent coins to dealers to do this before.
Interesting result, but some of the price difference can be explained by what has happened to high-end gold over the past 2 years. The rest of the difference is likely what the coin is wearing.... and the weather, and the particular bidders who showed up, and their mood, and the alignment of the planets. I've spent some time observing whales. Sometimes they do funny stuff.
Another point..... when a coin has a long provenance and is clearly in the top handful of coins for a particular issue, the risks surrounding regrading, crackout, or crossover are real, but mitigated significantly by the identity of the coin. It has a certain gravitas irrespective of its holder.
Agree on all points regarding the photography.
It's going to be so interesting to see how the market treats the new CAC slabs.
1madman
Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Different auction venues and the addition of the CAC likely account for the price difference assuming it is the same coin. I have been seeing better "deals" on Heritage or Stacks than on GC, seems that everything on GC gets bid to the moon.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Different coin.
Dave
2 years later in a hot market, with a change to the right plastic and add a sticker ... I mean, yeah, big difference, but it seems Jan 2020 to Sep 2021 there were plenty of bargains too, if you were looking under the right rocks and weren't afraid of the "outside" noise.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Downgrade? Sounds Duncey
Downgrade then negative P&L likely result. Like pitching the ball way back a loss the result.
I play a spread offense / 4 wr (aerial threat, speedster, Mr Reliable) plus bulls eye 5 star QB. 1 RB - a wrecking ball type. All 4 WR going out then hit one for big gainer. Rinse and repeat. The strong RB can get ball in end zone if we are close to goal line.
To me, Great Collections seems like a much more attractive site for "everyman" collectors. Auctions close every week at the same time, great stuff across a wide range of price points, terrific service. I would guess GC draws more collectors' eyes on a regular basis, resulting in strong competition for nice stuff.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I have done well on GC picking up nice stuff for inventory. It has done well on bourse and online store. Certainly there is material there that will draw a bid war. I stay away from those like a WR double teamed. Kind of like a spread offense QB with 4 WR out there. I just cycle to the open WR or one has chance make the play. I like their BIN stuff - sometimes will pick up one - desert for the order.
I think downgrading material especially big ticket a mistake. One instead should consider their procurement performance. I realize a lot of them play the holder / sticker game. However it’s more about finding the buyer who will pay the money. Once it’s in auction its out of your control. YMMV.
It’s the same coin.
Trying to downgrade a six figure coin isn’t for the faint of heart. How do you know it will downgrade and how do you know it will sticker if it downgrades? Unless the original buyer is an expert or is very well connected this seems like a risky strategy.
I think that was a smart move- I’m only buying gold in PCGS/CAC. On the other hand I have some PF69 Morgans in NGC holders that I do not plan to cross into PR68 PCGS/CAC holders because it would likely be a financial loss at auction.
The 1803 is a real beauty. Many would like own that. I would not want downgrade. Keep as is - if necessary commission an expert in that area represent me if selling. I don’t believe down grading coins bc of the sticker or holder game.
The thing that really gets me on this is why is somebody buying such expensive big ticket material then now buyers remorse? Downgrade?
I think SB has the venue advantage here. I think it is all the PCGS plastic with the CAC sticker combo.
This is not uncommon. Many large dealers do this frequently including Legend. This is why the CAC only mantra really irks me. Many of the “CAC only group” will publicly trash the coins to lower the price so they can do precisely this IMHO. An astute buyer could have had an expert like Mark Feld or Doug Winter lot view and save six figures.
And that is not to suggest that every coin will downgrade and sticker the grade below either. There are traps for the unweary; however, you could have a true expert lot view for 3% of your winning bid or so just as people did before CAC. How much does the sticker cost? To me that is a needless tax.
Wouldn't it be easier to just crack it out and request a lower grade ? Of course not, it may not even grade ! You see it's all just a game that has been instituted by certain dealers in order to make their coins more marketable to certain buyers.
The interesting part of this coin - the extra star - is another numismatic mystery. The how and why it was added has never been factually determined. Cheers, RickO
I’m going to conjure a guess that the person who bought the coin from Stacks was hoping to get a straight cross at 66 with pcgs and didn’t make it. Clearly the coin had to have been at cac while it was in the NGC holder and it didn’t pass. It must have went to pcgs under cross at any grade, and it came back as the 65, then went to cac where it finally green beaned.
I’m surprised by the GC auction result, as the bidders must think this has the potential to jump to a 66 at pcgs? I mean even if it only goes 65+, they spent double the past auction result buying it, meaning they already paid for the +.
It’s a nice coin but it’s got “ticks” on both sides probably limiting the grade to where it is now.
So do you think the coin has doubled in price in 2 years, GC has phenomenal marketing skills, Stack’s auctions stink, or it’s a lock pcgs 66?
That’s a heck of an expensive mistake to buy a big ticket coin like that believing it will upgrade. If your going to play, be prepared to pay. I don’t feel sorry for those people or their buyers remorse. I have seen all kind of types of zany if not terrible situations here but this one stands out. Auctions can be like throwing a Hail Mary pass - if nobody shows up to catch it - it can be ugly. But the buyer who intercepts the pickoff may have something he can put in his inventory try get double bubble money (keystone markup) or nifty fifty (50 pct markup).
But it stickered. There are MANY examples like this out there. Some coins in the same exact plastic increase in value with the addition of the green bean. Here is one particularly egregious episode IMHO:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1038530/cac-tax/p1
I tend to be in the mindset that every coin will sticker at cac if the label grade is low enough (let’s forget coins that grade poor1-good4 right now). Your auction example is fantastic, and brings me back to say that maybe Stacks auctions are the problem.
Kind of makes me think that the way to make money in the coin market is get your coins stickered by cac yourself, don’t buy them already stickered as you’re likely to be buried by the markup costs.
Does anyone think the original coin in this thread is a $1 million coin in a 65 holder over the next 5 years?
The buyer could have bought the original coin and taken it on a walkthrough with JA and asked if he’d sticker it at 65. I’ve sent coins to dealers to do this before.
Contrary to your mindset, not all coins would sticker at CAC, no matter how low the assigned grade. That’s because they don’t agree that all straight-grade coins merit straight grades.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No don’t see much of increase in it if any. Many feel market crash on horizon. What is your game plan if that? However a wealthy buyer with lots of cash could come along. Furthermore what if coin goes bad in the holder or eye appeal depletion over that period of time? Reaction to atmosphere, biological attack, etc. You plan move it in 6 months right?
That’s what I’m getting at. What did these 2 high bidders foresee this coin doing? Were they both totally ignorant of previous auction results and previous grade of this coin, or do they think it the coin will definitely upgrade to at least a 66 at pcgs or cac? Why bury yourself in 1 coin? Spread out the funds and bury yourself in a collection of items when the market downturns.
The seller of the coin on the GC auction hit the jackpot with 2 risk takers. I bet that person was expecting to sell at a breakeven/loss.
It's one result with one coin. Auction it again next week and you may get a different result.
I would also point out that 2 years in a hot market will result in price increases.
PCGS/CAC vs NGC, no CAC
Too many variables to try and draw generic conclusions. The original buyer might have been willing to go $400k but no one was pushing them.
I disagree with the GC premise you present, but why would paying more be attractive to "everyman" collectors? How does a 6 figure coin reflect "everyman" bidders?
Why did the bidders have to foresee the coin doing anything or be risk takers?
I realize that a lot of posters on this forum may be dealers or flippers or just looking for a “score” but not everyone has those same concerns. If you purchase something with discretionary funds (and some of us have more discretionary funds than others) then it doesn’t matter what the object might eventually sell for.
I buy artwork, hallmarked English silver, pottery from the different countries I visit, pewter creamers (the wife’s collection) and coins and do not concern myself with what those objects will eventually sell for if in fact they are actually sold.
I recently purchased a foreign coin from the Heritage auction for 2.5 times the price guide. At least 1 other person wanted it almost as much as myself. Am I “buried” in the coin? Doesn’t matter, I wanted this particular coin and I got it for a price that I have no trouble paying.
On the flip side, I have been in the process of selling a lot of my US coins and even though I wasn’t overly concerned with what I paid for the coins at the time of purchase, most have showed a healthy profit (time can do that) as well as 1 coin that sold for 10x my original purchase price. I have never sold any of my other collectibles so I guess I am “buried” in them!
Joe.
Six figure coin and GC's professional imaging can't take a photo that's in focus. Nice.
@airplanenut agree with the photo assessment. GCs pic it flat and lifeless.
Martin
Oh, the drama....
Must be nice to have JA preview your coin/coins.
Interesting result, but some of the price difference can be explained by what has happened to high-end gold over the past 2 years. The rest of the difference is likely what the coin is wearing.... and the weather, and the particular bidders who showed up, and their mood, and the alignment of the planets. I've spent some time observing whales. Sometimes they do funny stuff.
Another point..... when a coin has a long provenance and is clearly in the top handful of coins for a particular issue, the risks surrounding regrading, crackout, or crossover are real, but mitigated significantly by the identity of the coin. It has a certain gravitas irrespective of its holder.
Agree on all points regarding the photography.
It's going to be so interesting to see how the market treats the new CAC slabs.