@Mgarmy said:
“ And suppose I legitimately have access to 300 different households? Or 300 people willing to buy one to flip to me?”
If those three hundred households all got one and gave or sold to you which is your second scenario there would be no violation of spirit or letter of the law so to speak. If you made up 300 households…you already know the answer
I'm saying 300 different households. It's pretty easy for anyone who is a member of any associations, including buyers clubs.
My college has 16,000 students. I bet I could get a lot of I offered $50 over to anyone who got one for me.
There is a difference professor, 300 individuals like in a buying club, buying their household limit and selling them to you does not violate the household limit as once purchased the owner can sell to whomever they wish. Different than the one address basement dweller or bot user who circumvents the HHL. You buying 300 coins from 300 buyers does not.
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@Mgarmy said:
There is a difference professor, 300 individuals like in a buying club, buying their household limit and selling them to you does not violate the household limit as once purchased the owner can sell to whomever they wish. Different than the one address basement dweller or bot user who circumvents the HHL. You buying 300 coins from 300 buyers does not.
@MasonG said:
What's the "fair share" of a limited edition item where more people want one than there is to be had?
Not sure there is a reasonable answer as much as there is a challenge in the means of acquisition. If you lose a game because you played poorly or the other team outplayed you that is one thing, however if you lose a game because the other team was juiced up out the their minds ie cheated as in the case of bots…
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True. I want to think they are learning from each less than stellar roll out but who knows
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@Mgarmy said:
however if you lose a game because the other team was juiced up out the their minds ie cheated as in the case of bots…
My "devil's advocate" response:
How would you know you lost out to a bot? Maybe it's the other guy who lost to the bot and you got beaten fair and square by somebody's grandma on dialup with AOL?
You would not know until the mint post mortem and even then you would not know for sure. However bots crashing the site is for all practical purposes a denial of service attack but even then you would not know for sure if it was customer traffic that caused you to get bumped
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Prediction: Even if bots are eliminated with 100% certainty and the mint's website works perfectly, as long as there are more people who want coins than there are coins to sell, there will be complaints of unfairness.
@MasonG said:
Prediction: Even if bots are eliminated with 100% certainty and the mint's website works perfectly, as long as there are more people who want coins than there are coins to sell, there will be complaints of unfairness.
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper? Rationalize away
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@Mgarmy said:
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper? Rationalize away
I'm not sure who this is directed at. The person most likely to utilize the bots are the people who have the bots. I doubt anyone will buy/rent a bot just for this release.
Come on JM..you are too smart for analytic throat clearing semantics…the answer is obvious
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Does anyone think the Mint would retroactively impose the HH limits on the CC and O confirmed orders and put the cancelled Morgan's back in the pool for another release?
@pointfivezero said:
Does anyone think the Mint would retroactively impose the HH limits on the CC and O confirmed orders and put the cancelled Morgan's back in the pool for another release?
(Apologies if this has already been mentioned)
Tim
I think there is zero chance that would happen...
...and would love it if it did.
@Mgarmy said:
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper?
Why does it matter? The mint's mission is to serve the American people (it says so right on their website), of which collectors and flippers are both part.
@baddogss said: @MsMorrisine or anyone else, what's the difference between mintage limit and product limit?
Why are product limits lower than mintage limits?
Thank you
The mintage limit is the total number of a particular coin produced or minted. The product limit (think packaging) is a part of that. A coin could be packaged multiple ways, out of the mintage limit. As with the ASE, the congratulations set is a subset of the total mintage as is the limited edition silver proof set.
@Mgarmy said:
Come on JM..you are too smart for analytic throat clearing semantics…the answer is obvious
No, I think my answer is quite correct. I'm a flipper. I'm not paying $1000 to get a bot for these.
The whole Mint problem doesn't stem from traditional coin flippers. It has come from the "sneaker" buying clubs turning their bots loose in other venues. Once you have the bot, it's just a change in URL to get it buying other things.
So, as I said, the person most likely to use the bot is the person who has the bot.
And, frankly, the flipper who wins the war is the one who hires the people who have the bots. If PFS issues a buy price, all the bot owners will line up to supply them. If Apmex issues a buy price, all the bot owners will line up to supply them.
That is also why I said that people who think the HHL solves anything are kidding themselves. They might very well make it MORE profitable to flip - with or without bots. If you make it harder for Apmex to get product but the demand is still there, they will simply raise their pre-issue buy price. That actually encourages more people to get involved because they have a larger guaranteed profit.
The only thing that eliminates the flipping - bots or not - is if the Mint raised the price to the legitimate market price leaving no room for Apmex or anyone to get involved. If the Mint sold these for $250, flipping would disappear overnight.
@baddogss said: @MsMorrisine or anyone else, what's the difference between mintage limit and product limit?
Why are product limits lower than mintage limits?
Thank you
The product limit is the limit for the coin in the packaging you see. The mintage limit is the limit for the coin itself, regardless of packaging.
So, if the mint issued 5000 coins in red boxes, 5000 coins in green boxes and 5000 coins in blue boxes, the mintage limit would be 15,000 coins while the product limit for each color would be 5000.
@jmlanzaf said:
If the Mint sold these for $250, flipping would disappear overnight.
The flippers wouldn't care, having moved on to the Next Big Thing. And collectors, being rid of them, would complain bitterly.
IMO, anyway- YMMV.
Oh, I didn't say it would make collectors happy. But it would eliminate flipping. As long as flipping is profitable, people will do it. There's a reason no one flips annual sets (most years).
@pointfivezero said:
Does anyone think the Mint would retroactively impose the HH limits on the CC and O confirmed orders and put the cancelled Morgan's back in the pool for another release?
@pointfivezero said:
Does anyone think the Mint would retroactively impose the HH limits on the CC and O confirmed orders and put the cancelled Morgan's back in the pool for another release?
(Apologies if this has already been mentioned)
Tim
A LOT of eBay buyers and sellers would lose their friggin minds if that were to happen.
@nags said:
Having a lower limit disincentives someone setting up a bot. For the proof silver eagle, is it worth it for flippers if you're only getting (3) per transaction instead of 25?
Not really. The issues isn't the HHL but the success rate of getting coins. Of course, it depends on the cost of bots. It seems to be worth it for the telemarketing bots selling extended car warranties. They must make thousands of phone calls before they hook anyone. The hit rate on the bots is much higher for the coins.
It costs $300 to $500 per year for sneaker bots. So, the incremental cost of having them buy coins is pretty much zero as I'm paying by the year and already presumably have my bot.
The sneaker bots can handle up to 500 simultaneous transactions. So that means, even at 3 per HHL, you could get up to 1500 coins if your bot is 100% successful.
The sneaker releases are often HHL of 1, after all.
The HHL is not an anti-bot technique. The software solution, whatever it is, is the anti-bot implementation.
@Mgarmy said:
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper?
Why does it matter? The mint's mission is to serve the American people (it says so right on their website), of which collectors and flippers are both part.
It matters because one set of Americans in this case are cheating aholes….
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@nags said:
Having a lower limit disincentives someone setting up a bot. For the proof silver eagle, is it worth it for flippers if you're only getting (3) per transaction instead of 25?
Not really. The issues isn't the HHL but the success rate of getting coins. Of course, it depends on the cost of bots. It seems to be worth it for the telemarketing bots selling extended car warranties. They must make thousands of phone calls before they hook anyone. The hit rate on the bots is much higher for the coins.
It costs $300 to $500 per year for sneaker bots. So, the incremental cost of having them buy coins is pretty much zero as I'm paying by the year and already presumably have my bot.
The sneaker bots can handle up to 500 simultaneous transactions. So that means, even at 3 per HHL, you could get up to 1500 coins if your bot is 100% successful.
The sneaker releases are often HHL of 1, after all.
The HHL is not an anti-bot technique. The software solution, whatever it is, is the anti-bot implementation.
You sound like part of the problem
Really? Because I discussed the nature of the bots. What exactly did I say that makes me part of the problem?
I don't own a bot. I don't want a bot. I just ran the numbers on the bots. I don't even use sniping software which is, of course, a bot.
Of course, after this ridiculous accusation based on nothing whatsoever, I am hoping that you are routed by bots.
@Mgarmy said:
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper?
Why does it matter? The mint's mission is to serve the American people (it says so right on their website), of which collectors and flippers are both part.
It matters because one set of Americans in this case are cheating aholes….
But the bot people might not be the ones cheating. It really is an interesting question of situational ethics. Who is more moral?
Someone who has 4 accounts using the addresses of 4 children who buys 4 coins for himself.
Someone who has 4 accounts using the addresses of 4 children who buys 4 coins to give to his children.
Someone who has 1 address and a bot.
Someone who has 4 legitimate addresses of relatives and a bot.
Someone with one computer and 4 fake addresses.
Someone with 47 friends who each buy one for him to flip.
Isn't my one address bot person the most innocent? He has an unfair advantage due to transaction execution time, but why should that be unethical? It's not unethical if I have a faster internet connection, is it?
@jmlanzaf said:
I don't even use sniping software which is, of course, a bot.
Sniping software? I think we can all agree there are good bots and bad bots.
Can't we?
I don't know. Everyone is so obsessed with the bots.
What if every bot user only has one legitimate address and buys only the HHL? How is that any different than using sniping software on eBay which a lot of board members use?
Number 6 is the only one in the scenarios presented that is not violating either or both the spirit and/or letter of the HHL, so I will take number six for a 1,000 Alex unless number five with fake addresses only buys the HHL which would then nullify the need for fake addresses
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@Mgarmy said:
Number 6 is the only one in the scenarios presented that is not violating either or both the spirit and/or letter of the HHL, so I will take number six for a 1,000 Alex unless number five with fake addresses only buys the HHL which would then nullify the need for fake addresses
What about #3? He only has ONE address...and a bot.
I'm not really sure that 6 is ethically better than 1 or 2, for that matter. Why is having 47 friends buy me one to flip ethically preferable to me sending one to my mother's address as well as my own?
In your second scenario with a bot user only buying the HHL, while this would definitely give them a competitive advantage in the hunt so to speak it is a lesser evil then an individual who uses the bots to violate the HHL
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Because 47 of your friends all have purchased the HHL. They can do with the coin whatever they want after that to include selling it to you. Which is why buying clubs without the use of bots… is no foul, as the HHL has not been violated (unless individually they have purchased multiples etc)
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@Mgarmy said:
In your second scenario with a bot user only buying the HHL, while this would definitely give them a competitive advantage in the hunt so to speak it is a lesser evil then an individual who uses the bots to violate the HHL
Do the bots necessarily violate the HHL? Isn't the main goal of the bots to increase the chance of success?
The bots do not violate the HHL unless the one utilizing the bots makes multiple purchases which would then violate the HHL if the HHL was one. The use of the bots is a competitive advantage and might violate the TOS but if the HHL is adhered to…
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Wow finally starting to solve bot issues. OK I will play along and see how it goes this Aug.
They thought they had a reasonable game plan or solutions to the ASE/AGE privy debacles and they got smoked by demand /bots/ capacity.
Morgan/Peace 2021 is white hot. I'm not sure there is a fairness solution out there. The marketplace is going to price the issue where it needs to be. Secondary market buyers brace yourselves.
They are trying to project that they are trying to be fair. But....its a hot product.
Excoriated for producing dreck, excoriated for producing hits.
Maybe the Mint is going to make purchasing a coin more difficult. Instead of a few saved billing/shipping addresses and a couple payment boxes to check off, there will be a multiple page questionnaire with ID required, social security number, passport ID, proof of mortgage/rent payments, tax filings, purchase intent, and favorite color.
They should go to biometrics. Other than the privacy police throwing up their hands, a simple fingerprint or face scan from a smart phone would solve the problem pretty quick for sure. Folks that don’t have it can call in 😉
They need to use the technology that currently exists.
@thebigeng said:
Thanks @MsMorrisine !! Its nice to know there are still kind people around..
Respectfully, and in my humble opinion, you received two good answers to your question about mintages.
@MsMorrisine provided specific figures and links for some of the coins discussed in this thread. @jmlanzaf recommended a public resource that you can use to access this information for yourself at any time.
Sounds like you are not familiar with the 'product schedule'. So, with your indulgence, let's 'walk through' an example using the Mint's website.
1) Go to: https://www.usmint.gov
2) There is a 'tool bar' at the top of the 'home page'. Position your cursor over the words "Product Schedule".
3) Doing this will create a 'drop down menu' that displays the years available for viewing. Currently it is 2020 and 2021. Let's try 2021. Place your cursor over the year of interest, and left click.
4) Doing this opens a list of the currently scheduled products for 2021. Scroll down the page to the item of interest. Let's try 21XG, the next Morgan release scheduled for 08/03/21. Place your cursor over the item of interest, and left click.
5) Doing this opens the 'product page'. Here, you can find all of the available information about the product. For example, a description, specifications, 'mintage/product' limits, household order limits, etc.
If you decide to try this and have any difficulties, feel free to message me.
@Mgarmy said:
“ And suppose I legitimately have access to 300 different households? Or 300 people willing to buy one to flip to me?”
If those three hundred households all got one and gave or sold to you which is your second scenario there would be no violation of spirit or letter of the law so to speak. If you made up 300 households…you already know the answer
In my opinion it would be a violation of the spirit of the law. The limits are specifically put in place so that individuals don’t hoard the coins. Your scenario ends up with one individual intentionally manipulating the system (in concert with a host of other individuals that have no interest in collecting the coins) hoard them. How is that not a violation of the spirit of the law?
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
I lean toward your position however it would be impossible to know the minds of the 300
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Comments
What's the "fair share" of a limited edition item where more people want one than there is to be had?
I'm saying 300 different households. It's pretty easy for anyone who is a member of any associations, including buyers clubs.
My college has 16,000 students. I bet I could get a lot of I offered $50 over to anyone who got one for me.
There is a difference professor, 300 individuals like in a buying club, buying their household limit and selling them to you does not violate the household limit as once purchased the owner can sell to whomever they wish. Different than the one address basement dweller or bot user who circumvents the HHL. You buying 300 coins from 300 buyers does not.
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Others would disagree with you.
Not sure there is a reasonable answer as much as there is a challenge in the means of acquisition. If you lose a game because you played poorly or the other team outplayed you that is one thing, however if you lose a game because the other team was juiced up out the their minds ie cheated as in the case of bots…
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Glad the Mint is at least making the effort. Let’s hope the cure isn’t worse than the ailment.
True. I want to think they are learning from each less than stellar roll out but who knows
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My "devil's advocate" response:
How would you know you lost out to a bot? Maybe it's the other guy who lost to the bot and you got beaten fair and square by somebody's grandma on dialup with AOL?
You would not know until the mint post mortem and even then you would not know for sure. However bots crashing the site is for all practical purposes a denial of service attack but even then you would not know for sure if it was customer traffic that caused you to get bumped
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Prediction: Even if bots are eliminated with 100% certainty and the mint's website works perfectly, as long as there are more people who want coins than there are coins to sell, there will be complaints of unfairness.
It's the frigging flippers, don't you know? Lol
"It's always something." - Roseanne Roseannadanna
Who would be most likely to utilize bots? The one two coin collector or the flipper? Rationalize away
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I'm not sure who this is directed at. The person most likely to utilize the bots are the people who have the bots. I doubt anyone will buy/rent a bot just for this release.
Come on JM..you are too smart for analytic throat clearing semantics…the answer is obvious
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With all this chatter about Sneaker Bots, I just had to google it.
That is awesome!!!!😁
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Does anyone think the Mint would retroactively impose the HH limits on the CC and O confirmed orders and put the cancelled Morgan's back in the pool for another release?
(Apologies if this has already been mentioned)
Tim
@MsMorrisine or anyone else, what's the difference between mintage limit and product limit?
Why are product limits lower than mintage limits?
Thank you
Sugar magnolia blossoms blooming, heads all empty and I don't care ...
I think there is zero chance that would happen...
...and would love it if it did.
Why does it matter? The mint's mission is to serve the American people (it says so right on their website), of which collectors and flippers are both part.
The mintage limit is the total number of a particular coin produced or minted. The product limit (think packaging) is a part of that. A coin could be packaged multiple ways, out of the mintage limit. As with the ASE, the congratulations set is a subset of the total mintage as is the limited edition silver proof set.
No, I think my answer is quite correct. I'm a flipper. I'm not paying $1000 to get a bot for these.
The whole Mint problem doesn't stem from traditional coin flippers. It has come from the "sneaker" buying clubs turning their bots loose in other venues. Once you have the bot, it's just a change in URL to get it buying other things.
So, as I said, the person most likely to use the bot is the person who has the bot.
And, frankly, the flipper who wins the war is the one who hires the people who have the bots. If PFS issues a buy price, all the bot owners will line up to supply them. If Apmex issues a buy price, all the bot owners will line up to supply them.
That is also why I said that people who think the HHL solves anything are kidding themselves. They might very well make it MORE profitable to flip - with or without bots. If you make it harder for Apmex to get product but the demand is still there, they will simply raise their pre-issue buy price. That actually encourages more people to get involved because they have a larger guaranteed profit.
The only thing that eliminates the flipping - bots or not - is if the Mint raised the price to the legitimate market price leaving no room for Apmex or anyone to get involved. If the Mint sold these for $250, flipping would disappear overnight.
The product limit is the limit for the coin in the packaging you see. The mintage limit is the limit for the coin itself, regardless of packaging.
So, if the mint issued 5000 coins in red boxes, 5000 coins in green boxes and 5000 coins in blue boxes, the mintage limit would be 15,000 coins while the product limit for each color would be 5000.
The flippers wouldn't care, having moved on to the Next Big Thing. And collectors, being rid of them, would complain bitterly.
IMO, anyway- YMMV.
I look forward to the wailing and gnashing of teeth. If Walmart and Amazon can't eliminate bots, how can the Mint?
Oh, I didn't say it would make collectors happy. But it would eliminate flipping. As long as flipping is profitable, people will do it. There's a reason no one flips annual sets (most years).
It's one of those "Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it" things.
Very little chance…
A LOT of eBay buyers and sellers would lose their friggin minds if that were to happen.
BST references available on request
You sound like part of the problem
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
It matters because one set of Americans in this case are cheating aholes….
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Really? Because I discussed the nature of the bots. What exactly did I say that makes me part of the problem?
I don't own a bot. I don't want a bot. I just ran the numbers on the bots. I don't even use sniping software which is, of course, a bot.
Of course, after this ridiculous accusation based on nothing whatsoever, I am hoping that you are routed by bots.
Thanks @MsMorrisine !! Its nice to know there are still kind people around..
Sniping software? I think we can all agree there are good bots and bad bots.
Can't we?
But the bot people might not be the ones cheating. It really is an interesting question of situational ethics. Who is more moral?
Isn't my one address bot person the most innocent? He has an unfair advantage due to transaction execution time, but why should that be unethical? It's not unethical if I have a faster internet connection, is it?
I don't know. Everyone is so obsessed with the bots.
What if every bot user only has one legitimate address and buys only the HHL? How is that any different than using sniping software on eBay which a lot of board members use?
Number 6 is the only one in the scenarios presented that is not violating either or both the spirit and/or letter of the HHL, so I will take number six for a 1,000 Alex unless number five with fake addresses only buys the HHL which would then nullify the need for fake addresses
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What about #3? He only has ONE address...and a bot.
I'm not really sure that 6 is ethically better than 1 or 2, for that matter. Why is having 47 friends buy me one to flip ethically preferable to me sending one to my mother's address as well as my own?
I'm kind of cheering for the bots now!
In your second scenario with a bot user only buying the HHL, while this would definitely give them a competitive advantage in the hunt so to speak it is a lesser evil then an individual who uses the bots to violate the HHL
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Because 47 of your friends all have purchased the HHL. They can do with the coin whatever they want after that to include selling it to you. Which is why buying clubs without the use of bots… is no foul, as the HHL has not been violated (unless individually they have purchased multiples etc)
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Do the bots necessarily violate the HHL? Isn't the main goal of the bots to increase the chance of success?
The bots do not violate the HHL unless the one utilizing the bots makes multiple purchases which would then violate the HHL if the HHL was one. The use of the bots is a competitive advantage and might violate the TOS but if the HHL is adhered to…
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You are all crazy.
Wow finally starting to solve bot issues. OK I will play along and see how it goes this Aug.
They thought they had a reasonable game plan or solutions to the ASE/AGE privy debacles and they got smoked by demand /bots/ capacity.
Morgan/Peace 2021 is white hot. I'm not sure there is a fairness solution out there. The marketplace is going to price the issue where it needs to be. Secondary market buyers brace yourselves.
They are trying to project that they are trying to be fair. But....its a hot product.
Excoriated for producing dreck, excoriated for producing hits.
Maybe the Mint is going to make purchasing a coin more difficult. Instead of a few saved billing/shipping addresses and a couple payment boxes to check off, there will be a multiple page questionnaire with ID required, social security number, passport ID, proof of mortgage/rent payments, tax filings, purchase intent, and favorite color.
They should go to biometrics. Other than the privacy police throwing up their hands, a simple fingerprint or face scan from a smart phone would solve the problem pretty quick for sure. Folks that don’t have it can call in 😉
They need to use the technology that currently exists.
Respectfully, and in my humble opinion, you received two good answers to your question about mintages.
@MsMorrisine provided specific figures and links for some of the coins discussed in this thread.
@jmlanzaf recommended a public resource that you can use to access this information for yourself at any time.
Sounds like you are not familiar with the 'product schedule'. So, with your indulgence, let's 'walk through' an example using the Mint's website.
1) Go to: https://www.usmint.gov
2) There is a 'tool bar' at the top of the 'home page'. Position your cursor over the words "Product Schedule".
3) Doing this will create a 'drop down menu' that displays the years available for viewing. Currently it is 2020 and 2021. Let's try 2021. Place your cursor over the year of interest, and left click.
4) Doing this opens a list of the currently scheduled products for 2021. Scroll down the page to the item of interest. Let's try 21XG, the next Morgan release scheduled for 08/03/21. Place your cursor over the item of interest, and left click.
5) Doing this opens the 'product page'. Here, you can find all of the available information about the product. For example, a description, specifications, 'mintage/product' limits, household order limits, etc.
If you decide to try this and have any difficulties, feel free to message me.
In my opinion it would be a violation of the spirit of the law. The limits are specifically put in place so that individuals don’t hoard the coins. Your scenario ends up with one individual intentionally manipulating the system (in concert with a host of other individuals that have no interest in collecting the coins) hoard them. How is that not a violation of the spirit of the law?
I lean toward your position however it would be impossible to know the minds of the 300
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