How bad were sales of the 2022 US Mint Commemorative coin program?

BStrauss3

Short answer really, really, really bad

Data from https://www.coinnews.net/2023/01/26/us-mint-sales-more-of-the-same/ - the sales should be near final, but there are still returns trickling in...

edit: corrected tables

Glen2022

Pretty poor.

Zoins

Are these going to be new super rarities?

nwcoast

Pretty bad from the looks of those numbers.

AlbumAccumulator

Even though I collect uncirculated halves, I think the modem commemorative program needs to be scraped.

Jzyskowski1

@Zoins said:
Are these going to be new super rarities?

I hope they do better than the 2017 enhanced uncirculated sets. Low mintage and I bought a hand full. Loser with a capital L appeared on my forehead almost immediately 😁👶

BStrauss3

@Zoins said:
Are these going to be new super rarities?

Does it matter the quantities if nobody collects them?

It seems like it's been this way for modern commems for a while. The lowest mintage gets a small pop in value until the next lower one comes along.

This page makes it clear: http://www.numismedia.com/fmv/pricesms/mod5gld/prices61.shtml

The only $5 Gold with value over melt are the MS70s and the Jackie Robinson, at 5,174

Sales of the 2021 National Law Enforcement Memorial and Museum Commemorative $5 Coin are similar... 1,473 proof, 1,753 unc, and 4,391 of the 3-coin proof set or 7,617 total.

https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/category/modern-gold-commemorative-1984-date/1647

ricko

The value as rarities will likely come long after all of us have departed this life.... perhaps even a bit longer. Cheers, RickO

BStrauss3

@AlbumAccumulator said:
Even though I collect uncirculated halves, I think the modem commemorative program needs to be scraped.

Or creatively re-thought...

I've wondered about making a $2.50 silver commem using the 2.5oz silver medal size, but sales were only in the 10K range (the 1oz for USCG and USAF did better, 15k each). I like the larger canvas size and what you could do with it. I worry that instead of one big picture, you'll end up with 3 vignettes of the honoree - say the 3 Boys' Town designs on one "coin".

Vasanti

It needs better subject matter, better artwork and no more than one regular strike and one proof strike per year.

291fifth

These became programs for "flippers" but most of the "flippers" left the building long ago when the potential for quick profits disappeared.

The promoters of such commemorative programs always expect that the general public will buy these issues but the general public does not care.

Glen2022

I don't think they should make any new commemoratives until 2026. They don't have any scheduled for 2023 at least as of this point. If they give it a couple more years, perhaps the demand will increase, and coupled with the 250th anniversary of the US, that might stimulate interest.

Just my thoughts.

erscolo

Thank you for the update. I bought one of each of the options of both commemoratives in the half dollar and silver dollar options. Gold is out of my price range. I buy them for my collection and am glad to have them. A one year break will be a nice thing too, and 2024 is already set programs wise.

BillJones

@AlbumAccumulator said:
Even though I collect uncirculated halves, I think the modem commemorative program needs to be scraped.

It needs to be continued when there is something worth commemorating. Maybe the 250th U.S. anniversary in 2026 would be worthwhile. The government could have done better than just the Bicentennial coins in 1976.

BStrauss3

@Glen2022 said:
I don't think they should make any new commemoratives until 2026. They don't have any scheduled for 2023 at least as of this point. If they give it a couple more years, perhaps the demand will increase, and coupled with the 250th anniversary of the US, that might stimulate interest.

2024:

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/biden-signs-bill-for-2024-tubman-commemorative-coins

Harriet Tubman Bicentennial Commemorative Coin Act, Public Law 117-163, calls for the production and release in Proof and Uncirculated versions combined of 50,000 gold $5 coins, 400,000 silver dollars and 750,000 copper-nickel clad half dollars.

The retail purchase price of each gold coin will include a $35 surcharge, each silver dollar purchase includes a $10 surcharge, and each copper-nickel clad half dollar carries a $5 surcharge.

Net surcharges, after the U.S. Mint recoups all of its production and related costs, are to be evenly distributed between the National Underground Railroad Freedom Center in Cincinnati, Ohio, and The Harriet-Tubman Home Inc. in Auburn, New York, “for the purpose of accomplishing and advancing their missions.”

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/commemorative-coins-in-2024-to-honor-national-memorial

The Greatest Generation Commemorative Coin Act originated as H.R. 1057 when introduced Feb. 15, 2021, by Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio.

The law authorizes the Treasury secretary to direct the U.S. Mint to strike, in Proof and Uncirculated versions combined, up to 50,000 gold $5 coins, 400,000 silver dollars and 750,000 copper-nickel clad half dollars.

The purchase price of each gold coin will include a $35 surcharge, each silver dollar a $10 surcharge, and each copper-nickel clad half dollar, $5.

Net surcharges, after the U.S. Mint has recovered all of its production and associated costs will be paid to the Friends of the National World War II Memorial to support the National Park Service in maintaining and repairing the National World War II Memorial, and for educational and commemorative programs.

BStrauss3

2025 (PROPOSED)

https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/bills-seek-coins-honoring-u-s-marine-corps-anniversary

seeking a three-coin commemorative coin program to mark the Nov. 10, 2025, 250th anniversary of the United States Marine Corps.

Standard compositions and limits (see above)

291fifth

My prediction: Both of the 2024 commem programs will be monumental flops.

The Tubman coins will have little appeal to the coin collector market and even less to the general public.
The "Greatest Generation" will also have little collector appeal and the "Greatest Generation" itself will have nearly all passed from the scene by then.

So far as the 2025 U.S. Marine Corps program goes, it will probably do a bit better than the 2024 issues but not by much.

BillJones

@291fifth said:
These became programs for "flippers" but most of the "flippers" left the building long ago when the potential for quick profits disappeared.

The promoters of such commemorative programs always expect that the general public will buy these issues but the general public does not care.

There has not been a "flip" since Jackie Robinson, that one wasn't a "flipper" until the mint sales were over. That included a six month extension of those sales, which the mint should not have done. When you say sales are over, they should be over.

Allentram

Question - does anyone here think that US commemoratives are losing significant sales to foreign commemoratives? I sometimes browse APMEX and Modern Coin Mart where there are a lot of really nice designs at seemingly more reasonable prices, though some of them are truly gimmicky and overpriced. I can see where collectors would be disappointed or frustrated at US Mint offerings and would welcome such an alternative.

cagcrisp

Here are the updated sales for w/e 01/29/2023 for both programs...

2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART GOLD PROOF 2,783
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART GOLD UNC 1,688
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER PROOF 48,418
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER UNC 14,309
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART CLAD PROOF 22,895
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART CLAD UNC 12,454
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART 3-COIN SET 4,894
2022 NATIONAL PURPLE HEART SILVER COLORIZED 24,850

2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL GOLD PROOF 1,533
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL GOLD UNC 1,507
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER PROOF 22,685
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER UNC 8,440
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL CLAD PROOF 19,005
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL CLAD UNC 9,773
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL 3-COIN SET 3,822
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER DOLLAR AND MEDAL SET 10,668
2022 NEGRO LEAGUES BASEBALL SILVER DOLLAR W/PRIVY MARK 19,673

ColonelKlinck

I'm a "sucker" for the 1$ BU Commemorative and have been buying 1 of each issue from the mint since 1986. I take them out of their packaging and put them in my Dansco and now have a hefty book of silver I view from time to time. Maybe one day they will be worth what I paid for them, if the kids don't sell them first!

olympicsos

@AlbumAccumulator said:
Even though I collect uncirculated halves, I think the modem commemorative program needs to be scraped.

I don't think scrapping the modern commemorative program is necessary. Just scrapping the silver dollar and the gold coins maybe. I'd keep the clad half dollar, maybe instead of 1 design per program allow 3 half dollar designs per program at 2 programs per year (same as now), sell the proof clad half dollars as singles and have uncirculated clad half dollars be sold in bags and rolls to collectors or maybe issue them in general circulation, at least you could surprise people going to a bank and they'd have some use other than tying up coin dealers inventory and tying up collector budgets.

Jzyskowski1

The Negro league proof sold more than the privy? Ah…,🥴

BStrauss3

I think the product limit was 20k and with a few returns you are just under that so it basically sold out.

The limit on the silver dollar was 400k across all SKUs. No where close.

Generally, I haven't bothered trying to figure out the gimmicks (privy, colorized, etc.) it would make the spreadsheet more complex and harder to understand.

BStrauss3

It's also worse than you might think for the recipients:

31 U.S. Code § 5134 (f)Conditions on Payment of Surcharges to Recipient Organizations.—
(1)Payment of surcharges.—
(A)In general.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no amount derived from the proceeds of any surcharge imposed on the sale of any numismatic item shall be paid from the fund 1 to any designated recipient organization unless—
(i)all numismatic operation and program costs allocable to the program under which such numismatic item is produced and sold have been recovered; and
(ii)the designated recipient organization submits an audited financial statement that demonstrates, to the satisfaction of the Secretary, that, with respect to all projects or purposes for which the proceeds of such surcharge may be used, the organization has raised funds from private sources for such projects and purposes in an amount that is equal to or greater than the total amount of the proceeds of such surcharge derived from the sale of such numismatic item.

Thus to receive $9.5 million dollars in surcharge revenue you needed to raise $9.5 million in matching funds. You can't leave that to the last minute... yet, oddly donors often want to know what they are "getting" for their donation.

You've gone and raised $9.5 million promising $19 million in bang. And now you need to walk it back to $10.705 million dollars of bang.