Sleepers...
MrEureka
Posts: 24,333 ✭✭✭✭✭
I just stumbled on the fact that gem 1874 Three Cent Nickels are rarer than I thought. In MS66, it's pop 15 with 3 higher, which is nothing considering that PCGS has been grading coins for 35 years. And the last auction record was last year at $1350 all in. That seems like awfully good value, and I don't even have one for sale!
What else is surprisingly rare and undervalued? Pops and recent auction records, please!
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Go read Cladking’s post! 😂
Wondercoin
1887-S seated dime. 15 in MS66, 2 higher. $1080 in MS66.
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CAC 1840's philly gold eagles.
Yea, but it's a Nickel Three Cent Piece, the most boring coin in the American series until the Susan B. Anthony Dollars came along. Besides, now that you have pointed that out, the "bargain days" are over.
And if I had an interest and bid on one, it would go to $13,000 before I had chance to hit the bid button again. I hate auctions. They drive me crazy.
Yea, but it's a Nickel Three Cent Piece, the most boring coin in the American series until the Susan B. Anthony Dollars came along.
Bill- Pogue didn’t think so…
Wondercoin
And Quarter Eagles.
Many obsolete notes with fewer than 10 known examples sell for $100-$500. Supply and demand. And three cent nickels have always been near the low end of demand, as already noted.
1938-S Boone in 67. Pop 57 and 14 higher. MIntage 2,100, so the pop in 67 can't go too much higher. Widely collected series, even though prices are depressed. Last one sold for $1,050 last month.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
California Territorial gold seems to have suddenly disappeared.
Not the fractionals. The territorial $5s and $10s.
I follow these and it sure seems that very few are available.
1939 P/D/S Oregon Trails?
I think there is a case to be made for many such "sleepers" to be termed "comas" or "persistent vegetative states".
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Some of the gold dollars are underrated.
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obtainable because of lack of competing demand and sleeping are sort of different concepts. There are many "common" dates in collected series that are as rare or hard to get as Key dates. That is what I would consider a sleeper, a coin you don't know how hard it is get and the price guides don't pick up on it because it trades so infrequently so they list it at common type prices but is still widely collected.
Inversely rare coins that are thinly collected and become conditionally unobtainable aren't really sleepers if nobody cares.
Playing along the 1873s trade dollar is much rarer than type but typically is listed around that level. When they come up they typically do much better.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
So in that case, it’s not so much that the coin is sleeping, but that the editors of the price guides are. FWIW, the 73-S has long been listed in the guides at a big premium, at least in MS. If that has changed, I’d consider it a simple mistake.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Tons of sleepers in the Midgrade Barber Series. They ain't sleepers to me as I will buy any priced as a common date!
I've been hearing for the last, probably 20-30 years that classic commemoratives are poised for a comeback.
I would say that the 1848 half is a sleeper. Very difficult to find.
Tom, I'd call them coins where rigor mortis has already set in.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I used to pore over price guides, mintage figures and auction records looking for those “undervalued” issues. I’ve since concluded that while some issues may be underrated, none are undervalued. They have found their price level relative to other coins based upon the demand side of the equation.
Issues and series get hot from time to time for various reasons (promotion, a new reference, etc.) but essentially what is popular or not is commensurately priced. I no longer expect an overlooked issue’s scarcity to suddenly become discovered and desired by enough people to move the price needle.
Especially the Dead Presidents...
Every dog has its day. People will tire of "conditional rarities" like Ikes and Kennedys.
This one is gorgeous!
Beautiful coin but Pogue had a type set so I'm not sure I would take that as a commentary on the type.
There’s a tiny collector base for 3 Cent Nickels. Supply and demand at work here.
Dave
No doubt, but demand is not a constant.
Or to put it another way, I'm not saying that the current price is wrong, given the current level of demand. I'm saying that the current level of demand seems like it should be higher.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Well, I'm part of that tiny collector base and I like them.
.
Some good promotion may be able to create more interest in these.
I’m thinking back to a few years ago when I got some very strong alerts from The Greysheet publishers and writers, among others, that the lower mintage branch gold was extremely undervalued in their opinion.
Looking back on that now, it seems their buy signal had some merit. Or, are the price increases I’ve observed just along the line of the overall pandemic effect?
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Demand should be higher based on what? The coin has no precious metal, so won't appeal to stackers, nor an evocative story like most any CC or early coin, for example. It's also not particularly aestheticly pleasing, in my opinion. Finally, many collectors simply prefer larger coins.
Dave, that is a very nice 1877!!!
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I believe demand has finally outstripped the supply in half dollars and dollars;
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1058948/the-days-of-cheap-raw-moderns-are-over#latest
In order to explain why I believe there is so much potential in moderns one must understand both the nature of how these coins are made and their incidence. Where most classic coins that came out of the presses were nice attractive coins that any collector might have been proud to own then or now large percentages of modern were struck by tired worn old dies that were badly aligned and marked up badly before they ever left the mint. Planchets were scoured with scratches and the strike didn't obliterate all these marks because the metal is so hard. In every parameter of a coins grade most moderns are substandard.
I believe that despite the current short supply supplies will be even shorter if collectors begin searching for coins that are well made from good dies and relatively free of marking, which I believe will occur. In this grade as many as 90% of mint set coins will be found lacking and even the better made mint set coins often have only about half so nice. As always there are exceptions.
People will be surprised to find that many of the dimes and quarters are elusive in any grade that is attractive. Most Uncs come from mint sets but most mint sets have been destroyed. AU's and XF's just don't exist in circulation any longer while even VF's and Fine's can be tough. Circulation itself has turned into something akin to a grindstone that imparts tiny little scratches on every coin by means of counting machines and rough handling. Even finding a VG that is attractive and lacks such marking is a task for most dates.
Dimes are hard to predict since more were saved but they are hardly common. Cents and nickels are interesting since not every date was widely saved. Quarters are the tough ones. Halves and dollars are already soaring. But it's all these coins that are in the 90th %ile or higher for each attribute that have the most potential.
I typically find it isn’t issues that are sleepers but grades. The early 2000s run up of midrange barbers when people found out there were few left is a good example. That is one thing that came out of pop reports when perceived rarity got real data behind it.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I think the @DLHansen-Eliasberg Challenge is one of the best things that happened to sleepers.
The question is what is the encore.
Can you explain how Hansen's challenge has affected the average collector in regards to sleepers?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
We can to enjoy posts about them and get excited about following the Registry Set, like following sports.
I got a bunch of coins "sleeping" in my inventory
I think you have to differentiate sleeper regular issues from sleeper condition rarities.
There are coins that are difficult to find in certain mint state grades but are common issues...the 1874 3C.
Then you have the business strike issues that are scarce in all grades, undervalued in relation to others in the series. These are more likely to be recognized as the demand will eventually cause a price increase to complete the series or interest a collector who is actively seeking a subset of say O mint half eagles.
Condition rarities can be sleepers, just do not expect an eventual rise in pricing unless it is a popular in-demand series.
I have found the 1886-S and 1901-S Morgans to be condition rarity sleepers, undervalued in somewhat original condition with bright flashy luster and fresh mint frost. Most have been through the dippy-do dealer gauntlet. When a spectacular MS63 and up specimen does come up for sale it hits a higher than guide price but still seems low in comparison to the dreck that is usually found.
Totally agree.
Even the quarter keys [all three] are underpriced.
BHNC #203
All true, but the series doesn’t need to become popular to take off. It just needs to become more popular than it currently is.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I was told the same thing about pre-1933 gold a couple years ago when I was picking a lot up at just over bullion price... and then demand caught up! Buy low, sell high
Thanks! I'm Mark, by the way. Not Dave.
Fair enough, although lacking any apparent catalyst on the horizon, I won't be betting on that to occur. YMMV.