Aggressive inflation was supposed to make silver skyrocket...

CopperWire

In the last 6 months prices for everyday goods have inflated at a rapid pace. I was paying $2.10/gallon for fuel in April and now I am over 4.09.

I feel like this is the exact situation that silverbugs have been talking about for decades. So why isn't my silver also rising in value?

jessewvu

The whole thing’s rigged!!! Come on, man!

coinbuf

The old farts are too busy with crypto to worry about silver.

ctf_error_coins

Gas doubled

Productivity quadrupled

Inflation aint real IMO even tho its on all the news stations 24/7 right now.

We are coming out of a black swan event. Of course there will be price fluctuations.

philographer

Many times precious metals are sold to those who are fearful. It would have been better to invest in Exxon in anticipation of increased demand.

jmlanzaf

The metal bugs spin everything as an increase in metal prices.

A crash in metals is as likely as an increase IMHO

CopperWire

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

Productivity quadrupled

can you expand on the productivity bit, how is that measured exactly?

jmlanzaf

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Gas doubled

Productivity quadrupled

Inflation aint real IMO even tho its on all the news stations 24/7 right now.

We are coming out of a black swan event. Of course there will be price fluctuations.

Could we have a source for that (fake) quadrupling of productivity in the last 12 months?

ctf_error_coins

I'm just effing with ya all. I have no idea nor you what the productivity level was during this time period.

All I know his that if you have a home office, then the price of gas does not really matter. The time spent not commuting can be applied to productivity.

Many of the major corporations say productivity went up when their employees worked from home.

derryb

PM prices reflect confidence in the currency and those that control it. High enough inflation long enough will erode all confidence. Just ask the Zimbabaweans. They are currently paying 9,159 of their dollars for an ounce of silver.

Silver, like gold, is dollar insurance.

moursund

Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

BillJones

Having lived and worked in the late 1970s, we have not seen the full effects of inflation yet. I was getting 15 to 16 percent interest from a money market account and still falling behind.

Gold has performed better than silver. It was up to $1,850 an ounce recently.

jmlanzaf

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

derryb

@jmlanzaf said:

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

but it is a good place to temporarily park un-needed cash. This parking lot hedge protects one from dollar destruction. Dollars held in the form of PMs maintain their purchasing power, while the currency itself continues its decline.

jmlanzaf

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

but it is a good place to temporarily park un-needed cash. This parking lot hedge protects one from dollar destruction. Dollars held in the form of PMs maintain their purchasing power, while the currency itself continues its decline.

Demonstrably untrue. PMs also go down. Horrible place for short term parking.

MsMorrisine

i hope this thread is moved to the precious metals forum instead of being closed

derryb

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

but it is a good place to temporarily park un-needed cash. This parking lot hedge protects one from dollar destruction. Dollars held in the form of PMs maintain their purchasing power, while the currency itself continues its decline.

Demonstrably untrue. PMs also go down. Horrible place for short term parking.

PMs go down when the dollar goes up. In the longer term the dollar is historically a dying dog.

I guess you don't see the future of the dollar in the right light. Go ahead convert your PMs to dollars tomorrow and get back with me in a year. The gold/silver I have held in that year, when converted back to dollars, will have the same purchasing power of today's dollar while your year-old dollars will buy much less than they can today.

In just the past 30 days of growing inflation, gold has provided the dollar insurance that it always does:

moursund

@jmlanzaf said:

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

"I buy gold as a hedge against inflation" maybe means "I buy gold because I like to, and I use the excuse that it's a hedge against inflation"

jmlanzaf

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@moursund said:
Even if metals increased as a response to inflation, you would have to sell in order to benefit, right? Sell precious metals for inflated dollars... I've always had some questions about how an individual would 'hedge' against inflation. If you had a big enough hedge to make a difference, you are most likely dragging down your investments.

You could use derivatives.

But, you are correct, you can only hedge a small portion of your assets. So, it really isn't an efficient hedge.

but it is a good place to temporarily park un-needed cash. This parking lot hedge protects one from dollar destruction. Dollars held in the form of PMs maintain their purchasing power, while the currency itself continues its decline.

Demonstrably untrue. PMs also go down. Horrible place for short term parking.

PMs go down when the dollar goes up. In the longer term the dollar historically weakens. I guess you don't see the future of the dollar in the right light. Go ahead convert your PMs to dollars tomorrow and get back with me in a year.

In just the past 30 days of growing inflation, gold has provided the dollar insurance that it always does:

Again, short term parking is fraught with peril. If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

If you'd like to pay me for every 3 or 5 year chart that shows a good decline, I'll get to 30,000 posts by christmas.

jessewvu

I will tell you guys in 1 year what you should have invested in today. Then I'll say "I told you so"

jmlanzaf

@jessewvu said:
I will tell you guys in 1 year what you should have invested in today. Then I'll say "I told you so"

The answer won't be 2021 Morgan dollars. Lol

jmlanzaf

https://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

djm

@BillJones said:
Having lived and worked in the late 1970s, we have not seen the full effects of inflation yet. I was getting 15 to 16 percent interest from a money market account and still falling behind.

Gold has performed better than silver. It was up to $1,850 an ounce recently.

I too lived and worked in the late 1970's and early 1980's. I was getting about the same interest rates but I was also getting 19% pay raises every six months. This was a time when you could get a higher paying job with no more than 3 phone calls. The companies wanted to retain employees back then, not like today when companies think employees are interchange parts.

ctf_error_coins

@jmlanzaf said:
https://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

LOL

jmlanzaf

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

@jmlanzaf said:
https://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

LOL

Point was simply that it's "value" has never been constant or even moving in one direction.

ctf_error_coins

@jmlanzaf said:

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

@jmlanzaf said:
https://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

LOL

Point was simply that it's "value" has never been constant or even moving in one direction.

point is if inflation was a thing, wouldn't gold be "a little" higher, LOL you chart proves what I have been saying.

derryb

@jmlanzaf said:

If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

There were only five days in 2011 when gold was priced higher than it is today. There were over 30 days it could have been purchased under $1400 (sitting at $1865 today) and its highest price in the first six months of 2011 was $313 less than it is today.

sedulous

@CopperWire said:
In the last 6 months prices for everyday goods have inflated at a rapid pace. I was paying $2.10/gallon for fuel in April and now I am over 4.09.

I feel like this is the exact situation that silverbugs have been talking about for decades. So why isn't my silver also rising in value?

Patience. Keep watching and see what happens. Pre-maturely concerned.

jmlanzaf

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

@jmlanzaf said:
https://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

LOL

Point was simply that it's "value" has never been constant or even moving in one direction.

point is if inflation was a thing, wouldn't gold be "a little" higher, LOL you chart proves what I have been saying.

Actually, no. That chart is adjusting for inflation using the same numbers that you consider to be inaccurate.

jmlanzaf

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

There were only five days in 2011 when gold was priced higher than it is today. There were over 30 days it could have been purchased under $1400 (sitting at $1865 today) and its highest price in the first six months of 2011 was $313 less than it is today.

See the chart I posted.

moursund

@djm said:

@BillJones said:
Having lived and worked in the late 1970s, we have not seen the full effects of inflation yet. I was getting 15 to 16 percent interest from a money market account and still falling behind.

Gold has performed better than silver. It was up to $1,850 an ounce recently.

I too lived and worked in the late 1970's and early 1980's. I was getting about the same interest rates but I was also getting 19% pay raises every six months. This was a time when you could get a higher paying job with no more than 3 phone calls. The companies wanted to retain employees back then, not like today when companies think employees are interchange parts.

I've been very fortunate, working for the same employer (HP) from 1989 to present. This seems practically impossible in today's world. I tell my kids that the best investment advice is to invest regularly and aggressively in US equities over thirty or forty years.

Weiss

If you're relying on physical silver to make you rich, I've got some bad news for you:
It's not going to happen. Ever.
Silver is great as a hedge, or for asset diversification, as insurance for a rainy day for yourself or hard times for the nation or the world. It's an important piece of a well balanced portfolio.
But silver doesn't pay dividends or interest. There aren't long term capital gains earned per share to have reinvested. Silver has no competitor looking to acquire assets in order to improve market share.
You can't make improvements to silver so that you can raise its rent or sell it to a developer.
Silver has significant premiums, often not returned when you exit your position.
Silver is heavy and there are myriad issues with its storage.

Edited to confirm from personal experience:

derryb

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

There were only five days in 2011 when gold was priced higher than it is today. There were over 30 days it could have been purchased under $1400 (sitting at $1865 today) and its highest price in the first six months of 2011 was $313 less than it is today.

See the chart I posted.

I have accurate data for 2011:

jmlanzaf

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

There were only five days in 2011 when gold was priced higher than it is today. There were over 30 days it could have been purchased under $1400 (sitting at $1865 today) and its highest price in the first six months of 2011 was $313 less than it is today.

See the chart I posted.

I have accurate data

Again, you can find any number of buy/ sell dates that lose money which is why PMs are risky for short term parking. Period. Ask the data proves that. Over decades, maybe, but you said"parking money" and that is very risky if you are in a 2 or 3 year down trend.

derryb

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@derryb said:

@jmlanzaf said:

If you parked money in PMs in 2011 you are still under water.

There were only five days in 2011 when gold was priced higher than it is today. There were over 30 days it could have been purchased under $1400 (sitting at $1865 today) and its highest price in the first six months of 2011 was $313 less than it is today.

See the chart I posted.

I have accurate data

Again, you can find any number of buy/ sell dates that lose money which is why PMs are risky for short term parking. Period. Ask the data proves that. Over decades, maybe, but you said"parking money" and that is very risky if you are in a 2 or 3 year down trend.

We're not talking about any 2 or 3 year down trend in this thread. This discussion is about aggressive inflation and I stand by my comments regarding PMs during aggressive inflation.

Baley

We've been experiencing significantly abnormal fluctuations in aggregate and specific demand and supply these past 2 years.

I'll stick with expecting long term regression towards historical averages and trends, biased upwards with technological development.

Overall inflation was low for a decade. Now it's up. This is unlikely to persist forever 😏

ctf_error_coins

Deflation waiting to come ashore ...

U1chicago

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Deflation waiting to come ashore ...

The kind where there aren't enough workers to unload or trucks to carry it...

ctf_error_coins

@U1chicago said:

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Deflation waiting to come ashore ...

The kind where there aren't enough workers to unload or trucks to carry it...

It will work out itself out.

derryb

@Baley said:

Overall inflation was low for a decade. Now it's up. This is unlikely to persist forever 😏

Famous last words in Venezuela and Zimbabawe. LOL

ctf_error_coins

@derryb said:

@Baley said:

Overall inflation was low for a decade. Now it's up. This is unlikely to persist forever 😏

Famous last words in Venezuela and Zimbabawe. LOL

How many times can you post the word Zimbabawe? It gets really old.

You forgot to post the photo of the currency.

The great USA is not Zimbabawe, Geez, get a grip.

jmlanzaf

@ErrorsOnCoins said:

@derryb said:

@Baley said:

Overall inflation was low for a decade. Now it's up. This is unlikely to persist forever 😏

Famous last words in Venezuela and Zimbabawe. LOL

How many times can you post the word Zimbabawe? It gets really old.

You forgot to post the photo of the currency.

The great USA is not Zimbabawe, Geez, get a grip.

Zimbabwe is lovely this time of year.

djm

@U1chicago said:

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Deflation waiting to come ashore ...

The kind where there aren't enough workers to unload or trucks to carry it...

Could be cleared up in 30 to 60 days if the Government wanted to bust the Longshoremen's Union and bring in the National Guard to run the cranes. Trucks are leaving the docks empty.

relicsncoins

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
I'm just effing with ya all. I have no idea nor you what the productivity level was during this time period.

All I know his that if you have a home office, then the price of gas does not really matter. The time spent not commuting can be applied to productivity.

Many of the major corporations say productivity went up when their employees worked from home.

It's not just because they worked from home. When you are at an office, you have a standard start time and quit time which is usually 8 to 9 hours. Many workers are not leaving their work at a specific time at home so instead of the normal 8 to 9 hours they are working 10 to 11 or more.

MilesWaits

Ok, back to Crypto!
That’s where the true gains and steep losses are found.
I love my silver for reasons other than I love my cryptos.
Now the youngsters (the typical old farts are all here) can jump into this thread and give us the truth.

MasonG

"All I know his that if you have a home office, then the price of gas does not really matter. The time spent not commuting can be applied to productivity."

None of the products you use while you're applying the time you're not spending commuting would exist without the people who produce them commuting to where there those things are produced. The price of gas matters to them, as most people don't have manufacturing facilities in their homes.

cameonut2011

Not all of us have the luxury of working from home.

MasonG

@cameonut2011 said:
Not all of us have the luxury of working from home.

Only the totally oblivious would not recognize this fact.

cameonut2011

@MasonG said:

@cameonut2011 said:
Not all of us have the luxury of working from home.

Only the totally oblivious would not recognize this fact.

The forums can be a special place at times. 😂

cameonut2011

The OP’s question is a good one without an obvious answer.

bustie

Manipulation!