The guy is a clown. How's his portfolio done the last 5-15 years for his clients ? He bought the March 2020 low, right ?
Another carnival barker who wants to be a stopped clock. No thanks....and nobody here should be paying attention to this perma-bear who lacks basic financial understanding.
Betting on Gloom & Doom is a losing proposition over the long haul. It sells books and newsleters but it never lasts. Go talk to the 1970's Gold Bugs if you doubt me.
@meluaufeet: regarding Mandelbrot, agree, though we are talking about about a totally different league. Mandelbrot is one of the few true geniuses of the 20th century.
“Human nature yearns to see order and hierarchy in the world. It will invent it where it cannot find it.”
“In finance, I believe the conventional models and their more recent ‘fixes’ violate the Hippocratic Oath to ‘do no harm.’ They are not merely wrong; they are dangerously wrong.”
Some basics:
The market is unpredictable.
Markets are risky.
Trouble runs in streaks.
Markets have a personality.
Markets mislead.
Market time is relative.
“If you can find some market properties that remain consistent over time or place, you can … make sounder financial decisions.”
Ben Bernake - "Subprime mortgages have been contained."
Jerome Powell - "Inflation is transitionary."
And now we are to believe:
Janet Yellon: "Not anticipating a downturn in the economy."
Bernanke and Powell are at least savvy academics. Yellen is a hack. Not a bad Fed Chairwoman but very political.
Ben Bernanke did lots of work on price inflation and the gold standard in the 1920's and 1930's. Good readings if you want to check out his work (and Barry Eichengreen's stuff, too).
Ben Bernake - "Subprime mortgages have been contained."
Jerome Powell - "Inflation is transitionary."
And now we are to believe:
Janet Yellon: "Not anticipating a downturn in the economy."
Bernanke and Powell are at least savvy academics. Yellen is a hack. Not a bad Fed Chairwoman but very political.
Ben Bernanke did lots of work on price inflation and the gold standard in the 1920's and 1930's. Good readings if you want to check out his work (and Barry Eichengreen's stuff, too).
LOL. Just look at the mess they created and their inability to lead us out of it. You funny.
Savvy "accademics," in what, theory? Real world problems require real world experience. Don't know what's worse; having them run the economy or having them teach the next two or three generations of economic leaders.
Ben Bernake - "Subprime mortgages have been contained."
Jerome Powell - "Inflation is transitionary."
And now we are to believe:
Janet Yellon: "Not anticipating a downturn in the economy."
Bernanke and Powell are at least savvy academics. Yellen is a hack. Not a bad Fed Chairwoman but very political.
Ben Bernanke did lots of work on price inflation and the gold standard in the 1920's and 1930's. Good readings if you want to check out his work (and Barry Eichengreen's stuff, too).
@GoldFinger1969, I normally agree with you, but you lost me with this. They are not savvy academics. Academics, yes, so are a lot of other government hacks.
On a side note, I didn't realize the gov't had confiscated a nice pile of btc, appx 205.5k. I don't own any btc... but if I did I'd be worried they'll sell chunks of it over the next couple of weeks.
So why aren’t we already in recession?
One plausible theory is that during the pandemic the Fed created a truly insane amount of currency and dumped it into the system. That cash continues to work its way through, causing prices to keep rising and consumers to keep spending.
But the credit spigot is now turned off, so when the last of the pandemic funny-money dribbles through the economy, the trends highlighted here will become the dominant drivers of future activity. And we’ll finally fall off that cliff. Prepare for an ugly year.
As I recall, the banking laws were changed about five years ago, such that the money in your bank account is a loan to the bank and the money belongs to the bank. You are merely an unsecured creditor.
Limit your exposure to the cartel.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
As I recall, the banking laws were changed about five years ago, such that the money in your bank account is a loan to the bank and the money belongs to the bank. You are merely an unsecured creditor.
Your recall is wrong. You are not an unsecured creditor for any amount under the FDIC limit. Above that, you are a secured creditor.
“By law, after insured depositors are paid, uninsured depositors are paid next, followed by general creditors and then stockholders.”
That is in reference to the bailout order for account holders with FDIC funds after the bank has failed. It's a completely different order when bailing out the actual bank - account holders and their balances are among the first to do the bailing.
@derryb -- I don't understand your comment. Are you saying there is a scenario where the bank does not fail, but depositor funds are at risk? I would have thought that all of the discussion above related to bank failures.
@Higashiyama said: @derryb -- I don't understand your comment. Are you saying there is a scenario where the bank does not fail, but depositor funds are at risk? I would have thought that all of the discussion above related to bank failures.
There is always some risk keeping dollars in a bank. Naturally when a bank fails the risk just greatly increased. FDIC can't cover all funds in all banks at one time. Here and there it is capable of putting out small fires. It has no where near the funds to put out a wildfire. Like dollars the FDIC is built on blind faith, it is akin to a marketing ploy to convince savers their money is safe.
There is a law on the books about the ownership of bank deposits. FDIC conflicts with that, apparently. There hasn't been a legal challenge as far as I know, but why wait for that?
@jmski52 said:
There is a law on the books about the ownership of bank deposits. FDIC conflicts with that, apparently. There hasn't been a legal challenge as far as I know, but why wait for that?
No conflict. Basic bankruptcy law. Depositors take precedence over unsecured creditors.
@derryb said:
What stock trades at almost 50 times its prospective earnings, 40 times its book value and still have investors chase it higher and yet higher?
@derryb said:
What stock trades at almost 50 times its prospective earnings, 40 times its book value and still have investors chase it higher and yet higher?
Comments
Credentials don’t matter
I want performance results
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I happen to enjoy Jim Rickards books. I enjoy Mandelbrot more, but whatever.
Great credentials, lousy investment advice, IMO.
Betting on Gloom & Doom is a losing proposition over the long haul. It sells books and newsleters but it never lasts. Go talk to the 1970's Gold Bugs if you doubt me.
@meluaufeet: regarding Mandelbrot, agree, though we are talking about about a totally different league. Mandelbrot is one of the few true geniuses of the 20th century.
@Higashiyama Yes, I agree. He changed my economic life+.
Recap:
Ben Bernake - "Subprime mortgages have been contained."
Jerome Powell - "Inflation is transitionary."
And now we are to believe:
Janet Yellon: "Not anticipating a downturn in the economy."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Some Mandelbrot insights:
“Human nature yearns to see order and hierarchy in the world. It will invent it where it cannot find it.”
“In finance, I believe the conventional models and their more recent ‘fixes’ violate the Hippocratic Oath to ‘do no harm.’ They are not merely wrong; they are dangerously wrong.”
Some basics:
The market is unpredictable.
Markets are risky.
Trouble runs in streaks.
Markets have a personality.
Markets mislead.
Market time is relative.
“If you can find some market properties that remain consistent over time or place, you can … make sounder financial decisions.”
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Bernanke and Powell are at least savvy academics. Yellen is a hack. Not a bad Fed Chairwoman but very political.
Ben Bernanke did lots of work on price inflation and the gold standard in the 1920's and 1930's. Good readings if you want to check out his work (and Barry Eichengreen's stuff, too).
LOL. Just look at the mess they created and their inability to lead us out of it. You funny.
Savvy "accademics," in what, theory? Real world problems require real world experience. Don't know what's worse; having them run the economy or having them teach the next two or three generations of economic leaders.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
@GoldFinger1969, I normally agree with you, but you lost me with this. They are not savvy academics. Academics, yes, so are a lot of other government hacks.
Both Bernanke and Powell are politically sophisticated. I assume that is Goldfinger1969’s point.
On a side note, I didn't realize the gov't had confiscated a nice pile of btc, appx 205.5k. I don't own any btc... but if I did I'd be worried they'll sell chunks of it over the next couple of weeks.
I enjoy Mandelbrot more, but whatever.
He changed my economic life+.
Fractals? How have you applied them to investing? Admittedly, I haven't read him in detail.
I knew it would happen.
WTF? Looks the resident fear mongers are once again validated.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
John Rubin:
So why aren’t we already in recession?
One plausible theory is that during the pandemic the Fed created a truly insane amount of currency and dumped it into the system. That cash continues to work its way through, causing prices to keep rising and consumers to keep spending.
But the credit spigot is now turned off, so when the last of the pandemic funny-money dribbles through the economy, the trends highlighted here will become the dominant drivers of future activity. And we’ll finally fall off that cliff. Prepare for an ugly year.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Who owns chip stocks ? 😄
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
A lot of buffalo chips tossed around here.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
As I recall, the banking laws were changed about five years ago, such that the money in your bank account is a loan to the bank and the money belongs to the bank. You are merely an unsecured creditor.
Limit your exposure to the cartel.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52:
From fdic.gov:
“By law, after insured depositors are paid, uninsured depositors are paid next, followed by general creditors and then stockholders.”
Your recall is wrong. You are not an unsecured creditor for any amount under the FDIC limit. Above that, you are a secured creditor.
That is in reference to the bailout order for account holders with FDIC funds after the bank has failed. It's a completely different order when bailing out the actual bank - account holders and their balances are among the first to do the bailing.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
@derryb -- I don't understand your comment. Are you saying there is a scenario where the bank does not fail, but depositor funds are at risk? I would have thought that all of the discussion above related to bank failures.
While I can't be prevented from participating in a run on my bank, it looks like, in another effort to prop up weak banks, DOJ is attempting to prevent me from shorting "bad" bank stocks.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
There is always some risk keeping dollars in a bank. Naturally when a bank fails the risk just greatly increased. FDIC can't cover all funds in all banks at one time. Here and there it is capable of putting out small fires. It has no where near the funds to put out a wildfire. Like dollars the FDIC is built on blind faith, it is akin to a marketing ploy to convince savers their money is safe.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
There is a law on the books about the ownership of bank deposits. FDIC conflicts with that, apparently. There hasn't been a legal challenge as far as I know, but why wait for that?
https://bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=eb12433f10187713JmltdHM9MTY4NTQ5MTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0yYzlmZTcxZi03NTc3LTZhMTktM2NmNi1mNmJiNzQxODZiYzYmaW5zaWQ9NTIyNA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=2c9fe71f-7577-6a19-3cf6-f6bb74186bc6&psq=are+bank+depositors+unsecured+creditors&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaW52ZXN0b3BlZGlhLmNvbS90ZXJtcy91L3Vuc2VjdXJlZGNyZWRpdG9yLmFzcA&ntb=1
Yellen did specifically state that she couldn't guarantee that small to mid-sized banks would be bailed out by FDIC. Period.
I knew it would happen.
What stock trades at almost 50 times its prospective earnings, 40 times its book value and still have investors chase it higher and yet higher?
Can't Prop Up Market Forever
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
No conflict. Basic bankruptcy law. Depositors take precedence over unsecured creditors.
Depositors were made unsecured creditors.
This was only 3 or 4 years ago.
I knew it would happen.
Those are flying today !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Not all unsecured creditors are ranked the same. Auto bankruptcies, for instance.
Nothing collapsed in Martinville except maybe a tree or two
Martin
Big bird wondering why the sky is a strange color.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm wondering at what price Tyler values this stock. I'm a big fan of this source, bye the bye.
Check out Sara Eisen interview with Ray Dalio this morning CNBC
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Met Ray 35 years ago at an investment conference in Florida....why I never gave him my resume, I'll never know.
Economy still appears to be Boomin! RGDS!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Well I guess I might take some profits here and with the proceeds buy some gold .
🤓
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.