Surprising drop in price realized for a fantastic-looking $5 Gold Indian
ms71
Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was watching a nice 1911 $5 Gold Indian being auctioned on Great Collections last night. PCGS MS65 CAC in an old green holder. It's something that's way out of my end of the pool, but still interesting. It ended up going for $19,698 with the juice (or $19,261 if paid by check). Digging around this morning, I found in CoinFacts where the exact same coin had sold six months ago in a Heritage auction for $24,000 (auction #1333 8/20/21, lot 4163). That's a drop of almost 20% in six months when we've seen strong escalation in prices for top quality gold. What's the best guess for why it was sold again so quickly and went for significantly less than it realized six months ago?
Successful BST transactions: EagleEye, Christos, Proofmorgan,
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
4
Comments
My best guess is that the underbidder six months ago was not participating in this auction. That might be due to having already found a suitable piece in the interim, having spent the funds for this coin on something else or perhaps not being aware that the coin was in another auction.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
It's a thin market. Wide swings are not surprising.
What does the GC photo look like? I realize this may be a valuable enough coin that a buyer will get more information than just a static photo, but for Heritage, that’s a pretty good and large photo. GC’s photos tend to be overexposed and show mostly the slab, not the coin. I’m not buying 5-figure coins anyway, but I find the GC photos subpar even for much less expensive pieces, and I can’t imagine them enticing me to pony up for a big ticket item.
Makes perfect sense and maybe this:
Did the Heritage winner and the underbidder think it was an upgrade candidate and now that it’s on the market 6 months later yesterday’s potential bidders think it’s unlikely to upgrade?
Did the GC consigner have unrealistic expectations of how strong the gold bull market is?
A swing and a miss.
I have a very nice MS-64 that I bought almost decade ago that has come down quite a bit. It can't because the coin is easy to find in true Mint State, In fact the $5 Indian is very hard to find in true Mint State. When I was young collector building the eight piece gold type set in the mid 1960s, that was the one coin I couldn't find in Unc.
Perhaps this type gets lumped in with the "generic gold," which turns investors off, and the demand has dropped for that reason. Even at $19,000, that is not a "collector friendly" number. It's an amount for an investor or major collector.
I really loved this piece and I think I bid up to 17k-ish in the HA auction where it cleared 24. What you may have missed is that it sold again at GC in October for ~20,500 after bp.
Why 3 sales in rapid succession? I can only speculate. Maybe original buyer thought it was an upgrade candidate. When it failed on reconsideration they tried it at GC hoping to get their $$ back in this hot market.
Why a sale again now? Who knows. But 3 sales in rapid succession doesnt inspire confidence, so maybe thats why the price went down again.
I would still pay $17k, but now having spent that $$ on other coins I'd have to trade something for it! I was not a bidder this go around.
Instagram
‘What does the GC photo look like? I realize this may be a valuable enough coin that a buyer will get more information than just a static photo, but for Heritage, that’s a pretty good and large photo. GC’s photos tend to be overexposed and show mostly the slab, not the coin. I’m not buying 5-figure coins anyway, but I find the GC photos subpar even for much less expensive pieces, and I can’t imagine them enticing me to pony up for a big ticket item.’
With all due respect… an illogical argument unless we assume $20,000 coin buyers these days are simply fools. First, I can simply type in the serial number here and in 10 seconds see the last sales price at Heritage. In another 20 seconds, I can enjoy the Heritage pics and the Heritage lot description. No “digging around” needed. I don’t accept for a moment that pics or descriptions at GC had anything to do with the latest price realized. Just my 2 cents. Wondercoin.
The CAC pops for that particular date are quite high in 65.
I would say the Heritage price overshot true values.
I didn't notice the 2nd auction. You're right, two resales so soon after the $24K purchase certainly raises a flag.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Could be. The PCGS price guide goes from $4,250 in 64+ to $20,000 in 65. The CAC price guide is $19,200 in 65.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
It is a bummer to have an auction close when many people are doing something else, like watching a big football game.
Auctions can be strange. I have participated in or attended many auctions, and I have witnessed amazing results at both ends of the spectrum. Often, high prices are paid due to scarcity or testosterone... and low prices because the right people were not present..... Of course, those are exceptions and should be filtered out if looking for useful information in a specific market. Cheers, RickO
Well, I dunno, but I generally wouldn't try to sell something if the auction closed during the Super Bowl.
Well I ended up winning it. I saw the coin in the two recent auctions but was frying other fish so didn’t put in a bid until this time around. I bought it for my half eagle type set.
As you might deduce, I put in a bid right at the John Feigenbaum/CAC price guide. My thinking on the two recent auctions mirrored Pedzola’s thoughts so I didn’t juice my bid (which recently has been the only way I win gold).
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
No, the big ticket investors are not fools, but the prices are reaching the point where they are leaving a lot collectors behind. As I have said before, when you get beyond the comfort level of the collectors with your "investment quality" bids, you are leaving the ultimate consumers behind. That is a recipe for speculation, and when you get to that level, there will be a correction, and it might be severe.
Just think back to just about everything in the early 1980s, and the prices for the “old commemorative” coins circa 1989.
Congrats on the pick up. Part of me hopes you hang onto it and enjoy it. The other part was hoping for two more auctions on the coin so it would move down into my price range
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
This is the unfortunate thing about auctions. Once the auction house has your collectibles, it's hard to control the date your lots appear at auction. Even after being told a specific date, it doesn't always work out.
Cool
Timing is everything!
Everytime I have consigned coins to an auction I have had 100% say regarding the date the coins would be auctioned off.
I wonder if a coin like that is consigned thinking they’re going to make money.
I'd rather buy the MS64 and save $16000 to spend on other coins. Of course, I'm not extremely rich like some of you guys.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yes, I agree.
I am sure that there are those who think I have a second rate collection because it's not filled with "wonder coins" that are "top pop" or at least MS-65. It's a choice that I have made. I have covered a lot of ground with what most collectors would call "nice coins."
If I had had Pougue's money, I would have collected that way, but I didn't. It's my choice, and I am very comfortable with it.
And yes, I have an MS-64 in my $5 Indian type coin slot.
I can't figure it. Someone pays $24K for it. He gets it into an auction 2 months later and someone pays $20K+ for it. He puts it up for auction 4 months later and it brings $19K+. Hard to understand why the first two buyers wanted to sell so soon after buying it, especially the one who paid $24K for it.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
They maybe tried reconsideration to a 66. It is a nice coin, but that would seem long odds IMO.
This.
I’ve consigned multiple coins to GC and this has been my experience also.
GC charges no seller's fee over 1000.00
How hot are Indian $5’s in the current market? Not really my niche, so just wondering if they are appreciating at a high rate similar to no motto coronet $5’s?
My type set is loaded with nice 64's. I believe they represent a great value for a collector. In the case of $2,5 and $5 Indians I can't grade them anyway so a nice 58 looks perfectly fine in the set.
Same here. I’m happy with my 64 for well under $2,000
My YouTube Channel
And the thing about an MS-64, if the price goes down, you might lose a few hundred dollars, not thousands.
The No Motto $5 gold pieces in true Mint State are much scarcer. Five Dollars was a lot of money to set aside before and during the Civil War. I have a few in Mint State, but you might argue whether or not they are Mint State. The highest grade one in an NGC MS-63+.
.> @Wahoo554 said:
I don't claim to be an expert in Indian $5s - I wanted one for my type set. But I did do a little digging on prices of these coins. According to PCGS PriceGuide a type set Indian $5 in PCGS MS65 went for $7500 in June 2021 and is $10,000 today. The 1911 went from $10,000 in June 2021 to $20,000 today.
CAC/CDN generic price is $17,700 for a MS65 and $19,200 for a 1911 MS65.
I think acquiring an MS64 for this series is a fine value play and wouldn’t criticize anyone for electing to find a nice 64 and saving some money.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Nice pick up!!! Love the total package
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Great looking coin---$5 Indians in MS-65 CAC are an incredibly challenging series to put together.
I read somewhere once upon a time that $10,000 represents the level that MOST collectors do not cross when buying specimens for their collection. Generic date gold piece at twice $10K even though nice with green bean and all is not going to be on the acquisition radar for MOST collectors because it is not really all that affordable to them.
I would rather own 10 coins at $2K each to support my collection than one coin at $20K. Opinion.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
I wouldnt judge someone or be critical because they decided to purchase coins at the $2,000 level---not sure why you need to be critical of someone who just purchased a beautiful coin that costs $20,000.
100%
Flashy mint luster is rare in this series, a spectacular unique design IMO.
With CAC CPG MV at $18K it was certainly no pickoff at the 19k plus. Certainly the coin is very nice and this fueled the bidding as PQ pieces will bring more. Seems like a super investment buy to me! What a beautiful coin even if just for type.
Anything can happen at that level.
Very Wealthy collectors may buy something 3 mo ago sell now bc would rather have something else. Big ticket CAC Coins Gotta be a bonanza for the auction house biz.
With it going somewhat above CPG I believe there was a bid war between 2 well off collector / investors. Auc results can be what somebody gave it away for or overpaid - YMMV depending on bidders.
As far as the drop from its last appearance / stuff happens & varies: the play that went for 65 yards against Team A went for 40 yds vs TeamB a couple of weeks later. Who shows up to bid matters.
$20 K can be chump change for a billionaire or large multi milionaire. Sort of like when the average guy splurges on a gourmet burger w premium beer.
The opposite for me but I understand the appeal for some.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Not my point here to be critical of one who has the moola to spend $20K for a single coin. Again, generic date $5 gold piece at 20K is well under the acquisition radar for MOST collectors. Less collectors in the pool for $20K coin could result in price drop from one auction to another of same?
No offense to anyone intended. Just trying to tell it the way I see it.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
I doubt that the number of collectors of $10,000+ coins declined in between the different auction appearances of the coin. 😉That arbitrary threshold is not one of the reasonable explanations for the drop in the price.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
If there was no new high bidder, then the underbidder last time can be the winner this time.
Some people would say it's no longer "fresh".
No offense taken. When I posted that I bought the coin, I assumed there would be some that disagreed with the purchase. Not a problem and if the purchase is a mistake, it isn't my first one.
More than anything, I wanted to point out that it was a collector that purchased the coin, not a speculator or cryptomillenial (I wish!). I have been around a while and like putting together sets. One small set I want to complete is the half eagle type set so I needed a nice Indian half eagle. There really wasn't a whole more to it than that.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Drop in price because of decreased "investor" demand? We know the supply is not large for coins that look as good as the OP piece. PCGS price guides lists 1911 $5 at $20,000 in 65. So, yes, the buyer got a nice $5 Indian for a price not out of line with retail market reality. Big jump in $ to MS66 (to $38,500) according to PCGS guide. But I do think there is plenty of confusion out there what green bean means. In my view, green bean means solid for the grade, no more, no less. Gold bean is another matter. If the OP piece had a gold bean, then no way it would have suffered a 20% drop in 6 months time.
Actually, I misspoke a bit when talking about acquisition of one $20,000 coin vs. ten $2,000 coins. Acquiring just ONE $2,000 coin would be a stretch for me.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
Why would there be a drop in price, due to collector demand in that short time period? And a coin with a gold CAC sticker can sell for less than it did in a previous appearance from six months earlier, just like any other coin.
Factors to consider in this and other scenarios are whether the coin brought a really strong price the first time, the auction venue(s), the presence or absence of one or two key bidders, the perception of whether the coin is “fresh”, the appearance of another example and so on.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sending coins out for "slabs" and CACs can affect the timing. How many people would want to have their coins auctioned on Super Bowl Sunday or any other holiday such as Christmas or New Years?
I find that very true that their photos are lousy. I don’t know how or why people spend big money on such images, that GC claims are professionally photographed. I like DLRC photos much better and of superior quality