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P. S. A. after the avalanche
Historicalwood71
Posts: 518 ✭✭✭
Who says we won't be Right back where we are after this flood? I'm starting to think it might just be even worse after this opens back up. Think of all the orders " waiting" to be sent in. Lol, I hope that day it's announced.... They better be prepared for it lol. Thoughts?
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I'll run your ideas upstairs and let you know what they think.
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Great. Tell them to be ready. And maddux... You were my favorite pitcher
Thank you, I'm my favorite too!
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Maddux was the best! Seen him play at Turner field, Fulton. A lot of people think I'm maddux believe it or not. Been mistaken for him several times. Don't help I'm wearing a Brave's hat lol. I had one guy ask me for my autograph in Atlanta. My wife started laughing. We really do look just Alike
Scary thought. It seems like a large 100 card plus sub currently has around a one year turn around time. If they get flooded again at that point the turn around time could be closer to 2 years.
I wish there was a way for them to make a massive new hire push, possibly create a PSA graders school or graders certificate program. I don't know, just something to meet the demand.
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W won't be seeing any price points that will encourage a lot of submissions for years Perhaps $50 we might see?
I’d be surprised to see anything lower than $100 by years end.
Lol yes indeed! And they should be prepared for it. Think of all the holdbacks from grading? That's a massive amount I'm sure. It's going to hit like a ton of bricks the first day. I bet we're going to see the same results. I'm thinking even if the price is higher. We can only hope for 3 more facilities 😂
There's not going to be a 3 facilities. There's not going to be any more. If there was, it would have already happened. It's not total rocket science.
I don’t think there will be an avalanche; PSA already stopped the cards from coming in to just an incredibly valuable per card trickle. And cards will continue to come in at $200 per.
Plus, you still have a massive backlog of cards to grade at lower price points that are already there - many of which already contain upcharges with time probably increasing that percentage - that also requires time and effort to grade.
As such, when $200 is no longer ‘flowing’ you open the next tier to drop it a little and work that one to death, too.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Impatient people will pay more eventually.
The only (continued) avalanche will be more money in Newport Beach.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I am thinking of something like putting an allocation on how many cards you can send in a month. That would help a ton.
Total rocket science would apply here. Don't know how you think that. How do you know this? It will be another avalanche! Rocket science =3 facilities. Till dis day lol, we are backlogged..."till dis heeya day!" Noeswatimsayn dawg?
Wheaties, I like you. But I disagree. It doesn't make any since to have customers waiting for years for graded cards. They make a lot of money 💲💲
It only makes since to open up more facilities. Is it that hard??? I think this will not end anytime soon. If psa wants more money to grade after backlog... Build it and they shall come. Too much waiting will drive customers elsewhere.
And may I asked what month you were born?
People are already waiting a year.
SGC has no backlog.
I would love another facility.
Just trying to think like a revenue driven business.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I am about to hit one year of waiting since mine were accepted. ONE YEAR. Mine are part of a group sub that hit the grading stage two months ago. TWO MONTHS AGO. This is crazy. I don't see myself sending in to PSA for a very long time until they can begin handling the volume of orders/workload in which I don't see happening anytime soon.
As far as increasing relative volume of subs per stage of rollout goes, it seems advantageous that PSA has an example to observe before going through the steps themselves. I don't sub items to SGC, but obviously a lot of people do, and they are a reputable, comparable company. They recently made the announcement that they had caught up on all their backlog, and went from being closed to new subs, to opening the option of $75/per, and then later reduced the cost to $30/per, with plans to continue reducing price back towards where they were at when operations were at more what we were all used to. So, there is possibly valuable data to be gained by PSA by watching the SGC operations example as far as how much increase in grading orders comes along with price reduction. SGC will almost certainly not make their order volume available, but if customers report their observed turn-around-time on orders for the $30 rate vs the $75 rate, then maybe it gives a rough idea of how much things might slow down with incremental price corrections? Just a thought.
the only thing that really matters is do people keep submitting almost every card produced in each subsequent year. look at the subs they are starting to hit posted regularly by blurry as psa catches up. majority is 2018-2020. this is the majority of the backlog in quantity(yes other years are backlogged but mostly because of the vaults full of ultra modern that needs to be graded). if these years remain profitable to submit everything at lower price points, PSA will not get back to lower price levels that we used to see for standard rates. specials will be the only option to throw a bone to their customers who have been with them for more than the last few years. if these modern cards are no longer profitable, then there should be a return to normalcy due to the increased capacity that has been added
The market going back to normal (pre covid) levels will help the avalanche bit be as lethal for PSA.
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fanatics says “good luck with all that”.
I would like to think that during this time PSA has improved its processes and is in incorporating technology to improve their efficiency and will be better positioned to manage the demand.
Nat Turner and Steve Sloan have stated on numerous occasions that new facilities are already in the works. There will be new PSA facilities.
^ yes, i thought that was common knowledge at this point.
Hope one of em is in Kansas City; I’d totally apply if the salary was right 😁
As long as we're putting in requests, one for Canada eh
and while there seems to be a consensus that things are stalling in the poppage thread, i can assure that it isnt. folks have to keep in mind that the ctd tracker did not include group subs. so the sense that economy being cleared out kinda gave a false sense that other levels should be full steam ahead. which they are, they are just knocking out the group subbers orders now. if one so chooses, check one of the group subbers sites. poppage info is posted daily. its crazy what they are pumping out compared to years past.
a lil tmi there, but i guess where im going with all this is, while grading standards have shifted, you have to give them credit for knocking out the direct customers first, closing things down to stop the madness, actually hiring new graders/support staff, adding new technology, adding new locations and so many other things to help prevent a tsunami again. not only that, but daily, weekly & monthly output levels continue to increase. theres absolutely no denying that.
i tried to convey with several estimates in the poppage thread a while back that stuff still being subbed when open would still take about a year’ish. and they are literally just getting to the stomach of that first price increase influx. they still have that second one to slay. so patience is key here. nothing happens overnight. especially when we are talking about handling and storing tens of millions of dollars worth of cards. and trust me, they know what awaits with each tier opening back up. until the new facility is open & systematic division of those tiers announced, the lowest of the sub levels will remain closed. it sucks, but also responsible.
I think they should first open it up to folks who are members. There should be some type of loyalty, or just a thanks. Let us sub first for 6 months or so. this would keep the avalanche down some
I will also put in a request, for the New England area - further north than the New Jersey office.
I could go for a career change.
don't think that helps, the submitters who caused a big part of the rush are members. wouldn't be much of an easing.
😂 Some of us forget
I hear ya man. I still prefer a PSA label than anything! I bet my life a southeast coast facility would do wonders!!! 👍🥊💲
That’s why YOU (and me) are part of the problem.
We just keep telling PSA…
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Dang right my man 😂! 👍
Never said there will not be an avalanche. Just never thought there will be other facilities because that thought has been out there for a long time. But we can hope.
Todd,
We shall see. I think it would be a great idea and I hope so. Something needs to happen because USPS at Newport Beach could not even handle their portion of this process.
We shall see.
And what evidence do we see of that after almost 6 months?
drastic monthly output increases?
At $200 a pop do you really think the madness will continue?
I do. And I'll tell you why....
Look at just this board and see all of the submissions. People with 100 plus cards in one order. That's a ton of money no matter the service level. Now, think of them downsizing about 20 or so cards to make up for price hike. That's still Gunna be an azz of cards. I'm not saying who's wealthy or not here, but people will still find ways to send. No Matter the cost.
Before this you could send a hot rookie in for grading and flip it for a tidy profit. A year waiting for grading that rookie might crash and be cut. So not only speculation on rookies you have to pray on grading if you choose PSA.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Of my last 100 card order I would have literally submitted zero of those cards at $200/card...
ditto
I have to much S**t; so if you working on sets or are a player/team collector, send me your want list, with conditions desired. Keep in mind I have a another job so please allow me a few days to respond.
Methinks by the time PSA is ready to reopen regular services the hobbys/cards market already moved on to something or somewhere else...graded cards/submissions then will be out of sight and mind....maybe 2023-24?
Yes, but how has yours and the collective image of PSA changed based on How they have managed this? Throughput increase is a big piece, but not the only piece of this. Damaged cards, grading standards changing, communication spotty at best.
At what point does their eventual overcapacity move them closer to thr smaller companies that are achieving 1 to 3 month TAT for 20 to 35 a card? It will have to be both, as very few people are going to go through waiting 9 to 12 months again.
This I hope is their end point mid next year- better quality of a high throughput at a reasonable price and TAT as some of the others are managing right now.
absolutely & completely valid points.
Ok Jay, Blurry. I get it. But that's you! Some people have money to burn lol. I'm not one of them. If the price was lower or even half, it would still be an avalanche. I can get on the train with grades, but I can't get on the train with turnaround times. Great in depth response from you guys! Glad to hear that from one of the biggest submitters! 👍
I am in no way shape or form one of the biggest submitters, I do it as a hobby and in the last couple years been using it partly as an income source to further fuel said hobby. I focus on hockey RC's 1990 and up. If as you say they only reduce the $200 current lowest level to $100 I probably have less than a dozen cards I would consider submitting out of about 200 waiting to go out. It's simple economics at play, I can't imagine anyone throwing $100 at a card that is at best worth $50-$100 in a PSA 10 holder, it doesn't make sense, no matter how rich you may be.
The hope is that they eventually find some way to bring back submitters like me, but I am beginning to think that is now much further away than I initially thought (later in 2022). $20 value subs need to return to maintain long time customer loyalty, and even then they would have to throw us a bone with some sort of quarterly specials to clear out our growing sub piles.
The hobby will have to suffer a massive bubble burst to destroy the current valuations for grading to return to the way it was, i.e. bulk deals for under or even around $10. Will that happen? Who knows...I for one wouldn't be to crushed if it did because it will unfortunately affect collectors of ultra modern basketball, baseball and football way more than hockey folks like me.
@Historicalwood71
and i need better grading consistency and handling before i sub at any level right now. w/ new graders, consistency is a natural thing to initially have issues with. however, ive had several cards in several different subs come w/ dinged and pinched corners. and another sub had smudges and fingerprints on roughly 40ish outta the 100 or so cards in it.
heard rumblings that new jersey is the place.