That's why you don't leave your crypto, cash, or gold in other people's control.
That's the "gubmint folks" and the rabbit hole does go way deeper because of the place being part of a money laundering drug operation, but this FTX scenario is a totally different kettle of fish.
It isn't though. It illustrates that it doesn't matter what asset you're talking about, if you don't have it in your possession you can wake up and it's gone. Whether the bank goes out of business, the FBI raids it, if you store your PMs with a third party, if you invest cash with Bernie Madoff...
You mounted an attack without even knowing anything about me and assuming that I am ignorant about crypto.
Then you bring comparisons which are basically like apples and oranges.
Following video explains it all pretty well as to where FTX screwed up big time.
That's why you don't leave your crypto, cash, or gold in other people's control.
That's the "gubmint folks" and the rabbit hole does go way deeper because of the place being part of a money laundering drug operation, but this FTX scenario is a totally different kettle of fish.
It isn't though. It illustrates that it doesn't matter what asset you're talking about, if you don't have it in your possession you can wake up and it's gone. Whether the bank goes out of business, the FBI raids it, if you store your PMs with a third party, if you invest cash with Bernie Madoff...
You mounted an attack without even knowing anything about me and assuming that I am ignorant about crypto.
Then you bring comparisons which are basically like apples and oranges.
Following video explains it all pretty well as to where FTX screwed up big time.
Yes, FTX screwed up. And so did users who left their crypto on an exchange that was rehypothecating their assets. That would be like depositing your gold coins or bars with a company that turned around and lent them out. But just because a gold storage company gets in trouble and goes out of business it doesn't affect the viability of gold as an investment. Smart crypto investors withdraw their coins to their own private wallets and avoid third party risk, just as smart coin and bullion investors hold their coins/bullion in their own secure storage.
Crypto and gold do not seem to be the save haven to run to when stocks are crashing. Gold down 6%. Do not really know much about crypto though heard something it contributes to global warming because of the tremendous amounts of energy thru server space it takes to keep it going.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
I’ve got my peeps on the ground helping find homies lost Zip drive with his gazillion dollar crypto.
Let’s go to the field and get a report.” Any luck? No, keep digging 🙀😁
.
If you don't find the crypto, keep looking - maybe you'll find that lost Stella.
@ProofCollection said:
It's not a fringe concept at all. China is already testing it's version as are many other countries. The US will be left behind if we don't get something going soon.
Fringe is a relative and subjective phrase, but you can easily test the idea: conduct a randomized survey... I firmly believe that few people will know anything about it, and those few who do will acknowledge that the idea is years away from reality. To me, that's a fringe concept.
Also, the Fed's Jerome Powell recently said the the digital currency is years away from introduction:
Agree the fringe is subjective, but how "fringe" can it be if it's something the federal government is planning and will be doing? It may be years away but it WILL happen.
I don't think you understand technology maturity models. We are probably at around the equivalent of the 2001 Internet tech crash. .... Crypto needs the same ramp up.
Of which "maturity models" do you speak? I understand the relationship between technology and economy very well. In short, the period between development and acceptance is indirectly proportional to a technology's utility. The greater the utility the shorter the time to adoption. Period. As I said before: crypto is not going away, but it will not supplant any other form of payment. Its risks outweigh its benefits.
Risks > benefits depends on the application. For me, sending $1M in USD stablecoin to purchase something from Europe from my home computer in my underwear at midnight on a weekend trumps taking a shower, putting on clothes, waiting for Monday, driving to the bank, standing in line at the bank, paying $100 wire fee, praying all of the numbers and information was right, and then following up to make sure it was received. I fail to see where there's any additional risk for transferring my cash into crypto and sending the crypto for as little as $1 in this scenario. In fact, the risk of holding/transacting crypto isn't really any different than what's associated with cash. With cash or crypto, With either one, YOU are responsible for keeping track of it and keeping it safe.
You also don't understand how crypto works... Crypto will scale up just fine, just like Internet bandwidth has over the years.
Oh, boy. I understand crypto very well, thank you. Scalability is not just a technological issue. The question is who is willing to adopt the new technology and at what cost? Large fractions of the US economy have no immediate use for, or interest in, crypto. Crypto was the new Gold Rush, but the rush is over. We've seen this before. There is just no widespread interest in crypto beyond the Gold Rush mentality. Everybody wants to cash in, but nobody is in a hurry to use it.
Sorry I was hung up on the traditional scalability arguments, it sounds like you are talking about adoption. The free market will determine when and how it is adopted. Much like my parents didn't have much use for the Internet until Facebook, that adoption will come when the applications and technology come. They are all in the works.
Again, crypto will scale just fine. The earliest projects have and had some capacity issues but it's software and there are fixes. There are higher capacity networks coming and in the works. It's a little naive to suggest that a software and computing problem has an upper limit that can't or won't be overcome.
Not naive at all. I am not critiquing the underlying technology. Rather, I argue that scalability is a function of social acceptance and utility, neither of which exist outside narrow channels.
How would sending $1M in Tether (crypto dollars) for a ~$10 transaction fee in minutes not be faster, safer, or cheaper than sending a dude with a suitcase of cash?
We already have incredibly fast, safe, sand affordable forms of payment: ACH, credit cards, wire transfers, and soon FedNow. Crypto's relatively low transaction fees will rise as governments and financial institutions impose regulations and fees. The market will not allow crypto to exist in a vacuum. The regulations and fees are coming soon. Even CZ is asking for regulatory action.
I agree that regulation is needed and the reason is that US businesses need to know what the rules are. No one can afford to develop applications and business models until they know the SEC or some other government entity won't come after them. The basic KYC and reporting regulations already exist and has not impacted crypto transaction fees that I can see. Regulation has not resulted in high fees in securities realm, I can trade stocks and options for just a few dollars and that's just so the brokers can make a few dollars on the service they are providing. Why would crypto be different?
PS: nobody ever said no to a suitcase filled with cash
Then you haven't tried to buy a new car or even a house with cash. Some car dealers will turn you away or limit the amount of cash they accept and a title company won't accept cash at all.
Not exactly the same thing. The overhead of sending someone around to collect payments from the boxes negates any benefits. And prepaying involves the consumer becoming a creditor. The advantage of the crypto is that the programmed accounting and tiny transaction fees make it feasible to collect a small payment, such as $3-5 every day with almost no overhead. And in the case of solar, payments could flow the other direction too if production exceeded demand.
The overhead was built into the cost of the utility. And what's wrong with the consumer being a creditor? Millions of people pre-pay for their utilities and rent every month. None of this is new. And all forms of payment necessitate transaction fees. That cost is built into the market. Crypto's transaction fees are relatively less than other forms of payment for now. That will change as the market grows. Regulation is expensive, and all those banks investing in crypto want to get paid. Transaction fees will grow in direct proportion to the growth of crypto.
You just made my point. The overhead was built into the cost. Without the overhead of collecting payments, the utility would have or could have charged less or had higher profits. This is a prime benefit of programmable money.
I challenge why you think transaction fees will grow. Why does Coinbase need to charge more than they already charge for me to withdraw USD via ACH to my bank? I'm pretty sure Coinbase accepts deposit via ACH for free as they want to encourage deposits which encourages trading which is how they make their money. Coinbase already performs all of the KYC and regulatory (tax) reporting to the IRS. Please provide details on how if crypto becomes more popular Coinbase needs to start charging more for these services?
You really should take some time to understand how some of these crypto networks operate and you'll see that there will be no fees or middlemen coming.
I'm very familiar with crypto and similar technologies, and I'm especially familiar with informal economies and emerging markets. Crypto has a place in society (as I said before), but it's future role is vastly exaggerated by proponents. And, in major economies, like the US, the market won't allow crypto as we know it to expand beyond the fringe without regulation and the imposition of fees. To repeat, just today CZ ackowledged that the entire crypto universe needs more regulation. That regulation will necessarily involve a middle-man and that middle-man will increase the cost of every crypto transaction.
While there are crypto enthusiasts who overstate or are "unrealistically visionary" about the technology, I am realistic about it's applications and utility. You keep mentioning that more fees and regulation are coming, but Elon can (and probably will) integrate DOGEcoin into Twitter and nothing about the DOGEcoin network will change. Twitter may be required to do KYC or limit transaction sizes or report large transaction to the IRS, but that will be an expense of doing business on or with Twitter incorporated into a monthly user fee or taken as a percentage of each transaction on the Twitter platform, not on peer-to-peer transactions on the DOGEcoin network. The DOGEcoin developers will never implement any middleman, censorship, or additional fees for using DOGE no matter what the US government says.
14 years is not enough time for a technology to go from birth to widespread adoption.
Sure it is: telegraph, electricity, telephone, radio, airplanes all enjoyed widespread use within a few years. Crypto is more like Uber and Segway and iRobot and other gimmicks. They serve a limited purpose to a narrow market.
14 years is nothing. According to Google, the first phone was invented in 1849 and we didn't see the transcontinental phone line until 1915, 66 years later. The Internet is the perfect example that destroys your argument. It is immensely useful technology but it has taken decades to get to where it is today. Why? Not because it wasn't a useful technology. Because it took lots of steps to evolve the technology. Faster dial up modems were needed and then broadband and then we had to get broadband to every home. On the software side of things HTML had to evolve to HTML 5 and Flash and Java and database and payment and storage technologies had to grow and evolve. For crypto, recent developments are Layer 2's and Defi and Web 3. When they finally develop or figure out a crypto identity solution that will open up more possibilities.
This ends my rant against crypto. Let's meet back here in 5 years and see where we stand. Again, I wish you all great success and fortune!
Sorry to re-open the conversation but I felt there were some important responses. I'm not unrealistic about what crypto is and what it is not. Crypto technology allows for some new applications and makes some existing capabilities to be better (faster, cheaper, more secure, etc) than current (traditional) methods. It may not be a dramatic improvement but they are desired improvements that will be adopted as soon as economically and technologically and legally feasible.
The biggest sector for crypto will probably start with gaming. It's a natural evolution that people want to be able to take or transfer their earnings and digital assets from one gaming ecosystem to another and sell when they're done with. This space is just getting started with crypto. Peer-to-peer and automated lending, automated payments, NFTs. Crypto is far from being mature and on the decline when it's still getting started. Companies like fidelity aren't bringing crypto trading to their customers because it's a dying fad. JP Morgan isn't investing heavily in cryptos because it's a gimmick.
I doubt I've changed your mind but maybe someone on this forum will find this informative.
@hvellente said:
Or, to put it another way, crypto seems not to be safer than any other form of currency.
Fraud is not new. It's just taking awhile for the crypto gangsters to figure out how to hack, cheat, lie, and steal like everyone else.
FWIW, I'm not opposed to crypto. I'm opposed to the cult followers that tell me day after day how great it is.
Exactly.
I've interacted with it from 2009 and what gets my goat every time is while trying to get some sense aross, those wet behind the ears arbitarily accuses one of ignorance.
“ wet behind the ears”.
That’s what I’m trying to avoid while learning. Unfortunately, there’s this problem that I keep getting peed on and told its raining. 😁🙀
@Jzyskowski1 said:
“ wet behind the ears”.
That’s what I’m trying to avoid while learning. Unfortunately, there’s this problem that I keep getting peed on and told its raining. 😁🙀
@yspsales said:
A dollar has always been a stable for of commerce in my lifetime.
There are no guarantees that this will continue. Things are stable until they are not. Not making any predictions here.
If you mean low Beta (volatility), I agree with you. But since the 80's I reckon my dollar buys about 1/4-1/5 of what it did back then, so I'm not sure how stable that really is.
What currency outside a 3rd world basket case country act this way?
The high volatility is a result of being new and the lack of institutional participation. More on this below. But you also seem to ignore the huge crashes and moves we've seen in the stock market. Big moves and crashes aren't unique to crypto.
You can corner beans, gold, silver, and apparently crypto.
You "mine" this crypto junk with a computer.
Not all crypto is mined. Some are "IPO'd" like stocks.
It is the fav of poker players and the underground black market.
And so is cash. It just so happens that crypto, being electronic/digital, is a little be more convenient to work with so naturally it has become popular. Being the 21st century it's about time for money to evolve.
There are multiple "coins" so you are back to the risk on insolvency.
Where is the exclusivity?
The short answer is, there's value in networks and scale. If you can create a crypto and get millions around the world to adopt and use it, you've created something. It's not as easy or trivial as you suggest.
There are so many holes in this scheme with regulation coming down the road.
Regulation is greatly needed. The regulations that will come will be in the form of the government letting the big Wall St firms know the rules so they can get involved. They need to know if crypto is to be treated like a security (which they really aren't) or have a new classification. Until the government creates the policies, such as licensing and custodial requirements, the big firms are scared to get involved. But they are chomping at the bit and pouring millions into infrastructure in anticipation. Once the big money can get involved, this will probably lower volatility considerably, and you will see trillions pour into crypto.
I get dropping 5% of your net worth into this stuff as a hedge.
Or more importantly, for diversification.
I am afraid many more, put much more into this scheme than was warranted.
I'm afraid that many put more into stock at recent highs than should have been warranted. How many bought gold with is was at $2k/oz, or silver at $50? Or real estate 8 months ago?
When you start to hear advertising Crypto at your ATM machine or Sirius Radio or it is a topic of conversation at your friends football game?
it was past time to get out.
Or it's time to pay attention and realize that crypto has legs.
You're in this forum so I assume you see the legitimacy and value and future of precious metals. But there are many who would disagree and call PMs relics and a thing of the past. As a point I've made before, it's a lot harder for Americans to see the value of crypto because we have robust financial services and a stable currency. But that isn't true everywhere.
Also consider that the financial press isn't going to be a fan of cryptos and PMs until they fully participate. Why? Because it's hard for Wall Street, at least as of today, to make money off of your investments in these sectors. Wall St pushes the products they can profit on so they are far from impartial.
It's been said before, here and elsewhere, but it bears repeating- crypto is recapitulating the financial history of securities markets. Traders owning exchanges & front-running new listings & order flow, exchanges accepting their own equity tokens as collateral, misappropriation of customer assets & massive rehypothecation in general. What's not as well advertised yet is they're figuring it out and talking it out in public- there's been a fantastic Twitter space running nearly all weekend that anyone can listen to. What's clear is many people in the space knew there were problems but there was no one to complain to- no regulator, no authority, and now they're comparing notes.
There's a good chance they'll figure it out. I wouldn't underestimate them.
I've done pretty good with my crypto investment this year. I haven't lost a single Cent. Or is that bit sent. Oh well I'm not really sure what it is. I guess that's why I don't invest in crypto and that's why I haven't lost anything. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I like investing in things that I understand and crypto is not anything I understand or really want to understand. When you can lose so much money in one day and never know whether you're going to lose that amount the next day. It's not for me so I'll never lose any money in crypto.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
@ranshdow said:
What's clear is many people in the space knew there were problems but there was no one to complain to- no regulator, no authority, and now they're comparing notes.
Well, for now many are going to get stewed for sure
Yes, FTX screwed up. And so did users who left their crypto on an exchange that was rehypothecating their assets. That would be like depositing your gold coins or bars with a company that turned around and lent them out. But just because a gold storage company gets in trouble and goes out of business it doesn't affect the viability of gold as an investment. Smart crypto investors withdraw their coins to their own private wallets and avoid third party risk, just as smart coin and bullion investors hold their coins/bullion in their own secure storage.
How is this different from how every single bank in the world operates?
There are transaction costs for everything. I don't think that s a controversial statement. It is simply impossible to transfer money for free. It's not necessarily true that the sender or the recipient (or both) pays the costs, but it's a good idea to question who pays.
Citigroup, HSBC Holdings, Mastercard and Wells Fargo are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed, which will provide a "public contribution to the body of knowledge on the application of new technology to the regulated financial system."
Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar (CBDC) to speed up settlement time in currency markets.
For years, Wall Street’s biggest banks have explored the use of blockchain in their businesses for everything from interbank payments to mortgages and cross-border trades.
Yep, little real world application. Just speeding up settlement times for all of the worlds banks. Nothing useful.
Citigroup, HSBC Holdings, Mastercard and Wells Fargo are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed, which will provide a "public contribution to the body of knowledge on the application of new technology to the regulated financial system."
Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar (CBDC) to speed up settlement time in currency markets.
For years, Wall Street’s biggest banks have explored the use of blockchain in their businesses for everything from interbank payments to mortgages and cross-border trades.
Yep, little real world application. Just speeding up settlement times for all of the worlds banks. Nothing useful.
Haters gonna hate. It's been over 100 years and people still don't trust Federal Reserve Notes.
This is gonna be umm…. Controversial.. but yea, I do like crypto. I do own some NFTs, but they are Reddit avatar NFTs that I paid $10-100 for, and they all went 4-20x in value. Only NFTs I own (that weren’t airdropped to me for free). I think crypto has a lot of potential. I think long term crypto will be like the internet. I do agree with most of the comments the BAYC NFTs are insanely overvalued and stupid (people say it’s a status thing; and it is, but it’s not for me so ehh). I do buy/hold ETH/BTC and a bit of alt coins
Bitcoin was promoted as a currency and a long-term store of wealth. It's proven to be neither. So what is it? It's a highly speculative asset that most folks don't understand, even very wealthy investors like Kevin O'Leary who claimed he had done due diligence before investing millions into Bitcoin.
The hype surrounding this unregulated, decentralized currency never many any sense to me. Does anyone really think major governments like the U.S. are going to allow some unregulated currency they can't monitor, control and tax threaten the U.S. dollar? Bitcoin is mined at the whim of governments that control the electricity required to mine it and technology required to exchange it.
Digital currency is already here and at some point will be the universal medium of exchange, with the exception of a gray/black market. The government will control it and have the ability to track every dollar you make, save and spend.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
@pmh1nic said:
Bitcoin was promoted as a currency and a long-term store of wealth. It's proven to be neither. So what is it? It's a highly speculative asset that most folks don't understand, even very wealthy investors like Kevin O'Leary who claimed he had done due diligence before investing millions into Bitcoin.
The hype surrounding this unregulated, decentralized currency never many any sense to me. Does anyone really think major governments like the U.S. are going to allow some unregulated currency they can't monitor, control and tax threaten the U.S. dollar? Bitcoin is mined at the whim of governments that control the electricity required to mine it and technology required to exchange it.
Digital currency is already here and at some point will be the universal medium of exchange, with the exception of a gray/black market. The government will control it and have the ability to track every dollar you make, save and spend.
Promoted by whom? Could you cite the source?
Of course there have been people with opinions that run the gamut from enthusiastic hype to pessimistic dismissal. If you listen to either extreme, they were horribly wrong.
The same exact thing occurred with the internet. People dismissed it. People hyped it. The truth lay in between.
@pmh1nic said:
Bitcoin was promoted as a currency and a long-term store of wealth. It's proven to be neither. So what is it? It's a highly speculative asset that most folks don't understand, even very wealthy investors like Kevin O'Leary who claimed he had done due diligence before investing millions into Bitcoin.
As jmlanzaf said, by who? Bitcoin has no central media organization or budget. Do we want to talk about all the things gold bugs have said in the past or the US Dollar doomsayers? They have as much credibility.
But for the record, Bitcoin has been a very good store of wealth but like with any asset it's a matter of timing. The reality is, raising interest rates is very bullish for the dollar so when you buy BTC with USD, you go long BTC and short the USD which was a bad move. The strong dollar has been bad for the price of many assets including stocks. The USD bull will continue as long as the fed keeps raising rates. It's not a reflection of the quality of other asset classes as it is just relative performance.
BTC has a high volatility for sure, but it also has high alpha potential. As with any investing with risk comes reward. And again, BTC isn't necessary a great store of value for US citizens, but if you're in one of these countries with a declining government currency, BTC has held value VERY well.
And while Bitcoin has traded at 3-4x it's current USD value in the past (and may stocks are trading at half of what they were 6 months ago), it's still up massively from its early days. If history is a guide, it's likely that within the next year or two BTC will be setting new highs when the USD stops gaining value.
The hype surrounding this unregulated, decentralized currency never many any sense to me. Does anyone really think major governments like the U.S. are going to allow some unregulated currency they can't monitor, control and tax threaten the U.S. dollar? Bitcoin is mined at the whim of governments that control the electricity required to mine it and technology required to exchange it.
I don't know, why wouldn't the US government prefer a digital currency they CAN monitor to some degree compared to the federal reserve notes that they can't monitor at all or tax and for which they can only control the printing of? Bitcoin is not much different than any other asset such as oil, metals, lumber, cattle, corn, etc. Why would a government be threatened with this a new asset class if you still must pay your taxes in FRNs? Historically when any government fiat starts losing value, the population naturally turns to barter, and that's essentially what it is when you trade your Bitcoin for a hamburger.
Digital currency is already here and at some point will be the universal medium of exchange, with the exception of a gray/black market. The government will control it and have the ability to track every dollar you make, save and spend.
Yes, for the CBDCs. Decentralized cryptocurrency will always exist as its own market, there is no way to stop it.
I can cut through all the BS for you. It's the old golden rule... However has the gold, makes the rules. Just follow the money gentlemen. See who's pockets it ended up in.... Problem solved!!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
@OAKSTAR said:
I can cut through all the BS for you. It's the old golden rule... However has the gold, makes the rules. Just follow the money gentlemen. See who's pockets it ended up in.... Problem solved!!
That's why I recommend my strategy: buy gold with your crypto profits!
@OAKSTAR said:
Fortunately, I never met a financial advisor that said invest in coins or crypto.
You know why that is right? It's pretty hard for most financial advisors to take a cut of your coin or crypto purchase. And if they were to take a cut, you know you'd be paying too much.
@OAKSTAR said:
Fortunately, I never met a financial advisor that said invest in coins or crypto.
You know why that is right? It's pretty hard for most financial advisors to take a cut of your coin or crypto purchase. And if they were to take a cut, you know you'd be paying too much.
Not if you had a GOOD financial advisor looking out for your best financial interests like a fiduciary.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Sorry but I have zero interest in something that comes from nothing, is backed by nothing, and where even supposed experts on it and creators of it cannot clearly define its uses. And those "crypto profits" aren't so profitable right now. As I write this, they're all down between 2% and 7% today alone. Ask the folks who ran BTC up and bought it at $40k what they think about it at $16k. I'll stick with shiny metal with a few thousand years long track record of having proven value anywhere in the world and that has never been worth zero....and that someone can't simply make worthless literally with the flip of a switch.
Comments
And in this corner we have “crypto “kitty. And in this corner “pipe dream “ kitty May the best option win😁🙀🦫😸😻
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
You mounted an attack without even knowing anything about me and assuming that I am ignorant about crypto.
Then you bring comparisons which are basically like apples and oranges.
Following video explains it all pretty well as to where FTX screwed up big time.
Tone down the rhetoric.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Does Stink to high heavens indeed.
Has shades of 2008 with the too big to fail blah blah.....
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Yes, FTX screwed up. And so did users who left their crypto on an exchange that was rehypothecating their assets. That would be like depositing your gold coins or bars with a company that turned around and lent them out. But just because a gold storage company gets in trouble and goes out of business it doesn't affect the viability of gold as an investment. Smart crypto investors withdraw their coins to their own private wallets and avoid third party risk, just as smart coin and bullion investors hold their coins/bullion in their own secure storage.
Edited to add:
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/bullion-direct-bankruptcy.html
Same thing. Different industry.
Lesson learned: If it's not in your possession you don't own it.
Crypto and gold do not seem to be the save haven to run to when stocks are crashing. Gold down 6%. Do not really know much about crypto though heard something it contributes to global warming because of the tremendous amounts of energy thru server space it takes to keep it going.
Box of 20
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If you don't find the crypto, keep looking - maybe you'll find that lost Stella.
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The news I hear about this subject makes me think maybe it should be re-named:
"Klepto-Currency".
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Agree the fringe is subjective, but how "fringe" can it be if it's something the federal government is planning and will be doing? It may be years away but it WILL happen.
Risks > benefits depends on the application. For me, sending $1M in USD stablecoin to purchase something from Europe from my home computer in my underwear at midnight on a weekend trumps taking a shower, putting on clothes, waiting for Monday, driving to the bank, standing in line at the bank, paying $100 wire fee, praying all of the numbers and information was right, and then following up to make sure it was received. I fail to see where there's any additional risk for transferring my cash into crypto and sending the crypto for as little as $1 in this scenario. In fact, the risk of holding/transacting crypto isn't really any different than what's associated with cash. With cash or crypto, With either one, YOU are responsible for keeping track of it and keeping it safe.
Sorry I was hung up on the traditional scalability arguments, it sounds like you are talking about adoption. The free market will determine when and how it is adopted. Much like my parents didn't have much use for the Internet until Facebook, that adoption will come when the applications and technology come. They are all in the works.
I agree that regulation is needed and the reason is that US businesses need to know what the rules are. No one can afford to develop applications and business models until they know the SEC or some other government entity won't come after them. The basic KYC and reporting regulations already exist and has not impacted crypto transaction fees that I can see. Regulation has not resulted in high fees in securities realm, I can trade stocks and options for just a few dollars and that's just so the brokers can make a few dollars on the service they are providing. Why would crypto be different?
Then you haven't tried to buy a new car or even a house with cash. Some car dealers will turn you away or limit the amount of cash they accept and a title company won't accept cash at all.
You just made my point. The overhead was built into the cost. Without the overhead of collecting payments, the utility would have or could have charged less or had higher profits. This is a prime benefit of programmable money.
I challenge why you think transaction fees will grow. Why does Coinbase need to charge more than they already charge for me to withdraw USD via ACH to my bank? I'm pretty sure Coinbase accepts deposit via ACH for free as they want to encourage deposits which encourages trading which is how they make their money. Coinbase already performs all of the KYC and regulatory (tax) reporting to the IRS. Please provide details on how if crypto becomes more popular Coinbase needs to start charging more for these services?
While there are crypto enthusiasts who overstate or are "unrealistically visionary" about the technology, I am realistic about it's applications and utility. You keep mentioning that more fees and regulation are coming, but Elon can (and probably will) integrate DOGEcoin into Twitter and nothing about the DOGEcoin network will change. Twitter may be required to do KYC or limit transaction sizes or report large transaction to the IRS, but that will be an expense of doing business on or with Twitter incorporated into a monthly user fee or taken as a percentage of each transaction on the Twitter platform, not on peer-to-peer transactions on the DOGEcoin network. The DOGEcoin developers will never implement any middleman, censorship, or additional fees for using DOGE no matter what the US government says.
14 years is nothing. According to Google, the first phone was invented in 1849 and we didn't see the transcontinental phone line until 1915, 66 years later. The Internet is the perfect example that destroys your argument. It is immensely useful technology but it has taken decades to get to where it is today. Why? Not because it wasn't a useful technology. Because it took lots of steps to evolve the technology. Faster dial up modems were needed and then broadband and then we had to get broadband to every home. On the software side of things HTML had to evolve to HTML 5 and Flash and Java and database and payment and storage technologies had to grow and evolve. For crypto, recent developments are Layer 2's and Defi and Web 3. When they finally develop or figure out a crypto identity solution that will open up more possibilities.
Sorry to re-open the conversation but I felt there were some important responses. I'm not unrealistic about what crypto is and what it is not. Crypto technology allows for some new applications and makes some existing capabilities to be better (faster, cheaper, more secure, etc) than current (traditional) methods. It may not be a dramatic improvement but they are desired improvements that will be adopted as soon as economically and technologically and legally feasible.
As I said before, it's easy for Americans to say they don't get it, but it can be very enabling to people in other countries without regular or easy access to banks.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/blockchain-used-by-budweiser-owner-inbev-to-help-african-farmers
The biggest sector for crypto will probably start with gaming. It's a natural evolution that people want to be able to take or transfer their earnings and digital assets from one gaming ecosystem to another and sell when they're done with. This space is just getting started with crypto. Peer-to-peer and automated lending, automated payments, NFTs. Crypto is far from being mature and on the decline when it's still getting started. Companies like fidelity aren't bringing crypto trading to their customers because it's a dying fad. JP Morgan isn't investing heavily in cryptos because it's a gimmick.
I doubt I've changed your mind but maybe someone on this forum will find this informative.
Looks like you had the crystal ball.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
In your underwear, at midnight. on the weekend. That’s certainly a convincing argument 🤨
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
>
So would this be considered a magic trick with balls?
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Here’s wonderful news 🤨
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Your money is somewhere over the rainbow.
The Mysterious Egyptian Magic Coin
Coins in Movies
Coins on Television
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Isn't that the reason that internet killed the big box stores? "Convenience" is valued.
How many billions at Lehman Brothers or Bernie Madoff?
This criminal fraud is no more endemic to crypto than it is to US dollars.
I agree. I also feel the same way about gold bugs.
Exactly.
I've interacted with it from 2009 and what gets my goat every time is while trying to get some sense aross, those wet behind the ears arbitarily accuses one of ignorance.
https://broward.ghost.io/2022/11/11/prediction-win-miners-going-bankrupt/
^ Above link has very interesting number crunching
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
“ wet behind the ears”.
That’s what I’m trying to avoid while learning. Unfortunately, there’s this problem that I keep getting peed on and told its raining. 😁🙀
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
LOL
https://www.fastcompany.com/90809947/the-ftx-collapse-is-a-harsh-lesson-in-hype-advertising
Savvy marketing can also do it to ya
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
A dollar has always been a stable for of commerce in my lifetime.
What currency outside a 3rd world basket case country act this way?
You can corner beans, gold, silver, and apparently crypto.
You "mine" this crypto junk with a computer.
It is the fav of poker players and the underground black market.
There are multiple "coins" so you are back to the risk on insolvency.
Where is the exclusivity?
There are so many holes in this scheme with regulation coming down the road.
I get dropping 5% of your net worth into this stuff as a hedge.
I am afraid many more, put much more into this scheme than was warranted.
When you start to hear advertising Crypto at your ATM machine or Sirius Radio or it is a topic of conversation at your friends football game?
it was past time to get out.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Looks as if somebody "Madoff" with alot of Crypto!
There are no guarantees that this will continue. Things are stable until they are not. Not making any predictions here.
If you mean low Beta (volatility), I agree with you. But since the 80's I reckon my dollar buys about 1/4-1/5 of what it did back then, so I'm not sure how stable that really is.
The high volatility is a result of being new and the lack of institutional participation. More on this below. But you also seem to ignore the huge crashes and moves we've seen in the stock market. Big moves and crashes aren't unique to crypto.
Not all crypto is mined. Some are "IPO'd" like stocks.
And so is cash. It just so happens that crypto, being electronic/digital, is a little be more convenient to work with so naturally it has become popular. Being the 21st century it's about time for money to evolve.
The short answer is, there's value in networks and scale. If you can create a crypto and get millions around the world to adopt and use it, you've created something. It's not as easy or trivial as you suggest.
Regulation is greatly needed. The regulations that will come will be in the form of the government letting the big Wall St firms know the rules so they can get involved. They need to know if crypto is to be treated like a security (which they really aren't) or have a new classification. Until the government creates the policies, such as licensing and custodial requirements, the big firms are scared to get involved. But they are chomping at the bit and pouring millions into infrastructure in anticipation. Once the big money can get involved, this will probably lower volatility considerably, and you will see trillions pour into crypto.
Or more importantly, for diversification.
I'm afraid that many put more into stock at recent highs than should have been warranted. How many bought gold with is was at $2k/oz, or silver at $50? Or real estate 8 months ago?
Or it's time to pay attention and realize that crypto has legs.
You're in this forum so I assume you see the legitimacy and value and future of precious metals. But there are many who would disagree and call PMs relics and a thing of the past. As a point I've made before, it's a lot harder for Americans to see the value of crypto because we have robust financial services and a stable currency. But that isn't true everywhere.
Also consider that the financial press isn't going to be a fan of cryptos and PMs until they fully participate. Why? Because it's hard for Wall Street, at least as of today, to make money off of your investments in these sectors. Wall St pushes the products they can profit on so they are far from impartial.
You can believe what you wish, but I would take 3% annual inflation any day.
I will agree with you on regulation.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
It's been said before, here and elsewhere, but it bears repeating- crypto is recapitulating the financial history of securities markets. Traders owning exchanges & front-running new listings & order flow, exchanges accepting their own equity tokens as collateral, misappropriation of customer assets & massive rehypothecation in general. What's not as well advertised yet is they're figuring it out and talking it out in public- there's been a fantastic Twitter space running nearly all weekend that anyone can listen to. What's clear is many people in the space knew there were problems but there was no one to complain to- no regulator, no authority, and now they're comparing notes.
There's a good chance they'll figure it out. I wouldn't underestimate them.
I've done pretty good with my crypto investment this year. I haven't lost a single Cent. Or is that bit sent. Oh well I'm not really sure what it is. I guess that's why I don't invest in crypto and that's why I haven't lost anything. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I like investing in things that I understand and crypto is not anything I understand or really want to understand. When you can lose so much money in one day and never know whether you're going to lose that amount the next day. It's not for me so I'll never lose any money in crypto.
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
The CNBC documentary has not aged well
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Well, for now many are going to get stewed for sure
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-customers-wonder-whether-theyll-ever-see-their-money-again-11668139118?mod=series_cryptobitcoindogecoin
FTX Customers Face a Long Road to Try to Get Their Money Back
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Does this ring a bell?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
It’s as real as I am. 🙀
And if you don’t believe me just look at the headline 🙃
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
How is this different from how every single bank in the world operates?
There are transaction costs for everything. I don't think that s a controversial statement. It is simply impossible to transfer money for free. It's not necessarily true that the sender or the recipient (or both) pays the costs, but it's a good idea to question who pays.
Uno Mas!!!!!
Domino effect?
Anyways, the ride's getting bumpier.....................
BlockFi Prepares for Potential Bankruptcy as Crypto Contagion Spreads
https://www.wsj.com/articles/blockfi-prepares-for-potential-bankruptcy-as-crypto-contagion-spreads-11668534824?mod=mhp
** Edited to replace with correct link
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
You wanta bet? Ask all the people he gave money to if it wasn't real!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
So who was saying it would take years for a digital dollar?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-come-programmable-dollars-new-york-fed-and-12-banking-giants-launch-digital-dollar
According to a statement by the New York Fed, global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the participants announced on Tuesday.
Citigroup, HSBC Holdings, Mastercard and Wells Fargo are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed, which will provide a "public contribution to the body of knowledge on the application of new technology to the regulated financial system."
Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar (CBDC) to speed up settlement time in currency markets.
For years, Wall Street’s biggest banks have explored the use of blockchain in their businesses for everything from interbank payments to mortgages and cross-border trades.
Yep, little real world application. Just speeding up settlement times for all of the worlds banks. Nothing useful.
Haters gonna hate. It's been over 100 years and people still don't trust Federal Reserve Notes.
This is gonna be umm…. Controversial.. but yea, I do like crypto. I do own some NFTs, but they are Reddit avatar NFTs that I paid $10-100 for, and they all went 4-20x in value. Only NFTs I own (that weren’t airdropped to me for free). I think crypto has a lot of potential. I think long term crypto will be like the internet. I do agree with most of the comments the BAYC NFTs are insanely overvalued and stupid (people say it’s a status thing; and it is, but it’s not for me so ehh). I do buy/hold ETH/BTC and a bit of alt coins
Bitcoin was promoted as a currency and a long-term store of wealth. It's proven to be neither. So what is it? It's a highly speculative asset that most folks don't understand, even very wealthy investors like Kevin O'Leary who claimed he had done due diligence before investing millions into Bitcoin.
The hype surrounding this unregulated, decentralized currency never many any sense to me. Does anyone really think major governments like the U.S. are going to allow some unregulated currency they can't monitor, control and tax threaten the U.S. dollar? Bitcoin is mined at the whim of governments that control the electricity required to mine it and technology required to exchange it.
Digital currency is already here and at some point will be the universal medium of exchange, with the exception of a gray/black market. The government will control it and have the ability to track every dollar you make, save and spend.
Promoted by whom? Could you cite the source?
Of course there have been people with opinions that run the gamut from enthusiastic hype to pessimistic dismissal. If you listen to either extreme, they were horribly wrong.
The same exact thing occurred with the internet. People dismissed it. People hyped it. The truth lay in between.
As jmlanzaf said, by who? Bitcoin has no central media organization or budget. Do we want to talk about all the things gold bugs have said in the past or the US Dollar doomsayers? They have as much credibility.
But for the record, Bitcoin has been a very good store of wealth but like with any asset it's a matter of timing. The reality is, raising interest rates is very bullish for the dollar so when you buy BTC with USD, you go long BTC and short the USD which was a bad move. The strong dollar has been bad for the price of many assets including stocks. The USD bull will continue as long as the fed keeps raising rates. It's not a reflection of the quality of other asset classes as it is just relative performance.
BTC has a high volatility for sure, but it also has high alpha potential. As with any investing with risk comes reward. And again, BTC isn't necessary a great store of value for US citizens, but if you're in one of these countries with a declining government currency, BTC has held value VERY well.
And while Bitcoin has traded at 3-4x it's current USD value in the past (and may stocks are trading at half of what they were 6 months ago), it's still up massively from its early days. If history is a guide, it's likely that within the next year or two BTC will be setting new highs when the USD stops gaining value.
I don't know, why wouldn't the US government prefer a digital currency they CAN monitor to some degree compared to the federal reserve notes that they can't monitor at all or tax and for which they can only control the printing of? Bitcoin is not much different than any other asset such as oil, metals, lumber, cattle, corn, etc. Why would a government be threatened with this a new asset class if you still must pay your taxes in FRNs? Historically when any government fiat starts losing value, the population naturally turns to barter, and that's essentially what it is when you trade your Bitcoin for a hamburger.
Yes, for the CBDCs. Decentralized cryptocurrency will always exist as its own market, there is no way to stop it.
I can cut through all the BS for you. It's the old golden rule... However has the gold, makes the rules. Just follow the money gentlemen. See who's pockets it ended up in.... Problem solved!!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
@OAKSTAR said: @taxbuster1040 said:
I just think this won't end well for some.
Looks like you had the crystal ball.
THANKS SO MUCH OAKSTAR... It actually wasn't to hard to see. What goes up must come down since the Tulip Mania many years ago.... Just sayin.
That's why I recommend my strategy: buy gold with your crypto profits!
Fortunately, I never met a financial advisor that said invest in coins or crypto.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
You know why that is right? It's pretty hard for most financial advisors to take a cut of your coin or crypto purchase. And if they were to take a cut, you know you'd be paying too much.
Not if you had a GOOD financial advisor looking out for your best financial interests like a fiduciary.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Sorry but I have zero interest in something that comes from nothing, is backed by nothing, and where even supposed experts on it and creators of it cannot clearly define its uses. And those "crypto profits" aren't so profitable right now. As I write this, they're all down between 2% and 7% today alone. Ask the folks who ran BTC up and bought it at $40k what they think about it at $16k. I'll stick with shiny metal with a few thousand years long track record of having proven value anywhere in the world and that has never been worth zero....and that someone can't simply make worthless literally with the flip of a switch.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012