Prices are Total Insanity - Time Will Tell - by Laura Sperber
Zoins
Posts: 34,113 ✭✭✭✭✭
We know prices are strong, but Laura is saying they are insane! Even Legend cannot buy coins now!
The following are some excerpts from Laura's Market Report. Click through to read the details.
https://www.legendnumismatics.com/market_reports/time-will-tell/
Laura wrote:
TOTAL INSANITY
We expected strong prices at the auctions, not total insanity. We got nuked so bad we quit bidding in BOTH auctions early. It was worse then having whiplash!
Yes, there is THAT MUCH money out there. We hope collectors do not get indigestion. It remains to be seen how much spunk this market really has. So far for the entire year, it has exceeded our expectations.
Better PCGS NON CAC coins and NGC coins (NON CAC too) sold into beyond moon money prices in the auctions.
[...]
We MUST warn people, do NOT expect to get those crazy numbers-even in a future auction. It was more like a perfect storm hit. Now we have to see if we are in a serious bull market or was it the final legs of one. Keep in mind, in a true bull market EVERYTHING sells for a profit.We do advise you sell into it if you can-this is our opinion.
[...]
Even if you don’t have gold, you might want to consider selling into the euphoria. Remember though, if you want auction prices, put the coins in an auction (unless its a true rarity)! It is our strong opinion that many of the auction buyers will be in hibernation until FUN 2022, unless some big or killer collection hits the market between now and then.If you can afford to hold a long time, then you’ll be in good shape. We have not seen an inflow of money like this since the 1980’s. As we have mentioned many times before, our greatest concern for losing this huge wave of new money-lack of coins.
Laura lists a few specific coins in the article, including the Strickland, Lord St. Oswald, Pogue, Simpson 1793 dollar:
Comments
@Zoins
Thanks for sharing. I don't always remember to visit their site for the update. Too much going on sometimes.
AMC, Gamestop, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, NFT's, Sports cards, etc.... have given a number of people millions to spend somewhere else. It appears maybe coins are a place they have come. I guess I was not alone when I bowed out of all recent auctions well before closing time. Good luck to all.
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CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
There are market sectors that are doing well... I still see the venue and who the participants are that are critical to hammer prices that are somewhere between sky high high and the moon. However, to Legend's point it is about the inflow of money and that could be coming from sources that I have simply not contemplated. And some sort or rotation into numismatics seems to make sense... but at what level? And that I suppose is what the time will tell means in all of this.
I did follow a small auction yesterday and currency seems to be bringing prices that I thought were simply unrealistic and possibly not sustainable. But one cannot be correct all the time.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Looks like a frenzy of acquisition going on... and a lot of disposable cash out there. Looks to me (and I am not a financial wizard and do not write an investment column) like a bubble.... no idea how long it will last. Could be some buying opportunities in the future though. Cheers, RickO
I agree. Coins and bullion probably look like good places to put there GameStop or which ever new money or those who got burned are looking for a tangible value
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
what is happening now is similar to what was happening through the first decade of the 2000's. the difference I see is that the first one was propelled by rising PM's and an overall hot market cycle, this one is propelled more by dealer greed and the fact that buyers have decided they only want to spend the money, not really looking forward in time(or caring) and being impatient.
both times, then and now, seem to be supported by dealer-to-dealer sales of 3-3+ times for each item. if a non-dealer interrupts that chain, they are quoted a high price and pony up. good luck to everyone in 5-10 years, that noise you hear will be wailing and the gnashing of teeth as the negative equity adds up.
I mentioned in a different thread that this market presents a great opportunity for collectors. I’m sure many of us have items that we have held onto because the value you could get from selling was sufficiently less than when you bought to justify it. Now is a good time to be selling things that at other times would be a hard sell.
I’ve sold off nearly all my US non-gold slabs and bought gold with a numismatic premium beyond bullion. Sure, some of it may go down in value but it has a better chance of surviving in value than the lower end stuff I had before. Plus it’s a lot easier to keep track of.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Nothing shows how over the top auctions have become like last night's Heritage Older Holder auction. I tracked 7 stunning coins that I would have been thrilled to own. Never saw so many gold CAC's in one auction. Three were over my max when I went to bid. I went 0 for 4 on the ones I did put a bid on. How do I define over the top?
Lot 91307 1881 S Morgan NGC 66 Gold CAC. Price guide for a 66 is around $375-450. Population in PCGS 66 is 15,000 and NGC is 18,000. Obviously high end 66 which is why I bid 67 money which is $1,000.
I got a message last night that it sold for $3,400 ($4,080 BP).
I agree with her.
It’s been great for US stuff I have sold (needed move for a long time) banking well reducing that inventory to a more manageable level. But buying US coins at current level I feel is a high temporary uptick so getting in bid war with some bullish, well off collector inputing nuclear bids my gut tells me no go. Punt.
Hang on to the good stuff, we ain't done yet.
Seems like the dollar is getting cheaper in the eyes of its holders all the time, and Legend needs to catch up a bit.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
That auction was nuts. I had my eye on 6 coins. Got one, and I paid up for it too. Everything else I was just ran outta town on. I went pretty hard at the 82-S in 64PL and that finished for stupid money for what it is.
The nice thing is it reaffirms that, at least for now, I'm taking my collection in the right direction by focusing on PQ coins in vintage holders.
RE that Morgan, I know the underbidder. Guy loved the coin, and I told him I expected it to sell for about $3k, but wouldn't be too surprised if it went higher, but I figured the max was $4k. Looks like my max was $100 off. Some insight for you, though... 15 gold CAC 66's, 1 gold CAC 67. That is RARIFIED air for a Morgan.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Better PCGS NON CAC coins and NGC coins (NON CAC too) sold into beyond moon money prices in the auctions.
[...]
Value returning to the non CAC coins has interesting ramifications.
No doubt the market is very strong, but there are still good opportunities. For example, the last round of Simpson patterns sold at ANA were not especially strong. Nor were some of the most expensive coins in the Heritage sale. Perhaps no coincidence that there have been lots of patterns and seven figure rarities on the market in the past year, while other things have largely dried up.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I was going to say the same thing about last night. I watched 12 different lots. The one lot I was the least interested in sold for a fair price otherwise everything else was sold significantly higher than book. It’s crazy right now.
I really wanted the 85 CC Morgan in a 64 with a gold CAC sticker but I am not paying 66 money for it when there are so many 65 CACs around for less money.
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Gold CAC goes two grades up, that's just the way the market is right now. Almost universally. Last gold CAC I sold was a common date rattler walker in 65, I got just shy of 67 money for it.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Prices wouldn't be so high if she would stop bidding against herself...
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
Jeez, wonder what my 1939 Gold CAC PF-66 Walker with a fair amount of cameo would go for now? I have a small handful of other gold CAC coins, hmmm.
I have sold some coins earlier in the year, the Morgans were by far the easiest to sell. Nothing rare or super high graded or monster toned, just decent coins. Sold all at least even or more than what I paid.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Disagree.
Dealers will behave according to what the market will bear.
There is more accessible information now then there ever was before, this market will be more resilient.
CAC gold sticker was hot pre-pandemic.
It's not just coins either. Collectables across the board have been hot. People are spending ridiculous prices for VHS tapes for goodness sake. A few dealers I follow attribute it directly to investors and speculators. It strikes a very similar note as the run-up in the 1980s when equity investors invested heavily in the coin market... and we all know how that ended.
Amazing, I just won an error coin auction as I have been outbid on the last 20 times I tired on other error coin lots.
I only paid 3 times what the coin is worth if it was not "Rainbow Toned" which it is
There's a... very interesting video posted by Karl Jobst on Youtube about the video game market right now that ties into the coin market of the 1980's, kinda loosely. Worth a watch, I'd link it but it mentions a few major players in the coin market and that makes me nervous about posting it.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
It is not that price is insane. It is inflation very high. Before COVID I spend about $10 for a lunch now I have to spend $18 to $20.
Is it too much to ask for $460-500 $20 Liberty Double Eagles like back in 2000? Just one auction, please.....
Always fun searching Heritage archives and seeing those prices on commons.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I got an AU-53 1880 $20 in an old NGC fatty for $500 back in those days. Scarce date for almost no premium.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
The NGC fatty slab is probably over $500 now without the coin being taken into consideration.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Uhh, you can buy fatties for cheap still, all over the place. Some dealers may ask harebrained premiums for 'em but they aren't usually getting 'em. I may be misinterpreting what you're saying though.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I used to buy about 12 coins a month from all areas of numismatics, now I am lucky to get 1 or 2 every few months. It's crazy.
Comic books and action figures are also crazy and have been for years.
So I have moved more into autographs & and certain eras that are quiet, for now.
There was only one saint I wanted from the ANA auction & I was following it all day.
When it came down to the auction, I kept pushing the button.
I'm thinking to myself, no way this guy is a bigger idiot than me.
I was wrong
My Saint Set
I was targeting 2 coins that I was fully expecting, and was ready, to pay up for. I figured that $3500 and $6000 were top end, not going that high, estimates. First sold for $6000 and second for $11000. I was underbidder for both.
Now you tell me this, after I sold a bunch of nice coins via the BST. I could have had a V8.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I also watched some of the auction last night, some very strong money indeed. I had to go over what I wanted but did win one lot that I had my eye on and one other that caught my eye while watching. I'm sure I overpaid for both but hopefully not too much.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
When 20% gets you 100%
I guess the 1 thing that shocked me watching some of the auctions was the strong prices details/problem coins were selling for!
“No doubt the market is very strong, but there are still good opportunities. For example, the last round of Simpson patterns sold at ANA were not especially strong. Nor were some of the most expensive coins in the Heritage sale”
Agree with Andy. Great opportunity to pick your spots. I recall getting outbid on a pattern I always wanted nearly 17 years ago. It fetched between $35,000-$40,000 at its last auction appearance back then. Simpson even upgraded it between then and now. I figured the coin might likely cost me $50,000+ in this hot market. Was very pleased to win it, all in, between $25,000 -$30,000.
Of course, Simpson wasn’t hurting with the prices he obtained on many other coins. Legend mentions 2 SLQ wild prices. That 1928 at $120,000, I seem to recall buying it for JHF in a pre-Long Beach auction for around $8,500 when I was building JHF’s World Class set. JHF knew he “stole it” at that level. Bad weather resulted in at least one major SLQ dealer missing the auction all-together (it happens). I won that 1920-D MS68 at a Heritage Fun sale for JHF stretching on his $100,000 estimate of what he hoped I could win it for. If I recall correctly, it had sold for around $30,000 the prior time it appeared at auction! I paid a little over that level to get it (and not come home empty handed on a coin JHF really wanted) and it resold by Stacks in the very low $200,000’s when I sold off JHF’s SLQ set through them (where Simpson obviously gobbled it up). Now, it’s closing in on a $400,000 coin not too many years later (and the + upgrade didn’t hurt either).
So, again, I think it’s all about picking your spots. And finding the $8,500 coins of today that will fetch $120,000 within the next 15-20 years. They are out there!
Wondercoin
And finding the $8,500 coins of today that will fetch $120,000 within the next 15-20 years.
I'm not going to care about fetching $120K on any coin, 15-20 years from now.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
I was not the winning bidder on this coin, nor am I a crackout guy, but did you take a good look at it? The gold sticker does not mean it is no more than a high end 66 or a 67, I would not be surprised to see this coin end up in a 68 slab in which case it would not have been "over the top", it would have been a very good deal for the buyer.
Food for thought - in most any auction you are likely bidding against people who are novices, people who are collectors who intend to keep them as is, dealers who are looking to resell them and experts who have viewed the coins and are considering them only for upgrade shots.
Coin Rarities Online
Particularly with respect to the “Food for thought” portion, where’s the “Strongly agree” option?!
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Most collectors complain when the market is soft. Most collectors complain when the market is hot. It seems most collectors just like to complain.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Depends if you are a selling or buying. I like a soft market as I am in the accumulation phase. Soft market complaints come from dealers more than collectors. High price complaints come from collectors, not dealers.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Some people are never happy
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
People like rising prices because it feels better to upgrade. It doesn’t matter as much if you are buying pieces with no plan to upgrade.
To the extent I see either, I see a lot more dissatisfaction on coin forums from flat or lower prices.
Personally, I attempt to get value for what I paid when I buy it. But I never became a collector to make money off of it. I made good money off of my South African collection but it was purely by coincidence.
I'm also in the accumulation phase which is part of it but if I was more interested in my collection appreciating than what I can buy with my budget, I'd spend my time and money elsewhere. I'm not interested in collecting "downward" either f I am priced out of my current primary interest.
I don't find more than a low fraction of coins remotely interesting enough to make even the current financial commitment I have now, much less a far larger one. If I did that and it lost noticeable proportional value, I'd be dissatisfied.
One thing I find interesting is that several posters who have disagreed with both of us can buy practically any coin they want. They aren't going to be priced out of what they want to buy like most everyone else may be. Well, I don't have that luxury.
One good thing about high prices is that it keeps me laser focused on only buying coins that I really want. I don't mind paying strong money for a great coin that I've been searching for for years.
Okay, another question, now that we are here, do people want prices to stay where they are or go back to pre-Covid levels?
Good point. Stronger prices can help build more focused collections.
You probably already know my answer. I will take Pre-COVID prices on what I am trying to collect. I have patience and believe things will return to normal soon. I am already shut out of this weeks GC auction. My Sunday night is free.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Going by examples of collectibles in the Heritage "Intelligent Collector" magazine almost....(almost) leads me to wonder if collectible coins might be moving somewhat into "art."
Coin cabinets have been popular items of wealth for many hundreds of years.
If coins make a "prestige" status, the race could just be starting.
Well...almost.
How's that for wobbly prediction?
I think this is counterintuitive. Upgrading in a rising market will cost you more money than a flat market. You’ll get more money for the coin you are upgrading but your new coin will cost you even more money and if the market falls you’re in worse shape.
I have always viewed coins as "art"
Eye appeal matters.
Alot of assumptions are out there. For instance, "prices are expensive now". We may look back in 5 years and find today's prices cheap.