The 1970 and 1996 mint sets would be expected to have larger attrition rates secondary to the inclusion of the 1970-D silver clad Kennedy Half and the 1996-W Roosevelt dime.
“I don't think that the 1970-D half has moved much in price in the last 50 years.”
The roughly 2,000,000 mintage set cost $2.50 back in 1970 I believe. If one had invested that $2.50 in an S&P 500 index fund, I believe that would be worth about $325 today. The Mint set is worth about $15. Stock analysts- please double check my math.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@cameonut2011 said:
The 1970 and 1996 mint sets would be expected to have larger attrition rates secondary to the inclusion of the 1970-D silver clad Kennedy Half and the 1996-W Roosevelt dime.
Yes!
Cutting of mint sets comes in waves caused by the rise and fall of the aggregate values of the coins inside. There is and has long been a steady attrition caused by dealers cutting up cheap sets that aren't worth the cost of shipping, collectors pulling specific coins out for their collections, and cherry pickers cutting sets for gems or varieties. Each of these waxes and wanes as well but are relatively stable compared to the mass blood letting when a set first drops in value below the aggregate value of the coins in it. When the set gets cheap enough thousands of sets at big wholesalers are destroyed to obtain BU rolls. Collectors and small time "wholesalers" also will be cutting sets in mass quantities. Sets like the 1970 didn't experience such an event until the early '80's but did have a higher attrition than most sets in the 1970's because the half dollar was removed for collectors and by wholesalers.
Macro-economic forces and postage rates are critical as well. Most of the ikes and halfs weren't worth the cost of shipping until the 1990's for instance. In 1980 many SMS and pre-'71 mint sets were tossed in the melting pots or dismantled for the silver clad half dollar.
There were lots of sets destroyed in the late-70's simply because they couldn't be sold and the parts couldn't be shipped. Bids dropped to as lot as 85% of face value and ask was meaningless since no knowledgeable owner would sell to it. Almost every year has brought another wave of destruction for one cause or another. Rising prices of BU rolls is the most dramatic cause now but the vagaries of the market wreck havoc with the sets that go to wholesalers. A significant percentage of sets sold at wholesale prices end up being dismantled within a few years because there is very weak demand for intact sets and a steady albeit small demand for the constituent coins.
This is mostly invisible even to insiders because most of it happens out of sight. When the TV show sells something like Ike sets they'll need a large quantity in a short period and prices will soar briefly but out of most peoples' sight. Then it will settle back down because there has always been a surplus of sets flowing into wholesalers compared to the demand for the sets and pieces. But I believe escalating wholesale pricing is simply prelude to finding the demand has finally exceeded the supply. The sets already sold are mostly gone and most of the remaining supply belongs to original buyers of whom few survive.
@rec78 said:
I don't think that the 1970-D half has moved much in price in the last 50 years.
I bought a 1970 mint set at the height of the market at $55 about 1977 because it had a beautiful PL half and the nicest small date I'd ever seen. There was a time in the mid-'90's when you could pick up the entire set for less than $5 and in those days most of the small dates were still with them.
@wondercoin said:
The “breakup” / destruction of these mint sets has taken place primarily in the past 10-20 years. I wasn’t watching the Moon Landing in 1969 and turning my channel to the coin show thereafter. Nor, was I doing that any time in the 70s. But, I sure was watching those date run Mint set offerings that included the “highly sought after” state quarter mint sets in the early 21st Century. And, for every mint set run sold for a couple decades on these TV shows and elsewhere, one 1969 and one 1996 set was pulled away from their original owner to fill the order.
I believe your assessment of just how difficult it is to find 1969 mint sets vs. 1996 mint sets is a bit off the mark. First, we started with almost 350,000 more 1969 mint sets as compared to the lower mintage 1996 mint sets. Last year, by way of example, I believe the mint set mintage was a scant 213,000 sets! In 2018, I believe it was less than 254,000 as well. 350,000 extra sets is a lot of sets, that as you suggest with 1996 figures, takes about an entire generation to dispose of in one manner or another.
On top of that, NGC’s “21st” most desirable modern coin (per their first Top 100 rankings) is offered inside the 1996 mint set (PCGS’ “88th” Top Modern coin as well). An incredibly significant reason why the 1996 mint sets are routinely broken up as compared to the 1969 mint sets that are not broken up for any such additional need.
Hence, at a minimum, I would think the chances of finding quantity deals of 1996 mint sets is roughly equal to the chances of finding quantity deals of 1969 mint sets. But, just for the fun of it, starting next week, I will run buys for fresh groups of both dated sets and compare what I am getting in of each for the remainder of the year.
That would make a remarkable experiment but I'd expect the '69 to be overrepresented by about 25% due to the price increase in the last year. I'll also predict 65% of these will be tarnished and 80% if you advertise for them.
We're best at seeing the things that we know about or expect.
If you offer bid for every set you see I'd wager you'll get about twice as many '96 sets as '69. But when all is said and done for every nice attractive '69-D half dollar you get you'll have about 75 nice '96-D's.
“If you offer bid for every set you see I'd wager you'll get about twice as many '96 sets as '69. But when all is said and done for every nice attractive '69-D half dollar you get you'll have about 75 nice '96-D's.”
This, of course, depends on how you define “nice” 96-D’s. It might surprise you to know an MS68 coin is still about a $400 coin. The pop is 0 above MS68 for 1996-D. Obviously, I would love Lauren to grade an MS68+ pop 1 50C 1996-D coin and it is certainly possible one can be located during these times. The “hunts” can be incredibly exciting and rewarding, but can severely impact one’s vision over time.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I don't see retirement coming by selling that quarter, and who knows how much demand there will be for it in the future
Don't give up hope. People have been saying that three cent nickels are underappreciated, too, and due to be noticed- any day now, for sure.
This is an example of a series which has had a very low collector preference from the beginning. The reason is essentially identical to the coins discussed in this post. It's the coni attributes and it isn't a coincidence.
@wondercoin said:
“If you offer bid for every set you see I'd wager you'll get about twice as many '96 sets as '69. But when all is said and done for every nice attractive '69-D half dollar you get you'll have about 75 nice '96-D's.”
This, of course, depends on how you define “nice” 96-D’s. It might surprise you to know an MS68 coin is still about a $400 coin. The pop is 0 above MS68 for 1996-D. Obviously, I would love Lauren to grade an MS68+ pop 1 50C 1996-D coin and it is certainly possible one can be located during these times. The “hunts” can be incredibly exciting and rewarding, but can severely impact one’s vision over time.
I'd say just nice attractive well struck coins with a minimum of scratching. About half of '96-D's in mint sets will make the grade. When first issued about 25% of '69-D's in sets would be so nice but now they are almost all tarnished. A lot can still be recovered with an alcohol bath but every year fewer and fewer can be. It's much easier to sell these for melt than it is to clean them and this is why there are more of these on the market right now; they are being sold for melt but most are not being melted. The price of this set is depressed because every buyer knows that the coins are often ruined and he'll be shipped the worst rather than the best. Combine this with the fact all the catalogs underreport the value of the coins which suppresses the demand and the set trades for a mere $5.25 which is mostly just its melt/ face value.
Ironically I saved a bunch of these I bought back in the '80's. I had bought a large accumulation and knew there would be a demand for intact sets. These were nice pristine sets in the original packaging but I had cherry picked them utterly. Despite have pretty good storage all these years every single set was ruined and many sets had every single coin ruined. They cleaned up nicely due to the good storage conditions but few of the coins were worth saving because most of the coins were ugly to start with. I'll sell the silver, a few BU rolls, and with the face value of the coins being spent they'll be worth $5.25 per set. It was just a great deal of wasted effort and opportunity costs.
Even sets stored under the best of conditions are affected. I always figured that coins stored in safety deposit boxes would be fine but this is hardly the case. The primary determinant of whether a mint set coin is tarnished or not is its date; the mint set packaging used that year. '69 and '70 are the worst but every date has at least a few damaged coins.
I question whether there will ever be significant demand for these issues to the point of increasing the value of second tier coins in any meaningful way.. The supply has undoubtedly decreased, but to what extent has to be nothing more than a guess.
I just looked at the PCGS Registry for clad quarters. There are a relatively low number of sets. For a few grand I could have a top 20 clad quarter set, basically all MS66. Once you move into the realm of Wondercoin's set with top pops it's a different story.
Those top coins, whether they are 67-69 will always have their rightful premium, but I can't see any substantially appreciation of the MS64 to one grade below top pop coins.
@nags said:
I question whether there will ever be significant demand for these issues to the point of increasing the value of second tier coins in any meaningful way.. The supply has undoubtedly decreased, but to what extent has to be nothing more than a guess.
I just looked at the PCGS Registry for clad quarters. There are a relatively low number of sets. For a few grand I could have a top 20 clad quarter set, basically all MS66. Once you move into the realm of Wondercoin's set with top pops it's a different story.
Those top coins, whether they are 67-69 will always have their rightful premium, but I can't see any substantially appreciation of the MS64 to one grade below top pop coins.
It depends upon someone's definition of "substantial".
I believe that over 95% of the dates prior to SQ are a Judd R-1 in PCGS MS-66 equivalent grade/quality, which is usually one grade increment below condition census most of the time. I consider this conservative but assuming it's "ballpark" accurate, that's at least 1250 with noticeable multiples for MS-64 and MS-65.
If most collectors collected in a vacuum where they ignored the price of comparatively priced alternatives, it would be one thing. The evidence indicates that buyers of condition census grades do. It also happens on occasion with (slightly) lower quality and specialization, but not otherwise.
This, of course, depends on how you define “nice” 96-D’s. It might surprise you to know an MS68 coin is still about a $400 coin. The pop is 0 above MS68 for 1996-D. Obviously, I would love Lauren to grade an MS68+ pop 1 50C 1996-D coin and it is certainly possible one can be located during these times. The “hunts” can be incredibly exciting and rewarding, but can severely impact one’s vision over time.
The current PCGS count in MS-68 is 41. Gradeflation? I don't know. Some duplicates? Maybe, but the count is not low for a condition census grade.
My assumption is that the dates closer to the start of SQ were saved in much higher number and remain better preserved which many others probably also assume and which leads them to believe that the current count is subject to increase.
“The current PCGS count in MS-68 is 41. Gradeflation? I don't know. Some duplicates? Maybe, but the count is not low for a condition census grade.”
Gradeflation is the “wild card” that the OP hasn’t taken into account in all the prior predictions and assessments here. I recently watched a modern coin add about $18,000 to its resale price (sale over sale) due to just a 1 point upgrade. You don’t need to find new coins for future pop tops if the old coins work just fine. 😉
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@nags said:
I question whether there will ever be significant demand for these issues to the point of increasing the value of second tier coins in any meaningful way.. The supply has undoubtedly decreased, but to what extent has to be nothing more than a guess.
I just looked at the PCGS Registry for clad quarters. There are a relatively low number of sets. For a few grand I could have a top 20 clad quarter set, basically all MS66. Once you move into the realm of Wondercoin's set with top pops it's a different story.
Those top coins, whether they are 67-69 will always have their rightful premium, but I can't see any substantially appreciation of the MS64 to one grade below top pop coins.
The demand is there but there is no supply. If someone wants a nice MS-66 of a date where MS-68 is pop top there will be a few MS-67's floating around but finding them is difficult because they are inexpensive and few in number. But MS-66 is so far out of the money that it's not worth the cost of grading but they can be quite elusive. In some cases even MS-65's will be tough. If you pay a few dollars extra there's a tendency to get something less than you pay for and I know of nobody who advertises to sell the second tier coins ungraded. I've been selling these for 10 or $20 each and they're actually fairly popular. I think a market could be made in them but then where does the supply come from?
There are a lot of factors working against these markets and new demand but it's my contention that this is exactly why the demand has been increasing so slowly all these years. The existing and growing demand is all grass roots. It's caused by many hundreds of people working modern collections buying mostly sight seen and ungraded coins. These collectors are at manty levels from needing mostly MS-66 quarters to trying to upgrade all their dimes to at least XF.
Millions of folders and albums have been sold for moderns and there simply aren't enough nice coins to fill them up with chBU or even nice AU's. The supply is insufficient to support a mass market but these things have a way of working out. Eventually collectors will all realize the price guides have no meaning except in MS-60 and even this has no meaning because there is no wholesale market for MS-60.
There are probably about 40,000 eagle reverse clad quarter collectors now days. This number is still growing rapidly but more importantly, existing collectors are becoming more knowledgeable and sophisticated every day.
@Catbert said:
OP - in guessing your age from your posts, I don't see you being around long enough to realize the anticipated glory of your moderns.
Such is life. I've been waiting a very long time and none of us has unlimited time. I often call myself the 4th clad coin collector.
I expected the market to develop in the '70's or 1980's and it just never did. But then there could be a "perfect storm" of inflation and exploding demand. It doesn't matter as much to me any longer but I'd love to see more people enjoying these coins and knowing my coins are bringing enjoyment and education to future collectors.
I don't think that's how it works. If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
@cladking said:
The demand is there but there is no supply.
Then prices would be higher.
@cladking said:
If someone wants a nice MS-66 of a date where MS-68 is pop top there will be a few MS-67's floating around but finding them is difficult because they are inexpensive and few in number.
If finding them is difficult, that's because buyers aren't willing to pay enough to encourage those who own them to sell.
@nags said:
If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
That's pretty much it. Numismatics is a relatively free market- supply and demand at work.
@rec78 said:
I don't think that the 1970-D half has moved much in price in the last 50 years.
I bought a 1970 mint set at the height of the market at $55 about 1977 because it had a beautiful PL half and the nicest small date I'd ever seen. There was a time in the mid-'90's when you could pick up the entire set for less than $5 and in those days most of the small dates were still with them.
I've cherrypicked a couple dozen 1970 small date Mint sets over the years and sold 'em all as the variety doesn't do anything for me. Same situation applies to the '70-S small date proof sets. One very interesting and somewhat impressive variety is the 1970-S Small/Large date proof cents. Those I like. Cherrying these was not difficult in the time frame you mention and before, especially the Mint sets.
I don't think that's how it works. If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
@cladking said:
The demand is there but there is no supply.
Then prices would be higher.
@cladking said:
If someone wants a nice MS-66 of a date where MS-68 is pop top there will be a few MS-67's floating around but finding them is difficult because they are inexpensive and few in number.
If finding them is difficult, that's because buyers aren't willing to pay enough to encourage those who own them to sell.
@nags said:
If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
That's pretty much it. Numismatics is a relatively free market- supply and demand at work.
I think you are missing the OP's point. You can't buy the plastic because of the cost of the plastic. It's not that there aren't 66 coins out there and not that there isn't demand for 66 coins. It's that no one is going to pay $35 to slab 66 coins because it isn't a $50 coin.
If buyers won't pay what it costs to get the coins into plastic, there really isn't demand, is there?
edited to add... Well, there is demand, just no supply. And therefore, no market. Demand at a price so low that nobody will provide supply is still demand, but it's pretty much irrelevant, though.
@MasonG said:
If buyers won't pay what it costs to get the coins into plastic, there really isn't demand, is there?
edited to add... Well, there is demand, just no supply. And therefore, no market. Demand at a price so low that nobody will provide supply is still demand, but it's pretty much irrelevant,
Try to put together a set of clad Washington quarters in AU. It's impossible. Lol
I also just don't share cladking's enthusiasm for future demand. There may be 40,000 collectors, but 35,000 may be roll hunters who won't pay more than $1 for anything.
@nags said:
I question whether there will ever be significant demand for these issues to the point of increasing the value of second tier coins in any meaningful way.. The supply has undoubtedly decreased, but to what extent has to be nothing more than a guess.
I just looked at the PCGS Registry for clad quarters. There are a relatively low number of sets. For a few grand I could have a top 20 clad quarter set, basically all MS66. Once you move into the realm of Wondercoin's set with top pops it's a different story.
Those top coins, whether they are 67-69 will always have their rightful premium, but I can't see any substantially appreciation of the MS64 to one grade below top pop coins.
The demand is there but there is no supply. If someone wants a nice MS-66 of a date where MS-68 is pop top there will be a few MS-67's floating around but finding them is difficult because they are inexpensive and few in number. But MS-66 is so far out of the money that it's not worth the cost of grading but they can be quite elusive. In some cases even MS-65's will be tough. If you pay a few dollars extra there's a tendency to get something less than you pay for and I know of nobody who advertises to sell the second tier coins ungraded. I've been selling these for 10 or $20 each and they're actually fairly popular. I think a market could be made in them but then where does the supply come from?
There are a lot of factors working against these markets and new demand but it's my contention that this is exactly why the demand has been increasing so slowly all these years. The existing and growing demand is all grass roots. It's caused by many hundreds of people working modern collections buying mostly sight seen and ungraded coins. These collectors are at manty levels from needing mostly MS-66 quarters to trying to upgrade all their dimes to at least XF.
Millions of folders and albums have been sold for moderns and there simply aren't enough nice coins to fill them up with chBU or even nice AU's. The supply is insufficient to support a mass market but these things have a way of working out. Eventually collectors will all realize the price guides have no meaning except in MS-60 and even this has no meaning because there is no wholesale market for MS-60.
There are probably about 40,000 eagle reverse clad quarter collectors now days. This number is still growing rapidly but more importantly, existing collectors are becoming more knowledgeable and sophisticated every day.
Are you still making the same price forecast you did the last time you started a thread on this topic?
If you do not remember, I will point you to it.
If you aren't, then what exactly are you predicting now?
@MasonG said:
If buyers won't pay what it costs to get the coins into plastic, there really isn't demand, is there?
edited to add... Well, there is demand, just no supply. And therefore, no market. Demand at a price so low that nobody will provide supply is still demand, but it's pretty much irrelevant,
Try to put together a set of clad Washington quarters in AU. It's impossible. Lol
I also just don't share cladking's enthusiasm for future demand. There may be 40,000 collectors, but 35,000 may be roll hunters who won't pay more than $1 for anything.
I'm not aware of a single series where the demand is the number implied by the OP. I've estimated 2MM collectors in the past, depending upon someone's definition of "collector". If it's in this vicinity, the preceding classics might have 50,000 to somewhat over 100,000 each. Lincoln cent and Morgan dollar with more.
In the 1960's, the overwhelming percentage were at FV or nominal premiums.
I don't think that's how it works. If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
You're missing my point.
The '72-D quarter is minimally available in rolls and they aren't too bad. But this supply is extremely weak exactly like all clad quarters. It's not nearly as tough as the 1971 and is much tougher than the '80-D which is also scarce in rolls. Most '72-D in rolls that haven't gone bad yet are MS-63 to MS-64. There are too few in MS-65 and higher to be significant. Mint set coins come extremely nice with about 8% in MS-65 and higher. 66's are very "common" and this date mint set is not badly corroded. Attrition on the date is very high but not as high as earlier dates. This leaves thousands and thousands of nice MS-65+ to MS-67-. Very common for a clad quarter. It is the poster child of common MS-66 clad. A quick search turned up only about 10 specimens available for sale ranging in prices from $7 to $45. God knows what this coin is worth but I sell ungraded MS-67's for $15 to $20. With the very weak demand if it could be applied to this coin it is probably about a $5 coin in MS-66.
These that are for sale are just coins that the submitter expected a higher grade but most are selling for less than the grading fees. OBVIOUSLY MS-66 quarters don't have a negative value. You can't take a $20 holder and insert a -$10 coin to sell at $10. The coins are worth at least 25c whether WCC thinks so or not.
The demand is simply not being expressed in the market for the reasons already cited but principally because the price guides dramatically underreport the value. Collectors are very timid in paying $50 for a coin Redbook lists at $5. The '72-D is listed at a top price of $4 and this is the same source that lists old wheat cents at prices that are several multiples of what you can get at wholesale. All the old coins are listed at far higher than market but '72-D quarters are listed at $4. I only buy a Redbook at about 40 year intervals.
If you can't price a '72-D quarter then how does a collector buy one? This is what I mean when I say much of the market is sight seen.
Not every MS-66 or MS-65 modern is as common as the '72-D. Some are tough in nice attractive MS-64 but you can't tell this from any price guide and no modern has a negative value.
I've cherrypicked a couple dozen 1970 small date Mint sets over the years and sold 'em all as the variety doesn't do anything for me. Same situation applies to the '70-S small date proof sets. One very interesting and somewhat impressive variety is the 1970-S Small/Large date proof cents. Those I like. Cherrying these was not difficult in the time frame you mention and before, especially the Mint sets.
I should have paid a lot more attention to proof sets than I did. But I'd spend hours in the coin shop pouring over mint sets and just never seemed to have the time to check proof sets.
“OP - in guessing your age from your posts, I don't see you being around long enough to realize the anticipated glory of your moderns.”
Isn’t that often the case? Justhavingfun predicted for years - excused me- DECADES- that the United States Philippine coin market would explode in value. The only bi-National coins in our Country’s history. He passed away at the end of 2018. The market EXPLODED in early 2020!
It was my great honor to work with him and my son Justin in 2018 in preparing a series of Articles on the USPI market. I think we got through 3 or 4 of the 18 articles we penciled out in our heads and then he passed away unexpectedly. The articles we finished are all published on this site under “United States Philippines”. We had planned 13 or 14 more articles to be written and published in 2019 and 2020. Justhavingfun never lived long enough to see his vision fully materialize.
JHF was the only collector in history that owned the finest known 1894-S Dime (that he sold for just under $2,000,000.00) and the Unique 1907 United States Philippine Peso that he sold for an undisclosed sum to a board member here the year before his death. Even ELIASBERG was never able to own the 1907 Unique Peso in his collecting career and he owned a spectacular collection of USPI coins in his time.
CladKing will likely never see his vision of “moderns” (1965-date) fully materialize either and, to be frank, neither will I. But, you can rest assured he will be remembered for his unwavering position on these great coins!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@MasonG said:
If buyers won't pay what it costs to get the coins into plastic, there really isn't demand, is there?
edited to add... Well, there is demand, just no supply. And therefore, no market. Demand at a price so low that nobody will provide supply is still demand, but it's pretty much irrelevant,
Try to put together a set of clad Washington quarters in AU. It's impossible. Lol
I started my set in 1996 when the states quarters became "apparent". It is almost complete but a few dates are high end XF's. I've rejected upgrades in some cases because the coin was ugly, poorly struck, or had other minting issues such as being made by highly worn dies. I've gone through about 10 rolls a month for many years.
It's getting decidedly difficult to put together a nice attractive VF set. A lot of the key dates are rarely seen and tend to be culls or full of dings from counting machines. Some common dates like the '84-P are tough because the low rims allow excessive damage and lots of dings. You can find an XF easily enough but it won't be pretty.
I also just don't share cladking's enthusiasm for future demand. There may be 40,000 collectors, but 35,000 may be roll hunters who won't pay more than $1 for anything.
A lot of modern collectors are novices, outside the mainstream, or unsophisticated but they are learning every day and their ranks are growing. The number has doubled in the last five years. I simply expect the rate of increase to increase. Partly I expect this because it's in the interest of the hobby but mainly I expect it because every day the coins in circulation (especially quarters) get more and more interesting. The coins are also getting tougher. There are rare coins in circulation and some of these will be collected more widely as time goes by. There are still 25,000 or so type h '72-D quarters for instance. Most of these are in horrid condition but nobody saved them in unc so WYSIWYG. How many of these will be found before the quarters are retired or the last '72-D is worn away or lost?
@yspsales said:
It takes a religious zeal to follow the modern path.
That's the impression I get.
Collecting moderns is similar to the way baby boomers collected back in the early-'60's except we now go through mint ands proof sets instead of rolls from the bank. There were potentially valuable coins in circulation in those days and little did we realize most of the good coins had been removed by the end of WW II.
But herein is the point of the thread; the raw material modern collectors use to find their Gems is never going to be so readily available again. This has been somewhat true for several years because the sets are corroding but now with the wholesale price at more than double face value we'll have little choice but to buy graded coins or raw coins at a substantially higher price. This is because demand has finally exceeded supply. Supply has been decreasing sharply for half a century while demand is increasing exponentially but from a very low level. As coins disappear from the market there will be no supply of overhanging supply from which to restock. Indeed, most dealers don't maintain a stock at all. There is no supply from which they can acquire a stock in case there is walk in traffic demanding moderns.
Without this overhanging supply it is too late for some big dealer to try to acquire a position and disrupt the market. Moderns should be relatively speculator free for some time though, obviously, if prices soar dealers will get speculators to buy "rare" MS-65 '72-D quarters in quantity to "put away for the future". No one will be touting the rarities because they can't get them. Nobody has quantities of things like '69 MS-65 quarters because they were too difficult to find even in 1969 and so many are tarnished now.
If it's a religion, it's just that old time religion back when every coin didn't have to be purchased from a dealer. Perhaps no one found salvation in "holy rolls" but there is a lot of satisfaction in finding scarce and desirable coins on the cheap.
Interesting thoughts presented here.
Makes me want to just look thru the early mint and proof sets that I have stashed away, for some reason or other. I guess that since I don't sell coins, that I am now considered a "COIN HOARDER".
Wayne
@cladking said:
These that are for sale are just coins that the submitter expected a higher grade but most are selling for less than the grading fees. OBVIOUSLY MS-66 quarters don't have a negative value. You can't take a $20 holder and insert a -$10 coin to sell at $10. The coins are worth at least 25c whether WCC thinks so or not.
Utterly ridiculous. I never claimed what you said even once.
@MasonG said: "Indeed, most dealers don't maintain a stock at all."
Dealers will stock coins they have buyers for.
Exactly my point; if buyers do materialize there is no means to stock thousands of dealers. There's no apparent means to prime the pump.
"There is no supply from which they can acquire a stock in case there is walk in traffic demanding moderns."
Sure there is- from the people who currently own them. Offer them enough for the coins, and some of them will sell.
Again, most of the mint sets have been destroyed. The coins from them aren't sitting in collections, rolls, or dealer stocks; they are in circulation. Tens of thousands of sets like "kennedy halves" or "lincoln cents" have been assembled from mint sets and sold to the public but these sets are usually low quality, low value, and sold outside normal numismatic venues. I wouldn't expect to see lots of these streaming into coin shops no matter what.
Almost all the supply of moderns IS mint and proof sets and they are now mostly unavailable because of tarnish and much higher prices on good sets. This especially applies to mint sets. The premium on something like a 1974 mint set has gone up 20 fold virtually overnight. I'm predicting the new higher offer will get very few sets. It will be interesting to see what the response is. I'm expecting higher offers for BU rolls because these made from mint sets exist whereas nice mint sets barely do. If I had any pristine early sets I'd be sitting on them. After 1980 the tarnish is not nearly so ubiquitous.
@MasonG said: "Indeed, most dealers don't maintain a stock at all."
Dealers will stock coins they have buyers for.
Exactly my point; if buyers do materialize there is no means to stock thousands of dealers. There's no apparent means to prime the pump.
Aside from current mint issues, there is no "coin warehouse" dealers can order whatever they desire from. They acquire the coins they sell from various sources as best they can to stock the coins their customers want today. They aren't going to stock coins in the hopes that customers might, some day in the future, materialize and ask for them.
@cladking said:
Again, most of the mint sets have been destroyed. The coins from them aren't sitting in collections, rolls, or dealer stocks; they are in circulation. Tens of thousands of sets like "kennedy halves" or "lincoln cents" have been assembled from mint sets and sold to the public but these sets are usually low quality, low value, and sold outside normal numismatic venues.
Ok- so the gems you seem to be worried everybody is overlooking don't exist. What's the problem again?
“The premium on something like a 1974 mint set has gone up 20 fold virtually overnight.”
The highest bid in the country I see right now is $9 for this set. The set contains $3.83 of face value. Hence, the premium to face value is a mere $5.17 over the past 47 years. The cost on the set from the US Mint in 1974 I believe was $6.00. If the “premium” went “up 20 fold virtually overnight” that means the premium was about 25 cents for 46 years!! But, the Mint charged a premium of $2.17 back in 1974! 😝
If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1974, you would have about $14,807.57 at the beginning of 2021, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 14,707.57%. If you invested the same $100 in these 1974 mint sets in 1974, you would have about $150 right now. Again, $150 value in these Mint Sets today vs. $14,807.57 in the S&P 500. Stock analysts- please double check my math.
Just keeping it real with my 2 cents!
Wondercoin
edited to add... I just raised my bid to $9.25 for this set to become the new high buyer in the land. It can’t underperform the S&P forever! Can it? 😂
P.S. so far in the random test starting this week, I bought:
(4) 1969 “fresh” mint sets
(6) 1970 “fresh” mint sets
(0) 1996 “fresh” mint sets
Tossed in the 1970 date just to make the comparison even more interesting. See a previous posting above of mine for context.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The demand is simply not being expressed in the market for the reasons already cited but principally because the price guides dramatically underreport the value. Collectors are very timid in paying $50 for a coin Redbook lists at $5. The '72-D is listed at a top price of $4 and this is the same source that lists old wheat cents at prices that are several multiples of what you can get at wholesale. All the old coins are listed at far higher than market but '72-D quarters are listed at $4. I only buy a Redbook at about 40 year intervals.
Price guides are obsolete. You keep using this as a explanation but there is no reason to expect any price guide to be accurate. Why would you think it would be for US moderns when it isn't for hardly any other coinage? This coinage sells relatively frequently. Anyone can get an indication of the actual approximate value with a five minute search on eBay or adding a few more minutes searching Great Collections and Heritage.
The amounts discussed in your examples are an alternative to consumption which most people don't give a second thought, even if not affluent. It's a recreational expenditure.
Not to mention, the coins being discussed (high grade/gem/top pop moderns) are not the kind of coins people depend on a Redbook for in order to figure out how much to pay.
Not to mention, the coins being discussed (high grade/gem/top pop moderns) are not the kind of coins people depend on a Redbook for in order to figure out how much to pay.
It's more than that. An example was given of a $4 catalogue value when the coin is worth $50. I have seen PCGS MS-66 1982 quarters sell for $22 on eBay or 3X (and maybe more) than that. Also seen ungraded coins sell for more than $22. This is typical, not unusual. It happens all the time.
How many of these will be found before the quarters are retired or the last '72-D is worn away or lost?
There were 311 million 1972-D quarters minted. It seems unlikely to me that 310.9 million of them will disappear.
They don't have to disappear. It's been 50 years. What percentage of them have worn down below AU? Have you seen how many slick SLQs and Barber Quarters there are?
@jmlanzaf said:
They don't have to disappear. It's been 50 years. What percentage of them have worn down below AU?
Tough to know the answer to that. On the plus side, you can buy an uncirculated piece today, still in mint set plastic, for around $2.50.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think these are exactly rare now or anytime soon. But you don't need 310.9 million of them to "disappear" for the population to have dropped.
I don't think you need to look farther than the price of UNC 1940s Merc dimes and most UNC SILVER Washington Quarters to make a case that there is no need for the clads to make a major move up.
Comments
The 1970 and 1996 mint sets would be expected to have larger attrition rates secondary to the inclusion of the 1970-D silver clad Kennedy Half and the 1996-W Roosevelt dime.
I don't think that the 1970-D half has moved much in price in the last 50 years.
Not exactly rare at 2 million
“I don't think that the 1970-D half has moved much in price in the last 50 years.”
The roughly 2,000,000 mintage set cost $2.50 back in 1970 I believe. If one had invested that $2.50 in an S&P 500 index fund, I believe that would be worth about $325 today. The Mint set is worth about $15. Stock analysts- please double check my math.
Wondercoin
Yes!
Cutting of mint sets comes in waves caused by the rise and fall of the aggregate values of the coins inside. There is and has long been a steady attrition caused by dealers cutting up cheap sets that aren't worth the cost of shipping, collectors pulling specific coins out for their collections, and cherry pickers cutting sets for gems or varieties. Each of these waxes and wanes as well but are relatively stable compared to the mass blood letting when a set first drops in value below the aggregate value of the coins in it. When the set gets cheap enough thousands of sets at big wholesalers are destroyed to obtain BU rolls. Collectors and small time "wholesalers" also will be cutting sets in mass quantities. Sets like the 1970 didn't experience such an event until the early '80's but did have a higher attrition than most sets in the 1970's because the half dollar was removed for collectors and by wholesalers.
Macro-economic forces and postage rates are critical as well. Most of the ikes and halfs weren't worth the cost of shipping until the 1990's for instance. In 1980 many SMS and pre-'71 mint sets were tossed in the melting pots or dismantled for the silver clad half dollar.
There were lots of sets destroyed in the late-70's simply because they couldn't be sold and the parts couldn't be shipped. Bids dropped to as lot as 85% of face value and ask was meaningless since no knowledgeable owner would sell to it. Almost every year has brought another wave of destruction for one cause or another. Rising prices of BU rolls is the most dramatic cause now but the vagaries of the market wreck havoc with the sets that go to wholesalers. A significant percentage of sets sold at wholesale prices end up being dismantled within a few years because there is very weak demand for intact sets and a steady albeit small demand for the constituent coins.
This is mostly invisible even to insiders because most of it happens out of sight. When the TV show sells something like Ike sets they'll need a large quantity in a short period and prices will soar briefly but out of most peoples' sight. Then it will settle back down because there has always been a surplus of sets flowing into wholesalers compared to the demand for the sets and pieces. But I believe escalating wholesale pricing is simply prelude to finding the demand has finally exceeded the supply. The sets already sold are mostly gone and most of the remaining supply belongs to original buyers of whom few survive.
I bought a 1970 mint set at the height of the market at $55 about 1977 because it had a beautiful PL half and the nicest small date I'd ever seen. There was a time in the mid-'90's when you could pick up the entire set for less than $5 and in those days most of the small dates were still with them.
That would make a remarkable experiment but I'd expect the '69 to be overrepresented by about 25% due to the price increase in the last year. I'll also predict 65% of these will be tarnished and 80% if you advertise for them.
We're best at seeing the things that we know about or expect.
If you offer bid for every set you see I'd wager you'll get about twice as many '96 sets as '69. But when all is said and done for every nice attractive '69-D half dollar you get you'll have about 75 nice '96-D's.
“If you offer bid for every set you see I'd wager you'll get about twice as many '96 sets as '69. But when all is said and done for every nice attractive '69-D half dollar you get you'll have about 75 nice '96-D's.”
This, of course, depends on how you define “nice” 96-D’s. It might surprise you to know an MS68 coin is still about a $400 coin. The pop is 0 above MS68 for 1996-D. Obviously, I would love Lauren to grade an MS68+ pop 1 50C 1996-D coin and it is certainly possible one can be located during these times. The “hunts” can be incredibly exciting and rewarding, but can severely impact one’s vision over time.
Wondercoin
This is an example of a series which has had a very low collector preference from the beginning. The reason is essentially identical to the coins discussed in this post. It's the coni attributes and it isn't a coincidence.
With sets and SHQ's, it just adds a few more arrows in my quiver.
Found enough to make it interesting and profitable from a hobby standpoint.
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I'd say just nice attractive well struck coins with a minimum of scratching. About half of '96-D's in mint sets will make the grade. When first issued about 25% of '69-D's in sets would be so nice but now they are almost all tarnished. A lot can still be recovered with an alcohol bath but every year fewer and fewer can be. It's much easier to sell these for melt than it is to clean them and this is why there are more of these on the market right now; they are being sold for melt but most are not being melted. The price of this set is depressed because every buyer knows that the coins are often ruined and he'll be shipped the worst rather than the best. Combine this with the fact all the catalogs underreport the value of the coins which suppresses the demand and the set trades for a mere $5.25 which is mostly just its melt/ face value.
Ironically I saved a bunch of these I bought back in the '80's. I had bought a large accumulation and knew there would be a demand for intact sets. These were nice pristine sets in the original packaging but I had cherry picked them utterly. Despite have pretty good storage all these years every single set was ruined and many sets had every single coin ruined. They cleaned up nicely due to the good storage conditions but few of the coins were worth saving because most of the coins were ugly to start with. I'll sell the silver, a few BU rolls, and with the face value of the coins being spent they'll be worth $5.25 per set. It was just a great deal of wasted effort and opportunity costs.
Even sets stored under the best of conditions are affected. I always figured that coins stored in safety deposit boxes would be fine but this is hardly the case. The primary determinant of whether a mint set coin is tarnished or not is its date; the mint set packaging used that year. '69 and '70 are the worst but every date has at least a few damaged coins.
I question whether there will ever be significant demand for these issues to the point of increasing the value of second tier coins in any meaningful way.. The supply has undoubtedly decreased, but to what extent has to be nothing more than a guess.
I just looked at the PCGS Registry for clad quarters. There are a relatively low number of sets. For a few grand I could have a top 20 clad quarter set, basically all MS66. Once you move into the realm of Wondercoin's set with top pops it's a different story.
Those top coins, whether they are 67-69 will always have their rightful premium, but I can't see any substantially appreciation of the MS64 to one grade below top pop coins.
It depends upon someone's definition of "substantial".
I believe that over 95% of the dates prior to SQ are a Judd R-1 in PCGS MS-66 equivalent grade/quality, which is usually one grade increment below condition census most of the time. I consider this conservative but assuming it's "ballpark" accurate, that's at least 1250 with noticeable multiples for MS-64 and MS-65.
If most collectors collected in a vacuum where they ignored the price of comparatively priced alternatives, it would be one thing. The evidence indicates that buyers of condition census grades do. It also happens on occasion with (slightly) lower quality and specialization, but not otherwise.
The current PCGS count in MS-68 is 41. Gradeflation? I don't know. Some duplicates? Maybe, but the count is not low for a condition census grade.
My assumption is that the dates closer to the start of SQ were saved in much higher number and remain better preserved which many others probably also assume and which leads them to believe that the current count is subject to increase.
“The current PCGS count in MS-68 is 41. Gradeflation? I don't know. Some duplicates? Maybe, but the count is not low for a condition census grade.”
Gradeflation is the “wild card” that the OP hasn’t taken into account in all the prior predictions and assessments here. I recently watched a modern coin add about $18,000 to its resale price (sale over sale) due to just a 1 point upgrade. You don’t need to find new coins for future pop tops if the old coins work just fine. 😉
Wondercoin.
OP - in guessing your age from your posts, I don't see you being around long enough to realize the anticipated glory of your moderns.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
ouch
The demand is there but there is no supply. If someone wants a nice MS-66 of a date where MS-68 is pop top there will be a few MS-67's floating around but finding them is difficult because they are inexpensive and few in number. But MS-66 is so far out of the money that it's not worth the cost of grading but they can be quite elusive. In some cases even MS-65's will be tough. If you pay a few dollars extra there's a tendency to get something less than you pay for and I know of nobody who advertises to sell the second tier coins ungraded. I've been selling these for 10 or $20 each and they're actually fairly popular. I think a market could be made in them but then where does the supply come from?
There are a lot of factors working against these markets and new demand but it's my contention that this is exactly why the demand has been increasing so slowly all these years. The existing and growing demand is all grass roots. It's caused by many hundreds of people working modern collections buying mostly sight seen and ungraded coins. These collectors are at manty levels from needing mostly MS-66 quarters to trying to upgrade all their dimes to at least XF.
Millions of folders and albums have been sold for moderns and there simply aren't enough nice coins to fill them up with chBU or even nice AU's. The supply is insufficient to support a mass market but these things have a way of working out. Eventually collectors will all realize the price guides have no meaning except in MS-60 and even this has no meaning because there is no wholesale market for MS-60.
There are probably about 40,000 eagle reverse clad quarter collectors now days. This number is still growing rapidly but more importantly, existing collectors are becoming more knowledgeable and sophisticated every day.
Such is life. I've been waiting a very long time and none of us has unlimited time. I often call myself the 4th clad coin collector.
I expected the market to develop in the '70's or 1980's and it just never did. But then there could be a "perfect storm" of inflation and exploding demand. It doesn't matter as much to me any longer but I'd love to see more people enjoying these coins and knowing my coins are bringing enjoyment and education to future collectors.
I don't think that's how it works. If there was a ton of demand, either the prices would dramatically rise, or the supply would increase to meet the demand. All factors point to clad non top-pop coins having low demand.
Then prices would be higher.
If finding them is difficult, that's because buyers aren't willing to pay enough to encourage those who own them to sell.
That's pretty much it. Numismatics is a relatively free market- supply and demand at work.
I've cherrypicked a couple dozen 1970 small date Mint sets over the years and sold 'em all as the variety doesn't do anything for me. Same situation applies to the '70-S small date proof sets. One very interesting and somewhat impressive variety is the 1970-S Small/Large date proof cents. Those I like. Cherrying these was not difficult in the time frame you mention and before, especially the Mint sets.
I think you are missing the OP's point. You can't buy the plastic because of the cost of the plastic. It's not that there aren't 66 coins out there and not that there isn't demand for 66 coins. It's that no one is going to pay $35 to slab 66 coins because it isn't a $50 coin.
If buyers won't pay what it costs to get the coins into plastic, there really isn't demand, is there?
edited to add... Well, there is demand, just no supply. And therefore, no market. Demand at a price so low that nobody will provide supply is still demand, but it's pretty much irrelevant, though.
Try to put together a set of clad Washington quarters in AU. It's impossible. Lol
I also just don't share cladking's enthusiasm for future demand. There may be 40,000 collectors, but 35,000 may be roll hunters who won't pay more than $1 for anything.
Are you still making the same price forecast you did the last time you started a thread on this topic?
If you do not remember, I will point you to it.
If you aren't, then what exactly are you predicting now?
I'm not aware of a single series where the demand is the number implied by the OP. I've estimated 2MM collectors in the past, depending upon someone's definition of "collector". If it's in this vicinity, the preceding classics might have 50,000 to somewhat over 100,000 each. Lincoln cent and Morgan dollar with more.
In the 1960's, the overwhelming percentage were at FV or nominal premiums.
You're missing my point.
The '72-D quarter is minimally available in rolls and they aren't too bad. But this supply is extremely weak exactly like all clad quarters. It's not nearly as tough as the 1971 and is much tougher than the '80-D which is also scarce in rolls. Most '72-D in rolls that haven't gone bad yet are MS-63 to MS-64. There are too few in MS-65 and higher to be significant. Mint set coins come extremely nice with about 8% in MS-65 and higher. 66's are very "common" and this date mint set is not badly corroded. Attrition on the date is very high but not as high as earlier dates. This leaves thousands and thousands of nice MS-65+ to MS-67-. Very common for a clad quarter. It is the poster child of common MS-66 clad. A quick search turned up only about 10 specimens available for sale ranging in prices from $7 to $45. God knows what this coin is worth but I sell ungraded MS-67's for $15 to $20. With the very weak demand if it could be applied to this coin it is probably about a $5 coin in MS-66.
These that are for sale are just coins that the submitter expected a higher grade but most are selling for less than the grading fees. OBVIOUSLY MS-66 quarters don't have a negative value. You can't take a $20 holder and insert a -$10 coin to sell at $10. The coins are worth at least 25c whether WCC thinks so or not.
The demand is simply not being expressed in the market for the reasons already cited but principally because the price guides dramatically underreport the value. Collectors are very timid in paying $50 for a coin Redbook lists at $5. The '72-D is listed at a top price of $4 and this is the same source that lists old wheat cents at prices that are several multiples of what you can get at wholesale. All the old coins are listed at far higher than market but '72-D quarters are listed at $4. I only buy a Redbook at about 40 year intervals.
If you can't price a '72-D quarter then how does a collector buy one? This is what I mean when I say much of the market is sight seen.
Not every MS-66 or MS-65 modern is as common as the '72-D. Some are tough in nice attractive MS-64 but you can't tell this from any price guide and no modern has a negative value.
I should have paid a lot more attention to proof sets than I did. But I'd spend hours in the coin shop pouring over mint sets and just never seemed to have the time to check proof sets.
“OP - in guessing your age from your posts, I don't see you being around long enough to realize the anticipated glory of your moderns.”
Isn’t that often the case? Justhavingfun predicted for years - excused me- DECADES- that the United States Philippine coin market would explode in value. The only bi-National coins in our Country’s history. He passed away at the end of 2018. The market EXPLODED in early 2020!
It was my great honor to work with him and my son Justin in 2018 in preparing a series of Articles on the USPI market. I think we got through 3 or 4 of the 18 articles we penciled out in our heads and then he passed away unexpectedly. The articles we finished are all published on this site under “United States Philippines”. We had planned 13 or 14 more articles to be written and published in 2019 and 2020. Justhavingfun never lived long enough to see his vision fully materialize.
JHF was the only collector in history that owned the finest known 1894-S Dime (that he sold for just under $2,000,000.00) and the Unique 1907 United States Philippine Peso that he sold for an undisclosed sum to a board member here the year before his death. Even ELIASBERG was never able to own the 1907 Unique Peso in his collecting career and he owned a spectacular collection of USPI coins in his time.
CladKing will likely never see his vision of “moderns” (1965-date) fully materialize either and, to be frank, neither will I. But, you can rest assured he will be remembered for his unwavering position on these great coins!
Wondercoin
I started my set in 1996 when the states quarters became "apparent". It is almost complete but a few dates are high end XF's. I've rejected upgrades in some cases because the coin was ugly, poorly struck, or had other minting issues such as being made by highly worn dies. I've gone through about 10 rolls a month for many years.
It's getting decidedly difficult to put together a nice attractive VF set. A lot of the key dates are rarely seen and tend to be culls or full of dings from counting machines. Some common dates like the '84-P are tough because the low rims allow excessive damage and lots of dings. You can find an XF easily enough but it won't be pretty.
A lot of modern collectors are novices, outside the mainstream, or unsophisticated but they are learning every day and their ranks are growing. The number has doubled in the last five years. I simply expect the rate of increase to increase. Partly I expect this because it's in the interest of the hobby but mainly I expect it because every day the coins in circulation (especially quarters) get more and more interesting. The coins are also getting tougher. There are rare coins in circulation and some of these will be collected more widely as time goes by. There are still 25,000 or so type h '72-D quarters for instance. Most of these are in horrid condition but nobody saved them in unc so WYSIWYG. How many of these will be found before the quarters are retired or the last '72-D is worn away or lost?
Tag... Very interesting I just don’t have time for the whole book tonight.
quietly tiptoeing away now to go to check my 69s and 96s.
As wondercoin and his daughter have showed... just keep looking and you will be rewarded.
It takes a religious zeal to follow the modern path.
You are not buying my avatar for $30 nor do I submit MS66 quarters.
Alot of ways to play the modern game...
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That's the impression I get.
Collecting moderns is similar to the way baby boomers collected back in the early-'60's except we now go through mint ands proof sets instead of rolls from the bank. There were potentially valuable coins in circulation in those days and little did we realize most of the good coins had been removed by the end of WW II.
But herein is the point of the thread; the raw material modern collectors use to find their Gems is never going to be so readily available again. This has been somewhat true for several years because the sets are corroding but now with the wholesale price at more than double face value we'll have little choice but to buy graded coins or raw coins at a substantially higher price. This is because demand has finally exceeded supply. Supply has been decreasing sharply for half a century while demand is increasing exponentially but from a very low level. As coins disappear from the market there will be no supply of overhanging supply from which to restock. Indeed, most dealers don't maintain a stock at all. There is no supply from which they can acquire a stock in case there is walk in traffic demanding moderns.
Without this overhanging supply it is too late for some big dealer to try to acquire a position and disrupt the market. Moderns should be relatively speculator free for some time though, obviously, if prices soar dealers will get speculators to buy "rare" MS-65 '72-D quarters in quantity to "put away for the future". No one will be touting the rarities because they can't get them. Nobody has quantities of things like '69 MS-65 quarters because they were too difficult to find even in 1969 and so many are tarnished now.
If it's a religion, it's just that old time religion back when every coin didn't have to be purchased from a dealer. Perhaps no one found salvation in "holy rolls" but there is a lot of satisfaction in finding scarce and desirable coins on the cheap.
"Indeed, most dealers don't maintain a stock at all."
Dealers will stock coins they have buyers for.
"There is no supply from which they can acquire a stock in case there is walk in traffic demanding moderns."
Sure there is- from the people who currently own them. Offer them enough for the coins, and some of them will sell.
Interesting thoughts presented here.
Makes me want to just look thru the early mint and proof sets that I have stashed away, for some reason or other. I guess that since I don't sell coins, that I am now considered a "COIN HOARDER".
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
Utterly ridiculous. I never claimed what you said even once.
Exactly my point; if buyers do materialize there is no means to stock thousands of dealers. There's no apparent means to prime the pump.
Again, most of the mint sets have been destroyed. The coins from them aren't sitting in collections, rolls, or dealer stocks; they are in circulation. Tens of thousands of sets like "kennedy halves" or "lincoln cents" have been assembled from mint sets and sold to the public but these sets are usually low quality, low value, and sold outside normal numismatic venues. I wouldn't expect to see lots of these streaming into coin shops no matter what.
Almost all the supply of moderns IS mint and proof sets and they are now mostly unavailable because of tarnish and much higher prices on good sets. This especially applies to mint sets. The premium on something like a 1974 mint set has gone up 20 fold virtually overnight. I'm predicting the new higher offer will get very few sets. It will be interesting to see what the response is. I'm expecting higher offers for BU rolls because these made from mint sets exist whereas nice mint sets barely do. If I had any pristine early sets I'd be sitting on them. After 1980 the tarnish is not nearly so ubiquitous.
Aside from current mint issues, there is no "coin warehouse" dealers can order whatever they desire from. They acquire the coins they sell from various sources as best they can to stock the coins their customers want today. They aren't going to stock coins in the hopes that customers might, some day in the future, materialize and ask for them.
Ok- so the gems you seem to be worried everybody is overlooking don't exist. What's the problem again?
“The premium on something like a 1974 mint set has gone up 20 fold virtually overnight.”
The highest bid in the country I see right now is $9 for this set. The set contains $3.83 of face value. Hence, the premium to face value is a mere $5.17 over the past 47 years. The cost on the set from the US Mint in 1974 I believe was $6.00. If the “premium” went “up 20 fold virtually overnight” that means the premium was about 25 cents for 46 years!! But, the Mint charged a premium of $2.17 back in 1974! 😝
If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1974, you would have about $14,807.57 at the beginning of 2021, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 14,707.57%. If you invested the same $100 in these 1974 mint sets in 1974, you would have about $150 right now. Again, $150 value in these Mint Sets today vs. $14,807.57 in the S&P 500. Stock analysts- please double check my math.
Just keeping it real with my 2 cents!
Wondercoin
edited to add... I just raised my bid to $9.25 for this set to become the new high buyer in the land. It can’t underperform the S&P forever! Can it? 😂
P.S. so far in the random test starting this week, I bought:
(4) 1969 “fresh” mint sets
(6) 1970 “fresh” mint sets
(0) 1996 “fresh” mint sets
Tossed in the 1970 date just to make the comparison even more interesting. See a previous posting above of mine for context.
Price guides are obsolete. You keep using this as a explanation but there is no reason to expect any price guide to be accurate. Why would you think it would be for US moderns when it isn't for hardly any other coinage? This coinage sells relatively frequently. Anyone can get an indication of the actual approximate value with a five minute search on eBay or adding a few more minutes searching Great Collections and Heritage.
The amounts discussed in your examples are an alternative to consumption which most people don't give a second thought, even if not affluent. It's a recreational expenditure.
Not to mention, the coins being discussed (high grade/gem/top pop moderns) are not the kind of coins people depend on a Redbook for in order to figure out how much to pay.
It's more than that. An example was given of a $4 catalogue value when the coin is worth $50. I have seen PCGS MS-66 1982 quarters sell for $22 on eBay or 3X (and maybe more) than that. Also seen ungraded coins sell for more than $22. This is typical, not unusual. It happens all the time.
Coins do not have fixed value but a value range.
Days of Raw Moderns Not Over
1969
1972-D
1982
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
@cladking said:
There were 311 million 1972-D quarters minted. It seems unlikely to me that 310.9 million of them will disappear.
They don't have to disappear. It's been 50 years. What percentage of them have worn down below AU? Have you seen how many slick SLQs and Barber Quarters there are?
Tough to know the answer to that. On the plus side, you can buy an uncirculated piece today, still in mint set plastic, for around $2.50.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think these are exactly rare now or anytime soon. But you don't need 310.9 million of them to "disappear" for the population to have dropped.
I don't think you need to look farther than the price of UNC 1940s Merc dimes and most UNC SILVER Washington Quarters to make a case that there is no need for the clads to make a major move up.
You're thinking in terms of mintage rather than the number saved.