Comparing Issue Collectibility Across Grade / Condition Rarity
Using PCGS population and price data, I compared four different U.S. late 19th and early 20th century issues. I sampled 12-15 dates for each of the four issues and for each date identified the grade that corresponded to Top 10 condition rarity, Top 50 condition rarity, and Top 100 condition rarity. From there, I looked at the PCGS price for date and grade combination identified in the previous step. From there, I ran some summary statistics - basically looking at mean and median prices for each condition rarity category (e.g., Top 10, Top 50, etc.). Here's what I discovered: (1) Top 100 $10 Gold Indians trade at a discount to Top 100 $20 gold indians; (2) Top 100 Walking Liberties trade at a premium to $10 Gold Indians; 5c Liberty Nickels trade a discount - period. Some side notes: The cross issue comparisons above control for differences in melt value; there's likely tons of distortion in this analysis given the prevalence of cracking and regrading; the above analysis also assumes that you put stock in PCGS prices. If you're an investment-minded collector, please let me know your thoughts on the above analysis. I'm trying to learn here!