@FlyingAl said:
The MS63 Kennedy is a great example I think.
The definition of worth - "the value of something measured by its qualities or by the esteem in which it is held." (Webster).
Is it worth $500? Absolutely. Why? Someone paid that much for it. Could it be worth more? Yes. Less? Not at the time it was sold.
Here's my thought process. The worth of something should be the highest value or amount of money (esteem in which is is held) a person wishes to pay for a good or service. That number can vary with person, but that variance doesn't matter - because it is the highest value. Someone paid $500 for the coin. Therefore, it is worth $500. However, someone could come along and pay $600 for it, making the worth higher. If someone offers $400, the worth doesn't drop - someone still wishes to pay $500.
The caveat is this - the worth of an item is subject to time, just like we all are. Hopefully I didn't ramble off into incoherency here.
The variance in price that different buyers are willing to pay does matter, when determining “worth”.
Why would the $500 coin later be worth $600 if someone subsequently offered that for it, but at the same time, still be worth $500 if someone was subsequently willing to pay only $400 for it?
Once a coin has sold (whether privately or publicly via auction) its’ worth isn’t necessarily tied to its previous transaction price. Additionally, while there might be one or more buyers for a coin at a top-dollar price, its’ owner might not know who the high buyers are or how to reach them. For example, even if there are two buyers for your $500 coin at $1000, but you don’t know that or them, is it “worth” $1000?
You're missing the point. If I owned the coin and I showed it to my next door neighbor who knows nothing about coins says "I'd only give you 50c for it" and my neighbor on the other side recognized it as silver and said "It's worth $9 to me", that means nothing about what the coin is worth. Instead it is worth the most, or very close to the most, that a knowledgeable buyer would be willing to pay. If I were to put a coin on the BST and one person offers $400 and another offers $600 the coin is obviously not worth $400 and not even $500, and may even be worth more than $600.
Please give me at least an iota of credit for having a clue about how the market functions. I didn’t miss the point. I was taking issue with the idea that a previous sale price of a coin necessarily establishes a minimum value for it for the future.
Ah, well in that case I completely misunderstood your post. I agree with you strongly and think that dealers who refuse to sell a coin for what it's "worth" because they paid more than that for it are beyond foolish. This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.
In many cases, at least dealers who refuse to sell coins for what they're worth, aren't dealing in commodities, as are gas stations selling gas. So the dealers might have a passable excuse.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@pcgscacgold said:
I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.
Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.
I agree with what you said and feel sorry for those people. It is a hobby to be enjoyed. Do they feel the same way about the steak dinner they go out for?
Ah, well in that case I completely misunderstood your post. I agree with you strongly and think that dealers who refuse to sell a coin for what it's "worth" because they paid more than that for it are beyond foolish. This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.
I beg to differ with you. Often a gas station near a freeway, particularly and interstate, will sell gas for $.50 per gallon more than one a mile from the interstate.
They might do so, but that's not the result of being unwilling to sell for less than their cost, is it?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).
@Glen2022 said:
No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).
Which still has little to do with the cost of the commodity. If gas drops to $2 a gallon, the gas station can't continue to hold out for $4.59 because they paid $3.99 They have to take the loss. They might be able to get $2.50 instead of the $2 in town, but they still have to charge market prices or they will not make many sales.
@jmlanzaf said:
I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.
In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.
Off topic.
Pete
"I tell them there's no problems.....only solutions" - John Lennon
@Glen2022 said:
No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).
No confusion - you disagreed with @daltex , who wrote "This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.
In doing so, you introduced the consideration of a higher selling price, due to location and convenience. I then merely pointed out that the higher price wasn't based on cost, which was the topic of discussion at that time.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@jmlanzaf said:
I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.
In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.
Off topic.
Pete
LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.
Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.
@pcgscacgold said:
I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.
Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.
I agree with what you said and feel sorry for those people. It is a hobby to be enjoyed. Do they feel the same way about the steak dinner they go out for?
I buy coins I like, with money I have allotted to spending on my collection. Of course, the price is considered but mostly in relation to other potential purchases that might be foregone. I have no expectation of realizing any gain in value for the coins I buy. If I was worried about what I'd be able to sell a coin for before even buying it, I sure wouldn't be enjoying the hobby. But people collect for all sorts of reasons and if that's the way they want to pursue their goals, who am I to say they shouldn't?
@jmlanzaf said:
I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.
In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.
Off topic.
Pete
LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.
Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.
Just returning the favor, that's all.
Pete
"I tell them there's no problems.....only solutions" - John Lennon
@jmlanzaf said:
I sold a run of Moon Knight comics yesterday. Opening bid was $199. An hour before it ended, some generous soul emailed me to offer $170. Hammer price was $243. Clearly, different people have it different values.
In fact, you could argue that auctions work on that principle. Every bidder puts a different value on the item. There was, after all, an underbidder in the GC auction.
Off topic.
Pete
LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.
Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.
To me “worth” is determined by how much I’m willing to pay for something. To a buyer their “worth” is determined by how much they are willing to spend for something I have.
A good example is a shoreline album I paid $7 for. It was worth it at that price. Someone else bought a single coin it in for $200. They obviously felt it was worth that amount for the collection they are building.
The difficult ones are problem coins, the ones with details grades. I specialize in early US dollars. About a third of mine are such. PCGS doesn't publish pops on them. Technically they are not gradeable and pops would be problematic because some are cracked and resubmitted to try to catch a grade. So they could end up being even more misleading than regular pops. Nobody does, AFAIK, price guides for them. Those too would be difficult because some problems are less market-friendly than others. The best we have are auction archives. Nonetheless, there are major rarities where a significant fraction of the extant population are effectively hidden. That makes it hard to price them naturally and even harder to market them, rendering them as kryptonite to dealers and collectors alike. I will say though that there are some cases where a problem coin can be better presenting than a graded one. But many will walk away from them.
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
I harbor no fantasy that my coin collections are in the process of making me wealthy. But I'm not wealthy enough to throw away the amount of money I've spent over the years on my coins; if I didn't feel that I can recoup a very substantial percentage of what I've spent, if I ever need the money, I would never have bought my first expensive coin. I certainly factor in "pleasure" to what I get out of this hobby, but that's not enough.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!
Re-read this interesting thread, in which a number of people have wished that people didn't talk about ROI.
@lermish said:
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
No. Make = Recover any of the cost
@lermish said:
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
I'm sure it would be. I only buy coins with discretionary income and just as I would not expect to recover the money spent on other hobbies, I do not need to do so with my collection. Anything I can get from a sale would be considered a bonus.
@124Spider said:
1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!
I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?
@124Spider said:
1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!
I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?
Wow, Snarky R Us!
Two can play that game--You're looking down your nose at anyone having an "investment" concern as we spend big bucks on coins, and yet it turns out you have a larger investment concern than many of us, expecting to get back your cost basis. Very funny!
The gas station analogy isn't relevant. A gallon of gas at any gas station is exactly the same commodity in the eye of the buyer. In the coin market, there are no two coins that are "exactly the same". Vive la différence.
@pcgscacgold said:
I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.
Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel that way at all especially on more expensive coins.
Coins are worth what you are willing to pay. After a number of years, I finally found a seated dime in the condition that I was looking for. When I asked the dealer the price, he took out a greysheet. I knew immediately that the coin was mine.
A friend of mine (now deceased) once said "I may have overpaid, but at least I have it!".
1804 dimes are very rare and almost impossible to find. I found one at the FUN show in 2000 and purchased it immediately, I have not seen another 1804 dime since. There are some coins that make sense to buy upon sight, because you may not find another for a long time, if ever. A lot of major collections do not have an 1804 dime.
I am in this as a hobby, not for turning coins over for profit. If I make a profit, so be it, If I lose money, so be it. At least I have had the pride of ownership for awhile.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
>
I'm definitely not a wealthy man by any stretch of the imagination... especially when compared to some of our more "well healed" Forum members. I approach coin collection as a hobby though, not an investment, and I collect within my means. I have a Pension fund I contribute to as well as an SRA as far as "investments" go. Those plus Social Security and I'll likely be able to keep a roof over my head and eat well... but I have no delusions that I'm going to be a millionaire jetting off to Paris for lunch... or buying 5-figure coins on a whim. Occasionally, I'll get a windfall I wasn't expecting and I'll be able to purchase something that would have taken me years to save for, but coins are entertainment for me... i have other actual "investments" that I'm expecting to live off of for the rest of my life.
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
@124Spider said:
1. Good for you; it must be nice to be that wealthy (assuming that you're saying that if you lost all your money, you'd be fine with that)!
I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?
Wow, Snarky R Us!
Two can play that game--You're looking down your nose at anyone having an "investment" concern as we spend big bucks on coins, and yet it turns out you have a larger investment concern than many of us, expecting to get back your cost basis. Very funny!
I haven't reached either of those conclusions from reading @MasonG's posts.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@pcgscacgold said:
I’m surprised there are not more hobbyist or collectors here that see value in pride of ownership or value in finding that coin that has only come to auction once in the last 25 years, etc.
Based on comments here, the issue that seems most important for many posters who are contemplating a purchase is how much money they'll be able to sell a coin for after they've bought it.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel that way at all especially on more expensive coins.
Just for the record, I didn't say it was unreasonable, I said it's how some posters here feel.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
If a person is a pure collector he can afford a very substantial loss as you definitely need to factor in the entertainment value. In reality coins will never lose 100% of their value as that is a theoretical thought.
Even a collector/investor should be okay with a sizable loss due to the hours of enjoyment looking at and holding these treasures. It’s only the true investor that needs to be concerned so much with what their coins can be sold for and a big loss. If a person doesn’t spend more than they can afford for this great hobby it shouldn’t sting as much if there is a loss. My collection is worth approximately $1500, and I am not so happy but fine with it going down to half of that as I have more than $750 worth of pleasure and entertainment from these coins.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
How do golfers recover their greens fees?
Considering coins a sunk cost might change how much you spend, but that might be a good thing.
And to answer your other question, partial recovery of costs does not constitute an "investment". Further, recovering 100% of your cost after 10 years is a "bad investment".
If I eat lunch during my 12 hour work day [and that's a big IF], it's a peanut
butter sandwich while I drive.
Others at work think nothing of spending $30-$50 per day on lunch and a couple trips to Dunkin Donuts.
I think I'm ahead of the game
.
$40/day x 5 days/week x 52 weeks/year = $10,400.00.....................that could buy some nice coins!
Just my thought.
To keep it simple: For MV I refer to CF, CPG, Coin Prices (NN).
What a coin is “worth” can be a subjective thing. I prefer the word potential. A coin can have the potential to sell high in a auction if high end or very rare for example.
@124Spider said:
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
How do golfers recover their greens fees?
Considering coins a sunk cost might change how much you spend, but that might be a good thing.
And to answer your other question, partial recovery of costs does not constitute an "investment". Further, recovering 100% of your cost after 10 years is a "bad investment".
It's an interesting conundrum. For sure, this is a hobby and hobbies typically have some non-recoverable expense. And other than the memories of enjoying a round of golf (or vacation or meal or...), there is no monetary value remaining. A hobby should not be an investment.
At the same time, this particular hobby is literally about collecting money. To separate the idea of collecting money from the monetary value of the collection is very difficult, especially given the history of the hobby and how intertwined it can be with buying/selling/valuations.
I'm not sure what other question I posed other than asking for clarification on Mason's statement? I'm a professional portfolio manager and I am very well aware of "bad investments".
@MasonG said:
People spend more on a European vacation than I ever will on a coin and they won't recover a penny of that cost. Is that problematic?
Not at all. But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.
Whether collectible coins should be considered a hard asset is very much up for debate. And perhaps expectations are misplaced, or should be adjusted...or maybe not. Everyone needs to make that determination for themselves.
@lermish said:
I'm not sure what other question I posed other than asking for clarification on Mason's statement? I'm a professional portfolio manager and I am very well aware of "bad investments".
To be clear, my collection is not an investment. When I evaluate my investments, I do so as though the collection does not exist. The chances of its value going to zero are pretty much zero, too and any amount of money I manage to recover from it is just gravy.
Obviously, this is not how everybody views their collection and there is nothing wrong with that.
@lermish said:
But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.
Coin collecting is an experience for me, not an exercise in acquiring assets.
That is fantastic and most (myself included) would probably do better to emulate that viewpoint.
However, I think most would view their collecting as a blend between the pleasure of the hobby (the experience) and the expectation that they or their heirs could obtain some value greater than melt/face for that collection at some point should they wish.
I didn't mention the act of acquisition itself but that can be fun/satisfying as well.
@lermish said:
However, I think most would view their collecting as a blend between the pleasure of the hobby (the experience) and the expectation that they or their heirs could obtain some value greater than melt/face for that collection at some point should they wish.
I think most do. Otherwise, there would be far fewer posts here made by people worrying about spending too much for a coin- being buried in it, I believe is how it's often expressed. And not in a satisfying way.
Again, to be clear, I'm not saying that considering your collection to be an investment is wrong, I'm saying it's wrong for me.
If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO
PS half of the above 12 coins sold for more than $3240...........and half sold for less than $3240
boston
Additionally,
If we accept this definition for an 'outlier' [there are different definitions] then there are no 'outliers' in the 12 price results.
.
An outlier is defined as any observation in a dataset that is 1.5 IQRs greater than the third quartile or 1.5 IQRs less than the first quartile, where IQR stands for “interquartile range” and is the difference between the first and third quartile.
.
Outliers: none
I've been looking to acquire a coin which me is a very expensive type coin for my collection for over five years. I don't see many of them. It's a matter of where it is on the continuum of the grades I am looking for, combined with recent auction results, plus what someone I trust tells me is a good value. I try to keep pride of ownership out of the equation; that's a good way to get buried in a coin.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO
PS half of the above 12 coins sold for more than $3240...........and half sold for less than $3240
boston
Additionally,
If we accept this definition for an 'outlier' [there are different definitions] the there are no 'outliers' in the 12 price results.
.
An outlier is defined as any observation in a dataset that is 1.5 IQRs greater than the third quartile or 1.5 IQRs less than the first quartile, where IQR stands for “interquartile range” and is the difference between the first and third quartile.
.
Outliers: none
Minimum: 2402
First quartile: 2760
Median: 3360
Third quartile: 4080
Maximum: 5040
It's not a valid sample size but (for fun!B) using all of the prices @MFeld provided and using a widely accepted standard deviation gives us a mean of $3440 and a standard deviation of ~$221. Using the standard bellcurve distribution of 2σ to represent 95% of a population, the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873 so, by this measure, there are several outliers.
Of course, it's for naught as we need a larger sample size and some sort of random selection.
@1630Boston said: The mean price for this group is $3392
If my math is correct $3400 seems to be an estimated value with no other info on the specific coins. JMO
boston
@lermish , I agree on sample pops, but you said
. the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873
.
Take your $3007 + $3873 and divide by 2 = $3440
.
My estimate 6 hours ago was $3400
.
we are close.
.
math is FUN.
Figuring out coin 'value'/'worth' is difficult.
We can draw an interesting (anecdotal/not statistically significant) conclusion from the data set using standard deviation though! With this limited data, the coin that went for $5040 should occur less than 1 in a million times. Given that mintage was 1 million and MS65 coins a small fraction of that, that is of course not accurate - that's why we need a larger data set However, while not valuing the coins, it's an interesting way to quantify how the market values the ultra PQ coins (and the inverse) for any given population.
I'm sure this is not an original thought but fun process to work through.
We can draw an interesting (anecdotal/not statistically significant) conclusion from the data set using standard deviation though! With this limited data, the coin that went for $5040 should occur less than 1 in a million times. Given that mintage was 1 million and MS65 coins a small fraction of that, that is of course not accurate - that's why we need a larger data set However, while not valuing the coins, it's an interesting way to quantify how the market values the ultra PQ coins (and the inverse) for any given population.
I'm sure this is not an original thought but fun process to work through.
As I said your thought process is appreciated - Very Good and accepted
Comments
In many cases, at least dealers who refuse to sell coins for what they're worth, aren't dealing in commodities, as are gas stations selling gas. So the dealers might have a passable excuse.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I agree with what you said and feel sorry for those people. It is a hobby to be enjoyed. Do they feel the same way about the steak dinner they go out for?
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
They might do so, but that's not the result of being unwilling to sell for less than their cost, is it?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No question, but I think you are confusing cost of doing business with worth of the item . I submit that a gallon of gas purchased at a station near an interstate is worth the same as one purchased a mile away, The difference is the convenience of purchase near the interstate and what one is willing to pay for that convenience (if driving on the interstate).
Which still has little to do with the cost of the commodity. If gas drops to $2 a gallon, the gas station can't continue to hold out for $4.59 because they paid $3.99 They have to take the loss. They might be able to get $2.50 instead of the $2 in town, but they still have to charge market prices or they will not make many sales.
Off topic.
Pete
No confusion - you disagreed with @daltex , who wrote "This is in al fields, not just coins, but we don't see a gas station attempting to sell for $4.59 because that is what it paid when all the other nearby stations are asking $3.99.
In doing so, you introduced the consideration of a higher selling price, due to location and convenience. I then merely pointed out that the higher price wasn't based on cost, which was the topic of discussion at that time.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
LOL. Not at all. The topic was auctions.
Notice I didn't ask for a moment of a silence for the 250,000 Iraqi civilians who were killed.
I buy coins I like, with money I have allotted to spending on my collection. Of course, the price is considered but mostly in relation to other potential purchases that might be foregone. I have no expectation of realizing any gain in value for the coins I buy. If I was worried about what I'd be able to sell a coin for before even buying it, I sure wouldn't be enjoying the hobby. But people collect for all sorts of reasons and if that's the way they want to pursue their goals, who am I to say they shouldn't?
Does nearness to the entrance or a prime location at an ANA Show affect prices??
Just returning the favor, that's all.
Pete
I know
Doesn't eye appeal = delta, as the variation between what one eye may see verses some others
To me “worth” is determined by how much I’m willing to pay for something. To a buyer their “worth” is determined by how much they are willing to spend for something I have.
A good example is a shoreline album I paid $7 for. It was worth it at that price. Someone else bought a single coin it in for $200. They obviously felt it was worth that amount for the collection they are building.
It’s all semantics though.
The difficult ones are problem coins, the ones with details grades. I specialize in early US dollars. About a third of mine are such. PCGS doesn't publish pops on them. Technically they are not gradeable and pops would be problematic because some are cracked and resubmitted to try to catch a grade. So they could end up being even more misleading than regular pops. Nobody does, AFAIK, price guides for them. Those too would be difficult because some problems are less market-friendly than others. The best we have are auction archives. Nonetheless, there are major rarities where a significant fraction of the extant population are effectively hidden. That makes it hard to price them naturally and even harder to market them, rendering them as kryptonite to dealers and collectors alike. I will say though that there are some cases where a problem coin can be better presenting than a graded one. But many will walk away from them.
I am intrigued by the wistful desire by some that coin collecting somehow be totally divorced from "investment."
I harbor no fantasy that my coin collections are in the process of making me wealthy. But I'm not wealthy enough to throw away the amount of money I've spent over the years on my coins; if I didn't feel that I can recoup a very substantial percentage of what I've spent, if I ever need the money, I would never have bought my first expensive coin. I certainly factor in "pleasure" to what I get out of this hobby, but that's not enough.
It's not a wistful desire, it's a reality. The pleasure of owning my coins is enough for me. They are not an investment and if I never make a penny from them, I can live with that.
Does make=profit? I think a large portion of us (collectors, not dealers) would be ok not profiting - or even losing - from the sale of coins.
But to have 100% of the money be a sunk cost and to only be able to liquidate a collection at face/melt value would be problematic for a lot people.
No. Make = Recover any of the cost
I'm sure it would be. I only buy coins with discretionary income and just as I would not expect to recover the money spent on other hobbies, I do not need to do so with my collection. Anything I can get from a sale would be considered a bonus.
I didn't say anything about losing all my money. I'm talking about the coins in my collection. You understand those are two distinct things, right?
Wow, Snarky R Us!
Two can play that game--You're looking down your nose at anyone having an "investment" concern as we spend big bucks on coins, and yet it turns out you have a larger investment concern than many of us, expecting to get back your cost basis. Very funny!
Ok. Please chill you guys for the sake of the thread. 🤨
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
The gas station analogy isn't relevant. A gallon of gas at any gas station is exactly the same commodity in the eye of the buyer. In the coin market, there are no two coins that are "exactly the same". Vive la différence.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Coins are an investment.
The stock market is a hobby.
Today, the investment is paying off and the hobby is losing quite a bit of money
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel that way at all especially on more expensive coins.
Coins are worth what you are willing to pay. After a number of years, I finally found a seated dime in the condition that I was looking for. When I asked the dealer the price, he took out a greysheet. I knew immediately that the coin was mine.
A friend of mine (now deceased) once said "I may have overpaid, but at least I have it!".
1804 dimes are very rare and almost impossible to find. I found one at the FUN show in 2000 and purchased it immediately, I have not seen another 1804 dime since. There are some coins that make sense to buy upon sight, because you may not find another for a long time, if ever. A lot of major collections do not have an 1804 dime.
I am in this as a hobby, not for turning coins over for profit. If I make a profit, so be it, If I lose money, so be it. At least I have had the pride of ownership for awhile.
>
I'm definitely not a wealthy man by any stretch of the imagination... especially when compared to some of our more "well healed" Forum members. I approach coin collection as a hobby though, not an investment, and I collect within my means. I have a Pension fund I contribute to as well as an SRA as far as "investments" go. Those plus Social Security and I'll likely be able to keep a roof over my head and eat well... but I have no delusions that I'm going to be a millionaire jetting off to Paris for lunch... or buying 5-figure coins on a whim. Occasionally, I'll get a windfall I wasn't expecting and I'll be able to purchase something that would have taken me years to save for, but coins are entertainment for me... i have other actual "investments" that I'm expecting to live off of for the rest of my life.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I haven't reached either of those conclusions from reading @MasonG's posts.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Thanks, Mark. I'm pretty sure I didn't say either of those things, good to see you recognized that.
Just for the record, I didn't say it was unreasonable, I said it's how some posters here feel.
If a person is a pure collector he can afford a very substantial loss as you definitely need to factor in the entertainment value. In reality coins will never lose 100% of their value as that is a theoretical thought.
Even a collector/investor should be okay with a sizable loss due to the hours of enjoyment looking at and holding these treasures. It’s only the true investor that needs to be concerned so much with what their coins can be sold for and a big loss. If a person doesn’t spend more than they can afford for this great hobby it shouldn’t sting as much if there is a loss. My collection is worth approximately $1500, and I am not so happy but fine with it going down to half of that as I have more than $750 worth of pleasure and entertainment from these coins.
How do golfers recover their greens fees?
Considering coins a sunk cost might change how much you spend, but that might be a good thing.
And to answer your other question, partial recovery of costs does not constitute an "investment". Further, recovering 100% of your cost after 10 years is a "bad investment".
People spend more on a European vacation than I ever will on a coin and they won't recover a penny of that cost. Is that problematic?
If I eat lunch during my 12 hour work day [and that's a big IF], it's a peanut
butter sandwich while I drive.
Others at work think nothing of spending $30-$50 per day on lunch and a couple trips to Dunkin Donuts.
I think I'm ahead of the game
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$40/day x 5 days/week x 52 weeks/year = $10,400.00.....................that could buy some nice coins!
Just my thought.
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
To keep it simple: For MV I refer to CF, CPG, Coin Prices (NN).
What a coin is “worth” can be a subjective thing. I prefer the word potential. A coin can have the potential to sell high in a auction if high end or very rare for example.
It's an interesting conundrum. For sure, this is a hobby and hobbies typically have some non-recoverable expense. And other than the memories of enjoying a round of golf (or vacation or meal or...), there is no monetary value remaining. A hobby should not be an investment.
At the same time, this particular hobby is literally about collecting money. To separate the idea of collecting money from the monetary value of the collection is very difficult, especially given the history of the hobby and how intertwined it can be with buying/selling/valuations.
I'm not sure what other question I posed other than asking for clarification on Mason's statement? I'm a professional portfolio manager and I am very well aware of "bad investments".
Not at all. But I think the expectations of spending money on an experience are different than spending money on a hard asset.
Whether collectible coins should be considered a hard asset is very much up for debate. And perhaps expectations are misplaced, or should be adjusted...or maybe not. Everyone needs to make that determination for themselves.
To be clear, my collection is not an investment. When I evaluate my investments, I do so as though the collection does not exist. The chances of its value going to zero are pretty much zero, too and any amount of money I manage to recover from it is just gravy.
Obviously, this is not how everybody views their collection and there is nothing wrong with that.
Coin collecting is an experience for me, not an exercise in acquiring assets.
That is fantastic and most (myself included) would probably do better to emulate that viewpoint.
However, I think most would view their collecting as a blend between the pleasure of the hobby (the experience) and the expectation that they or their heirs could obtain some value greater than melt/face for that collection at some point should they wish.
I didn't mention the act of acquisition itself but that can be fun/satisfying as well.
I think most do. Otherwise, there would be far fewer posts here made by people worrying about spending too much for a coin- being buried in it, I believe is how it's often expressed. And not in a satisfying way.
Again, to be clear, I'm not saying that considering your collection to be an investment is wrong, I'm saying it's wrong for me.
Additionally,
If we accept this definition for an 'outlier' [there are different definitions] then there are no 'outliers' in the 12 price results.
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An outlier is defined as any observation in a dataset that is 1.5 IQRs greater than the third quartile or 1.5 IQRs less than the first quartile, where IQR stands for “interquartile range” and is the difference between the first and third quartile.
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Outliers: none
Minimum: 2402
First quartile: 2760
Median: 3360
Third quartile: 4080
Maximum: 5040
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Bad transactions with : nobody to date
I've been looking to acquire a coin which me is a very expensive type coin for my collection for over five years. I don't see many of them. It's a matter of where it is on the continuum of the grades I am looking for, combined with recent auction results, plus what someone I trust tells me is a good value. I try to keep pride of ownership out of the equation; that's a good way to get buried in a coin.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
It's not a valid sample size but (for fun!B) using all of the prices @MFeld provided and using a widely accepted standard deviation gives us a mean of $3440 and a standard deviation of ~$221. Using the standard bellcurve distribution of 2σ to represent 95% of a population, the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873 so, by this measure, there are several outliers.
Of course, it's for naught as we need a larger sample size and some sort of random selection.
@lermish , I agree on sample pops, but you said
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the normal distribution of prices should be between $3007-$3873
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Take your $3007 + $3873 and divide by 2 = $3440
.
My estimate 6 hours ago was $3400
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we are close.
.
math is FUN.
Figuring out coin 'value'/'worth' is difficult.
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
.
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that would be great....but............nothing random about short term numismatic auction results.........Just My Humble Opinion.
I like your thought and math process @lermish
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Bad transactions with : nobody to date
Thanks, I'm having a good time too:)
We can draw an interesting (anecdotal/not statistically significant) conclusion from the data set using standard deviation though! With this limited data, the coin that went for $5040 should occur less than 1 in a million times. Given that mintage was 1 million and MS65 coins a small fraction of that, that is of course not accurate - that's why we need a larger data set However, while not valuing the coins, it's an interesting way to quantify how the market values the ultra PQ coins (and the inverse) for any given population.
I'm sure this is not an original thought but fun process to work through.
As I said your thought process is appreciated - Very Good and accepted
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
https://www.statology.org/when-to-use-mean-vs-median/
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"