2022-s ase

spyglassdesign

So I just got confirmed that I will be received 10 proofs of the 2022-s ase. I wasn't certain when I got the email before that it was indeed for the 2022-s or next year...

What I'm considering is if I should increase this number? I'm planning to send to grading which should get me a first strike/first release tag. From what I can tell about half get 70 at ngc. Anyone have any ideas what the pcgs stats are?

I have the option to go up to 25.

What to do...

djm

Cancel your order with the mint, forget about sending coins in. This option is $108.00+ per coin and no guarantee of getting a 70. You can buy them from Modern Coin Mart for $129.00 PR70DCAM First Strikes.

Goldminers

Are you looking for the Holy Grail? Everybody's already got one.

spyglassdesign

@djm said:
Cancel your order with the mint, forget about sending coins in. This option is $108.00+ per coin and no guarantee of getting a 70. You can buy them from Modern Coin Mart for $129.00 PR70DCAM First Strikes.

How are you coming up with $108?

spyglassdesign

@Goldminers said:
Are you looking for the Holy Grail? Everybody's already got one.

Even Harrison Ford couldn't hold onto the holy grail 😅

djm

The coin is $73.00 + PCGS Modern Value of $17.00 + First Strike Designation of $18.00. I didn't include Shipping in Both Directions or the $10.00 Submission fee.

spyglassdesign

@djm said:
The coin is $73.00 + PCGS Modern Value of $17.00 + First Strike Designation of $18.00. I didn't include Shipping in Both Directions or the $10.00 Submission fee.

Ah I didn't see the first strike fee. Ouch.

Goldminers

They are a little expensive, depending on service, but also factor your time, and your postage to send. First Strike is $18 alone and slower economy type grading might take more time and any potential buyers may have moved on by the time you get them back to sell.

Also, you will get some 69's, how many, no one can know. You might not even get all your money back on the 69's after all costs and delays. This is not really a good flip as there are just too many people trying. My recommendation is don't buy more and sell fast. If you do want to get them graded, you should look at them first before grading. If you see ANYTHING not perfect, don't send it in or risk disappointment.

PS. I bought mine graded so I would not have to waste my time and money as I only wanted one nice PCGS 70 for my set. Simple.

spyglassdesign

@Goldminers said:
They are a little expensive, depending on service, but also factor your time, and your postage to send. First Strike is $18 alone and slower economy type grading might take more time and any potential buyers may have moved on by the time you get them back to sell.

Also, you will get some 69's, how many, no one can know. You might not even get all your money back on the 69's after all costs and delays. This is not really a good flip as there are just too many people trying. My recommendation is don't buy more and sell fast. If you do want to get them graded, you should look at them first before grading. If you see ANYTHING not perfect, don't send it in or risk disappointment.

PS. I bought mine graded so I would not have to waste my time and money as I only wanted one nice PCGS 70 for my set. Simple.

The turn around time for the other tpg seems to be faster for this type of coin (modern)... But pricing is about the same. If I do it I'll probably keep one for my own collection. I like your idea of inspecting first... I know it's 30 days so that would give me time. Also nice is that the raw coins seem to be going to about $20-25 over purchase price so I can probably offload the non 70s and still make a few $ by not sending them in.

spyglassdesign

Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

djm

@spyglassdesign said:
Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

The mintage for this coin is much higher than 200K.

200K is the number for coins in the individual packaging, there is a second option for this coin which is bulk packaging of 40 coins per box which does not fall into 200K number.
Once the coins are graded there is no way to tell if your coin came from the batch of 200K or the bulk batch of coins.

spyglassdesign

@djm said:

@spyglassdesign said:
Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

The mintage for this coin is much higher than 200K.

200K is the number for coins in the individual packaging, there is a second option for this coin which is bulk packaging of 40 coins per box which does not fall into 200K number.
Once the coins are graded there is no way to tell if your coin came from the batch of 200K or the bulk batch of coins.

Are thosr proofs tho?

djm

Yes, they are the 2022-S Proof Silver Eagles, that's why it says mintage limit None.

MetroD

Building on what @djm has already posted ...

~ the 40-coin trays were reported as 59,640 back in JAN-2022. Reference
~ the LE Silver Proof Set were reported as 50,000 back in MAY-2020. Reference

Per the second reference, the forecasted grand total was 321,840, as of MAY-2022.

derryb

@spyglassdesign said:
Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

i don't think anyone will be melting them.

Jzyskowski1

@spyglassdesign said:
Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

Their availability at $125 for a 70 Tells it all This is something to get 2-3 and stop thinking about retirement from flipping. Really. The W proofs are selling for cost and you can still buy the dang burnished, right now, over 2 months later, from the mint🤨
Just my opinion but your about to find yourself buried in 2022 proofs.
Just my 2 percent. 😉🦫🙀

ricko

Definitely looks like an overall losing venture as stated in the OP. Pay attention to the voices of experience here... If you choose not to, please post the results of your venture. Cheers, RickO

Glen2022

Do those who buy the 40-coin trays pay the same price for the coin, $73.00 per coin as the rest of us? If they get a discount, what is the price per coin?

Mintage figures are too high. I think I will reduce my order to 1, and buy a PR70DCAM First Strike as suggested by djm. I wonder if the prices will go down after the initial interest lessens and people begin to realize that the mintage is high?

MetroD

@Glen2022 said:
Do those who buy the 40-coin trays pay the same price for the coin, $73.00 per coin as the rest of us? If they get a discount, what is the price per coin?

Mintage figures are too high. I think I will reduce my order to 1, and buy a PR70DCAM First Strike as suggested by djm. I wonder if the prices will go down after the initial interest lessens and people begin to realize that the mintage is high?

If I am not mistaken, the 40-coin trays are part of the 'numismatic bulk purchase program'.
Link: https://catalog.usmint.gov/bulk-purchase-program-landing.html#numismatic

Cannot address whether the pre-discount price is lower due to differences in packaging (i.e., the tray).
Perhaps someone else will chime in ...

Edited to Add -
FWIW, I just found this:

Source: https://catalog.usmint.gov/american-eagle-2021-one-ounce-silver-uncirculated-coin-bulk-pack-21EGN040.html

The price for an individually packaged 21EGN was $67.00.

Source: https://catalog.usmint.gov/american-eagle-2021-one-ounce-silver-uncirculated-coin-21EGN.html?cgid=2021-product-schedule

So, it appears that the pre-discount price on the 40-coin tray is the same as the price for an individually packaged coin
(i.e., $67.00 * 40 units = $2,680.00).

Project Numismatics

There’s no flip opportunity here! By the time you pay grading fees, selling fees (more shipping and packing costs), and take the selling risk (returns, price movement risk, grading delays, lost packages, etc), you will certainly lose money.

Btw, a major dealer is offering PCGS FS 70s for $125 on eBay- even cheaper than the $129 quoted above. What’s bad for flippers is good for collectors - pick up a 70 for $125 and enjoy!

spyglassdesign

@J2035 said:
There’s no flip opportunity here! By the time you pay grading fees, selling fees (more shipping and packing costs), and take the selling risk (returns, price movement risk, grading delays, lost packages, etc), you will certainly lose money.

Btw, a major dealer is offering PCGS FS 70s for $125 on eBay- even cheaper than the $129 quoted above. What’s bad for flippers is good for collectors - pick up a 70 for $125 and enjoy!

Ah yes, seller fees. Ebay is nuts on those

Project Numismatics

@spyglassdesign said:

@J2035 said:
There’s no flip opportunity here! By the time you pay grading fees, selling fees (more shipping and packing costs), and take the selling risk (returns, price movement risk, grading delays, lost packages, etc), you will certainly lose money.

Btw, a major dealer is offering PCGS FS 70s for $125 on eBay- even cheaper than the $129 quoted above. What’s bad for flippers is good for collectors - pick up a 70 for $125 and enjoy!

Ah yes, seller fees. Ebay is nuts on those

Not to derail the thread, but eBay selling fees are quite reasonable and are particularly low for the bullion category if you have a store.

Alternative is building and maintaining your own site and paying advertising costs to draw eyeballs. That’s easily going to cost you 7% of revenue.

spyglassdesign

@J2035 said:

@spyglassdesign said:

@J2035 said:
There’s no flip opportunity here! By the time you pay grading fees, selling fees (more shipping and packing costs), and take the selling risk (returns, price movement risk, grading delays, lost packages, etc), you will certainly lose money.

Btw, a major dealer is offering PCGS FS 70s for $125 on eBay- even cheaper than the $129 quoted above. What’s bad for flippers is good for collectors - pick up a 70 for $125 and enjoy!

Ah yes, seller fees. Ebay is nuts on those

Not to derail the thread, but eBay selling fees are quite reasonable and are particularly low for the bullion category if you have a store.

Alternative is building and maintaining your own site and paying advertising costs to draw eyeballs. That’s easily going to cost you 7% of revenue.

Without a store it's 13%...

Jzyskowski1

@spyglassdesign said:

@J2035 said:

@spyglassdesign said:

@J2035 said:
There’s no flip opportunity here! By the time you pay grading fees, selling fees (more shipping and packing costs), and take the selling risk (returns, price movement risk, grading delays, lost packages, etc), you will certainly lose money.

Btw, a major dealer is offering PCGS FS 70s for $125 on eBay- even cheaper than the $129 quoted above. What’s bad for flippers is good for collectors - pick up a 70 for $125 and enjoy!

Ah yes, seller fees. Ebay is nuts on those

Not to derail the thread, but eBay selling fees are quite reasonable and are particularly low for the bullion category if you have a store.

Alternative is building and maintaining your own site and paying advertising costs to draw eyeballs. That’s easily going to cost you 7% of revenue.

Without a store it's 13%...

Still an amazing deal. Can’t come close to building something similar and they do have a gazillion eyes on product. Let’s see, alternative B&M, nope, cost way more. 13% seems high to you? Could you please explain how I can get a similar deal at 26%, let alone 13%. What a bargain, no? 😉🙀🦫

Glen2022

I ordered a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping and dropped my enrollment quantity to 1. I think it is smart to do this because of the expense in grading, delays, postage, and no guarantee of a 70.

What is the difference if any between DCAM and Ultra Cam?

Goldbully

@Glen2022 said:
I ordered a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping and dropped my enrollment quantity to 1. I think it is smart to do this because of the expense in grading, delays, postage, and no guarantee of a 70.

What is the difference if any between DCAM and Ultra Cam?

PCGS=DCAM
NGC=Ultra Cam

HoneyMarket

@Goldbully said:

@Glen2022 said:
I ordered a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping and dropped my enrollment quantity to 1. I think it is smart to do this because of the expense in grading, delays, postage, and no guarantee of a 70.

What is the difference if any between DCAM and Ultra Cam?

PCGS=DCAM
NGC=Ultra Cam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbkDa0OZetk

Glen2022

Thank you for the explanations

jmlanzaf

@Glen2022 said:
Do those who buy the 40-coin trays pay the same price for the coin, $73.00 per coin as the rest of us? If they get a discount, what is the price per coin?

Mintage figures are too high. I think I will reduce my order to 1, and buy a PR70DCAM First Strike as suggested by djm. I wonder if the prices will go down after the initial interest lessens and people begin to realize that the mintage is high?

The price ALWAYS goes down... and it's not because people become aware of the mintage. It's because they distribution gets broadened as all the people sell their extras. Any initial price bonus is simply artificial scarcity based on the initial distribution. If there was a hard limit of one coin per buyer, these likely wouldn't even sell out.

CoinMeister

I decided to cancel my subscription with the mint and go with a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping. After doing the math, this seemed like the best route. For those that are purists, I can understand obtaining one from the mint. However, for a graded 70, this to me, was a no brainer.

erscolo

Oddly enough I received an email from the United States Mint to "Reminder: Please confirm your account details to ensure Enrollment delivery." I did enroll for this with the new enrollments for 2023 and beyond, but never for 2022, nor the San Francisco proof. Anyhow, I want the coin and this will make it easier over the sometimes feeding frenzy on sales opening day. I am glad they sent the mail, for I do not need two of these.

spyglassdesign

@erscolo I've reduced my enrollment dramatically. Just enough to hopefully guarantee a 70 or two, send that/those coins in and flip the rest at or slightly above cost. We shall see!

HoneyMarket

@spyglassdesign said:
@erscolo I've reduced my enrollment dramatically. Just enough to hopefully guarantee a 70 or two, send that/those coins in and flip the rest at or slightly above cost. We shall see!

If you don't mind my asking, what's your final order amount (formula) look like as to hopefully obtaining a 70 or two?
Two, Six, Ten ???

Here's to hoping you get lucky and get all 70's!

Jzyskowski1

I can’t resist 😁
Do you flip a coin to decide how to send? 😉🙀🦫

spyglassdesign

@HoneyMarket said:

@spyglassdesign said:
@erscolo I've reduced my enrollment dramatically. Just enough to hopefully guarantee a 70 or two, send that/those coins in and flip the rest at or slightly above cost. We shall see!

If you don't mind my asking, what's your final order amount (formula) look like as to hopefully obtaining a 70 or two?
Two, Six, Ten ???

Here's to hoping you get lucky and get all 70's!

I'm going with five. Considering (from what I can tell from my searching), half of coins sent get 70's, and if I review them beforehand with my loupe, I should be able to up my chances. It's no guarantee of course. Just playing the odds. If they all have disqualifying marks then I won't even bother, and just try to get my money back out of them and do what others have done... buy one.

I would hope at least 1 in 5 would have a chance?

stawick

@CoinMeister said:
I decided to cancel my subscription with the mint and go with a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping. After doing the math, this seemed like the best route. For those that are purists, I can understand obtaining one from the mint. However, for a graded 70, this to me, was a no brainer.

You guys have me considering this for the future. However, I realized why I prefer to do things the "hard" way. I want the TVs (with gold shield now), and I really dont care to pay the premium for FDOI or 1st Strike or Advance Release, etc. Great if thats what others prefer, but it baffles me why that commands a premium (the way I see it, its the same coin).

stawick

@erscolo said:
Oddly enough I received an email from the United States Mint to "Reminder: Please confirm your account details to ensure Enrollment delivery." I did enroll for this with the new enrollments for 2023 and beyond, but never for 2022, nor the San Francisco proof. Anyhow, I want the coin and this will make it easier over the sometimes feeding frenzy on sales opening day. I am glad they sent the mail, for I do not need two of these.

I noted that in the other "****" ASE thread. Curious if the Mint really "means" it ... ie, the enrollment is applicable to the 2022 ASE-S MM. It seems so, tho.

spyglassdesign

@stawick same re the first strike etc. But hey that's what the market likes I guess.

stawick

@spyglassdesign said:

@HoneyMarket said:

@spyglassdesign said:
@erscolo I've reduced my enrollment dramatically. Just enough to hopefully guarantee a 70 or two, send that/those coins in and flip the rest at or slightly above cost. We shall see!

If you don't mind my asking, what's your final order amount (formula) look like as to hopefully obtaining a 70 or two?
Two, Six, Ten ???

Here's to hoping you get lucky and get all 70's!

I'm going with five. Considering (from what I can tell from my searching), half of coins sent get 70's, and if I review them beforehand with my loupe, I should be able to up my chances. It's no guarantee of course. Just playing the odds. If they all have disqualifying marks then I won't even bother, and just try to get my money back out of them and do what others have done... buy one.

I would hope at least 1 in 5 would have a chance?

5 is what I've been doing lately, but may reduce back to my old-usual of 2 starting in 2023.
I've gotten about half 70s, but have also seen 5 x 69s and even a couple 67s show up back in 2020 ASE-W.

spyglassdesign

@stawick may the odds ever be in our favor? 😅

CoinMeister

@stawick said:

@CoinMeister said:
I decided to cancel my subscription with the mint and go with a PCGS PF70DCAM FDOI for $129.00 on ebay with free shipping. After doing the math, this seemed like the best route. For those that are purists, I can understand obtaining one from the mint. However, for a graded 70, this to me, was a no brainer.

You guys have me considering this for the future. However, I realized why I prefer to do things the "hard" way. I want the TVs (with gold shield now), and I really dont care to pay the premium for FDOI or 1st Strike or Advance Release, etc. Great if thats what others prefer, but it baffles me why that commands a premium (the way I see it, its the same coin).

A PCGS 70 is a PCGS 70. But FDOI and First Strike are different. That’s been discussed in a previous thread.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1049477/pcgs-first-strike-vs-first-day-of-issue
Obviously, it depends what label you want. There are plenty being offered. For me, I wanted a PF70DCAM (usually FS). I saw a FS ($125) and FDOI ($129) from several dealers. So for $4 more, I went for the FDOI. This is just a personal preference and nothing against anyone else’s collecting strategy. For me, the math didn’t work to buy from the mint and send it in hoping for a 70 then add on FS (I can’t get FDOI sending in one or two coins). So I canceled my subscription and bought a sure thing.

7Jaguars

@spyglassdesign said:
Also I'm considering that there will only be 200k available... Which should result in more value down the line as they get scarce.

Yikes, I guess we all have different ideas of scarcity......Much as I do like SAE's, this is past the 125k mark (IMHO still too high a number) that is my usual cutoff. I did make the exception for the two coin set last year and then never looked at the set again....

Glen2022

POP stats for 2022W ASE's as of 8/6/22

2022W DCAM total graded 31,752 total PR70 26,704 Percent at PRDCAM 70 = 84.1%

Don't know if S mint will have a similar percentage of 70's

for comparison with 2021S DCAM T2

2021S DCAM total graded 17,727 total PR70 14562 Percent at PRDCAM70 = 82.1 %

Pretty close.

So it would appear that slightly more than 4 out of 5 submitted for grading receive a 70. I suspect that some submissions are screened so those that are obviously not a 70 are not submitted.

djm

@Glen2022 said:
POP stats for 2022W ASE's as of 8/6/22

2022W DCAM total graded 31,752 total PR70 26,704 Percent at PRDCAM 70 = 84.1%

Don't know if S mint will have a similar percentage of 70's

for comparison with 2021S DCAM T2

2021S DCAM total graded 17,727 total PR70 14562 Percent at PRDCAM70 = 82.1 %

Pretty close.

So it would appear that slightly more than 4 out of 5 submitted for grading receive a 70. I suspect that some submissions are screened so those that are obviously not a 70 are not submitted.

This is an invalid analysis, because most of the coins sent in are sent in by large dealers and they prescreen their coins and only send in the ones they are sure will be graded 70. The majority of the 69's come from collectors who are unable to tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 or send in sealed boxes to get the First Strike designation.

HATTRICK

@djm
You are 200% correct!

jmlanzaf

@djm said:

@Glen2022 said:
POP stats for 2022W ASE's as of 8/6/22

2022W DCAM total graded 31,752 total PR70 26,704 Percent at PRDCAM 70 = 84.1%

Don't know if S mint will have a similar percentage of 70's

for comparison with 2021S DCAM T2

2021S DCAM total graded 17,727 total PR70 14562 Percent at PRDCAM70 = 82.1 %

Pretty close.

So it would appear that slightly more than 4 out of 5 submitted for grading receive a 70. I suspect that some submissions are screened so those that are obviously not a 70 are not submitted.

This is an invalid analysis, because most of the coins sent in are sent in by large dealers and they prescreen their coins and only send in the ones they are sure will be graded 70. The majority of the 69's come from collectors who are unable to tell the difference between a 69 and a 70 or send in sealed boxes to get the First Strike designation.

They can also specify the minimum grade. 69s sell for less than raw, usually, so they don't want to pay for a slab just to crack it back out.