1st quarter 2022 GDP is reported to have fallen by 1.4%. Huge trade deficit blamed, and one analyst quoted as saying "it's in the noise"? So what happens when Fed balance sheet reduction actually starts and rates are raised? That of course will boost the dollar, worsening trade deficit. Start of recession? Maybe, if the next QE isn't ushered in, lol.
Some people are predicting a deflationary recession or depression. Recent actuarial data from insurance companies across the board suggests a very significant 40% rise in mortality of non-covid related deaths between the ages bracket of 18 and 59.
Hmmmmmmm.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Some people are predicting a deflationary recession or depression. Recent actuarial data from insurance companies across the board suggests a very significant 40% rise in mortality of non-covid related deaths between the ages bracket of 18 and 59.
However, we should expect mortality rates to increase as we begin obesity at a much younger age and 20 years ago.
(Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
The insurance companies are reporting a 40% increase in non-covid related deaths in a single year. A large increase would be on the order of 3 or 4 percent.
In Europe, at least one insurance company has decided that if you are vaccinated, you are consenting to suicide and they are not paying out on life insurance policies if you've been vaxxed. I don't know if more than one company is doing it and I can't cite a direct source, but you can research it if you want.
However, in the US, the death rate data is across the board, so it should be easier for you to document it from multiple sources if you so desire. Gov.com is still heavily promoting the shots, so figure that one out.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@cohodk said:
Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
In younger people, homicide, suicide, drug overdose, all up significantly. All "non-covid", and would need to be addressed in whatever statistics. I am not convinced of any benefits in vaccine for children and younger adults, but I personally don't know any young people that have died in the past two years that weren't related to one if the above causes.
@cohodk said:
Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
In younger people, homicide, suicide, drug overdose, all up significantly. All "non-covid", and would need to be addressed in whatever statistics. I am not convinced of any benefits in vaccine for children and younger adults, but I personally don't know any young people that have died in the past two years that weren't related to one if the above causes.
Add in car accidents and I think you have a pretty good list. More people under the age of 40 have died from drug overdoses during the pandemic than c0vid by a wide margin. It's interesting how every household hasn't been sent a shipment of Narcan...
Automobile related deaths during pandemic was a mixed bag...... Higher rate of death on a per mile driven basis, but fewer drivers on the roads. The rate/mile went up because law enforcement wasn't enforcing and peeps that were driving drove faster and more likely to be under influence.
@jmski52 said: However, we should expect mortality rates to increase as we begin obesity at a much younger age and 20 years ago.
(Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
The insurance companies are reporting a 40% increase in non-covid related deaths in a single year. A large increase would be on the order of 3 or 4 percent.
In Europe, at least one insurance company has decided that if you are vaccinated, you are consenting to suicide and they are not paying out on life insurance policies if you've been vaxxed. I don't know if more than one company is doing it and I can't cite a direct source, but you can research it if you want.
However, in the US, the death rate data is across the board, so it should be easier for you to document it from multiple sources if you so desire. Gov.com is still heavily promoting the shots, so figure that one out.
Treasury I-Bonds now paying 9.62%. If you haven't maxed out your limit for the year already... might want to get some more. 'Course rates may increase even more 6 months from now; and of course purchasers must trust that the US will be financially able to cash them for you when you want to cash them in...
Any doubters out there yet whether we have an inflation problem or not? Or transitory? Looks like we have probably hit double digit inflation rates.
@D808LF said:
Paid $6.35 for a pineapple. Up $2+ from a couple of years ago.
$1.69 for pineapple over here....crazy world......Although we do have $10 seedless watermelons lol. Looks more like supply chain issue to me than inflation but whatever. Bye Hi. LuLz!
@D808LF said:
Paid $6.35 for a pineapple. Up $2+ from a couple of years ago.
$1.69 for pineapple over here....crazy world......Although we do have $10 seedless watermelons lol. Looks more like supply chain issue to me than inflation but whatever. Bye Hi. LuLz!
A $1.69! That's what I should be paying here in Hawaii.
@D808LF said:
Paid $6.35 for a pineapple. Up $2+ from a couple of years ago.
$1.69 for pineapple over here....crazy world......Although we do have $10 seedless watermelons lol. Looks more like supply chain issue to me than inflation but whatever. Bye Hi. LuLz!
A $1.69! That's what I should be paying here in Hawaii.
Yeah PA, I think ours come mostly from Costa Rica. I was stationed in Hawaii back in the early 90's. Everything was very expensive there back then, so I am not at all surprised.
"we have entered the terminal phase of the "bullwhip effect", where plunging inventory-to-sales ratios reverse violently higher, where supply chains unclog suddenly and rapidly amid a sudden chill in the economy, and where prices for so-called "core" goods collapse almost overnight, even as non-core prices (food and energy) explode even higher."
I'm interested to see what is going to happen with the months long lockdowns in China. They originally said that they were planning on reopening the lock-downed parts of the country June 1, so that will be interesting. I think @derryb point of large retailers being weighed down by inventory is partially due to trying to hedge against more Chinese lockdowns, lag times on shipping, increased raw materials and future orders being fulfilled.
From what I've heard and read recently, food costs are going to continue their upward trend with many countries banning exports of grains and widespread flooding in India and other large population countries. Next few months will be interesting for sure.
For those of us who "prep", I'm now seeing the financial benefit of having a deep pantry and being able to stock up while sales are going on verse having to be at the mercy of "everyday" grocery store prices.
Because the Federal Reserve is promising to solve the inflation problem and most everyone believes them. The conventional wisdom is that you don’t need to buy gold and silver to hedge against future inflation because there won’t be any. The FED is on the job. Powell & Company will make it go away. They have the tools to get inflation back to 2%. Investors still have confidence in the FED.
All of that inflation that started out in financial assets has now permanently migrated into consumer goods. So, this is not a temporary situation. This is permanent. Inflation is going to get much, much worse. But the economy is going to get weaker. It’s stagflation.
When the markets come to terms with this reality, everybody will come rushing into gold and silver. There has ever been a better opportunity to be a contrarian.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
In this case it's retaliatory sanctions also known as "blowback" from the not well thought out implementation of a dumb idea.
Energy is the hardest hit area of sanctions and as we all know, the entire world economy revolves around energy. Next most affected are commodities and as with energy, the world economy depends on commodities. Throw in inflation and rising interest rates, the outlook for the world economy is not very good.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
In this case it's retaliatory sanctions also known as "blowback" from the not well thought out implementation of a dumb idea.
Energy is the hardest hit area of sanctions and as we all know, the entire world economy revolves around energy. Next most affected are commodities and as with energy, the world economy depends on commodities. Throw in inflation and rising interest rates, the outlook for the world economy is not very good.
Retaliatory sanctions from who?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
In this case it's retaliatory sanctions also known as "blowback" from the not well thought out implementation of a dumb idea.
Energy is the hardest hit area of sanctions and as we all know, the entire world economy revolves around energy. Next most affected are commodities and as with energy, the world economy depends on commodities. Throw in inflation and rising interest rates, the outlook for the world economy is not very good.
Retaliatory sanctions from who?
Read the link and then ask questions if you can't grasp what sanctions are costing everyone.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Sanctions? I'm sitting on top of prime Marcellus Shale here in the Commonwealth. Untapped and willing to sign a lease to tap my acreage tomorrow. No takers due to multiple issues; political, moral and financial. Sanctions certainly aren't one of them. The world could be flooded with Nat gas if the masters so chose to do so. RGDS!
Sanctions? I'm sitting on top of prime Marcellus Shale here in the Commonwealth. Untapped and willing to sign a lease to tap my acreage tomorrow. No takers due to multiple issues; political, moral and financial. Sanctions certainly aren't one of them. The world could be flooded with Nat gas if the masters so chose to do so. RGDS!
Yup, but that does not negate the fact that sanctions have driven up the price of available natural gas. Think of your gas in the ground as a "futures contract" and the gas that is actually available as the "physical" stuff. LOL
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
@blitzdude said:
Sanctions? I'm sitting on top of prime Marcellus Shale here in the Commonwealth. Untapped and willing to sign a lease to tap my acreage tomorrow. No takers due to multiple issues; political, moral and financial. Sanctions certainly aren't one of them. The world could be flooded with Nat gas if the masters so chose to do so. RGDS!
Wow.... CPI rose 8.6% in May. Highest since 1981. No surprise to anyone who has to fill their gas tanks, fuel oil (increased over 100% this last year) or does the food shopping. Anyone starting to feel the pinch?
I suppose the next government magic bullet will be to enact 'price controls'. But that will be a disaster since that only results in shortages. I remember well the gas lines stretching around the block in the 1970's with limits on purchases, being able to purchase gas on odd or even numbered days, more empty shelves, etc. And gas stations not even having fuel to sell.
Looks like it is time for the grocery stores to bring back the 'generic' aisle... remember the aisle filled with black and white generic products? some was worth purchasing, but alot was poor quality....
Out of curiosity, are ammunition shortages still occurring? Price increases? Just curious, since it has been a few years since I purchased ammo for small game hunting years ago...
In the recent Covid era two year period, stimulus (government sponsored "free money") created a 38% increase in the US money supply. In 2020 alone, the FED created over $6 trillion from thin air and injected it directly into the economy through covid relief checks and PPP loans. This is what caused inflation recent inflation. As the chart shows Covid induced inflation (with a whole lotta help from from crazy money printing over the past 14 years) actually began to drop just as the sanctions began. With sanctions in place and growing, inflation started its current parabolic increase. I think we can all agree that any inflation induced by Covid money printing has leveled off yet inflation is suddenly on fire. Covid is a nothing burger to inflation compared to impact of sanctions.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Comments
supply chain disruptions
1st quarter 2022 GDP is reported to have fallen by 1.4%. Huge trade deficit blamed, and one analyst quoted as saying "it's in the noise"? So what happens when Fed balance sheet reduction actually starts and rates are raised? That of course will boost the dollar, worsening trade deficit. Start of recession? Maybe, if the next QE isn't ushered in, lol.
QE is in the cards, FED just doesn't realize it yet.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Oops! Our Bad! IMF Director Admits “We Printed too Much Money”
Guess they should have read this forum before making money printing decisions. lol
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Just print some more. Carry on and remember doomy the sun will quite probably come up tomorrow.
RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Some people are predicting a deflationary recession or depression. Recent actuarial data from insurance companies across the board suggests a very significant 40% rise in mortality of non-covid related deaths between the ages bracket of 18 and 59.
Hmmmmmmm.
I knew it would happen.
Can you share a link for this data?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's being reported in several interviews on USAWatchdog.com, but of course you would have to watch the interviews.
I knew it would happen.
Ill take a peak. The beauty of a video is there are no lines to read between.
Haha.
However, we should expect mortality rates to increase as we begin obesity at a much younger age and 20 years ago.
Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the sugar cabal.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
However, we should expect mortality rates to increase as we begin obesity at a much younger age and 20 years ago.
(Or we could blame some other nefarious source.
The insurance companies are reporting a 40% increase in non-covid related deaths in a single year. A large increase would be on the order of 3 or 4 percent.
In Europe, at least one insurance company has decided that if you are vaccinated, you are consenting to suicide and they are not paying out on life insurance policies if you've been vaxxed. I don't know if more than one company is doing it and I can't cite a direct source, but you can research it if you want.
However, in the US, the death rate data is across the board, so it should be easier for you to document it from multiple sources if you so desire. Gov.com is still heavily promoting the shots, so figure that one out.
I knew it would happen.
In younger people, homicide, suicide, drug overdose, all up significantly. All "non-covid", and would need to be addressed in whatever statistics. I am not convinced of any benefits in vaccine for children and younger adults, but I personally don't know any young people that have died in the past two years that weren't related to one if the above causes.
Add in car accidents and I think you have a pretty good list. More people under the age of 40 have died from drug overdoses during the pandemic than c0vid by a wide margin. It's interesting how every household hasn't been sent a shipment of Narcan...
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm (overdose death info)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm (c0vid death info)
Automobile related deaths during pandemic was a mixed bag...... Higher rate of death on a per mile driven basis, but fewer drivers on the roads. The rate/mile went up because law enforcement wasn't enforcing and peeps that were driving drove faster and more likely to be under influence.
!
Treasury I-Bonds now paying 9.62%. If you haven't maxed out your limit for the year already... might want to get some more. 'Course rates may increase even more 6 months from now; and of course purchasers must trust that the US will be financially able to cash them for you when you want to cash them in...
Any doubters out there yet whether we have an inflation problem or not? Or transitory? Looks like we have probably hit double digit inflation rates.
Definitely time to be looking for areas to put one's cash that will help protect purchasing power.
Paid $6.35 for a pineapple. Up $2+ from a couple of years ago.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
$1.69 for pineapple over here....crazy world......Although we do have $10 seedless watermelons lol. Looks more like supply chain issue to me than inflation but whatever. Bye Hi. LuLz!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
A $1.69! That's what I should be paying here in Hawaii.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
Yeah PA, I think ours come mostly from Costa Rica. I was stationed in Hawaii back in the early 90's. Everything was very expensive there back then, so I am not at all surprised.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
It's a good thing CPI came in so low (0.3% in April). Now the Fed can end its rate hike cycle in June. Great news for real estate and stonks.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
"If your don't own gold you know neither history nor economics." - Ray Dailo
Did Ray actually say “if your don’t “ ?
Swelling inventory of non-commodity retail goods setting up for a widespread liquidation of retail prices.
"we have entered the terminal phase of the "bullwhip effect", where plunging inventory-to-sales ratios reverse violently higher, where supply chains unclog suddenly and rapidly amid a sudden chill in the economy, and where prices for so-called "core" goods collapse almost overnight, even as non-core prices (food and energy) explode even higher."
Bloated inventories hit Walmart, Target and other retailers’ profits, trucking demand
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
I'm interested to see what is going to happen with the months long lockdowns in China. They originally said that they were planning on reopening the lock-downed parts of the country June 1, so that will be interesting. I think @derryb point of large retailers being weighed down by inventory is partially due to trying to hedge against more Chinese lockdowns, lag times on shipping, increased raw materials and future orders being fulfilled.
From what I've heard and read recently, food costs are going to continue their upward trend with many countries banning exports of grains and widespread flooding in India and other large population countries. Next few months will be interesting for sure.
For those of us who "prep", I'm now seeing the financial benefit of having a deep pantry and being able to stock up while sales are going on verse having to be at the mercy of "everyday" grocery store prices.
The cows must have got a raise. I gave up butter for the most part....a couple of years ago but I usually check the price.
Walmart went from $3.50 to almost $5./ Lb overnight this last week or so.
I'n looking at URA as one inflation hedge.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
@derryb WEAT is another one.
Why gold and silver are not responding to inflation. (Why I have increased my PM purchasing)
Because the Federal Reserve is promising to solve the inflation problem and most everyone believes them. The conventional wisdom is that you don’t need to buy gold and silver to hedge against future inflation because there won’t be any. The FED is on the job. Powell & Company will make it go away. They have the tools to get inflation back to 2%. Investors still have confidence in the FED.
All of that inflation that started out in financial assets has now permanently migrated into consumer goods. So, this is not a temporary situation. This is permanent. Inflation is going to get much, much worse. But the economy is going to get weaker. It’s stagflation.
When the markets come to terms with this reality, everybody will come rushing into gold and silver. There has ever been a better opportunity to be a contrarian.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
"The culprit behind skyrocketing fertilizer and food costs is natural gas, used as a raw material to produce ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilizers, which account for most of the world’s fertilizer consumption. Typically 60-80% of production costs are natural gas."
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
And who's the culprit behind skyrocketing cost for natural gas?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Poorly thought out sanctions.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
sanctions??
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Yes, sanctions.
In this case it's retaliatory sanctions also known as "blowback" from the not well thought out implementation of a dumb idea.
Energy is the hardest hit area of sanctions and as we all know, the entire world economy revolves around energy. Next most affected are commodities and as with energy, the world economy depends on commodities. Throw in inflation and rising interest rates, the outlook for the world economy is not very good.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Retaliatory sanctions from who?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Read the link and then ask questions if you can't grasp what sanctions are costing everyone.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Sanctions? I'm sitting on top of prime Marcellus Shale here in the Commonwealth. Untapped and willing to sign a lease to tap my acreage tomorrow. No takers due to multiple issues; political, moral and financial. Sanctions certainly aren't one of them. The world could be flooded with Nat gas if the masters so chose to do so. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yup, but that does not negate the fact that sanctions have driven up the price of available natural gas. Think of your gas in the ground as a "futures contract" and the gas that is actually available as the "physical" stuff. LOL
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Counter-party risk?
5 lbs of potatoes was nearly $6 at the Walmart today... used to be under $4.
Successful BST Transactions: erwindoc, VTchaser, moursund, robkool, RelicKING, Herb_T, Meltdown, ElmerFusterpuck
It must be sanctions! 😂 🤣
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Yep, you're learning.
Basic math: Sanctions = less fertilizer = less crop production = higher food prices.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
A sure sign your central bank has printed too much money.
Sign in Zimbabawe bathroom:
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Wow.... CPI rose 8.6% in May. Highest since 1981. No surprise to anyone who has to fill their gas tanks, fuel oil (increased over 100% this last year) or does the food shopping. Anyone starting to feel the pinch?
I suppose the next government magic bullet will be to enact 'price controls'. But that will be a disaster since that only results in shortages. I remember well the gas lines stretching around the block in the 1970's with limits on purchases, being able to purchase gas on odd or even numbered days, more empty shelves, etc. And gas stations not even having fuel to sell.
Looks like it is time for the grocery stores to bring back the 'generic' aisle... remember the aisle filled with black and white generic products? some was worth purchasing, but alot was poor quality....
But I guess the 'good' news is the government is getting record taxes. Probably from the taxes from the high gasoline prices.
Out of curiosity, are ammunition shortages still occurring? Price increases? Just curious, since it has been a few years since I purchased ammo for small game hunting years ago...
It must be the sanctions.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
In the recent Covid era two year period, stimulus (government sponsored "free money") created a 38% increase in the US money supply. In 2020 alone, the FED created over $6 trillion from thin air and injected it directly into the economy through covid relief checks and PPP loans. This is what caused inflation recent inflation. As the chart shows Covid induced inflation (with a whole lotta help from from crazy money printing over the past 14 years) actually began to drop just as the sanctions began. With sanctions in place and growing, inflation started its current parabolic increase. I think we can all agree that any inflation induced by Covid money printing has leveled off yet inflation is suddenly on fire. Covid is a nothing burger to inflation compared to impact of sanctions.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan