@derryb said:
We now have the second and third largest bank failures in US history within a couple of days of each other. It's a real shame that the few here who warned of this were called names by some of the others. I wonder what other conspiracy theories will unfold as being reality in the coming days.
the real conspiracy theory is the selling of the US economy as being strong.
The reason the bank failures are #2 and #3 in size is because the U.S. economy is 50% larger than 2008-09 and banks are bigger, too.
This is NOTHING compared to 2008-09...the 1980's S&L Crisis...Texas banks 1980's.....or 1932-33.
As a former bank analyst, let me tell you that SBNY and SIVB failed for the most basic of bank reasons: a mismatch in assets and liabilities which resulted in a run. The seasoning changes over the decades, but the meal is the same.
The long-duration bonds they purchased took a hit (but not fatal -- the rise in short rates was worse).
Their funding as you know was composed of "hot money" ready to flee at the first sign of trouble.
Their liquidity was low, leverage a bit high.
SIVB's management was incompetent as they remained liability sensitive during the Fed's rate hikes and then SWITCHED to asset sensitive in the last few weeks.
What I gather from the article, along with some of my own thinking about the situation, is that SVB didn't really fail because of the unrealized bond losses. They failed due to the bank run that occurred when SVB reported those unrealized losses.
And what makes it different for the remaining banks, most of whom are also experiencing the same unrealized losses? Should they falsify their reporting of the losses? What happens when they report the truth?
Look for a sudden change in reporting requirements.
Yes, I am sure that SVB executives wish now that they had not reported the bond losses, especially since there would have been no losses had they been able to hold the bonds to maturity.
The US Treasury and FED are probably very worried about this situation. So I would not be surprised to see a change in reporting requirements and reserve requirements. I would expect the changes would allow financial institutions to omit such requirements on the US Treasury Bond portions of their portfolios.
In other words, I expect that in the future banks will report their financial standing based on "mark to maturity", instead of the current "mark to market".
There is a lot to correct in the prior several posts, but I will focus on a few key items:
SVB did not fail because they were investing in government bonds. They failed because they invested in assets with duration far exceeding their liabilities, and they got crunched when rates rose. This is an amateurish mistake. If they had invested in shorter duration govt bonds there would have been no issue.
This has nothing to do with the repeal of Glass Steagall. Banks have always been in the business of taking deposits and making loans (ie, investing those deposits in fixed income obligations). Buying government bonds is a form of loan and was perfectly acceptable under Glass Steagall.
As @GoldFinger1969 indicates, it is a wild exaggeration to describe SVB as the second largest bank failure in US history. SVB was barely in the top twenty US banks. Their assets of about $ 200 billion compare to assets of well over $ 1 trillion in the case of the top 5, and roughly $ 4 trillion for the largest.
SVB and Signature were unusual in the volume of uninsured deposits they held. This lead to the panic. (as an aside, this can be viewed as a risk management failure on the part of the depositors; never put all your eggs in one basket.)
In a single weekend the Treasury/Fed Reserve developed the framework of a resolution plan that will assure stability of the system.
In any case, for those who believe their prophesies of impending doom are upon us ... think again.
"bonds lose value as interest rates rise. And this is what happened to Silicon Valley Bank."
Look for government bond losses to cause further bank failures. Had it not been repeal of the Glass Steagl Act, banks would not be allowed to invest depositors money. The kicker is that Gov. Bonds are supposed to be "safe." LOL
They are.....that is referring to paying back of your principal investment. Has nothing to do with the market value of the bonds.
Yeah, there's alot of financial illiteracy going around these days. Most serious buyers of pms have done more than an analysis - they've lived it for decades. And serious buyers of stocks or bonds or any other financial instruments ought to at least know what a sensitivity analysis is, and how to incorporate it into their own portfolio. But, I'm sure that's not the case, especially when it's just so easy to turn into Jim Cramer.
There's a reason why no PM investors are on the Forbes 400 list. You don't compound wealth with PMs.
I agree there's alot of financial illiteracy around. Most people regurgitate what they hear others say or write.
Few do independent analysis.
Just finished looking at SIVB's 10-K and other regulatory filings. What a cluster****.
These jokers had as much as 100% of their capital at risk from losses in the bond portfolios of the HTM and AFS portfolios. While there should be no reason for a bank to sell HTM securities under normal conditions, most mid-sized banks are looking at 20-40% losses and the Money Center Banks (JPM, C, etc.) are looking at 10-15%.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
There's a reason why no PM investors are on the Forbes 400 list. You don't compound wealth with PMs.
We already established that precious metals are not an "investment". They are a speculation and/or insurance.
But how many of those "Forbes 400" people have some bullion in their holdings ?
Note that you don't gain wealth by earning compound interest when the rate of inflation is equal to or higher than that interest rate.
@Higashiyama said:
There is a lot to correct in the prior several posts, but I will focus on a few key items:
SVB did not fail because they were investing in government bonds. They failed because they invested in assets with duration far exceeding their liabilities, and they got crunched when rates rose. This is an amateurish mistake. If they had invested in shorter duration govt bonds there would have been no issue.
did you mean to say they failed because they invested in the wrong GOVERNMENT BONDS? LOL
This has nothing to do with the repeal of Glass Steagall. Banks have always been in the business of taking deposits and making loans (ie, investing those deposits in fixed income obligations). Buying government bonds is a form of loan and was perfectly acceptable under Glass Steagall.
This and 2008 have everything to do with changing law that now allows banks to igamble (invest) with investor funds. Glass Steagall would have prevented this and future similar banking failures.
As @GoldFinger1969 indicates, it is a wild exaggeration to describe SVB as the second largest bank failure in US history. SVB was barely in the top twenty US banks. Their assets of about $ 200 billion compare to assets of well over $ 1 trillion in the case of the top 5, and roughly $ 4 trillion for the largest.
Fact remians that regardless of their size they are the second and third largest failures.
SVB and Signature were unusual in the volume of uninsured deposits they held. This lead to the panic. (as an aside, this can be viewed as a risk management failure on the part of the depositors; never put all your eggs in one basket.)
One basket was not the problem. Wrong basket, in the face of rising interest rates, was the problem.
In a single weekend the Treasury/Fed Reserve developed the framework of a resolution plan that will assure stability of the system.
Recklessley throwing tax dollars at a banking problem does not take long. 2008 taught us that. This fix always guarantees a repeat. The fact that they acted so quickly and to raise the loss limit demonstrates their fear of the public voting with their feet. Their whole ponzi is dependent on convincing the public that depositor money is safe. FDIC is simply a publicity campaign to do so. It's balance sheet of rescue funds is less that 1% of the accounts it insures. Note that this time limits of FDIC coverage had to be breeched to calm the public. A truely safe bank does not build its preputation by backstopping its losses with taxpayer money. FED forgets that depositors are taxpayers, Unfortunately taxpayers soon forget when the FED hangs them out to dry.
In any case, for those who believe their prophesies of impending doom are upon us ... think again.
No doom here, there's a solution to prevent banks from investing my life savings and I wasted no time in making use of it.
There is a lot to correct in the prior several posts, but I will focus on a few key items:
SVB did not fail because they were investing in government bonds. They failed because they invested in assets with duration far exceeding their liabilities, and they got crunched when rates rose. This is an amateurish mistake. If they had invested in shorter duration govt bonds there would have been no issue.
This has nothing to do with the repeal of Glass Steagall. Banks have always been in the business of taking deposits and making loans (ie, investing those deposits in fixed income obligations). Buying government bonds is a form of loan and was perfectly acceptable under Glass Steagall.
As @GoldFinger1969 indicates, it is a wild exaggeration to describe SVB as the second largest bank failure in US history. SVB was barely in the top twenty US banks. Their assets of about $ 200 billion compare to assets of well over $ 1 trillion in the case of the top 5, and roughly $ 4 trillion for the largest.
SVB and Signature were unusual in the volume of uninsured deposits they held. This lead to the panic. (as an aside, this can be viewed as a risk management failure on the part of the depositors; never put all your eggs in one basket.)
In a single weekend the Treasury/Fed Reserve developed the framework of a resolution plan that will assure stability of the system.
In any case, for those who believe their prophesies of impending doom are upon us ... think again.
My local bank has an out-of-order sign on the ATM this Saturday morning. Makes me wonder if it’s really broke. I’ll try another branch and see if it’s out too.
@DNADave said:
My local bank has an out-of-order sign on the ATM this Saturday morning. Makes me wonder if it’s really broke. I’ll try another branch and see if it’s out too.
That's so strange, so does mine and I went to another branch atm and it too was down. Hopefully it's just out of service and not something else.
@SilverPlatinum commented “Here you go, Hostile forced takeover at 1/4 of the price by the government on Sunday (March 19th) for Credit Suisse bank!!!!”
Two observations:
“The price” is rather hard to determine in a situation like this. Shareholders should very possibly be happy with anything greater than zero.
“The government” in this case, of course, is the Swiss government, which is providing 100 billion in liquidity to make this happen. We likely benefit from this instance of government intervention.
@Higashiyama said: @SilverPlatinum commented “Here you go, Hostile forced takeover at 1/4 of the price by the government on Sunday (March 19th) for Credit Suisse bank!!!!”
Two observations:
“The price” is rather hard to determine in a situation like this. Shareholders should very possibly be happy with anything greater than zero.
“The government” in this case, of course, is the Swiss government, which is providing 100 billion in liquidity to make this happen. We likely benefit from this instance of government intervention.
wait until we find out, due to US banking exposure to CS, that the FED also provided CS bailout funds. would not be the first time.
@derryb said:
then why does it move up when dollar/faith are down. LOL
Gold only has merits when compared to alternatives, such as the dollar.
Gold has moved up plenty of times when the dollar has moved up. Over sustained time periods, a weaker dollar helps because other countries who buy large gold amounts find the cost lower in their currencies.
@jmski52 said:
Just because the dollar index rises against other currencies, that doesn’t mean that the inverse relationship isn’t >happening.
The dollar index has no bearing on gold’s relation to the dollar.
If the dollar index (DXY is the symbol) is rising, it means the dollar is strengthening and this is a headwind (at least) for higher gold prices.
@SilverPlatinum said:
wow, watching the bank stocks collapsing on CNBC makes me more confident holding physical precious metals.......
At least no one can force me to sell my precious metal for $1, I can always ask whatever price I want......
In no way have you have you "proven" anything. The dollar can rise against other currencies for a year while gold is also rising against those same currencies, but that bears no relation to the fact that the relationship between gold and the dollar is an inverse relationship - always and over time. Google a chart - there are hundreds of them showing the same thing.
You should be asking the charlatans you follow to "prove it" rather than allowing them to stroke your fears and emotions.
The only charlatans I encounter online are the ones that snipe away at posts like this by talking about trees and fears and emotions - but offering exactly nothing germaine to the discussion at hand.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
When has the dollar moved up when gold is moving up? Almost never. It's an inverse relationship. Find me a chart that says otherwise.
Gold moved up with the US Dollar
from 01/2010 to 06/2010
from 05/2011 to 07/2011
from 08/2018 to 03/2020..............approx 1-1/2 years.
I'm sure there's more but I only looked at the 2009-2020 period.
I used the Net Dania 5 star gold and USDX weekly and monthly charts. You can look them up for free.
The U.S. Dollar Index contains six component currencies: the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss franc. So when talking about the US Dollar chart....we are in fact talking about these "other" 6 currencies.
The Euro is by far the largest component and plays a key liquidity role via the Euro/JPY currency pair. This tends to tell when money is flowing into "safe" or "riskier" assets. So it probably plays the largest role in the gold price. To some extent the pound, krona, and Franc do as well. The Canadian dollar (and the Australian dollar) tend to move when commodities are moving since they are heavy into mining, forestry, etc. Strong CAD and AUD currency moves tend to help push gold higher. When stocks are getting all the money via a rising Eur/JPY ratio gold flounders. If you look at the major moves in gold from 1999-2011 and then again during 2016 and 2018 to 2020 it was done via falling Eur/JPY ratio. I think the Eur/Jpy pair by itself (and also the other pairs of CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, etc) give a better overall picture vs the US Dollar Index.
Comments
The reason the bank failures are #2 and #3 in size is because the U.S. economy is 50% larger than 2008-09 and banks are bigger, too.
This is NOTHING compared to 2008-09...the 1980's S&L Crisis...Texas banks 1980's.....or 1932-33.
As a former bank analyst, let me tell you that SBNY and SIVB failed for the most basic of bank reasons: a mismatch in assets and liabilities which resulted in a run. The seasoning changes over the decades, but the meal is the same.
SIVB's management was incompetent as they remained liability sensitive during the Fed's rate hikes and then SWITCHED to asset sensitive in the last few weeks.
They didn't know what they were doing.
In other words, I expect that in the future banks will report their financial standing based on "mark to maturity", instead of the current "mark to market".
There is a lot to correct in the prior several posts, but I will focus on a few key items:
In any case, for those who believe their prophesies of impending doom are upon us ... think again.
They are.....that is referring to paying back of your principal investment. Has nothing to do with the market value of the bonds.
There's a reason why no PM investors are on the Forbes 400 list.
You don't compound wealth with PMs.
I agree there's alot of financial illiteracy around. Most people regurgitate what they hear others say or write.
Few do independent analysis.
Just finished looking at SIVB's 10-K and other regulatory filings. What a cluster****.
These jokers had as much as 100% of their capital at risk from losses in the bond portfolios of the HTM and AFS portfolios. While there should be no reason for a bank to sell HTM securities under normal conditions, most mid-sized banks are looking at 20-40% losses and the Money Center Banks (JPM, C, etc.) are looking at 10-15%.
Add in an unstable deposit base and..............
Probably no "impending doom". But the possibly of an extended period of stagflation is increasing.
We already established that precious metals are not an "investment". They are a speculation and/or insurance.
But how many of those "Forbes 400" people have some bullion in their holdings ?
Note that you don't gain wealth by earning compound interest when the rate of inflation is equal to or higher than that interest rate.
SVB reminds me of MF Global, in that their bets might have won if they had the bankroll to play it out.
did you mean to say they failed because they invested in the wrong GOVERNMENT BONDS? LOL
This and 2008 have everything to do with changing law that now allows banks to igamble (invest) with investor funds. Glass Steagall would have prevented this and future similar banking failures.
Fact remians that regardless of their size they are the second and third largest failures.
One basket was not the problem. Wrong basket, in the face of rising interest rates, was the problem.
Recklessley throwing tax dollars at a banking problem does not take long. 2008 taught us that. This fix always guarantees a repeat. The fact that they acted so quickly and to raise the loss limit demonstrates their fear of the public voting with their feet. Their whole ponzi is dependent on convincing the public that depositor money is safe. FDIC is simply a publicity campaign to do so. It's balance sheet of rescue funds is less that 1% of the accounts it insures. Note that this time limits of FDIC coverage had to be breeched to calm the public. A truely safe bank does not build its preputation by backstopping its losses with taxpayer money. FED forgets that depositors are taxpayers, Unfortunately taxpayers soon forget when the FED hangs them out to dry.
No doom here, there's a solution to prevent banks from investing my life savings and I wasted no time in making use of it.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Seems > @Higashiyama said:
❤️❤️❤️
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold hit a new all time high in both the Japanese Yen and British Pound today.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
inflation or increased risk?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Big Picture: All of this volatility is GOOD for the gold price, over time.
the world’s economy is now based upon unsound banks dealing in unsound currencies. Both have degenerated considerably from their origins.
"An honest banker should no more lend out demand deposit money than Allied Van and Storage should lend out the furniture you’ve paid it to store."
If It Looks Like A Bailout And Walks Like A Bailout It's Probably A Bailout.
We're gonna need a bigger boat FDIC fund.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Interesting if true. Where's the gutter stand in those currencies? THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
@blitzdude asked "Interesting if true. Where's the gutter stand in those currencies? THKS!"
Highest ever price of silver in Japanese Yen: about JPY 11,900 per ounce. (back during the Hunt Brothers days)
Current price of silver in Japanese Yen: about JPY 2,900 per ounce.
Thanks. I should of known the gutter just doesn't stack up. As for the Au they don't call it metal of the kings for nothing. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Weird day as gold rose 3% or $70. BitCoin strong, too.
.> @GoldFinger1969 said:
faith in FED is dwindling.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
My local bank has an out-of-order sign on the ATM this Saturday morning. Makes me wonder if it’s really broke. I’ll try another branch and see if it’s out too.
Gold up, imaginary money down.
I knew it would happen.
Seems the faith is the same as 12 years ago then.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
yep, and once again. . .
The Elites are bailing out their own banks, not yours
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
just about time for those ugly banking derivatives to show their face.
Wonder what exposurer US banks have with CS wrong side CDS bets. Level of US FED involvement with CS bailout will tell us the answer.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I suspect the sun will rise tomorrow and it will be business as usual in good ole "Merica. Enjoy the day. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
That's so strange, so does mine and I went to another branch atm and it too was down. Hopefully it's just out of service and not something else.
@SilverPlatinum commented “Here you go, Hostile forced takeover at 1/4 of the price by the government on Sunday (March 19th) for Credit Suisse bank!!!!”
Two observations:
“The price” is rather hard to determine in a situation like this. Shareholders should very possibly be happy with anything greater than zero.
“The government” in this case, of course, is the Swiss government, which is providing 100 billion in liquidity to make this happen. We likely benefit from this instance of government intervention.
It's not. Gold will move up on its own merits.
.> @GoldFinger1969 said:
then why does it move up when dollar/faith are down. LOL
Gold only has merits when compared to alternatives, such as the dollar.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
wait until we find out, due to US banking exposure to CS, that the FED also provided CS bailout funds. would not be the first time.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Gold has moved up plenty of times when the dollar has moved up. Over sustained time periods, a weaker dollar helps because other countries who buy large gold amounts find the cost lower in their currencies.
When has the dollar moved up when gold is moving up? Almost never. It's an inverse relationship. Find me a chart that says otherwise.
I knew it would happen.
2014-20. While there is a strong inverse relationship overall, there are shorter time periods when they track.
There are many times, mostly lasting only a few months, but for the entire year of 2005 both gold and the dollar rose.
One can also find charts of firewood with an inverse relationship to the dollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Just because the dollar index rises against other currencies, that doesn’t mean that the inverse relationship isn’t happening.
The dollar index has no bearing on gold’s relation to the dollar.
I knew it would happen.
If the dollar index (DXY is the symbol) is rising, it means the dollar is strengthening and this is a headwind (at least) for higher gold prices.
If a tree falls and you didn't hear it, did it still make a sound?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If the dollar index (DXY is the symbol) is rising, it means the dollar is strengthening
Against other currencies. Gold isn't in the equation.
If a tree falls and you didn't hear it, did it still make a sound?
Do you work hard at obfuscation, or does it just come naturally?
I knew it would happen.
Mostly natural.
You wanted proof and we gave it. Yet you still refuse to accept it, so i thought I would just try to show you how your responses look to others.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You talk about trees, lol.
You just say so and that’s supposed to be proof? Too funny!
I asked to see the chart, the data. You didn’t prove squat.
I knew it would happen.
If $ is created out of thin air does it make a sound?
Have you ever seen it created out of thin air?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes I did, but you are too lazy to see for yourself, and that's called willful ignorance.
You should be asking the charlatans you follow to "prove it" rather than allowing them to stroke your fears and emotions.
And why the hate on trees?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Follow the money, or follow the miner. They're both headed to the bank
Now enter crypto . How good is a digital currency held in an insolvent bank ?
They can make it illegal to own or trade...
willful ignorance?
In no way have you have you "proven" anything. The dollar can rise against other currencies for a year while gold is also rising against those same currencies, but that bears no relation to the fact that the relationship between gold and the dollar is an inverse relationship - always and over time. Google a chart - there are hundreds of them showing the same thing.
You should be asking the charlatans you follow to "prove it" rather than allowing them to stroke your fears and emotions.
The only charlatans I encounter online are the ones that snipe away at posts like this by talking about trees and fears and emotions - but offering exactly nothing germaine to the discussion at hand.
I knew it would happen.
Gold moved up with the US Dollar
from 01/2010 to 06/2010
from 05/2011 to 07/2011
from 08/2018 to 03/2020..............approx 1-1/2 years.
I'm sure there's more but I only looked at the 2009-2020 period.
I used the Net Dania 5 star gold and USDX weekly and monthly charts. You can look them up for free.
https://netdania.com/comodities/gold
The U.S. Dollar Index contains six component currencies: the Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss franc. So when talking about the US Dollar chart....we are in fact talking about these "other" 6 currencies.
The Euro is by far the largest component and plays a key liquidity role via the Euro/JPY currency pair. This tends to tell when money is flowing into "safe" or "riskier" assets. So it probably plays the largest role in the gold price. To some extent the pound, krona, and Franc do as well. The Canadian dollar (and the Australian dollar) tend to move when commodities are moving since they are heavy into mining, forestry, etc. Strong CAD and AUD currency moves tend to help push gold higher. When stocks are getting all the money via a rising Eur/JPY ratio gold flounders. If you look at the major moves in gold from 1999-2011 and then again during 2016 and 2018 to 2020 it was done via falling Eur/JPY ratio. I think the Eur/Jpy pair by itself (and also the other pairs of CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, etc) give a better overall picture vs the US Dollar Index.