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What implications does this article have for world coins?
bidask
Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭✭
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/cac-grading-service-planned-for-start-in-2023
Not much imo.
Even if CAC began to grade world coins I would most likely continue with PCGS.
That said I have the utmost respect for John Albanese.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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I wonder if any of the 125 strategic partners know anything about grading world coins!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
John told me it's US for now. However, if they can recruit true top experts, they will definitely move in that direction (World Coins). Without top-flight experts , they would never consider.
8 Reales Madness Collection
I have been advocating for many years they ( CAC) apply their wonderful grading skills to world coins but .....noooooo.
Would it matter now even if they start? I dont think so ......
They are kinda late to the world coin collecting/grading party imo.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
World coin grading fee is very big. You can just look at how long will take PCGS turn around time for world coin you will know it is lots of volumes. However, I am not sure how much value CAC label will add to the PCGS world coin.
World coins are too fragmented for the CAC model of A-B-C in-grade distinction to have much relevance. Maybe for a low proportion, an example being some British.
It's the last thing I want. I am not interested in a more inflated price level.
I see it as having nothing to do with collecting either. It's more marketing and financialization.
Most of the world volumes at NGC and PCGS are NCLT, by a lopsided proportion. This is evident in the TPG population data.
The turnaround time isn't due to the huge volume of non-NCLT for either service. It has to be the number of graders they have on staff.
It's great for people who want to point to the label and say "My coin's better than yours."
Yes, for what are overwhelmingly actually common coins, regardless that anyone thinks it's "rare".
For what I primarily buy now, I don't have the luxury of choosing between an "A", "B", or "C" coin even if I could grade to that standard which I can't. None of the coins I buy now have anything close to that type of availability, not even one. Few did in the past either.
Some of the coins in my collection are premium for the grade, but that's also an indictment on the consistency of TPG grading, more for NGC on my primary collecting interest.
I've said it many times before and I will say it again. I don't believe the Sheldon scale should be used for this coinage (pillars) and I don't believe it should be used for many other world coin designs either.
Since I don't, I also don't believe CAC's standards for US coins should be applied to world coins.
I don't believe that US TPG's should apply a US-centric grading system almost universally (all but ancients for NGC) to non-US coins. (Yes, I know why they do it.) I also find the application of "market acceptability" using US centric standards inconsistently applied.
I think they may have a place at the right price but possibly as wcc suggests not exactly in the USA format. The wait period at both the major TPGs has gotten atrocious but think it might take a while for another TPG to catch on.
Well, just Love coins, period.
it might free up PCGS and NGC and shorten turnaround times
Too much variety, minting techniques, and age to be practical.
I've been transitioning to non US coins for some years now.
Have culled my US holdings down to only coins I will ...never... sell.
The new grading service is just another complication in a hobby that needs NO complication.
Lance Tchor has a good eye for world coins ...not sure if WINGS is still operating.
https://www.numismaticnews.net/world-coins/wings-sets-the-bar-for-world-coins
Still I'm happy with using WINGS........ IF one really wants a second a opinion.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
The postage fee alone is enough to make grading most coins uneconomic. So they are right about that, especially when splitting the already ludicrously granular grades still further with a sticker. But if there isn’t a genuine need for that with US coins, there really isn’t for coins from anywhere else.
That’s the only way I see it impacting the dark side.
My current "Box of 20"
It's all about the graders. If CAC can hire a few of the right people, they could gain substantial market share very quickly. But hiring the right people will be very difficult, and I'd be surprised if anything happens in the next few years.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The new CAC isn't doing second opinions and stickers. They're a traditional grading company, with their own slabs, a registry, and everything else.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
In my opinion, they just gave up their niche> @MrEureka said:
And if those graders are already grading at the top 2, they're likely bound by a non-compete clause for a few years after leaving their current employer.
8 Reales Madness Collection
Try assembling a grading set of most> @TwoKopeiki said:
Except California prohibits non competes as a matter of law
Latin American Collection
Didn't know that. Kudos to California.
8 Reales Madness Collection
Albanese overreacted when he started stickering “colonials” (prior to 1792) coinage. I hope he stays out of the world and ancient coin market.
Overreacted to what? How?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
How about you ?!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
After giving it a little more thought, staffing a world coin grading department might not be so hard. Not that there are lots of people who can expertly attribute, authenticate and grade virtually all world coins - there are probably less than 10 in the world - but you don't need one person to do it all. Instead, it can be done as a collaboration between experts at world coin attribution and authentication, who can be hired, and expert US graders, who are already on staff.
Not that the world coin experts wouldn't be asked to grade everything. They would. (In fact, I'd have them grade some US coins as well, to help track their progress as graders.) But US graders would have the final say on grading the world coins, at least for a while. And eventually, hopefully, some of the world coin experts will develop into sharp enough graders that they can grade some or all coins on their own, with no supervision from the US graders.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'm imagining lots of leather, ball gags, cat o nine tails, etc in that situation
don't go in the basement, it's a trick!
Not sure if I can even think of 5...
If they opened a world department, they would need specialists in several different areas and would absolutely need to set limits on the material they would accept, especially at the beginning
Justin Meunier
Boardwalk Numismatics
They could start by taking baby steps by grading/certifying world coins that circulated in early America as illustrated in the PCGS registry of the same name. Naturally limiting or expanding that list as they see fit. I think U.S. graders are familiar, at least somewhat, with that coinage and it could make for an easier transition over time.
Charles III Album
Charles III Portrait Set
Charles IV Album
Charles IV Portrait Set
Does anyone have a know or guess how many graders are at PCGS and NGC respectively.
I estimate maybe 25 to 50 each?? You would need that many or more to grade 10,000 to 11,000 coins a day over a 20 work day month.
How long will their eyes last reflecting 100 watts of light back into their eyes 8 hours a day? Ugh!
They didn't all start out as world class graders as we were once told/ sold on.
Most of those folks were trained by the TPG's.
For the Latin coinage, there aren't enough quality coins to apply a distinction A-B-C within a grade. Maybe for others but don't know the availability.
This approach works within US coinage because most are common or very common. Even among scarcer US coinage, there is still usually a sufficient supply because the survival rates are a lot higher.
I've looked at PCGS Coin Facts and the TPG data extensively. Not every series but the TPG counts, estimated survivors (which I admit aren't probably usually accurate), and condition census of known best specimens are going to be (much) higher) than a high proportion and in some instances, most dates. Not just on the coinage in your post, but before some cut-off like pre-1900 or not far from it.
As one example, Heritage's on-line marketplace had multiples in different MS grades (up to four I recall) of some Draped Bust dime or half dime. Multiple dates with duplicates. This is up to MS-65 or MS-66.
Due to the difference in the price level, I presume the actual supply is somewhat higher for this Latin coinage than is apparent now, but still lower or much lower than comparable period US, most of the time.
Actually, the original graders at the TPG's were among the best in the business. But as time passed, yes, I suspect you're right. Truth is I probably don't even know half of the people grading our coins these days, which to me is a little bit scary.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Dismantling the so-called third party review/stickers is likely not the best long term strategy. Instead, CAC should limit the coins they accept as it is currently overused. So many low value coins that simply do not have price spreads between grades that warrant the need are needlessly submitted. There will always be high grade coins with what I call "the look" that will benefit from a CAC review. Setting up a TPG service is okay... but the US market seems mature and somewhat set in the ways it functions. I am not saying I agree with how it functions... what is recognized, not recognized or whether a new TPG Co can improve collecting and what are the critical aspects associated with grading and identify the best way to capture and define the state of preservation for coins. I think Hell has a better chance of freezing over before the latter comes to fruition.
I doubt that there are plans to enter the World Coin market as a TPG unless it is initially done on a very limited basis. Perhaps a review of PCGS population reports from various countries will help define the need, demand and as well as surviving population issues in terms of coins that are submission worthy. What we might learn from all of this is that rarity combined with condition rarity is grossly under appreciated.
Getting the right people/graders involved is key- but it likely could be manageable if one first sets the goals and objectives as to which countries/coins that are intended to be accepted for grading.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
That and the hope of financial gain seem to me to be the two human impulses CAC's success derives from.
What is NCLT?
Non-circulating legal tender, bullion and commemoratives.
Thanks
Surely this is why the whole exercise is pointless. If someone who looks at coins all day, day in, day out, can still be the 'wrong person', the differences are not discernable to collectors and completely irrelevant. You want pay more for a coin because Person X said it was better, even though you can't tell yourself? It's like the hype around diamonds - falsely inflating prices for no-one's benefit but Heritage et al.
For what I collect I do okay buying raw and submitting. Are mistakes made? Yes... and I can live with the consequences of my mistakes or lapse in judgement. Do I think TPG gets it right 100% of the time? That answer is no and it boils down to points of reference/experience that shape the grading outcome. And that turns full circle back to having the right graders involved. This is not about hype... it is about quality for the grade and finding the right coin that meets your expectations as well as even shaping those expectations.
The reasons I share my submission results here is to let collectors know what is possible and to help define a point of reference that documents what exists. And this extends to how often coins may surface and in what state of preservation. This process does not falsely inflate prices. Instead, it helps separate crap and processed coins from quality. Quality should dictate price... often the hype of the grade gets center stage instead of the coin speaking for itself. I suspect this is the root of your complaint.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Yes, the grade taking centre stage is a major issue. But the problem is around the definition of 'quality' and 'better'.
The scale is designed for very high volume US coins, and accounts for certain types of wear (and, in theory, nothing else). It's so precise, you can't even tell the difference without a magnifying glass and an expert. Given the wide range of non-US coin designs and huge variety of lives a coin might live once it enters circulation, this clearly doesn't make sense. Similar wear/damage will affect the appeal of each differently. Saying VF-35 is necessarily better than, and so worth more than, VF-30 can't always be true, so the whole system falls apart.
If the solution is to gather experts who know each series intimately and adjust the grades to suit, it's no longer a grade. It's a subjective opinion. It's also rather ridiculous. If there's only one person in the world who can see the 'true value', then you're buying the Emperor's new clothes.
You could say, well, good, I can buy coins I like more cheaply, because a TPG decided they aren't worth anything. You can even make money by playing the system (because it's too complex and even the experts don't get it 'right'). But what's the point of a grade? It was originally to allow you to buy coins unseen. Now we have high-resolution photos, we don't need them. That doesn't mean we don't need TPGs. They identify fakes, tooling, hidden damage and cleaning - although in the case of the latter, this has probably been demonised far more than it would've been if the TPGs weren't involved.
Does it falsely inflate prices? It seems Heritage and Stacks attract people who've been frightened into buying only slabbed coins. They seem happy to pay more for visibly worse coins just because they're slabbed (which may happen more with non-US coins because there are fewer to choose from). This is Heritage's business model.