Debbie downer here

jkrk

No that is not my real name for you purists!

AS I sit here in the wee small hours in the morning.... I was glancing through the boards.

I started to think about turnaround times for the various grading services (henceforth called bananas so I don't start a flame war in this post). I guess the backup in wait times is due to the uptick in pricing on coins in general? Higher prices tends to bring out more turnover as those sitting on coins for awhile send their merchandise to the Bananas. Higher turnover means those raw coins need to be graded. Thus more auctions, new high prices and an overall good feeling emerges within the hobby. I can tell you about how smart I am witnessing 10/20/30 % gains on what I bought only a few years ago. Insert brains and a bull market here. Is the trade getting easy? Will easy money cause the trend to continue? Is it too early to monitor the environment for a turndown? Should I be thrown off the boards for even broaching the subject?

Thus I think about what would be early indicators that the game could be a bit frothy? The yield curve is only in the high 2's so is the FEd really tightening, at this point or still subsidizing inflation? Meaning, someone turned turned the music down somewhat but not really in a meaningful way as of yet?

I guess my rambling is for the Vets who have seen cycles in the coin markets over the past 30-50 years. Did the hobby mirror the metals markets? inflation? General economy? New hobbies on the rise ? Something else? Once the turn came, how quickly did liquidity disappear? Anything else you would like to add?

As i said, call me Debbie Downer for asking questions?

291fifth

Since I no longer buy I don't have the best "feel" for the current market. What I can tell you is that when the severe downturns took place in 1964 and the early and late 1980's, times when I was active, the downturns came quickly.
If you no longer have confidence in the market then take actions to protect yourself sooner rather than later.

jmlanzaf

When the "trade" gets easy, it's speculation not collecting. Collectors should not be turning over their collections every 2 to 3 years.

ricko

Looking at the overall economy - here and in other major countries - it is predicted that a recession is imminent. This could become major (a depression) or fleeting. It would be wise to act judiciously prior to this likely event. Reduce debt, consolidate funds, invest carefully. Fasten your financial seat belts - Cheers, RickO

bolivarshagnasty

Dear Debbie, I don't remember anyone here predicting the uptick in coin values when it started. (nor the pandemic) In fact, I was following the PCGS 3000 composite and it had been declining for a dozen years. I doubt anyone will be able to successfully predict the next downturn. If coin collecting has become stressful to you, may I suggest selling now and not worrying about what future gains you may miss.

oldabeintx

Isn't there a large volume of modern coinage being graded? I assume those are handled by different graders, but the other steps in the process may be slowing things down. That data is available, no? I.e. what volume of US coins representing the market in question are being graded today vs. earlier periods?

pursuitofliberty

The question becomes are you and Investor or a Collector?

Always a spirited debate, I hope my coins give me a decent ROI, where ROI is a Return OF Investment.

My investments (Equities, Bonds, Commodities, RE) require thought and planning for a decent ROI, where ROI is a Return ON Investment.

Big difference.

While my coins and paper are worth "real" money, and I try to have a discerning eye toward future value, they are not really Investments per se, as much as my advanced hobby.

In all cases, chasing trends and being in a rush can be a bane to how any returns play out.

Jzyskowski1

My collection has zero to do with investment. There are many better avenues for leaving a monetary legacy.
I hope that my collection’s can remain together until they find a proper keeper. And that’s how my collection is valued. Hobby with the bonus of having tangible value.

Personally, I’d like to see one of the relatives maybe because a dealer. 😉🙀🦫

ROI. Return OF investment. Great comment. I agree, if that happens you did pretty good 👍🏼

mr1931S

I guess my rambling is for the Vets who have seen cycles in the coin markets over the past 30-50 years. Did the hobby mirror the metals markets? inflation? General economy? New hobbies on the rise ? Something else? Once the turn came, how quickly did liquidity disappear? Anything else you would like to add?

If you collect/invest/believe in nice stuff, liquidity is never a problem.

That's all I have to add...except for this,

I can tell you about how smart I am witnessing 10/20/30 % gains on what I bought only a few years ago. Insert brains and a bull market here. Is the trade getting easy? Will easy money cause the trend to continue? Is it too early to monitor the environment for a turndown? Should I be thrown off the boards for even broaching the subject?