Sports Cards are in a bubble, how will it impact the coin market?

Boosibri

I think it would be difficult to argue that the sports card market is not in a sizable asset bubble. Cards with populations in the thousands are selling for six figures. Just now in the current PWCC auction, a Tom Brady rookie autograph 97/100 has a bid of $1,000,000. A Luka Doncic 2018 /5 card is over $200,000. Every year a new manufactured rarity will be made. Prices are insane!

At the same time we have seen coin values advance, albeit at a much more rational pace despite record prices.

How do you think an eventual crash in sports cards prices impact other collectibles, like coins? Will prices retreat to previous levels, fall further as the broader asset class sells off, or will the best copies continue to truck along unabated?

coinandcurrency242

When it comes to coins, there is more to them than sports cards. Sports cards are pretty much paper with a player printed on it. With coins, there are gold and silver coins and the metal value will always mean something. As well as, the coins historical value.

thefinn

No worse than the nft of a rock selling for $1.3 million.

coinkat

In some ways, the sports card market is like the coin market in that they both have several different components, including a significant value placed on condition making condition rarity the key as the whales are chasing top pops. There was a thread on the sportscard forum about auction prices for a 1962 topps Mantle in PSA 9 that sold for over $300K. But a lower grade like in a 5 or 6 would like be in a range of $700-$1800. So the bubble is at the high end... the mid range might be higher than it has been, but there seems to be more support and there is less downside. Modern sports are over valued... significantly over valued. The other part of the sportscard market are decent vintage baseball cards that are not expensive. I have picked up several raw topps and Bowman cards from the 1953-62 time frame for next to nothing... some better players that may not ever be in the HOF but had memorable careers that are lumped in with common cards. I have bought cards for various players... Elston Howard, Ed Lopat, Ken Boyer, Wally Post, Roy Sievers, Rocky Colavito, Dick Groat, Pete Runnels, Luke Easter, Hank Bauer and even some HOF players for next to nothing. What I find interesting is that the buzz is always about the high end cards of iconic players or top pop coins instead of looking for players or coins that have historic merit that can be less than than the price of a good martini at your favorite bar.

jmlanzaf

@coinandcurrency242 said:
When it comes to coins, there is more to them than sports cards. Sports cards are pretty much paper with a player printed on it. With coins, there are gold and silver coins and the metal value will always mean something. As well as, the coins historical value.

Said like a true coin collector.

Other than the PM content, there's really no difference. A Jackie Robinson card is arguably far more historic than yet another rehashed version of liberty.

Catbert

All popped bubbles have ripple effects, direct and indirect. Collectibles are vulnerable during a recession and at some point we will have one.

fathom

The good stuff will always be good.

moursund

Sports cards should be in a bubble... gum package.

MFeld

If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

Cougar1978

I believe considering the times we are in many collectible venues could crash including numismatic coins. The bigger they are the more they fall. This was very true for the 89 crash. Another thing is once people get burned (89) they don’t come back.

Coins trading close to BV should be ok but bullion not exactly skyrocketing is it?

MrEureka

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

Thanks, Mark! You just save me the ten minutes it would have taken to say exactly the same thing.

Boosibri

@MrEureka said:

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

Thanks, Mark! You just save me the ten minutes it would have taken to say exactly the same thing.

My thoughts are also about the companies with exposure to both markets and leveraging themselves to capture the growth in the card bubble.

vulcanize

@Cougar1978 said:
I believe considering the times we are in many collectible venues could crash including numismatic coins. The bigger they are the more they fall. This was very true for the 89 crash. Another thing is once people get burned (89) they don’t come back.
Coins trading close to BV should be ok but bullion not exactly skyrocketing is it?

I lost quite a bit in the dot com bust and with a very valuable lesson learnt, have been a bit more cautious ever since.
A year and a half ago my kid liked to visit a store (that owner is in his mid-forties and mainly into sports cards, LP records, a little bit into coins and banknotes etc.) suggested it to him that he venture into sportscards, but my gut feeling said otherwise.
Anyways, told him my thoughts and gave him the decision making option, and he preferred to stick with coins, soccer jerseys and shoes in any case.
So yeah things may get hairy but that sort of scenario would play out for everything across the board perhaps. Who knows?

291fifth

A crash in the sports card market might have an unexpected impact on the coin market if it destabilizes the finances of major TPGs that are heavily dependent on the sports card market for their income.

MFeld

@MrEureka said:

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

Thanks, Mark! You just save me the ten minutes it would have taken to say exactly the same thing.

Andy, I’m sure you’ll return the favor more than once.😉

FredF

There are about 10000x as many sports fans as coin collectors (if not more). Topps does NFTs of digital images of special plays pretty much every day/week and they are scarfed up.

Let me phrase a similar question: does the recent spike at the top of the coin market say anything about the stamp market? Stamp market is essentially dead and will likely never recover. At least coins have silver and gold in them so draw some new fans on that basis.

Byers

Andy - I could have saved you ten minutes, in four words:

‘Buy low- sell high’

ricko

I have never been interested in sports cards.... I never watch ball sports at all. So I find it hard to relate to collecting pieces of card board that I used to put in my bike spokes for noise making.... Now, large pieces of gold or silver, that I can relate to. Cheers, RickO

jmlanzaf

@FredF said:
There are about 10000x as many sports fans as coin collectors (if not more). Topps does NFTs of digital images of special plays pretty much every day/week and they are scarfed up.

Let me phrase a similar question: does the recent spike at the top of the coin market say anything about the stamp market? Stamp market is essentially dead and will likely never recover. At least coins have silver and gold in them so draw some new fans on that basis.

Actually, stamp market is also up this year. That's why I'm not sure why we are talking about one sector over another. They may ALL be in a bubble, but claiming that sports cards are in a bubble but coins aren't is simple bias.

WaterSport

I have always felt that should that big crash occur - I will still be able to walk into Mc Donalds and buy a hamburger with my worthless - but still face value coins as oppose to presenting a beanie baby or sports card to the clerk.

WS

lkenefic

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

^^^ This. Overall market conditions that affect disposable income will likely affect most hobbies similarly... one could argue the metals value inherent in coins, but that only speaks to the segment of coin collecting at or near bullion prices on pieces with little numismatic value.

Boosibri

@lkenefic said:

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

^^^ This. Overall market conditions that affect disposable income will likely affect most hobbies similarly... one could argue the metals value inherent in coins, but that only speaks to the segment of coin collecting at or near bullion prices on pieces with little numismatic value.

That is very linear. What is the first and second derivative of a sharp market contraction when there is so much hot air in one sector of the collectibles market? Sub-prime lending was exposed as the housing market contracted, led to a Lehman and Bear collapse, which led to counter-party risks in AIG, and without a government bait out would have collapsed stable income funds in 401Ks which are synthetic financial instruments backed by nothing but derivatives.

Sharp moves in any market will expose more than just the bubble to the shockwaves.

MrEureka

@Boosibri said:

@MrEureka said:

@MFeld said:
If there’s a crash in the sports card market, I don’t think it would have much direct impact, at all, on the rare coin market. However, whatever conditions (besides high prices and supply catching up with demand) might cause a sports card market crash, could certainly impact rare coin prices, as well. I’m thinking of factors, such as economic conditions, less disposable income for collectors to spend, etc.

Thanks, Mark! You just save me the ten minutes it would have taken to say exactly the same thing.

My thoughts are also about the companies with exposure to both markets and leveraging themselves to capture the growth in the card bubble.

I could see the TPGs losing some money if they get caught off guard by a market crash but I don't see that risk as any sort of existential threat to the businesses.