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Let's talk about determining "worth" of our coins

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  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,704 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @daltex said:

    @MFeld said:

    @daltex said:

    @MFeld said:

    @FlyingAl said:
    The MS63 Kennedy is a great example I think.

    The definition of worth - "the value of something measured by its qualities or by the esteem in which it is held." (Webster).

    Is it worth $500? Absolutely. Why? Someone paid that much for it. Could it be worth more? Yes. Less? Not at the time it was sold.

    Here's my thought process. The worth of something should be the highest value or amount of money (esteem in which is is held) a person wishes to pay for a good or service. That number can vary with person, but that variance doesn't matter - because it is the highest value. Someone paid $500 for the coin. Therefore, it is worth $500. However, someone could come along and pay $600 for it, making the worth higher. If someone offers $400, the worth doesn't drop - someone still wishes to pay $500.

    The caveat is this - the worth of an item is subject to time, just like we all are. Hopefully I didn't ramble off into incoherency here.

    The variance in price that different buyers are willing to pay does matter, when determining “worth”.
    Why would the $500 coin later be worth $600 if someone subsequently offered that for it, but at the same time, still be worth $500 if someone was subsequently willing to pay only $400 for it?

    Once a coin has sold (whether privately or publicly via auction) its’ worth isn’t necessarily tied to its previous transaction price. Additionally, while there might be one or more buyers for a coin at a top-dollar price, its’ owner might not know who the high buyers are or how to reach them. For example, even if there are two buyers for your $500 coin at $1000, but you don’t know that or them, is it “worth” $1000?

    You're missing the point. If I owned the coin and I showed it to my next door neighbor who knows nothing about coins says "I'd only give you 50c for it" and my neighbor on the other side recognized it as silver and said "It's worth $9 to me", that means nothing about what the coin is worth. Instead it is worth the most, or very close to the most, that a knowledgeable buyer would be willing to pay. If I were to put a coin on the BST and one person offers $400 and another offers $600 the coin is obviously not worth $400 and not even $500, and may even be worth more than $600.

    Please give me at least an iota of credit for having a clue about how the market functions. I didn’t miss the point. I was taking issue with the idea that a previous sale price of a coin necessarily establishes a minimum value for it for the future.

    Ah, well in that case I completely misunderstood your post. I agree with you strongly and think that dealers who refuse to sell a coin for what it's "worth" because they paid more than that for it are beyond foolish. This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.

    In many cases, at least dealers who refuse to sell coins for what they're worth, aren't dealing in commodities, as are gas stations selling gas. So the dealers might have a passable excuse.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,922 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.

    Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.

    I agree with what you said and feel sorry for those people. It is a hobby to be enjoyed. Do they feel the same way about the steak dinner they go out for?

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,704 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Glen2022 said:

    Ah, well in that case I completely misunderstood your post. I agree with you strongly and think that dealers who refuse to sell a coin for what it's "worth" because they paid more than that for it are beyond foolish. This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.

    I beg to differ with you. Often a gas station near a freeway, particularly and interstate, will sell gas for $.50 per gallon more than one a mile from the interstate.

    They might do so, but that's not the result of being unwilling to sell for less than their cost, is it?

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • Glen2022Glen2022 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭✭

    No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Glen2022 said:
    No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).

    Which still has little to do with the cost of the commodity. If gas drops to $2 a gallon, the gas station can't continue to hold out for $4.59 because they paid $3.99 They have to take the loss. They might be able to get $2.50 instead of the $2 in town, but they still have to charge market prices or they will not make many sales.

  • BuffaloIronTailBuffaloIronTail Posts: 7,482 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.

    In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.

    Off topic.

    Pete

    "I tell them there's no problems.....only solutions" - John Lennon
  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,704 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Glen2022 said:
    No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).

    No confusion - you disagreed with @daltex , who wrote "This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.

    In doing so, you introduced the consideration of a higher selling price, due to location and convenience. I then merely pointed out that the higher price wasn't based on cost, which was the topic of discussion at that time.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 8:28AM

    @BuffaloIronTail said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.

    In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.

    Off topic.

    Pete

    LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.

    Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pcgscacgold said:

    @MasonG said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.

    Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.

    I agree with what you said and feel sorry for those people. It is a hobby to be enjoyed. Do they feel the same way about the steak dinner they go out for?

    I buy coins I like, with money I have allotted to spending on my collection. Of course, the price is considered but mostly in relation to other potential purchases that might be foregone. I have no expectation of realizing any gain in value for the coins I buy. If I was worried about what I'd be able to sell a coin for before even buying it, I sure wouldn't be enjoying the hobby. But people collect for all sorts of reasons and if that's the way they want to pursue their goals, who am I to say they shouldn't?

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 2,320 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Does nearness to the entrance or a prime location at an ANA Show affect prices??

  • BuffaloIronTailBuffaloIronTail Posts: 7,482 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 10:00AM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @BuffaloIronTail said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.

    In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.

    Off topic.

    Pete

    LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.

    Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.

    Just returning the favor, that's all. ;)

    Pete

    "I tell them there's no problems.....only solutions" - John Lennon
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BuffaloIronTail said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @BuffaloIronTail said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.

    In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.

    Off topic.

    Pete

    LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.

    Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.

    Just returning the favor, that's all.

    Pete

    I know

  • Joe_360Joe_360 Posts: 1,712 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    Eye appeal adds alpha.

    But don't forget the beta...

    Doesn't eye appeal = delta, as the variation between what one eye may see verses some others

  • AlanSkiAlanSki Posts: 1,926 ✭✭✭✭✭

    To me “worth” is determined by how much I’m willing to pay for something. To a buyer their “worth” is determined by how much they are willing to spend for something I have.

    A good example is a shoreline album I paid $7 for. It was worth it at that price. Someone else bought a single coin it in for $200. They obviously felt it was worth that amount for the collection they are building.

    It’s all semantics though.

  • alefzeroalefzero Posts: 987 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The difficult ones are problem coins, the ones with details grades. I specialize in early US dollars. About a third of mine are such. PCGS doesn't publish pops on them. Technically they are not gradeable and pops would be problematic because some are cracked and resubmitted to try to catch a grade. So they could end up being even more misleading than regular pops. Nobody does, AFAIK, price guides for them. Those too would be difficult because some problems are less market-friendly than others. The best we have are auction archives. Nonetheless, there are major rarities where a significant fraction of the extant population are effectively hidden. That makes it hard to price them naturally and even harder to market them, rendering them as kryptonite to dealers and collectors alike. I will say though that there are some cases where a problem coin can be better presenting than a graded one. But many will walk away from them.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

    Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.

    But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.

  • 124Spider124Spider Posts: 959 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 10:38AM

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

    1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!
    2. Re-read this interesting thread, in which a number of people have wished that people didn't talk about ROI.
  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.

    No. Make = Recover any of the cost

    @lermish said:
    But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.

    I'm sure it would be. I only buy coins with discretionary income and just as I would not expect to recover the money spent on other hobbies, I do not need to do so with my collection. Anything I can get from a sale would be considered a bonus.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @124Spider said:
    1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!

    I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?

  • 124Spider124Spider Posts: 959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!

    I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?

    Wow, Snarky R Us!

    Two can play that game--You're looking down your nose at anyone having an "investment" concern as we spend big bucks on coins, and yet it turns out you have a larger investment concern than many of us, expecting to get back your cost basis. Very funny!

  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Ok. Please chill you guys for the sake of the thread. 🤨

    Seated Half Society member #38
    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • ms71ms71 Posts: 1,543 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 11:31AM

    The gas station analogy isn't relevant. A gallon of gas at any gas station is exactly the same commodity in the eye of the buyer. In the coin market, there are no two coins that are "exactly the same". Vive la différence.

    Successful BST transactions: EagleEye, Christos, Proofmorgan,
    Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins

    Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.

    My mind reader refuses to charge me....
  • ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Coins are an investment.

    The stock market is a hobby.

    Today, the investment is paying off and the hobby is losing quite a bit of money >:)

  • skier07skier07 Posts: 4,023 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.

    Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel that way at all especially on more expensive coins.

  • lkeneficlkenefic Posts: 8,160 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    >
    I'm definitely not a wealthy man by any stretch of the imagination... especially when compared to some of our more "well healed" Forum members. I approach coin collection as a hobby though, not an investment, and I collect within my means. I have a Pension fund I contribute to as well as an SRA as far as "investments" go. Those plus Social Security and I'll likely be able to keep a roof over my head and eat well... but I have no delusions that I'm going to be a millionaire jetting off to Paris for lunch... or buying 5-figure coins on a whim. Occasionally, I'll get a windfall I wasn't expecting and I'll be able to purchase something that would have taken me years to save for, but coins are entertainment for me... i have other actual "investments" that I'm expecting to live off of for the rest of my life.

    Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;

    Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 13,704 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @124Spider said:

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!

    I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?

    Wow, Snarky R Us!

    Two can play that game--You're looking down your nose at anyone having an "investment" concern as we spend big bucks on coins, and yet it turns out you have a larger investment concern than many of us, expecting to get back your cost basis. Very funny!

    I haven't reached either of those conclusions from reading @MasonG's posts.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:
    I haven't reached either of those conclusions from reading @MasonG's posts.

    Thanks, Mark. I'm pretty sure I didn't say either of those things, good to see you recognized that. :)

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @skier07 said:

    @MasonG said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.

    Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel that way at all especially on more expensive coins.

    Just for the record, I didn't say it was unreasonable, I said it's how some posters here feel.

  • WalkerloverWalkerlover Posts: 920 ✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

    Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.

    But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.

    If a person is a pure collector he can afford a very substantial loss as you definitely need to factor in the entertainment value. In reality coins will never lose 100% of their value as that is a theoretical thought.
    Even a collector/investor should be okay with a sizable loss due to the hours of enjoyment looking at and holding these treasures. It’s only the true investor that needs to be concerned so much with what their coins can be sold for and a big loss. If a person doesn’t spend more than they can afford for this great hobby it shouldn’t sting as much if there is a loss. My collection is worth approximately $1500, and I am not so happy but fine with it going down to half of that as I have more than $750 worth of pleasure and entertainment from these coins.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 34,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

    Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.

    But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.

    How do golfers recover their greens fees?

    Considering coins a sunk cost might change how much you spend, but that might be a good thing.

    And to answer your other question, partial recovery of costs does not constitute an "investment". Further, recovering 100% of your cost after 10 years is a "bad investment".

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    People spend more on a European vacation than I ever will on a coin and they won't recover a penny of that cost. Is that problematic?

  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,819 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 14, 2022 2:01AM

    If I eat lunch during my 12 hour work day [and that's a big IF], it's a peanut
    butter sandwich while I drive.
    Others at work think nothing of spending $30-$50 per day on lunch and a couple trips to Dunkin Donuts.
    I think I'm ahead of the game :D
    .
    $40/day x 5 days/week x 52 weeks/year = $10,400.00.....................that could buy some nice coins!
    Just my thought.

    Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb

    Bad transactions with : nobody to date

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,319 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 12:50PM

    To keep it simple: For MV I refer to CF, CPG, Coin Prices (NN).

    What a coin is “worth” can be a subjective thing. I prefer the word potential. A coin can have the potential to sell high in a auction if high end or very rare for example.

    Coins & Currency
  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @lermish said:

    @MasonG said:

    @124Spider said:
    I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."

    It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.

    Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.

    But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.

    How do golfers recover their greens fees?

    Considering coins a sunk cost might change how much you spend, but that might be a good thing.

    And to answer your other question, partial recovery of costs does not constitute an "investment". Further, recovering 100% of your cost after 10 years is a "bad investment".

    It's an interesting conundrum. For sure, this is a hobby and hobbies typically have some non-recoverable expense. And other than the memories of enjoying a round of golf (or vacation or meal or...), there is no monetary value remaining. A hobby should not be an investment.

    At the same time, this particular hobby is literally about collecting money. To separate the idea of collecting money from the monetary value of the collection is very difficult, especially given the history of the hobby and how intertwined it can be with buying/selling/valuations.

    I'm not sure what other question I posed other than asking for clarification on Mason's statement? I'm a professional portfolio manager and I am very well aware of "bad investments".

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:
    People spend more on a European vacation than I ever will on a coin and they won't recover a penny of that cost. Is that problematic?

    Not at all. But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.

    Whether collectible coins should be considered a hard asset is very much up for debate. And perhaps expectations are misplaced, or should be adjusted...or maybe not. Everyone needs to make that determination for themselves.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    I'm not sure what other question I posed other than asking for clarification on Mason's statement? I'm a professional portfolio manager and I am very well aware of "bad investments".

    To be clear, my collection is not an investment. When I evaluate my investments, I do so as though the collection does not exist. The chances of its value going to zero are pretty much zero, too and any amount of money I manage to recover from it is just gravy.

    Obviously, this is not how everybody views their collection and there is nothing wrong with that.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.

    Coin collecting is an experience for me, not an exercise in acquiring assets.

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @lermish said:
    But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.

    Coin collecting is an experience for me, not an exercise in acquiring assets.

    That is fantastic and most (myself included) would probably do better to emulate that viewpoint.

    However, I think most would view their collecting as a blend between the pleasure of the hobby (the experience) and the expectation that they or their heirs could obtain some value greater than melt/face for that collection at some point should they wish.

    I didn't mention the act of acquisition itself but that can be fun/satisfying as well.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    However, I think most would view their collecting as a blend between the pleasure of the hobby (the experience) and the expectation that they or their heirs could obtain some value greater than melt/face for that collection at some point should they wish.

    I think most do. Otherwise, there would be far fewer posts here made by people worrying about spending too much for a coin- being buried in it, I believe is how it's often expressed. And not in a satisfying way.

    Again, to be clear, I'm not saying that considering your collection to be an investment is wrong, I'm saying it's wrong for me.

  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,819 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 13, 2022 2:59PM

    @1630Boston said:

    If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO
    PS half of the above 12 coins sold for more than $3240...........and half sold for less than $3240

    boston

    Additionally,
    If we accept this definition for an 'outlier' [there are different definitions] then there are no 'outliers' in the 12 price results.
    .
    An outlier is defined as any observation in a dataset that is 1.5 IQRs greater than the third quartile or 1.5 IQRs less than the first quartile, where IQR stands for “interquartile range” and is the difference between the first and third quartile.
    .
    Outliers: none

    Minimum: 2402

    First quartile: 2760

    Median: 3360

    Third quartile: 4080

    Maximum: 5040

    Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb

    Bad transactions with : nobody to date

  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,541 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I've been looking to acquire a coin which me is a very expensive type coin for my collection for over five years. I don't see many of them. It's a matter of where it is on the continuum of the grades I am looking for, combined with recent auction results, plus what someone I trust tells me is a good value. I try to keep pride of ownership out of the equation; that's a good way to get buried in a coin.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1630Boston said:

    @1630Boston said:

    If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO
    PS half of the above 12 coins sold for more than $3240...........and half sold for less than $3240

    boston

    Additionally,
    If we accept this definition for an 'outlier' [there are different definitions] the there are no 'outliers' in the 12 price results.
    .
    An outlier is defined as any observation in a dataset that is 1.5 IQRs greater than the third quartile or 1.5 IQRs less than the first quartile, where IQR stands for “interquartile range” and is the difference between the first and third quartile.
    .
    Outliers: none

    Minimum: 2402

    First quartile: 2760

    Median: 3360

    Third quartile: 4080

    Maximum: 5040

    It's not a valid sample size but (for fun!B) using all of the prices @MFeld provided and using a widely accepted standard deviation gives us a mean of $3440 and a standard deviation of ~$221. Using the standard bellcurve distribution of 2σ to represent 95% of a population, the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873 so, by this measure, there are several outliers.

    Of course, it's for naught as we need a larger sample size and some sort of random selection.

  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,819 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1630Boston said:
    The mean price for this group is $3392

    If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO

    boston

    @lermish , I agree on sample pops, but you said
    .
    the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873
    .
    Take your $3007 + $3873 and divide by 2 = $3440
    .
    My estimate 6 hours ago was $3400
    .
    we are close.
    .
    math is FUN.
    Figuring out coin 'value'/'worth' is difficult. :)

    Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb

    Bad transactions with : nobody to date

  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,819 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    Of course, it's for naught as we need a larger sample size and some sort of random selection.

    .
    .
    that would be great....but............nothing random about short term numismatic auction results.........Just My Humble Opinion.

    I like your thought and math process @lermish :)

    Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb

    Bad transactions with : nobody to date

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,112 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1630Boston said:

    I like your thought and math process @lermish :)

    Thanks, I'm having a good time too:)

    We can draw an interesting (anecdotal/not statistically significant) conclusion from the data set using standard deviation though! With this limited data, the coin that went for $5040 should occur less than 1 in a million times. Given that mintage was 1 million and MS65 coins a small fraction of that, that is of course not accurate - that's why we need a larger data set However, while not valuing the coins, it's an interesting way to quantify how the market values the ultra PQ coins (and the inverse) for any given population.

    I'm sure this is not an original thought but fun process to work through.

  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,819 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    @1630Boston said:

    I like your thought and math process @lermish :)

    Thanks, I'm having a good time too:)

    We can draw an interesting (anecdotal/not statistically significant) conclusion from the data set using standard deviation though! With this limited data, the coin that went for $5040 should occur less than 1 in a million times. Given that mintage was 1 million and MS65 coins a small fraction of that, that is of course not accurate - that's why we need a larger data set However, while not valuing the coins, it's an interesting way to quantify how the market values the ultra PQ coins (and the inverse) for any given population.

    I'm sure this is not an original thought but fun process to work through.

    As I said your thought process is appreciated - Very Good and accepted :)

    Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb

    Bad transactions with : nobody to date

  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 7,262 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seated Half Society member #38
    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"

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