Is The 70-D Kennedy Half Dollar Undervalued?
BLUEJAYWAY
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With just over 2 million minted might seem so. Your opinions.
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My comments are only for the top 3 grades…
In about 35 years of grading coins, PCGS has only graded 18 in 66+, 18 in 67 and 1 in 67+. That averages about 1 coin graded a year in 66+ or better!! Make no mistake about it, these coins are very hard to locate in these grades. And, lovely MS66 examples are tough to find as well.
The PG shows $820 for the 66+ grade but no sale reported for 6 years. I think that price level is too low and that grade is worth closer to a $1300 -$1,500 level. The MS67 price seems about right as does the MS67+ price for the pop 1 of $20,000. But, I own the coin (full disclosure) and wouldn’t sell it at that level right now. The coin is in a number of important registry sets, including the Top 100 Moderns and I have been approached by a few collectors recently to sell that set that obviously includes this pop 1 MS67+ 1970-D as an important coin in the set. If the coin remains pop 1 in the future, I will likely be asking more than full PG. If the coin does not remain pop 1 in the future, I will likely be figuring the coin below full PG if and when I sell off the Top 100 Modern set.
That’s my answer on the high end examples. I leave it to anyone else to discuss the low MS quality examples.
Just my 2 cents as the “stronger” buyer of super high grade 1970-D 50C PCGS specimens.
Wondercoin
Many years ago, I read there are two of these Flat Pack Mint Set only 1970D Off Center Struck known.
I think it is under graded at MS63.
I have mainly focused on AH Kennedy halves... Though I have others in mint sets. Guess I should look at them sometime... Might have one of those 67 coins...
Cheers, RickO
Not really IMHO. If mintage alone
determined value, the prices of low grade late 19th century proof coins and classic commemoratives would go through the roof. Despite being labeled as a “business” strike, the 1970-D was issued only in Mint Sets and were saved in unc grades with few possible exceptions from broken up sets from burglars or naive heirs that didn’t recognize the silver content.
As for @wondercoin ’s comments, I would be inclined to agree that higher end gems and superb gem examples could be undervalued. I could include some PL issues too; however, I don’t think that is what the OP meant. I assume he is referring to the issue as a whole and not just conditionally scarce/rare grades and designations.
Nice. I wonder how that made it past quality control though.
Massive numbers ungraded in mint sets.
Virtually all of them still exist, most in high grades. It was highly publicized at the time of issue. It is actually a very common coin.
Just trying to find a '70 D in MS66+ has been difficult and an endless search for me.
I have seen two in MS67 grade up for auction / sale recently (one on Heritage), but the price was in the 3K+ range and out of my league.
I do have a MS66 specimen in my registry set.
Thanks @wondercoin for your insight and I hope that you do not sell your registry set.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
Have you looked at a 1970 mint set lately? Massive numbers degraded is more accurate.
Additionally huge numbers of '70 sets are gone now.
'70-D's appear with some regularity in accumulations of 40% half dollars sold as scrap. This is probably because a large minority of 1970 mint set half dollars were ugly the day they left the mint.
The number of nice attractive pristine coins is a fraction of what people believe. If there is ever a demand for nice MS-62 or better '70-D kennedys it will be discovered the supply is quite thin. I like top grades but they are too hard to find so I believe a lot of the real potential is in the "gemmy" brilliant MS-64 and MS-65 coins. Only about 4% were in this condition or better as issued by the mint and they are very very few and far between today due to losses and degradation.
This coin also "frequently" appears in PL (~.5%). Sadly the tarnish preferentially affects the PL surfaces.
People don't collect moderns because there is a perception they are very common and the price guides encourage this perception by grossly understating values. The Redbook lists the '70-D in MS-63 for $16 but the wholesale price is $14. Since many of the coins that trade at wholesale will be MS-64 this price isn't quite so understated as many.
This is one of the five worst sets for tarnish in mint set packaging. These should be removed and stabilized now before the damage becomes permanent.
No, They are priced right at about $15. There are hundreds of them on ebay at any given time. While 2 million may seem to be a low mintage, almost 100% of the mintage survived in BU condition. You have to look at survival rate, not just mintage. Some of the NIFC dates from 2002-2020 are much scarcer already. Some of these dates have mintages below 2 million and have reached circulation. I have found all of these NIFC dates in circulation in coin roll searches, I have not found any 1970-D's in circulation. While a lot of 40% silver dates from 1965-1969 were melted for their silver value, almost no 1970-D's were melted for the silver content.
I doubt there are even half a million surviving in pristine condition and many of these were ugly the day they were minted.
Part of the problem is the definition of the word "surviving". I do not consider a black '70-D or the many sold as scrap silver to be "surviving". Coins that will never be found or are impossible to be returned to original condition did not (will not) "survive". Probably a full third of the mintage no longer exists at all due to loss, fire, and flood. A few have even been recycled for their silver.
Coins simply don't save themselves. It takes a collector and very few people collect moderns because everyone knows they are too common.
I don't really have a dog in this fight but have over the years looked at the 1970 sets and half dollar simply because when they came out I could not afford one, and then there came along the 1970 S small date cent so always wanted to have a set with both (and got one but the half is the USUAL boggy/baggy 63ish. To find acceptable 65s is hard as I don't agree with the grade given many of them but would settle for a "clean" one - actually give up on it and forget it. I think that may be the sad fate of lesser coins such as CuNi clad (etc.) and the mint sets of this era in general.
So I agree with the 15 or so dollar price for ordinary coins and not much premium until the much nicer 65, 66 and above are found...
Well, just Love coins, period.
I'd take a nice 1964 over a 1970-D any day.
Also to play devil’s advocate you couldn’t make the same argument for 1996-W dimes?
To be fair, PCGS hasn't been grading coins with the "+" grade for the 35 years they've been in business.
Other than that small detail, I like your assessment and do believe in ultra-high grades they're tough.
I recall a member here offering 1K many years ago for a PO1- GD04 example. I don't believe he had any takers.
peacockcoins
‘Virtually all of them still exist, most in high grades. It was highly publicized at the time of issue. It is actually a very common coin.’
Virtually all of them still exist - I agree that the majority still exist
Most in high grades -I agree if High grades mean MS62, MS63, MS64. 😂
Wondercoin
Edited to add…
‘’I do have a MS66 specimen in my registry set.”
Wayne - A perfect grade for the money IMHO.
‘‘To be fair, PCGS hasn't been grading coins with the "+" grade for the 35 years they've been in business.
Other than that small detail, I like your assessment and do believe in ultra-high grades they're tough.”
Fair point Pat, so let’s adjust to say on average about every two years, an MS67 coin surfaces at PCGS! This coin is what the “top 100” moderns is all about!!
Wondercoin
‘Many years ago, I read there are two of these Flat Pack Mint Set only 1970D Off Center Struck known.
I think it is under graded at MS63.”
Consign one to an auction and let’s see if the error collectors can compete against the Kennedy collectors! 😉
Wondercoin
One of my biggest regrets was when San Diego had a large coin show (we're going back to the late 1980s here, folks!) I went with my dad and saw a stunningly beautiful 1970-D with the most attractive golden sheen in PCGS MS66. It was blazing, and I have not seen its equal since then. I should have purchased that coin, yet it would have taken up my whole show coin budget, so I did not.
I still think about that coin today and wonder where it is.
peacockcoins
‘I still think about that coin today and wonder where it is.’
Probably in a 67 holder with a shot to go 67+ one day. 😆
Wondercoin
Quality on this issue is much better. Not looking at the current population, but I recall MS68s with and without FB designation being readily available.
@cladking said:
"I doubt there are even half a million surviving in pristine condition and many of these were ugly the day they were minted."
This is true. It seems that they were roughly handled at Denver when bagged and shipped.
There's a lot of minor dings and dangs on most of them, making high UNC examples very rare.
Pete
@cladking said:
"I doubt there are even half a million surviving in pristine condition and many of these were ugly the day they were minted."
This is true. It seems that they were roughly handled at Denver when bagged and shipped.
There's a lot of minor dings and dangs on most of them, making high UNC examples very rare.
Pete
Good point. I was going along with mintage like the OP, but quality of available pieces is definitely a major factor and one I didn’t give enough consideration to in my post.
This date can be found at almost any given coin show, pretty much every raw one is an MS grade. But the higher grades are very tough. I bought what I thought was a blazer that could easily grade 65 or higher; it came back a 64.
I have yet to see an AU or lower example and it doesn't seem like this date has many nicely toned examples either.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
I really like the '96-W a lot but in many ways it is like an old classic coin. People aren't likely to be very picky about what one they get for a collection because they all look alike and they are all high quality. West Point does a pretty good job with all their coins but especially this one. And being so small you have to take a really close look to tell they differ at all. Sure some are virtually flawless and more desirable but 97% of the rest of them look just as nice from arm's length.
While this coin had a far lower mintage than the '70-D it does have a very high survival rate. The packaging is stable and I've never seen one that even needed a soak. Very few get lost or thrown away though they can get lost in the packaging and discarded. More than 90% survive and in pristine condition. That well more than one and a quarter million. I doubt even 30% of the 70'D's survive in pristine condition and 20% of these are so ugly most collectors would pass them up for a nicer example. I'd guess we're talking fewer than 400,000 coins and this number is plummeting because of unstable packaging.
The half dollar was real money in 1970 when you could still buy a sandwich and a cup of coffee with it but the dime in '96 was almost worthless. The half is silver (clad) the dime is base metal. The half is a transition between the old and the new and the dime us a contrivance. It's a good kind of "contrivance" since it was a thank you to long time mint set buyers but it was still a contrivance. The half was a natural part of a series the dime an addition.
I like the dime (I like all coins) but it does not measure up to the history, rarity, or importance of the '70-D half.
I don't know if the high grade coins are cheap or not. I have some doubt that collecting very high grade coins will endure in its current form. Obviously collectors will always want the best and a '70-D in an MS-67 holder is always going to be among the best but there are many ways to collect coins and many possible ways to grade them. Demand must be focused on the coins themselves to be enduring. I believe high grade '70-D halfs are likely to outperform other coins but this will be a fluid market until such time as demand is for the coins themselves.
whatever transpires at the upper end of the market only matters if you are in it. Sure I've got a spectacular specimen stashed in a safety deposit box somewhere but it might be ruined by now. It's lower grade coins that I think might be the important ones. No not AU's (I've got several) and not beautiful pristine MS-62 and 63 but the nice attractive specimens in MS-64 and 65. These coins simply aren't very common and in the mad rush to finds high grades these have been overlooked. As such no one noticed they were scarcer in 1970 and they are far far tougher today. Most '70 mint sets have been destroyed and surviving sets are tarnished.
I've said this 1000 times but coins don't save themselves for future generations. This is what we're all doing ultimately is saving coins for future generations but nobody has been saving moderns since 1965. And '70-D half did not save itself. It was "consumed" by time and neglect.
Bottom line is 400,000 of these is still ample to meet the demand but the only reason it's more than enough is most people have been misled into believing moderns are common. Nobody wants to collect anything "common" so there's little stress on the supply.
I still believe collectors will wake up one day and realize moderns are almost all gone and start collecting them but it could be well into the future. By that time they could be far scarcer than they are today because '70 mint sets are still not being taken care of.
‘most people have been misled into believing moderns are common.”
It happens. Heck, I was misled into believing my Pokémon cards were common junk. Now, if I can only figure out which bankers’ box I carefully (in lovely binders) tossed them all into!!
Wondercoin 😂
1970-D KENNEDY HALF DOLLAR - PCGS MS65 - MINT STATE CERTIFIED GRADED COIN MS 65
Condition:
--not specified
Bulk savings:
Buy 1
$58.00/ea
Got it for $56
I think that for the right 65 that was a good price. However IMHO most 65s just have way too much action on the devices and fields. Pictures?
Well, just Love coins, period.
I picked up 5 sets (max allowed) from the Mint for $2.50 each in late 1970. The price immediately shot up to $12.50 each when the final mintage was announced. It's still around that today, but I don't think it's undervalued.
The 1998-S uncirculated silver Kennedy (mintage ~62,000) is $125. The 2014 silver 4-coin set (mintage 200K) is about $110. The 2017-S enhanced uncirculated (mintage 211K) is around $12.
Granted these coins were available only in sets from the Mint, but so was the 1970-D Kennedy.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I really think that the ‘98 sms is a coin to own.
I already own this coin from SP65 to SP70.
Always looking for coins lower than the SP65.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I brought up this issue in a conversation with a dealer who has been in the business for 50 or so years and he was surprised there were any Kennedys worth good money. And I'm sure there are many others not giving a second look to coins like this.
So, who has a MS66+ at a very decent price?
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
To add credence to early posters (as if that was needed), I dug out my mint set that has the 70-D half. Geez, those coins are of much lesser quality than I would have expected. The 70-D 50c looks like it has counting wheel damage, even though still in the cello...
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Did many 40% Kennedy's get melted during any of the previous silver runs?
I have seen partial sets where the half has been cut out ... I am guessing many went into Kennedy albums to fill the holes.
‘’ I brought up this issue in a conversation with a dealer who has been in the business for 50 or so years and he was surprised there were any Kennedys worth good money. And I'm sure there are many others not giving a second look to coins like this.”
Feel free to tell your dealer friend that my current #1 Registry Set of (114) Kennedy Half Dollars ($57 face value) has a Price Guide value of $218,809.00. And, that PG value is by no means inflated. I recently bought a lot of around $40,000 in Mint State Kennedy 50C (almost all doubles or undergrade coins for me) from a well known classic and modern coin collector and needed to pay roughly 100% of Guide to secure them.
Just because you are in business for 50 years doesn’t make you a “master” of all matters in your field. Please share this information as it is not too late (in fact it is in the early innings in my view) for that dealer to get on the “Kennedy Half train”.
Wondercoin
No. Very few of these have actually been melted. There would be a substantial number because there are lots of '70-D's mixed in with other 40% circs but few 40% coins are being melted. Most of these were cull or substandard coins even before they got mixed in. When the price ran up in 1980 the set was worth too much to scrap.
The price of the '70-D half got pretty low in 1995 with almost all coins. Bid got down in the $5 range for the set but you could get a better premium for "20" nice attractive half dollars. Bid now is $280. The small date cent is going for $45 by itself.
A few more would have been melted in 2008 but again, this was muted.
A lot of these coins are gone now but not too many have been intentionally melted. It's probably barely 5% and the bulk were culls.
I fear many people are not aware that many of the tarnished coins still in the mint sets can often be cleaned in acetone and the coins are being scrapped (ie- mixed with 40% circs).
The mint set market is highly fluid right now but for the first time it's a sellers market. The sets, especially the '70, are not readily available so if you have supply you can make a killing. But you have to beware quality if you are buying or selling.
1970 long before the dawning of TPGing, when the 70-D appeared, I was under the illusion or now delusion, that a 2+ million mintage had some rarity to it. Considering the high mintage figures of other issues. This was based on an assumption that collectors would need it to fill that hole in the Whitman folder, not for a registry accumulation et al. Was it fair to assume that there were +2 million collectors out there in 1970? I do not know. Of course we had as now roll accumulators. Which one would think there would be more of a shortage for the album hole fillers. Perhaps if that mintage figure resided in a more popular series, it's value may have resulted in a higher $ figure.
Sir, you definitely know quality in these later date series. I bought a group of Kennedy halves in an album that frankly were not quality business issue sequentially, but coins he had broken out of mint sets and proof sets. I paid him $155 for the dates from 1964 into the 1980s. I'm just trying to get out of them as a break even and I doubt there was anything special in the group. He also had a group of Jefferson nickels, missing the rare overdates and other pricey issues. I just could not make him a strong offer because again it was a mix of mint set material, not complete some proofs, etc.. I do not know a dealer in the northeast who knows how to value these later date series, but thanks for doing that yourself.
@ Wondercoin
>
I do wish that you would make your sets visible to the public, but I do understand why you do not.
I say this as several of my sets are in the All-Time-Finest listings and I always like to see where I can improve my sets as compared to the top sets.
Not having a '64 SMS or POP1's coins will always keep my sets from being a #1.
My goal is to rise to a #3 ATF set.
I do not sell coins in anyway or form, so my budget is limited.
I do enjoy the hunt.
Go Kennedys.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
Wayne. Hi. I thought many of my sets were open. I can look into opening more of them. And, best of luck to you on that goal of #3 ATF. Obviously, when a billionaire is fighting for the #1 slot on most of these Kennedy sets (as he is), I have no delusions that I may likely drop to just one slot above you down the road. Lesson 1 of the Registry Set game is never fight a billionaire for your coins!! It generally doesn’t end well for you.
I’ll let you know if I can sell you a 70-D MS66+. I think I currently have just 1 of the 17 in the coin universe. But, I don’t know if the coin needs to go back to PCGS for consideration for an MS67. My son Justin took the coin in and I have never seen it to this point.
Wondercoin
When your competition knows what you need for an upgrade, it will become a costly game when dealing with a billionaire who wants to take your #1 spot.
This is what I alluded to in my post for not publicly sharing your set.
With the craziness of today's asking and buying prices, it makes it tough to upgrade a coin at a reasonable price.
When someone wants a coin bad enough, they will pay out the Ying yang.
I missed an upgrade on a coin that PCGS listed at $70.00. It went for 500.00 plus BP.
I bid on it at $100.00.
Oh well.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
Have they dipped below 50c?
🤔
I like the fact that it's a modern condition rarity. It's like going back and finding the earliest example of a certain grade, i.e. the earliest dated MS-70 or PF-70, or even the 69 grade. If the census in the original post remains true, finding a 70-D in MS-68 or MS-69 would practically be a godsend.
There are plenty examples of the issue in the lower Uncirculated grades, I think fifty years of rough handling both at the Mint and outside can prove that. It's really the history of the coin's production that gives it a better sense of value. Reading the above comments, who could have predicted that the Mint would not have eventually made a standard business strike run for commerce instead of stopping short sometime that year?
Imagine if the date was released into circulation. Imagine if intended mintage of the 1894-S dime went through, or think of the "what if" the Mint made some 10,000 West Point nickels for the Unc set, the pandemic hits, Mint Sets continue to be produced but without that extra five cent piece.
It's a fascinating coin and perfect to lure a newbie deeper into the hobby with.
Custom album maker and numismatic photographer.
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I am finding more 70 D’s
appearing up for sale since this thread was posted.
A few are in MS66 but most are in MS64 and MS65.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
If you're a dealer who needs to buy and sell coins in order to pay the bills, how much time are you likely to invest looking for a coin that shows up once every two years?
You rarely see these toned.
Here is a pretty nice one (not my coin).
I wish it were in my minimum grade of MS65, but oh well.
peacockcoins
Strictly my opinion.
Not being a dealer and only a collector, I can spend endless time pursuing a coin in a certain grade.
A dealer who needs to turn inventory to pay the bills, as most, cannot.
Those dealers and collectors who can, will.
When your business creates tremendous cash, you can have others do your watching and buying.
There will always be a cast system.
Those who have it, those who think they have it and those (like me) who wish they did.
I so would like to own a ‘64 SMS Kennedy. Not happening.
I have been looking to purchase a ‘70 D Kennedy in MS66+ for years.
There are more in MS67 but unless a generous collector sends me one, ain’t happening.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I will always believe it is a modern struck for circulation scarcity,rarity or what have you based on the mintage. I disregard those "made for built in rarity mint issues" over the last few decades. Old beliefs die hard.
None are mine. But I welcome the exposure for the coin.