Cape Coral Observations

Boosibri

Well...I think the consignor must be extremely pleased at the prices realized.

Some issues reached crazy heights nearing $100k. I can only recall the Lissner Coquimbo Peso and various 1732-Mo 8 Reales as crowns which have eclipsed $100k. I am sure that there are others, but not many.
- Hookneck in 65 @ $96k after selling for $27k in the D. Moore sale. (D. Moore must be a bit peeved)
- Maximillian Peso @ $96k. Both coins selling to the same collector of Mexican coins

Lesser graded but higher quality coins for the same type really showed how quality brings $$$
- 1734/3 Mexican 8 Reales in 64 at $33.6k!. The next lot, a 1735-Mo 8R in 65 reaching $31.2k clearly showed the difference in quality. That 1735 had been on and off the market for a decade until finding a home in Cape Coral per the observations of one astute dealer.
- 1847/6 CAR 8R in 64PL at $21.6k, the 66* CAR sold for $28.8k. Based only on grade that spread should have been much wider. The 64PL was quite nice, the 66* was meh.

Patterns did well and many of the pieces were truly outstanding. Perhaps @pruebas can expand more on this grouping
The Guatemalan 1895 pattern Peso (Millennia) was very nice but wow, $66k!
The Brazil Soho (Goodman), Ecuador (Lissner), Matte Proof Caballito, Peru Sol all did very well and are exceedingly rare.

I enjoyed hunting the provenances of a few pieces which were not disclosed in the descriptions
- 1837 Nueva Granada 8R noted as ex. Millennia is plated in Norweb and noted as ex. Virgil Brand. I bought this lot for a seemingly good deal at $5k. A lesser but same graded piece sold for $5.7k in the Stacks sale the preceding day.
- The 1804 Guatemalan in 63 was noted as M&E sale 61...come on, that is Archer Huntington

The lesser coins in the sale which you could just as well imagine in a HA weekly auction were carried by the broader strength of the collection. This was most evident to me in the more modern coins and Colonial Portraits in low/mid MS.

Good values... well hard to say and I am biased since I bought it. I thought the 1867 Chilean 1 Peso, a rare coin and likely the second finest behind the Millennia specimen striking reaching $33.6k after selling for $27k plus juice (~$33k) was great value. I would also call the patterns good value given the rarity of the pieces and the once in a decade opportunity to acquire them, even if the prices were strong.

What are your observations?

bidask

Excellent observations.

I was present at the Millenia auction when the owner of the Cape Coral Collection bought many of those crowns offered. We had dinner together one evening at the ANA last week......he has a good eye and holds long term...an important consideration for those who 'invest' in coins.

I don't know who bought the 1824 hookneck in 65 and the maximilian peso....anyone know? Good that there other buyers of top tier coinage like this and it did NOT surprise me that this coin went for 96k....

It also did not surprise me that the N 64 hookneck went for over 26k. Nice ORIGINAL lower graded hooknecks look like bargains in the XF-AU grade level .

I actually thought the Uruguay Montevideo 1844 peso in NGC 64 plus was a bargain at just over 10k and actually liked it better than the same crown in 67....at least for the money.

The Cuba 1915 Proof PCGS 65 peso was beautiful and probably worth the 15k price paid.

The 1884 GA AH 8 reales in P 66 brought a very decent price for a common date in uncommon condition ...making feel pretty good about P66 coins in my own collection.

I was also the underbidder on the 1889 Paraguay peso in NGC 66 ..a stellar coin...I had never seen one that highly graded and certainly another 'investment" coin. Wonderful coin.

If i was only in my 40's ...sigh

I also thought the 1814 LM-JP MS66 NGC 8 reales went for reasonable money at 4.5 k.

I did buy this crown ...only 2 in this grade ...it doubled in value since a speciman last auctioned in 2007 in NGC 65.

coinkat

I suppose I have a few simplistic observations:

-Do not underestimate shifts in collector interests as over time as rarities... whether condition rarities... quality for the grade rarities... that are not seen or readily available are offered.

-Perhaps even more important and often not information that is easily captured or available is the participants. Coins that have the look need the right audience to bring the hammer prices that were witnessed here.

-The auction venue is more significant today than ever before; and

-While there were surprises in connection with the hammer of certain lots, it begs the question how often these coins will ever be available and whether the valuations over time will match similarly situated US Coins. And that remains to be seen. However, there may be more upside here which may be the biggest long term shock...The new sticker price based on all of the above.

Boosibri

My other big observation is the importance how photogenic coin is to bring top pricing. Heritage pictures are OK, Stacks is using Trueviews. An ok coin with a great Trueview is going to have a better result than the same coin without the Trueview as more and more buyers are not seeing the coin in hand or are being motivated by the glamour shots.

Abuelo

The difference between the MS65 and the MS64 Hookneck is imperceptible, yet the price difference was scary. People are mad, the pandemic is making many people crazy.

Boosibri

@Abuelo said:
The difference between the MS65 and the MS64 Hookneck is imperceptible, yet the price difference was scary. People are mad, the pandemic is making many people crazier.

bidask

@Abuelo said:
The difference between the MS65 and the MS64 Hookneck is imperceptible, yet the price difference was scary. People are mad, the pandemic is making many people crazy.

The difference was not imperceptible as you claim 😊

It hit you in the face when looking at the strike ….. especially on the eagle feathers upper leg .

Also the luster was easily better and outstanding on the 65

I saw the two coins in hand . Did you ?

Boosibri

@bidask said:

@Abuelo said:
The difference between the MS65 and the MS64 Hookneck is imperceptible, yet the price difference was scary. People are mad, the pandemic is making many people crazy.

The difference was not imperceptible as you claim 😊

It hit you in the face when looking at the strike ….. especially on the eagle feathers upper leg .

Also the luster was easily better and outstanding on the 65

I saw the two coins in hand . Did you ?

The difference in quality was 100% there. The question should be is the difference in quality worth $80k to you as a buyer. To me with my funds the answer is a hard no. To the person who bought it, perhaps his cash flow makes that $80k insignificant. I don't think it is good value, but it is decidedly the best specimen any of us can recall. At the same time, the quality of the 64’s also wasn’t worth $20k+.

Where the F was I at D. Moore when it sold for $27k??????

WCC

@Boosibri said:
The question should be is the difference in quality worth $80k to you as a buyer. To me with my funds the answer is a hard no. To the person who bought it, perhaps

My answer is the same as yours in a similar circumstance, but at a lower financial level. I'm not paying 4X multiple for a one point grade difference, regardless of the eye appeal.

pruebas

@Boosibri said:

Where the F was I at D. Moore when it sold for $27k??????

This is the key statement. Some of us will say that about the Millennia sale, the Gerber sale, the Norweb sale, the '75 ANA Sale and so on. The answer is (perhaps) we were at these iconic sales, but our priorities were elsewhere (due to funds limitations or different direction at the time). You can't kick yourself now for what you didn't know/do back then.

I was at the Millennia sale (via an agent). I viewed all the coins. Yet I was concentrating on certain coins at the time and didn't want to spread my funding too much, lest I miss something that came later in the sale due to depleted funds. Over the next few years, I picked up a few additional Millennia coins that I missed. And I picked up another at yesterday's sale. That's how it always goes.

I was at the 2003 CICF sale where the Cape Coral consigner picked up the matte Caballito pattern Peso. And the $4900 he paid there was a steal, even then. But there were many patterns in that sale and I was focused on rarer issues that probably would not provide an equivalent return if I were to sell them today. (Caballito patterns are not THAT rare.) But I was thrilled to pay $66k yesterday to own that coin as I still did not have an example in my collection.

WCC

i wish I could have participated in the Sellschopp. Ortiz, and Patterson auctions. But I was in university for the first and broke, collecting but broke and not aware of the auction for the second, and broke and not collecting during the third.,

pruebas

@WCC said:
i wish I could have participated in the Sellschopp. Ortiz, and Patterson auctions. But I was in university for the first and broke, collecting but broke and not aware of the auction for the second, and broke and not collecting during the third.,

Well yes, we each have our own iconic sales in our respective areas.

Don't we all wish we knew then (whenever then was) what we know now? Or had sufficient funds? Or had today's collecting interest? Etc.

ChopmarkedTrades

With the comments on Top Pop bonuses and small differences in quality in Cape Coral, I'd like to share the following coin, a 1949 Restrike of the Mexico 1898-Mo Peso. Really historically interesting, as it was struck by both the US and Mexico to support the Kuomintang (the government of the Republic of China) fighting against Communist forces; the Republic had inflated their currency to near-worthlessness several times over, and hard cash was necessary to keep militaries on the march. The US was also responsible for producing restrikes of earlier Chinese pieces as well that are virtually indistinguishable from the originals, and it's likely that many of the finest known of these (today easily six-figure coins in the top spot) are restrikes.

Cape Coral had an example, an NGC MS67. Four are known in the grade at NGC and PCGS combined, with none finer and more than 1,000 examples of the issue graded between them. There are quite a few in low MS through low Gem grades (~200 in 63, ~200 in 64, ~60 in 65, and ~10 in 66, all at PCGS alone), but the last time an MS67 example is recorded as selling was in 2014, when this same coin brought just under $1,250. In the Cape Coral sale, this coin brought $3,840 against an admittedly low $400-600 estimate.

I bought an example in PCGS 64+ for <$200 earlier this year, and of the millions that were struck, it's not unreasonable to think that there may still be more out there raw that could approach similar Gem status in future submissions. Was the Top Pop distinction worth the substantial premium? Tough call to make.

Abuelo

The estimate was ridiculous I think.

JohnnyCache

@Abuelo said:
The estimate was ridiculous I think.

Most of them I would say

pruebas

@JohnnyCache said:

@Abuelo said:
The estimate was ridiculous I think.

Most of them I would say

On purpose. But the errors and omissions in the catalog descriptions are inexcusable.

MrEureka

One of the amazing things about the Cape Coral collection is that the Spanish and Latin American was one of the weakest sections. (Not for lack of effort or funding, but because the coins are just that hard to find.) Wait until you see his German silver!

JohnnyCache

@MrEureka said:
for lack of effort or funding, but because the coins are just that hard to find

Do you think this reality sometimes hurts or hinders the expansion of Spanish and Latin American coin collecting? Or does it perhaps have the opposite effect? People often want what is hard to get.

MrEureka

@JohnnyCache said:

@MrEureka said:
for lack of effort or funding, but because the coins are just that hard to find

Do you think this reality sometimes hurts or hinders the expansion of Spanish and Latin American coin collecting? Or does it perhaps have the opposite effect? People often want what is hard to get.

Overall, I think it hurts. Or I should say that it hurt until recent years, now that you can find almost anything you can imagine on the internet with a little patience. All of the sudden, so many super rare things in all price categories have become collectable for the first time. Like gem Latin American crowns, which had been all but impossible to find without some very serious networking and effort.

Of course, the knife cuts both ways. Now, many things that used to be rare enough to be considered "investment quality blue chips" are now so available that they no longer get any attention, much less respect. For example, US commems and most proof type.

pruebas

@MrEureka said:
One of the amazing things about the Cape Coral collection is that the Spanish and Latin American was one of the weakest sections. (Not for lack of effort or funding, but because the coins are just that hard to find.) Wait until you see his German silver!

He already sold some of the German in one of his prior sales. Multiple Thalers or something like that. Very impressive!

WCC

@MrEureka said:

@JohnnyCache said:

@MrEureka said:
for lack of effort or funding, but because the coins are just that hard to find

Do you think this reality sometimes hurts or hinders the expansion of Spanish and Latin American coin collecting? Or does it perhaps have the opposite effect? People often want what is hard to get.

Overall, I think it hurts. Or I should say that it hurt until recent years, now that you can find almost anything you can imagine on the internet with a little patience. All of the sudden, so many super rare things in all price categories have become collectable for the first time. Like gem Latin American crowns, which had been all but impossible to find without some very serious networking and effort.

Of course, the knife cuts both ways. Now, many things that used to be rare enough to be considered "investment quality blue chips" are now so available that they no longer get any attention, much less respect. For example, US commems and most proof type.

I definitely believe that the lack of comparable quality specimens to equivalent (as a collectible) US coinage limits the price potential.

You're more familiar with it than I am. The majority of early US federal coins have examples in high choice to gem UNC quality. There are virtually no Latin coins in the series I follow which are equivalent to a coin like the MS-66 draped bust small eagle reverse, both technically and eye appeal.

The excessive rarity also poses an obstacle for most of this coinage where a sufficiently large numbers of buyers can compete for it. I think it's a lot less important for crowns and gold but still matters.

7Jaguars

All I can say is wow. Wish I could sell into the teeth of this market. I have no doubt these are rare coins and they most certainly are not my series but I would not be surprised if in coming years some drift down a bit price wise.

MrEureka

@7Jaguars said:
All I can say is wow. Wish I could sell into the teeth of this market. I have no doubt these are rare coins and they most certainly are not my series but I would not be surprised if in coming years some drift down a bit price wise.

Typically, with a sale like this, the truly irreplaceable pieces will become more valuable over time and the replaceable ones will substantially underperform. The trick is to know which ones are truly irreplaceable,

7Jaguars

Well, that is confidence most certainly. I am not at all sure that coins are guaranteed to forever escalate in price or demand. In fact, the other side of the classic formula - supply - may also ultimately be affected as more pieces are enticed out...

WCC

@7Jaguars said:
Well, that is confidence most certainly. I am not at all sure that coins are guaranteed to forever escalate in price or demand. In fact, the other side of the classic formula - supply - may also ultimately be affected as more pieces are enticed out...

Major changes in the external environment which concurrently impact collecting are (a lot) more important that what happens within collecting, most of the time. This should be evident since collectors bring the most important preferences from the external culture into collecting when they become collectors.

The world has been relatively stable for most of my life and I'm 56. I expect a lot less stability going forward, despite that the timing is unknown.

neildrobertson

The world keeps adding irreplaceable pieces into the mix, which dilutes the pool of irreplaceable coins. I've seen how the introduction of the Euro distracted collectors from collecting the eras immediately prior to the euro.