The coin market had a meltdown at the 1980 CSNS show..,
MrEureka
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The market dropped roughly 30% in a couple of days. A true meltdown.
Has the market ever had a comparably strong melt-up? Call them “famous last words”, but could the market jump 30% at CSNS next week?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Wasn't 1989 the dreg?
Andy, in answer to your questions - 1) To my knowledge, no.; 2) “Could”, as in chances of more than 0%, sure, but not by any meaningful possibility.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Maybe, if silver explodes up instead of crashing down.
I remember the 1980 collapse. What I don't remember is just what event set it off. Does anyone know?
Yes.
What was the trigger then? What do you expect to happen that would become the trigger now?
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I know someone, a dealer, who passed off a $1,000 bag of coin silver for around $32k and the next morning its value was around $16k. When I hear stories like that I'm happy that at the time I was recently married, starting to raise a family and had nothing in the budget for coins. To echo Mark, I wouldn't ever expect an overnight surge like that again, mainly because of the way our Uncle changed the rules on the Hunt Bros.
Was the Hunt Brothers silver market debacle?
Yup. Silver plunged after reaching $50 per oz after the government raised the margin rate to force the Hunt Brothers to sell their holdings.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
From what I have been reading and hearing there is a shortage of supply in many areas of the market. A short supply with an increase in demand can be a formula for increased prices. However, if the supply is as short as some reports have stated (many advertising to buy, can't find stuff, big want list, smaller inventory...), then there are not enough coins available to push the market that much higher. Without enough trades being made it is difficult to push prices that much higher across the market. Could a small localized area of the market jump up that much - well I would guess it could. Just my thinking.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
The silver market crashed March 27. Giant coin dealer tax bills came due April 15. And some large March Garrett auction invoices payable in April added icing to the cake. But the coin market didn’t actually tank until precisely April 19, at CSNS in Lincoln, Nebraska.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
1979 was insane. Everybody made tons of money in coins. A certain large company in New England neglected to give some of that to Uncle Sam as estimated tax payments.
Early in 1980 the Hunt Brothers corner failed, but the numismatic market sailed on at full speed like the Titanic. Then Garrett 2 was held and certain New England company bought several high profile items. Central States happened just before April 15. Certain company tried dumping said high profile items at less than they had just paid for them, as everybody with a marked catalogue knew. Panic broke out.
Just to keep up with current inflation, coins need to double in price every 10 years or so just to maintain their value. Not to be a Debbie downer, but our current "hot market" might not be much ahead of this.
And back then, there was no PCGS or NGC, sight-unseen bids, two way markets or market liquidity. As I recall, most dealers simply didn’t want to buy much of anything, even at prices that were down sharply from only days before. There was very little desire to even look at other dealers’ coins, as most market participants were much more interested in trying to sell their material. It was almost as if trading came to a halt.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I didn’t attend the show and I’ve never heard the story about the New England firm. Could easily be true, although the market was going to tank with or without that particular spark. Regardless, the most interesting thing about the story to me, assuming it’s true, is that I can easily see the part about unpaid estimated taxes being mostly a cover story. I mean, if you want to sell your coins without scaring off buyers, what could be better than telling them that you have to sell because you’ve been making a bloody fortune?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Yet smaller melt-ups are not uncommon. Even the recent Baltimore show and S-B Fairmount auction were melt-ups of some magnitude. So why not an even bigger one?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I don’t consider the results of a sale (or a few sales) as constituting a market melt-up or melt-down. As for the show, I wasn’t there, but would be surprised if it represented a melt-up of meaningful magnitude. How low is your bar set regarding what constitutes a “melt-up”?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I never set a specific bar, but 30% up at one show would certainly clear any bar I might have set. Regardless, I’m sure we can agree that the market sometimes makes some very quick and significant moves, regardless of what we call those moves.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have se> @MFeld said:
I have seen quite a few time (which I would assume means you countless) where one big auction result resets the market and almost the next day all dealers adjust there prices to match and many times that becomes the new price point
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I was there and did not know that the market had went down. I bought a super condition rare National Bank Note from a dealer that must have needed cash. I bought it for far less than he had been offering it for the past year. I still have it in my collection. It is now worth at least 15X what I paid for it.
I guess I’m stuck on the “melt-up” characterization that was brought up previously. That sounds very different to me than even a noticeable change in pricing, based on a strong auction and/or show.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I am expecting this again sometime in future, when is the question. market is just way too hot. Stuff that is so common is being propelled to levels I have never seen in 40+ years of doing coins.
Trying to stay out of politics , but something as simple as change in leadership in congress in nov, admin in a few years, serious escalation on the world stage could start the chain reaction.
I don't believe the entire coin market could evenly jump 30% in a week, but I think some sectors have gone up more than 30% in the past six months.
All I know was that my collection considered most of the value in my coins was in pieces from 1793 to 1807, and I did not get hit that badly. I had pulled back from the overheated market for late 18th and early 19th century coins a year and a half a half before.
I just saw a local dealer sell an 1881-S dollar in MS-65 for just over $200. I thought that was too much until I looked at the Grey Sheet.
Some prices are too high right now because of inflation and excessive concerns about the pandemic. I would not wanting to be holding high population coins fight now with “condition census” as their main “investment merit.”
The market melted down pretty quick (at least on stuff like generic dollars) at the start of the pandemic, and came absolutely raging back and then some. That was a pretty insane roller coaster. IE I watched GSA's go from $225 bid to $300 bid in a month. Watched generic unc bid go from $30 to $51 in 6 weeks. I can relate more to this recent action as it happened "in my time" as opposed to hearing the old timers talk about 1979-1980 and 1987-1990.
2021 was pretty nuts, but yeah, nothing like the volatility described here around 1980.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Pent up anxiety from COVID lockdown and money that seems to be burning a hole in everyone's pockets strikes me as the root cause of what's going on. To echo what others have said, auction prices on even common/scarce listing seem to be high as bidders don't seem to be looking ahead, they only know they can afford to spend.
A dealer at the Parsippany show who does a lot with bullion told me in 2009 when the prices dropped the next morning, that he had locked in his sell prices on the Sunday before the collapse before he walked out into the parking lot.
The Hunt Bros. trying to corner the Silver market as well as other goings-on in the coin industry in general... but remember, all of that was against the backdrop of "stagflation" caused by OPEC cutting production and inflating the cost of oil/petroleum products. We have some similar elements at play currently... cost of oil... but for different reasons. The Pandemic and pent up urge for spending as well as the war in Ukraine... all affecting oil production and consumption...
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Very interesting stories so far,
As for the OPs 30% melt up, well if the gold price suddenly shot up to $3000 per Oz, then you would have your melt up across all generic gold at least. Hard to say what that would do to some older Coppers, but I imaging Generic Silver Dollars would increase in step or even a bit more in that scenario
It's all about what the people want...