Home Precious Metals

China Evergrande Defaults on Its Debt - Will this effect Precious Metals and US Economy?

«1

Comments

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Take a look at today's PM slide...that should answer your question, unless you feel that the price for PM's will drop further. ;)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The money creation curve has gone vertical.

    There's a good interview with Rob Kirby on USAWatchdog.com that might give you some insight.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭

    been defaulting for the past month. any affect on PMs priced in earlier.

    This default will have serious ramifications to the world wide economic standing once all parties understand the full scope of it.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    The money creation curve has gone vertical.

    Yup. Most assets hitting new highs every day.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Most assets hitting new highs every day.

    At the risk of repeating myself, there's a good interview with Rob Kirby on USAWatchdog.com that might give you some insight.

    He makes some interesting observations about cryptos in relation to the vertical line on the money creation curve and trade settlement in relation to the dollar.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Evergrande is China's "too big to fail" moment. Their entire economy is linked to real estate so I'm not worried.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    China will be just fine. They can print renminbis just as fast as we can print dollars. Nobody is going to fail. Onward and upwards!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Most assets hitting new highs every day.

    At the risk of repeating myself, there's a good interview with Rob Kirby on USAWatchdog.com that might give you some insight.

    He makes some interesting observations about cryptos in relation to the vertical line on the money creation curve and trade settlement in relation to the dollar.

    I aint talking about video game money.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Half of all the Dollars "created" have been made in the past year and a half.

    email: [email protected]

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I aint talking about video game money.

    You didn't watch the interview, did you? :)

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 10, 2021 5:02AM

    @jmski52 said:
    I aint talking about video game money.

    You didn't watch the interview, did you? :)

    I did. And while it is difficult to get past his obvious narrative filled with false facts, misinterpretation, poor economic analysis, and political miasma, his view has little bearing on my comment.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • So say some large US bank like, gee I dunno, Bank of America, invested heavily in Evergrande. Could that make the real estate bubble pop here? I suppose that would be good for gold but I just sold my "fixer-upper" house in Colorado to be on the safe side. I don't want to get stuck with that POS if the market tanks. :)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 10, 2021 7:55AM

    I aint talking about video game money.

    $54 trillion in annual trade settlement is video game money to you? Is that what you ain't talking about?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The economic crash has to start somewhere... sometime.... Cheers, RickO

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, maybe a $trillion ain't as much as it used to be. As Kirby notes, we really ARE on the vertical slope of money creation right now, and other countries really ARE transacting in other mediums of exchange, and those dollars really ARE coming back to our shores, and China really IS going boinkers in issuing beaucoup more currency of their own in order to defuse their own debt bomb. The race to the bottom (with respect to money creation) really IS going on in earnest.

    But hey, you can't make an omelette unless you break a few eggs, even if it ruins millions of lifetime savers and pensioners, eh? The bankers and their privately-held Fed don't care, and neither do the politicians. It's all gravy to them.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 10, 2021 9:18PM

    @jmski52 said:
    I aint talking about video game money.

    $54 trillion in annual trade settlement is video game money to you? Is that what you ain't talking about?

    That number means nothing. If you and I trade a $100 bill between us 1000 times a day then we have a $36 million annual trade settlement. And what happened? Nothing.

    And my original comment had nothing to do with cryptos....just that most assets are hitting new highs. And for the record, I do not consider cryptos to be assets.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 10, 2021 8:43AM

    @jmski52 said:
    Well, maybe a $trillion ain't as much as it used to be. As Kirby notes, we really ARE on the vertical slope of money creation right now, and other countries really ARE transacting in other mediums of exchange, and those dollars really ARE coming back to our shores, and China really IS going boinkers in issuing beaucoup more currency of their own in order to defuse their own debt bomb. The race to the bottom (with respect to money creation) really IS going on in earnest.

    But hey, you can't make an omelette unless you break a few eggs, even if it ruins millions of lifetime savers and pensioners, eh? The bankers and their privately-held Fed don't care, and neither do the politicians. It's all gravy to them.

    Lots of "is"and "are" in your comment that you may construe as fact, yet are merely assumptions based on misinformation and cognitive biases.

    Most savers that i know have increased their "savings" by 20-50% over the last few years.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 11, 2021 7:20AM

    @ricko said:
    The economic crash has to start somewhere... sometime.... Cheers, RickO

    started in 08. It's hiding behind the FED curtain.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Most savers that i know have increased their "savings" by 20-50% over the last few years.

    Only by doubling down. Not by earnings growth.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 11, 2021 7:18AM

    @cohodk said:
    And for the record, I do not consider cryptos to be assets.

    Yet a fiat currency is an asset? lol

    Anything that can be converted to a fiat currency is an asset.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    And for the record, I do not consider cryptos to be assets.

    Yet a fiat currency is an asset? lol

    Anything that can be converted to a fiat currency is an asset.

    Coho
    A short story re assets. I went to the most recent Long Beach with my neighbor. About 10 yrs ago (+/-) he and his wife bought 250 bitcoin for $500ea. They are valued north of $10M.
    He can cash out but doesn't want to.
    You mean that, you wouldn't consider that an asset? It's almost as liquid as cash, gold or silver. More than rodium. Way more liquid than real estate. If the world central banks keep printing, he's in good shape.

    If you had them, you mean to tell me you wouldn't consider it an asset?

    Have a nice day
  • Not putting the official “default” label on Evergrande allows the company to restructure its debt at a lower cost, she said.

    See how easy that was to fix? They're not officially in default until the officials officially declare them to be in default. It's all perfectly legal. :dizzy:

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Most savers that i know have increased their "savings" by 20-50% over the last few years.

    Only by doubling down. Not by earnings growth.

    Earnings growth has been 20-50% as well.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 12, 2021 7:08AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    And for the record, I do not consider cryptos to be assets.

    Yet a fiat currency is an asset? lol

    Anything that can be converted to a fiat currency is an asset.

    Yup, even horsesxxt, or a promise, or an assassination.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @streeter said:
    If you had them, you mean to tell me you wouldn't consider it an asset?

    You can if you wish, but i do not.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 12, 2021 12:48PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Most savers that i know have increased their "savings" by 20-50% over the last few years.

    Only by doubling down. Not by earnings growth.

    Earnings growth has been 20-50% as well.

    you are referring to investments in lieu of a <1% savings account.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Most savers that i know have increased their "savings" by 20-50% over the last few years.

    Only by doubling down. Not by earnings growth.

    Earnings growth has been 20-50% as well.

    you are referring to investments in lieu of a <1% savings account.

    What is jmski referring to?

    Isnt savings all the money you didnt spend? If one decides to put it in a pillow, gold, real estate, equities, etc, its still savings.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What is jmski referring to?

    Savings is money that you didn't spend so that you can (theoretically) enjoy some future spending. I was mainly referencing things like social security, which is somewhat critical to the average retiree or any financial contracts or fixed income streams denominated in dollars.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    What is jmski referring to?

    Savings is money that you didn't spend so that you can (theoretically) enjoy some future spending. I was mainly referencing things like social security, which is somewhat critical to the average retiree or any financial contracts or fixed income streams denominated in dollars.

    Social security is not savings.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I didn’t read it as it is

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • Hang Seng down 2% but gold up over $1800 and holding onto that level. All the other metals are tanking in Hong Kong. Explain that? I'm pretty sure all those Chinese people who lost money on real estate won't be spending wads of cash on jewelry. Spock would have a stroke trying to figure gold out... people just buy it when they get scared I guess. It's a hedge against fear and uncertainty. Inflation, eh, not so much.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Social security is not savings.

    It may as well be counted as such since it derives from past earnings.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 20, 2022 6:55PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Social security is not savings.

    It may as well be counted as such since it derives from past earnings.

    It's monthly income. It disappears next month if you die this month. It's savings in the sense that you are getting a return on what you deposited (Ponzi Alert - actually you are getting someone else's deposits) but it is not an asset that remains a part of your estate.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Investors will be wiped out. Buildings are still there though. BTW China cut its interest rates today. FXI jumped up.

    email: [email protected]

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yeah but it seems token because of the size

    I feel like they are between a rock and a hard spot

    Real estate is sinking them and lowering rates is the gas pedal for the economy. However lower rates will just spur more real estate fever. Buy the dip… and with lower rates! (??)

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • thefinnthefinn Posts: 2,652 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:
    China will be just fine. They can print renminbis just as fast as we can print dollars. Nobody is going to fail. Onward and upwards!

    Except that reminbis can only be used in China. China doesn't have an internationally tradeable currency.

    thefinn
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    China has the off-shore yuan

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,033 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 20, 2022 7:05PM

    Question remains "will China do a better job of responding to it's real estate crisis than did the US?" Appears not as China is reducing interest rates as a response. Twelve years later and the US economy continues to suffer from ineffective/misdirected central bank policy. Living proof that PM prices are controlled - if not, such policy in a free market would have driven prices to the moon.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    HK court orders China Evergrande to liquidate with debts of $300 bln

    https://www.reuters.com/business/embattled-china-evergrande-back-court-liquidation-hearing-2024-01-28/

    no global implosions
    no us implosions

    Evergrande cited a Deloitte analysis during a Hong Kong court hearing in July that estimated a recovery rate of 3.4% if the developer were liquidated. After Evergrande said in September its flagship unit and its chairman Hui Ka Yan were being investigated by the authorities for unspecified crimes, creditors now expect a recovery rate of less than 3%.

    ouch

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    there are other dominos teetering

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • Looks like China is in the early stages of a financial crisis.

    Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This thread started over 2 years ago, so has the default had an impact on PMs or the US economy?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    This thread started over 2 years ago, so has the default had an impact on PMs or the US economy?

    Appears to be another nothingburger....at least up to this point. :smiley: RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,760 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    This thread started over 2 years ago, so has the default had an impact on PMs or the US economy?

    Not sure , but I bought and sold more silver and gold in the past two years than the previous 13 years combined. Paranoia do that ? Because I am no preacher of doom & gloom.
    Reminds me of a sign I read in a shoe repair ( cobbler) shop.
    " Time wounds all heels".

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Question remains "will China do a better job of responding to it's real estate crisis than did the US?" Appears not as China is reducing interest rates as a response. Twelve years later and the US economy continues to suffer from ineffective/misdirected central bank policy. Living proof that PM prices are controlled - if not, such policy in a free market would have driven prices to the moon.

    The U.S. economy is fine. The U.S. economy is not suffering nor is it "contuing to suffer."

    You keep making excuses for your own flawed analyses. The "living proof" that PM prices are controlled is that you think gold should be at $5,000 and silver at $100 an ounce.

    It's easier for you to say the game is rigged rather than you don't know how to play the game. :D I don't mean to be harsh, but I really get tired of hearing that from people who think they are right and the markets are wrong.

    PM prices haven't been controlled since 1971. If governments could "control" prices, then BitCoin would be < $1,000.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't mean to be harsh, but I really get tired of hearing that from people who think they are right and the markets are wrong.

    Markets represent the collective opinion and decision making of millions are people. So by saying the markets are wrong, they are in effect saying they are smarter than everyone.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

Sign In or Register to comment.