An Interesting Comparison of Value (Price) versus Scarcity for a Few Selected US Dimes

Eddi

OK, I fully understand the concept of Supply and Demand, and the fact that if a collectable (a coin in this case) is scarce does NOT automatically mean that it will have an accordingly high value (price).

However, as a Capped Bust Dime collector I still find it interesting to compare the 1916-D Mercury dime to 1809 and 1822 Capped Bust dimes.

I do not collect Mercury dimes, so I do know how difficult are these to find, but I do know that many collectors strive to have one. I learnt from PCGS Coinfacts that there are up to 10000 1916-D dimes in existence. That high number surprised me.

Looking at the 1809 and 1809 Dimes on the other side, with extant population estimates of 200-300 and 200-250 respectively, I can as collector vouch for how difficult these are to find.

I decided today, out of curiosity, to compare the values for PCGS -graded 1916-D, 1809 and 1822 dimes coins in a few selected grades, in this case 1-20, i.e, low grades, but typical collector grades, at least for the scarce but dimes.

Here is a comparison table taking the values from the PCGS pricing guide. I hope this is allowed. Also, please excuse the table is a bit skewed and difficult to read, (a reflection of my poor computer skills).

I was surprised that a scarce coin such as the 1809 dime is priced (valued) at approximately the same level as a 1916-D dime in this grade range.
The 1822 dime on the other hand is valued higher than a 1916-D dime, but still not a a level which in any way reflects how difficult this coin is to find, assuming you want one.

I am assuming that 1916-D dimes are readily available in these lower grade ranges if a collector wants one. The population estimate numbers, at least, would seem to indicate it is.

I know that many such comparisons can be drawn in other coin series with similar results: that some issues are valued higher that others, in spite of much larger populations. Demand will dictate the value. However, this is one example which really struck me.

I Would much appreciate hearing your thoughts,

Smudge

Popularity trumps rarity.

jmlanzaf

Could you run the same analysis but of bust dimes versus Irish back tokens?

[Spoiler alert: you'll be shocked at how "over-valued" the bust dimes are. ]

Nysoto

Include the 1800-1804 dimes for price/scarcity anomalies. They are roughly comparable to 1794 dollar known population. Even more scarce are collectors of draped bust dimes, which explains the pricing oddity.

TPRC

In addition, isn't there still a "hoarder" of 1809 dimes out there.....someone trying to corner the market and drive the price up by buying up as many 1809s as possible. This type of possible artificial manipulation always bothered me when I collected bust dimes.

lilolme

@Eddi said:

I know that many such comparisons can be drawn in other coin series with similar results: that some issues are valued higher that others, in spite of much larger populations. Demand will dictate the value. However, this is one example which really struck me.

I Would much appreciate hearing your thoughts,

I think your last paragraph covered it fairly well. As far as why this one struck you. Maybe you are a little 'closer' to it collecting-wise.

WCC

@Smudge said:
Popularity trumps rarity.

I'd describe it as collector preference. The price on the 1916-D dime makes it evident that collectors do now (and did) like this coin a lot, as they can buy a very wide variety of alternatives with the same money.

keyman64

You might enjoy my Mercury Dime Key/Semi-Key Date Analysis from 10 years ago. The 1916-D is NOT the key to the series in Mint State or Mint State Full Bands.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/858446/mercury-dime-key-semi-key-analysis