Population Reports

JMoo100

I am currently reading David Bower's Book - Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins and in the book he discusses how population reports from grading services like PCGS and NGC are not necessarily accurate reflections of the population of uncirculated coins (i.e., lots of mint state coins are currently sitting raw and have not been submitted to grading services yet). Aside from knowledge gained through years / decades in the industry, how might a beginner / intermediate collector mitigate the risk of acquiring a coin that appears rare based on population reports, but is actually quite common given large ungraded inventory?

Randoms

Look to see how many are for sale. eBay is a good example. If not to many are for sale or have been sold that may be an indication

lilolme

It could help if you narrowed the discussion to what type of coin / series you are thinking about. Mint products, modern coins, earlier 20th century, old or classics. Answers could vary.

JMoo100

I predominantly collect late 19th and early 20th century silver coins (silver dollars, walkers, etc.).

djm

@JMoo100 said:
I predominantly collect late 19th and early 20th century silver coins (silver dollars, walkers, etc.).

Considering we are 35 years in on certifying these types of coins. The majority of higher-grade coins have already been certified. If you are looking at lower grade mint state coins MS63 and below there are many that have not been certified yet as they haven't been worth the investment.

lilolme

What @djm said.

Another way to think of it is, the market for these type of coins is well established and the price for say a common TPG MS63 is with the knowledge that all the uncertified examples exist. These may even trade in bulk sometimes. So while the book is correct that the population reports do not represent all the ungraded examples, the ungraded examples are known.

To get some idea of which ones might be common with many ungraded examples you could look at the pcgs price guide. The Morgan type price for a MS63 and MS64 currently is 96 and 155 (wow that has gone up since I last looked). So if you page down the list of prices and see any priced at or near those numbers, it is a decent bet that they are common and with many ungraded examples in the market. Again a well established market.

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/detail/morgan-dollar/744/most-active

gumby1234

Population reports aren't even accurate for just the graded coins. Many coins get cracked out and resubmitted over and over again. Then many people buy slabbed coins and then crack them out and put them into an album. Later when the collection gets sold somebody else submits for grading. Unless its a pop of 1 then there is no way to know the accuracy.

alefzero

Depends on when Bowers wrote it. Into the 1990s, Stack's auctions still had primarily raw coins. There were still a lot more cabinet collectors than today.

Apart from that, pop reports are off due to crackout regrades and crossovers without tag returns. This is most true with the most sensitive of dates and varieties. When a single point upgrade more than doubles the market valuation, you better believe such candidate coins have been resubmitted many times. The only way to really get a pulse on populations is to watch the market for them over many years. But now with auction archives, a good and careful student of those coins can do so much more quickly. Need to recognize duplicates reappearing in other holders though.

jmlanzaf

@djm said:

@JMoo100 said:
I predominantly collect late 19th and early 20th century silver coins (silver dollars, walkers, etc.).

Considering we are 35 years in on certifying these types of coins. The majority of higher-grade coins have already been certified. If you are looking at lower grade mint state coins MS63 and below there are many that have not been certified yet as they haven't been worth the investment.

Perhaps the majority of higher VALUE coins. I would be willing to bet there are more raw than slabbed Morgans and Walkers in 64 or under. Even 65 might well be more raw than slabbed, at least for common dates.

ricko

Years of study, population reports, auctions, forums etc. And even then, the results will be approximations. However, you will have gained considerable knowledge along the way. Cheers, RickO

streeter

You just have to 'get a feel' for what is out there.

Some coins have a price that doesn't corrolate to how scarce they are. A 14-d lincoln, 16-d Merc or a 1916 slq in high au condition would generate a lot of interest and possibly blow past the price guide.

You have to mesh your knowledge of prices, pop reports and coins you seldom see to get that feel.

ms71

Deep and ongoing study of the market is the only way to get a good feel for "what's out there". Most, of course, undertake such a study with a very limited number of specific series or specialty areas.