Numismatic News: U.S. Economy Officially in Recession

OAKSTAR

https://www.numismaticnews.net/coin-market/u-s-economy-officially-in-recession?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=227878207&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--MiHOvJb02UwDOBmD0wu6aSpOVdzUfLtJu17rKmXoe2E1-bbWvkYocJ1tYqK9DjRagFyfpkv4EZenXwUWaioyvfNpeKg&utm_content=227878207&utm_source=hs_email

DelawareDoons

The whole two quarters of negative economic growth is the classic definition of a recession, but today, most economists just consider it to be one indicator of a recession. Given strong continued job numbers and employment, most economists don't think the US is presently in a recession... yet, at least.

CoffeeTime

Surprise surprise surprise

ricko

Recession is a reality. The issue will be, how deep, and how long. Cheers, RickO

pcgscacgold

Gold coins, with CAC stickers, are not in a recession so far.

Cougar1978

I agree - we are in a recession and it’s no surprise either. Working people feel the pinch. I expect prices come down on many coin issues. Will there be a market crash? Dunno. Already I am getting easier wins off AS for retail inventory acquisitions for upcoming show. eBay been really slow for me for months but at shows my Mexico slabbed coin inventory and WPM do well for me. There is one guy at show has CAC gold coins / 4 slabbed DE. Seen them in his case last couple shows. I may ask him a price but prolly not a buyer unless at my price (pct of CPG). Local show coming up - looking forward setting up plus the coin show food. Lots buying cash but picky.

People definitely have less money for coins. Many coming in the door at a show. doing good have $100 to spend.

However my WPM material, cheap slabs, and raw collector coins under $100 doing strong at shows.

A Gentleman’s Club just 9 miles down the interstate from me was packed when I went there (my weekly sojourn) to enjoy my VIP earlier in the week. The free buffet plus $3 beer was a treat plus entertainment activities. These places seem recession proof lol.

MasonG

Lots of words are being redefined lately. Good times for dictionary publishers, no doubt.

Tibor

I don't care what numbers you are manipulating, and how you spin them, we've been in a recession for at least 6 months. When prices are going up, but your income is not, in my book your going backwards, that's a recession. My definition. I don't care what the economists say.

winesteven

Most economists DO say we’re in a recession. Only when a recession came now, those that don’t WANT to recognize or admit it, say that negative economic growth for over six consecutive months (two consecutive quarters) no longer means that we’re in a recession (NEGATIVE economic growth). It might be a mild recession due to other economic factors, but it’s still a recession. Changing definitions/moving goal posts does not change economic facts!

Steve

MasonG

@winesteven said:
Changing definitions/moving goal posts does not change economic facts!

You have to admit, having people moving goalposts does improve employment numbers.

ms71

Just another affirmation of the old adage: If all the economists in the world were laid end-to-end, they wouldn't reach a conclusion.

OAKSTAR

@ricko said:
Recession is a reality. The issue will be, how deep, and how long. Cheers, RickO

So is it intentional or just the reality of incompetence? For those of us reading this, it's inflation. There is (IMO) little or no impact from inflation for those making the rules and policies. You know, the ones with armed guards and walls around their homes.

It's the old golden rule, whoever has the gold makes the rules.

ricko

@OAKSTAR.... A sad reality. And yes, incompetence led to our current issues. Cheers, RickO

Oldhoopster

Starting to edge towards that political boundary. Be careful people.

My guess is that this thread is closed on Monday due to lack of numismatic content.

nwcoast

I have little doubt we’re slipping into recession and yes, the definition is all over the place.
For those pointing fingers at the causes and elements of inflation, inflation is not just a US issue. Inflation is hurting economies and people all around the world.
One might consider that multiple factors have contributed to inflation, including the war in Ukraine and the pandemic which can’t be discounted and in the big scheme of things, blame shouldn’t be placed squarely upon our domestic policies. There’s plenty of blame to go around including the multiple rounds of QE’s. Sure, there’s some incompetence in there, but also excesses of greed and corruption on both sides of the political isle on the way up during the economic expansion.

It’s been an interesting trajectory in that the precious metals haven’t offered the perceived “safe haven” status that they sometimes have during previous periods of economic turmoil and inflation. Perhaps, if things get much worse, they will in the future. There have been scant few investments spared from the recent downdrafts. Cryptocurrency sure hasn’t risen to the occasion!

In an effort to keep this somewhat on topic, I stand by my position that high quality collector coins might hold a modest spot within a diversified investment portfolio. And, along the way, unlike many other investments, we can hold them in our hands, have some fun and appreciate their beauty - whichever direction their value might head.

OAKSTAR

@Oldhoopster said:
Starting to edge towards that political boundary. Be careful people.

My guess is that this thread is closed on Monday due to lack of numismatic content.

Relax @Oldhoopster. Thanks for pushing it in that direction for us! It's all numismatic content. The article came from Numismatic News.

blitzdude

No recession up here in The Commonweath. Business is boomin as much as it always has. RGDS!

Boosibri

National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee Makes the actual call in if we are in a recession

Walkerguy21D

Loose monetary policies across the globe for ~15 years fueled all this. Now the punch bowls are beyond dry, the party is over, and the bills are overdue. And nobody wants to pay bills when they have a hangover!
On the bright side we still have plenty of most everything here, albeit at higher prices. Many in the world would love to have our problems.

winesteven

@nwcoast said:
I have little doubt we’re slipping into recession and yes, the definition is all over the place.
For those pointing fingers at the causes and elements of inflation, inflation is not just a US issue. Inflation is hurting economies and people all around the world.
One might consider that multiple factors have contributed to inflation, including the war in Ukraine and the pandemic which can’t be discounted and in the big scheme of things, blame shouldn’t be placed squarely upon our domestic policies. There’s plenty of blame to go around including the multiple rounds of QE’s. Sure, there’s some incompetence in there, but also excesses of greed and corruption on both sides of the political isle on the way up during the economic expansion.

It’s been an interesting trajectory in that the precious metals haven’t offered the perceived “safe haven” status that they sometimes have during previous periods of economic turmoil and inflation. Perhaps, if things get much worse, they will in the future. There have been scant few investments spared from the recent downdrafts. Cryptocurrency sure hasn’t risen to the occasion!

In an effort to keep this somewhat on topic, I stand by my position that high quality collector coins might hold a modest spot within a diversified investment portfolio. And, along the way, unlike many other investments, we can hold them in our hands, have some fun and appreciate their beauty - whichever direction their value might head.

Gee, I was hoping to avoid this, but since it was mentioned above, I have to address false implications, and I'll keep this short and generic. Yes, there are several causes of OUR inflation in the U.S., some having had more of an impact than others. But the fact that many other countries also chose to overspend money is not an excuse. Perfect example - look at Japan. At the end of July 2022, their rate of inflation was only 2.6%!

Steve

Che_Grapes

If we have a recession then wouldn’t interest rates be going down?

jmlanzaf

@Che_Grapes said:
If we have a recession then wouldn’t interest rates be going down?

Stagflation.

The situation is more complex. You've got a huge budget deficit, which is stimulative, while the Fed is trying to fight inflation with interest rates. It's something of an experiment with the Fed and the Federal government working against each other.

nwcoast

@winesteven said:

Gee, I was hoping to avoid this, but since it was mentioned above, I have to address false implications, and I'll keep this short and generic. Yes, there are several causes of OUR inflation in the U.S., some having had more of an impact than others. But the fact that many other countries also chose to overspend money is not an excuse. Perfect example - look at Japan. At the end of July 2022, their rate of inflation was only 2.6%!

Steve

Your point is well taken Steve. Thank you.
Japan perhaps isn’t yet suffering from the full brunt effects of this inflation flair up, but their numbers are climbing and I might venture to guess that things aren’t as rosy as it may appear on the surface.
Their economy has never fully recovered from their real estate bubble collapse of many years ago.
There are MANY complicated factors at play in both individual and world economies- as I’m sure you recognize. We’re not even discussing currencies- which are HUGE.
I too would prefer to avoid debating economic theory/policy and politics.

I only made my above post in an effort to bridge the huge political chasm and blame game that is an unhealthy and divisive element whenever these things are discussed.

I love your coins by the way! Great eye! :-)

Edited to add:
I’m not making any excuses for countries overspending, simply pointing out that there are other factors playing into the inflation equation.
This has been a very long time in the making.
I sure don’t have all the answers but strongly suspect that the worse is yet to come. I hope and wish it were otherwise!

jt88

Inflation yes, recession not sure. Worst is yet to come. Stock market might go down another 20% to 30% 9/30's close.

Goldminers

No worries, Inflation and recessions are both transitory

Cougar1978

RCI: The bids will be dropping big time?

WCC

@Tibor said:
I don't care what numbers you are manipulating, and how you spin them, we've been in a recession for at least 6 months. When prices are going up, but your income is not, in my book your going backwards, that's a recession. My definition. I don't care what the economists say.

Pretty much sums it up. Negative inflation adjusted income growth. Declining net worth, the latter appears better due to housing market, which is weakening now but if someone sells, they still need to live somewhere.

privatecoin

Everything is in recession but coins. I'm still outbid on everything lately.

air4mdc

How can this information be accurately reported by a numismatic magazine when degreed economic professionals and the greatest financial wizards of all time can't define if we are in a recession? Just who will be the credible source to accurately define or report it?

WCC

@air4mdc said:
How can this information be accurately reported by a numismatic magazine when degreed economic professionals and the greatest financial wizards of all time can't define if we are in a recession? Just who will be the credible source to accurately define or report it?

It's often partly or substantially psychological. As individuals, presumably everyone knows if their economic position is improving or worsening though from public accounts, many have a hard time quantifying it.

Most people use the "rule of thumb" of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. However, GDP alone isn't an accurate measure of aggregate economic performance or financial condition. It's certainly a very poor indicator for measuring whether quality of life is improving (or not) for an entire society which is how I believe most people are actually interpreting economic conditions, current and prospective.

winesteven

@air4mdc said:
How can this information be accurately reported by a numismatic magazine when degreed economic professionals and the greatest financial wizards of all time can't define if we are in a recession? Just who will be the credible source to accurately define or report it?

They CAN define it, as up until this recession that we ARE in, there’s been almost full agreement. Recordings and printed statements from before now from those that all of a sudden have changed their tune can easily be found. So just as many people today feel intimidated to share their honest views, others “know” to move the goal posts by attempting to change the definition!

crazyhounddog

But, but, they say we’re in a (Transition)🤣🤣🤣. NO! We have most definitely been in a recession for 6 months now and it’s gonna get worse after the midterms. That’s a guarantee. Especially gasoline and heating oil. The worst is yet to come and it’s just around the corner.

Catbert

From WSJ:

“Since February 2020, publicly held U.S. Treasury debt has exploded, growing from about $17 trillion to $24 trillion. Almost half of the increase has wound up at the Fed, whose Treasury holdings have ballooned from $2.5 trillion in February 2020 to $5.8 trillion.”

“Under current Fed policy, the federal government’s annual gross interest expense could reach $1 trillion, causing federal borrowing to continue to grow rapidly. As rates rise and federal borrowing increases, a vicious circle will produce ever more interest expense and ever more borrowing.

This dire outlook has been long coming. The current debate about inflation and whether the Fed’s monetary moves have been too late or too aggressive misses the point. The U.S. has been on an unsustainable fiscal and financial path for a long time. We are beginning to see the inevitable result.”

The feared death spiral is coming.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-interest-rates-will-crush-the-federal-budget-inflation-debt-spending-costs-recession-economy-11656535631

WCC

@Catbert said:

“Since February 2020, publicly held U.S. Treasury debt has exploded, growing from about $17 trillion to $24 trillion. Almost half of the increase has wound up at the Fed, whose Treasury holdings have ballooned from $2.5 trillion in February 2020 to $5.8 trillion.”

Three measures of public debt. at least. First there is the headline public debt which is about $31T. Second, there is the public debt per your post which is about $24T. Third, there is the public debt which must actually be financed which is $24T less FRB holdings and which is something like $19T now.

So, even after this debt binge, the amount that must be financed is still "only" around 80% of GDP. Of course, since much of GDP isn't real production, the burden on the economy is actually (a lot) worse.

@Catbert said:

The feared death spiral is coming.

It certainly approaches. Having said this, there is no "red line" of debt to GDP which triggers a crisis. See Japan and Spain (in 2011) for an example.

fathom

We will see zombie company pain and that will add to liquidity issues that are already starting, -BoE.

This affects everything, coin prices etc. For some coins this is peak valuation time. Tread carefully.

Catbert

Don't forget as the recession is furthered, tax revenue to pay the debt will lessen

jessewvu

The only charts I look at frequently are my solar power production and power storage levels. When I'm really board, I count my ammo cans and try to remember what's in each one.

Regarding the economy, depending on what you want to believe, it seems you can find "news" and "facts" in abundance.

CoffeeTime

To add some numismatic content- a coin show I was at this weekend had venders selling below their marked prices. The benefit was adding a few nice pieces to my collection.

DollarAfterDollar

I've always viewed recessions through the lens of job losses. Just because every company up and down the block is asking far more than their product is worth makes this a manipulated/manufactured crisis. I'm not buying it.

LanceNewmanOCC

@OAKSTAR
.
you can be honest. you started this thread knowing that it would be locked/deleted and as a newer member, you have seen that as a right-of-passage, you need to have a certain amount of locked/deleted threads/posts in order to be taken seriously around here!

JBK

@Catbert said:
From WSJ:

“Since February 2020, publicly held U.S. Treasury debt has exploded, growing from about $17 trillion to $24 trillion. Almost half of the increase has wound up at the Fed, whose Treasury holdings have ballooned from $2.5 trillion in February 2020 to $5.8 trillion.”

“Under current Fed policy, the federal government’s annual gross interest expense could reach $1 trillion, causing federal borrowing to continue to grow rapidly. As rates rise and federal borrowing increases, a vicious circle will produce ever more interest expense and ever more borrowing.

This dire outlook has been long coming. The current debate about inflation and whether the Fed’s monetary moves have been too late or too aggressive misses the point. The U.S. has been on an unsustainable fiscal and financial path for a long time. We are beginning to see the inevitable result.”

The feared death spiral is coming.

>

Hey, look at the bright side. I've always wanted a $1000 bill.

Soon I could have a wallet full of them!

MasonG

@JBK said:
Hey, look at the bright side. I've always wanted a $1000 bill.

$1000? You're not thinking big. Here you go...

OAKSTAR

@LanceNewmanOCC said:
@OAKSTAR
.
you can be honest. you started this thread knowing that it would be locked/deleted and as a newer member, you have seen that as a right-of-passage, you need to have a certain amount of locked/deleted threads/posts in order to be taken seriously around here!

No, I wouldn't want to intentionally start a thread knowing or hoping it would be deleted or locked. What would the point of that be? It's not locked yet anyway.

Unless, like you say; I need some point for a right-of-passage and taken seriously. 😁 Short of that, would I have to take a bullet for someone here to be accepted? 😂 🤣

With the exception of one individual (not you) I think this thread has been productive, informative and in-line with the forum protocol and standards. He was suggesting and "probably" hope this thread would go off the rails and be deleted. Sorry we disappoint him!

breakdown

Not about coins. I realize people like to vent. If that is what you need to do, OFR is perfect for that.

roadrunner

@DelawareDoons said:
The whole two quarters of negative economic growth is the classic definition of a recession, but today, most economists just consider it to be one indicator of a recession. Given strong continued job numbers and employment, most economists don't think the US is presently in a recession... yet, at least.

Many or most Economists are in Govt and academia. They are "coaxed" to support what their bosses want from them. And I'd say the same thing for Corporate Economists. Not too many companies want to call alarm bells to their businesses and cause customers to start curtailing their buying. Economists play to the optics currently in demand. Economic, CPI and job numbers have been "juiced" multiple times since the early 80's. That data is skewed. Pay attention to what your eyes tell you.

jmlanzaf

@roadrunner said:

@DelawareDoons said:
The whole two quarters of negative economic growth is the classic definition of a recession, but today, most economists just consider it to be one indicator of a recession. Given strong continued job numbers and employment, most economists don't think the US is presently in a recession... yet, at least.

Many or most Economists are in Govt and academia. They are "coaxed" to support what their bosses want from them. And I'd say the same thing for Corporate Economists. Not too many companies want to call alarm bells to their businesses and cause customers to start curtailing their buying. Economists play to the optics currently in demand. Economic, CPI and job numbers have been "juiced" multiple times since the early 80's. That data is skewed. Pay attention to what your eyes tell you.

My eyes tell me that were not in a classic recession. That doesn't mean economic conditions are perfect. There is still job growth. GDP contraction is negligible and subject to revision. Further, the headline number is influenced by Covid related supply chain issues as well as Covid-related volatility in the numbers.

It also really doesn't matter unless your job is corporate strategy. Your pocketbook is your pocketbook. You could get rich in the Great Depression and you could be broke in the greatest economic expansion in history.

ironmanl63

@jmlanzaf said:

@roadrunner said:

@DelawareDoons said:
The whole two quarters of negative economic growth is the classic definition of a recession, but today, most economists just consider it to be one indicator of a recession. Given strong continued job numbers and employment, most economists don't think the US is presently in a recession... yet, at least.

Many or most Economists are in Govt and academia. They are "coaxed" to support what their bosses want from them. And I'd say the same thing for Corporate Economists. Not too many companies want to call alarm bells to their businesses and cause customers to start curtailing their buying. Economists play to the optics currently in demand. Economic, CPI and job numbers have been "juiced" multiple times since the early 80's. That data is skewed. Pay attention to what your eyes tell you.

My eyes tell me that were not in a classic recession. That doesn't mean economic conditions are perfect. There is still job growth. GDP contraction is negligible and subject to revision. Further, the headline number is influenced by Covid related supply chain issues as well as Covid-related volatility in the numbers.

It also really doesn't matter unless your job is corporate strategy. Your pocketbook is your pocketbook. You could get rich in the Great Depression and you could be broke in the greatest economic expansion in history.

Does Covid have anything to do with the job growth.

jmlanzaf

@ironmanl63 said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@roadrunner said:

@DelawareDoons said:
The whole two quarters of negative economic growth is the classic definition of a recession, but today, most economists just consider it to be one indicator of a recession. Given strong continued job numbers and employment, most economists don't think the US is presently in a recession... yet, at least.

Many or most Economists are in Govt and academia. They are "coaxed" to support what their bosses want from them. And I'd say the same thing for Corporate Economists. Not too many companies want to call alarm bells to their businesses and cause customers to start curtailing their buying. Economists play to the optics currently in demand. Economic, CPI and job numbers have been "juiced" multiple times since the early 80's. That data is skewed. Pay attention to what your eyes tell you.

My eyes tell me that were not in a classic recession. That doesn't mean economic conditions are perfect. There is still job growth. GDP contraction is negligible and subject to revision. Further, the headline number is influenced by Covid related supply chain issues as well as Covid-related volatility in the numbers.

It also really doesn't matter unless your job is corporate strategy. Your pocketbook is your pocketbook. You could get rich in the Great Depression and you could be broke in the greatest economic expansion in history.

Does Covid have anything to do with the job growth.

Yes. As does the aging population.

LanceNewmanOCC

@OAKSTAR said:
😁 Short of that, would I have to take a bullet for someone here to be accepted? 😂 🤣

.
it certainly isn't required but it certainly isn't discouraged.

the rest is a good post.